Andrew Murawa is an RTC contributor.  He will analyze the West Region throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Throughout Monday, we’ll be releasing our Bracket Prep analyses of each of the four NCAA Tournament regions.  The order will be as follows — please check back throughout the day for all four (all times eastern).

• West – 9 am
• Southeast – 11 am
• Southwest – 1 pm
• East – 3 pm

Region:  WEST

Favorite: #1 Duke (29-4, 13-3 ACC). They shouldn’t be regarded as a big favorite here, but given that the school that is the #2 seed here has never won an NCAA Tournament game, and the #3 seed if coming off five games in five days, the ACC Champion should again be a favorite to reach the Final Four.

Should They Falter: #2 San Diego State (32-2, 14-2 MWC). Provided the Aztecs can notch their first ever Tournament victory, things set up pretty nicely for them. Their experience with Jimmer Fredette should give them confidence in a potential matchup with Kemba Walker and Connecticut in the Sweet 16 round, and if they see Duke in the regional final, they’ll be the most  athletic team on the court.

Grossly Overseeded: #8 Michigan (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten). The Wolverines bounced back from a six-game losing streak in January to win nine of their last 13, but for a team that figured to be on the bubble going into the Selection Show, an eight seed is shocking.

Grossly Underseeded: #4 Texas (27-7, 13-3 Big 12). Saying Texas is “grossly underseeded” is grossly overstating it, but I’m having a hard time seeing anybody else in this region that is underseeded, and Texas at least has an argument for getting a #3 over a team like BYU. However, a 4-4 record down the stretch turned a team that was in the conversation for a #1 seed in late February into a #4 seed with a tough road ahead.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): #13 Oakland (25-9, 17-1 Summit). The Grizzlies feature future NBA big man Keith Benson on a veteran team that is playing in its second straight NCAA Tournament. And Oakland won’t be fazed by playing a major conference team like Texas, as they played the 4^th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation, and even knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville in mid-December.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): #5 Arizona, 27-7. Wildcat forward Derrick Williams is on the very short list of the best players in the nation, and if Sean Miller can get production from a couple of other players on his roster, guys like Momo Jones, Solomon Hill or Kevin Parrom, this Wildcat team could be a tough out. However, if they’re going to get to the Final Four, they’d potentially have to go through Memphis, Texas, Duke and San Diego State or UConn to get there – in other words, they’ll have to earn it.

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1. With the new broadcast arrangement between CBS and Turner Sports most of you probably have a ton of questions about what they are doing with our beloved NCAA Tournament. Richard Deitsch has the answer to at least a dozen of them including the all-important question of which games Gus Johnson is scheduled to call in the opening round.
2. While most of the nation was fixated on the announcement of the NCAA Tournament brackets there was also some other tournament news as the NIT, CBI, and CIT announced their fields. You already probably know most of the NIT field (think every team that was whining about getting snubbed a few hours ago). The one thing that stood out to us was the NIT committee putting Harvard as a #6 seed. We never bought the possibility that the Crimson could be an at-large team, but saying that there were at least 20 teams ahead of them that got left out of the NCAA Tournament seems absurd. The CBI field (bracket here) is notable for having Oregon (playing on its infamous home court in the opening round), Davidson, and Central Florida (winners of this year’s award for biggest disappearing act). The CIT field (schedule here) is only notable for having Northern Iowa in it. The NIT does offer a few intriguing match-ups and could be interesting if the “snubbed” teams stop feeling sorry for themselves and try to show the NCAA Selection Committee that they said that they made a mistake. As for the CBI and CIT feel free to check them out if you really need a college basketball fix.
3. There was plenty of news around the country on the coaching front as several coaches were let go. The most notable in terms of potential impact is Arkansas firing John Pelphrey who leaves behind a solid incoming class of recruits to a new coach. It appears that the Razorbacks are targeting current Missouri coach Mike Anderson to replace Pelphrey. If they are unable to land Anderson, who spent 17 years at Arkansas as an assistant to Nolan Richardson, then they are expected to go after current Marquette coach Buzz Williams, who also has some ties to Arkansas.
4. Few individuals in college basketball had as good of a day yesterday as USC coach Kevin O’Neill did. Not only did his Trojans get into the NCAA Tournament albeit into one of the play-in First Four games, but O’Neill was also reinstated by the university after his run-in with an Arizona booster in a Los Angeles hotel bar before the team’s meeting in the Pac-10 Tournament.
5. Washington reinstated Venoy Overton for the NCAA Tournament after suspending the senior point guard for the Pac-10 Tournament. Overton had been suspended after the Seattle city attorney charged him with providing alcohol to a minor. Overton is expected to play against Georgia on Friday, but it will be interesting to see how the Charlotte crowd, which should have a heavy UNC bias, will react to Overton in light of some of the speculation surrounding the incident that led to the charges particularly if Washington advances to play UNC in the second round.

RTC is pleased to announce that we’ll be covering all of the major conference tournaments this year — the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC — in addition to the strongest two high-middies, the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West.  Each day for the rest of this week, we’re asking our correspondents to provide us with a Daily Diary of the sights and sounds from the arena at each site.  Equal parts game analysis and opinion, the hope is that this will go beyond the tiresome game recaps you can find elsewhere and give you an insightful look into Championship Week.  Yesterday’s coverage:  ACC, Atlantic 10, Big Ten & SEC.

ACC Tournament – by Kellen Carpenter

• Early in the game, during a media timeout, one of the North Carolina cheerleaders lost her balance and fell down on the male cheerleader who was trying to hold her up. She ended up busting either his nose or lip and proceeded to bleed all over himself, the fallen cheerleader and the court. It took some extended minutes for the glove-wearing bio-hazard team to find and clean up all the blood. It was that kind of day for the North Carolina team and fans.
• There was buzz more than an hour before tip-off and it grew steadily from there. The crowd was full of North Carolina partisans, but Duke has had the second most fans here all week. The stands were filled and the crowd cheered frequently and often. While the crowd was excitable and loud, the game lacked the rancor of the two previous Duke games. My favorite part about the crowd, however, were the proud representatives of the teams who had already fallen. Clemson sweatshirts and Virginia Tech hats abounded amongst the faction of spectators who often refused to cheer for either team.
• Nolan Smith may not have had the gaudy offensive performances of Kemba Walker or Jimmer Fredette this week, but his performance on the offensive end has been spectacular and his performance on the defensive end has won the Blue Devils games. Just as Smith disrupted Virginia Tech’s offense by neutralizing Malcolm Delaney, Smith made the Tar Heel offense grind to a halt with his aggressive defense on Kendall Marshall.
• In the past two games, Marshall was slowed down and rendered ineffective as teams have discovered the key to stopping him. Marshall is slow and needs space to make passes or drives. Aggressive, close defense on Marshall prevented him from scoring and making plays. Smith came out on Marshall as soon as he got across the half court line and challenged Marshall to try to get past him or pass with heavy pressure. It worked. Marshall had five turnovers to only five assists. He went 3 of 10 from the field. Marshall’s ability to make plays has been the driving force behind this Tar Heel team. Stopping Marshall is the key to stopping North Carolina, and unfortunately for the Heels, it’s now painfully clear how this can be accomplished.
• The Comeback Kids couldn’t find one more miracle. After the game, Roy Williams said he didn’t understand why UNC had continually fell behind early in their tournament games. I’m not sure either, but I have some guesses. Roy’s insistence on getting early touches for the big men makes UNC’s offense incredibly predictable at the beginning of games. By refusing to shoot threes early in the game, Roy has made it easy to clog the paint and focus in on UNC’s focus.
• Ryan Kelly, despite looking like a very tall version of Neville Longbottom, has actually settled into a nice impersonation of Manu Ginobili as a big man, or maybe Andrei Kirilenko when he came off the bench. In the sixth man role, Kelly played the fourth most minutes for Duke tonight and had a very impressive all-around game. In addition to nine points and three rebounds, he contributed three blocks and three steals on defense and served as a more reliable scoring threat than either of the Plumlees. This new role suits Kelly, and Coach K said he believes that Kelly has played the best basketball of his life in these past three days. In any case, it’s one more nasty surprise Duke has in store for it’s opponents in the NCAA Tournament.
• Watching Duke play it was almost inconceivable to me that a Duke team that so effortlessly ran the table in the conference tournament and only had four losses, none of them bad over the course of the season, might not be a number one seed. They are playing some of the best basketball in the nation this past week, as they have all season.  I understand that many teams have a better collection of “best wins,” but Duke is a seriously dangerous team that has gotten better over the course of the season.
• The last thing that really stood out throughout the course of the tournament was how much Greensboro, as a city, seemed genuinely excited to host. The way that every single business I saw had some sign or deal for ACC fans, the fact that the ACC Hall of Champions stands right next to the Greensboro Coliseum, and just the general excitement about town paints a picture of a place that really, really cares about hosting conference tournaments. It seemed like these were most important days of the year for Greensboro, and that’s a real credit to an otherwise small and sleepy city in North Carolina.

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It’s only been a little while since the brackets were released.  Here are our initial Quick n’ Dirty thoughts before we’ve had too much time to over-analyze it and talk ourselves out of things.

1. UAB & VCU over Colorado & Virginia Tech? Jay Bilas nailed it in the post-selection analysis when he said that the Committee not only failed the “eye test,” but they failed the “laugh test.” Hey, we’re all for more mid-majors in the Tourney as a matter of principle.  But they should be qualified, and UAB and VCU simply were not as accomplished as Colorado or Virginia Tech this season.  As a matter of fact, VCU was so sure that they weren’t going to make the field of 68 that they didn’t even gather to watch the Selection Show — can you imagine?  Colorado defeated K-State three times, Texas once and Missouri once; Virginia Tech defeated Duke, Penn State and a host of mid-level teams — UAB beat… um, nobody?  VCU beat… UCLA?  It just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
2. How Does This Happen? The NCAA Selection Committee went against its stated principles in selecting UAB and VCU over other, more qualified teams, which is something we think is a direct result of the Committee changing members every year.  A lot of the talking heads on television have suggested adding more “basketball people” to the Committee, but where we think the system fails is because there’s a rotating group of folks picking the teams every year.  This results in RPI being valued extremely high one year, and generally ignored in another year; or playing a tough nonconference schedule is preferred one season, and lightly considered in another.  This results in a completely different interpretation of the stated criteria every single March, which causes a series of perplexed looks among all the bracketologists and fans this time of year who are generally basing their analyses on previous years.
3. Gene Smith Interview Fail.  The CBS interview with the Chair of the NCAA Selection Committee, Gene Smith, was epic in its complete and utter failure.  This shows yet another reason that the Committee should not rotate people through it so frequently.  His vague platitudes were generally incomprehensible, but he actually managed to make mention of “style of play” as a consideration that the Committee considers when looking at whether to select teams.  Surely he’s joking, right?  When asked specifically about Colorado’s resume, he answered by stating that the Buffs simply “did not have the votes to get in.”  In other news, neither did John McCain two years ago.  For such a multi-billion dollar event that captures the imaginations of a national sporting public, we HAVE to do better than this, don’t we?

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For all of us around here, it’s Christmas, our birthday, graduation and St. Patty’s all in one — Selection Sunday.  A true national holiday.  Let’s celebrate with some analysis and chat throughout the show this evening.  Join us!

A huge weekend of tournament action around the country knocked out another wide swath of teams from the national title picture.  As it stands now, we’ve got a total of 77  teams left in our circle.  After Sunday evening, of course, it’ll be down to 68.

It’s our third season of running the Bracket Nonsense pool and we’re hoping to see every single one of our Twitter followers in this year’s contest.  Here’s the relevant sign-up information.

Name:  RTC 2011 Bracket Nonsense
Group ID#:  65846 (there is no password)

We always try to tie in our prizes to the location of the Final Four — you certainly recall that two years ago in Detroit we offered an American-made jalopy, and last year in Indianapolis the prize was a Hickory High letter jacket (word to Howard Hochman) — but other than oil, it’s not so easy to come up with a basketball-oriented prize associated with the great city of Houston, Texas.  So we got creative and decided to honor the venue by harking back to one of the more creative nicknames for a team that the sport has ever seen.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Sunday, 4:10 PM ET.

First 4 Byes: Illinois, Colorado, Penn State, Michigan.

Last Four In: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia.

First Four Out: Saint Mary’s, Southern California, Boston College, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Kansas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, North Carolina, Connecticut
  
• 3 Seeds: Florida, Texas, Louisville, Kentucky
• 4 Seeds: BYU, Purdue, Syracuse, Wisconsin
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Xavier
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Washington
  
• 8 Seeds: Utah State, Temple, George Mason, Tennessee
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, UNLV, Richmond, Gonzaga
  
• 10 Seeds: Florida State, Marquette, Villanova, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Penn State
• 12 Seeds: Memphis, Michigan, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Long Island
  
• 15 Seeds: Akron, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, UNC-Asheville, Hampton, Arkansas Little-Rock, UT-San Antonio, Alabama State

• Despite Duke’s ACC Tournament title, in a head-to-head resume comparison with either Pittsburgh or Notre Dame, the Big East duo prevails. Two of Duke’s wins over NCAA Tournament teams came with Kyrie Irving. Duke has substantially less RPI top-25 and top-50 wins and their best road victory on the season is Maryland. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame finished 1-2 in the best conference in recent memory. I could see Duke get the final #1 just as they did last year over a Big East team (West Virginia), but if they do it’s the second straight year it’s undeserved.
• Kentucky moves up to a #3 seed with their SEC Tournament win. They’re playing at a very high level and the committee will have noticed, thrashing both Alabama and Florida. The Gators remain as a #3 seed with their commendable body of work.
• Richmond moves up to a #9 seed with their Atlantic 10 Tournament win. No bid stealer today. Georgia is my last team in the field.
• I have a hunch that St. Mary’s will sneak in over one of the ACC or SEC teams, but I can’t include them purely based on a feeling. Frankly, there’s no argument for St. Mary’s over Georgia. The only argument to leave Alabama out is their horrid non-conference. St. Mary’s has one win over the RPI top-50 and it came in November. That doesn’t cut it.
• Kansas is my #1 overall seed. It doesn’t really matter. They’ll go to the San Antonio region while Ohio State goes to Newark regardless.

Game #220: The eyes of the college basketball world are on Indianapolis for other reasons, today. But first, there’s the small matter of the Big Ten Tournament title game.

Here’s the biggest reason why this will be an interesting one: Ohio State knows its status. It’s not just a 1-seed. It’s the 1-seed. Even a loss here won’t change that. They’re playing for the right to print t-shirts, cut nets, and to take home that big brass and wood trophy sitting about 30 feet from where I type this. Penn State is playing for all of that, and maybe even their Tournament existence. Can the Buckeyes avoid playing this game without one eye focused on a bracket that’s being pieced together mere minutes from here? You know where the Nittany Lions’ focus is. Join us just before 3:30 PM ET as we see how it plays out.

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Game #219.  The top two programs in the SEC meet on Sunday afternoon with a championship on the line.

In yesterday’s semifinal matchup with Vanderbilt, Florida guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker took over in the second half to recover from a 12-point deficit.  The two guards shot a combined 8-15 from behind the arc, an uncharacteristic number from a pair that often struggles from three.  The team as a whole shot 11-21 from three.  The Gators had to make a second consecutive second half comeback to get the win.  Kentucky on the other hand easily cruised past SEC West leader Alabama, leading at one point by as many as many as 26.  Kentucky Coach Calipari shrugged the performance off as one of those days where you just can’t go wrong saying, “We’d have smacked anybody the way we played today.”  He also expressed his displeasure with Kentucky’s seven turnovers saying that only having seven turnovers is a sign his team isn’t playing fast enough.  Not a lot of coaches out there demanding more turnovers.

Today in the SEC Championship we have the two best teams in the league.  They split wins during the season with the home team winning each time.  These two programs have learned a special disgust for each other.  Yesterday during the Florida/Vanderbilt game a picture of Joakim Noah was displayed on the giant screen as the SEC Tournament stars were honored.  That picture caused loud boos from the many Kentucky fans in attendance, so many that they drowned out the Florida cheers.  This should be an exciting matchup.  Kentucky wins it 71-68.

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