Rush The Court

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every Friday until Madness ensues.

You know we’re headed to the stretch run towards March Madness when Bubble Watch debuts here at Rush the Court. Let’s go through all six major conferences plus those non-BCS contenders to determine who’s safely in the field, who still has work to accomplish, who’s sitting firmly on the bubble and who needs to rack up the wins to be dancing when the brackets are determined. Without further ado:

ACC

Locks: Although the massive jumble in the middle of the ACC does include Duke, they are still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils feature an RPI/SOS in the top ten and quality wins over Clemson, Arizona State, Connecticut and Wake Forest. Still, it has to be concerning for Coach K that it’s mid-January and his team is 0-3 in true road games.

Should be in: I’d be surprised if Clemson at 15-4 (3-2) and a #30 RPI didn’t make the field. After welcoming Duke into town Saturday night, the Tigers will have moved past the hardest portion of their ACC slate into a stretch of four of six at home with Maryland, Florida State, Miami and Virginia making a trip to Littlejohn Coliseum. Mixed in there is a trip to BC and a more difficult roadie at Virginia Tech. By definition of the phrase, Georgia Tech “should be in” given their talent level and quality wins in ACC play. But I’m weary given this team’s capabilities of playing down to their opponent. They’re helped strongly by an RPI and SOS in the top 30.

On the bubble: Wake Forest is looking more and more like an NCAA team with a #25 RPI. They also just survived the Duke/UNC road swing with a split while two wins- vs. Maryland in OT and at Gonzaga in December- could loom large as we head towards Selection Sunday. Maryland is still working to boost a lackluster RPI and lack any semblance of a signature win during non-conference play. They must take care of business against NC State and Miami at home before embarking on a Clemson/FSU road swing that should test their mettle. The win at Georgia Tech gave Florida State a nice boost in their first ACC game, but they promptly blew that by falling to NC State at home. The Seminoles only played one NCAA team (two if you include Florida) in non-conference play and was blown out against Ohio State (#117 overall SOS). They need to finish 10-8 in the ACC and gather another signature win over Duke, Clemson, North Carolina or Georgia Tech to feel comfortable. Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’m sure they’ll turn it around once Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller return. Still, at 12-7 (1-3) and an RPI in the 60’s, Roy Williams is starting to feel the heat. Lose at NC State next Wednesday and things could really collapse.

On the fringe: Virginia is the feel-good story in the ACC in Tony Bennett’s first season, but I’d be shocked if the Cavaliers made the tournament. They lost out-of-conference to bottom feeders South Florida, Penn State, Auburn and Stanford and have benefited from a favorable first three games in ACC play. It’s going to take an 10-6 mark in the ACC to dance. Miami (FL) was quickly determined to be a fluke after compiling a lofty record on the back of a non-conference SOS in the 300’s. They were just swept by BC to fall to 1-4 in the ACC and need a gigantic turnaround for Frank Haith to avoid the hot seat.

Big East

Locks: Plenty of locks and elite teams at the top with Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh all feeling comfortable. While the Florida and North Carolina wins during pre-Big East play look less and less impressive for Syracuse, they still boast the #1 RPI in the nation and an abundantly favorable conference slate the rest of the way with only one difficult road contest at Georgetown. I’d be stunned if the Orange are not a #1 seed come March. Villanova has the lone unblemished mark but still has to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. A split should be enough for #1 seed contention. Georgetown picked up a huge victory at Pittsburgh behind Chris Wright this week. They have a chance to make inroads as a #2 seed if they can upset Syracuse and beat Duke at home. Pittsburgh’s incredible sweep of a Syracuse-Cincinnati-Connecticut road swing should prove invaluable in terms of seeding. West Virginia could pick up a nice resume-building win tomorrow with Evan Turner back for Ohio State.

Should be in: Aside from the five locks, there’s not much else to love about the Big East. Connecticut’s resume is strongly boosted by the #1 SOS in the nation. Still, unless Notre Dame makes the tournament, the Huskies still haven’t beaten a team that will be dancing in March. They have a golden opportunity tomorrow in Storrs against temporarily-top ranked Texas. Knocking off Texas would give Connecticut a signature win and move them closer to lock status with two tricky road games ahead against Providence and Louisville.

On the bubble: Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino’s team is looking more and more like a bubble squad with their loss at Seton Hall on Thursday. Louisville’s non-conference wins are even worse than UConn and the stench from the Charlotte/Western Carolina defeats still linger. Their #48 RPI is bubblicious with a crucial bubble game this Sunday against Cincinnati looming. Cincinnati at 13-6 (4-3) was one of my last teams in the field and the win over South Florida doesn’t change anything.

On the fringe: Notre Dame has a stretch ahead where they could enter the field. Aside from a road game at Villanova, six of their next seven are very winnable with DePaul, Cincinnati, South Florida and St. John’s coming to South Bend and road games at Rutgers and Seton Hall. They have a chance here to make a push, although the weak non-conference SOS doesn’t help the cause. I wouldn’t count Seton Hall out, either. They could still get to 10-8 in the Big East which would put them right on the bubble come Big East Tournament time.

Big 12

Locks: The #1 conference in terms of RPI features three locks to make the field- Kansas, Texas and Kansas State. All three teams have RPI’s in the top seven and have compiled some quality wins out of the Big 12. Kansas blew out Temple in Philly and downed California, Texas took down Michigan State, Pittsburgh and North Carolina while Kansas State quietly picked up wins vs. Dayton, at UNLV and vs. Xavier. All three of these teams could make the Final Four. Next big matchup: Kansas at Kansas State on 1/30.

Should be in: Missouri gets a brief reprieve with Nebraska at home before needing to show at least some fight at Kansas next Monday. The crucial stretch for the Tigers will be 1/30-2/3 when they welcome Oklahoma State and Texas A&M to Columbia in two battles of middle-of-the-pack Big 12 teams. Baylor showed the committee Wednesday night they could play with the big boys by challenging Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. Their #29 RPI is also solid and the Bears have out-of-conference wins vs. Xavier, at Arizona State and at South Carolina. They welcome Kansas State to Waco on 1/26 in an enormous game for their NCAA chances.

On the bubble: Oklahoma State has plenty to prove. They beefed up their record on a weak non-conference schedule and their Big 12 wins have come at home against Texas Tech and Colorado. With a #38 RPI, they absolutely have the capacity to make the tournament if they can pick up quality wins in the Big 12. I don’t expect any miracles at Kansas State or at Missouri, but surrounding those two road games are home opportunities against Texas A&M and Texas. Speaking of the Aggies, they’re also lingering around the bubble and didn’t impress against Oklahoma this week (although nearly winning at Texas should count for something). Again, that January 27 meeting in Stillwater is one of the most important early season bubble games on the slate. Their best wins came in November against Clemson and Minnesota.

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State at 16-3 (6-0) will begin to creep back into #1 seed discussion if they roll through a disappointing Big Ten. An upcoming stretch of six of eight conference games on the road- including trips to Minnesota and Wisconsin where visiting teams rarely win and one of those home dates with Purdue- should determine whether Tom Izzo’s team has the tools to contend for a top line spot. Purdue picked up a much needed road win at Illinois Tuesday and should be just fine. Their next four games are all extremely winnable before the anticipated matchup in East Lansing against the Spartans on February 9.

Should be in: There’s no doubt the committee will factor in the loss of Evan Turner when considering the defeats Ohio State took on the road at Butler, Wisconsin and Michigan. They’ve won three in a row since the no-show in Minnesota with defeats over Purdue and Wisconsin in the process. The Buckeyes do have wins against Cal and Florida State in non-conference play, but both of those squads are far from locks to make the tournament. Knocking off West Virginia on Saturday, a game I firmly believe Ohio State can win, would do wonders for their portfolio. Wisconsin should also be fine. They lead the Big Ten in RPI and SOS and the committee will consider the Jon Leuer situation. I don’t expect them to win at Purdue, but beating Michigan State in Madison would put the Badgers firmly into lock status.

On the bubble: Illinois benefited from just about the easiest start to Big Ten play humanly possible. Their 4-0 record is now 4-2 with a humongous road date with Northwestern upcoming this Saturday. The winner will likely be in my next bracket on Monday with the loser on the outside looking in. The non-conference road wins at Clemson and vs. Vanderbilt definitely helps Bruce Weber’s young Illini squad. Northwestern badly needed to knock off Purdue or they’d be at 1-5 in the Big Ten and in danger of keeping their unfortunate no-NCAA streak alive. If they can survive a difficult January, they should be favored in their first five games in February, giving the Wildcats a fighting chance. I expect Tubby Smith to find a way to get Minnesota into the field come March, but as of now the Gophers are probably on the outside looking in. That would all change with a win over Michigan State on Saturday.

On the fringe: Michigan had a golden opportunity to pick up a gigantic road win at Wisconsin this week, but poor shooting late and the stingy Badger defense prevented such happenings. After a disappointing non-conference season and setbacks at home vs. Northwestern and at Indiana, Michigan needs to make a run and quickly. I don’t expect them to win at Purdue, but opportunities are abundant in the next few weeks for the Wolverines with rival Michigan State and Wisconsin coming to town. Their #122 RPI means they certainly have a long way to go.

Pac-10

Should be in: There are no locks residing in the porous Pac-10 this season with California currently having the best odds of reaching the field. Their #24 RPI and #2 SOS are the only computer numbers from this conference that are impressive whatsoever and the committee will consider the Bears missing their best defender and outside shooter, Theo Robertson, for a good portion of non-conference play. Still, Cal is no lock to reach the field. They have a trying four-game road trip ahead through the Arizona and Los Angeles schools that may make or break the campaign. There’s an outside chance the Pac-10 Tournament will determine the one and only bid from this conference.

On the bubble: I’m a believer that Arizona State has staying power on the bubble scene. They’re first in the nation in PPG allowed and have some capable outside shooters. Plus, Herb Sendek can coach. Beating Baylor at home in December would have strengthened the Sun Devils cause. They end January with a winnable three-game homestand against Arizona, Cal and Stanford which would put Arizona State at 17-5 (7-2). Washington truly could not afford to lose last night at UCLA and their #65 RPI is nothing to be proud of. They need to make a push.

SEC

Locks: As long as they can take care of Arkansas at Rupp on Saturday, Kentucky will be ranked #1 in the nation. And consider this: they could very well be in position to keep that ranking until February 16. I know young teams are erratic and making projections can be a futile cause, but until their February 16 game at Mississippi State, Kentucky plays five home games and two roadies at South Carolina and at LSU, two squads that may not make any postseason tournament this season. While they do face Mississippi, Vanderbilt and Tennessee during that stretch, those games are in Lexington. What a story it would be if Calipari’s Wildcats are 25-0 in mid-February. Tennessee has also moved into lock status and they’re currently 5-0 without Tyler Smith. A tricky road game at Georgia looms tomorrow, but Tennessee is certainly making a push towards a #2 seed.

Should be in: Mississippi State has an impressive 15-3 overall record on the heels of a #139 SOS. Four of their next five are away from Starkville in a stretch that will determine whether the Bulldogs will trend more towards the bubble or more towards a top-six seed in March. I’m leaning towards the latter. Mississippi has four losses this season and three of them are to Villanova, West Virginia and Tennessee either on the road or on neutral floors. They’re a fringe top-25 team with tremendous guard play and solid computer numbers (#33 RPI, #53 SOS). Andy Kennedy should feel fairly comfortable. After a home date with Auburn, streaking Vanderbilt enters the most difficult portion of their schedule with two meetings against Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Georgia and home vs. Mississippi State. We’ll see where the Commodores stand in terms of seeding a lot clearer after that stretch.

On the bubble: Florida does have the Michigan State win in their back pocket, but not much else to like right now with a #69 RPI, #93 SOS and a 5-5 record since the Syracuse loss. They must sweep the next two at home against South Carolina and Georgia before looking to pull off an upset in Tennessee.

Others (a much busier group than in previous years)

Locks: BYU hasn’t lost since December 2nd at Utah State (a place where nobody wins) and their stock just continues to climb. This upcoming road swing through San Diego State and New Mexico will be challenging, though. Gonzaga’s ranking is a bit lofty, in my opinion, but the Zags certainly impressed by sweeping their biggest competitors on the road in the WCC. It’s not out of the realm of possibility Gonzaga could sweep the rest of their games and contend for a #2 seed. Temple continues to impress with their stellar defense in their dethroning of Xavier at home. Besides road games at Charlotte and Richmond, the remaining A-10 slate is quite favorable for the Owls. It’s their conference to lose. Northern Iowa already completed all their difficult road games in the MVC and could go on a serious roll. With a #18 RPI, they have the potential for a #4 or #5 seed in March.

Should be in: Dayton is a much better team than people give them credit for. Their four losses have all come in close fashion against Villanova, Kansas State, at New Mexico and at Xavier. I wouldn’t completely count them out of the A-10 race and they should feel pretty good with a #29 RPI. UAB avoided disaster by edging Southern Miss at home this week. The next four games against C-USA contenders will show if the Blazers are a team to be reckoned with. Butler pretty much whiffed during every opportunity (beat Turner-less Ohio State and Xavier, great) during non-conference play, but they’ll lose one game maximum in the Horizon and have a top-25 RPI and SOS. Siena is in a similar situation. If New Mexico can beat BYU at home this week, they’ll move closer to lock status. The loss at home to Utah is concerning, but UNLV did knock off San Diego State and New Mexico while nearly winning at BYU already this month. Xavier boasts an impressive #17 RPI and #3 SOS but just a 12-6 overall record. Beating Cincinnati and Dayton, plus acceptable and narrow losses to Baylor, Butler and Wake Forest, means the Musketeers should be dancing again.

On the bubble: Rhode Island looks pretty good for a bid with a #15 RPI and 15-2 record, but they truly only have one semi-quality win against Oklahoma State in a virtual home game. The Rams would love a split during their upcoming Xavier/Dayton road swing. It’d be ironic if St. Mary’s made the NCAA a season after Patrick Mills departs. The Gaels will likely lose in Spokane, but survive the rest of the slate and they look solid. Wichita State picked up an enormous home win over Northern Iowa and need to finish a solid second in the MVC to have a chance. Their RPI is at #44 and climbing.

On the fringe: Tulsa still has a ways to go before earning a spot in the field. Other than Oklahoma State they’ve whiffed on every opportunity for a quality win and the computer numbers are severely lacking. Same goes for Memphis and UTEP. Richmond was my last team in the field on Monday but likely fell out with the home loss to Charlotte. The Spiders did beat Wake Forest and Florida this season. William & Mary was crushed by VCU, and coupled with the UNC-Wilmington loss, it appears the CAA is a one-bid league. Cornell has wins over Alabama and St. John’s, but let’s face it: they need to edge Harvard and win the Ivy regular season title to make the field. Louisiana Tech has played a #257 SOS, something the committee will not ignore. They’ll need to win the WAC tournament.