GROAN… our post on this will be forthcoming immediately following this M5, but if your attention span is much shorter than our longwindedness requires, suffice it to say that the possibility of the NCAA Tournament expanding to 96 teams is a complete, unmitigated abomination. If you can find anyone in support of this idea other than coaches at mediocre programs and network executive types who are greedily trying to destroy the best event in all of sports, please send them our way for drawing, quartering and compulsory re-education.
This great piece by Luke Winncomparing offensive production as freshmen with recruiting rankings confirms what we’ve been saying for a long time — that the relative dropoff in talent between top 10 recruits and top 50 recruits is much larger than the drop between top 50 and top 100 recruits. The next step is to crosstabulate that data with team success to see just how impactful those numbers are with respect to wins and losses. Great stuff.
Jeff Goodman takes a look back at the last week with his Weekly Wrap. Mike DeCourcy takes a look at the week ahead. Seth Davis gives us his weekly Hoop Thoughts.
Former UCLA forward Drew Gordon did an interview with Fanhouse, and although much of this interview is whimsical, he did mention that “pigs will fly” before UCLA would keep the star player over the coach (Ben Howland) – an absurd question in its own right. Still, Gordon did confirm that he and Howland had serious differences which led him to leaving the program, and he didn’t let on where he might be headed next.
Six teams finished with 18 or more wins last season.
VCU’s Larry Sanders already picking up nation preseason honors here, here, and here.
Predicted Champion. Old Dominion (NCAA Seed: #9). The Monarchs return six players who made 13 or more starts last season, including All-CAA Gerald Lee, who is my vote for preseason POY. Lee stepped up as a leader last season, especially late in the year at the CAA tournament. Along side Lee forward Frank Hassell gives them probably the best one-two punch frontcourt in the league. Guard Darius James is poised for a breakout season and was deadly from 3-pt land last year, so his growth could be the key to ODU being the league’s most balanced squad. Add freshman stud Josh Hicks to the mix and you got a whole lot of talent walking into CAA arenas this season. Will it be the right mix of talent and experience to run through the competitive CAA regular season? Head coach Blaine Taylor has lived in the shadow of George Mason and VCU lately despite winning 119 games over the last five years. This is his best squad on paper since 2005.
Radford (#16, South, Greensboro pod)
vs. UNC (#1)
Thurs., 3/19 at 2:55 PM
Vegas Line: Radford, +27
General Profile Location: Radford, Virginia Conference: Big South, Automatic bid Coach: Brad Greenberg, 31-31 08-09 Record: 20-11 (15-3) Last 12 Games: 11-1, won 3. Best Win: At VMI, 97-90, on 2/21/09. Worst Loss: At William & Mary, 53-73, on 11/25/08. Off. Efficiency Rating: 100.5 (187th) Def. Efficiency Rating: 101.2 (165th)
Nuts ‘n Bolts Star Player(s): Artsiom Parakhouski (6’11” junior center), 16.3 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 1.5 blocks/game. Unsung Hero: Amir Johnson (5’9″ junior guard), 9.6 ppg/4.7 rpg/5.3 apg and plays most minutes/game on the team (36.3). Potential NBA Draft Pick: None yet — but Parakhouski’s big and you can’t teach size. Key Injuries: No significant injuries. Depth: 22.7% (320th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves Achilles Heel: Turnovers. Radford averages 16.1 turnovers/game, 313th in the nation. Will Make a Deep Run if…: They keep hitting the boards. The Highlanders are 4th in the nation in rebounding (37.9 r/g). Will Make an Early Exit if…: They don’t take care of the ball. Tough to beat higher seeds if you don’t score on as many possessions as possible.
NCAA History Last Year Invited: 1998 Streak: One year. Best NCAA Finish: 1998 First Round. Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): Not enough data (Minimum 8 bids)
Other Distance to First Round Site: 137 miles School’s Claim to Fame: It’s the first university in the state of Virginia to use wireless technology throughout its entire campus. School Wishes It Could Forget: Their only previous NCAA appearance 11 years ago? A 36-point pounding by Duke in a 1-vs-16 game. Prediction: First round and out. Major RTC stories:4 Tickets Punched, 61 To Go
Ryan Kish of George Mason Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA).
Power rankings:
Virginia Commonwealth (5-3)
George Mason (6-2)
Hofstra (6-1)
Northeastern (4-4)
Old Dominion (3-3)
Georgia State (3-5)
Towson (4-4)
James Madison (4-4)
Drexel (2-2)
UNC-W (3-6)
William & Mary (3-6)
Delaware (2-6)
Teams doing well
Hofstra: So far the Pride have been the surprise of the CAA posting a league-best 6-1 record. After losing a lot of scoring from last year’s team this team was difficult to project. They haven’t really beaten anybody worthwhile on the out of conference slate but they had a pretty decisive victory over Towson on Saturday to start off 1-0 in the conference.
Ryan Kish of George Mason Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA).
Predicted order of finish:
VCU
Northeastern
George Mason
Old Dominion
Delaware
Georgia State
Hofstra
James Madison
William & Mary
UNC-Wilmington
Towson
Drexel
WYN2K. Last season was a letdown for the CAA faithful after two seasons of multiple bids and tournament wins over historical powerhouses to becoming a single bid conference with that team losing in a first round rout. The 2006 and 2007 NCAA tournament victories from George Mason and VCU have set the bar for this conference so that now just getting to the NCAA tournament and avoiding a blowout isn’t the criteria for a successful season anymore. Last season George Mason looked as if they were riding that magic carpet again, running through the CAA tournament and snagging that automatic bid after a rollercoaster season, only to be sent home early from the Big Dance by the three point onslaught of Notre Dame. This conference returns 65% of its starters and has some exciting freshmen and transfers entering the mix, but are they poised for another successful March?
Predicted Champion. VCU (#10 Seed NCAA). Tough call this season, as always in the competitive CAA, but the pick has to go VCU. Last season the Rams were atop the conference standings all season, only to stumble in the conference tournament. The selection comes mostly because of the experience of head coach Anthony Grant and reigning conference MVP Eric Maynor, whose slaying of Duke in the 2007 NCAA Tournament might have just been a preview of things to come as he enters his senior year. Sophomore Larry Sanders is another name to watch for this Rams squad as a defensive force in the front court. Last season Sanders only started half of the season’s games yet led the team in rebounding (5.2) and blocked shots (3.0). Speaking of Maynor…
Others Considered. Not to be overlooked are the Huskies of Northeastern who return their entire starting lineup and top nine scorers from last season including Matt Janning who could challenge Eric Maynor for conference MVP. Old Dominion and George Mason have been very successful programs for the conference in recent history as both are well coached and can potentially challenge the likes of VCU and Northeastern. Make no mistake that this could be another season for the CAA in which an ankle sprain or two in March could determine the conference champion.
Newcomers. Last season Delaware was atop the standings for most of the season with the success brought on by transfers Marc Egerson (Georgetown) and Jim Ledsome (Nebraska) becoming eligible. Look for the same thing to happen at Georgia State this season. Head coach Rod Barnes (2001 Naismith Coach of the Year), who had to endure a season watching his reserve team of transfer players best his team’s current starters each practice, could be the CAA’s hot new coach this season. Georgia State returns all-CAA guard Leonard Mendez (16 ppg) who will be surrounded by big school talent with the additions of Trey Hampton and Xavier Hansbro (former player of Barnes at Ole Miss), point guard Joe Dukes (Wake Forest), forward Bernard Rimmer (Mississippi State) and guard Dante Curry (South Florida). George Mason and UNCW had the best recruiting success this past off-season. Mason was able to nab point guard Andre Cornelius and forward Ryan Pearson from the lure of the BCS schools while UNCW locked up forward Kevon Moore and guard Jerel Stephson. All of these are players that could be playing in bigger conferences and are likely the most Division I ready freshmen entering the CAA this year.
Games to Watch.
George Mason at VCU (01.24.09)
Northeastern at VCU (01.28.09)
VCU at Old Dominion (02.14.09)
Northeastern at George Mason (02.14.09)
Old Dominion at Northeastern (02.28.09)
RPI Booster Games. The CAA has had success in recent years against out of conferences foes, both mid-major and BCS. This season the conference favorites don’t have a whole lot of opportunity to make a splash early on but their definitely is some winnable games against some notable programs that could start the multiple bid talk early.
James Madison at Davidson (11.17.08)
Georgia State at Georgia Tech (12.17.08)
VCU at Oklahoma (12.20.08)
Winthrop at Old Dominion (12.20.08)
Northeastern at Indiana (12.22.08)
George Mason at Dayton (12.30.08)
Northeastern at Memphis (12.31.08)
Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. Fairly likely. VCU has a real chance of winning an at-large bid this season should they not grab the automatic bid from the conference tournament. Northeastern’s tough schedule could hinder them from a possible at-large birth. Starting at the end of November the Huskies are on the road five of six games before heading into conference play. Ouch. George Mason and Old Dominion don’t have much on the OOC slate which would mean they don’t have a lot of margin for error in the early part of their schedules. With the bottom half of the conference steadily improving, the RPI numbers could be good enough to get a team an at-large bid if they have between 14-16 conference wins.
65 Team Era. From 1987-2005, the CAA was a one-bid league. Of course, that changed in a big way in 2006, when two teams were invited to the NCAA Tournament and George Mason became the greatest Cinderella to make the F4 in history. Two more teams were invited in 2007, and while only George Mason was invited in 2008, there’s no reason to think that the CAA is not a conference generally on the rise. The CAA is 15-27 (.357) in the era, which definitely ranks it as one of the higher mid-major conferences. Hey, we gotta throw it in – this never gets old…
Final Thoughts. Last season proved that the depth of this conference is improving as annual bottom-feeders James Madison, Delaware and William & Mary all made noise at some point in the season. Look for that trend to continue as even the newest CAA members Georgia State and Northeastern could be contending for the top of the standings come March. That is not to say the big boys of the conference have declined. George Mason, VCU, Old Dominion, and UNCW all bring more talent this season than the conference has ever seen. The experience of the coaches on the sideline this season is a big asset for this conference and could spell trouble for opposing teams at the Big Dance. The team(s) that make it to the Big Dance this season could be poised for some not-so-much of an upset victories.
Story of the Night. Is the A-Sun the best conference in college hoops this season? Three nights after Gardner-Webb shocked the hoops world against Kentucky, and one night after Belmont whacked Cincy… the Mercer Bears went into LA and pushed around #25 USC and OJ Mayo. That’s three road wins against three BCS teams in the span of about 72 hrs (remember: the A-Sun was 0-34 v. BCS teams last year!) As for this game, sure OJ got his numbers (32/7/4 assts on 12-27 FG + 8 tos), and isn’t that really why he’s there? In shooting 59% for the game (led by James Florence’s 30), Mercer rode a 17-pt halftime lead into an easy win. We have a bad feeling that more of this is on the horizon for USC with Mayo running the show. We’re just sayin… (Mercer 96, USC 81)
Things We Didn’t See. #5 Georgetown appears to have had a shaky opening game against Bill & Mary tonight, leading by only 2 pts with under 10 mins to play. When the Hoyas finally realized they have something nobody else in CBB has – a skilled 7’2 center named Roy Hibbert (23/8/3 blks) – they put the game away. We love the Hoya backcourt of Wallace and Sapp (combined for 33/10 assts), but we’ll continue to have a lingering concern over the long-term prospects of this year’s version until we see if Dajuan Summers or someone else can adequately fill the departed role of Jeff Green (Georgetown 68, William & Mary 53). Staying in the Big East, Pitt is a team we never know what to make of from year to year game to game. Tonight they throttled a solid NC A&T team, with a big contribution from Sam Young (career-high 24/11/4 stls). We’re sure they’re on their way to another 20-25 win season and a top 4 seed, where we’ll either pick them to go to the E8 and they’ll lose in the first round; or, the reverse (Pittsburgh 86, NC A&T 61). Tubby Smith’s debut today at Minnesota went much as his debuts at Kentucky (88-49 v. Morehead St.) and Georgia (91-71 v. W. Carolina), with a blowout win versus an overmatched team. In typical Tubby fashion, the Gophers held Army to 35% shooting and forced 23 turnovers. One Gopher blog lauded the hustle and dedication from players that has been missing in recent years (Minnesota 84, Army 52). Over at Oregon, we were interested to see how the Ducks would respond to the loss of Aaron Brooks, and so far, so good, as a balanced attack quickly overwhelmed Pepperdine tonight. Malik Hairston, Tajuan Porter and Bryce Taylor all had 17 pts each as the Ducks raced out to a 30-pt lead at halftime and cruised the rest of the way – we likey (Oregon 100, Pepperdine 70). Vandy is an SEC team that we probably have overlooked this year, but the Dores picked up a solid win over a mid-major tonight by beating Austin Peay. Showing just how tough it is to beat Vandy in Memorial Gym once again, the Commodores shot 55% from the field and 52% from three in keeping AP comfortably at bay most of the night. Shan Foster (21 pts) and AJ Ogilvy (18/9/2 blks) led the way for Vandy, while AP star Drake Reed had a rough night (12/7 on 3-16 shooting) (Vanderbilt 81, Austin Peay 67). There was a great game tonight in Milwaukee when Marquette took on another talented mid-major, IUPUI. Marquette’s 8-pt halftime lead was quickly erased by a second-half 17-2 run by IUPUI, but spurred by Jerel McNeal’s 20 pts, the Warriors came storming back with a 23-8 run of their own to ensure victory (Marquette 76, IUPUI 68).
Score of the Night. Unbelievably, we’re going back to The Farm. For the second consecutive night, Stanford had a 30+ pt halftime lead over an opponent, and again, no starter played more than 20 minutes. Tonight’s beneficiary was Northwestern St. – what’s TJ giving those boys (Stanford 97, Northwestern St. 58)?
Upset Alert. Other than the above USC game, there were no big upsets today.
Joey Dorsey Award. OJ Mayo (USC). Not for his game tonight, but for his quote that hearing his name called in the starting lineup “was a lot of fun. I wish we would’ve won.” Maybe we’re being nitpicky here, but after getting thumped by Mercer, we’re not sure any part of the night should be remembered as fun.
On Tap Today (all times EST). 47 games on tap, several of which are worthwhile (assuming Comcast doesn’t screw us again and gets FC working).
Loyola (MD) (-5) v. Pennsylvania 12pm – our favorites in the Ivy and the MAAC.
Rutgers (NL) v. North Dakota St. 1pm – NDSU gave Florida trouble; they can do more than that with Rutgers.
Seton Hall (NL) v. Monmouth (ESPN FC) 1pm – um, we’ll be washing our hair at that time.
Virginia (NL) v. Vermont 2pm – don’t understand why this isn’t FC worthy but the garbage game above is.
Florida (-17.5) v. Tennessee Tech 3pm – really would like to see if Calathes can keep it up.
Gonzaga (-12.5) v. Montana 4pm – we’re very high on Gonzaga this year, but Montana is no slouch.
Stanford (NL) v. UCSB 6pm – if Stanford is up 30+ at half of this game, we’re putting them #1 in Monday’s blogpoll ballot.
Pittsburgh (NL) v. St. Louis (ESPN FC) 6pm – we’re tuning in just to see Majerus back on the sidelines.
Kansas (NL) v. UMKC (ESPN FC) 8pm – let the Kansas Kremations continue.
Oregon (NL) v. Pacific (ESPN FC) 9pm – both of these teams had great first games.
