Each week throughout the season, RTC columnist Brian Otskey (@botskey) will run down his observations from the previous week of college basketball.

Losing Streaks Not Uncommon This Time of Year

It is almost a yearly tradition: fans and the media freaking out over a previously undefeated or one-loss team losing a game or two, or three, or sometimes four, in January. This season has been no exception as the last few weeks have seen teams such as Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa State, Georgetown and Wisconsin hit the skids. The Buckeyes and Ducks have each lost four straight games after starting the season a combined 28-0. Iowa State was 14-0 before losing three straight over the course of the last week-plus. Georgetown was 3-1 in Big East play before suffering three consecutive defeats. Last but not least, Wisconsin, which had run out to an impressive 16-0 start, has suddenly dropped two in a row. There are a number of reasons why this happens. The first is statistical correction. Ohio State is a good team with a woefully inefficient offense; opponents were bound to begin figuring out the Buckeyes and hand them a few losses.

Joel Embiid and Kansas sent Iowa State to the second loss of its current three-game losing streak. (AP)

The same can be said for Oregon and its “Swiss cheese” defense getting exposed. The Ducks can score the ball for sure but it doesn’t matter much when you can’t stop quality opponents. Wisconsin is in the same boat, but not nearly to the same degree. The Badgers have not been defending nearly as well as they usually do and it cost them in recent losses to Indiana and Michigan. Speaking of scheduling, that is another reason why hot teams are prone to January slumps. As conference play takes hold, the opponents get better and there is so much more video to scout and expose teams. The schedule has caught up to Iowa State, which encountered a huge match-up problem in the frontcourt against Kansas and lost two road games to surprise Big 12 teams Oklahoma and Texas. Winning on the road is never easy, especially in conference play, as the Cyclones have found out. As for Georgetown, an injury to Jabril Trawick and an academic issue for Joshua Smith have picked apart the Hoyas’ rotation and made depth a major issue late in games. The Hoyas have blown second half leads in all three of their most recent losses. Read the rest of this entry »

If you hit the town Friday night to enjoy a few beverages or catch up on Oscar-nominated flicks and you missed the Horizon League/MAAC double-header on ESPNU, allow us to catch you up on a couple storylines that emerged from two excellent basketball games.

Alec Brown and the Phoenix can play with anyone this season. (Courtesy: Green Bay Athletics)

Green Bay has tremendous potential. Green Bay withstood another monstrous dunk  by Jerran Young to beat Wright State on Friday night and move to 4-0 in the Horizon League, marking its eighth straight win overall. Alec Brown and Keifer Sykes again led the charge for Brian Wardle’s club, combining for 42 points and controlling the game from start to finish, even as the Raiders made numerous mini-runs throughout the second half. Now 14-3 and with metric rankings that scream ‘dangerous mid-major’, it’s time to start asking the question: Just how high is the ceiling for the Phoenix? If the team’s recent play is any indication, the answer might be “really, really high” — as in, NCAA-Tournament-victory-or-victories high. For one, there probably isn’t another inside-out combination as productive and dynamic as Brown and Sykes at the mid-major level. Brown is a legitimate NBA prospect (scouts were in the building on Friday night) whose athletic, 7’1” frame and ability to shoot from the perimeter (50% from three) — when he’s not dominating the paint — make him unstoppable on most nights. Sykes, meanwhile, is a quick, explosive point guard whose skills as a distributor are surpassed only by his scoring prowess — he dropped a career-high 34 points against Milwaukee last week and had 32 against Wisconsin in November. The rest of the group — players like the athletic forward Greg Mays and rebounding/defensive maven Jordan Fouse — complete a Green Bay team well-rounded enough to sit 42nd overall in KenPom’s rankings, having already beaten ACC-contender Virginia and pushed Wisconsin to the wire earlier in the season. Sure, the Phoenix could go on to drop several Horizon contests, lose in the league tournament and miss the Big Dance altogether. But it’s just as easy to see this team winning the conference, embracing the role of disrespected underdog and pulling off an upset or two in March.

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It’s the third weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. With every team except North Carolina having played at least four ACC games, we will now be using conference games only statistics along with team rankings in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 15, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST).

Saturday – Pittsburgh (16-1, 4-0 ACC) @ Syracuse (17-0, 4-0 ACC) – ESPN (4:00 PM)

Syracuse’s C.J. Fair and Pittsburgh’s James Robinson Renew Their Rivalry in a New Conference.
(Photo: bigstory.ap.org)

The best match-up of the weekend is ironically between these two ACC newcomers. Something has to give as Pittsburgh is leading the conference with 78.5 points per game in ACC play, while the Orange have the stingiest defense, allowing only 50.0 points per game. As he has all season, senior Lamar Patterson leads the way for the Panthers, averaging 20.0 PPG in ACC games. He will probably match up frequently with Syracuse’s All-America candidate C.J. Fair (17.1 PPG) in Pitt’s man-to-man defense. The battle at point guard may decide the game as Syracuse’s freshman sensation Tyler Ennis faces off with Pitt sophomore James Robinson. In conference games only, Ennis leads the league in assists (6.5 APG) and steals (3.0 SPG), while Robinson has the ACC’s best assist/turnover ratio (16/2).

Stat Watch. Pittsburgh leads the ACC by a huge margin in field goal percentage in conference games at 51.6 percent, while Syracuse is 10th at 40.9. Ball-handling will be important as these are the top two teams in the ACC in steals. It will also be interesting to see how many three-point shots Pittsburgh tries against the Orange zone, as they are last in the league in attempts, while Syracuse allows more than any other team.

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1. Roanoke Times: I entirely overvalue Cadarian Raines‘s performance. I can admit it. I’ve seen flashes of potential — usually glimpses of a remarkably well-developed post game. It appears Aaron McFarling is on the bandwagon with me, but James Johnson isn’t as he’s sat Raines for the last two games. The question is why? Johnson claims it’s the players “ahead” of Raines, and that could be true but I think it has to be Raines’ attitude. Johnson knows he’s not going to win 20 games this season, with or without Raines, but  he also knows the culture he wants to build in Blacksburg. This just feels a lot like Coach K’s early season benching of Rasheed Sulaimon.
2. Sporting News: Speaking of Rasheed Sulaimon, Mike DeCourcy does a great job in this profile of the Duke sophomore. Sulaimon pointed to becoming the third “break down the defense” option this year, instead of last year when he was arguably the first. It’s interesting that Mike Krzyzewski appears to be meeting Sulaimon somewhere in the middle. A side product of his recently instituted “line changes” are some odd lineups. One includes Marshall Plumlee and Tyler Thornton, which leaves Sulaimon as the go-to player in those situations.
3. Winston-Salem Journal: Come for the brief profile of Arnaud William “Bill” Adala Moto; leave with an awesomely awkward Bzdelikian analogy.
   

   “I kind of likened it the other day to a bunch of chicken eggs. Some of the eggs start cracking, and the little chick pokes its head out and looks. Some of these guys have completely gotten out of their shell. Some of them, the shell is cracking, and their head is poking out. Some of them are still in it, playing. But my point is, they’re all starting to hatch — at different times — and slowly breaking out of that shell.”

   Clearly, Jeff Bzdelik has been working on his PR game. But seriously, Moto is a guy who plays like a great teammate. He just outworks opponents.

4. Tar Heel Blog: Speaking of PR game, North Carolina needs to up its version in a serious way. The university hasn’t looked good at all in its dealing with Mary Willingham’s allegations, and the fine bloggers at Tar Heel Blog have done a tremendous job covering the story. The interesting possible spin going on right now is that North Carolina claims 97 percent of admitted athletes during the past two years were above the testing levels that CNN and Willingham cited. What’s interesting is that Willingham’s numbers covered 2004-12. Does that mean her numbers are right and North Carolina has fixed its problems, or was the most recent data the most accessible? Good move by the administration to question the media (which is likely at fault anyways) instead of Willingham here.
5. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Virginia has played well but lost all (three) of its games against Top 25 opponents this season. But I’m not sure there’s much to be drawn from the Duke loss. Had the Cavaliers rolled over and lost by 15 instead of mounting a comeback in the last three minutes, I would be more concerned. By the end of the year Virginia will knock off at least one team in the national rankings assuming no one gets hurt.

Even after Monday night’s 69-65 loss to Duke, Virginia looks like it is built to stay near the top of the ACC for the rest of the season. On a night when Duke played inspired basketball and had the famous Cameron Indoor Stadium home court edge, it took a fortunate bounce on a Rasheed Sulaimon three-pointer to keep Virginia from starting the ACC season with a 4-0 record. In winning their first three games, including Saturday’s 76-45 stomping of N.C. State, the Cavaliers have been winning impressively, with a 22-point average margin of victory. Even in their closest win, a 62-50 victory at Florida State, Virginia held a 22-point lead with 11 minutes left in the game. Undefeated Syracuse is now the perceived ACC favorite, but Virginia is certainly playing at such a high level now that it too must be considered a serious contender as well.

Virginia’s Justin Anderson Blocks Ralston Turner of N.C. State In Cavalier Rout. (Ethan Hyman/AP)

Virginia has clearly turned its season around after a less than impressive December (2-3 record). The Cavaliers hit rock bottom in a 87-52 blowout loss at Tennessee on December 30. After using seven different starting lineups, head coach Tony Bennett has finally found stability with his current starting unit. Virginia is now 8-1 with a group featuring Mike Tobey and Akil Mitchell up front, with Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogden and London Perrantes on the perimeter. After a puzzling lack of production from Harris and Mitchell in the pre-conference part of the schedule, the two senior all-ACC performers have turned things around on and off the court. According to Bennett, “The Tennessee game was a wake up call [for Harris and Mitchell].” He was referring to the fact that the duo has recently taken responsibility for being better team leaders. Tobey has shown signs of fulfilling his potential as a low post scorer (16 points vs. N.C. State), and the versatile Brogdon has been more consistent, scoring in double figures in all four ACC games. The freshman Perrantes’ maturation at the point guard spot has also been a key to the Cavaliers’ recent success, with 16 assists against only five turnovers in conference play. Justin Anderson gives Virginia great energy and athleticism off the bench, and he can defend almost any position. Further quality depth comes from Anthony Gill and Darion Atkins on the inside, and Evan Nolte and Teven Jones on the perimeter. All in all, it’s a nice rotation that has jelled just in time.

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There’s a theme to the first four stories this week. They’re local pieces on the four teams that dismantled the ACC’s Big Four this weekend. All four lost for the first time in ACC history and they all lost by double digits. Oh, and Boston College won! So it was a big weekend all around.

1. Syracuse Post-Standard: Rumors started this weekend that Syracuse may be planning a new basketball stadium (though the rumors to just that and the plans are described as “preliminary”). For all its size, the Carrier Dome could use a major face-lift at minimum. It’s 33 years old and usually doesn’t get high marks from visitors. A new arena–designed with basketball in mind–could provide a recruiting boost. That said, when the dome is full it’s already a good attraction for recruits. I think Syracuse probably keeps the Carrier Dome until Jim Boeheim retires, but it makes sense that a new stadium is on the horizon.
2. Pittsburgh Tribune-Review: Lamar Patterson is continuing his poor man’s Oscar Robertson impersonation to start conference play. Right now he’s averaging more than 20 points, six boards, four assists and a steal in conference play. Not bad, especially considering his efficiency stats are off the charts thanks to above average shooting everywhere and a 2:1 assist-turnover ratio. Jamie Dixon called Patterson the most versatile player he’s ever coached. If his final numbers resemble his current ones, he’s a lock for first team all-conference and has a great shot at conference player of the year.
3. Shakin’ The Southland: Good look at Clemson‘s manhandling of Duke Saturday. Maybe the most interesting point Ryan Kantor makes is that Duke abandoned its 2-3 zone too quickly. The fact that Duke played the zone at all tells you all you need to know about the Blue Devils’ defense. Something hasn’t clicked with this Duke team. It’s really struggling with consistency away from Cameron Indoor. But give Clemson its due. Brad Brownell’s team is out-performing expectations by a lot. The Tigers are a very good defensive bunch, and KJ McDaniels is another all-conference contender (along with the conference’s best posterizer on both ends of the floor).
4. Richmond Daily Progress: Virginia finishes the Big Four beatdown dealers. The Cavaliers appear to have turned around their middling nonconference performance with three straight wins to start conference play. A big part of the new look Tony Bennett team? The resurgent frontcourt. Mike Tobey finally showed some of that potential that many pointed to while he was injured last season. NC State’s bigs looked overmatched all game. Now Virginia looks to continue its hot start with a trip to Durham where a very motivated Duke team (that has a habit of leaving the lane open) will be waiting.
5. Orlando Sentinel: Hold off on the Florida State panic buttons. After the ugly home loss to Virginia, Leonard Hamilton’s team did to Clemson what Clemson proceeded to do to Duke. In the same building. Then they took care of business at home against Maryland. This team is for real, and it’s because it plays defense. The Seminoles are very long and have the strength in the post to take risks on the perimeter. They also probably have a chip on their shoulder from last season’s skid. That should terrify the rest of the ACC.

It’s the second weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 8, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST).

Saturday – North Carolina (10-5, 0-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (15-0, 2-0 ACC) – ESPN (12:00 PM)

CJ Fair and the Orange Look to Add to North Carolina’s Losing Streak

Pomeroy Prediction: (#5) Syracuse 75-64 (#34) North Carolina

There’s some chatter that it would be typical of this year’s up and down Tar Heels team to pull off another monumental upset in the Carrier Dome. But North Carolina has actually been more consistent lately, only in a bad way. The Heels do not look like a confident team right now. Still, Roy Williams has shown in the past (including this season) that he can motivate a team out of a slump. At least they appear to have one clear advantage on the offensive end they could exploit – offensive rebounding. Unfortunately for the Heels, the same is true on the other end with Syracuse hitting the offensive glass hard this season. Taking care of the ball will also be crucial against the long and active Syracuse zone. It will be interesting to see how many three-pointers each team takes. Neither likes to shoot many, but they both allow opponents to fire a bunch. Finally, a good start by the Heels (see: the Michigan State game) is important, but with the way the Orange has come back from big early deficits, even that may not be enough.

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1. Gobbler Country: And I’ve fallen for SEO devilry! An article titled “Can Syracuse Go Undefeated” turned out to be an incredibly cautious Virginia Tech preview. But I’ll take a stab anyways: no. That said, the Orange may have a better chance than anyone originally thought in the preseason, but their home scare over the weekend against Miami proves that it just takes one off night against a good team (which is bound to happen). The ACC is weaker than expected this year, but Syracuse hasn’t played a murderer’s road of a schedule — I don’t see the Orange finishing with fewer than three losses in conference play.
2. Tar Heel Blog: Speaking of a game Syracuse might lose (and soon), North Carolina is heading to upstate New York this Saturday to play a game where anyone who claims to know the outcome is lying. Between Syracuse’s home court advantage and the Tar Heels’ frequent zone struggles, I’ll take Syracuse. But this article is about the recent national media attention on North Carolina’s academic issues. Since the New York Times put the program on the front page last week, Bloomberg, Businessweek and CNN have joined the hunt.
3. Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon is a more optimistic man than I. Somehow losing on the road to Pittsburgh by 20 made him more positive than when he was started league play with two straight wins. That game only made his team’s flaws seem more deeply rooted. His offense often stalls and struggles taking care of the ball; the defense is prone to giving up big runs (often thanks to the previous point); and, his best two players have a great habit of disappearing. I’m not particularly confident that the turnover problem will go away anytime soon, but he can try to run the offense in a way to force Dez Wells and Jake Layman to be more aggressive.
4. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Who’s ready for the inevitable Virginia egg-laying tonight at home against Wake Forest? The Cavaliers are trying to compete with North Carolina and Notre Dame for the ACC’s most volatile team. The fact is that Virginia needs to go undefeated at home in ACC play (with a good record on the road to boot) to stand a chance at making the NCAA Tournament. But that means they have to score enough points to win, and they may have to beat the Demon Deacons with Joe Harris at less than 100 percent. Flip the coin and you have a Wake Forest team looking for its second road conference win in the Jeff Bzdelik era. Should be fun to watch.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Robert Carter‘s injury sounds a lot worse than it did. Meniscus injuries are some of the weirdest injuries in sports. Sometimes players are back literally hours after surgery; sometimes not for months. Brian Gregory tabs Carter’s prospects of a return this season as “very doubtful.” Carter was a huge part of Georgia Tech’s rotation, and the team’s two offensive outings since losing him haven’t been promising. After posting an abysmal 87.0 points per 100 possessions against Maryland, the Yellow Jackets followed it up with a mere 92.9 points per 100 possessions against Duke’s porous defense. Both of their opponents also managed effective field goal percentages over 55.0 — that’s not a good look on either end of the floor.

1. Associated Press and ESPN: The new AP Top 25 poll isn’t kind to the ACC. Only Syracuse (#2) and Duke (#16) remain in the poll after North Carolina tumbled into the land of “others receiving votes” following its road loss to Wake Forest. That loss puts the Tar Heels at 7-4 against unranked opponents and an unbelievable 3-0 against ranked foes. Duke’s drop was historic, ending the Blue Devils’ ludicrous 122-week stint in the top 10. That’s the second longest streak ever (to UCLA, who managed to stick around for nearly a decade). The last time Duke wasn’t in the top 10 was November 2007. The new longest-tenured team? Michigan State at 16 weeks.
2. Streaking the Lawn: Virginia has three players battling injury following a win that finally seemed to live up to the team’s lofty expectations to open ACC play. The damage? Joe Harris is day-to-day with concussion symptoms and is still awaiting clearance to practice; Evan Nolte dislocated his finger; and Mike Tobey rolled his ankle. The last two are the kind of injuries that could become nagging snowballs as the conference season wears on, but Harris is obviously the player to watch. He can’t miss significant time, as the team has already dug itself a really deep hole in terms of its at-large resume.
3. Syracuse Post-Standard: We’re witnessing history this season! Tyler Ennis and Olivier Hanlan are already two of the top five Canadian ACC scorers of all-time. Hanlan will almost certainly pass Duke’s Greg Newton in Boston College’s next game (he only needs six points), and he should do it in fewer than half the games it took Newton. Ennis still has a ways to go to start climbing up that list, but he should get to fourth before the end of the season. He’ll have to stick around three years to make a run at the top spot though.
4. Winston-Salem Journal: Everyone — especially Ron Wellman and any relatives of Jeff Bzdelik — bookmark this article immediately. Dan Collins thinks Bzdelik’s game plan and play-calling played a significant role in the Demon Deacons’ Sunday upset over North Carolina. Joking aside, Wake Forest executed most of the game incredibly well. The Deacs didn’t fade down the stretch (apart from a bizarre couple of minutes where they let the Tar Heels cut the lead to a single possession), and they kept their heads cool in the face of pressure. I personally would credit Codi Miller-McIntyre as the reason Wake Forest looks like a new team this season, but Bzdelik may actually deserve some credit too.
5. Real GM: Cool look from Dan Hanner on how the top 100 RSCI freshmen are faring this season. Obviously Jabari Parker is fine (outside of South Bend). There’s a pretty significant drop after the top 10 (all of whom are scoring in double figures except for Kentucky’s Dakari Johnson). But there are some serious diamonds in the rough (if you can call “not top-20” rough). Tyler Ennis and Cat Barber stick out from the ACC, while Duke’s Semi Ojeleye and Matt Jones along with North Carolina’s Isaiah Hicks are seeing low production so far.

1. Winston-Salem Journal and Raleigh News & Observer: In honor of Wake Forest‘s best win of the Jeff Bzdelik era, here are a couple of posts on the Demon Deacons. Dan Collins gives some context to the Wake Forest-North Carolina rivalry (and a good reminder of how awesome Randolph Childress was). Speaking of Childress, I can’t help thinking he’s played a role in Codi Miller-McIntyre‘s leap this season. He also should prove an asset recruiting, as he seems to have the charisma Bzdelik is missing.
2. State of the U: Good catch-up with Miami assistant coach Michael Huger on where the Hurricanes are and where they need to improve in conference play. Huger pointed to the team’s need for a leader to step up, also saying “Davon Reed is trying to emerge as that guy.” The fact is this team has a ceiling because of its youth and its talent (though I–and Syracuse–underestimated them coming into conference play). But if Jim Larranaga and his staff can get this group to start gelling, this will be a strong core to build around going forward.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Bad news out of Atlanta as Robert Carter Jr. is sitting out indefinitely to undergo knee surgery. Brian Gregory noted the time table could be anywhere from a few weeks to a few months depending on the severity of the tear. The news is a particularly big blow because Carter obviously worked hard in the off-season to improve his conditioning, which will suffer with an extended time away from the team. Carter’s absence will most affect the team’s proficiency on the boards and protecting the rim as his likely replacement Kammeon Holsey is a significantly worse shot-blocker.
4. Charlottesville Daily Progress: North Carolina isn’t the ACC’s only puzzling team: Virginia is also a total enigma. The Cavaliers don’t have any really good wins (well, at least they didn’t until dismantling Florida State in Tallahassee), but they’re statistically solid (35-point beatdown to Tennessee notwithstanding). While I had no idea what to think of the Tar Heels coming into the season (or now), I felt positive that Virginia would be a contender in the ACC. The team’s non-conference schedule all but emptied its bandwagon, but the win against the Seminoles has me with one foot back in.
5. Durham Herald-Sun and CBS Sports: Good story from Steve Wiseman on Andre Dawkins, who’s earned his spot in Duke’s rotation not just with his lights out three-point shooting but also an improved presence on the defensive end of the floor. Dawkins still isn’t a good defender, but his effort and execution are vastly improved over previous seasons. Also while on the subject of the Blue Devils, I think Coach K made the right call benching Jabari Parker. Yes, Parker was the best player on the floor, but he had been forcing things all night, and it’s important for him to understand when to take a step back. That said, in the future (especially more important games), I think Parker should stay in because he’s the best player on the floor and opposing teams will have to guard him as such.