RTC is reporting from the East Regional in Washington, DC, this weekend.

Three Key Takeaways.

The Boeheims, All Smiles in Washington Tonight

1. The Elusive Forty-Point Barrier. For the fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament game, Syracuse hit the 10-minute mark of the second half with its opponent having failed to score 40 points — Montana had 20, California had 31, Indiana had 37, and Marquette had 28 at that point. It’s very difficult to win games against quality competition when there’s a lid on the basket for most of the game, but make no mistake, these are not coincidences. The Syracuse 2/3 zone is playing as well as any defense in the NCAA Tournament right now, and for all but a short period during the first half when Davante Gardner found a seam in the zone at the foul line for a few jumpers, there simply wasn’t anything open for Marquette throughout. The Golden Eagles shot a putrid 12-of-53 from the field (22.6%), its worst shooting performance of the season, which included a bricklaying 3-of-25 (13%) from distance. Marquette hit its first and last three of the game, but sandwiched in between those two makes were a whole bunch of bad misses. The looks just weren’t there.
2. Marquette Made a Great Run. The Golden Eagles had a poor shooting game today, but Buzz Williams’ program took another step forward in making the Elite Eight and proving again just how good of a coach he is. They very easily could have lost either of their first two games at the subregional level, but they were able to get past both Davidson and Butler before a dominant Sweet Sixteen performance against Miami (FL). Williams spent a lot of time in the postgame press conference talking about the love he has for his players and the team chemistry that they’ve build up throughout the season. It’s clear that he’s a coach that the players really believe in, and he manages to get the most from his group every year as a result. Much like another prominent program in the great state of Wisconsin, it might be time to start slotting MU into the top tier of the Big East regardless of the talent that Williams has at his disposal. The program is in fantastic hands.
3. It’s the Zone, Stupid. Not to beat a dead horse here, but the Syracuse zone is playing as well as head coach Jim Boeheim has ever seen from his players. With the size and athleticism at the top of the zone from Michael Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche, open shots are very difficult to find. Through the four games of the NCAA Tournament, teams are hitting a collective 35.8% from two-point range and a ridiculous 15.4% from three-point range. Even if the Orange themselves are not making shots — like tonight when they hit only 38.0% from the field — they’re always going to be in good shape because of how difficult the zone is to solve. Both Michigan and Florida are well-coached and filled with shot-makers, but we’re having trouble seeing how either backcourt will be able to find openings any more than the Indiana or Marquette guards were. It says here that Louisville may be the only team still playing that has the personnel and the know-how to beat the SU defense.

Star of the Game. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse. The Syracuse point guard and East Region Most Outstanding Player had an all-around great floor game, scoring 12 points, grabbing eight rebounds, dishing out six assists and notching five steals. Most importantly, though, MCW played under control and only committed a single turnover. In his 75 minutes of action here in Washington, DC, over the weekend, the sometimes-wild Carter-Williams coughed up the ball three times. If he continues to play like that on the offensive end, Syracuse is as likely a team as any to win the 2013 national championship.

All-East Region Team: Davante Gardner, Vander Blue, James Southerland, CJ Fair, Michael Carter-Williams (MOP).

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After Thursday and Friday night’s games, the Circle of March is looking quite sparse. Starting with 310, there are now only eight schools with a shot at a national championship. Who will it be?

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.28-29.13)

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RTC is reporting from the East Region semifinals in Washington, DC, this weekend.

Syracuse Got to the Rim Repeatedly Tonight in DC

1. The Syracuse Zone Just Shut Down the Nation’s Best Offense. According to KenPom, Indiana came into today with a 122.8 offensive rating, the best in the country. IU also averaged 78.6 points per game this year, a statistic that put the Hoosiers among the top handful of teams in college basketball. This evening? At the 10:00-minute mark in the second half, the Hoosiers had a total of 37 points, marking the third straight game that the Orange had held an NCAA Tournament team (Montana and Cal) in the 30s or below. The fact of the matter is that no team, not even one the quality of Indiana, can adequately prepare for the albatross-long arms of the Syracuse zone and the athleticism of their interior people. Every shot within the arc was contested — the Orange ended up with 11 blocks — and the great equalizer of the three-point shot was cut off as well — IU shot 3-of-15, including an oh-fer from Jordan Hulls.
2. Cody Zeller Was Exposed. We noticed this during last weekend’s Temple game as well, but Zeller has trouble finishing plays inside against long and athletic forwards. This shouldn’t come as any surprise to anyone, as it’s as elementary a concept as there is in college basketball — it’s difficult to score over long athletes. But Zeller has a tendency to make himself smaller by contorting his body so that it’s parallel with the ground, and even when he goes straight up to the rim, it hasn’t been with authority. Syracuse blocked or got a piece of six of Zeller’s misses tonight, and you had better believe that NBA scouts will be reviewing the tape of his last two games in particular to get a better sense of whether Zeller has the toughness and the explosiveness to finish at the rim in a league where everyone is a long athlete.
3. Bad Syracuse Only Made a Brief Appearance. If Syracuse is to win three more games to give Jim Boeheim his second national title, they’ll obviously have to keep playing exceptional defense in the same way that they did tonight. The recurring issue with this team has been what might endearingly be called “losing their minds” for large stretches of games. We saw it in the final three minutes of the California game last weekend, where the Orange blew a comfortable late lead to give the Bears a chance. We’ve seen it multiple other times this season as well. Except for a very brief stretch in the early part of the second half tonight, though, the Orange avoided that particular calamity here — MCW only had a single turnover, and while Brandon Triche (six) and CJ Fair (four) had way too many of the team total of 15, there weren’t enough of them in a row to give Indiana the lift it needed to make a substantial run. The closest the game ever got in the second half was a six-point margin at 38-32, but a layup on the other end allowed the Orange to race right back out to a quick double-figure lead. Bad Syracuse probably only appeared for a couple minutes tonight, and the team will need to keep it under wraps in order to push to the Final Four and beyond.

Star of the Game. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse. Given that his family has been dealing with a tragic fire at their home in the Boston area this week, it was a reasonable question to ask whether MCW would be fully focused on the game tonight. Needless to say, he seemed more locked in than he has for most of the season, scoring 24 points, grabbing six rebounds and four steals, but most importantly, only committing a single turnover. When MCW is on his game, Syracuse is very tough to beat.

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RTC is reporting from the East Region semifinals in Washington, DC, this weekend.

Marquette Fans and Their Interesting Wardrobes Move On…

1. Marquette Played Like It Has Been Here Before. This is Buzz Williams’ third straight Sweet Sixteen with the Golden Eagles and it showed. Two years ago, Marquette got creamed by North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen; last year his team competed better against Florida before the Gators pulled away and won by 10 points. This time around, it was Williams’ group that came into the regional as the experienced squad — key players such as Vander Blue, Jamil Wilson, Davante Gardner and Chris Otule had already been to the Sweet Sixteen twice before, while not a single player on the Miami roster had such great experience. Preparation, of course, is key, but the mental game can almost be as important as the physical one. Marquette played with a poise and focus that belied its status as the underdog here tonight.
2. These Golden Eagles Are One Resilient Group. Marquette made it a point to punch the Hurricanes right in the mouth from the opening tip and it worked. Their game plan was quite clearly to out-tough Miami to the ball and to find the big men inside off dribble penetration and ball reversals. The Golden Eagles only took a total of six three-point attempts all evening (making three), bolstering the point that they thought the weakness in the Miami defense was on the interior. Keeping in mind that the Golden Eagles lost two second round draft picks in Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder last season, the ability for Marquette players to get better year-over-year and keep the program not only relevant but improving is phenomenal. Most people who know the sport of college basketball recognize that Williams is one of the best coaches in the business, but with a run like this (again), it’s time for the rest of America to start to notice.
3. You Gotta Make Shots. It’s a simple-sounding proposition, but Miami started cold, played cold, and finished cold tonight. A 20.7% first half was followed by a better 47.1% second half, but many of those makes came after the game was out of reach. The Hurricanes ended with a 34.9% shooting night, with the backcourt of Shane Larkin (4-of-8), Durand Scott (3-of-13), Trey McKinney-Jones (3-of-10) and Rion Brown (2-of-12) really finding a miserable existence throughout the game. Jim Larranaga said afterward that his team was out of sync all night and that his team didn’t “look like [them]selves” due to a number of external factors.

Star of the Game. The Marquette Big Men. Maybe Miami’s Reggie Johnson was missed after all. The trio of Chris Otule, Davante Gardner and Jamil Wilson consistently found themselves in good position to receive passes near the basket and convert them. They combined to score 41 points on 15-of-25 shooting from the field, grabbed 15 rebounds and only committed three fouls. None of the three were dominant, but Miami had no answer for pushing them away from the basket and keeping them quiet, either.

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Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g. 

It is no secret that the Hoosiers won the Big Ten title and secured a #1 seed because of their two star players, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo. Oladipo proved to any casual hoops fan last weekend that he is arguably the best player in the country by drilling a three to push the Hoosiers past an inspired Temple team. Tonight, the legendary Syracuse 2-3 zone defense will focus on preventing Zeller from receiving the ball in the high post and Oladipo from getting past the initial layer of defense to split the zone. It is almost insulting to call Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls as “X-factors” against Syracuse but if they can combine for close to 25 points, the Hoosiers shouldn’t have any trouble beating the Orange.

Jordan Hulls (center) and Christian Watford (right) will play a big role for the Hoosiers this weekend. (Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)

Watford’s block of Anthony Lee’s dunk attempt last weekend was overshadowed by Oladipo’s subsequent three but it set the stage for the final possession against Temple. There aren’t many “stretch” power forwards in the game who can challenge the zone like Watford. Tom Crean may use Watford to feed the ball into the high post from the wing because he has the size and length to pass over Michael Carter-Williams, and if the zone collapses on the catch, then Watford is open to drill a three (48% 3FG). The 2-3 zone also lets opposing teams dominate the offensive glass as Syracuse ranked 13th in the Big East in opponents’ offensive rebounding (36.2%). Watford will have plenty of opportunities to crash the boards through the backdoor and pick up some easy buckets there as well. The key to beating the zone is to be patient and smart with shot selection and this is the time when Watford’s combination of tools and experience should pay off.

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Tonight we tip off the Sweet Sixteen with games from the East Region in Washington, DC, and the West Region in Los Angeles, CA. Here are the breakdowns for tonight’s games.

#2 Miami vs. #3 Marquette — East Regional Semifinal (at Washington, D.C.) — 7:15 PM ET on CBS.

Let’s Hope Buzz Keeps This in the Closet If He Makes the Elite Eight

Two coaches and teams that have significantly overachieved this season collide in tonight’s first regional semifinal game in our nation’s capital. Marquette has been the quintessential “survive and advance” team through its two games of this NCAA Tournament having gotten by Davidson and Butler in thrilling fashion. In this match-up, the Golden Eagles will have to overcome some notable disadvantages coming in to it. Even though Reggie Johnson will not play for Miami, he hasn’t been playing all that well of late so his loss isn’t a huge hit for the Hurricanes. Marquette is a team that thrives off of dribble penetration and offensive rebounding so Jim Larranaga’s game plan will no doubt focus on that. Buzz Williams doesn’t have the three point shooters needed to open up his offense, one that is highly dependent on Vander Blue and others creating and getting into the paint. If Miami defends the paint well, can keep Marquette off the free throw line for the most part and win the turnover battle (Marquette averages 14 per game and Miami is #18 in offensive turnover percentage) it should win the game. However, it’s not always so simple. In addition to the dynamic Blue, Jamil Wilson could be a very difficult match-up for Miami. Wilson is a bouncy 6’7 player who can create off the bounce and isn’t afraid of contact around the rim. He could be Marquette’s most important player in deciding the outcome of this one. The intangibles in this game strongly favor the Golden Eagles. It hasn’t just been in this tournament but Marquette has a ton of experience playing in and winning close games over the last few seasons. This team knows how to win and make plays in big moments down the stretch and that becomes such a valuable asset in the NCAA Tournament. We think Miami’s game against Illinois, where the Hurricanes were pushed a bit, was a good thing but it could be only a matter of time as the Hurricanes lack of tournament experience catches up to them. This may be the game as the pressure and scrutiny ramps up, especially against a team with so much experience in one or two possession games. Although this appears to be a good match-up for Miami on paper, there’s a reason why they play the games. The Golden Eagles may come away with another squeaker of a win.

The RTC Certified Pick: Marquette.

#2 Ohio State vs. #6 Arizona – West Regional Semifinal (at Los Angeles, CA) – 7:47 PM ET on TBS

The Thad Matta/Sean Miller backstory gives this matchup plenty of pizzazz, but even without that part of the story, this is quite a battle. You can just run down this game matchup by matchup and find plenty of compelling storylines. At point guard, the Mark Lyons vs. Aaron Craft face-off alone makes this a must-watch game, with Craft one of the nation’s most disruptive perimeter defenders and Lyons one of the most dangerous offensive players off the bounce. While Lyons has the reputation of a guy who is a killer in the clutch, he’ll need to play within himself against Craft and make sure not to force too much against his pressure. Meanwhile, on the other side of the court, Lyons is no slouch on defense himself and Craft an improving, but still somewhat limited scorer. You could do worse that spending the entire 40 minutes of action just watching those two go at it. Elsewhere, the next biggest potential matchup is DeShaun Thomas and Solomon Hill. Thomas is the Buckeyes lone pure scoring threat and Hill will certainly be guarding him for much of the game. Thomas has got a pretty complete offensive game, with range from three, a solid pull-up game off the bounce, some post-up ability and the ability to get on the offensive glass. But, luckily for Arizona, Hill’s defensive versatility can match Thomas’ game, as he’s as comfortable guarding in the post as he is away from the hoop. On the other end of the court, Thomas’ defensive game has improved, but he’s still a long ways from a defensive stopper, although depending on the matchups on the court, he might not be the guy tasked with checking Hill. Arizona doesn’t necessarily need Hill to outscore Thomas in this matchup, but if he can take him out of his comfort zone, OSU will have to count on other less polished scorers to have big games. And there are other great matchups all across the court. Nick Johnson is Arizona’s best perimeter defender and he could take a crack at anyone from Craft to Lenzelle Smith to Shannon Scott, even to Thomas for a stretch if needed. In the paint, Arizona’s three freshman bigs have been playing well of late, but they’ve got big physical veteran Bucks ready to bang with them all day long. And then there are X-factors like Kevin Parrom and LaQuinton Ross. Parrom, a senior, has turned into an excellent third-scorer for the Wildcats, while Ross is starting to live up to the high expectations he earned back in high school. All over the rosters there are strength-on-strength battles, leading me to believe that when we come out of the final media timeout, we’ll be in a dead heat. In that situation, give me the team most capable of putting the ball in the net in a variety of ways. And in this case, that is the Wildcats, with Lyons, Hill, Parrom and even Johnson and Grant Jerrett all capable of filling it up.

The RTC Certified Pick: Arizona

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Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g. 

The Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t lost since February 17 when they took a shellacking in Madison, but since that debacle they have ripped off 10 straight wins and have arguably been the hottest team from the Big Ten. Junior guard Aaron Craft is creating a new role for himself by controlling games in the critical minutes and proving that he isn’t afraid to take the big shot. But standing between the Buckeyes and another Final Four is an equally hot Arizona squad who has won two NCAA Tournament games by an average 20 points. Can the Buckeyes get past Sean Miller’s Wildcats? Let’s assess two key factors that will determine the outcome of the game.

Aaron Craft will be tested by Arizona’s Mark Lyons on Thursday. (Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch/US Presswire

• Craft will have his toughest defensive assignment so far this season. Craft defended quality point guards in the Big Ten such as Trey Burke and Andre Hollins but he may have an even tougher time defending Mark Lyons. Lyons has the ability to take anybody off the dribble and Miller likes to call isolation plays for him at the top of the key during the final minutes of the game. Even though he only shoots 33% from beyond the arc, confidence is not one of his weaknesses because he will pull the trigger at any time. He’s also been scorching hot in the NCAA Tournament so far, averaging 25 PPG. Craft did an effective job on Burke but the Michigan guard settled for a number of long jumpers in both games against the Buckeyes. It will be interesting to see if Craft will have anything left in his tank this week during the last six minutes of the game after exhausting most of his energy trying to lock down Lyons. The Buckeyes’ recent wins have been a direct result of Craft impacting the game offensively, but this match-up will certainly test his stamina.  Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Two rounds of NCAA Tournament play have come and gone. Favorites have flopped, upsets have left bracket-wielding fans frustrated everywhere and Florida Gulf Coast is in the Sweet Sixteen. That last one still doesn’t register; how does a team that gained full Division I postseason eligibility just this season, with an entrepreneurial and supermodel-boasting wife in tow pushing them along the whole way, knock off, in sequence, National Player of the Year and projected lottery pick Otto Porter, then follow it up by utterly demoralizing Jamaal Franklin and San Diego State?

Of all the interesting storylines heading into the Sweet Sixteen, none is more captivating than Florida Gulf Coast (Getty Images).

Everyone will have their eyes on FGCU to see what happens next, naturally, but the next round of bracket proceedings, the Sweet Sixteen, offers more than one team, one storyline, one Brett Comer lob, to watch. Here are 16 items, one specific to each team, to keep an eye on — with the common denominator of shining a new analytical light on each match-up. If Florida Gulf Coast has already revolutionized everything we’ve come to know about today’s scoring-averse, slowdown, micro-managed game, where does that leave us – the humble writers who serve to clarify, in long form, what you see on the court – in attempting to understand the remaining rounds of this Tournament? Onward:

1. Is Louisville The Best Thing On The Block? It sure looks that way, and that’s without even seeing Louisville come up against a team capable of challenging Russ Smith and Peyton Siva on the perimeter, of pulling Gorgui Dieng away from the basket, and decoding Louisville’s No. 1 efficiency defense. Colorado State was the closest thing, and the Rams were hopelessly overmatched on both ends of the floor. The Cardinals got the good side of Russ Smith in that match-up, scoring 27 points and committing just one turnover, and when that happens and Louisville maintains its trademark stingy point-prevention, Rick Pitino’s team is tough to beat. The question is whether Oregon, criminally underseeded as a #12, can use its bruising defensive style to counter the Cardinals’ championship formula. Louisville has done nothing thus far to refute its national frontrunner status, and unless Ducks coach Dana Altman can poke holes in U of L’s defensive fortress with Damyeon Dotson and E.J. Singler on the perimeter, and Arsalan Kazemi keeps up his insane rebounding pace (he’s averaging 16.5 boards per game in Tournament play), the Cardinals will maintain that status and waltz into the Elite Eight undeterred.

2. The End Of Ohio State’s One-Dimensional Scoring Problem.

For most of the season, behind Ohio State’s plainly suffocating perimeter defense, headed by one rosy-cheeked point guard roundly regarded as the nation’s best on-ball defender, lay an offense with one glaring problem: DeShaun Thomas was doing everything. For as devastating as Thomas can be, and as versatile as his scoring arsenal has become – Thomas is just as quick to camp out on the perimeter as he is to back down an opponent in the post – the Buckeyes needed a reliable ancillary scoring option. And during Tournament play (and increasingly at the end of the regular season), they’ve gotten exactly that. In a second-round bout against Iona, Sam Thompson (20 points) and Lenzelle Smith (12) were in double figures; Craft (18) stole the show in the next match-up with Iowa State, and there was no greater symbolic statement to his newfound offensive chutzpah than when he looked off Thomas on a critical final possession, lulled Cyclones’ forward Georges Niang to sleep with a deft walk-up dribble, and iced a game-winning three while holding up his wrist on the follow through as his teammates celebrated a squeaky escape. LeBron James took notice. You should, too.

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Happy Sweet Sixteen, everyone. The RTC Podcast crew is back with several of our NCAA Tournament Region correspondents this week to break down what we saw over the weekend and what to expect in the coming one. As always, Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114) is our host, with Brian Otskey (@BOtskey) and Drew Murawa (@AMurawa) joining us to discuss the East and West Regions, respectively. If you missed them earlier, we also published the South and Midwest Region podblasts today. Enjoy the Sweet Sixteen!

East Region

• 0:00-2:22 – Marquette Barely Makes Our Upset Pick Look Bad
• 2:22-8:17 – Timeout and Flagrant Foul Rule Changes
• 8:17-10:36 – Marquette’s Other Close Call
• 10:36-13:20 – Miami Survives a Close Call of Their Own
• 13:20-16:00 – What Does Indiana’s Round of 32 Scare Mean For the Hoosiers
• 16:00-20:04 – Syracuse, Finally a Good Team Without a Close Game
• 20:04-25:14 – Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight Predictions
• 25:14-29:12 – Reactions to the Latest Breaking Conference Realignment News

West Region

• 0:00-3:54 – Gonzaga the First #1 Seed to Fall
• 3:54-6:12 – Wichita State Deserves Credit
• 6:12-9:57 – La Salle’s Under the Radar Cinderella Run
• 9:57-16:48 – Examining the Other West Region Upsets
• 16:48-20:49 – Mountain West March Sadness
• 20:49-22:23 – Arizona Looking to Recapture Top 10 Form
• 22:23-25:57 – Arizona Comes Into Elite Eight Off Blowouts, Ohio State Off a Buzzer Beater
• 25:57-30:27 – Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight Predictions