1. Auburn will be without one of their key forwards for the time being. JUCO transfer Chris Griffin has to leave the team to attend to a family matter. While we all hope everything ends up being okay in his personal life, there is no doubt Auburn will miss Griffin. He was coming off a 17-point effort against Northwestern State, and presents an inside-outside presence that the Tigers really need. This is an Auburn team that already has shown they cannot defend and they will likely struggle to score a little as well. Griffin will be replaced for now by walk-on Alex Thompson. Thompson gives the Tigers a little size at 6’8″, but his scoring ability is limited. He will have to contribute on the boards and defense to make an impact. Anyone on Auburn willing to defend at this point is an automatic upgrade.
2. Johnny Jones was not happy with his team’s effort on Tuesday night, despite the fact that they won 81-54. Jones felt the team wasn’t consistent in their shot selection and generally played poorly on offense, including going seven minutes without a field goal at one point. He has a point, LSU has already had a couple games this season where they went long stretches without a field goal. That is hard to watch and not wonder what happens when the level of competition is raised as the team makes a run at a NCAA bid. However, Jones should keep in mind he has a dominant rebounding team, and is currently missing one of his best players. Once Jarell Martin is back, the Tigers offense will have another weapon, and it is doubtful they go through many dry spells.
3. Look up on the map to Kentucky and surprise surprise, you will find another coach not happy with his team. John Calipari is a master at finding even the smallest thing to criticize about his teams. Right now, he isn’t happy with the way his team is rebounding, and it all relates back to effort. Kentucky is far too big to lose rebounds to inferior competition, so its hard to blame Calipari. As with every minor detail he sets out to correct, Calipari understands that he has the most talented team. That is the case nearly every season. What trips his team’s up tends to be because they take stretches of the game off. The Anthony Davis team was so successful because they combined their immense talent with effort. Same thing with the DeMarcus Cousins team, and effort will be what sets this Kentucky team apart and allows their talent to dominate.
4. Here is a name to keep an eye on as the season moves along: Mississippi State big man Gavin Ware. He dropped 23 points and 11 rebounds on Mississippi Valley State, and is averaging 15 points and 12 rebounds a game so far this season. The reason Ware took such a big step this year? He has dropped his late night visits to Waffle House and replaced them with early morning exercise. Now Ware is in shape and the Bulldogs can run their offense though him, which is exactly what Rick Ray wants. His ability to score in the post will draw double teams to open up the three point line for the Mississippi State guards, and also give slashing teammates easy layups at the basket. Don’t be surprised when he is giving your favorite team’s big man trouble in conference play.
5. There really isn’t much basketball related to say about this story, but it is too cool to not pass along. Missouri will host a Make-a-Wish kid during their basketball game this Saturday. This young woman was a former basketball player who was diagnosed with cancer which was discovered after she broke her leg. Now she wants to study Radiology and Medical Imaging. Go read her whole story, it is really amazing, and puts the typical early season coaches complaints into their proper perspective.

Brian Goodman is an RTC corresopondent. He filed this report from Saturday’s game between Missouri and Hawaii in Kansas City, Missouri.

One of the biggest questions for Missouri entering this season was how the Tigers would replace the post production of Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers after the big men left Columbia. While three games is still too early to draw any definitive conclusions, Frank Haith’s team made some nice progress against Hawaii Saturday night at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. Here are three thoughts from the game, won by Missouri, 92-80.

• Supporting Cast Steps Up While Jordan Clarkson Sits: Just three minutes into the game, the Tigers’ star transfer went to the bench after getting called for his second foul, a technical for taunting the Rainbow Warriors after hitting a layup (we won’t give much digital ink to the fact that the Tigers still trailed at the time, but it’s worth mentioning). While Clarkson sat out for the rest of the half, his teammates came up in a big way on offense. Jabari Brown led the way with 23 points, showing a very nice all-around game, which Earnest Ross complemented brilliantly in the second half. Ryan Rosburg and Johnathan Williams III also helped Missouri execute its offense efficiently. The Tigers’ forwards exploited the seemingly endless number of opportunities given to them inside, both on the bounce and by backing their men down in the post.

Missouri’s Jordan Clarkson was saddled with foul trouble in the first half, but he made up for it after the intermission, helping Missouri to a win over Hawaii on Saturday. (Mike Krebs/Maneater)

• Tony Criswell’s Return Bolsters Missouri Frontcourt: Missouri received a huge boost from Tony Criswell, who contributed 11 points and nine rebounds in his season debut after being suspended for the team’s first two games. Criswell entered the game to a huge ovation early in the first half and never let up. Criswell scored at will in the post, drawing extra help to provide Missouri’s primary weapons with more space with which to operate. We know that Clarkson, Brown and Ross give Missouri one of the most potent backcourts in the SEC, but if its rotation up front continues to pitch in the way it did on Saturday, it will give the Tigers a major boost towards contending for an NCAA Tournament bid, and Criswell will be a huge part of that.
• Tigers Bend But Don’t Break On Defense: Despite holding the Rainbow Warriors to a paltry 42 percent shooting clip in the first stanza, Missouri trailed at halftime largely due to 12 fouls that were called on the Tigers, many of which sent Hawaii to the charity stripe. Hawaii sank 16-of-18 free throws in the first half to keep Gib Arnold’s team in the game. The second half was a different story, as Missouri defended much more effectively, although the Rainbow Warriors mounted a few comebacks. With bigger non-conference games looming, more complete games defensively will become increasingly important for the Tigers.

1. While you were watching the action at the United Center, Jordan Clarkson had a giant game for Missouri against Southern Illinois, scoring an efficient 31 points on 12-of-18 shooting and handing out five assists. What must be refreshing for Missouri fans is that he didn’t commit a turnover despite playing all 40 minutes and initiating the offense most of the game. Phil Pressey did a lot of great things for Missouri last year, but he had the second most turnovers (120) in the SECand too many of these came in crucial late-game situations. Clarkson has had three turnovers in 63 minutes this season and Wes Clark has just one in 38 minutes. These numbers won’t hold up over the course of an entire season, but it’s an encouraging start for a team that had problems coughing the ball up at the point guard position a season ago.
2. Florida’s loss to Wisconsin Tuesday isn’t one the Gators should hang their heads over, but given how the game began it feels like a missed opportunity. The Gators had a 16-4 lead with under 12 minutes to go in the first half, but as the linked article points out, Kasey Hill‘s second foul and removal from the game led to a stagnant Florida offense. After getting punched back by Wisconsin and falling behind 47-36, the Gators were able to recover and make the game come down to the final minute. But like Alabama against Oklahoma last Friday, Florida wasted a big lead against a quality non-conference opponent. Scottie Wilbekin’s suspension makes the loss all the more frustrating because with another point guard the Florida offense will be less prone to stagnation due to foul trouble.
3. ESPN‘s Eamonn Brennan wrote about Julius Randle and Kentucky’s cold start against Michigan State saying, “the Spartans forced five steals in the first five minutes, and opened a 10-0 run on the easy (and sometimes spectacular) baskets that ensued. Kentucky’s offense stood stagnant. Randle, UK’s undisputed star, was frustrated by both Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson. Randle had 27 touches in the first 6:30, according to STATS LLC, and exactly zero points from them.” This statistic obviously has to be considered in light of Randle’s eventual 27 points in the game. His physical talent is undeniable and has been raved about ad nauseam on all corners of the internet over the last 36 hours, but the mindset he showed Tuesday night was also impressive. He was flustered to begin the game, continually receiving the ball far from the basket and turning it over multiple times. Despite all of this, Randle recovered to not only have a good game, but a great game. This sort of competitiveness and confidence paired with elite abilities is why he’ll be such a high pick in next year’s NBA draft. It should also carry Kentucky far into the NCAA Tournament next spring.
4. Rocky Top Talk points out that Tennessee’s inability to get to line against Xavier, and the team’s inability to do anything productive when it got there, was an especially frustrating part of the Volunteers’ season opening loss. Tennessee took only 19 attempts, and shot a paltry 38 percent while there (7-of-19). Jarnell Stokes was particularly disappointing as he didn’t get to the foul line at all. Even though he struggled with foul trouble (eventually fouling out) the Preseason Wooden Award nominee still played 20 minutes and should have been able to get to the line more often. With offensive low post talent and power like Stokes and Jeronne Maymon inside, the Volunteers need to use other teams’ scrambling to leverage the new hand-checking rules to their advantage. Whether they have the ability to cash in on extra opportunities, however, remains to be seen.
5. Arkansas announced Tuesday that it’ll break ground in December on a basketball-exclusive practice facility that is scheduled to open in 2015. Interestingly, the Razorbacks are the only team in the SEC without a dedicated basketball practice facility, despite one of the biggest college basketball arenas in the country and arguably the second-most enthusiastic SEC basketball fan base. Mike Anderson was promised the new facility during his negotiations with Arkansas in 2011. The new building could be a potent recruiting tool for him, but success on the court is the best recruiting tool. Given the middling results in his first two years on the job, it’ll be interesting to see if he’s still the coach when the first Razorback practice takes place in the new facility in 2015.

Larry Brown calls it “scary.” Herb Sendek thinks it’ll be “revolutionary.” These longtime and venerable coaches are talking about the NCAA’s new hand-check rule, which will no doubt be a nagging storyline throughout the upcoming season. Many believe that an increased emphasis on hand checks will lead to more fouls. “Tons of fouls, a lot of free throws, long, ugly games. Hopefully fans can prepare for that. It is going to be frustrating.” That’s Lon Kruger’s take on the effect of the new rules. Given the concern that many coaches have about the change, it’s worth looking at which SEC teams and players could be affected most by the difference.

Craig Sword had the third-most fouls in the SEC last year and the new hand-check rule could be tough on him (photo courtesy bigstory.ap.com).

Fouls: The following players led the league in fouls last year, and could be in for even more foul trouble and time off the court if they don’t show more discipline to adapt to the new rules:

• Dont’e Williams, Georgia, 98 total fouls
• Alex Caruso, Texas A&M, 93 total fouls
• Craig Sword, Mississippi State, 92 total fouls
• Rodney Cooper, Alabama, 91 total fouls
• Allen Payne, Auburn, 89 total fouls
• Johnny O’Bryant, LSU, 89 total fouls
• Alex Poythress, Kentucky, 88 total fouls
• Jarvis Summers, Ole Miss, 87 total fouls
• Michael Carrera, South Carolina, 85 total fouls
• Patric Young, Florida, 85 total fouls

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1. After securing a commitment from power forward Trey Lyles, Kentucky now has the number one ranked 2014 recruiting class – seemingly an annual tradition at this point. With six of 247Sports top 10 players still undecided, that ranking is by no means locked in, but regardless, the Wildcats will reload again. Even if Kentucky does not land the biggest names like Jahlil Okafor or Cliff Alexander (and the rumors are that it won’t), this is still an amazing recruiting class. Kentucky fans should take a look at the players they are adding next season as a net positive. Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker are two players that are likely to stick around for two or three years rather than leave for the NBA after one season. Those are the type of players who help sustain championship-level teams as the elite prospects roll through on their one-year stopovers. The 2012 National Championship team needed senior Darius Miller as well as sophomores Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. The one-and-done players are awfully nice, but having some 4-star recruits stick around an extra year or two also benefits the team in the long run.
2. Speaking of Kentucky and highly touted recruits, Ken Pomeroy examined how many first round picks this Kentucky is likely to have next June. He looked back in the Draft Express archives and examined where players were picked and then compared it to their projected draft position before the season. The conclusion was that Kentucky is most likely to have either four or five first round picks this season. Something to keep in mind is that what we think of players now is often not what we think of them at the end of the season. Last January nobody would have thought Alex Poythress would be back for his sophomore season, and Nerlens Noel was the runaway choice to be picked first overall. Things can change drastically over the course of a season. Perhaps Andrew Harrison wants to stay in school with his brother who is not ready for the NBA yet. James Young could decide he wants to wait a year and get picked higher. No matter what happens, projections suggesting up to seven Kentucky players could go in the first round should be taken with a grain of salt. Too much can change between now and June to know anything for certain.
3. When Missouri coach Frank Haith sits for his five-game NCAA suspension related to the Miami/Nevin Shapiro scandal, Tim Fuller will take over the Tigers’ head coaching duties. Fuller came to the Tigers with Haith and has been the associate head coach the last two years. This move is a bit of a surprise, considering assistant coach Dave Leitao has some experience as a head coach at the D-I level. Still, Fuller has been rumored to be a prime head coaching candidate the last couple of summers, and he deserves a chance to prove himself too. Missouri has a fairly easy opening five games (Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Illinois, Hawaii, Gardner-Webb, IUPUI), but not having the head coach in place creates a leadership void. Haith feels as though Fuller is up to the task, and it is a good bet that when Haith returns on Thanksgiving to face Northwestern, the Tigers will already be 5-0. The two things to watch for with Fuller: managing the rotation of players, especially with a young and unpolished frontcourt; and how he coaches at the end of games. Haith struggles himself at the end of close games, perhaps Fuller can prove himself capable in avoiding that same issue.
4. Buried within the Tim Fuller news was the announcement that two Missouri big men might not play the season opener on Friday night. Forward Tony Criswell has been suspended for the first game of the season, while fellow big man Keanau Post hasn’t practiced all week with a bad ankle. Criswell is the only returning interior player for the Tigers this season, so they need him to play as much as possible. While Haith said he expected Criswell to be back for the team’s second game, that is not a given. When a team has as much roster turnover as Missouri does, they need as much time to play together as possible. Post was a solid scorer at the JuCo level and Missouri desperately needs someone who can score inside this season. Until these two inside players are able to return to the lineup, look for Mizzou to use its four-guard lineup quite often to spread the floor and overcome the size disadvantage.
5. Billy Donovan isn’t sure what to expect in the early part of this season because he’s missing so much of his team. Donovan questions the team’s top 10 ranking to start the season, pointing out that the team pollsters voted on is not the team he currently has available. With three key players suspended, one sick with mononucleosis, and five-star point guard Chris Walker struggling with test scores, the Gators are missing a starting lineup that could beat Auburn by 15. Donovan is right, his team is going to hit some really rough patches early. Their non-conference schedule is tough, and they could suffer a few losses that probably would not have occurred if the team was at full strength. Playing Wisconsin on Tuesday will be especially challenging without all their athletes around to negate the Badgers more deliberate pace. Hopefully by the time Florida plays UConn on December 2, the team will be more intact. Like Devon Walker says in the article, eventually they will get most of their players back and have time to come together. Perhaps a slow start removes an opportunity for a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but a fully healthy Florida roster in March has no ceiling.

It was lean times for the SEC on Selection Sunday last year, with only three teams invited into the NCAA Tournament field. This was the fewest of the “power” conferences and two fewer than the Mountain West and Atlantic 10. Had Ole Miss not won the SEC Tournament, the number very well could have been two. The bubble would have been dangerous territory for the Rebels because of a weak non-conference schedule. With that in mind, let’s take a look at several SEC teams that could find themselves on this year’s bubble (if things break a certain way), and whether their respective non-conference schedules will boost them or bite them. Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and LSU are assumed as either locks or solid bubble teams for the purposes of this article. As discussed with Texas A&M yesterday, the expected middle tier of the SEC is wide open this season. Teams like the Aggies, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas and Ole Miss all have question marks, and there are plenty of SEC wins to be had for the teams that emerge from this scrum.

Alabama

Anthony Grant and Alabama have chances for marquee non-conference wins in games against Wichita State and UCLA (photo courtesy nydailynews.com).

Helpful Games: Oklahoma (neutral), Wichita State, Xavier, @UCLA
Outlook: It’s quality over quantity for Anthony Grant’s team this season. The games against Wichita State and UCLA (in Los Angeles) would be marquee parts of any non-conference schedule. Oklahoma isn’t a Big 12 power at the moment but should continue to improve under Lon Kruger. It’ll be a minor challenge beginning the season against the Sooners and following it up six days later against rebuilding Texas Tech. The Crimson Tide have a true road game against South Florida, but the Bulls fell to 12-19 last season after a nice run in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. If Grant can split the Wichita State/UCLA games and not trip up too badly elsewhere, the Tide will be in good shape at the beginning of conference play.

Arkansas

Helpful Games: Southern Methodist, Maui Invitational (California, Syracuse/Minnesota, TBA)

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1. This season the SEC is a bottom-feeding league during the non-conference season. According to the article, eight SEC teams had a RPI of #80 or worse last season. Weak non-conference scheduling is a big part of this, and the conference needs to come together and stop the practice. The problem is that a school like Georgia or Mississippi State wants to pad its win total instead of playing tougher competition; otherwise, coaches of those schools know they will lose their job. Every school in the conference should look at what John Calipari does with his non-conference schedule and make an effort to imitate it. Athletic directors should agree to give coaches some leeway in regards to job security when a coach puts together a more aggressive non-conference schedule. This will raise the overall reputation of the conference and lead to more quality wins that matter come NCAA selections. In the long run, coaches will find that tougher non-conference games will result in better outcomes for the entire SEC.
2. Speaking of non-conference schedules, this list of the top non-conference games includes a number of Kentucky games as well as a few involving Florida. While the rest of the SEC is likely to be ignored nationally for most of the non-conference season, these two teams have plenty of big games before January. Kentucky plays Michigan State, Louisville, and North Carolina before Christmas. It will be fascinating to see how Kentucky’s freshman play against those teams, especially since Kentucky usually needs some time to gel defensively. Calipari will need to have his team ready to go from day one, and since the expectation in Big Blue Nation is a 40-0 season, the pressure won’t let up all year long. Florida’s schedule will be crucial in its bid to earn a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. The fact is, the SEC schedule does not give Florida many chances to bolster their RPI, so winning these tough non-conference games is incredibly important. When it comes down to getting a #2 or #3 seed, a win over Kansas or Wisconsin can make all the difference on the resume.
3. The AP Preseason All-America Team was announced yesterday, and it surprisingly did not include Kentucky freshman Julius Randle. While fellow freshman phenom Andrew Wiggins did make the list, Randle was left off in favor of Michigan sophomore Mitch McGary. Of course the list means nothing since there has not even been a game played yet, but it makes little sense for Randle to have been omitted. By all accounts he is one of the five best players in college basketball this season and it would be stunning if he isn’t on this list at the end of the season. All due respect to McGary, who had a great NCAA Tournament, but Randle is already a more polished player. The bottom line is this, the best player on the best team should be on the All-American team. AP voters might be rethinking this exclusion after watching Randle tear apart the competition all season long.
4. Mississippi State coach Rick Ray is expecting a number of his players to take a big jump in their second season of college basketball. Ray claims that players improve the most during the summer after their first season. He doesn’t provide statistics to actually back up that claim, but for Ray’s sake I hope he is correct. It looks like Mississippi State will struggle to score again this season, a year after having the second worst offense in the league. Representative of that struggle is the fact that freshman point guard IJ Ready is acknowledged as the top addition to the team. However, as the author points out, Ready is not much of a scorer. This is going to be another long season for the Bulldogs unless a number of their players start making more shots; otherwise, look for another season of low-scoring games and a pile of losses. Good defensive teams will feast on this lineup, in all likelihood packing the paint and daring the Bulldog guards to shoot three-pointers. On top of their offensive struggles, advanced metrics rate the Bulldogs as the worst defensive team in the SEC — marginal improvement by three sophomores is just not going to be enough.
5. Grantland posted its SEC preview, and the entire article is worth a read. What stood out was the placement of Missouri’s Frank Haith on the hot seat. By all accounts the administration and fans like Haith, and he has been fairly successful in his two years at the school. However, as the author points out, Haith’s teams have shown a disturbing tendency to fall apart at the end of games. That happened to him at Miami too, and in two NCAA Tournament games at Missouri, Haith’s team has yet to give a good effort. Some fans could protect Haith by pointing out that Phil Pressey was always mentally volatile during his Missouri career, but nonetheless this will be a pivotal season for the head coach. If Missouri does not have a successful season and win an NCAA tournament game, Haith will start to lose some of the legion of defenders that he has right now.

1. Missouri barely escaped in its exhibition game against Central Missouri over the weekend. Missouri’s big men struggled all night, which prompted Frank Haith to use a four-guard lineup. That lineup led the Tigers’ late rally and avoided an embarrassing loss. Missouri fans should be encouraged, however, because Haith’s best team featured four guards on the court at almost all times. With Jordan Clarkson’s ability to attack the rim and create space, having an extra shooter on the floor will make their offense much more effective. Earnest Ross and Jabari Brown will love the open looks they get when Haith uses a four-out/one-in offense. If Missouri’s inexperienced group of big men cannot prove themselves early, look for Haith to ride his guards for most of the season.
2. Jeff Goodman’s list of the top 25 breakout players for the upcoming season featured two SEC players. Dorian Finney-Smith of Florida and Eric McClellan of Vanderbilt both made the list at #8 and #21, respectively. Once Finney-Smith returns from his suspension, Billy Donovan will be counting on him to play a big role inside. Finney-Smith is expected to be one of the most versatile players on the Gators and help Patric Young shoulder the rebounding role inside. McClellan might not be the starter for Vanderbilt at point guard right now, but in the article Goodman quotes a Vanderbilt coach who thinks he might be the team’s leading scorer. The key for McClellan will be setting up his teammates, though, because he’s already anticipated to be a solid scorer.
3. Kentucky crushed Division III Transylvania Friday night, although they were sloppy early. Obviously the large margin of victory makes it hard to criticize the Wildcats, but don’t tell that to John Calipari. Calipari understands the importance of getting his players to match their talent with energy, as it was what made his 2012 National Championship team so special. Last season Kentucky struggled to play with consistent effort every game, so this is a great chance for Calipari avoid that same problem. In 30 to 35 of their games this season, Kentucky will already be so talented that the opponent cannot overcome it. However, Calipari wants to win those other games too, and knows the way to do it is to force his team to play with relentless effort no matter the opponent.
4. Now that he has true point guard talent back on campus, Calipari is bringing back the dribble-drive offense this season. Last seen at Kentucky with John Wall running the show, Calipari feels as though his guards are skilled enough this season to run the system. Look for Andrew and Aaron Harrison to attack the rim aggressively in the offense, and kick out to the wings when necessary. Those drives will leave James Young with great looks in the corner, with the option to attack the baseline as well. The article also mentions that Calipari has been putting Julius Randle at the free-throw line in this offense. That will serve two equally scary purposes. First, he will draw double teams and result in easy dunks for Willie Cauley-Stein. Second, Randle is vicious attacking off the dribble, so slow defenders will never have a chance.
5. Ole Miss is trying to find some leadership this season, and it showed Friday night. With a number of key leaders from last season gone, and Marshall Henderson starting the season under suspension, Andy Kennedy needs some players to step up. The key here is that Kennedy wants someone other than Henderson to lead this team. Given the unpredictability of his behavior, this is a smart move. Having a player willing to rescue the team when Henderson is having an off night is even more important. What made Ole Miss an NCAA Tournament team last season was the fact that players other than Henderson were leading the team and making big time shots. Henderson is a fun sideshow, and his energy is contagious during the best times, bu it is not the same when things aren’t going well and Andy Kennedy does not want his team’s play to be solely dictated by Henderson’s heat checks.

We’re just a little over a week from the start of games across this fair nation, and that means it’s time to preview each of the major seven basketball conferences on the RTC Podcast. This week we’ll unveil previews for the Big East (Tuesday), Big Ten (Wednesday), SEC (Thursday) and Pac-12 (Friday), with the AAC, ACC and Big 12 to come next week. As always, Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114) is our talented and engaging host, leading the group through a series of topics and questions related to the upcoming season. For this podblast, we invited RTC SEC microsite correspondent Brian Joyce (@bjoyce_hoops) to the program, as he helped us consider whether this year’s league will be another version of Kentucky & Everyone Else.

Make sure to add the RTC Podcast to your iTunes lineup so that you’ll automatically upload it on your listening device after we record. And don’t forget to check out our 2013-14 Preseason Podcast, the National Edition, and feel free to contact us through Twitter or email — we’re listening.

The rundown is below if you’d like to skip around.

• 0:00-10:04 – Is This Kentucky Team More Like 2012 or 2013?
• 10:04-14:44 – Florida as a Contender
• 14:44-21:00 – Anyone Else in the SEC Going to be Good?
• 21:00-23:16 – Randy Rejects Tennessee as a Potential Favorite Team
• 23:16-24:48 – MARSHALL HENDERSON!
• 24:48-29:24 – Other SEC Stars
• 29:24-30:33 – Underrated SEC Players
• 30:33-33:41 – Impact of Frank Haith’s Suspension on Mizzou and the Rest of the SEC

Optimism. It’s what makes this an exciting time of year. You may have an idea what lies ahead for your team, but you don’t know for sure. Surprises happen. A freshman proves that the recruiting services were wrong, an underachieving group of seniors plays with new urgency, or the third-year coach’s offensive system finally clicks. In honor of this cliched “everyone has the same record” feeling, let’s take a glass half-full look at the 14 teams of the SEC. Here’s why each SEC East team will exceed their expectations in 2013-14.

Florida

The Expectation: Top two SEC + Elite Eight

Why They’ll Exceed It: The Gators’ frontcourt is one of the best defensive units in the country, making it difficult on opponents who focus on scoring around the rim (like Kentucky). Patric Young caps off an excellent career and a healthy Will Yeguete joins him in frustrating opposing bigs. Dorian Finney-Smith and Damontre Harris maintain this defensive presence when called upon. Scottie Wilbekin becomes eligible early and finds a chemistry with Kasey Hill in a creative, dual point guard offense. Casey Prather and Chester Frazier make the jump from productive role players to mainline contributors. Billy Donovan has the personnel to ride his pressure defense into the Final Four.

Patric Young’s Offensive Rebounds Are One Way To Get Additional Touches (Getty)

Georgia

The Expectation: Lower tier SEC + no NCAA Tournament

Why They’ll Exceed It: Charles Mann learned from playing alongside Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and becomes a premier scorer with good range. Nemanja Djurisic emerges as a versatile scorer, and creates space and slashing opportunities by pulling opposing big men outside. Kenny Gaines benefits from this space and becomes a reliable scorer as well. Upperclassmen Donte’ Williams, John Cannon and Tim Dixon all take a step forward in their development, forming a solid rebounding and shot-blocking trio. Mark Fox also gets immediate contributions from freshmen guards J.J. Frazier and Juwan Parker. This gives him the ability to create mismatches with small lineups full of shooters. The Bulldogs use a progressive system to climb into the middle of the SEC and make the NIT.

Kentucky

The Expectation: First place SEC + Final Four

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