It was not a banner weekend for scoring in the ACC. The main offender, of course, was NC State, which set many dubious records for offensive futility in its 47-24 home loss to Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack weren’t the only squad to struggle to put the ball in the hoop this weekend, however. Eight of the 14 teams in action failed to crack the 60-point barrier, and the league collectively made just 37.1 percent of its field goal attempts. In the big match-up of the weekend, North Carolina earned its revenge on Louisville, handling the Cardinals, 79-69, in the KFC Yum! Center. League leader Virginia beat Miami, 56-46, without the services of Ty Jerome (back injury), while Duke stepped away from league play to throttle St. Johns’s in Durham. Here are the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

• Best Win: After suffering the worst home loss during Roy Williams‘ tenure in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago at the hands of Louisville, the Tar Heels redeemed themselves in a big way this weekend. A 30-8 first-half run gave North Carolina a commanding lead that was never really challenged. Luke Maye and Cam Johnson led the way with a pair of double-double performances, and, for Maye, it was a personal measure of revenge, as he was outplayed by Louisville’s Steven Enoch in the first meeting. Saturday was a completely different deal — Maye finished with 20 points and 11 boards while Enoch failed to score in 16 minutes of action.

• Worst Loss: It looked like a great opportunity for NC State to recover some steadiness entering Saturday’s contest. Kevin Keatts’ team was coming off two emotional home games — last Saturday’s buzzer-beating win over Clemson, and a tough overtime loss to Virginia — with Virginia Tech missing its star point guard Justin Robinson. Unfortunately for Keatts, the Wolfpack forgot to bring their offense to PNC Arena. In scoring only 24 points for the entire game, NC State posted the lowest point total by a Division I team this decade, and the lowest by an ACC school in the shot-clock era. More importantly, Keatts’ squad whiffed on a chance to post a resume-building win that it may need on Selection Sunday.

This is the second edition of our weekly view at the current ACC standings with a focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their conference records may indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to share a few interesting notes on teams, statistics and trends around the conference. This week we examine how the Four Factors are influencing wins in the ACC this season. Finally, we will forecast how the final league standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that may mean for teams’ ultimate postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Tuesday, January 29.

Current Standings

We have a clear top tier of teams in both the standings and efficiency margin. Virginia came back to the field slightly after its tougher than expected overtime win in Raleigh against NC State on Tuesday night, but Tony Bennett’s guys are still the most impressive team — especially given that the Cavaliers have faced the toughest ACC slate among the one-loss schools. Clemson is a team to keep an eye on despite its stumbling start in league play — the Tigers’ schedule is about to lighten up considerably and their efficiency margin already contains two blowout losses to heavyweights Virginia and Duke.

Two of the hottest teams in the league — Louisville and North Carolina — will meet in a pivotal game this Saturday in the KFC Yum! Center. The Tar Heels have yet to lose on the road in ACC play, and Roy Williams should have his team motivated for revenge after the drubbing the Cardinals laid on them in Chapel Hill.

Entering the weekend, five schools set atop the ACC standings with just one loss each. That number of teams is now down to four, as Syracuse lost to Virginia Tech, 78-56, on Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, conference co-leaders Virginia (82-55 at Notre Dame), Duke (66-53 versus Georgia Tech) and Louisville (66-51 against Pittsburgh) all finished with comfortable wins, although the Blue Devils needed to rally from an eight-point deficit early in the second half. Two other games produced the most exciting finishes of the weekend. Braxton Beverly’s last-second three-pointer capped a furious rally by NC State, as the Wolfpack scored the game’s last eight points to beat Clemson in Raleigh, 69-67. Similarly, Ky Bowman made a clutch three to complete a Boston College comeback victory at Wake Forest. Here are the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

• Best Win: Just five days after seeing its reputation plummet following a 21-point beatdown at North Carolina, Virginia Tech bounced back in a big way by trouncing Syracuse. The Hokies used quick ball movement and laser-sharp shooting to shred Jim Boeheim’s famous zone defense. Buzz Williams’ team sank 14 threes and finished with 23 assists on their 25 made field goals. Surprisingly, Syracuse was unable to capitalize on its huge height advantage over the Hokies – the Orange only converted 40.7 percent of their two-point tries.

• Worst Loss: Gut-wrenching is the only way to describe the utter meltdown suffered by Clemson at PNC Arena on Saturday. It’s been a struggle so far in conference play for the 1-5 Tigers, but they seemed well on their way to picking up a possible season-changing win when leading the Wolfpack by six with 20 seconds to play. Then everything that could go wrong did, with most of it self-inflicted. Senior Marcquise Reed (84% FT for the season) missed four straight free throws, and Clemson tried the ‘fouling while up three’ strategy way too early – allowing NC State’s Beverly to cut the lead to one with nine seconds remaining. That left the Wolfpack with ample time to foul Reed and then get the ball up the floor for Beverly’s clean look, which (of course) he drained. Fortunately for Brad Brownell, the schedule lightens up considerably now, but time is quickly running out for the Tigers’ NCAA hopes.

With approximately one-third of conference play now in the books, it’s time to take a look inside the ACC numbers. This is the first edition of our weekly view at the current ACC standings with a focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their conference records may indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to share a few interesting notes on teams, statistics and trends around the conference. Finally, we will forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that may mean for teams’ ultimate postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Tuesday, January 22.

Current Standings

Although there is a strong correlation between efficiency margin and the conference standings, there are also some clear differences among the one-loss schools. Virginia has been the league’s best performer to date, while Syracuse appears to be quite fortunate to have suffered only one defeat so far. It’s important to keep in mind that schedule strength can have a huge impact this early in conference play. For instance, three teams have already had the misfortune of facing both Virginia and Duke. That quirk in scheduling helps explain why two of those squads (Florida State and Clemson) are both well under .500 in the league at this point. The opposite is true for NC State and Georgia Tech, neither of which has faced either of the league’s national heavyweights. Clearly the biggest surprise this year is Louisville. The Cardinals’ robust efficiency margin has not been earned in any fluky way — Chris Mack’s team simply crushed North Carolina and Georgia Tech in its last two road contests.

Advanced Statistic of the Week: Living and Dying By the Three

The first ACC clash of the titans lived up to the hype as Duke edged Virginia, 72-70, in an electric Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday night. And luckily for us, those two league heavyweights will do it all over again in three weeks in Charlottesville, with one or even two more meetings possible in the postseason. Elsewhere in the league, two other Triangle schools picked up hard earned road wins. North Carolina used a late three-point shooting barrage to pull away from a pesky Miami team, 85-76, and NC State (still playing without point guard Markell Johnson) held off Notre Dame, 77-73. Here are the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

• Best Win: Ever since Tony Bennett raised Virginia to elite status in the ACC hierarchy beginning in the 2013-14 season, the Cavaliers’ games in Durham have been instant classics. To say this game between co-#1 teams could have gone either way would be a vast understatement – for an eight-minute stretch in the middle of the second half, neither school held more than a one-point lead. While the rest of the ACC has struggled to score against Virginia’s pack-line defense, Duke seems to have cracked the code. Only nine league opponents have scored over 1.12 points per possession against Virginia over the last six seasons, but Duke has managed to do it four times, including a 1.14 mark on Saturday. Of course, it may be more a matter of talent than strategy. Mike Krzyzewski has had numerous elite players to call on lately, including, most recently, the transcendental talents of Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Playing without injured point guard Tre Jones, the Blue Devils relied on Barrett (30 points) and Williamson (27 points) to become the first pair of opponents to score more than 25 points against the Cavaliers in the Bennett era. Both teams were effective in the paint but less so from distance – Duke went 2-of-14 from deep while Virginia connected on only three of its 17 three-point tries. That’s where Virginia must feel it let a huge road win get away. While Duke has been struggling with the three-pointer all year, the Cavaliers have been one of the nation’s best outside shooting teams. Expect another classic when the two face off again in three weeks.

• Worst Loss:  Call it the Duke Hangover, Part 2. Last Saturday, Florida State was one second away from stunning the top-ranked Blue Devils, but now, Leonard Hamilton‘s team is looking at a three-game losing streak after back-to-back road upsets at Pittsburgh and Boston College. The Seminoles blew a 10-point halftime lead Sunday afternoon in Conte Forum en route to an 87-82 loss to the Eagles. As has become the custom, Florida State was killed from behind the arc – the Seminoles went 8-of-25 from deep while allowing Boston College to make 13-of-21 from long distance. In five ACC games to date, Florida State ranks last in the league in three-point shooting (24.8%) and is tied for worst in opponents’ success from deep (41.7%).

After a lackluster opening weekend, things were much crazier around the ACC this weekend. In the headline match-up in Tallahassee on Saturday, Duke survived Florida State, 80-78, on Cam Reddish’s last second three. Reddish (23 points) and fellow freshman RJ Barrett (32 points) picked up the slack when Zion Williamson missed the entire second half with an eye injury. The long Seminoles caused problems for the Blue Devils in the paint, blocking seven Blue Devils’ shots, winning the battle of the boards (+5) and out-dunking Duke by a 10-to-1 margin. League co-leader Virginia grabbed another impressive road win too, as the Cavaliers manhandled Clemson, 63-43. Two road underdogs also won with surprising ease as Louisville dominated North Carolina at the Smith Center, 83-62, and Georgia Tech pulled off a stunner at Syracuse, 73-59. Here are the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

• Best Win: Few gave Louisville a realistic chance to win in Chapel Hill on Saturday, much less blow the Tar Heels off their own floor. After all, the Cardinals had just lost to Pittsburgh while North Carolina was coming off an impressive road win over a ranked and fired-up NC State squad. However, Chris Mack’s unit came out smoking (seven first half 3-pointers) and North Carolina never put up much of a fight in the 21-point defeat. The most lopsided home loss of the Roy Williams era was also a huge boost to Louisville’s growing postseason resume. A major key to the victory was the Cardinals’ dominance in the paint. Connecticut transfer Steven Enoch finished with career highs in points (17) and rebounds (11), outplaying UNC star Luke Maye, who finished with just nine points on a cold (3-for-14) shooting day.
• Worst Loss: Georgia Tech gave Syracuse a taste of its own medicine Saturday night in the Carrier Dome. Josh Pastner used a zone defense to befuddle the Orange’s offense and pull off a surprisingly easy upset. Syracuse was unable to penetrate the Yellow Jackets’ interior and struggled to make shots from deep (7-for-33), but Georgia Tech only launched 12 threes (hitting six) and shot 63.3 percent (19-of-30) on two-pointers. Jim Boeheim’s team now has three home defeats and is currently projected by KenPom to finish 9-9 in the league, well below its preseason expectations.

Rush the Court ACC microsite writers Brad Jenkins, Matt Auerbach and Mick McDonald recently got together to chat about the ACC heading in to conference play. Here’s Part 2 of that conversation.

Brad Jenkins: Can Florida State or Virginia Tech crack the top three in the ACC? They both look like solid clubs, but are they being overlooked?

Matt Auerbach: I like both teams, and they deserve to be ranked inside the top 10 nationally. But I don’t believe that either will elevate above the aforementioned three squads when the league plays out.

Mick McDonald: Both definitely could, although I like Buzz Williams’ club a bit more. They are lethal offensively with so many guys who can light it up, and they play really hard on the defensive end. Their schedule has been light so far, so I’m very much looking forward to some bigger opportunities coming up shortly. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Justin Robinson can make an argument for best backcourt in the country and Kerry Blackshear is a match-up nightmare.

Matt Auerbach: Truthfully, there’s no denying both belong inside the top 10 based on merit, but I don’t view either as a legitimate threat to make a Final Four without some unusual breaks falling their way.

Mick McDonald: Agree with Matt. These two are rightful top 10 teams, but the ACC is just so loaded that could mean finishing fourth or fifth.

Matt Auerbach: If forced to choose one team over the other, I’d definitely lean towards the Hokies because of the backcourt. With a guy like Robinson surrounded by elite shooters, they can be impossible to stop if they get rolling.

Brad Jenkins: My only concern with the Hokies is that they are so reliant on great shooting. I’m just not sure how they can beat good teams on off shooting nights. I actually think Florida State may be better now that Phil Cofer is back in the lineup, but the Seminoles tend to not always progress very well through league play. Let’s move on to some surprise teams. Are NC State and Louisville legit?

Mick McDonald: I think NC State is legit in terms of a lock NCAA Tourney and potential second weekend team. Kevin Keatts is proving himself as one of the best young coaches in the country — that team looks like a nightmare to prepare for.

Matt Auerbach: Well, you saw the Pack in person, Brad, and your bird’s eye view confirmed what we had been seeing from afar. NC State is the real deal. Balanced, explosive, efficient and great chemistry makes for beautiful offensive basketball and that’s what Keatts’ team has going right now.

1. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: After coming up just a little short at Iowa in last week’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Pittsburgh struggled early in Friday’s annual City Game with cross-town rival Duquesne. But the Panthers eventually got it going and won going away, 74-53, in front of a crowd of 12,246. We mention the game’s attendance because it represents a 21 percent increase over last year’s meeting in the same event, furthering the notion that first-year head coach Jeff Capel is rebuilding the excitement level for his program in the Steel City. Duquesne coach Keith Dambrot noticed a difference with Capel in charge, saying, “[Former Pitt] Coach [Kevin] Stallings is a finesse guy who is a little more offensively oriented. This team is more like Duke [where Capel played and was an assistant coach].”
2. Louisvile Courier-Journal: Louisville took another positive step in its own rebuilding process by winning at Seton Hall, 70-65, on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals showed during Feast Week that they were ready to compete with the big boys — dropping close games against Tennessee and Marquette in the NIT Season Tip-Off — before edging top-10 Michigan State in overtime last week. In adding a significant road win over a Big East club, Chris Mack‘s balanced attack — only Dwayne Sutton (12 points) reached double figures — has become the norm this year. Sophomore breakout player Jordan Nwora (17.7 PPG) leads the squad in scoring, but eight other Cardinals are averaging between 6.3 and 10.0 points per contest. Keep an eye on this team over the next month.
3. USA Today: Three ACC schools took part in Saturday’s Miami Hoophall Invitational at AmericanAirlines Arena, although the sparse crowds suggest that the four games would have fit better in a local high school gym. Georgia Tech was the first squad to see action, ultimately blowing a 16-point second half lead in falling to St. John’s, 76-73. We are now in year three of the Josh Pastner era, and some clear patterns have emerged:  First, the Yellow Jackets will defend hard (they are currently 16th in national defensive efficiency); next, they will struggle to make shots from deep (30.7% 3FG this season). If their shooting holds, Georgia Tech will fail to make at least 33 percent of its three-pointers for the third straight season. Until Pastner can recruit some shooters into the program — and shouldn’t he have by now (?) — the Yellow Jackets’ limited offense will hold them back.
4. Miami Sun-Sentinel: Georgia Tech wasn’t the only ACC team to blow a huge lead in the Hoophall Invitational. Home team Miami squandered a 15-point second half advantage in losing to Yale, 77-73, its third consecutive defeat. Head coach Jim Larranaga has noticed a fatal flaw in the Hurricanes’ defense this year — after Yale’s Miye Oni (29 points) torched his club, the Hurricanes’ coach noted, “We just don’t have a guy that can stop a guy like that.” Previously, Bethune-Cookman’s Malik Maitland (29 points) and Fresno State’s Braxton Huggins (28 points) found similar success against the Hurricanes’ defense. This raises the obvious question — if mid-major players are slicing up Miami, what will happen when the stars of the ACC get a crack at the Hurricanes?
5. WRAL Sportsfan: The only victorious ACC school in Miami on Saturday was NC State, which pulled away late to top Vanderbilt, 80-65. Much like the Wolfpack’s game at Wisconsin earlier in the week — when the Badgers rallied to overtake them — NC State was in control for most of the way before being challenged in the second half. This time, Kevin Keatts’ team responded positively in what was only their second match-up with a team ranked in KenPom’s top 175. NC State forward Torin Dorn is quietly putting up impressive numbers in many areas. The 6’5″ senior is leading the team in scoring (16.6 PPG) and on the boards (7.6 RPG), while making 55.7 percent of his two-point tries and 50.0 percent of his three-point attempts. Additionally, Dorn has collected 14 steals and only committed nine turnovers in eight games this year.

Note: To gauge relative team strength, we use current KenPom ratings. All times are Eastern.

1. Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational: North Carolina (#3) heads to Sin City as part of a strong field in the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational. The Tar Heels will start off by facing Texas (#27) on Thanksgiving Day (FS1 – 7:30 PM), right after Michigan State (#12) and UCLA (#39) square off in the first game. If the Heels and Spartans both reach the finals on Friday evening (FOX – 6:30 PM), it would be the second consecutive year that Roy Williams and Tom Izzo fought for a Feast Week tourney title. In last year’s PK80 Invitational, Michigan State held North Carolina to its worst shooting performance in school history (24.6%), as Izzo finally bested a Williams-coached UNC team after seven previous losses. We’re betting that Luke Maye would love a shot at redemption against the Spartans — the Heels’ All-America candidate was held to eight points on 3-of-13 shooting in last year’s meeting.
2. Wooden Legacy: Miami (#21) heads to southern California after opening the season with three relatively easy home wins without Dewan Hernandez, who is being held out with eligibility concerns. Even without his best big man in the lineup, Jim Larranaga’s team will be the Wooden Legacy tournament favorites. The Hurricanes will get underway against LaSalle (#192) on Thursday afternoon (ESPNU – 2:30 PM) and will face either Northwestern (#48) or Fresno State (#111) on Friday. The top two-rated schools on the other side of the bracket are Seton Hall (#57) and Utah (#71), so Miami could face a decent opponent if it gets to Sunday night’s championship game (ESPN2 – 10:30 PM). To sweep the competition here, the Hurricanes will need more consistent play from senior center Ebuka Izundu. After a career-best performance (22 points, 19 rebounds) against Stephen F. Austin, Izundu laid an egg (five points, four boards) in Miami’s last game versus Bethune-Cookman.
3. AdvoCare Invitational: Just  two short weeks ago, defending national champ Villanova (#22) was regarded as the team to beat in this year’s event. But after getting smoked by Michigan and then falling to Furman last week at home, the Wildcats are reeling. Now Florida State (#8) enters the AdvoCare Invitational as the presumed favorite. The Seminoles will take on UAB (#163) in Thursday’s opening round (ESPNU – 9:30 PM) and will meet either LSU (#46) or College of Charleston (#107) on Friday. If Leonard Hamilton’s club makes it to the finals on Sunday (ESPN/ESPN2 at either 1:00 or 4:00 PM), it could see Oklahoma State (#62) there — the school that gave the 70-year-old Hamilton his first head coaching gig back in the late 1980s.
4. Deep South Showcase: In each of his three years in Atlanta, Josh Pastner has elected to not participate in a traditional early season tournament, opting instead to have Georgia Tech (#81) play four pre-scheduled home games that are classified as an exempt event. This year’s version is called the Deep South Showcase and the Yellow Jackets have already played twice in it, besting Lamar (#251) and East Carolina (#275). Their remaining games will be played tonight against UT-Rio Grande Valley (#300) and on Friday versus Prairie View A&M (#272). Obviously none of these opponents will boost Georgia Tech’s non-conference schedule strength, but that will be offset by four road/neutral contests on the Yellow Jackets’ pre-conference slate against schools from Power Six leagues.
5. Wolfpack Classic: NC State (#32) is going the same route as Georgia Tech this season, playing in an exempt event that features four pre-scheduled home games against weak competition. It’s surprising that Wolfpack second-year coach Kevin Keatts chose this plan over testing his club in a traditional tournament setting — a year ago, his team gained confidence by participating in the Battle 4 Atlantis and upsetting a highly-rated Arizona squad. In Wolfpack Classic games so far, NC State has dominated Maryland-Eastern Shore (#343), Maine (#335) and Saint Peter’s (#222). In the last match-up of the event, the Wolfpack will host Mercer (#210) on Saturday. This means that NC State will not have faced a top 200 team before it travels to Wisconsin next week as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. How prepared will they be?

We’re just over a week into the season and the ACC has suffered a total of five losses. Two of those defeats came from teams that were expected to struggle, two others were from teams that were hoping to be on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament, and one came from a potential contender. RTC ACC writer Mick McDonald (@themickmcdonald) breaks each of those early losses down. (All rankings via KenPom as of November 15.)

Syracuse Struggled Against Old Enemy UConn Last Night (USA Today Images)

• #96 Connecticut 83, #7 Syracuse 76. As the old saying goes, throw out the KenPom rankings when two old rivals get together. Syracuse had to scratch and claw to make the NCAA Tournament last year despite an elite defense because the Orange simply couldn’t score (135th nationally). Last night against Connecticut in Madison Square Garden, they were up to their old tricks again. The Orange shot just 39.4 percent from the field and made just six threes while allowing Connecticut to nail 12-of-21 from three-point range. Most teams won’t shoot nearly that well against Syracuse’s length this year, but its lack of consistent offense leaves the Orange vulnerable when a team gets hot.
• #259 IUPUI 76, #90 Boston College 69. Whatever dreams Boston College had at making a run at an at-large bid this year may already be over with its bad loss earlier this week to IUPUI. Jim Christian’s team simply isn’t making enough shots, hitting only 29.5 percent of its three-pointers so far this season and getting limited production from its frontcourt of Steffon Mitchell (46.4% eFG) and Nik Popovic (47.4% eFG). Most importantly, Boston College needs to find some depth — through only three games, the Eagles’ five starters are averaging at least 28 minutes per contest. Freshman Jairus Hamilton is playing just over 18 minutes per game off the bench. Nobody else is seeing more than five minutes per contest. If Christian can’t find anyone else he trusts to give the occasional spell to Ky Bowman and Jordan Chatman, Boston College is in major trouble in the ACC.

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