Here is this season’s final edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, March 4.

Current Standings

Hats off to Tony Bennett’s Virginia squad for becoming the first school other than Duke and North Carolina to win consecutive outright ACC regular season titles since the David Thompson-led N.C. State teams of the 1970s. Those Wolfpack squads also won the ACC Tournament both years and brought home the 1974 NCAA championship — lofty but certainly achievable goals for this season’s Cavaliers. Last week we congratulated Virginia for its record-setting performance on the defensive end of the floor, but this week we pay homage to Duke as the Blue Devils should claim the title of the league’s best offense for the sixth year in a row. Despite Mike Krzyzewski’s deserving reputation as a defensive guru, it’s been the Blue Devils’ offense that has carried his teams during the last several seasons. North Carolina, thanks to a second blowout of Georgia Tech in as many weeks, has moved solidly into third place in points per possession margin (PPM). If you’re looking for a team outside the top two to challenge for and perhaps capture the ACC Tourney crown, the Tar Heels would be a good choice even if they end up as the #5 seed. As the only school to play both of the ACC’s heavyweights twice this year, Wake Forest’s PPM is a little deceptive, with Virginia and Duke both inflicting severe beatings in their second meetings with the Deacons.

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1. BC Interruption: I’m hoping we get the full breakdown of possibilities from Patrick Stevens later this week, but Brian Favat does a good job projecting the ACC Tournament bracket (along with a look at where things stood on Tuesday night). Virginia is locked into the top line and Duke has clinched a double-bye. Tuesday’s games are already set with Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech squaring off. The middle is a little more interesting, but where the drama will play out over the next four days is with the last team to get the coveted double-bye to Thursday. One of Notre Dame, North Carolina or Louisville will lose the double-bye and have to play on Wednesday. Currently the Fighting Irish are in the safest position, but they still have two games to play.
2. Greenville News: A couple of weeks ago, Clemson trustees approved a $63.5 million renovation to Littlejohn Coliseum. It needed to happen, as the depths of the old arena are aging poorly. New and improved practice facilities and locker rooms are sure to be hits with recruits, and I’m sure Clemson hopes the reduced seating attracts more fans. Personally, Littlejohn is one of the diamonds in the rough in terms of collegiate atmosphere. Even with modest attendance, it is one of the louder arenas in the league. Hopefully these renovations don’t change that (or put the student section farther from the floor).
3. Winston-Salem Journal: Danny Manning is setting examples in the hope that it will change the culture at Wake Forest. In the Deacs’ recent ugly game against Virginia, he sat the starters early in the second half. He didn’t offer much of an explanation other than “they weren’t doing anything,” but his other comments make it clear these maneuvers are about remaking the program. The Demon Deacons have a long way to go, of course, but assuming they have a couple more strong performances to finish out the year, they should crack the top-100 in Ken Pomeroy’s final rankings. That would best anything during Jeff Bzdelik’s tenure and Austin Johnson points out that the situation is analogous to what Mark Gottfried was able to do at NC State his first year (although with less talent on the roster than when he arrived in Raleigh).
4. Backing the Pack: Stat nerds rejoice! Now there’s a little circular logic to the “total impact” stat (since Ken Pomeroy’s data is adjusted for strength of schedule, it should be built into the numbers already). I would probably have used Basketball Prospectus‘ raw numbers for team output and Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted numbers for opponent expectations, but that’s a trivial difference. What’s interesting is that Duke and Virginia are so close when John Gasaway’s conference efficiency ratings have them at such different levels. NC State also appears to be underperforming based on its record, so the Wolfpack might be a team to watch closely next week.
5. Raleigh News & Observer: We got a little more comment from the Duke athletic department on the Monday allegations from the Duke Chronicle. Athletic Director Kevin White emphasized that the Duke coaching staff satisfied their legal responsibilities and followed university protocol, implying that their information about the case was reported immediately to the proper administrators. That’s not the reading a lot of people took with the original article, so it was smart for White to come out and clarify that position (even if we won’t ever get a detailed timeline). This article won’t satisfy everyone, so here are a couple of alternatives:
   1. If you’re looking for a candidate for hot take of the year, look no further than Art Chansky’s piece on the situation at Chapleboro.com.
   2. If you’re already sick of the story, the Los Angeles Times did a piece on Jahlil Okafor (the Lakers will be in the running for the first overall pick in the NBA Draft this year).

1. Duke Chronicle: No doubt you’ve already heard but Duke‘s student newspaper dropped a bomb on the college basketball world with this article on Rasheed Sulaimon’s alleged involvement in two sexual assaults. First, this is tremendous reporting even thought it relies heavily on unnamed sources. Next, I don’t want to comment too much but this isn’t a good look for Duke. Don’t expect much clarification from the university or Coach K in coming weeks, but I do think a more detailed timeline will come out. Sulaimon is still enrolled at Duke, which makes me think we’ll get more information soon. My gut reaction is that the Duke athletic department really dropped the ball with this even if its administrators and staff didn’t do anything illegal.
2. Syracuse Post-Standard: Great story from Donna Ditota on Rakeem Christmas, aptly nicknamed “the mayor of Syracuse” by teammate BJ Johnson. Christmas is a prime example of why it pays to return to school (well other than the untimely postseason ban). He went from the fourth, maybe fifth, option in the lineup to the go-to guy. He’s improved all of his per game stats without a huge drop in efficiency (and that doesn’t factor in all of the double-teams), and he’s one of the few seniors who has really improved his draft stock this year. Here’s to hoping his advanced age doesn’t scare away NBA teams.
3. NBA Draft Blog: Speaking of seniors who have improved their draft stock, Ed Isaacson took a look at Jerian Grant‘s draft prospects after he graduates from Notre Dame. Grant also has the dreaded age problem, but he has played more man-to-man than Christmas and feels like a sneaky good pick late in the first round. He’s far from a sure thing at the next level, but he’s more athletic than people give him credit for and is a pure scorer. He’s been one of the most well-rounded offensive players in the country this season, and I think he would excel by coming off the bench for a good NBA team.
4. CBSSports.com: The NCAA is looking to deflect blame in some of its most recent dealings with former student-athletes. This time it relates to Rashanda McCants (Rashad McCants’ sister) and former North Carolina football player Devon Ramsay, who are suing North Carolina and the NCAA. From an outsider’s perspective, this case involving theories of liability on academic fraud looks like a long shot, but strangely enough the NCAA’s APR rules could make it more responsible for its member schools’ academic curricula rather than less. A good metaphor is that of McDonald’s, a company with very strict guidelines for franchisees that led the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to label the company as a “joint employer” instead of a true franchise. You may recognize the NLRB from a 2014 story on Northwestern football players unionizing (something that obviously hasn’t yet come to fruition), but all of these cases may combine to slowly turn the tide of public opinion and ultimately break the NCAA’s back.
5. Tar Heel Depot: Very cool idea for a running series. Bryan Ives reminds us all of Georgia Tech‘s Ishma’il Muhammad with an epic highlight video set to Ghostface. This is what blogging is all about.

EXTRA (via Fought and Won One): Starting to piece together your all-ACC teams as the season comes to a close but want to be able to sort by all the different stats? Austin Johnson has you covered.

It was not a productive weekend for ACC teams currently vying for NCAA Tournament consideration. After an impressive resume-enhancing road win last week over North Carolina, N.C. State laid an egg at Boston College in a non-competitive loss to the Eagles on Saturday afternoon. Miami was also hoping to improve its resume with a victory over North Carolina, but the Tar Heels prevailed in Coral Gables and left the Hurricanes wondering about its postseason future. Pittsburgh let a seven-point second half lead slip away at Wake Forest on Sunday night, allowing the Demon Deacons to notch a rare ACC win. This sets up a potential bubble-elimination game this week when Miami travels to Pittsburgh on Wednesday evening. In other weekend ACC action, Virginia clinched a share of its second consecutive ACC title by pulling away from Virginia Tech in the second half; Duke cruised to a comfortable home win over Syracuse; Louisville dominated Florida State in Tallahassee; and Clemson blew a huge first half lead at home before edging Georgia Tech in overtime. Here are some of the other highlights from a busy weekend of ACC action:

N.C. State had no answer for Olivier Hanlan and Boston College in a bad loss for the Wolfpack. (Winslow Townson/Boston Globe)

• Best Win: After suffering that disappointing loss to N.C. State in the Smith Center, North Carolina was in need of a bounceback performance when it traveled south to face a hungry Miami team. The Tar Heels came through with a solid win in Coral Gables, making several big plays down the stretch to break open a tight contest. With the score tied midway through the second half, North Carolina spurted ahead and iced the game at the foul line, as Marcus Paige and Justin Jackson combined to make 10-of-10 free throws in the final two minutes of play. After getting handled on the boards by the Wolfpack, the Tar Heels were instead dominant on the glass against Miami, grabbing 14 more total rebounds than the Hurricanes. The win keeps North Carolina in the hunt for a top-four league finish and the ACC Tournament two-day bye that comes with that distinction.

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This is the latest edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 25.

Current StandingsN.C. State and Pittsburgh continue to surge in the standings, with both schools winning twice in the last week. The Wolfpack in particular have been impressive lately, and Tuesday night’s rare win in Chapel Hill has their faithful feeling much better about making the Big Dance. In fact, based on points per possession margin (PPM) in conference play, Mark Gottfried’s squad has performed every bit as well as any ACC team other than Virginia and Duke. Speaking of the Cavaliers, what they are doing defensively continues to amaze. After holding Wake Forest to just 34 points on Wednesday night in Winston-Salem, Tony Bennett’s guys have practically assured themselves of finishing ACC play with the best defensive points per possession mark in recent conference history — the advanced stats era began in the 2001-02 season. And it will come as no surprise that the existing record for defensive efficiency performance was achieved by last year’s Virginia team — a group that held ACC opponents to a chilly 0.91 points per possession.

There are no match-ups involving two of the ACC’s five elite teams on the schedule this weekend, but there are some interesting games to observe as teams fight for postseason seeding. Jim Boeheim brings Syracuse to Duke’s Cameron Indoor Stadium (Saturday @ 7:00 PM ET – ESPN) in hopes that this game doesn’t end in a similar fashion to last year’s trip to Durham, which featured Boeheim’s dramatic ejection in the closing moments (and spawned a fun meme). In the only other game involving two teams with winning ACC records, North Carolina travels to Miami (Saturday @ 2:00 PM ET – CBS) in another crucial game for the Hurricanes and their NCAA Tourney hopes. There are also a couple of important games for a pair of hot ACC teams that take to the road for meetings with league bottom-dwellers, as N.C. State visits Boston College (Saturday @ Noon ET – RSN) and Pittsburgh travels to Wake Forest (Sunday @ 6:30 PM ET – ESPNU). Neither the Wolfpack nor the Panthers can afford a bad loss on their resumes as the season winds down.

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1. WDRB: Well the Chris Jones saga at Louisville just took an awful turn, as Jones pled not guilty to rape and sodomy charges yesterday. Obviously, these are serious and heinous crimes. Eric Crawford does a good job here in piecing together a timeline. First Jones was suspended over the threatening text message he sent to a girlfriend; then, after agreeing to curfew and handing over his phone, Jones was reinstated in time for the Miami game. That night of that game was when the much more serious alleged crimes took place. Just unbelievable.
2. Bleacher Report: One quick disclaimer — this article focuses on football. But it’s the subject of the article that I care about. There’s a proposal (championed by Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany) for freshmen to once again become ineligible. Needless to say that this is a horrible idea. The only reason I can see the NCAA doing this would be to force the NBA to change its draft age-limit rule. That’s stupid. A more reasonable reason (that would need research) would be if football players had fewer concussion-related injuries if they sat out the year between high school and college, giving them more time to acclimate to a faster and stronger game. But that only applies to football. I firmly believe you should be able to go pro right out of high school, but that’s up to the NBA to figure out. Colleges already have enough dumb rules; keeping its stars off the court helps no one.
3. Greensboro News Record: Cat Barber has been tremendous in ACC play. Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner get a lot of the press for NC State‘s success, but Barber’s improvement has made the Wolfpack much scarier. Remember that at the start of conference play many pundits (and uninformed bloggers like yours truly) were calling for Mark Gottfried to bench Barber in favor of Cody Martin. That looks ridiculous in retrospect. Interestingly enough, Gottfried, a coach known for telling CJ Leslie to be Calvin, tells Barber to “go be Cat” and “be yourself.” Obviously, Barber doesn’t have the same reasons for his underachievement, but the difference in approach is striking.
4. Richmond Times Dispatch: With the beatdown Virginia put on Wake Forest now behind them, the Cavaliers have all but locked up the ACC regular season title — all they need to do is beat Virginia Tech. Admittedly, the Hokies looked great against Duke shooting threes on Wednesday night, but my guess is that this weekend’s game won’t be remotely close. Given Justin Anderson and London Perrantes‘ injuries, winning the top seed in the ACC Tournament will be quite a feat — unbalanced schedules be damned. But this year also feels a little like the the “put up or shut up” judgment year for the pack-line defense at the national level (winning the ACC Tournament last year has already answered that question regionally).
5. TigerNet: Want an exercise in futility? Try to predict the NCAA Tournament bracket weeks before conference tournaments begin. Want even more of a challenge? Get into the business of predicting the NIT field. Unlike the NCAA Tournament (which can select any team it wants), the NIT gets the teams that were left out. That means the top seeds are just as much in flux as those at the bottom. That said, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State (somehow) are all in the current versions of NIT bracketology.

With no match-ups between the ACC’s elite teams this weekend, the focus instead was on two important road contests for teams trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. Miami let a big lead slip away to lose at Louisville on the game’s final possession, and Pittsburgh improved its resume in completing a season sweep of Syracuse. Around the rest of the league, both Duke and North Carolina were able to put Wednesday’s emotionally draining overtime epic behind them and score comfortable home wins over Clemson and Georgia Tech, respectively. The Blue Devils played without star center Jahlil Okafor, who is still nursing an ankle injury suffered in that win last Wednesday. At the start of North Carolina’s game, Roy Williams paid homage to Dean Smith by running Smith’s famed Four Corners offense on the Heels’ first possession. In other weekend action, Virginia outlasted Florida State in a defensive struggle; Notre Dame cruised to victory at Boston College; and N.C. State took care of business by beating Virginia Tech in Raleigh. Here are some of the other highlights from the ACC’s weekend action.

Pittsburgh’s Chris Jones came off the bench to score 19 as the Panthers keep their NCAA Tourney hopes alive.
(Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports)

• Best Win: Pittsburgh plugged a gaping hole in its NCAA Tournament resume by getting its first road win of the season versus an RPI top-100 team at Syracuse. The Panthers’ win at the Carrier Dome featured yet another productive offensive performance by Jamie Dixon’s squad against the vaunted Syracuse zone. Pittsburgh scored 1.18 points per possession on Saturday after posting 1.22 in its earlier win over the Orange, giving the Panthers the two highest totals allowed by Jim Boeheim’s squad all year long. A look at previous meetings over recent years suggests that Dixon may have cracked the zone’s code. In the teams’ last 10 meetings dating back seven years, Pittsburgh has averaged 1.08 points per possession against a Syracuse defense that annually finishes among the nation’s best. If they haven’t already done so, perhaps ACC coaches around the league should study and emulate that strategy (easier said than done).

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This is the latest edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 18.

Current Standings

With three weekends of conference play remaining, things are now mostly as they should be in the standings with respect to matching points per possession margin (PPM) with actual wins and losses. Virginia maintains a clear lead in both the standings and in PPM, and Duke can lay claim to being the second best team, with a clear PPM edge over Notre Dame. Last week we showed how the Irish have achieved their impressive 11-3 record by performing so well in close games, noting that Georgia Tech is the exact opposite reflection of Notre Dame in both PPM and actual record. It’s seems fitting then that those two teams have squared off twice already, and each game ended with a close Irish victory. Another interesting situation involves two teams fighting for NCAA Tournament consideration, N.C. State and Pittsburgh. Each school picked up a nice win over a ranked opponent last weekend but both the Wolfpack and the Panthers remain a game below .500 in the standings. That’s where the similarities end, though, as N.C. State has been the far better team in possession-based performance, with Pittsburgh’s defense surprisingly ranked as the league’s worst.

There are once again no match-ups involving two of the ACC’s five elite teams on the schedule this weekend. In the only game involving two teams with winning conference records, Louisville travels to Miami (Saturday @ 2:00 PM ET – ESPN) in a crucial game for the Hurricanes and their NCAA Tourney hopes. There are also a couple of games that feature an ACC heavyweight hosting a school that’s looking to get over the .500 mark, as Clemson visits Duke (Saturday @ 4:00 PM ET – ESPN), and Virginia entertains Florida State (Sunday @ 6:30 PM ET – ESPNU). In another important contest, Pittsburgh needs to win at Syracuse (Saturday @ Noon ET – ACCN) to keep any hope alive of making the Dance.

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1. Raleigh News & Observer: Wow! What a game. It was far from pretty, but Duke‘s win over North Carolina delivered on all of the hype. My thoughts on the game: Duke played better for the majority of it, but the Blue Devils committed some costly turnovers, missed a number of foul shots and gave up enough open shots enough to give North Carolina a chance to steal the game. Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson were almost able to pull it off (and maybe with a more active whistle down the stretch, they would have), but this game made me much more comfortable with North Carolina as a top-15 team because the Tar Heels nearly won on the road while getting virtually nothing from Marcus Paige. The article has great stuff from Barry Jacobs on why the first game was so late in the schedule this year, and he also takes a look at Virginia.
2. College Basketball Talk: This is a good look from Rob Dauster on Virginia‘s play without Justin Anderson. The most noticeable hole on the team is with its perimeter shooting (along with its best option for getting his own shot). Evan Nolte is getting a lot more minutes in his absence, though, which should help if Anderson gets in foul trouble in March. It will be really unfortunate if Anderson’s injury ultimately sidelines the most recent ACC national title contender (I know Duke is also in that conversation, but Virginia has been better this season). Without a healthy Anderson, the Cavaliers will be left in the annals of some other conference “what if?” teams like 2011 Duke and 2012 North Carolina.
3. Louisville Courier-Journal: Louisville may be headed for disaster, as the Cardinals suspended Chris Jones indefinitely and Rick Pitino doesn’t sound too eager to allow him back on the court. Without their senior point guard in the lineup, the Cards lost to Syracuse in the Carrier Dome last night and are now on the outside of a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. With games against Notre Dame and Virginia still left on the schedule, things aren’t going to get easier from here on out. Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell are reportedly calling a dreaded “players’ meeting” to get the team back on track.
4. Boston College Heights: Olivier Hanlan doesn’t have a lot of support around him this season. Everyone knew that was the case coming into the year but it was painfully obvious in Boston College’s most recent loss to Florida State. Hanlan has scored 30 or more points in three of his last four games; he plays brutal minutes (39 minutes per game in ACC play); and he doesn’t really have any other options to look for spot-ups on his penetration. I’m hoping we’re due for another Hanlan explosion in the ACC Tournament this year.
5. Gwinnett Daily Post: Speaking of suspensions, Chris Bolden has been sidelined indefinitely for Brian Gregory’s team. It’s generous to call Bolden streaky (he’s experienced far more slumps than hot streaks), but he was one of the few Yellow Jackets always at the ready to heave threes. The other, slightly more efficient long-range shooter on the team is 6’9 Quinton Stephens. Georgia Tech doesn’t have much on the line at this point since legitimate postseason play appears out of reach.

EXTRA (via Spartanburg Herald Journal): Some really sad news out of Clemson as former Tiger Chris Hobbs passed away last weekend. Hobbs was only 33. He finished his career at Clemson in 2004 (Oliver Purnell’s first season), and he was a tough player, starting from the beginning on admittedly disappointing Clemson teams.

The big story of the weekend was that two middle-of-the-pack ACC teams got huge resume-building wins. Pittsburgh dominated North Carolina at the Petersen Events Center Saturday afternoon, and N.C. State picked up a surprising road win at Louisville later that same day. Conference leader Virginia had to hang on to edge Wake Forest by a single point in Charlottesville, and Duke rallied from a double-figure first half deficit to win at Syracuse. In other weekend action, Clemson easily handled visiting Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech lost yet another heart-breaker, this time at home to Florida State. There was only one game scheduled on Sunday, but Miami’s game at Boston College had to be postponed until today. Here are some of the other highlights from the ACC’s weekend action.

Michael Gbinjie had a career-high 27 points against his former team.
(Dennis Nett/Syracuse.com)

• Best Win: It’s hard to say for sure, but N.C. State’s win over Louisville in the KFC Yum! Center could be more important than its earlier home win over rival Duke. While its fans obviously wouldn’t trade the two wins, this victory filled a major hole in N.C. State’s postseason resume. The victory proved that the Wolfpack can win on the road against high level competition, and they did it with a solid all-around performance: outscoring Louisville in the paint (32-16), only committing eight turnovers and holding stars Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to a combined 14 points and 3-of-15 shooting. Anthony Barber led the way for the Pack with 21 points, his third 20-plus scoring game in the team’s last four outings.
• Worst Loss: It’s been an emotional seven days for North Carolina’s basketball program, starting with last weekend’s passing of legendary former head coach Dean Smith. With all the attention that came with that situation it’s certainly understandable that the Tar Heels were a little flat on Saturday. But some of the problems on display at Pittsburgh over the weekend are not one-game issues. North Carolina’s defensive points per possession mark in ACC play is now up to 1.06, which is surprising considering that the Tar Heels returned much of last year’s group that finished at a very good 1.01 PPP. Even more disturbing is that opponents have scored at an way-too-easy 1.15 PPP rate over the last five games.

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