Pac-12 M5: 10.19.12 Edition

Posted by Connor Pelton on October 19th, 2012

  1. A judge dismissed a defamation lawsuit brought forth by current Los Angeles Laker and former UCLA Bruin, Reeves Nelson, on Thursday. Nelson sued Sports Illustrated and writer George Dohrmann after the story, “Not The UCLA Way” ran last March. Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Mary Ann Murphy found that the lawsuit infringed on the right to free speech, not to mention Dohrmann had numerous sources to back up the claims made against Nelson. The story cited accounts from Bruins players and staff members who alleged Nelson urinated on players’ clothes and got into numerous fights with teammates, while also mistreating team managers and walk-ons. Nelson was kicked off the UCLA team last December, three months before the story ran.
  2. With that out of the way, we’re going to designate this “Preview Friday” here at the Pac-12 wing of RTC. We start with a look at the league from CollegeBasketballTalk, who thinks the increased talent brought into the conference this season will lead to a better product and more respect nationally. To narrow down the important stuff, the story gives us 13 impact newcomers to watch, five breakout players, a player of the year, a coach under pressure, and an all-conference team. In the projected standings category, CBT throws us for a loop by slotting UCLA at third behind Arizona and Stanford. Colorado, California, and USC round out the upper half.
  3. Each preseason there is usually a conference with more coaches on the hot seat than the rest of them, and it comes as no surprise after last year’s awful play that the Pac-12 trumps all of them in 2012-13Johnny Dawkins. Craig RobinsonHerb Sendek. Even former California head man Ben Braun makes the list. What’s really interesting is that all three coaches have gotten on their hot seats through different circumstances. Not too long ago on The Farm, Stanford was a basketball powerhouse, and the fact that Dawkins hasn’t made an NCAA Tournament in his four seasons there doesn’t sit well with Cardinal fans. That NIT Championship last April? Just means you should take the next step this year. Craig Robinson’s Oregon State Beavers have been somewhat of a bust after winning the CBI in his first season. With four returning starters, Robinson needs to get the Beavs to the NIT this year. And in Tempe, Herb Sendek gave Arizona State fans a taste of victory by winning 20+ games in three consecutive seasons. But just 22 wins over the last two years has his seat scorching going into 2012-13.
  4. CBSSports national preseason honors list features a pair of UCLA freshmen. Jeff Goodman and Gary Parrish named forward Shabazz Muhammad the National Freshman of the Year, a member of the All-First Team roster, and All-Freshman First Team roster. Bruin point guard Kyle Anderson comes in on the fourth team All-American roster and first team All-Freshmen list.
  5. We end with a terrific Pac-12 Preview, straight from the Jon Rothstein files. Included are five burning questions facing the conference, preseason power rankings, a first team roster, and 10 breakout players, among other things. Be sure to check back throughout the day as we continue Preview Friday with an in-depth Oregon preview and our second burning question of the preseason.
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Pac-12 M5: 10.18.12 Edition

Posted by Connor Pelton on October 18th, 2012

  1. The USA Today Preseason Poll came out yesterday, sign #217 that actual games are quickly approaching. As expected, both Arizona and UCLA were ranked in the Top 15, but the Wildcats ranked two spots ahead of the Bruins came as a surprise to most. It appears that more and more of the voters/national media are under the impression that Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson will miss significant time in 2012-13 due to the current NCAA investigation. Following Arizona and UCLA at #11 and #13, respectively, is Stanford, who comes in at #37 in the “Also Receiving Votes” category. The Cardinal certainly have the talent to be there, but seeing no California or Colorado along with those two was interesting. Be sure to check back later today as Kevin will break down the Pac-12’s involvement in the poll.
  2. One of the top Class of 2013 power forwards will take an official visit Arizona this weekend. Aaron Gordon, out of Archbishop Mitty High School (CA), will attend the Washington-Arizona football game on Saturday before taking in the Red-Blue game Sunday afternoon. The younger brother of former UCLA and New Mexico star Drew Gordon, Aaron’s athleticism makes him the most sought after player on the west coast. He is most comfortable at the four, but can also score from the wing if needed. Gordon won’t announce his college decision until spring, but it looks as if he has narrowed down his choices to Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Kansas, and Kentucky. He will take an official visit to Lexington sometime later in the year.
  3. Shabazz Muhammad. Kyle Anderson. Adria Gasol? The latter might not be as well-known as the rest of the Bruin freshmen class, but being the brother of Pau and Marc, he certainly draws interest. Gasol will walk on with UCLA this season, but it is unlikely that he sees any meaningful minutes in his first year with the program. The Dagger’s Jeff Eisenberg describes him as appearing “lost on the court” and “shows a serious lack of basketball fundamentals.” So, not exactly words that ooze Pac-12 basketball player, but he will be a fun story to follow throughout the winter.
  4. Yesterday we told you power forward Marcus Lee would be choosing between California and Kentucky in the morning, and unfortunately for Pac-12 fans, the Deer Valley High School (CA) prospect is headed to the Bluegrass State. We knew things didn’t look good when Lee decided to forgo his visit to California this weekend after attending Big Blue Madness last Friday. Lee is the fifth member of John Calipari’s 2013 recruiting class, joining the likes of the number one point guard in the nation along with the top two shooting guards.
  5. We’re back to the gridiron tonight with a sure to be entertaining Thursday night affair between Oregon and Arizona State, and that means it is time for Drew and I to renew our prognosticating battle. Drew has come all the way back to tie our competition up through seven weeks of play, so every game is even more important from here on out. Last week’s results leave both of us at 39-15. Below are this week’s picks, with our predicted scores for our game of the week in bold.
    Game Connor’s Pick Drew’s Pick
    Oregon at Arizona State Oregon 49-21 Oregon 47-31
    Stanford at California California Stanford
    Colorado at USC USC USC
    Washington at Arizona Arizona Arizona
    Utah at Oregon State Oregon State Oregon State
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Running Down the Top Pac-12 Non-Conference Games: Take Three

Posted by AMurawa on October 16th, 2012

Last week, a pair of my colleagues here posted their lists of five non-conference games featuring Pac-12 teams to watch. To be clear, Connor Pelton’s list was of the five most watchable games on the slate, while Kevin Danna’s list was the five most important games. Today I’ll tell you the games that Connor and Kevin missed on their respective lists and tell you why these games need to be right there among the best of the Pac-12’s non-conference games.

First, Kevin picked the following five games as the most important non-conference games:

  1. USC vs. Illinois
  2. UCLA vs. Georgetown
  3. Stanford vs. Missouri
  4. California at Wisconsin
  5. Florida at Arizona

Now, to be sure, those are by no means a bad slate of games. And, given the state in which we last saw Pac-12 basketball, any games its member institutions play in the non-conference should be considered very important, as the league tries to re-establish its national credibility. That being said, I’m looking for one of two things in ranking the importance of non-conference games: Either match-ups of elite teams against teams that figure to be highly ranked come March, or match-ups of middle-of-the-Pac teams against other potential bubblicious teams. Kevin nailed a couple of the first type here, especially with the UCLA/Georgetown Legends Classic semifinal that will not only give the Bruins a chance to score a solid win over a solid Big East team, but could also give the squad a chance to score a major RPI booster against Indiana in the final of that tournament. Likewise, if Arizona can take care of Florida, that should be a nice feather in the Wildcats’ cap come Selection Sunday, especially considering their otherwise ordinary (at best) non-conference slate.

Kevin does a great job picking out a couple other key early season tournament games, with USC needing to open its run in the Maui Invitational with a win over Illinois in order to give the Trojans a chance at other big names deeper in that tourney. Stanford is in a similar situation in the loaded Battle 4 Atlantis tourney. Really, there’s not a lot on his list to argue with, but I’d pick out a couple other games that could be harbingers of what is to come on Selection Sunday.

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Pac-12 M5: 10.15.12 Edition

Posted by Connor Pelton on October 15th, 2012

  1. With the departure of Tony Wroten, Jr., Washington is currently without a defined leader on the team. When asked who might be the face of the team after the second day of practice, senior guard Abdul Gaddy replied “The team is the face of the team.” That’s a stark change from last season, when Wroten was the go-to guy whenever the Dawgs needed a late bucket or to break out of a dry spell on offense. There’s certainly no problem with having no set leader going into the season; after all, it’s one of the bigger clichés in college sports that every team needs one of them. As long as someone, whether C.J. Wilcox, Scott Suggs or whoever, is willing to have the ball in their hands in the waning minutes and has the ability to make a play, there’s no problem. However, there is such a thing as being too unselfish, and close wins will soon become losses if that happens in Seattle this winter. The Huskies will play their one and only exhibition game on October 24 against Western Washington.
  2. Oregon State finished the month of March last season with a record of 6-2, an eight-game stretch in which leading scorer Jared Cunningham didn’t play very well. With Cunningham now playing for the Dallas Mavericks, that stretch gives Beaver fans the hope that players like Ahmad Starks, Devon Collier, and Angus Brandt can keep up the same offensive output without their star guard. Even more important than the trio above, however, will be the play of junior shooting guard Roberto Nelson. Nelson will be the Beavers’ only non-starter-turned-starter from a year ago, but he did play in all 36 games. According to head coach Craig Robinson, Nelson has matured and built on the experience gained from playing in each and every contest as a sophomore, and is ready to take the next step needed in 2012-13.
  3. Just one year removed from a cancer scare before the start of practice, California head coach Mike Montgomery is healthy and ready for the 2012-13 season to tip off. The tone was much different last year at this time, as Montgomery underwent surgery October 19 for bladder cancer, and subsequently he was declared cancer free and able to work the entirety of his 31st season as a head coach. The Golden Bears were the only Pac-12 team to gain an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament last season, and if they are to return it will be behind the play of sophomore guard Ricky Kreklow and junior guard Allen Crabbe. Both are strong shooters but need to show the ability to get to the free throw line more if the Bears are to compete for a Pac-12 championship.
  4. The air is crisp, the leaves are turning, and practices across the nation are beginning. That means it’s time for some preseason predictions. Bruce Pascoe of the Arizona Daily Star, like everyone else around the country, said that he’s been wrestling on whether to put Arizona or UCLA at the top of the Pac this year. He eventually went with Ben Howland’s Bruins, with Arizona and the two Bay Area schools rounding out the upper third of the league race.
  5. We close with some recruiting news, and some big news at that. Class of 2013 small forward Jabari Parker, largely considered to be the top recruit in the nation, named Stanford as one of his final five schools on Friday. Parker’s ability to score from anywhere on the offensive end of the floor makes him this year’s can’t-miss prospect. The Simeon Career Academy (IL) product is also considering BYU, Duke, Florida, and Michigan State. Noticeably missing is Kentucky, who just got verbals from the second and fourth best players in the country on October 4 in the Harrison twins.
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Pac-12’s Five Most Watchable Non-Conference Games – Why They’re Better

Posted by Connor Pelton on October 12th, 2012

On Wednesday, Kevin released his list of the five most important Pac-12 non-conference games of the season, and a few weeks back, I released my own rankings. This post will explain why my top five games are better than Kevin’s, but first, let’s see where his games fall on my list:

Here’s a Hint (credit: Wikipedia)

5. Florida @ Arizona (My Rank: 5)
4. California @ Wisconsin (2)
3. Stanford vs Missouri (28)
2. UCLA vs Georgetown (11)
1. USC vs Illinois (25)

And now, my top five:

5. Florida @ Arizona (December 15) – This is the one game we agree on, so there’s nothing to argue about here. This will likely be a battle of Top 15 teams when the Gators venture into the McKale Center, making it a must-see contest. It will be Florida’s second trip to the desert in the 2012 calendar year, the first being a two-game split in the NCAA Tournament last March. They’ll be looking for revenge after being upset at home last year by Sean Miller and company, 78-72 loss in overtime.

4. Oregon State vs Kansas (November 30) – Without question, this will be Oregon State’s biggest non-conference game in recent memory. And depending on how they do in the 2K Sports Classic earlier in the month, a win could mean a clean non-conference slate for the Beavers heading into Pac-12 play. In their way will be a raucous Sprint Center crowd, not to mention the combination of Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey. This game doesn’t make Kevin’s list, instead it’s California-Wisconsin, a matchup we’ll break down in just a moment.

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Pac-12’s Five Most Important Non-Conference Games

Posted by KDanna on October 10th, 2012

The best thing about October isn’t watching football or the MLB playoffs; no, it’s all about analyzing college basketball non-conference schedules. Where are the potential RPI boosts? Trap games? Guarantee ones? So many possibilities for those ’12 or ’13 tilts!

But way out west, promise has quickly turned into embarrassment in November and December for the Pac-12 in recent years. Last season, the Pac went 9-38 against teams that finished the regular season in the RPI Top-100 and 3-28 against those finishing 50th or above, according to realtimerpi.com. Numbers like those are why Washington didn’t get an at-large bid even as the conference’s regular-season champion. So, it goes without saying that the first two months of the season are HUGE for a conference like the Pac-12 to regain respect around the college basketball world. With that in mind, we’re ready to begin circling some dates to keep an eye on in the conference calendar. Here are my choices for the five most important non-conference games for the Pac in 2012-13, in order of appearance:

Maui Invitational

USC Will Represent The Pac-12 At The Maui Invitational This Year (Alex Prosperi, EA Sports Maui Invitational)

1. USC vs. Illinois (November 19) – Talk about the ultimate RPI-boost game. Illinois is the Trojans’ first-round opponent of the Maui Invitational, which means a certain D-II team will be lurking in the consolation bracket. If the Trojans beat the Illini, they get to play Texas, another high-quality RPI opponent. If the Trojans lose… that’s right, Chaminade is up next (assuming Texas doesn’t Oklahoma 2010-11 it). In case you were wondering, the Silverswords are not a high-quality RPI opponent. Neither the Trojans nor the Illini are coming off storybook seasons (USC went 1-17 in an extremely down Pac-12, while Illinois absolutely imploded, finishing the season 2-12 after a 15-3 start), but a little early-season karma can do a body of work good. And, we’ll get a chance to see just how much difference USC’s new faces (like Ari Stewart, J.T. Terrell and Eric Wise) and newly healthy returnees (with senior point guard Jio Fontan exhibit A) can make.

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Pac-12 M5: 10.09.12 Edition

Posted by AMurawa on October 9th, 2012

  1. Way back on April 11, Shabazz Muhammad signed with UCLA, guaranteeing Ben Howland one of the year’s best recruiting classes and boosting the hopes of Bruins’ fans. While there have been some good moments since then (such as when Tony Parker eventually committed to UCLA as well), now nearly six months later, the Bruins are on a bit of a losing streak even though they have yet to play a game. They learned yesterday that returning starter Tyler Lamb will miss at least a month while recovering from knee surgery. Throw that on top of the NCAA investigations into Muhammad and fellow recruits Parker and Kyle Anderson, along with bad news from Joshua Smith’s scale, and there is some concern as to where this season is going. However, on the bright side, Lamb will likely be back soon after the season begins, and even if UCLA plays without him for a handful of games, sophomore guard Norman Powell should be ready and willing to step in and use the available minutes to make his case for more playing time.
  2. As for the other question marks mentioned above, UCLA fans are hoping to get some positive answers. First, on the matter of Joshua Smith’s diet, once again progress is being reported. Though there is still no one that will actually go on record with a three-digit number meant to accurately represent his weight, Smith claims that his body fat percentage is down from 25% when he came to campus two years ago to just 17% today, with a future goal of 10%. Still, at this point, especially given last year’s often lackluster effort, college basketball fans will largely take a wait-and-see approach to Smith’s waistline. Meanwhile, Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson have begun preliminary workouts with the Bruins despite the fact that the NCAA has yet to rule on their eligibility. This means (correct me if I am wrong) that for the next 45 days, these guys are eligible to practice with the team and play in games. Once those 45 days expire, either they must be cleared or they must stop working out with the team until their investigations are resolved. The scuttlebutt is that Anderson will be cleared by the NCAA (although, until that actually happens, Bruins fans have every right to be nervous), while any guess on Muhammad’s eventual status is just that, a guess.
  3. Lamb’s knee surgery isn’t the only big injury news around the conference. California head coach Mike Montgomery announced on Monday that sophomore guard Ricky Kreklow underwent surgery on his right foot and will be out of action for up to two months. Kreklow transferred into Berkeley after spending one season at Missouri, where he shot 28.3% from three in limited minutes as a freshman in 2010-11. After sitting out last season per NCAA rules, the former Mr. Basketball in Missouri in 2010 was expected to jump into the Golden Bear starting lineup this season as a three-point shooting specialist, but instead will have to serve as a midseason reinforcement. Coupled with the transfers of guards Alex Rossi and Emerson Murray this offseason, the Bears now find themselves slightly shorthanded in the backcourt, with returning starters Justin Cobbs and Allen Crabbe being joined by Brandon Smith and freshman Tyrone Wallace. The injury could mean that instead of employing a three-guard starting lineup of Cobbs, Crabbe and Kreklow, Cal could opt to go bigger along the front line. Stay tuned.
  4. Last week, the consensus #1 player in the 2013 recruiting class, Jabari Parker, narrowed his list of potential schools down to five. This is important for Pac-12 fans for a couple of different reasons. First, and foremost, Stanford is one of the quintet of schools remaining as possible landing spots for the versatile wing. Johnny Dawkins already has commitments from the Allen twins (Marcus and Malcolm), but adding an elite recruit the level of Parker would bring a whole different level of recruit to The Farm. The other bit of interest about Parker involves Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak, who apparently was shown on a Salt Lake City television station talking about Parker, a potential NCAA violation. However, Rob Dauster argues that since the Utes no longer stand a chance of landing Parker (the Utes are not among his final five), Krystkowiak can get off on a technicality. Still, the coach should know better.
  5. It’s not all bumbles and stumbles along the recruiting trail for Krystkowiak, however, as the Utah head man continues his pursuit of Michael Williams, a 6’2” point guard out of Texas. He just finished an official visit with the program last week and now will decide between the Utes, TCU and Penn. The fact that those are the other schools in on Williams’ recruitment indicates that he’s not likely to be a player who makes a huge impact, but he is a bigger lead guard than anybody currently on the roster with Glen Dean and Brandon Taylor both checking in under six feet. Krystkowiak already has a couple 2013 shooting guard commitments, while also chasing Las Vegas point guard Julian Jacobs and southern California lead guard Brandon Randolph.
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California’s Student-Athlete Bill of Rights Could Lead to More Frequent Government-Backed Forays into NCAA Policy

Posted by Chris Johnson on September 28th, 2012

Chris Johnson is an RTC columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.

The wave of appeals to change the NCAA’s amateurism model, and increasing scrutiny therein, is not a new phenomenon. Various ethical questions and proposals were raised in different forms and distinctions over the years as the framework of the modern college athletic scape was tested by a series of scandals. Most recently, the organization has come under sharp criticism for its perceived inaction against Duke and North Carolina, two preeminent programs where an overwhelming swath of evidence points to severe allegations – one academic (UNC) and one amateur-related (Duke). The backlash is as much a byproduct of a widespread desire to see the Tar Heels and Blue Devils face punishment as it is a critique of the NCAA’s approach. But for the most part, the public outcry deals not with the organization’s failure to swing around its punitive heft, but the very structure from which it derives its power. There is a general disagreement with the notion that the organization can leverage the competitive product offered by its athletes – by securing lucrative media rights deals and showcasing its athletes on national networks – without actually compensating those athletes. Fundamental moral reasoning is invoked to criticize the revenue-producing college athlete’s inability to advance himself financially (beyond what’s already provided by athletic scholarships). Free market principles, along with appeals to the decades-old literary-conceived “American Dream” concept, are conjured up to blast the NCAA’s apparent limitations. Whatever the origin or direction of their complaints, the NCAA has weathered a diverse range of challenges to its ruling power, challenges that for the most part have fallen on deaf ears.

With Brown signing into effect the Student Athlete Bill of Rights, the door has been cracked open for future government intervention in NCAA policy (photo credit: Lucy Nicholson/ Reuters).

For years the organization occupied something of an impenetrable perch of incontrovertible truth, as if its methods and guidelines were beyond reproach. But lately, we’ve witnessed a gradual chipping away of that unquestioned status. The Ed O’Bannon lawsuit, which has the potential to dismantle the NCAA’s amateurism structure once and for all (and is scheduled to go on trial in early 2014), is building considerable momentum in advance of what figures to be the landmark athletics court case of the 21st century. An improved public understanding of the organization’s practices and rules has fanned the anti-NCAA flame. Prominent columnists and sports commentators have made bashing the NCAA a monthly, even weekly, practice. The mounting scorn could soon reach a tipping point. Another authoritative challenge materialized Thursday, this time from a ruling body whose power decidedly trumps that which rules college athletics. California governor Jerry Brown signed into law a powerful piece of legislation devised specifically to address student-athletes at the state’s four Pac-12 schools. It’s called the “Student-Athlete Bill of Rights,” and it connotes exactly what you might expect. Much like the document our Founding Fathers concocted amidst the fight against British tyranny – only slightly less primal, and not nearly as influential, of course – the bill secures fundamental freedoms for student athletes beginning in 2013.

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Morning Five: 09.28.12 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on September 28th, 2012

  1. And so it begins? The NCAA has fairly or unfairly taken a beating in recent months over its handling of just about everything from its use of player likenesses to academic scandals to jewelry purchases to replacement refs (ok, maybe not the last one). For the most part, the federal and state governments have kept their noses out of it, preferring to let the NCAA as a private organization operate under its own auspices. But with billions of dollars flowing through the nation’s top athletic universities via lucrative sports media deals, and a general sentiment held by the public that the NCAA fosters an environment of exploiting its student-athletes, California governor Jerry Brown on Thursday signed a bill called the “Student-Athlete Bill of Rights.” This new law, which by virtue of their size will only impact the four Pac-12 schools located in the Golden State, will require greater protections for the players at those schools in terms of medical coverage, scholarship guarantees, and due process. The law is the first of its kind in the nation, and other states are no doubt watching closely to determine if they want to follow suit. We’ll have more on this interesting and important topic later today.
  2. Luke Winn has been in his Brooklyn-based math lab crunching the numbers in anticipation of the new college basketball season, and as always, his insights answer questions that most people didn’t even know they had. In his latest piece at SI.com, Winn explores the “exploitable gap” in balancing the scheduling of non-conference games for the purpose of maximum RPI juice while not particularly taxing the team in its bottom line (taking losses). He finds two case studies of “Scheduleball” to illustrate his point — Pittsburgh under Jamie Dixon, and Colorado State under Tim Miles — with each showing how the formula of scheduling top 50 and top 100 opponents and avoiding games against teams in the bottom 100 of the RPI is a key recipe for success. There are other ways to manipulate schedules to your RPI advantage, of course, but as Winn clearly argues, as long as the formula continues to use winning percentage as a proxy for schedule strength, there will continue to be flaws in the RPI system.
  3. While we continue on the theme of smart people doing smart things, the US Supreme Court will reconvene for its October term on Capitol Hill next week. One of the most controversial cases that it will consider next month has gotten the notice of many head coaches around the game because the issue involves the holistic approach of using race as a factor in college admissions decisions. While the cynics out there might believe that the self-interested coaches are merely trying to protect their own players in their defense of affirmative action, the truth is that athletes are usually admitted through other loopholes anyway. But their interest in the law (last upheld by SCOTUS in 2003) is to ensure a diverse campus environment that their players will find welcoming beyond the basketball court. This can play a huge role in recruiting, especially when often dealing with athletes largely from minority communities. Oral arguments will occur on October 10 with a decision due next spring.
  4. Alabama head coach Anthony Grant has gradually improved his Crimson Tide program since arriving in Tuscaloosa just over three years ago. His first team struggled, but he followed that up with an NIT runner-up finish in 2010-11 and an NCAA appearance in 2011-12, the school’s first since 2006. His teams get after it defensively and there’s no reason to believe given this recruiting and coaching abilities that the Tide will drop off from the NCAA level anytime soon. His bosses have noticed, as Grant was rewarded this week with a one-year extension through the 2018-19 season and a raise to $1.9 million per year (ahem, still well below Nick Saban’s  $5.6 million per year deal). With many of the traditional “SEC West” basketball programs still in transition, Grant has a golden opportunity over the next five years to turn Alabama into the top program in that geographic slice of the conference.
  5. We’ll finish with something from earlier this week on Ken Pomeroy‘s site. According to the stats guru, there were only 17 games last season where a team had less than a one percent chance of winning at any point during the game and came back to do so. The only game most of us were likely to have watched finished at #8 on his list — the early February Duke vs. North Carolina game in Chapel Hill — also known as the Austin Rivers shot game. With UNC up 10 points and 2:38 remaining on the clock, Pomeroy’s win probability states that the Blue Devils at that point only had a 0.62% chance to win the game. For those of us more accustomed to Vegas-style odds to make sense of the world, that converts to a 1-in-162 chance. And yet, “Duke would have just five possessions left and went 3, 3, 2, 2, 3 to finish.”  And remember, that game represents only the eighth least likely comeback — get over there to read about the 16 others.
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Pac-12 Weekly Five: 09.27.12

Posted by AMurawa on September 27th, 2012

  1. Yesterday we told you about Reggie Moore’s sudden dismissal from the Washington State program on the doorstep of the season, but Oregon has also had a bit of a shakeup on its roster over the past week. Dana Altman landed Rice transfer Arsalan Kazemi this week as well as junior college transfer Waverly Austin, while saying goodbye to another JuCo transfer, Devon Branch, who had yet to actually put on an Oregon uniform. Of the three, the biggest news is the addition of Kazemi, the nation’s first Iranian-born Division I player, who also happens to be one of the most underrated players in the nation. In three years at Rice, he never finished lower than #37 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, taking second as a sophomore and third as a junior (according to KenPom.com). Kazemi will apply for a hardship waiver from the NCAA to become able to play this season, but if denied, he will play his senior year in 2013-14 in Eugene. If eligible for the Ducks this season, he should step immediately into the starting lineup, giving UO an imposing and experienced front line, made up perhaps of Tony Woods, E.J. Singler and Kazemi, three seniors. As for Austin, he’s a 6’11” center who averaged 14.8 points, 9.3 boards and almost three blocks per game last season at Palm Beach State College on his way to earning JuCo All-American honors. He originally committed to South Florida but was denied admission, although he has qualified by NCAA standards (it raises the question about whether USF really has higher standards than UO). It never hurts to have more size, and Austin could wind up having a major impact for the Ducks this season.
  2. The Ducks also landed a pair of intriguing ’13 recruits this week as well when they got commitments from twins Tyree and Tyrell Robinson. The pair of recruits from San Diego are, however, first and foremost football recruits who will play for Chip Kelly’s vaunted Oregon team. But once that season ends (given how good UO is, expect that to usually be in January sometime), the Robinsons will give up the helmet and shoulder pads for baggy shorts and tank tops. While both are expected to be serious contributors on the gridiron, their late arrival to the hardwood could limit their growth, but both players are talented. Tyree is the better of the two, a physical shooting guard who is great off the dribble and capable of knocking down the three, but neither of these guys should be considered elite basketball prospects. At best, they’ll likely be contributors off the bench for the Ducks.
  3. Elsewhere on the recruiting trail, California continues to work towards scoring a big 2013 class. With Jabari Bird and Jordan Matthews already in the fold, head coach Mike Montgomery is heavily involved with a number of other elite recruits, ranging from Aaron Gordon to Jabari Parker to Julius Randle and others. But for one recruit, the Golden Bears have reached finalist status. Marcus Lee, a 6’8” top 30 recruit from Cal’s backyard has narrowed his decision down to the Berkeley campus or John Calipari and Kentucky. But, as Rob Dauster points out, UK is already well on its way to a strong 2013 class of its own, so if Lee chooses Lexington, he could be in a dogfight for playing time. Let’s go ahead and pencil Lee in as a Golden Bear.
  4. Lastly, there was good news for UCLA fans reported last week by Adam Zagoria. According to a post on Zag’s Blog, he expects Kyle Anderson will be cleared to play by the NCAA. Anderson’s amateurism has been under investigation by the NCAA due to concerns over his relationship with agent Thad Foucher, but apparently the NCAA has been unable to find any evidence of improper benefits. That leaves classmate Shabazz Muhammad as the next big domino for UCLA head coach Ben Howland. Muhammad remains under investigation for financial benefits that he received from Benjamin Lincoln and Ken Kavanagh, two guys who Muhammad’s family claims as “family friends.” As of yet, there is no new information on the Muhammad investigation.
  5. So, after four weeks of college football, Connor holds a four-game lead over me in our prognostication battle. As we shift now to primarily conference battles the rest of the way, we’ll have fewer games to pick, but hopefully they’ll be, by and large, more competitive. Here’s our picks for this week, with our game of the week pick in bold:
Game Connor’s Pick Drew’s Pick
Stanford at Washington Stanford Washington
Arizona State at California California Arizona State
Oregon at Washington State Oregon Oregon
Oregon State at Arizona Oregon State 30-27 Arizona 27-24
UCLA at Colorado UCLA UCLA

 

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