Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

NOTES FROM THIS UPDATE:

• Although the graphic below does not reflect it, the brackets should be set up to allow for a true national title game, meaning Louisville (the top overall seed) and Gonzaga would not meet until the national title game. Louisville (MW) and Kansas (S) would have their regions matched up and so would Gonzaga (W) and Indiana (E).
• My debate about Ole Miss ended in a thud on Sunday when the Rebels knocked off Florida. Mississippi is in. Good for them, even for arrogant Marshall Henderson.
• I went back and forth between a ton of teams for my First Four in spots. Remember, everyone seems to be picking a La Salle/Tennessee and Boise State/Saint Mary’s game. Almost everyone! So, why would I pick that? I’m going Saint Mary’s/Tennessee and Boise State/Iowa State.
• I was asked earlier if I was nervous about losing my streak of never incorrectly picking a No. 1 seed. Of course! I have a really bad feeling Duke could ruin it for me this year.

LAST FOUR IN: Boise State, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, Tennessee (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Massachusetts, Baylor, Iowa

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

NOTES FROM THIS UPDATE:

• Louisville is the new No. 1 overall seed in my bracket after dominating Syracuse to win the Big East Tournament Saturday night. Duke slides to a No. 2 seed after Kansas won the Big 12 Tournament. The Blue Devils have the better wins, but I’d rather put a team that was a double champion (regular season & conference tournament champion) above a team that didn’t win either one in the ACC. I feel like Duke has consistently been given the benefit of the doubt due to Ryan Kelly’s injury, but the Blue Devils’ second loss to Maryland showed that this team can lose to bad teams even with Kelly in the lineup.
• Although the graphic below does not reflect it, the brackets should be set up to allow for a true national title game, meaning Louisville (the top overall seed) and Gonzaga would not meet until the national title game. Louisville (MW) and Kansas (S) would have their regions matched up and so would Gonzaga (W) and Indiana (E).
• Mississippi reached the SEC Tournament final by defeating Vanderbilt on Saturday. I have the Rebels as my last team out of the field. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky (my last team in) head-to-head (although Nerlens Noel was playing) and lacks the great win the Wildcats have (Florida). Fortunately for the Rebels, they get a chance to change that later this afternoon against Florida. If Andy Kennedy’s team wins that game, we won’t have to worry about their bubble popping because they will already be in the NCAA Tournament field.
• I also still have Tennessee in. The Volunteers defeated Kentucky by 30 in their last meeting and have the best wins in the SEC outside of Florida’s. Although Mississippi swept the Vols, Tennessee lacks the awful losses that the Rebels have (South Carolina, Mississippi State).  Besides, if Ole Miss and Vanderbilt were playing in a normal game on a weeknight, nobody would care (like when they played on January 15 — nobody cared then that the Rebels won). Just because the Rebels won in the SEC Tournament semifinals, it does not guarantee them a bid and it doesn’t mean more than their earlier win over Vanderbilt. In my opinion, the Rebels need to win the SEC Tournament to secure a bid.
• Tomorrow, look for teams like Baylor, Maryland, and Middle Tennessee to start getting tossed around as names to replace Ole Miss and other teams near the bottom of the bracket. I think the Blue Raiders have the best shot out of those three to get in, based off the Selection Committee’s decision to place VCU, UAB, Iona, and BYU in the field in First Four games the last two seasons.
• This is not my final update, although my final update may look a lot like this. A lot just depends on how I’m feeling later today. I know that sounds silly, but I trust my gut when it comes to Selection Sunday.

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Kentucky(last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi (first team out), Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Massachusetts, Baylor, Iowa

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

New in This Update:

• A lot of things happened on Friday. First, let’s recap the bubble: Alabama knocked off Tennessee. La Salle fell at Butler. Kentucky was blown out by Vanderbilt. Iowa blew a big lead to Michigan State. Ole Miss won a tight game with Missouri. Maryland upset Duke. I realize that Tennessee is now 2-4 against the other SEC bubble teams (ALA, KY, MISS) but the Vols also have the best overall profile out of those four teams. For now, I’m leaving the Vols in my field. Kentucky is still in, as the last team in. Why? Most people do not realize that the Wildcats’ best two wins of the season came without Nerlens Noel in the lineup, against Missouri and Florida. La Salle also stays in. The later in the day it got, the more the Explorers’ chance to dance increased due to the afternoon/night upsets. Alabama has a huge opportunity on Saturday. With a win on a neutral floor against Florida, Alabama would move into my field. Mississippi needs to make the SEC final and hope Alabama falls to Florida, because the Rebels will not gain anything by playing Vanderbilt. Maryland now owns two wins against Duke, but the Terrapins’ fourth-best win this year is Stony Brook. That’s not to hate on the Seawolves. It’s meant to show that the Terrapins probably need to win the ACC Tournament to get an at-large bid because their overall profile is probably just not good enough to get an at-large bid.
• At the top of the bracket, Georgetown’s loss to Syracuse moved the Hoyas down to a No. 2 seed. Louisville is now my fourth No. 1, with a chance to improve upon that in the Big East Tournament Championship Saturday. Duke is my third No. 1 after losing to Maryland. For the time being, Gonzaga is my No. 1 overall seed, but that will change if Louisville or Indiana wins their conference tournaments

LAST FOUR IN: Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Tennessee, Kentucky (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi (first team out), Alabama, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Virginia, Maryland, Baylor

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

LOCKS: 38
“SHOULD BE INS”: 0
TOTAL: 38 (minus eight for projected auto bid winners = 30)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 7

BID STEALERS STILL ALIVE:

• ACC: Maryland
• Atlantic 10: Massachusetts
• Conference USA: Southern Miss
• SEC: Vanderbilt

THIS UPDATE:  Charlotte is out after losing in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. Iowa is now a long shot after losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

There are currently 19 teams fighting for 5 spots. If you believe (as I do) that Baylor, Louisiana Tech and Akron are long shots at best (very small chance, if any to make the field) you can bring the numbers down to 16 teams fighting for 5 spots.

———————————————————————-

ACC

LOCKS:

• Virginia (21-11, 11-7; RPI: 67): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also have six impressive wins. One of those wins is against Duke, who might be the nation’s best team now that Ryan Kelly is back.  On Friday, a loss in the ACC quarterfinals to N. C. State might have left Virginia one win short of what they needed to get into the field.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Maryland (22-11, 8-10; RPI: 85): A second upset of Duke this season keeps Maryland’s faint at-large hopes alive. The Terps now can say they are the only team with a win over Ryan Kelly this year, but that may not be enough. This team’s fourth best RPI win is against Stony Brook.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Atlantic 10

LOCKS:

• Temple (23-9, 11-5; RPI: 37): Friday night’s loss to Massachusetts ended the Owls’ seven game winning streak, but in the end I think the Owls have done enough to snare an at-large bid.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 70%
• La Salle (21-8, 11-5; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. On Friday, a second loss to Butler in a week pushed the Explorers closer to the at-large cut-line.  AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%
• Massachusetts (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 57): The Minutemen upset Temple in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals Friday to pick up an eighth victory against the RPI top 100. This team has a shot to get in, but must make it to the Atlantic 10 finals. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

BIG EAST

LOCKS:

BIG 12

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

• New in This Update:
  • I re-evaluated the entire bracket tonight. I had Colorado too low and have moved the Buffaloes up. I admit to overreacting to their loss to Oregon State over the weekend, an exercise I generally avoid (and reference avoiding frequently). Remember, as Selection Committee chairman Mike Bobinski said during his teleconference on Wednesday morning, bracketologists evaluate the bracket every night while the committee only makes one bracket, based on one evaluation of the entire season. That’s why I always say it is important to not overreact to wins and losses. If you would like to read the entire chat, here is the transcript.
  • The biggest story from Wednesday is that Norfolk State (16-0) and North Carolina Central (15-1) in the MEAC both lost in their first conference tournament games. That’s right, the top two seeds are gone. Savannah State is now projected to make the field based on being the highest remaining seed int he MEAC Tournament.
  • San Diego State’s win over Boise State means the Broncos will have a long wait until the field is announced on Selection Sunday.
  • If Louisville gets a #1 seed and plays in Lexington (which it would), the First Four will work out a lot better than it does in my bracket below. I’ve moved one match-up to the #11 line so that teams in the First Four will play close to Dayton if they win their opening round games, but one set of #16 seeds is being sent to Salt Lake City, because it is the only Thursday/Saturday site at which the No. 1 seeds are projected to play.
  • NOTE: Tonight’s bracket does not include a S-curve ranking, but that will return in the next update.
    

LAST FOUR IN: Tennessee, Kentucky, La Salle, Saint Mary’s (last team in)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia (first team out), Mississippi, Alabama, Baylor
NEXT FOUR OUT: Southern Miss, Iowa, Maryland, Xavier

NOTE: Projected conference champions (or auto bid winners) are in capital letters.

(full bracket after the jump)

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On some of the days when Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) isn’t providing us with his updated Bubble Watch or his weekly Bracketology, he’ll give us an interesting comparison of some teams that he finds difficult to distinguish.

Which of the following two teams most deserve a bid?

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Monday wasn’t huge on eliminations from the Circle of March, but another 11 teams fell off after losing last night. Five other teams secured automatic bids, making a total of 10 teams (haloed) now safe for about another week. Through the last seven days of action, 150 teams have fallen out of contention for the national title — meaning that 197 are still alive. Three more league title games get under way tonight, with the Horizon League, Summit League and Northeast Conference all crowning their champions.

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.11.13)

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What a weekend, filled with buzzer-beaters, five NCAA Tournament bids, and a bunch more eliminations — 20, to be exact. Heading into the second week of Championship Fortnight, we now have a grand total of 208 teams still alive for this year’s national championship. Five automatic bids are on the line this evening, with the CAA, MAAC, SoCon, Sun Belt and WCC all staging their championship games tonight. Here’s the current Circle of March:

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.10.13)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are  34 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only four at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 10 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have one team in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If that team ultimately gets in, there are eight total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 34
“SHOULD BE INS”: 1
TOTAL: 35 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 29)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 8

• Odds Improving: Memphis (now a lock), Wichita State (lock), Creighton (auto bid), Belmont (auto bid), Tennessee, Kentucky, Baylor
• Odds Decreasing: Louisiana Tech, Maryland, Minnesota, Oklahoma

In the upcoming days, I can start doing a better job at pinpointing exactly how many auto bids will be taken by teams I currently have in lock status.

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF MARCH 10, 2013

ACC: Four Locks, Two Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia (21-10, 11-7; RPI: 64): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also have six impressive wins. One of those wins is against Duke, who might be the nation’s best team now that Ryan Kelly is back. A win over Sunday against Maryland left the Cavs in position to play their way into the field in the ACC Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%  Maryland (20-11, 8-10; RPI: 84): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, NC State) and absolutely nothing behind them. After a loss to Virginia on Sunday, I think the Terps’ at-large hopes are gone without a big run to the ACC Tournament final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Temple (23-8, 11-5; RPI: 44): A win on Sunday over VCU was very big for the Owls’ at-large hopes. This is team that has now won seven straight games and defeated Syracuse outside of conference. The Owls are in good shape right now. Temple will play the winner of Massachusetts and George Washington in round two of the Atlantic 10 tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 60%  La Salle (21-8, 11-5; RPI: 40): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. On Saturday, the Explorers lost their season finale to Butler. Unfortunately for La Salle, they might see Butler again really soon. The Bulldogs play Dayton in round one with the winner set to take on La Salle. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Massachusetts (19-10, 9-7; RPI: 57): The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. Thursday night’s loss to Butler may have sealed this team’s fate though. Massachusetts has some decent wins (as I noted) but nothing that really catches attention. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Charlotte (20-10, 8-8; RPI: 70): Wins over La Salle and Butler keep the 49ers here, but they have to make the Atlantic 10 final to have any real bubble case.. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (20-10, 11-7; RPI: 33): Welcome to March. Just when a team appears to be in good shape, they screw it up. That’s the case for the Sooners who somehow lost to TCU on Saturday. Now, a first round Big 12 tournament game against Iowa State may decide the Sooners’ fate. This team went from a high percentage last week to one of the last teams in with their bad loss. AT-LARGE ODDS: 55%  Iowa State (21-10, 11-7; RPI: 46): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off either of their upset bids against Kansas. A win against West Virginia in the season finale kept their at-large hopes alive, with a huge Big 12 tournament quarterfinal against Oklahoma coming up. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (18-13, 9-9; RPI: 61): Saturday was a one-game season for Baylor and the Bears destroyed Kansas to pick up a signature win to highlight their profile. Baylor also has a victory against Oklahoma State. A first round Big 12 tournament game against Oklahoma State will be huge for this team’s at-large hopes. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45%

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is RTC’s new resident bracketologist. According to Bracket Matrix, he ranks as one of the top several bracketologists among those who have produced brackets for more than three years, including two seasons with perfect bracket projections. He updates the field daily on his site, Bracketology Expert, and will be producing a weekly bracket update here at RTC on Fridays. RTC Bubble Watch will publish on Sunday nights and Thursday afternoons for the rest of the season.

Bracket Math: Below there are 33 locks along the right column. Basically, that number means that if none of my “locks” clinches an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament, there are only four at-large spots available. In most years, an average of around six “locks” win automatic bids, meaning there are 10 unclinched spots for the NCAA Tournament. I also have five teams in the “should be in” category, meaning I project their odds of getting an at-large bid at 70% or higher. If those teams ultimately get in, there are five total spots available for the teams you see below in my bubble watch. Remember that bid stealers will potentially shrink that number.

LOCKS: 33
“SHOULD BE INS”: 5
TOTAL: 38 (minus six for projected auto bid winners = 32)
PROJECTED AT-LARGE SPOTS AVAILABLE: 5

• Odds Improving: North Carolina (now a lock), Illinois (lock), Memphis
• Odds Decreasing: Baylor, Louisiana Tech

UPDATED THROUGH ALL GAMES OF MARCH 7, 2013

ACC: Four Locks, Two Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Virginia (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 64): The Cavaliers have been a strange bubble case all season. They have some of the worst losses a bubble team can have, but they also had six impressive wins.  One of those wins is against Duke. Virginia’s lost to Florida State on Thursday night once again showed how up and down this team can be. The finale against Maryland is now a must win and a few wins in the ACC Tournament are needed as well. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Maryland (20-10, 8-9; RPI: 84): Maryland has two great wins (Duke, N. C. State) and absolutely nothing behind them. I have a hard team seeing this team getting an at-large bid without a win at Virginia on Saturday and a deep run in the ACC Tournament. AT-LARGE ODDS: 45%

Atlantic 10: Three Locks, Four Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

La Salle (21-7, 11-4; RPI: 38): La Salle has five wins over the RPI top 100 including victories against Butler and VCU, two of the Atlantic 10’s best teams. The Explorers only have one bad loss, which came in mid-November against Central Connecticut State. The season finale against Butler is gigantic for their at-large hopes. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50%Temple (22-8, 10-5; RPI: 41): The Owls are the kind of team that makes a bracketologist’s job very difficult. A win over Syracuse looks fantastic, but losses to Canisius, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, and Xavier cannot be ignored. Six straight wins, including a comeback victory against Detroit, has the Owls on the good side of the bubble right now. The season finale against VCU on Saturday could make or break the Owls’ season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Massachusetts (18-10, 8-7; RPI: 54): Massachusetts lost three straight games before back to back wins against Xavier and Dayton. The Minutemen only have one win against the RPI top 50, but seven against the RPI top 100. Thursday night’s loss to Butler may have sealed this team’s fate though. Massachusetts has some decent wins (as I noted) but nothing that really catches attention. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40% Charlotte (18-10, 6-8; RPI: 70): Six losses in sevens games a few weeks ago pushed the 49ers to the brink of at-large elimination. Wins over La Salle and Butler keep them here, but they have to win their season finale versus Saint Joseph’s and make the Atlantic Ten final. AT-LARGE ODDS: 35%

Big 12: Three Locks, Three Bubble Teams

LOCKS:

Oklahoma (20-9, 11-6; RPI: 25): The Sooners have great wins against Oklahoma and Kansas to go along with six other top 100 victories. If Oklahoma can take of business against TCU in their season finale, they appear to be in great shape. It is hard to see this team missing the tournament at this juncture. AT-LARGE ODDS: 75%Iowa State (20-10, 10-7; RPI: 51): It’s really too bad that the Cyclones could not finish off what would have been a huge upset over Kansas last Tuesday. At least Iowa State did rebound by winning against Oklahoma State on Wednesday inight. There is still work to be done. A must win game at West Virginia ends the season. AT-LARGE ODDS: 50% Baylor (17-13, 8-9; RPI: 61): After a buzzer beating loss to Kansas State on Saturday, Baylor is left with only win against a sure NCAA Tournament team (Oklahoma State) and eight losses against the RPI top 30. This looks like a season of lost opportunities. The good news is a game against Kansas remains on the schedule. Beating the Jayawks on March 9 might be a must win for the Bears to get into the field as an at-large. AT-LARGE ODDS: 40%

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