Boston College has had a resoundingly disappointing season, to say the least. Coming into the year with elevated expectations based on their youth and potent inside-out combination of Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson, the Eagles have not even held a .500 record yet. Their defense is porous, ranking an astonishingly bad 298th in the nation out of 351 Division I basketball teams. They also haven’t shot the ball well from deep, yet have persisted in making it a staple of their offense. A top-40 schedule with games against UConn, Providence, UMass, USC, Maryland, Toledo and VCU have all resulted in losses. At some point this team needs to win a few marquee games in order to thrive in a top-heavy ACC, and although they won’t lack for those opportunities, it seems like the rest of the season will be spent in hopes of securing a non-NCAA postseason bid and building for the future.

Olivier Hanlan is shouldering a large burden this season. (Boston Globe)

Boston College fans had good reason to believe in this squad coming into this season, as the Eagles returned all of their major players including the ACC ROY Hanlan, versatile big man Anderson, and guard Joe Rahon. The team finished the 2012-13 season relatively strong, winning four out of its last five games with an extremely young team that lacked depth and ACC experience. Much was made out of the momentous leap expected from Hanlan, the seemingly unstoppable Canadian guard who dropped an ACC freshman record 41 points in the first round of last year’s ACC Tournament.

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Let’s have some fun with a traditional office activity going into the Christmas Holiday. We’ll pretend each of this season’s ACC teams are in the drawing hat, and give our best advice to anyone picking out gifts for each, based on current needs. So here goes the list for each ACC team in alphabetical order.

• Boston College (4-8) – Probably the easiest team to shop for because they need so much. In fact anything defensively would be much appreciated. There isn’t one thing that the Eagles do well on the defensive end of the court, as proven by their current rank of #340 out of 351 teams in raw defensive efficiency. So they won’t be picky – they could use somebody to force turnovers, someone to grab a defensive rebound, or anyone who can make somebody on the other team miss a shot more than just occasionally.
• Clemson (8-3) – The Tigers are all set on the defensive end but could use some help on offense. While better shooters are the obvious gift, a more meaningful option may be to find a way to get Clemson to the free throw line more often. They are wasting their 77 percent foul shooting average by ranking only #285 in the nation in free throw rate. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Notre Dame: Mike Brey’s weekend was probably worse than yours. First, his team coughed up an eight-point lead with less than a minute left to Ohio State that was so bad that it inspired CBSSports.com‘s Matt Norlander to track down the worst collapses of the millennium. That win would have brought Notre Dame back into the national conversation and made up for a couple of unfortunate non-conference losses. Instead as a kicker, Jerian Grant released a statement over the weekend that he will not be enrolled at Notre Dame for the spring semester, citing a “poor decision” related to academics. As of now Grant is planning to come back to South Bend next season for a final year of eligibility. Very tough basketball weekend in South Bend.
2. Inside Carolina: If you’re looking for the details on PJ Hairston‘s case, Greg Barnes has you covered. Apparently what led to the final decision was not as much the impermissible benefits issue, but more the inconsistencies with Hairston’s accounts to the university and the NCAA. Also interesting (albeit perhaps not new) is that head coach Roy Williams did not initially want to suspend Hairston last summer, which put him at odds with North Carolina’s relatively new athletic director Bubba Cunningham.
3. Run the Floor: Duke‘s second half against UCLA on Thursday night was probably its best 20 minutes of basketball this season. The Blue Devils were very good on defense (largely because the Bruins’ threes stopped falling), but their ball movement and three-point shooting were outstanding. Run the Floor breaks down all of the Duke threes in the game, exposing the porous UCLA defense. This is the Duke team many expected coming into the season. Zone defense should be ineffective against a team that usually has four shooters on the floor, two of whom are 6’8″ and highly skilled offensive weapons.
4. Tomahawk Nation: Florida State got a strong non-conference win on Saturday, dominating Massachusetts on the defensive end. The Seminoles ended up holding the Minutemen to an absurd 0.75 points per possession. The highlight of Michael Rogner’s post here is his video capturing all 12 of Florida State’s blocks. Regardless of their current record, in case those two close games against Florida and Michigan didn’t convince you, these Seminoles are for real. Going to Tallahassee is going to be quite the test this season. Notre Dame and Syracuse will get their first taste of the Donald L. Tucker Center, and they should be prepared for what awaits them there.
5. College Basketball Talk: And we’re back to teams that had bad weekends. Boston College lost at Auburn. On the surface that’s a road loss to a power conference team, but Auburn is not good (actually, they’re awful). And still, the Eagles lost by 10 points. Now it’s time to stop talking about how Steve Donahue can turn his team around and try to figure out instead where he lost them. Is it personnel? Effort? Both? The postseason isn’t happening this year, but Donahue now faces the uphill battle of motivating three different groups: his team, his fans, and his potential recruits.

Battle For Iowa Lived Up To Its Billing

For my money, the best game in recent days was Iowa State’s thrilling win over Iowa on Friday night at Hilton Coliseum. This game was the true essence of what college basketball is all about. It was a heated in-state rivalry between two quality teams in a crazy atmosphere, smack dab in the middle of a basketball-crazed state. It is simple: This was a fun game, period. Although Fred Hoiberg’s Cyclones came away victorious, you may be somewhat surprised to find out that my biggest impression taken from this game was just how good Iowa is. I actually thought the Hawkeyes were the better team for most of this contest. Don’t get me wrong, Iowa State played really well. After all, it beat a team I thought was very impressive so that should tell you something about the Cyclones as well. I thought Iowa had a terrific game plan and evidence of top-notch coaching and scouting was present throughout the game.

Devyn Marble and his mates were outstanding. But Iowa State was just a little bit better. (AP)

One specific example of great scouting came late in the first half when Roy Devyn Marble got in the middle of a dribble hand-off by Georges Niang and broke it up, leading to two Iowa points on the other end. Marble read the play perfectly and it paid off for his team. Fran McCaffery’s squad excelled in transition and got almost anything it wanted offensively on the low block with Aaron White leading the charge. Iowa ran some beautiful half-court sets that resulted in plenty of clean looks, especially for White and Marble. The Hawkeyes dominated the glass (but did not take full advantage of it) and answered the bell nearly every time Iowa State put together a charge, except for the final minute where it wound up costing them the game. Iowa simply didn’t make the plays it needed to win late, highlighted by Mike Gesell’s two missed free throws. McCaffery and his team can learn a lot from this game but in the end it is on the players to step up and lead down the stretch. Whether that’s Marble (most likely), White, Gesell, or someone else, Iowa needs someone to be “the man” in order to take the next step and contend at the very highest level in the Big Ten.

Michigan Back On Track?

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1. Testudo Times: Here’s a great film review of Roddy Peters in his recent game against Boston College. The in-depth look certainly supports my hypothesis that Peters has loads of potential on the offensive end. The play I found most interesting was the one where he picked apart the Eagles’ defense. It’s also rather alarming how easily the Eagles were picked apart by a freshman point guard, but that’s a post for another time. While he’s still not a shooter, Peters’ ability to get in the lane and find the open man is one that’s tough to teach. When he and Jake Layman develop more chemistry over time, they will be nearly impossible to stop.
2. Syracuse Post-Standard: One big advantage Syracuse has over most opponents is on its front line, but you wouldn’t necessarily notice it from the stat sheet. Jim Boeheim wants to change that perception, though, by forcing the ball inside more. And he’s right if you look at Rakeem Christmas and DaJuan Coleman‘s numbers. The duo are hitting 72 and 68 percent of their field goals, respectively. Both are mostly scoring in the paint (through dunks and layups), but even if those numbers drop with increased possessions, that’s still a great pair of offensive options for the Orange.
3. Boston Herald: Dennis Clifford received yet another setback in his potential return, which may end up forcing him to redshirt. He was originally scheduled to be back in action by now, but a source told Tom Layman that Steve Donahue is hoping to have Clifford back when conference play resumes the first week of January. Clifford has been dealing with nagging knee injuries since coming to Chestnut Hill, most recently trying to reduce the pain from arthritis in both knees. If he comes back the Eagles will be a much better team, as his shot-blocking will help to shore up the team’s interior defense. But at this point (and with this record), Donahue may be thinking about redshirting Clifford anyway and giving him the whole season to get back to 100 percent.
4. Cardiac Hill: Stephen Gertz asks if Pittsburgh is better off without Steven Adams in the lineup. I’ll go ahead and posit no. Adams was the team’s most efficient rebounder (though Talib Zanna has stepped up significantly in defensive rebounding in his absence), most efficient shooter (albeit from close range), and an elite shot-blocker (an area Pittsburgh could decidedly use improvement). Also based on the success Adams has had in the NBA, I think he’s a much better basketball player this year than he was last season.
5. WTVD: This story is head-scratching, but Will Graves — who was allegedly kicked off the 2011 North Carolina team for drugs — was recently cited for marijuana possession after consenting to let police search the house he rented from Roy Williams to finish his degree. First things first, major props to Williams for following through with Graves (who also worked part time for the Tar Heels as a video coordinator) and helping him finish his degree. But it’s not a good look for Graves.

With seven minutes left in the game and his team down four points, Dez Wells took over the game. He scored 18 of Maryland‘s final 28 points, but that doesn’t do the performance justice. Every possession Maryland looked to run down the clock before he barreled into the lane, drawing six fouls before all was said and done. But Wells’ performance said as much about Boston College as it did about him.

Steve Donahue’s team is struggling defensively, but better than its record. (Boston College Athletics)

Boston College’s season has been bad. If you factor in the high expectations for the Eagles, who brought essentially everyone back from last year’s squad, it has been downright abysmal. Steve Donahue‘s team is 3-7, with one of those wins coming at home in overtime against a bad Sacred Heart team. Offensively, the team is very good. Defensively, it’s a train wreck. As Wells took over the game in Chestnut Hill, Boston College’s defensive lapses piled up. Every possession became a struggle. After the game Donahue cited his team’s youth, noting that players started focusing on their man instead of rotating to help — which is paramount against a score-first player like Wells.

But this game was a microcosm of Boston College under Steve Donahue. Statistically, he’s never had a good defensive team, at Cornell or at Boston College. His teams have never cracked the top half of Division I. But he’s never had a team as bad as this one either. Right now the Eagles are ranked 300 out of 351 teams in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy, the lowest of a major conference team by more than 25 spots. Watching Maryland for all but one stretch confirmed the metrics. This team did a poor job on rotations, often losing a man in the corner, or failing to step into Wells’ driving lane once he got past the initial defender.

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Maryland stopped its two-game skid with a road win to open conference play, and meanwhile the Eagles slipped to 3-7 in another poor defensive performance.

Roddy Peters will be a great player at Maryland. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America)

1. Ryan Anderson and Joe Rahon are in shape this year, and Anderson kept the game close at the beginning. He was really the only active Boston College player early, cutting and finishing with a couple of two-handed dunks that kept Maryland from running away. However, a big concern was how Anderson disappeared after the first four minutes and throughout the second half. He only took two shots in the second period (making both; he also had two assists), which just won’t cut it in most games. Anderson needs to work on staying aggressive. Most of the game Steve Donahue played him at the four, where he’s really tough to guard because of his perimeter shooting. Rahon is listed at the same weight, but it’s clear he worked on his conditioning this summer. He finished last season on a high note, and his stats this season are a cut above. That said, I’m pretty sure Steve Donahue would happily take Rahon’s offensive stats from last season in exchange for him becoming an elite defender. Read the rest of this entry »

With approximately 30 percent of the regular season already played, it’s a good time to check out how ACC teams are currently rated by some of the most highly regarded computer rating systems. It’s also a good time to compare that with each team’s preseason expectations, where we find that there are definitely some surprises.

The chart below lists the 15 ACC schools according to their current computer rankings. This ranking is based on an average of three of the most respected basketball computer gurus – Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin, and Kenneth Massey. Keep in mind that these ratings are updated daily and this table represents data from Monday, December 9. The first column is the average national ranking for ACC teams in these computer systems. The next two columns compare the conference ranking for each team using the computers versus the official ACC Media Preseason Poll.

With the unpredictability of college basketball it’s not surprising that several teams are quite a bit above or below expectations so far this year. The first team on the list has the third biggest variance between current computer ranking and ACC Preseason Media ranking (five spots). The computers love Pittsburgh this year. Pomeroy has the Panthers fourth in the nation despite a less than challenging schedule. Basically it means that Pitt has been beating bad teams convincingly. It is still reasonable to project Jamie Dixon’s team higher now than at least two of the teams that were ranked ahead of them in the preseason poll — namely Virginia and Notre Dame. It’s worth noting that the Panthers were also something of a computer darling last season. At a similar point in the 2012-13 schedule, Pitt was seventh in Pomeroy’s ratings and eventually ended the season at #11, despite entering the NCAA Tournament as a #8 seed and losing to Wichita State badly in its opening round game.

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1. The Dagger: Is it good to have the two most disappointing teams in college basketball? I mean, at least there were expectations for those teams coming into the season, right? Well that’s where Jeff Eisenberg has Boston College and Maryland, respectively. Here are some troubling stats: “In all but two of Boston College’s nine games this season, its opponent has scored 78 or more points and averaged more than 1.1 points per possession.” Yikes. Speaking of interestingly morbid statistics, Maryland owns a ridiculous 18 more turnovers than assists so far this season. That’s two more turnovers than assists per game, which gives some more context to the team’s poor offense so far.
2. Fox Sports Carolinas: Lauren Brownlow’s weekly ACC roundup is full of more good (depressing) statistics to tell your friends. Apparently Virginia turned it over 14 times each in its two losses last week. Right now, miscues are the big issue in Charlottesville, as the Cavaliers currently rank #293 out of 351 teams in turnover percentage. Olivier Hanlan didn’t escape unscathed either, as Brownlow pointed out that he recently played his worst two games of the season. He didn’t quite pass the more shots than points barrier, but he came pretty close (his offensive ratings were 91.0 and 65.0 in the two losses). Long story short, there’s no dearth of mediocrity in the ACC so far this season.
3. Testudo Times: Yes! GIF-filled ACC power rankings. In terms of ordering, I think Brendan Darr and I agree fairly well (other than he appears to value bad losses over close wins), but I’d probably rank Notre Dame a couple of spots lower. The other thing in seeing these rankings (with team records) indirectly points out is that Boston College fans would trade places with Wake Forest fans in a second. The odds of that being the case going into the season were astronomical, but the optimistic tone following Boston College’s strong showing at the ACC Tournament last season is now long gone. Meanwhile Jeff Bzdelik is fielding a team that just might be good enough for him to keep his job.
4. ESPN: For all those who live and die by the “Roy Williams doesn’t adapt his system to his personnel” narrative, this season looks like one to ignore. It’s not that he’s stopped running or eschewed the secondary break; it’s just that this year’s team is making people pay on defense, where it’s only allowing opponents to shoot a little over 37 percent from the floor. That’s a full five percent below the team’s percentage from last season. Despite only having one reliable perimeter shooter, Williams is fielding a more than capable offense and an outstanding defense as far as Ken Pomeroy’s data goes.
5. Duke Basketball Report: There have been a lot of overtimes this year, already matching last year’s eight overtime games all season. Strangely enough Virginia Tech and Miami are particularly fond of giving fans free basketball, as they’ve each finished tops (or tied) in overtime sessions in four of their nine years in the ACC (although they tied each other for two years). The reason for this phenomenon? Your guess is as good as mine, but I would guess it has more to do with bad teams playing slightly better than average than playing in multiple trap games (from the other side of the coin).

Author’s note: As technical difficulties prevented yesterday’s M5, please accept 10 blurbs as repayment.

1. Boston Globe and BC Interruption: Both of these stories were written following Boston College‘s loss to USC. The former stressed Steve Donahue’s point of view: “The bottom line is we have a group of kids who are not playing with confidence.” The latter was from a fan, calling for Donahue’s job. Strangely enough the two aren’t that far off from each other. This was Donahue’s year to show he could make the leap, and he scheduled accordingly. Unfortunately his team didn’t play like the group that almost played spoiler in the ACC Tournament last season. They played like the athletically overmatched group that they are on paper. The team’s performance last March shows its potential (as do countless previews coming into this season), but Brian Favat is right about the season effectively being over barring a miraculous conference run. What exactly has been the problem?
2. BC Interruption: Defense! The fine bloggers over at BC Interruption are breaking down the Eagles and their technical difficulties so far this season, starting with transition defense. Luckily, Boston College doesn’t turn the ball over that often, but the second GIF example certainly points to a team running at half-speed. That’s what Steve Donahue has to fix before the end of the season to keep fans in his corner. Everyone knows he won’t beat anyone as an elite recruiter (although he is a good evaluator of talent), but he’s got to show that his X’s and O’s can create a competitive team if he wants to stick around Chestnut Hill a lot longer. The one thing people forget about the Eagles this season is that they’re still pretty young — not nearly as young as the last two seasons, but well below average nevertheless. That’s the main reason I’d probably lean towards giving Donahue another season after this one.
3. Streaking the Lawn: Speaking of ACC teams with rough starts, Virginia appears to have taken a step backwards since last season. The big reason for that is the Cavaliers’ sudden propensity to turn the ball over. Weirdly enough, this is a spot Jontel Evans isn’t missed (at least on paper), but all of Virginia’s players are turning it over at a higher rate than last season. That combined with stop-and-go offense certainly points to point guard issues (something many forecasted as the team’s Achilles heel). Whatever the underlying reason, Tony Bennett needs to get more offensively from Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell.
4. Baltimore Sun: Filling out our trio of below mediocrity is Maryland. Mark Turgeon held true on his promise to start Varun Ram against George Washington, although the redshirt junior played fewer minutes than he had in the blowout loss to Ohio State. But Ram isn’t the answer, and I expect Turgeon knows this. Seth Allen isn’t the answer either, which is why Turgeon has to find another way to curb the team’s rampant turnovers. As Dez Wells and Allen mature, I expect both to get better at valuing the basketball, but expecting any changes overnight is naive.
5. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: According to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics, Pittsburgh has the 12th-ranked defense in the country, but Jamie Dixon still isn’t happy with it. Specifically, his team’s rebounding against Loyola Marymount appeared to get under his skin, despite winning the game by 17 points. This certainly sounds like a coach trying to keep his team focused heading into conference play. If you haven’t watched the Panthers play already, Lamar Patterson is worth the price of admission. He’s the quiet leader (who admittedly hasn’t played much real competition) for ACC Player of the Year at this point.
6. Syracuse Post-Standard: Dajuan Coleman came to Syracuse loaded with potential but has still yet to earn a significant spot in the team’s rotation. But before you’re too quick to write him off as a bust, remember that it took three and a half years for Brian Zoubek to find his role on Duke’s 2010 national championship team. Like Zoubek, Coleman is an elite offensive rebounder but that’s where the comparisons should end. Big men generally take longer to adjust to the college game, and Jim Boeheim’s system is probably nothing like what Coleman saw in high school. His breakout season might not be this year, but expect progressively more good games as the season unfolds for the sophomore.
7. South Bend Tribune: Jerian Grant is really blossoming this season. He’s on par with North Carolina’s Marcus Paige right now as far as best guards in the league as conference play trickles to a start. Grant is shouldering a similar load — strictly speaking about possessions here — but he’s much more efficient. The big difference between this year and the last couple has been Grant’s consistency. His two-point field goal percentage is up over 15 points and his three-point field goal percentage is up nearly 10 points. That’s outrageous. Also notable is that Notre Dame is 1-2 this season when Grant scores fewer than 19 points.
8. Greensboro News-Record: Nate Britt is finally starting to look a like he’s ready to play significant minutes this season, which is very good news for a North Carolina team that’s not very deep at the two. Playing Britt allows JP Tokoto to move to his more natural small forward position. Marcus Paige will continue to be the star of this team unless PJ Hairston eventually comes back into the fold, but meaningful minutes for Britt can only help Roy Williams’ squad.
9. Winston-Salem Journal: Devin Thomas is a big part of why Wake Forest is so much improved over last year. He’s arguably the best rebounder in the league, which evidences his high-level motor. His intensity has gotten him in trouble at times (see: Wake Forest’s game against Kansas), but it also gives him a bit of an edge. Also, what sort of odds would you have gotten at the beginning of the season on Wake Forest at 8-2 and Boston College at 3-6 at this point in the season?
10. Fayetteville Observer: While its offense has taken a few steps back towards earth, Duke’s defense is finally coming around. A lot of the change is from an effort and focus standpoint. Mike Krzyzewski even slapped the floor a couple of times against Michigan to help fire up his team. What remains to be seen is if and how Duke can put it all together. If Marshall Plumlee can give Coach K productive minutes like he did against the Wolverines, Duke may retake its lofty ranking yet. If not, the team will be highly dependent on the match-ups before them.