Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Expiration dates on coaching tenures vary based on a variety of different factors. Signs of positive momentum and progressive change no doubt correlate positively long coaching tenures, but there are other elements involved: Program expectations, buyout fees, revenue accumulation, recruiting success, and so on. The checklist differs at each program, which makes nailing down a hard-and-fast list of general standards practically impossible. Despite the vague criteria that define the profession, and the fundamental truth that administrators – not fans, players or boosters – make the final call on coaches’ job statuses, we enter every college basketball season with a pretty good idea of where each coach stands in his current state of employment. Perhaps the most obvious trend, the one most easily spotted across a wide sample of coaches, is the fateful decline. Win totals plummet, fan support wanes, administrators stay mum while perusing the market for a replacement – then, the rumors, the denial, the wait and, last but not least, the long-expected press release signaling the end of a coach’s time at the program. Pretty boilerplate stuff. The path to the dreaded fall is fairly predictable. What follows are six coaches (one from each of the power conferences) feeling the heat this season. All of them may or may not last the year, but there’s a decent chance at least one of these guys will get the axe by next April. To quantify this hot seat breakdown, I’ve added a meter that gauges a coaches’ “heat level” on a 1-through-5 scale. I wish these coaches well, but their inclusion here is not a positive way to begin the season.

Herb Sendek (Arizona State)
Heat Meter: 4

Unless Sendek leads a major renaissance in Tempe this season, he could find himself out of a job (photo credit: Getty Images).

In most years, finishing with a 6-12 record in the Pac-12 is not a terrible result. Winning in league play is difficult, and winning in one of the nation’s better high-major conferences is even more difficult. Notching six wins won’t get you into NCAA Tournament (or even NIT) consideration, but it’s hardly a death sentence, either. The problem with this line of thinking is that last season’s Pac-12 was not the usual Pac-12. It was awful – so bad that regular season champion Washington didn’t qualify for an at-large bid. Considering the league’s top-to-bottom futility last season, managing just six wins is proof enough to raise serious questions about the direction of Arizona State’s program. Now Sendek finds himself at a crossroads: after last year’s disappointment, two of his best assistants left the program, including one, Lamont Smith, who joined Lorenzo Romar’s Staff at Washington. When you’re losing your top assistants to league competitors, job security develops a tenuous, even artificial, feel. Sendek can save his position if the Sun Devils show noticeable signs of improvement, and with highly-touted recruit Jahii Carson eligible this season, that’s a reasonable expectation to have. Another six-win league total – and this year, six Pac-12 wins won’t be as easy to come by – is a doomsday scenario.

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1. As we mentioned yesterday, Kentucky coach John Calipari isn’t one to normally give his team undue praise, and he didn’t change course Thursday at SEC Media Day. “Whoever did that needs to be drug-tested,” Calipari said in response to those who consider his Wildcats the team to beat. “We’re not very good right now. I think we’ll be a good team eventually, hopefully, but right now we’re average.” Calipari won’t ever fall victim to the hype, but he should get used to this line of questioning in the future. When his freshman-dominated team cut down the nets in April, his star-studded squads ceased being the primary example of why the one-and-done strategy isn’t a viable championship method. He’s showing no signs of slowing down in the recruiting arena, meaning that his squads will be perceived as one of the heavy favorites almost every year in the foreseeable future.
2. Frank Martin believes that Ole Miss is in for a big season. We were hoping for an outrageous quote out of the new South Carolina coach on Media Day, but some respectful optimism will have to do. When asked about Martin’s comments, Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy responded, “The pieces are in place for us to have a good team. I think when you return your top nine, four starters, and you have the most experienced top line in the SEC, it’s not a bad place to start.” Unfortunately, that experience he’s referencing has only done enough to become an NIT fixture. Each of Kennedy’s teams in Oxford has finished with between seven and nine wins in conference play, and because of another weak non-conference schedule, that number will need to increase for the Rebels to have a chance to go dancing.
3. Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy wants you to forget about last year. “I’ve learned a lot about myself and [I’m] really excited about the opportunity to be at Texas A&M and represent a great school and a great league,” the coach told assembled media in Hoover, Alabama, “It’s going to be a lot more fun, I promise you.” The Aggies’ first season after Mark Turgeon bolted for Maryland was disastrous. The projected Tourney team suffered from a rash of injuries and underachievement. The offseason wasn’t much better, with Khris Middleton bolting for the NBA and several contributors graduating or transferring. The cupboard isn’t completely bare, however, as the Turners (Ray and Elston, mistakenly identified in the link as twins) will be expected to provide leadership in addition to on-court production. Says Kennedy: “For us to be good, they have to have great years – not just average years, they’ve got to have great years”.
4. Arkansas received some disappointing news last night when the NCAA denied a transfer waiver for forward Alandise Harris. The Little Rock native was hoping to receive immediate eligibility after leaving Houston for family reasons. Harris played two years for the Cougars and averaged 13.3 points and 6.4 boards last season. This development leaves second-year coach Mike Anderson with a depth problem in the frontcourt. Marshawn Powell is the unit’s primary scoring threat, but he’s coming off a season lost to injury. Hunter Mickleson is a defensive specialist hoping that his offensive game will improve. Beyond that exists only unproven commodities. With his high-energy defensive schemes, Anderson has to be worried about fatigue for his thin frontcourt.
5. In an entirely unsurprising development, Huntington Prep forward Andrew Wiggins announced his intention to reclassify to his original 2013 recruiting class. The 2014 top prospect immediately unseats Jabari Parker and Julius Randle as the top available talent atop both ESPN’s and Rivals’ rankings. The battle to land Wiggins’ signature on a letter of intent will be fierce, and John Calipari will surely be involved. With top 10 commitments from Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, and James Young (not to mention five-star Marcus Lee) already signed on, landing the swingman would give the Kentucky coach the most highly touted recruiting class in recent memory.

It’s hot out there, and to many of us, college basketball is the last thing on our minds. But here at the SEC Microsite, we’re going to be rolling out mid-summer resets of each of the (now) 14 basketball programs in our league. We’re calling it Transition Basketball, and you can expect we’ll cover three or four teams a week until we’re done. By that time, we’ll actually start to be turning the slight corner into the fall, and from there it’s a smooth slope down to Midnight Madness in mid-October. Today’s update: Mississippi.

State of the Program

Coach Andy Kennedy has led Ole Miss to the NIT in five of his first six seasons as head coach, but has yet to reach the NCAA Tournament while in Oxford. Under Kennedy, the Rebs have never done better than 9-7 in conference play, and 2011-12 was more of the same. There were several low points including a 30-point loss to Marquette and a 26-point home loss to Vanderbilt. After an 8-8 conference record saddled with mid- to late-season losses of two of its most talented players — the dismissal of guard Dundrecous Nelson for marijuana charges and the suspension (and eventual departure) of guard Jelan Kendrick for being, well, his true self — Ole Miss might be ready for a fresh start. But could this be the year that the Rebs take the next step and get into the Big Dance?

Murphy Holloway will be key in the middle for the Rebels this season. (AP Photo/B. Newman)

There is certainly enough talent in Oxford for Ole Miss to get over the hump. Kennedy returns three double figure scorers in all. Guard Jarvis Summers and wing Nick Williams bring back a lot of experience in the backcourt while seniors Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner return to form one of the best front lines in the conference. Kennedy welcomes six newcomers to the fold next season, but Holloway knows the secret to how the Rebels will advance. “I think we have a lot of pieces that can help us soon, but I think it’ll be more of our returning players that already get it,” Holloway said. “We kinda got it at the end of the season last year and what you have to do to win. There’s no way around it, this is what you got to do.”

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Eric Moyer is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun Conference and Southern Conference and a contributor to the RTC SEC Microsite. You can find him on Twitter @EricDMoyer.

Tournament Preview

Tournament Tidbits

• Kentucky is the top seed in the modified SEC Tournament. After 20 years of seeding based on divisional finishes, the 12 teams were seeded #1 through #12. This change allowed for four former “Eastern Division” schools (Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida) to claim the first-round byes. In previous years, the Commodores and Gators would have had to play first round games and the 9-7 Alabama and 8-8 Mississippi State squads would have had byes.
• Anthony Davis swept the SEC year-end awards, claiming Freshman of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Player of the Year. There exists some history of SEC Players of the Year leading his team to a tournament title and claiming Tournament MVP honors in the process. In 25 years of the Coaches SEC Player of the Year, five have doubled up with Tournament MVP honors. Four of those players came from Kentucky (Ron Mercer, 1997; Tayshaun Prince, 2001; Keith Bogans, 2003; John Wall, 2010). Only one Defensive Player of the Year, Mississippi State’s Jarvis Varnadoin 2009, went on to earn Tournament MVP honors (the award began in 2004). No SEC Freshman of the Year has won Tournament MVP honors in the same season (that award began in 2001).
  

  Anthony Davis Swept The SEC's Three Major Postseason Awards. Will The Dynamic Davis Add A Tournament MVP To His Growing List Of Accolades? (AP)

• The Wildcats will go for its fourth “three-peat.” Kentucky won SEC Tournament titles from 1944-50, 1992-95 and from 1997-99. The only other programs to win three straight SEC titles are Alabama (1989-91) and Florida (2005-07).
• Kentucky enters the SEC Tournament off a perfect 16-0 record in league games. In nine previous seasons, the Wildcats also posted perfect conference records leading up the conference tournament. Kentucky has gone on to win seven of those tournament titles, losing to Vanderbilt in 1951 and Mississippi State in 1996. The loss to the Bulldogs also came in New Orleans

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1. Florida has lost three games in a row, but that doesn’t mean the Gators are lacking in confidence. “I don’t think our confidence is ever going to be a problem,” said Florida junior Erik Murphy, who added 14 points and tied a season high with eight rebounds. “We’ve got a bunch of confident guys on this team. We haven’t been playing too great and hopefully we can start putting it together.” The Gators are playing with effort, despite the results. “Whether you play hard or not, you’ve got to come out with the win,” Florida senior point guard Erving Walker said. “We’re in a one-and-done situation now, so we gotta figure this out.” Florida will have a bye into the second round of the SEC Tournament for the extra benefit of added practice time.
2. The Florida players may not have come through against Kentucky, but the Gators’ fans came ready. Florida fans distributed this chant guide to organize the crowd’s heckling efforts against Kentucky players during Sunday’s game. But do Florida fans really need a guide to remember how to cheer? While it was a was a nice effort, Gator fans were really digging deep on this one. Needles? Wait, Anthony Davis has a unibrow? The heckling fell about as flat as the Gators defense on this Sunday afternoon.
3. Tennessee is officially on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, but the Vols know they just need to focus on winning. “Whatever the numbers are, there’s nothing we can do but play games and win games,” UT coach Cuonzo Martin said on Sunday. “We control our own situation. Whoever we play against, all we can do is everything in our power to win that game.” Just how many games do the Vols need to win? “A win at the SEC tourney makes NCAA possible,” ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi said, “two wins makes it probable.” Tennessee gets the winner of Ole Miss and Auburn on Friday. The Vols have an RPI of 76 currently, and obviously have work to do in order to feel safe on selection Sunday.
4. Some might argue that the Vols already have the look and feel of an NCAA Tournament team. The progress the Vols have made under Martin was obvious when Tennessee kept fighting on Saturday even when Vanderbilt cut the Vols’ second half lead to just two points.  “That’s our growth as a team,” Tennessee point guard Trae Golden said. “Back in the day, at the beginning of the season, we probably would’ve lost the lead and lost the game.” Pundits can compare numbers like the RPI all day long, but sometimes a team has to pass the eye test. And Martin knows he has an NCAA team on his hands. “We’re changing the culture and defining what we expect,” he said.
5. Ole Miss is also in the hunt for an NCAA berth with a solid showing in the SEC Tournament, but the Rebels will need Jelan Kendrick to make an impact. Kendrick didn’t play in the Rebels’ win on Saturday because of a coach’s decision. Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said he would “revisit” the situation before determining whether the troubled freshman will play in the SEC Tournament on Thursday. Saturday marked the third time that Kennedy chose not to play Kendrick even though he was eligible to play.

1. The SEC announced the 2012 Allstate® SEC Basketball Legends. The 12-man class will be honored at the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament March 8-11 at the New Orleans Arena. The 2012 class includes Jack Kubiszyn (Alabama), Nolan Richardson (Arkansas), Chris Morris (Auburn), Mike Miller (Florida),  Willie Anderson (Georgia), Adrian “Odie” Smith (Kentucky), Jack Waters (Ole Miss), Chuck Evans (Mississippi State), Henry Martin (South Carolina), Gene Tormohlen (Tennessee), and Drew Maddux (Vanderbilt). Each SEC Basketball Legend will be recognized at halftime of his institution’s first game at the tournament.
2. While Vanderbilt was throttling Ole Miss, 102-76, on Thursday, much of the drama came outside the lines. In the game, the Rebels received three technical fouls, one because of some fans throwing ice on the floor for a second time. Andy Kennedy and Terrance Henry also received technical fouls by the end of the night. After the game, teammates Reginald Buckner and Jelan Kendrick had to be separated by the coaching staff after an argument. “When you played like we played there’s a lot of frustration to go around,” Kennedy said. “I’m sure some of that got misguided.” Hugh Kellenberger of the Jackson Clarion-Ledger filed this video regarding the altercation.
3. In that win, Jeffery Taylor scored 28 points as he continued his ascension up the Vanderbilt scoring chart. At Taylor’s current average, Vanderbilt would need to make the SEC Tournament championship game, and the NCAA championship game for him to pass Foster.  The Tennessean’s Mike Organ spoke to Taylor and his teammates about his chances of taking down Shan Foster of the school’s all-time leading scorer. “I’ve always been among the top scorers on the team, but we’ve always had good scorers and we’ve always had a balanced team,” Taylor said. “But where I am on the (all-time) scoring list is nothing that I’ve ever really had that great an interest in.” Organ writes that “at Taylor’s current average, Vanderbilt would need to make the SEC Tournament championship game, and the NCAA championship game for him to pass Foster.
4. As Auburn basketball is starting to see a uptick under Tony Barbee, the story of Tigers’ walk-on starting point guard Josh Wallace has picked up steam. Evan Woodbery writes how Wallace, the owner of a 4.45 GPA in high school, can balance his book studies with his playbook studies. “Engineering is a pretty tough major, and I guess to balance that and play a sport is pretty demanding on both ends,” Wallace said with a shrug. “So I guess people want talk about it a lot.”
5. Jack Blankenship, the subject of the “SEC basketball photo of the year” has seen the popularity of the picture grow to the point where ESPN’s Dave Wilsonwrote about Blankenship’s sudden stardom. “I thought it’d be cool to find a way to get a picture of myself and bring it to the games and hold it up,” Blankenship said. “It’s been amazing. I’ve always wanted to be famous.”

1. Head coach Anthony Grant questioned the team mentality of his Alabama squad after a 56-52 loss to Mississippi State on Saturday. “There’s a point in time when winning needs to take a priority over any individual things,” Grant said, “and I don’t think we understand that all the time.” If the Tide’s head man had questions over teamwork on Saturday, then he’s really going to ponder his club’s commitment following a 69-59 loss to Vanderbilt. Alabama trailed by as many as 23 in the second half, were outrebounded by 10, and shot just 33% as a team from the field. Rather than a lack of teamwork, maybe it’s a lack of shooting ability that has done the Crimson Tide in this season. Alabama is last in the SEC in made three-point field goals with under three per game.
2. Forward Reginald Buckner was a huge factor in Mississippi’s first win over rival Mississippi State since January 31, 2009. Buckner pulled down 15 rebounds, blocked three shots, and scored a career-high 19 points. That’s a lot of production from the junior who averages 8.7 rebounds and just 6.8 points per game. “I thought he was tremendous,” Rebels coach Andy Kennedy said. “Obviously the difference in the game.” And not just any game — a much needed win for the up and down Rebels. “It was a statement game,” Buckner said. “We’re back in it. We’re back in the race.” Which race exactly is yet to be determined.
3. Mississippi State point guard Dee Bost is an emotionally driven player who can trash talk with the best of them, but usually backs up his talk with positive play on the court. Bost made plenty of noise before the game, but came up short in the Bulldogs loss on Wednesday night. Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy set out to frustrate Bost by defending him with the length of 6’10” forward Terrance Henry. And it worked. Bost was four of 15 from the field for 15 points, but scored a flurry of eight points in the final 42 seconds of the game after the final outcome was already decided. “We thought the length would bother him, which it did a little bit,” Kennedy said. Bost has been the key to Mississippi State’s five-game winning streak against Ole Miss prior to this loss. In the 69-64 win in Oxford last season, Bost came up huge for the Bulldogs with 25 points, six rebounds, and eight assists.
4. Kentucky forward Terrence Jones credits a new attitude for his recent 13-point, nine-rebound performance against Arkansas. “I’m just not thinking as much,” Jones said. “Just being less conscious about my hand. Worrying about messing up because I wasn’t playing like I was as a freshman. Just thinking too much about every little play.” Jones refuses to use his finger injury as an excuse for his poor play, which is appropriate considering his struggles started well before the December 17th setback. The 6’8″ power forward has yet to record a double-double this season, despite reaching that mark thirteen times as a freshman.
5. Billy Donovan is looking to his bench to fill the void left by the ankle injury of center Patric Young. “Pat is obviously a big part of our team,” Florida forward Erik Murphy said. “He’s going through a little bit of an injury, and we have got to pick up the slack, step up. All of us collectively as a group need to.” Young is expected to play on Saturday against LSU, but how much and how effective he is remains to be seen. If Young is unable to play significant minutes, Donovan could turn to freshman Cody Larson. “I’m gaining more and more confidence and trust in Cody,” Donovan said. “I’ve put him in now the last several games, and he’s given us some good minutes.” Young was limited to just 13 minutes in the Gators’ last game against South Carolina.

In Their Own Words will be a regular feature on the SEC Microsite that will explore tweets, quotes, videos or any other type of media outlet where players or coaches choose to communicate.

Ole Miss – Mississippi State

The Egg Bowl rivalry has created some good ole-fashioned trash-talking from some of the players involved. Mississippi State’s Dee Bost had this to say about the game:

@DBost3: We in Oxford tomorrow lol

LOL indeed, Dee. Oxford… Laughing out loud. But I guess in retrospect, playing in Tad Smith Coliseum is no laughing matter. It seems like Bost waged war with the Rebels with that comment, but then later he was ready to call a truce. Sort of:

Dee Bost added fuel to the fire in an already hostile rivalry against Ole Miss

@DBost3: I wish these ole miss ppl stop tweeting me damn get a life

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