Michael James is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League. You can also find his musings on Twitter at @ivybball.
Reader’s Take
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With Alex Rosenberg back in the mix, is it Columbia’s year? (USA TODAY Sports)
Unusual Suspects – The last time Harvard failed to receive a first-place vote in the preseason Ivy media poll, Cornell was wrapping up its three-peat in a season that would see the Big Red ultimately advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Five Ivy titles and four NCAA appearances later, the Crimson finds itself slotted fourth while the first-place votes were split as evenly as possible across the three favorites: Columbia, Princeton and Yale. Those three schools have combined for just one NCAA appearance over the last 11 seasons, and the Lions and Bulldogs haven’t made the Tournament since the 1960s. Yale arguably has the inside track after winning a share of the Ivy title last season, but Princeton returns all of its key contributors from a team that finished a strong third, and Columbia not only brings back a substantial portion of its squad but also adds former first-team All-Ivy forward Alex Rosenberg, who missed last year with a Jones fracture in his right foot.
Posted by Michael James @ivybball on December 5th, 2014
Michael James is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League. You can also find his musings on Twitter at @ivybball.
Looking Back
Soft Around The Middle – The biggest theme of the preseason Ivy media teleconference was the league’s historic depth. In fact, one set of rankings had six Ivy teams among the top 169 squads nationally, which would have bested last year’s record five teams in the top 170. Through the first three weeks of the season, Harvard and Yale have held up their ends of the bargain, checking in at 34th and 83rd in Pomeroy, respectively, while the rest of the league has struggled mightily. Columbia lost preseason Player of the Year candidate Alex Rosenberg and has watched its offensive efficiency go from 119th nationally last season to 203rd this year. While the Lions have managed to stay at 139th in Pomeroy on the strength of great defensive numbers, no other Ivy squad currently ranks among the top 170. In fact, only Princeton is close (190th), while the remaining four league teams are clustered between 256th and 274th.
Despite their serious faces, James Jones (Yale) and Tommy Amaker (Harvard) have their teams playing very well right now.
Awards Watch – Two Ivy players have made the initial watch lists for two prestigious national awards. Harvard point guard Siyani Chambers made the Bob Cousy Award Watch List for the third time in his three seasons in Cambridge. The 6’0″ junior has struggled to start the campaign, including a nine-turnover performance in a loss to Holy Cross, but has started to turn the corner with 12 points and five assists against Houston and nine assists versus just two turnovers against Massachusetts. Chambers’ backcourt mate Wesley Saunders has been on a tear to start the season, averaging 24 PPG over Harvard’s first four Division I games and ranking in the Top 500 nationally in 14 of the 15 KenPom statistical categories. His efforts have been noticed by the Atlanta Tipoff Club, which listed Saunders as one of the 50 players on its initial Naismith Award Watch List.
Reader’s Take
Power Rankings
Harvard (5-1) – The loss to Holy Cross in its first game against Division I competition dropped the Crimson from the national conversation for a bit, but the underlying metrics for Harvard are very, very positive. Sure, the free throw defense which has seen opponents shoot just 61 percent from the line will regress, and the Crimson likely can’t shoot 43 percent on two-point jumpers over the course of an entire season. Those are minor nits, though, compared to the factors which will likely provide the Crimson a positive boost. Senior forward Jonah Travis has missed every game since the opener versus MIT. Chambers has posted an offensive efficiency rating of 79 points per 100 possessions and a turnover rate of 31 percent, both of which should improve dramatically. Finally, the Crimson’s stifling defense has only turned opponents over on 18 percent of possessions, easily the lowest rate since Tommy Amaker arrived in Cambridge and something that should stabilize, contributing a couple more possessions per game where the opponent goes scoreless and an opportunity might exist in transition. Read the rest of this entry »
We have been focusing quite a bit on the academic scandals at North Carolina and Syracuse quite a bit recently, but the one that is reported to to have occurred at Southern Mississippi might lead to more immediate repercussions. According to Jason King, current Tennessee coach Donnie Tyndall is alleged to have used a scheme where “Prop 48” recruits were reimbursed for tuition, living expenses, and other fees prior to qualifying for scholarships. At issue is the way these recruits were reimbursed. As Gary Parrish points out it would be relatively easy for a program to pull something similar off, but it would require more subtlety. While potential NCAA sanctions against Southern Mississippi are obviously a concern, we are almost more interested in what will happen at Tennessee where they hired Tyndall in the wake of Cuonzo Martin’s departure and are still in the shadow of Bruce Pearl’s NCAA violations. We wouldn’t put it on the level of Rutgers’ inability to vet candidates, but it might not be that far off.
If you are a regular reader of the Morning Five, you are already somewhat familiar with our opinion of the graduate transfer waiver. The rule essentially allows a player who completes an undergraduate degree with eligibility remaining to transfer to another institution without having to sit out a year as long as they are enrolling in a graduate degree program that is not available at their previous school. The NCAA decided to look into how often those individuals actually complete the degree and the numbers are not pretty. Of the graduate student transfers they were able to track between 2011 and 2012, only 32% of men’s basketball players graduated from those programs and 59% withdrew as soon as their eligibility expired. We would be interested in seeing more details on this, but these statistics add ammunition to those who question the true intent behind many of these graduate student transfers. This is not to say that the waiver should be eliminated, but that schools and coaches who claim to oppose it should probably take a better look at the apparent intents of these transfers if they want to keep talking about being educational institutions.
Many consider Ivy League sports archaic, but few would consider their rules as being detrimental to education. That is except in the case of Columbia forward Alex Rosenberg, who will miss the upcoming season after suffering a Jones fracture in his right foot and withdrew from school this year due to an Ivy League rule that makes it essentially impossible to get a medical redshirt. On some level we understand the theory that the student-athlete should be there for school first and staying a fifth year just to play basketball seems to be a fairly trivial thing, but in a situation like this it is actually hindering his educational experience. On the bright side, it will mean that Columbia should get Rosenberg, who was a first-team All-Ivy selection last season while averaging 16 points per game on 43 percent from 3-point range, for the full 2015-16 season rather than just part of this season at most. Given the way that the Ivy League awards its automatic bid–regular season champ–this solution might work out for the best for Columbia.
We can always count on the NCAA to make rulings much more complex than they need to be. Yesterday, Wisconsin put out a press release saying that forward Duje Dukan had regained a year of eligibility and would be able to play this season. As Eric Clark points out, the issue is more complex than that as Dukan was denied a medical redshirt for mononucleosis during the 2012-13 season, but played in a secret scrimmage and an exhibition game that year before shutting down for the season. Although the NCAA is giving Dukan his season back they are saying that he will have to sit out for two games this season (basically two games for every game he played that year with the secret scrimmage apparently not counting toward that total). In the end, Dukan missing games against Northern Kentucky and Chattanooga will not matter in the overall picture for Wisconsin’s season, but it does serve to highlight the absurdity of some of the NCAA’s rules.
With the way that everything in sports are being commercialized, we do find it a little interesting that Bill Raftery is just getting around to filing a trademark for some of his (not quite yet) trademark phrases. Raftery is applying for trademarks for the phrases “Onions” and “With a kiss” when used during a sports broadcast or on athletic apparel. Given how well Raftery is associated with those phrases it certainly makes sense for him to cash in and collect a little money for himself and his family going forward. We are a little surprised he didn’t apply for a trademark for “Send it in, Jerome”, but we guess there are not that many situations where you could use that.
The past 10 days have been especially fraught with injuries and suspensions and ineligibility rulings, many of which are sure to affect conference races across the Other 26. Let’s examine some of the major losses and their impact as the season approaches:
Isaac Fotu’s career might be over at Hawaii. (Charles Simmons/chasingthemomentphoto.com)
Isaac Fotu– F – Hawaii. Just a couple days after head coach Gib Arnold was abruptly fired, Hawaii lost its best player last week when Fotu was ruled ineligible due to an ongoing improper benefits investigation. The 6’8’’ all-conference forward averaged 14.9 PPG and 6.1 RPG a year ago and figured to at least keep the Warriors competitive in the Big West. Without him, the outlook is much grimmer. Christian Standhardinger – last year’s leading scorer and rebounder – graduated and starting point guard Keith Shamburger transferred to Missouri, leaving shooting guard Garrett Nevels (13.1 PPG) as Hawaii’s lone returning starter. In fact, he will be the only returner who averaged more than five points per game in 2013-14, meaning Hawaii is effectively a collection of young, unproven players adapting to a new coach with the season opener right around the corner. If Fotu does not return – which appears to be the case, as of late Monday night – this could be a rough season in Honolulu. Read the rest of this entry »
Michael James is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League. You can also find his musings on Twitter at @mrjames2006 and @ivybball.
Reader’s Take
Looking Back
Not Your Older Brother’s Ivy League: By Adjusted Pythagorean Winning Percentage – the same method used by Ken Pomeroy to rank teams – this year’s Ivy League is far and away the best since roaring ’70s, which culminated with Penn’s Final Four run. Turns out, the RPI isn’t far behind. The previous high-water mark for the league was 2002, when Penn won the league in a three-way playoff with Princeton and Yale. That year, the Quakers finished with the highest RPI ranking (#37) that any league team has had since Princeton’s amazing 1998 season. The Tigers wrapped up the season at #79 and the Bulldogs closed their campaign at #98, marking the first time the Ivies had three Top 100 RPI teams. The league’s average RPI was #160, best in the era for which data is available, barely edging last season’s average of #173.
After a rough start, this year’s edition of the league has made an assault on that 2002 mark. Harvard sits comfortably in the RPI Top 50, while Penn, Princeton and Yale are hovering on the cusp of the Top 100 to make four Ivies in the Top 125. The 2012 average RPI currently stands at #169, but that’s primarily because all eight 2002 squads finished ahead of this year’s laggards Brown and Dartmouth. While it’s completely within the Crimson’s control to track down the 2002 Quakers for best RPI since the 1998 Princeton squad, the league’s teams will need a bit of help from their non-conference opponents to claim the mark for best average, since league play tends to be mostly a zero-sum game from a rankings perspective.
As Teams Like Brown Drop From Contention, Keith Wright And The Crimson Continue To Hold The Keys.
Given that the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament, there is no second chance to save a season once a team falls out of the league race. With each Ivy Check-In for the rest of the year, this section will break down which squads’ seasons came to a premature end, and which are sliding quickly into the danger zone.
MAYBE NEXT YEAR:
Dartmouth (0-4): The Big Green has been full of surprising moments all year, including holding a seven-point lead in the second half at Harvard in each school’s Ivy opener. But Dartmouth got outscored 90-51 over the next 55 minutes to drop both ends of the travel partner series to the Crimson and then blew second-half leads at both Brown and Yale to fall to 0-4.
Brown (1-3): After getting swept by Yale to kickoff the Ivy campaign, the Bears narrowly avoided the cellar by grabbing a comeback win over Dartmouth at home. Brown had to have a win over league favorite Harvard the next night to stay in the race and hung in with the Crimson for 20 minutes before a 13-0 run gave the visitors all the cushion they would need to cruise to victory. Now the Bears have been relegated to the role of spoiler with Penn and Princeton coming to town next weekend.
Columbia (1-3): A 20-6 run to pull even with Cornell at 53 seemed to give the Lions new life in what was quite properly referred to as an Ivy elimination game. The Big Red responded with big bucket after big bucket over the final six minutes to withstand the charge and edge Columbia, 65-60.
THE WAITING ROOM:
Cornell (2-2): A series of mediocre results has the Big Red alive heading into its trip to Boston next Friday, but a win over Harvard is an absolute must to stay in the race. An upset there could give the Big Red a clear shot at 6-2, which would keep it in the thick of things heading into back-to-back road trips including dates with Penn, Princeton and Yale.
Princeton (1-2): The results weren’t expected to be great for a team with five-straight road games to start Ivy play, but two losses are still just as damaging if they come against good teams or bad. The Tigers now need to sweep a tricky road swing to Yale and Brown and take care of Dartmouth at home to set up an opportunity to get back into the race with a visit from Harvard.
Michael James is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League. You can also find his musings on Twitter at @mrjames2006 and @ivybball.
Reader’s Take
Looking Back
Contenders and Pretenders: The first Ivy League back-to-back weekend is in the books, though for only half of the league’s teams. In true 14-game tournament fashion, it took just one weekend for the Ivy title race to change pretty drastically. With a road sweep of Cornell and Columbia, Pennsylvania immediately vaulted into the number one contender spot behind Harvard. The New York trip will be the second-toughest in the Ivies this season (the Princeton/Philadelphia swing will be slightly more treacherous), so escaping it with a 2-0 mark puts the Quakers in great shape to hang around the title race deep into the season.
Zack Rosen And The Quakers Hope They Have All Their Kinks Ironed Out So They Can Make A Run At Harvard.
The weekend wasn’t as kind to Columbia, which had two separate comeback bids fall short against Pennsylvania and Princeton, losing both games by a combined six points. The Lions had entered Ivy play at 9-1 in their last ten games, but all it takes is one rough back-to-back to see title hopes get dashed. Columbia still has a chance at a postseason berth in one of the 16-team events, but will likely need to close with eight or nine wins in its final 12 games – a slate that includes two meetings with Harvard.
The Tigers and Big Red emerged from the weekend alive, but endangered.Princeton is in better shape than Cornell, as road splits are excusable, while home splits can be deadly. The Tigers face the daunting task of playing their first five games on the road, which also means seven of the final nine at home, so Princeton can fall a little behind early and still maintain a realistic hope to catch the leaders down the stretch. Cornell doesn’t have that luxury. The Big Red must sweep travel partner Columbia over the next two weeks to stay in the race and set the table for a battle with preseason favorite Harvard at Lavietes Pavilion.
Yale survived a surprising scare at home against lowly Brown, trailing by seven at the half and six with just over three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-3 run. The Bulldogs look to complete the sweep this weekend to remain perfect heading into their meeting with Harvard on January 27. Read the rest of this entry »
