NCAA Game Analysis: First Four – Wednesday Night

Posted by Walker Carey on March 19th, 2014

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The First Round/Opening Round/Play-In Games/Mild Annoyance of the NCAA Tournament continues tonight, getting under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV (go ahead, try to remember where that channel is again). From 68 to 16 in the next six days… let’s analyze the next two games this evening.

#16 Cal Poly vs. #16 Texas Southern — Midwest Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 pm ET on truTV.

Losing Record, No Problem: Cal Poly is Dancing

Losing Record, No Problem: Cal Poly is Dancing

Battling for the right to face one-seed Wichita State in St. Louis on Friday are Big West Tournament champion, Cal Poly, and SWAC Tournament champion, Texas Southern. Cal Poly enters Wednesday evening’s action with an uninspiring 13-19 record, but it should be noted that five of those 19 setbacks came on the road against fellow NCAA Tournament teams (at Arizona, at Oregon, at Pittsburgh, at Stanford, and at Delaware). The team caught fire in the Big West Tournament and won three games in three days to punch its ticket to the program’s first-ever NCAA Tournament. The Mustangs are led by senior forward Chris Eversley, who averages a team-best 13.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. While the Mustangs are 327th in the country in scoring average, their defense is fairly stout, as the opposition only averages 63.4 points per contest – good for 36th nationally. Texas Southern is nearly the polar opposite of Cal Poly, as it has scored well all season but has failed to defend with any regularity. The well-traveled Aaric Murray (formerly of La Salle and West Virginia) leads the way for the similarly well-traveled Mike Davis (formerly of Indiana and UAB) and the Tigers. Murray averages 21.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game and will create a significant match-up problem for the Mustangs on the interior. Look for Murray to lead the way for Texas Southern, as it will advance to battle #1 seed Wichita State on Friday.

The RTC Certified Pick: Texas Southern

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NCAA Tournament Tidbits: 03.19.14 Edition

Posted by Griffin Wong on March 19th, 2014

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March Madness is finally upon us, and we here at RTC are here to make everything a little bit easier for you. From the First Four until One Shining Moment, we’ll be dropping daily tidbits of knowledge regarding the teams in each region.

South Region

West Region

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Morning Five: 03.19.14 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 19th, 2014

morning5

  1. Bruce Pearl still has a few months left on his show-cause penalty, but that isn’t stopping Auburn from hiring him to a six-year deal worth $14.7 million. Since it appears that the NCAA won’t raise any objection with the hiring (the lead investigator on the case works for Auburn now) it seems like a great move by Auburn. We would be tempted to question Pearl’s decision to take the Auburn job, but when you have been blacklisted by the NCAA for three years and technically still are you have to take what is available. Our only question is that now that the door has been opened by Auburn, how long will Pearl stay there before moving on to a better job. The school appear to be weary enough of that they included a clause where he will have to pay $5 million if he leaves within two years meaning that he will actually lose money on the deal if he does so.
  2. We would not have considered Boston College’s decision to fire Steve Donahue that surprising if not for Pete Thamel’s recent report that they were retaining Donahue. Assuming that Thamel’s sources were good it is a pretty abrupt change of course for the program. Having said that it seemed like it would only be a matter of time before Donahue was gone as he was 54-76 in four seasons with his first season being by far his most successful. Boston College is one of the more interesting job openings because many people consider a spot with great potential because of its proximity to several great AAU and high school programs, but nobody has been able to tap into that potential.
  3. Donahue was not the only big name who was shown the door yesterday as Washington State fired Ken Bone yesterday. Bone went 80-86 in five seasons and had a difficult task of following up Tony Bennett, who went 69-33 in his three seasons there while leading the Cougars to two NCAA Tournament appearances including a Sweet Sixteen (and is also doing an ok job in Charlottesville). Pullman might not seem like a great destination to the outside observer, but it is still in the Pac-12 and has quite a bit of talent in the region to draw from. If they are able to lure one of the names mentioned in the link above they could be competitive in the Pac-12 in the not too distant future.
  4. We had almost forgotten about the strange circumstances under which Providence suspended Rodney Bullock and Brandon Austin. The pair of prized freshmen were suspended on November 6 for “not upholding their responsibilities as student-athletes” and nobody paid much attention to it after that except when Austin transferred to Oregon. Now it appears that a woman is claiming that the pair sexually assaulted her on November 3–three days before they were suspended. We aren’t going to say that the two events are related, but the optics don’t look good. Outside of the obvious legal implications we have to wonder what this will mean for Austin, Bullock, and Providence administrators.
  5. The transfer market is starting to heat up as two big names–UNLV’s Bryce Dejean-Jones and Temple’s Anthony Lee–entered it in the past few days.  Dejean-Jones was UNLV’s leading scorer this year, but had some off-court issues that likely led to his decision to transfer for his senior year. He is on pace to graduate this summer so he will likely be able to play next season with the graduate student transfer waiver. Lee averaged 13.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game and has also decided to transfer for his senior year. Lee has already graduated and is expected to use a graduate student transfer waiver.

Rushed Reactions: #12 NC State 74, #12 Xavier 59

Posted by Steve Smith on March 18th, 2014

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCeastregion@RTCMWregion@RTCsouthregion and @RTCwestregion.

Three Key Takeaways in NC State’s First Four win.

TJ Warren Started Slowly But Came On Strong When It Mattered Most (credit: RNO)

TJ Warren Started Slowly But Came On Strong When It Mattered Most (credit: RNO)

  1. A balanced attack without T.J. Warren stealing the show. NC State was in control for seemingly the entire game, even when Xavier went on a several runs that threatened to challenge them. Once again, Ralston Turner, who finished the night with 17 points, stepped up when TJ Warren struggled early. And Tyler Lewis did his part to fill in for an ailing Anthony Barber, who played only eight first half minutes due to a fever and stomach illness. Lewis contributed seven points and eight assists, the final of which capped off the evening with a lob to Jordan Vandenburg for a dunk.
  2. NC State is not the same team without T.J. Warren on the floor. Even though several others stepped up for Mark Gottfried tonight, the team really struggled when Warren went out early in the first half with two fouls. After his return, NC State went on a quick 10-2 run to widen the lead to 22-14. When he was out again in the second half, Xavier went on another run, but upon his return he quickly scored on a fadeaway runner and on an emphatic one-handed dunk within the first minute. NC State’s fortunes for the rest of this NCAA Tournament will completely depend on how far Warren carries it — he’s that good.
  3. Xavier shot 14 percent from three-point range. Xavier came into this game shooting 35 percent from distance on the year as a team, but they missed several key open looks down the stretch that could have kept them afloat. With Warren doing his thing on the other end, the Musketeers needed to keep pace and all of the bricked threes simply wouldn’t allow for it. A reasonable nine-point margin quickly shot up to an unmanageable 17-point difference as a result of all those missed threes down the stretch.

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Rushed Reactions: #16 Albany 71, #16 Mount St. Mary’s 64

Posted by Steve Smith on March 18th, 2014

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCeastregion, @RTCMWregion, @RTCsouthregion and @RTCwestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

Albany is All Smiles as the Danes Advance to the Round of 64 (AP/Skip Peterson)

Albany is All Smiles as the Danes Advance to the Round of 64 (AP/Skip Peterson)

  1. Back to back 21-2 runs don’t happen that often… Albany opened the game by going on a 21-2 tear, and it appeared as if they were about to put the game completely out of reach early. Mount St. Mary’s roared back with an equally impressive 21-2 run of their own to even things up, and the rest of the evening settled into a close back-and-forth contest the rest of the way.
  2. The difference in the game: tempo. Albany’s bench is shallow and only played 16 total minutes beyond the starters. Mount St. Mary’s likes to play a fast-paced game, but they were atrocious from the field in the first 10 minutes. They did a great job forcing Albany to pick up the tempo by pressing in the second half, and when they did, Albany made too many mistakes. Mount St. Mary’s seemed to go away from what got them there in the last 10 minutes, purposely slowing things down, which allowed Albany not only to stay fresh, but to take the advantage down the stretch.
  3. First round jitters. Both teams looked very sloppy at times, and this allowed for some streaky runs from both in the first half. Mount St. Mary’s started the game 0-of-11 from the field, including an ice-cold 0-of-6 from beyond the arc. Albany had 14 turnovers, but Mount St. Mary’s failed to capitalize on enough of those opportunities. Ultimately the poor three-point shooting in the first half by Mount St. Mary’s led to their demise. One bright light was Will Miller, who was 7-of-12 from three-point range and seemed to knock down shot after critical shot to change momentum when they needed it most.

Star of the GameD.J. Evans, Albany – Evans set the stage in the opening minutes with several key baskets and assists, and he always seemed to be there when Albany needed him the most. He had nine rebounds to go along with his team-leading 22 points, despite being just 5’9”. His ball-handling was instrumental to the Danes’ victory, as Mount St. Mary’s caused most of their turnovers when he was off the floor. He also had a critical rebound off a Mount St. Mary’s miss with 12 seconds remaining, and hit both free throws to ice the game.

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The RTC Podblasts: South and West Regions

Posted by rtmsf on March 18th, 2014

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And now, for the analysis. This is the second of two posts that we will be publishing today, the contents of which will contain two regional preview RTC Podblasts each — make sure to check out the East and Midwest podblasts that were released this morning. We continue the series this afternoon with a breakdown of the South Region bracket, inviting RTC national columnist Bennet Hayes (@hoopstraveler) in to talk through whether the Gators are really the best team in America. We follow that up with analysis of the West Region bracket, bringing national columnist/Pac-12 guru Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) in to discuss a west-coast flavored region that appears to be Arizona and the Rest. The full rundowns are below. Be sure to add the podcast to your lineup on iTunes so that you’ll get all of our ongoing coverage throughout the NCAA Tournament.

South Region

  • 0:00-7:17 – Florida the Favorite
  • 7:17-17:38 – UCLA, Kansas and Syracuse Try to Knock Off #1 Overall Seed
  • 17:38-20:36 – VCU, Stephen 5. Austin and The Trendy #5/#12 Upset
  • 20:36-25:18 – #7/#10 and #8/#9 Games
  • 25:18-26:50 – Seeding Injustices in the South
  • 26:50-27:58 – Great Potential Match-ups
  • 27:58-30:52 – Bennet’s Pick for the South

West Region

  • 0:00-6:03 – Arizona Hands Down Favorite
  • 6:03-10:41 – Top Challengers For Arizona
  • 10:41-13:28 – Match-ups For McBuckets
  • 13:28-14:57 – Potential Upsets For the 4/5 Seeds
  • 14:57-15:57 – Mis-seeded Teams
  • 15:57-19:21 – #8/#9 and #7/#10 Games
  • 19:21-21:22 – Dark Horse Sweet Sixteen Teams
  • 21:22-23:23 – Predicting MOP
  • 23:23-24:45 – Dream Match-ups
  • 24:45-26:35 – Madness and Offense Could Reign Supreme in the West
  • 26:35-28:59 – West Coast Teams in the West Region
  • 28:59-30:31 – Non-Arizona Picks

NCAA Game Analysis: First Four – Tuesday Night

Posted by Bennet Hayes & Walker Carey on March 18th, 2014

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The First Round/Opening Round/Play-In Games/Mild Annoyance of the NCAA Tournament begins tonight, getting under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV (go ahead, try to remember where that channel is again). From 68 to 16 in the next six days… let’s analyze the first two games this evening.

#16 Albany vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s — South Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 pm ET on truTV.

Sam Prescott And Mount St. Mary's Will Look To Continue Their Improbable  March Run In Dayton On Tuesday Night

Sam Prescott And Mount St. Mary’s Will Look To Continue Their Improbable March Run In Dayton On Tuesday Night

It may be too late to fill in that blank space under Florida in the brackets floating around the office, but Mount St. Mary’s and Albany will battle Tuesday night for a space in the official field of 64. The First Four foes took a similar path to Dayton: Both bumbled through 9-7 league seasons, earned the #4 seed in the conference tournament, then won three games (including one over the regular season champion) to advance into the field of 68. It was the same route for the Great Danes and Mountaineers, but they drove different vehicles along the way. Albany relied on a stout defense – particular against the two-point shot – and timely three-point shooting to claim the America East crown, while Mount St. Mary’s sprinted through a NEC Tournament final where the Mounts averaged 1.28 points per possession in a 17-point win at #1 seed Robert Morris. If Mount St. Mary’s (32nd nationally in possessions/game) can maintain that quick tempo against the Great Danes, they have to like their odds of advancing, but Albany (313th in possessions/game) will be doing everything possible to play a game featuring 65 possessions or fewer. KenPom gives the Great Danes a slight edge to seize victory in the NCAA Tournament opener, but we’ll put our faith in Mount St. Mary’s to move on to face Florida. Not only did the Mountaineers emerge from a tougher conference, but their up-tempo attack should allow them to fully capitalize on the adrenaline rush that the national spotlight will surely provide.

The RTC Certified Pick: Mount St. Mary’s

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NCAA Tournament Tidbits: 03.18.14 Edition

Posted by Griffin Wong on March 18th, 2014

RTC_tourneycoverage

March Madness is finally upon us, and we here at RTC are here to make everything a little bit easier for you. From the First Four until One Shining Moment, we’ll be dropping daily tidbits of knowledge regarding the teams in each region.

South Region

West Region

Read the rest of this entry »

The RTC Podblasts: East and Midwest Regions

Posted by rtmsf on March 18th, 2014

RTC_tourneycoverage

And now, for the analysis. Welcome to the first of two posts that we will be publishing today, the contents of which will contain two regional preview RTC Podblasts each. We’ll start with a breakdown of the East Region bracket, inviting RTC national columnist Brian Otskey (@botskey) in to talk things through what appears to be a wild region with us. We follow that up with analysis of the Midwest Region bracket, inviting national columnist Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) in to discuss a very difficult draw for #1 seed Wichita State. The full rundowns are below. Be sure to add the podcast to your lineup on iTunes so that you’ll get all of our ongoing coverage throughout the NCAA Tournament.

 

East Region

  • 0:00-3:31 – Virginia as a #1 Seed and Region Favorite
  • 3:34-10:25 – Which Top Seed is the Real Favorite
  • 10:25-12:25 – Providence’s Big East Run – Hitting Their Stride or Peaking Too Early?
  • 12:25-16:11 – 8/9 and 7/10 Games Preview
  • 16:11-23:10 – Potential Upsets and Darkhorses
  • 23:10-25:22 – Match-up Issues for Virginia
  • 25:22-26:40 – Dream Match Ups
  • 26:40-30:30 – Regional Games at MSG

Midwest Region

  • 0:00-4:34 – Louisville as the Real Favorite in the Midwest
  • 4:34-7:33 – UMass Prone For an Upset?
  • 7:33-13:04 – Previewing 7/10 and 8/9 Game
  • 13:04-13:53 – Conference Tournaments Impact on Midwest Region
  • 13:53-16:35 – TJ Warren and the Fightin’ NC States
  • 16:35-21:34 – Wichita State’s Realistic Expectations in this Region
  • 21:35-23:28 – Predicting an MOP in the Midwest
  • 23:28-25:49 – Most Exciting Thing About the Region
  • 25:49-28:08 – Dream Match-Ups

Morning Five: 03.18.14 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 18th, 2014

morning5

  1. The coaching carousel has continued to turn with two spots opening up yesterday. The big opening was at Virginia Tech where they fired James Johnson after he won just 22 games in two seasons. Johnson was hired to replace current ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg after serving as an assistant under Greenberg. We will not try to make excuses for the Hokies’ performance under Johnson, but he was not helped by Dorian Finney-Smith and Montrezl Harrell leaving the school after Greenberg was fired. On a much smaller level, Southeastern Louisiana fired Jim Yarbrough after nine seasons in which Yarbrough went 133-135. Being two games under .500 might not be that bad, but most of Yarbrough’s success was early as he was over .500 in five of his first six seasons.
  2. One of the interesting things with gambling scandals in sports is that they largely tend to be forgotten (Pete Rose being the obvious exception). This issue has made headlines recently at several schools where players may have been involved with point-shaving. The most famous case in college basketball history involved City College of New York between 1949 and 1951, but the one involving Boston College would probably be a close second. The Boston Globe has a phenomenal story on the background and aftermath of the scandal. The most amusing thing about this scandal was how poorly it worked for the people trying to fix the games.
  3. Most of you are aware of how obsessed with basketball some members of Big Blue Nation are, but the level that some of them go to is beyond what you might imagine. To be fair this could happen with any fan group. Former Kentucky legend Rex Chapman recently told the story of one such fan, who befriended Chapman’s mother, and became friends with Chapman. This was fine until Chapman gave the fan his number and the fan has been harassing him ever since. The fan appears to be good-natured about it and is bugging Chapman the way that a teenage girl would probably bother Justin Bieber is they got his number, but Chapman has decided to put the fan “on blast” as a means to get him to stop. Somehow we don’t think it will work.
  4. The Selection Committee may not put much value in Louisville, but Forbes certainly does. According to Forbes the Cardinals are the most valuable college basketball team at a valuation of $39.5 million. While the Cardinals being the most valuable team in the country might surprise some the others on the list are not a surprise (the Cardinals being on list is not a surprise just their place a top the list is). What we find more interesting is how far off the valuation is from that of pro sports teams and how close some coaching contracts come to the reported value of the teams (obviously we would need to discount the value of salaries for future years).
  5. Indiana might not be a top-tier team this year, but don’t tell that to tell. After missing out on the NCAA and NIT Tournament, the Hoosiers were offered a spot in the CBI and not so politely declined the offer. Indiana’s AD issued a statement saying, “We’re Indiana. We don’t play in the CBI.” When programs pull power plays like this we often wonder about the repercussions including players having their career ending early and coaches missing out on bonuses. One interesting aspect of this decision was that it may have been influenced by Kentucky’s opening round NIT loss to Robert Morris last year.