North Carolina has its hands full tonight with its first round match-up against #11 Providence. The Friars are red-hot at the moment, coming off a Big East Tournament title that included an upset win over Creighton. Head coach Ed Cooley placed a premium on winning the title in Madison Square Garden because the Friars hadn’t won it since 1994 and only once in the past 34 years. Providence may have lucked out in avoiding top seed Villanova after the Wildcats were upset by Seton Hall at the buzzer, but they still managed to get past the Bluejays and college basketball’s likely NPOY. The Friars’ best player, senior guard Bryce Cotton, was a unanimous first team all-Big East selection and he is a handful for any defense. A capable scorer who has increased his distribution skills this year, Cotton is much like North Carolina’s Marcus Paige in that they are both rail-thin, ball-dominating guards that are relied upon heavily from the perimeter. Their battle at that position will be one of the key match-ups in this game, and if Paige can play Cotton even or better, the Tar Heels will be well positioned to advance.

The competitor in Marcus Paige must be looking forward to his matchup with Bryce Cotton ( Robert Willett/ Raleigh News & Observer)

• KenPom projection: UNC 75, Providence 71 (63% UNC, 37% PC)
• FiveThirtyEight.com projection: UNC 68%, PC 32%

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCeastregion, @RTCMWregion, @RTCsouthregion and @RTCwestregion.

Three Key Takeaways in NC State’s First Four win.

TJ Warren Started Slowly But Came On Strong When It Mattered Most (credit: RNO)

1. A balanced attack without T.J. Warren stealing the show. NC State was in control for seemingly the entire game, even when Xavier went on a several runs that threatened to challenge them. Once again, Ralston Turner, who finished the night with 17 points, stepped up when TJ Warren struggled early. And Tyler Lewis did his part to fill in for an ailing Anthony Barber, who played only eight first half minutes due to a fever and stomach illness. Lewis contributed seven points and eight assists, the final of which capped off the evening with a lob to Jordan Vandenburg for a dunk.
2. NC State is not the same team without T.J. Warren on the floor. Even though several others stepped up for Mark Gottfried tonight, the team really struggled when Warren went out early in the first half with two fouls. After his return, NC State went on a quick 10-2 run to widen the lead to 22-14. When he was out again in the second half, Xavier went on another run, but upon his return he quickly scored on a fadeaway runner and on an emphatic one-handed dunk within the first minute. NC State’s fortunes for the rest of this NCAA Tournament will completely depend on how far Warren carries it — he’s that good.
3. Xavier shot 14 percent from three-point range. Xavier came into this game shooting 35 percent from distance on the year as a team, but they missed several key open looks down the stretch that could have kept them afloat. With Warren doing his thing on the other end, the Musketeers needed to keep pace and all of the bricked threes simply wouldn’t allow for it. A reasonable nine-point margin quickly shot up to an unmanageable 17-point difference as a result of all those missed threes down the stretch.

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCeastregion, @RTCMWregion, @RTCsouthregion and @RTCwestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

Albany is All Smiles as the Danes Advance to the Round of 64 (AP/Skip Peterson)

1. Back to back 21-2 runs don’t happen that often… Albany opened the game by going on a 21-2 tear, and it appeared as if they were about to put the game completely out of reach early. Mount St. Mary’s roared back with an equally impressive 21-2 run of their own to even things up, and the rest of the evening settled into a close back-and-forth contest the rest of the way.
2. The difference in the game: tempo. Albany’s bench is shallow and only played 16 total minutes beyond the starters. Mount St. Mary’s likes to play a fast-paced game, but they were atrocious from the field in the first 10 minutes. They did a great job forcing Albany to pick up the tempo by pressing in the second half, and when they did, Albany made too many mistakes. Mount St. Mary’s seemed to go away from what got them there in the last 10 minutes, purposely slowing things down, which allowed Albany not only to stay fresh, but to take the advantage down the stretch.
3. First round jitters. Both teams looked very sloppy at times, and this allowed for some streaky runs from both in the first half. Mount St. Mary’s started the game 0-of-11 from the field, including an ice-cold 0-of-6 from beyond the arc. Albany had 14 turnovers, but Mount St. Mary’s failed to capitalize on enough of those opportunities. Ultimately the poor three-point shooting in the first half by Mount St. Mary’s led to their demise. One bright light was Will Miller, who was 7-of-12 from three-point range and seemed to knock down shot after critical shot to change momentum when they needed it most.

Star of the Game. D.J. Evans, Albany – Evans set the stage in the opening minutes with several key baskets and assists, and he always seemed to be there when Albany needed him the most. He had nine rebounds to go along with his team-leading 22 points, despite being just 5’9”. His ball-handling was instrumental to the Danes’ victory, as Mount St. Mary’s caused most of their turnovers when he was off the floor. He also had a critical rebound off a Mount St. Mary’s miss with 12 seconds remaining, and hit both free throws to ice the game.

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Sing it with me: It’s the most wonderful time of the year. The Big Dance is finally upon us. After a terrific regular season, we finally have the bracket in our hands. Before the inexorable slide into ripping them up in exasperation, we are left with hope for a couple more days — hope that we can pick the right Final Four and National Champion. Hope that we can suss out the nearly impossible task of selecting which upsets will actually come to fruition. Will there be another Dunk City-esque run in 2014? Which Other 26 conference team will become America’s next darling? Well, we here at the O26 microsite will try to help you out. Let’s take a look at the O26 teams — starting with the Midwest and South Regions — and discuss the likelihood that each has to advance this week.

MIDWEST

Regional Threats. These are the teams that could be second- and third-weekend squads.

Wichita State, despite a tough road, could make another Final Four. (AP/Peter Aiken)

• Wichita State (#1 seed) — The Shockers might be the most polarizing team in the nation. Some people love ’em and want to see a repeat Final Four run, and others want to see them fall flat on their faces, validating their loud group of detractors. The fact is Wichita State is 34-0 and the first team since UNLV in 1991 to enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated. Well, if the Wheatshockers can return to the Final Four, they’ll shut those detractors up. They have arguably the toughest path to the Final Four out of all the #1 seeds. Preseason #1 Kentucky in the round of 32, a criminally underseeded #4 Louisville team in the Sweet Sixteen, and then either #2 seed Michigan or #3 seed Duke in the Elite Eight. Woof. This is Wichita State’s opportunity to show the nation just how good it is. And the Shockers are plenty good. They boast a top-10 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy. Star power forward Cleanthony Early also ranked seventh in KenPom’s player of the year rankings. With additional prospects in guard Ron Baker and point guard Fred VanVleet, the Shockers could find themselves in Arlington, Texas, in early April.

One and Done. These teams have a solid shot at winning their round of 64 game, but are unlikely to reach the second weekend.

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And now, for the analysis. This is the second of two posts that we will be publishing today, the contents of which will contain two regional preview RTC Podblasts each — make sure to check out the East and Midwest podblasts that were released this morning. We continue the series this afternoon with a breakdown of the South Region bracket, inviting RTC national columnist Bennet Hayes (@hoopstraveler) in to talk through whether the Gators are really the best team in America. We follow that up with analysis of the West Region bracket, bringing national columnist/Pac-12 guru Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) in to discuss a west-coast flavored region that appears to be Arizona and the Rest. The full rundowns are below. Be sure to add the podcast to your lineup on iTunes so that you’ll get all of our ongoing coverage throughout the NCAA Tournament.

South Region

• 0:00-7:17 – Florida the Favorite
• 7:17-17:38 – UCLA, Kansas and Syracuse Try to Knock Off #1 Overall Seed
• 17:38-20:36 – VCU, Stephen 5. Austin and The Trendy #5/#12 Upset
• 20:36-25:18 – #7/#10 and #8/#9 Games
• 25:18-26:50 – Seeding Injustices in the South
• 26:50-27:58 – Great Potential Match-ups
• 27:58-30:52 – Bennet’s Pick for the South

West Region

• 0:00-6:03 – Arizona Hands Down Favorite
• 6:03-10:41 – Top Challengers For Arizona
• 10:41-13:28 – Match-ups For McBuckets
• 13:28-14:57 – Potential Upsets For the 4/5 Seeds
• 14:57-15:57 – Mis-seeded Teams
• 15:57-19:21 – #8/#9 and #7/#10 Games
• 19:21-21:22 – Dark Horse Sweet Sixteen Teams
• 21:22-23:23 – Predicting MOP
• 23:23-24:45 – Dream Match-ups
• 24:45-26:35 – Madness and Offense Could Reign Supreme in the West
• 26:35-28:59 – West Coast Teams in the West Region
• 28:59-30:31 – Non-Arizona Picks

In 2011, the field for the NCAA Tournament was expanded from 64 to 68 teams, and the NCAA decided to call the first four games, played on the Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday, the “First Round” –thus creating the comical idea that some 60 teams receive byes into the second round. Everyone is wise to this, of course, and realizes the “First Four,” as the games are also named, are, in actuality, four “play-in” games. That year, upstart VCU snuck into one of the NCAA Tournament’s last four at-large spots, beat co-#11 seed USC in Dayton, and proceeded to win four more times in advancing to the school’s first Final Four. Since VCU’s historic run took place three seasons ago, it appears no team may be as well-equipped to duplicate the Rams’ feat as Tennessee this year. Prior to the season, the Volunteers were, in most places, considered a Top 25 team, and a shoo-in for the Big Dance. Things didn’t play out as expected, however, and Tennessee had to go 5-1 down the stretch – with the only loss coming to overall #1 seed Florida – to earn one of the last bids to the Tournament. Now that they’ve made the field, could this be the start of a run that could put all questions about Cuonzo Martin‘s job status to rest?

With Cuonzo Martin’s job maybe in jeopardy, a VCU-esque run would go a long way to solving that issue. (AP)

Based upon Tennessee’s recent play, which saw the Vols destroy its last four regular season opponents and South Carolina in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament by an average of 23 points, and gave #1 Florida a great test before falling short, there is evidence to suggest it may be. The Volunteers are experienced, starting three seniors and two juniors, and talented, with two first-team all-SEC performers in guard Jordan McRae (18.6 PPG) and Jarnell Stokes (14.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG) — one of two SEC players to average a double-double this season. They also have another rebounding stalwart in fifth-year senior Jeronne Maymon, who missed the 2012-13 campaign as a result of microfracture surgery. Maymon has struggled to regain his form, but he has shown signs lately of regaining some of his old skill set. The bulk Tennessee has on the inside with Stokes and Maymon presents a significant challenge for each of its opponents.

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The First Round/Opening Round/Play-In Games/Mild Annoyance of the NCAA Tournament begins tonight, getting under way at 6:40 PM tonight on truTV (go ahead, try to remember where that channel is again). From 68 to 16 in the next six days… let’s analyze the first two games this evening.

#16 Albany vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s — South Region First Round (at Dayton, OH) — 6:40 pm ET on truTV.

Sam Prescott And Mount St. Mary’s Will Look To Continue Their Improbable March Run In Dayton On Tuesday Night

It may be too late to fill in that blank space under Florida in the brackets floating around the office, but Mount St. Mary’s and Albany will battle Tuesday night for a space in the official field of 64. The First Four foes took a similar path to Dayton: Both bumbled through 9-7 league seasons, earned the #4 seed in the conference tournament, then won three games (including one over the regular season champion) to advance into the field of 68. It was the same route for the Great Danes and Mountaineers, but they drove different vehicles along the way. Albany relied on a stout defense – particular against the two-point shot – and timely three-point shooting to claim the America East crown, while Mount St. Mary’s sprinted through a NEC Tournament final where the Mounts averaged 1.28 points per possession in a 17-point win at #1 seed Robert Morris. If Mount St. Mary’s (32nd nationally in possessions/game) can maintain that quick tempo against the Great Danes, they have to like their odds of advancing, but Albany (313th in possessions/game) will be doing everything possible to play a game featuring 65 possessions or fewer. KenPom gives the Great Danes a slight edge to seize victory in the NCAA Tournament opener, but we’ll put our faith in Mount St. Mary’s to move on to face Florida. Not only did the Mountaineers emerge from a tougher conference, but their up-tempo attack should allow them to fully capitalize on the adrenaline rush that the national spotlight will surely provide.

The RTC Certified Pick: Mount St. Mary’s

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March Madness is finally upon us, and we here at RTC are here to make everything a little bit easier for you. From the First Four until One Shining Moment, we’ll be dropping daily tidbits of knowledge regarding the teams in each region.

South Region

• While Michigan State is a trendy pick to win it all, Florida, as the number one overall seed, remains the favorite at 4-1 odds.
• While Colorado coach Tad Boyle always gives his players credit, his players credit their “superstar” coach for this season’s success.
• Pittsburgh has had some tumultuous results in past NCAA Tournaments, but this year they’re looking to change history.
• Though VCU lost in the A-10 Tournament final, they still did well with the viewers at home.
• The NCAA Tournament is their prime focus right now, but UCLA standouts Kyle Anderson, Jordan Adams, and Zach LaVine all have NBA decisions lurking on the horizon.
• The other Ohio schools have a severe bias against Ohio State. Here is Benjamin Lanka’s plea for Dayton to dethrone the Buckeyes.
• Though a ticket in Buffalo is a tough get with Syracuse coming to town, spectators will be able to watch each team practice this Wednesday. 
• Excited about benefiting from extra rest, New Mexico coach Craig Neal and the Lobos are looking  to take care of some “unfinished business.“
• Stanford, in the words of coach Johnny Dawkins, are “relieved, but not vindicated” about finally reaching the NCAA Tournament. Even though his job was at stake, Dawkins never mentioned his job security to the team, and simply tried to put on the “blinders” to focus on basketball.
• Against a potentially dangerous Eastern Kentucky team, Kansas coach Bill Self has the Jayhawks focused on defending the three-point line, college basketball’s great equalizer.

West Region

• Arizona is coming into the NCAA Tournament with high expectations, but coach Sean Miller just wants the Wildcats to “focus on what’s in front of them.“
• Did sophomore superstar Marcus Smart’s suspension cost Oklahoma State a better seed? The unfortunate truth is that we’ll never know.
• Even though the Sooners made the Tournament last year, Oklahoma is ready to win at least one game this season. The road begins against a “really good” North Dakota State team.
• For San Diego State leader Xavier Thames, a move from Washington State to SDSU proved to be an opportunity to continue his knack for stepping up in clutch moments. As the Aztecs reach yet another NCAA Tournament, the message of his father rings ever true: “Do not be afraid of the moment.”
• They were dead in the water earlier this season, but could Baylor be the NCAA Tournament’s “most dangerous sleeper?” Brad Evans certainly thinks so.
• Even though Creighton is eyeing a deep run, it isn’t going to overlook its first round opponent, Louisiana-Lafayette. With Elfrid Payton’s 19 points per game, no one in Omaha is taking the Ragin’ Cajuns lightly.
• Even though March Madness is known for upsets and Cinderellas, BYU is getting disrespected with a rematch against Oregon in sight. 
• Oregon, unlike BYU, is getting love to win the rematch. However, sophomore Damyean Dotson is calling the Tournament a “new season.”
• Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan is in the NCAAs yet again, but this time his whole coaching tree – including Virginia’s Tony Bennett, North Dakota State’s Saul Phillips, and UW-Milwaukee’s Rob Jeter – is here with him.

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And now, for the analysis. Welcome to the first of two posts that we will be publishing today, the contents of which will contain two regional preview RTC Podblasts each. We’ll start with a breakdown of the East Region bracket, inviting RTC national columnist Brian Otskey (@botskey) in to talk things through what appears to be a wild region with us. We follow that up with analysis of the Midwest Region bracket, inviting national columnist Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) in to discuss a very difficult draw for #1 seed Wichita State. The full rundowns are below. Be sure to add the podcast to your lineup on iTunes so that you’ll get all of our ongoing coverage throughout the NCAA Tournament.

East Region

• 0:00-3:31 – Virginia as a #1 Seed and Region Favorite
• 3:34-10:25 – Which Top Seed is the Real Favorite
• 10:25-12:25 – Providence’s Big East Run – Hitting Their Stride or Peaking Too Early?
• 12:25-16:11 – 8/9 and 7/10 Games Preview
• 16:11-23:10 – Potential Upsets and Darkhorses
• 23:10-25:22 – Match-up Issues for Virginia
• 25:22-26:40 – Dream Match Ups
• 26:40-30:30 – Regional Games at MSG

Midwest Region

• 0:00-4:34 – Louisville as the Real Favorite in the Midwest
• 4:34-7:33 – UMass Prone For an Upset?
• 7:33-13:04 – Previewing 7/10 and 8/9 Game
• 13:04-13:53 – Conference Tournaments Impact on Midwest Region
• 13:53-16:35 – TJ Warren and the Fightin’ NC States
• 16:35-21:34 – Wichita State’s Realistic Expectations in this Region
• 21:35-23:28 – Predicting an MOP in the Midwest
• 23:28-25:49 – Most Exciting Thing About the Region
• 25:49-28:08 – Dream Match-Ups

At this point, you’ve probably filled out at least five brackets and torn up a few more. There are some match-ups you can’t wait to see and others you’re not so psyched about. There are trendy upset possibilities you agree with and some you’re staying away from precisely because everyone else seems to be leaning that way. You feel good about two of your four Final Four picks; the other two are toss-ups. If you filled out multiple brackets, there may be 16 teams about which you’ve casually tell your friends and co-workers, “I have them in the Final Four.” Me? I filled out one bracket, but I’m not here today to reveal my picks. That’d be more embarrassing than anything else; over the years I’ve come to learn a painful lesson: Watching and write about college hoops doesn’t make you any more likely to win your bracket pool than your football-obsessed friend who’s taken in two full games all season. What you see below are simply the first four thoughts that coalesced in my mind after I printed and scanned this year’s bracket for the first time, mere minutes after the selection show.

The Midwest region isn’t as tough as it seems (AP).

Did Wichita State Really Get ‘Screwed’? 

The reaction to Wichita State’s placement in the Midwest region with #2 Michigan, #3 Duke, #4 Louisville and #8 Kentucky was nearly unanimous: The Shockers are toast. This sentiment is understandable. Duke and Michigan are incredibly tough to guard; both rank in the top three in the country in points scored per possession. Louisville ranks second in Ken Pomeroy’s team ratings and has won 12 of its last 13 games, seemingly peaking at the perfect time. And in three SEC Tournament games, Kentucky more closely resembled the juggernaut we all predicted in the preseason – wrongfully, might I add – that would reach the Final Four. None of those teams will be easy to beat. This is a tough region; I’m not disputing that. Wichita State will have its hands full, for sure. But saying Wichita State got ‘screwed,’ or even that it faces a much tougher road to Arlington than, say, Florida, is a bit of a stretch, if you ask me. The most arduous path the Shockers could face is the following: Kentucky in the round of 32, Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen, and Duke in the Elite Eight. The only game out of those three I wouldn’t take Wichita State in is against Louisville, and that one would be a toss-up.

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