Both preseason polls have now been released as the AP Poll officially made its appearance on Halloween. The Big Ten placed five teams in the AP and six teams in the the USA Today/Coaches Poll. Here’s how all of the teams ranked in each poll, followed by some quick analysis as to what this means going forward.

Bo Ryan and Wisconsin are ranked in the top four of both major preseason polls. (AP)

(AP ranking followed by USA Today/Coaches Poll ranking)

• Wisconsin (#3) (#4)
• Michigan State (#18) (#18)
• Ohio State (#20) (#20)
• Nebraska (#21) (#21)
• Michigan (#24) (#23)
• Iowa (#28) (#25)
• Minnesota (#31) (#32)
• Maryland (#46) (NR)
• Illinois (#46) ( #42)

Wisconsin is Getting a Good Deal of Love

The Badgers have already been named a unanimous favorite to win the B1G by both the coaches and the writers, and they are also getting a good deal of respect nationally. Wisconsin received eight first-place votes in the AP Poll, and it also garnered three more in the USA Today/Coaches Poll. Returning four starters from a Final Four team along with the fact that Bo Ryan’s teams are typically better when they have experienced players played a key role in how these writers and coaches voted. But as we saw last season when Michigan State was ranked in the top five to start the season, it’s wise to not crown the Badgers as the Big Ten champs just yet. Even with Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig poised to take bigger roles in the rotation, depth could hinder the Badgers if they get hit with key injuries. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Can you believe that this upcoming year is Tom Izzo‘s 20th season in the Big Ten? Time certainly flies, doesn’t it? After this season he will become the third most-tenured coach in the nation after Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski and Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim. The Detroit Free Press recently asked the Michigan State head coach about the unexpected journey from when he first took the job in the mid-1990s to today. Regardless of when he retires from the game, Izzo will without question be one of the top four or five coaches in the history of Big Ten hoops. It is unlikely that he will get to his seventh Final Four this year without a true scoring threat on the roster, but it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to bet on him returning to the promised land before he retires in the next decade or so.
2. Leadership is absolutely essential on a Final Four contender, and Michigan had two excellent ones over the past two seasons: Trey Burke during its run to the national championship game in 2012-13 and Nik Stauskas during its Elite Eight run last year. One of the reasons why the Wolverines aren’t likely to be a contender this season is their clear lack of leadership, but head coach John Beilein doesn’t seem to be worried about that too much. Junior wing Caris LeVert should carry most of the offensive load this year but he has long way to go before he can prove leadership similar to Stauskas or Burke. When asked about his ability to lead, LeVert said, “I think naturally, I’m kind of wanting to lead by example more, but the coaches have been pushing me and my teammates as well, to kind of talk more and be more vocal, on the court as well as off the court.”
3. Indiana sophomore wing Devin Davis was seriously injured over the weekend in an accident involving a vehicle near Assembly Hall. According to his family, Davis is recovering very well, which should be positive news for Tom Crean’s squad. The following is the official statement: “As all parents can understand, the last 40+ hours have been difficult for us and for all of those who care about our son. Devin’s condition is improving and we know that there is a road to recovery ahead.” Davis only averaged 2.5 PPG last year and wasn’t expected to have a tremendous impact for the Hoosiers this season, but an event like this could have an adverse effect on the overall morale of a young team two weeks before the season tips off. His recovery is in all of our thoughts.
4. With only two weeks left until season tip-off, scrimmages are useful for coaches to figure out their rotations. While Ohio State has a lot of question marks on offense with the departure of LaQuinton Ross, freshman D’Angelo Russell has provided some hope for the Buckeyes’ fans after his most recent performance. In addition to his scoring, he also comforted Thad Matta with his passing because he needs more ball-handlers to complement Shannon Scott. Speaking of Scott, he too had a good performance and should be one of the best guards in the Big Ten as a senior because he can push the pace faster than Aaron Craft.
5. Continuing with the theme of scrimmages, Maryland‘s exhibition win on Saturday night provided more information about what to expect from the Terps in their first Big Ten season. The new-look team shot a whole bunch of perimeter jumpers — making 14 of 27 threes — which could be a consistent theme with this squad. Dez Wells in particular will need to be more consistent offensively if the Terps expect to have any shot of competing for an NCAA Tournament bid this season. He he shot a dismal 30.4 percent from deep last year, but he can do more damage in taking his man off the dribble than merely settling for deep jumpers.

Happy Halloween microsite readers! For those of you in college or otherwise young enough to still enjoy this holiday, you’ve probably put a lot of thought into your costume and are on your way to some great costume party. For the slightly more aged, we have a more ornery disposition and our Halloween plans likely include dimming the lights and hiding from the trick-or-treaters. To those of my ilk, I sympathize with your reclusive ways. My gift to you is this post to read while you’re in the corner trying to shield the light from your tablet. For your enjoyment, I’ll throw out several random thoughts about the conference and declare whether they’ll end up being a trick or treat for Big Ten fans. Let’s begin.

Thank you Maryland fans, forever.

The Big Ten will be the best conference in the country. TRICK. Sorry folks. I’m confident that the league will be in the discussion, but I’m not sure the bottom rung will be successful enough in the non-conference slate to avoid a drag on its overall RPI. Some of the middling teams – Illinois, Indiana and Maryland – have enough uncertainty around their lineups that it’s possible they could slide quickly in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, every team in the Big 12 looks strong, with the notable exception of atrocities like Texas Tech and TCU, and each has a reasonable shot at making the NCAA Tournament. I hope I’m wrong, but if it’s any consolation, I think the Big Ten will best the ACC and their stuffy buttoned-up fans once again. Honestly, who goes to football games dressed like this.

Maryland is joining the league. TREAT. The Terps may not be on the cusp of challenging for Final Fours and National Championships right now, but it’s a storied basketball program with a passionate fan base that should fit into the Big Ten nicely. Program highlights include a more recent National Championship than any other Big Ten school (2002) and well-known alums like Len Elmore, Joe Smith, Steve Francis, Juan Dixon and Steve Blake. Additionally, I’ve been to enough games at the “Comcastle” to know that the Terps will add another great home court experience to the league thanks to their riled up student section. Terrapin fans are also a creative bunch: The world will, for example, always be indebted to them for introducing us to “Scheyerface”. And Maryland fans, if you’re feeling a little anxious about the move to the new conference, like a mid-year transfer student on his first day at a new school, don’t be. Your program is attractive enough where fitting in won’t be a problem, even if you do have a funny accent (it’s “water”, not “wooder”, jeez).

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1. It was always going to be a rough introduction into the Big Ten for Rutgers, given that last year the Scarlet Knights weren’t competitive in a mediocre American Athletic Conference. If they are going to turn things around, the effort will need to be led by one of their senior leaders, Kadeem Jack. So head coach Eddie Jordan must be more than a little concerned that last year’s leading rebounder and second-leading scorer has been unable to practice due to a wrist injury. Jack is expected to be healthy by the first game of the season against George Washington, but Jordan needs to hope that’s the case as his team is going to need all the wins it can get for a shot at a postseason tournament.
2. In East Lansing, Michigan State is also dealing with the injury bug. Tom Izzo’s team will lose freshman Javon Bess for at least a month as he will have surgery on his injured foot. Though not a heralded recruit, he seemed to have already earned some respect from his fellow teammates and coach. Izzo called him a “diamond in the rough” while Denzel Valentine said his loss is “gonna be big [to us].” His injury chips at the Spartans’ depth, something the Spartans would like to have as they make their way through another tough non-conference schedule with opponents like Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas and Notre Dame slated.
3. The season hasn’t even started, but Richard Pitino is already dealing with some off-the-court issues, as Minnesota dismissed junior Zach Lofton on Wednesday with no specific explanation given for his cause for dismissal. The 6’4″ wing had transferred to Minnesota from Illinois State, where he averaged 11.3 PPG and 3.0 RPG last season. His dismissal has no effect with respect to this season, as Lofton would have had to redshirt this year anyway. But it’s certainly not ideal and leaves a hole in Pitino’s lineup for the 2015-16 season that he will need to fill. Not a great start for the Golden Gophers.
4. Earlier in the week, SBNation released its Top 100 players list. Yesterday, CBSSports.com did likewise. One big difference between the two lists was with the ranking of Sam Dekker, who came in at #5 on the latter as opposed to #33 on the former. Another huge difference in ranking was Ohio State’s freshman D’Angelo Russell, who was listed all the way up at #44 on CBS and was left off the list altogether on SBNation. They reached some consensus, however, with Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky and Michigan’s Caris Levert as top 10 players. Finally, while SBNation put 15 B1G players on its list, CBS was more bearish on the conference’s talent with only 11 players. These lists make for fun fodder, but honestly, it’ll be nice just to get through all this and focus on the games.
5. Lastly, Indiana’s Tom Crean is trying to get his Hoosiers squad ready for game shape this week. The Hoosiers lost some key players from last year’s squad, such as Big Ten Freshman of the Year, Noah Vonleh, four-year contributor Will Sheehey, and a bunch of transfers. This lack in continuity is showing as the coach has to impress upon his squad to avoid “defensive fatigue”. While the Hoosiers lost a bunch of talent, they also brought in a quality freshmen class. Crean will need to get his star point guard, Yogi Ferrell, to whip those youngsters in shape if they’re to avoid another disappointing season.

Iowa was in the Top 25 for much of the 2013-14 season, making it as high as a #10 ranking thanks to its impressive 15-3 start. This prosperity did not last, though, as the Hawkeyes closed out the season 5-10, winning only one of their last eight contests. Defensive lapses and a lack of consistency plagued the team throughout this poor stretch, but an overreliance on Roy Devyn Marble to bail the team out offensively also didn’t help. Iowa brings back quite a bit of talent from last season’s first round loser, but the loss of Marble leaves Fran McCaffery searching for a go-to scorer. How does Iowa learn from its previous mistakes and replace one of the best players in the Big Ten? How does it account for the fact that it no longer has a player who used the third most possessions in the league at 27.3 percent, and was fifth in the league in scoring with 17.0 PPG?

Aaron White will have to score more this season for Iowa to offset the loss of Roy Devyn Marble. (Brian Ray/AP)

Marble contributed 12 games last season where he cracked the 20-point plateau, leading or tying for the team lead in scoring 16 times. It’s safe to say that the offense went through him a good chunk of the time, as he proved equally adept at driving to the hoop or shooting from deep. There are now 29.6 percent more shots available given his departure and it would be wise for Aaron White and Jarrod Uthoff to take most of them. White posted the third best offensive rating in the Big Ten among players who used 20 percent of their team’s possessions last season. He shot a whopping 63.1 percent on his two-pointers, getting points around the rim and from the mid-range. He’s also an excellent free throw shooter who has proven over the last two seasons that he can get to and convert from the line, knocking his five free throw attempts down at an 81 percent clip during his junior season.

The question with White is whether he can be as efficient if he has to shoulder a heavier load. Uthoff did most of his damage during non-conference games, but he showed a great deal of potential in some of those early contests. He averaged 10.8 PPG on 56.0 percent shooting from the field before league play, but dropped down to 5.6 PPG on 44.2 percent shooting once conference games started. If Uthoff can channel his early-season success shooting the ball into this year, he could end up surpassing White as the go-to scorer. He gets to the line less than his colleague, but he shoots a similar quality percentage once there (81.7 percent). He’s also shown that he’s a much more dependable shooter from behind the arc (42.5 percent), which is something that White has yet to do.

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College basketball guru Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings a few days ago. These ratings are not your standard preseason website or magazine predictions because they are completely data-driven. To put it simply, Pomeroy is more than likely a great deal smarter than you or me. His tempo-free statistics remove some of the spin and fluff of the season in favor of measurable aspects like efficiency, schedule strength and luck. Uninformed pundits may talk about a team being great defensively because it gives up a very low number of points per game, but it’s wise to also evaluate the same notion through the prism of points per 100 possessions. That team may be great defensively as a matter of fact, but it also might just play at a really slow pace with fewer possessions (and hence, fewer opportunities for the opponent to score). Here are some observations about how the Big Ten fared in Pomeroy’s first list of ratings.

Tom Crean’s Indiana squad starts the season just outside top 25 according to Ken Pomeroy. (AP).

• Indiana Rates More Favorably Here Than With the Media. Pomeroy thinks that the Indiana offense will be much better after it finished 2013-14 ranked 127th in offensive efficiency. He also believes that the Hoosiers’ pace will quicken, from 106.5 points per 100 possessions to 110.9. For this to happen, the Hoosiers will have to cut down on their turnovers. They ranked last in the league in that metric last season, turning the ball over on 21.8 percent of the time. With Yogi Ferrell now having more help on the wings with freshman James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson coming into the program along with transfer Nick Zeisloft, Pomeroy thinks Tom Crean’s unit will be a good deal more efficient on the offensive end. The media picked Indiana ninth in its preseason poll, so it looks as though Pomeroy’s model values the Hoosiers a bit higher than the eye test.

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1. Northwestern surprised many people last season with the transformation it made halfway through conference play, leading to road wins against Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Drew Crawford was the most important player on that team, so it should be shocking to no one that head coach Chris Collins is still trying to figure out how the Wildcats are going to replace him. Two likely candidates are JerShon Cobb and freshman Vic Law. Cobb topped 20 or more points four times as a junior, while Law is one of the most gifted players coming into the program in quite a while. Northwestern has more depth than last season, but whether the Wildcats can collectively replace one of the best players in the Big Ten is worth watching.
2. Purdue received its first Class of 2016 pledge on Tuesday, as Indianapolis Tech point guard CJ Walker chose the Boilermakers over Butler and Cincinnati. Walker won a class 4A championship as a sophomore, where he shot 51 percent from the field and averaged 3.2 assists per game. Walker should join Bryson Scott and fellow Indianapolis native PJ Thompson at the point guard spot for the 2016-17 campaign.
3. Illinois and head coach John Groce have gotten some highly-rated players from Chicago and elsewhere in the state of Illinois. Kendrick Nunn, Jaylon Tate and Malcom Hill are three that come to mind, for example, from his first recruiting class. But one former Illini great thinks that Groce has more work to do. Deon Thomas — the school’s all-time leading scorer and the state’s Mr. Basketball in 1989 from Chicago’s Simeon High School — says that talents like Jahlil Okafor and Cliff Alexander would have stayed home and played for Illinois in the past. He cites AAU culture as a leading factor for Chicago kids choosing to play outside the state. Groce has made some nice headway with in-state kids, but it will take a top-15 type of player from Chicago staying close to home for many Illini fans to truly believe in his recruiting abilities.
4. Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings to the masses on Sunday night and the Big Ten put 13 of its 14 teams among the top 80 in the country. One theme in the ratings is how balanced and equal teams #2 through #11 in the standings could be this season. As an example of how tight things are, Michigan State comes in at second in the league and 12th nationally while Purdue is 11th in the conference but 40th nationally. Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota and Illinois are all ranked between #32-#38 in the nation. The equality of the teams in the middle of the pack makes predicting the Big Ten race largely a guessing game, and the first set of Pomeroy numbers seem to show that, outside of Wisconsin, he feels that the rest of the league is wide open.
5. Tis the season for lists and preseason superlatives, and the Big Ten was well represented in SBNation‘s list of the top 100 college basketball players. Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky (#8) and Michigan’s Caris LeVert (#9) both cracked the top 10 nationally, while Nebraska’s Terran Petteway (#15) and Michigan State’s Branden Dawson (#26) made it into the top 30. All told, 15 B1G players made the cut, which left the league tied for second among power conferences with the Big 12. The SEC had the most players on this list with 16, six of whom play for Kentucky alone. The post also listed 50 more players who just missed the cut, which included Penn State senior guard DJ Newbill and Wisconsin sophomore Nigel Hayes.

Here’s a familiar scene. A heralded freshman joins a veteran-laden team. His older teammates are a bit jaded by all the hype and media attention that their younger counterpart receives, but they’re also intrigued with what the young star can do on the floor. Eventually the team is won over by all the potential embedded in their new teammate, and the season-long process of integration takes its first step. This scene usually takes place with elite freshmen and the blue-chip college programs at which they enroll, but at some level, a similar story also involves a four-star recruit in Evanston, Illinois. Vic Law is not the most talented freshman in the Big Ten this season, but he might be the most important. His ability to succeed may change the trajectory of the perennially bottom-dwelling Northwestern program, head coach Chris Collins’ career, and the future pecking order of the Big Ten.

Vic Law is the most heralded freshman at Northwestern in a long time.

The first thing you need to know about Law is that he doesn’t look like a typical Northwestern basketball player. The Chicago native is a 6’7”, 185 lb. string bean, but he’s remarkably athletic with a versatile game that makes him a threat from both the outside or in the mid-range. In short, he looks like a top-100 prospect. Compare him with several recent Northwestern stars such as Drew Crawford, John Shurna and Kevin Coble, and the gap in their upside becomes even more apparent. No offense to those former players, but they were successful Wildcats as much from their basketball IQ and guile than from their athleticism and talent. During former head coach Bill Carmody’s tenure, that was the formula that successfully got the Wildcats as close to making the NCAA Tournament as they had ever been. But eventually, that approach simply wasn’t able to get over the hump, and a coaching change was made.

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In an earlier post, I argued that Wisconsin’s talent and chemistry made them well-equipped to have another successful season and make a repeat trip to the Final Four. Specifically, the fact that the Badgers return seven of their top eight scorers from last season’s team — including two likely preseason All-Americans in Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker — makes them the Big Ten’s best shot at ending its 15-year championship drought. While that sounds hopeful, the Big Ten has had numerous heralded preseason teams since Michigan State’s championship in 2000, and all of them have failed to cut down the nets on the first Monday in April. So, how do these Badgers stack up against some other recent Big Ten preseason top 5 teams? I decided to investigate.

Wisconsin will be in the AP preseason Top 5, and hopes to be the first Big Ten National Champion since 2000. / Andy Manis

Using several metrics, I compared Wisconsin to seven other Big Ten teams that were ranked in the Top 5 of the preseason AP Poll in the past five years. Most metrics are factors that contribute to a team being highly ranked in the preseason: returning minutes, the previous season’s offensive and defensive performances, the previous season’s finish with respect to conference championships and NCAA Tournament advancement, and the quality of the team’s incoming class (based upon Scout.com’s team rankings). The remaining metrics are the team’s preseason AP poll ranking and their finish with respect to conference championship and the NCAA Tournament in that season. The table below compares each team’s metrics.

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Nebraska essentially came out of nowhere last season, going from a 9-9 start to closing out the season on a 10-4 finish and making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998. Terran Petteway became a household name in the Big Ten and head coach Tim Miles put himself on the map as one of the brightest young coaches in the land. The team brings back most of its roster from last season and has started this year ranked #21 in the USA Today/Coaches Preseason Poll. Will the Cornhuskers drop back to mediocrity with these expectations or will they continue to take leap forward? Here are some arguments for and against each scenario.

Terran Petteway will once again lead a Nebraska team that won’t sneak up on anybody this season. (AP)

Why They Will Be Even Better

Nebraska’s non-conference schedule is more forgiving in some ways than it was last year, but it will give the Cornhuskers several chances to pick up quality wins against teams that could very well be in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskers have rematches against Cincinnati and Creighton at home, and both of those teams look to be down a bit meaning that the home team should have the advantage. Nebraska also plays two true road games against Rhode Island and Florida State. Rhode Island has a really good guard in EC Matthews and Florida State will test them inside with a trio of 7-footers. If they make it through their first nine games with a record of 8-1 or 9-0, they will get tested again in Honolulu’s Diamond Head Classic, where they could play Wichita State in the second round and potentially Colorado in the championship game. Read the rest of this entry »