With nearly half of the ACC docket gone and Miami continuing to cement its hold on an undefeated league record, now is as good a time as any to continue with the bracket talk.

Miami has an outside shot of getting a #1 seed. Who would have expected that after losing to Florida Gulf Coast? (Asheboro Courier-Tribune)

Definitely IN

Duke (19-2, 6-2):  While Duke is not first in the ACC (and has a 27-point defeat to the team currently leading the conference), the Blue Devils would almost assuredly receive the highest seed of any team in the ACC if the season ended today. (A similar margin of defeat for North Carolina last year against a team from Florida did not cost them a #1 seed).  Wins against Louisville, Minnesota, VCU, and Kentucky have definitely lost some of their luster in recent weeks, but Duke is still #1 in the RPI rankings and is now ranked #4 in the national polls. The Blue Devils put together by far their best performance post-Ryan Kelly in their resounding defeat of Florida State over the weekend. While Kelly’s return is still uncertain, talk is that he could return to action around the end of February. Duke gets its first revenge game on Thursday at home against NC State, and a win there against a snake-bitten NC State team would do wonders to increase Duke’s legitimacy without Kelly playing. Duke will obviously hope to have him back at 100% soon, because potentially huge games loom in Duke’s final four conference games (@Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, @UNC). At the moment, Duke would probably be the third or fourth #1 seed, and could possibly gain the overall #1 seed by running the table, or could fall to a #2 seed if they drop two or three more games in league play depending on what happens in the Big Ten, with middling scenarios (one or two additional conference losses and an ACC Tournament championship) likely keeping them about where they are now.

• Seed projection:  #1 (now), could fall to a #2
• Best wins:  Louisville (neutral), Ohio State, VCU, Kentucky (neutral), Minnesota (neutral)
• Worst losses: @Miami (just by the sheer margin)

Miami (17-3, 8-0):  The Hurricanes may be the hottest team in America right now, having won nine games in a row. Their victory on Reggie Johnson’s last second tip-in in Raleigh on Saturday made Miami the heavy favorite to win the ACC’s regular season title, as they hold a two-game lead over the closest opposition, Duke, whom they have already defeated by 27 points. The Hurricanes are also ranked #2 in the RPI (behind only Duke), so all of the computer numbers are going to bat for them, and they have also risen into the top 10 in the AP poll. Miami’s only truly difficult conference game left is against Duke in Cameron, but aside from that, they should be favored in every game and the conference right now is clearly theirs to lose. Miami has a great case for a 2 seed right now with its RPI and resounding defeat of Duke, which could be the most impressive feather in the cap for any team this season. If they run the table in the ACC, they will get a #1 seed, and if they finish 16-2 or 17-1, their chances of a #1 seed are still pretty good, especially if they also win the ACC Tournament. The game against Duke could be a battle for top seed and would put the winner in the driver’s seat headed into the ACC Tournament.

• Read the rest of this entry »

1. Tar Heel Blog: Here are a few things you’ll learn from looking at an in-depth breakdown of ACC tempo-free stats halfway through the conference season. First and foremost, Miami is really good at defense (as T.H. points out, the Hurricanes are holding opponents to a worse field goal percentage than any of Duke’s teams since 2000 and are rebounding opponents’ misses at a rate higher than any of Roy Williams’ teams the last 10 years). Second, there are three and a half good offensive teams in the ACC (Boston College gets a half because it’s markedly below the top three). Third, NC State is hitting an insane 41.4% of its three point attempts, but shooting fewer threes than anyone in the league!
2. Charlotte Observer: Want to read an article written from the Big 12 perspective on the ominous future some see behind the reported Big 12 – ACC “alliance?” It’s amazing how different perspectives are on conference realignment depending on where you’re living. The ACC media has essentially called realignment dead, hoping Louisville’s addition saves enough face with the football schools to keep everyone happy. But this article paints a picture of a Big 12 itching to get a hold of Florida State and another school (Jimmy Burch mentions Miami, which seems dumb; I’d guess Clemson or Louisville) in order to host a conference championship game. I still think both conferences like where they’re currently at, but Burch is right that the playoff could put pressure on the Big 12 to add members, which would certainly make things more interesting.
3. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State, despite the class years listed on the team’s roster, is still a very young team. Specifically, the team misses two players from last year. Luke Loucks never got enough credit for his leadership (or high level of play) last season. Michael Snaer hit all the big shots, but Loucks made everything go. Bernard James is the other player, just as a consistent defensive and rebounding presence. This year’s team still needs that cohesion. The talent is there (though it may not be developed yet), but Brendan Bures hits the nail on the head in saying that the Seminoles still need to find an identity or “a calling card.”
4. Columbus Ledger-Enquirer: Georgia Tech’s front line isn’t getting enough press this season. Daniel Miller deserves any and all “most improved” accolades this season (sorry Richard Howell, last year was your big leap), as the junior looks like a totally different player. He’s much more aggressive and appears to be more athletic, albeit slightly; Robert Carter Jr. will eventually be a premier big man in the ACC (once he cuts out the baby fat); and Kammeon Holsey — despite his horrendously hatched post-game — is aggressive and effective off the bench.
5. NC State Technician: Before getting to the point of the article, is Herb Sendek a much more successful Jeff Bzdelik? Probably not, but there’s a similarity in how both failed miserably in handling themselves publicly (both appear detached and robotic). But Mark Gottfried is in an interesting situation. I don’t necessarily think he’s walking a fine line between hating losing or maintaining excitement (those run hand-in-hand). It’s more that he’s got a young team (with its experience with success), and he needs to make sure the team doesn’t get overwhelmed by negativity or its ego. If NC State dips below .500 in conference play (i.e., the Wolfpack lose to Duke and Clemson), it’s going to be very difficult to keep the team’s motivation up the rest of the season.

Jimmy Kelley is an ACC correspondent for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @DevilsinDurham.

The Associated Press has released two editions of their Top 25 since Miami dismantled Duke back on January 23. and all they’ve done since is continue rolling over ACC competition including a huge road win in Raleigh over N.C. State on Sunday. Yet for some reason the Hurricanes can’t seem to leapfrog the Blue Devils in the poll. Are the voters still holding early-season losses against them? Are Duke’s three top-five wins from the first month of the season still holding up? Both are legitimate questions, but what shouldn’t be up for debate is that Miami is the best team in the ACC right now and are probably going to take the regular season conference title.

Miami crushed Duke, 90-63, earlier in ACC play but still find themselves ranked below the Blue Devils. (AP Photo)

This is the part where all of the “the polls don’t matter” comments come in to play and, while that may be true, Miami has done everything in its power to prove it has a better team than Duke. Has that been true all season? Absolutely not. But it has been true over the past couple of weeks. While Miami has beaten Florida State (71-47), Virginia Tech (73-64) and N.C. State (79-78); Duke has beaten Maryland convincingly (84-64), Wake Forest in a close win (75-70), and Florida State with a perfectly played game (79-60). With one common opponent in Florida State, the comparison can be easily made with the Hurricanes getting the slight edge.

Read the rest of this entry »

The marquee match-up between North Carolina State and Miami gave the conference-leading Hurricanes a little more separation as they remain on top of the conference heap, still undefeated in Atlantic Coast Conference play. Below them? Well it’s a heap of something.

Reggie Johnson’s Massive Tip-In Helped the Hurricanes Stay Unbeaten in ACC Play

1. Virginia is Third in the ACC Standings. I wouldn’t have been able to guess that, despite following the conference with a feverish intensity. Last night they lost to lowly Georgia Tech, and now Virginia sits at 5-3 (along with a North Carolina team that Virginia beat). In addition to the Yellow Jackets, the other two conference teams to hand the Wahoos losses are Clemson and Wake Forest. What is going on? The Cavaliers are a shining example of this season’s remarkable home court advantage in conference play. Virginia has won all of its home games and lost all but one of its road games (against Virginia Tech). The home team has won a stunning 70% of games this season. On top of that, Ken Pomeroy has Virginia spotted as having the easiest league schedule in the ACC. In more concrete terms: It’s easy to have a good record when you have yet to play a single road game against a team with a winning record in conference play.
2. Boston College Is A Bad Team With A Good Offense. In conference play, Boston College trails behind only Duke, NC State, and Miami in terms of offensive efficiency. This isn’t surprising if you watched the game against Clemson: BC shot 57.8% from the field and 55% from beyond the arc, highlighted by freshman Joe Rahon draining 6-of-7 threes, giving his team the win. Still, make no mistake: This team is so bad defensively that it more than offsets the sterling offensive performances that the Eagles have been turning in. Duke leads the conference in offensive efficiency with a mark at 110.0. The second best offensive team in the conference? Whoever is playing Boston College. The average offensive efficiency of BC opponents in conference play is 108.5. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Duke Basketball Report: This is a phenomenal article from Al Featherston, looking back at Duke winning number 1,000 nearly four decades ago. The article also includes two of the biggest ACC “What ifs?” ever:
   1. What if Lefty Driesell was given the Duke job?
   2. What if Adolph Rupp had taken over for Duke in the mid-1970’s?

   The first question is fascinating. Driesell built Maryland, but Duke already had a history of success (only five teams beat the Blue Devils to the 1,000 win mark). Could he have taken the Blue Devils to similar heights (and lows)? Just how different would Duke’s program be today if the (aptly described) “mercurial” Driesell ushered in the modern era instead of Coach K. Also, what would have happened to Mike Krzyzewski? Similar butterfly effects happen if Rupp takes over. The article also has historical anecdotes about the dominance of the Durham YMCA in the 1920’s. Seriously, give it a read.

2. ESPN: Well, the inevitable has arrived. Despite not receiving bids from Madison Square Garden or the Barclays Center in New York City, “because of the league’s changing membership,” those two arenas will still be in the running for the 2016-2021 ACC Tournaments. The move makes sense, but it has the potential to be a major flop too. The atmosphere at the ACC Tournament the past few years hasn’t been the same. The declining excitement is largely thanks to an increase in noncompetitive teams, the addition of Thursday and an expanding geographic footprint. Moving the tournament to New York could exacerbate the issues if the league continues to aim for a balanced allotment of tickets.
3. ACC Sports Journal: The ACC is slowly rebuilding. Almost all programs appear to be moving in the right direction, though there are still plenty of questions surrounding almost all of the new coaches: Can Jim Larranaga and Steve Donahue recruit at the ACC level consistently? Can Brian Gregory and Brad Brownell break through to the next level? And can Jeff Bzdelik and Donahue pull their teams out of the cellar? The next couple of seasons are critical to the success of the ACC going forward because coaching stability is a huge factor in sustained success.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: NC State took a gut-punch against Miami without junior guard Lorenzo Brown. The Wolfpack controlled for most of the game, but a late Miami run and some costly errors from CJ Leslie (missed foul shots, turnovers, and dumb fouls) gave the Hurricanes the chance to win. But two stories more important than Reggie Johnson‘s buzzer-beating tip are starting to show through the game. For one, Miami is a solid two games ahead of Duke in the loss column (everyone else has three or more losses). That’s a very, very good place to be going into the second half of conference play. Second, Tyler Lewis finally started showing why he was a McDonald’s All-American. Lewis ran NC State’s offense very well against the best defense in the ACC, and he didn’t look nearly as lost on defense. He still needs some work, but developing Lewis is crucial in the long run.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia Tech was a different team Sunday than the one that got smacked in Charlottesville (to be fair the home-road splits are looking fairly dramatic for Virginia too). The Yellow Jackets looked like they might be due for a repeat of their last game with the Cavaliers as they went into the half down by nine. Brian Gregory said after the loss that his team needed to learn how to finish. Well, the second time around they did just that. Georgia Tech held Virginia to six points in the final 9:40 of the game. The Yellow Jackets were the first ACC team to drop 60 on Virginia. Good luck ranking the middle and bottom of the ACC this season. It’s a train-wreck, though it’s a train-wreck played at a higher level than last year.

It’s a simple problem for paranoid sports fans everywhere: It’s hard to listen to commentators who clearly have it out for your team. In college basketball, among the most tribal of sports, few broadcast commentators are exempt from charges of bias or partisanship. Ignoring the issue of whether or not this is true, it is perceived to be true and therefore it is a problem for many fans. The solution to the problem of objectionable commentators has a fairly simple well-known fix: Mute the TV and put on the radio (or Internet-streaming equivalent), where you can listen to partisans who like your team as much as you do. Of course, this simple solution has it’s own simple problem: syncing the audio and video.

Vitale Not Doing It For Ya? No Problem…

Now that you’ve decoupled the two media sources, the sound doesn’t match up with the audio and getting the two to synchronize has been something of a struggle. So, for a student project, some North Carolina students wrote an application with the express purpose of making this problem simple to resolve. Now, listening to objectionable commentators is even less of an obstacle to partisan sports fans. This is a good thing for the hyper-sensitive who can’t bear to hear anyone say something critical about their team.

Read the rest of this entry »

Julius Randle is currently being pursued by NC State. He’s a 6’9″ power forward ranked second by Rivals, fourth by ESPN.com and fifth by Scout. With Richard Howell departing after this season (and CJ Leslie potentially joining him), Randle would be a huge get for head coach Mark Gottfried. Randle took his official visit to Raleigh to watch NC State knock off rival North Carolina for ESPN Gameday last weekend, and by his account it was a huge success.

Julius Randle loved his trip to Raleigh. (photo credit: Kye R. Lee / Dallas Morning News)

Right off the bat, Randle went and saw a nearly life-sized wall mural a Wolfpack fan had painted for him. He got a chance to hang with students Friday night and then absorbed the PNC Arena atmosphere for the big game. He used the word “loud” (or “loudest”) five times describing the fans. But then comes the part Wolfpack fans will love:

I think the biggest thing I learned over the weekend was that if I came there they wouldn’t have to change anything about their system for me. It just fits me. Other coaches talk about what they’ll change for me, but with State they don’t have to do that. That’s big. All in all, I’d have to say that this was my best visit so far. I had a ball at Kentucky, and yeah they had Drake and everything, but this visit just had a lot more going on.

When you go toe-to-toe with John Calipari in recruiting and come out with an advantage, you’ve done something right. NC State’s visit reduced Randle’s Kentucky visit to “yeah they had Drake and everything.” It definitely helped that there was a real game to attend and a rivalry one at that, but that’s still impressive. Now you definitely have to take blogs like these with a grain of salt: What high school kid wouldn’t love an official visit with the VIP treatment? That said, it sounds like Randle really bought into Gottfried’s system and the environment in Raleigh.

We won’t know anything for sure until Randle makes a final decision, but his blog certainly gives some first-hand insight into how Gottfried has succeeded so quickly on the recruiting trail.

Jimmy Kelley is an ACC correspondent for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @DevilsinDurham

The ACC Player of the Year award is, just as with every conference’s top award, an honor that has different meaning depending on whom you ask. Some would define it as the most outstanding player in the conference during the season. For others, the award should go to the player who was the most indispensable and without whom his team would have fallen well short of where it finished. Going even deeper down the rabbit hole, some believe that a player who makes a bad team competitive isn’t as “valuable” as the best player on the best team in the league. I trend towards the second definition with a bit of the third mixed in, settling on the award going to the most indispensable player on one of the league’s top teams. Using this criteria, Duke‘s Mason Plumlee has made one of the strongest cases in the league.

Mason Plumlee scored a career-high 32 points with 9 rebounds on Wednesday against Wake Forest. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

On Wednesday night, Duke escaped Wake Forest with a 75-70 win on the back of a career-high 32 points from Plumlee. On a night where Duke shot 2-of-14 from three-point range and turned the ball over more than they are accustomed to, the Blue Devils got a good win because of Plumlee’s ability to come through time after time. Without Ryan Kelly in the lineup, Duke has had to rely on Plumlee more on both ends of the court and while it took some growing into, the senior finally looks like the same player who was on pace to do things the ACC hasn’t seen since Tim Duncan averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. [Ed. Note: We are not trying to suggest that Plumlee is even close to the player Duncan was in college so save the angry comments and tweets.]

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Orlando Sentinel: Florida State‘s defense isn’t nearly what it has been the last few years. The biggest issues are that opponents are grabbing way too many rebounds and hitting more interior shots. A lot of this is because Kiel Turpin never really developed into a Bernard James or Solomon Alabi. The Seminoles have never been a great rebounding team — largely because the strength of Hamilton’s defensive strategy lies in locking down the paint and blocking shots — but this year’s team is exceptionally bad (apart from Terrance Shannon, who’s injured). That said, Boris Bojanovsky and Michael Ojo are going to be players eventually. Bojanovsky is one of my favorite freshmen in the league this season. He’s got great footwork and decent touch for a seven-footer. Ojo is mammoth. If he can learn to control his body, he’ll be an unstoppable force.
2. Wilmington Star News: Experience is a funny word. Sometimes it’s easy to spot (or not spot) like with Wake Forest this year or Boston College last year. Other times it’s harder to see. For instance, this year’s Florida State team has a number of years under its belt, but not crunch-time minutes (other than Michael Snaer, who was born for it). This year’s Miami team obviously has it. But depending on who you talk to (and the most recent results), teams like Duke have and don’t have experience. The Blue Devils have three seniors at its core, but right now the team also starts two freshmen and a sophomore. That’s one big difference between Duke with Ryan Kelly and Duke without him — his experience means a lot. Eventually Amile Jefferson will likely become a better basketball player than Kelly, but right now Jefferson commits dumb fouls and lacks much strength. Kelly’s not exactly Hercules himself, but he knows his strengths and forces opponents to play to them. That’s a huge asset.
3. Washington Post: Here’s another important example of experience. Alex Len is much better this year than last year, but he still disappears far too much for a player of his talent (on a team that struggles just as much). He’s a bit like a smoother and more skilled version of Mason Plumlee in his sophomore season. When Plumlee was fed in a position to score, he did well; when he wasn’t, he didn’t. Plumlee compounded his disappearance with dumb fouls and turnovers (he was, and is in many ways, much more limited offensively than Len), but experience has made him a player who demands the ball. That’s what Turgeon desperately needs from his star center the rest of the way.
4. Orange and White: KJ McDaniels looks like Brad Brownell’s player of the future. Every year Brownell relies on two very good upperclassmen as he grooms a junior for the role moving forward. First it was Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant; last year it was Andre Young and Tanner Smith; this year it’s Devin Booker and Milton Jennings (sometimes). Unfortunately for Brownell, all six of those players were seniors. McDaniels, a sophomore, may finally give Brownell the breathing room he needs. McDaniels is good for at least one jaw-dropping dunk a game, but he’s slow in finding his place on the perimeter. If he can nail down a consistent jumper, look out.
5. The ACC: The ACC announced the 2013 basketball ACC Legends. This year’s class was led by Gary Williams (whom the ACC honored just in time). Other administrative figures included Gene Corrigan and former Wake Forest coach Carl Tracy. Corrigan in addition to serving as ACC commissioner for a decade also served as the NCAA’s president for a couple of years. Player highlights from the class include Duke’s Trajan Langdon (the Alaskan Assassin), Georgia Tech’s Mark Price (who was Bobby Cremins’ best player when he turned the Yellow Jackets around in the early 1980s), and Derek Whittenburg (the NC State guard who missed the shot that led to the dunk to win the national championship in 1983).

1. Yahoo! Sports: Here are some fun facts about Shane Larkin. He stopped playing baseball after his little league manager told him, “Whoever taught you to hit didn’t know what he was talking about” (his dad, Barry Larkin, is a Hall of Fame baseball player). Also, at one point in his high school career Jeff Bzdelik was pursuing Larkin pretty hard and Larkin seemed pretty interested. Bzdelik never offered. Now Larkin is a top-three point guard in the ACC (Erick Green, then he and Quinn Cook seem pretty comparable). But Larkin’s development is one of the better stories in the ACC this season. He was an exciting player last year, but made as many stupid plays as jaw-dropping ones. This year, he’s much more in control and Miami’s a better team for it.
2. Washington Post: Before Michael Snaer’s game-winning dagger last night (see #5, below), Mark Turgeon said Maryland‘s loss to Florida State earlier in the season “probably was the toughest.” My guess is that buzzer-beater didn’t help. The Florida State loss was when Maryland started to slip (or the competition exposed the Terrapins). Maryland was in control most of that game, leading by eight points twice (the second time coming with less than seven minutes to play in the game). But both times it looked like Maryland might stretch things out before the Seminoles came clawing back.
3. Charleston Post and Courier: Like most of his career, Milton Jennings has been very inconsistent this season. Some days he’s the star of the show. Others he might as well not exist. Travis Sawchik noticed that one determining factor in Jennings’ performance is whether he’s playing at home or on the road. At Littlejohn Coliseum Jennings is shooting nearly 60% from the floor and is good for over 13 points a game. On the road? He’s shooting an abysmal 23% from the floor and is averaging six points a game. Jennings feeds off positive energy, and the crowd at Clemson gives him energy. The crowds on the road makes him tentative. Brad Brownell’s team would benefit a lot if Jennings could become more consistent. He’s the team’s second best player, and it desperately needs him on the road.
4. Duke Chronicle: This is the best article I’ve seen on Seth Curry‘s injury this year. It’s old news that Curry misses a significant number of Duke’s practices, but I hadn’t read that he “can’t really jump off [his] right leg” or that Tyler Thornton’s job in practice is to emulate Curry (which might explain some of Thornton’s threes). It’s got to be tough for Duke — not to mention Curry — as the team has changed it’s offense pretty significantly since Ryan Kelly went down with his injury.
5. Tomahawk Nation (video via NBC Sports): So Michael Snaer hit another buzzer-beater — his second this week, fourth in ACC play. This time Snaer stole a win from Maryland. However the biggest news for Florida State fans is the matter of turnovers. Miscues have killed the Seminoles the past few years, but they only gave the ball up six times (less than 10% of possessions) against Maryland. That’s what kept them close enough so that Snaer’s late-game heroics could do the rest. An injured Ian Miller (who, similar to Seth Curry, isn’t practicing) was very productive, even engineering the final play with his drive and kick to Snaer. The moral of this story: Florida State isn’t dead yet. The Seminoles still need to steal a win or two against Duke, NC State or Miami and have a strong showing in the conference tourney, but there’s hope.