Remember when there was talk of Indiana as a Final Four-caliber team? And that Wisconsin wouldn’t even have a chance at dancing its way to New Orleans because there was an outside chance the Badgers would miss the NCAA Tournament? In calendar terms, those days aren’t that far behind us. But in basketball days, they seem light years away. In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately society, we tend to get really, really excited about the here and now. Wisconsin loses a string of three games with a couple rare losses at home mixed in, and pundits are wondering what the heck has gone wrong in Madison. Indiana sends shock waves across basketball with a few early-season major upsets and lights up the first half of its schedule, and there seemed to be no limit to what the Hoosiers could do.

Cody Zeller and the young Hoosiers have struggled on the road this year. (Andy Lyons/Getty)

Well, about a month after Indiana was 15-1 and Wisconsin dropped three in a row, both clubs have returned to their mean. That is to say, both clubs have either regressed or progressed to just about where we expected them to be at season’s tipoff. Indiana has taken a tremendous step forward under Tom Crean and is showing signs that it will be contending for Big Ten titles soon enough. The Hoosiers are an NCAA Tournament team. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is back to competing for Big Ten championships, frustrating opponents (particularly at the Kohl Center), and dictating pace in the Big Ten.

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We’re just over halfway through the Big Ten conference season and are rapidly approaching probably the biggest weekend of the slate, and likely the biggest single game to date. We’ve got a couple huge rivalry games on tap and a chance for a shift in power at the top of the standings.

Michigan State and Michigan get set for a rivalry rematch this weekend. (K. Dozier/DFP)

Here’s a look at a few of the weekend’s biggest Big Ten matchups.

#4 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2 PM on Saturday

• Without question, the Buckeyes were the favorite to win the conference this season, and perhaps by a wide margin. But they’ve been brought down to earth twice already during their Big Ten slate — at Indiana and at Illinois. Will their trip to Madison result in another mis-step? Or will Wisconsin, which already has mounted two rare home defeats, fall again on its home floor? The Buckeyes have proven to be the toast of the conference and a likely Final Four participant, while Wisconsin has re-emerged as a conference title contender. All that said, this should be a tremendous defensive game to watch. Both teams have potent offenses — though different in style — but the game should be won on the defensive end, as these two groups enter with the top two scoring defenses in the conference.  Individually, the backcourt matchup between Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor and Ohio State’s Aaron Craft should be a real treat.

1. Tom Izzo‘s affinity for football is well documented — he’s always joked about coaching football, even at Michigan State, and his best friend is former NFL head coach Steve Mariucci — but apparently his passion for other sports extends into the boxing ring, as well. James Dundee, the son of Angelo Dundee, who was Muhammad Ali‘s trainer that died Wednesday at the age of 90, said Angelo and Izzo met once. The two Italians hit it off so well that Angelo never missed a Michigan State game from then on. “He was sitting there saying, ‘That’s my man I-Zo,'” James Dundee said when he happened on his father watching the Spartans on Tuesday. “Once he met Izzo, Dad never missed another Michigan State game.”
2. If Bill Carmody is concerned about John Shurna‘s minutes, he has a funny way of showing it. The Wildcats played just six men in their 84-74 win against Nebraska on Thursday night, and Shurna played all 40 minutes in the game. Entering Thursday, the senior was averaging 39.2 minutes per Big Ten game, most amongst his conference counterparts. It was Northwestern‘s first win since a January 14 upset of Michigan State when, ironically, the Wildcats got double-digit scoring from four different players.
3. We’re 23 games into Indiana‘s season and the Indianapolis Star‘s Terry Hutchens still doesn’t really know what to make of this squad. The Hoosiers started the season 12-0 and 15-1 overall, leading many to believe that this team was peaking well ahead of time. Now they’ve fallen back down to earth and haven’t been able to win on the road, so some people are starting to talk about them as an NIT team. Hutchens says they’re more than likely NCAA Tournament-bound but, when such inconsistency is at play, it’s really too hard to make a reliable prediction.
4. Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers will have another chance to finally get a road win — the Hoosiers are 0-31 under Tom Crean in Big Ten games against everyone but Penn State — in an important in-state rivalry game on Saturday at Purdue. The two schools began playing each other in 1901, and there have been some remarkable shifts in power along the way. In the last few years, Tom Crean has struggled while trying to rebuild the IU program as Purdue has thrived under Matt Painter. This season, the time seems to have turned (Indiana is 17-5 and Purdue 15-7), but you can usually throw all of that out the window in a rivalry game like this one.
5. Ohio State has had absolutely no shortage of talented freshmen under Thad Matta. Is LaQuinton Ross next? The freshman was an ESPNU Top 75 recruit out of high school, but hasn’t had the opportunity to contribute immediately as players like Greg Oden or Jared Sullinger have under Matta. “I’m still part of a great team that has a chance to win the national title,” Ross told the Columbus Dispatch. “I’ve just got to be ready at all times because you never know when Coach Matta might call my number.” Matta has called Ross’ number in five of the Buckeyes’ nine Big Ten games  (he didn’t play at all during the non-conference slate) and, though he has never played more than seven minutes a game, he has scored in each of the last two games he’s appeared in.

Continuing with our midway point theme from yesterday, it’s time to take a closer look at who — if the season ended right now — should be taking home some hardware.

The most interesting (and often important) thing about examining All-Big Ten and conference Player of the Year candidates is what they’ve been able to do over the course of the season versus what they’ve done in Big Ten play. It’s not that hard to pull in a double-double against a cupcake non-conference opponent, but you have to be able to do it against Big Ten competition to merit lofty mention.

All-Big Ten First Team

• Tim Frazier, Penn State: Frazier has really burst onto the scene in conference play. After averaging just 5.0 and 6.3 points per game in his first two seasons at PSU, he’s averaging 18 per game this year. He hasn’t scored fewer than 12 points in a Big Ten game this season.
• Draymond Green, Michigan State: Green is the most versatile player in the Big Ten and will go down as one of the few best captains Tom Izzo has had at Michigan State. He currently ranks in the top 15 among Big Ten players in nine categories, while leading in rebounding (10.3 RPG) and coming in 10th in scoring (14.9 PPG).

Draymond Green has been fantastic leading the Spartans this year. (Al Goldis/AP)

1. Both Purdue and Michigan have been trying some lineup experiments over the last few days, and one team is seeing immediate benefits while the other may still be trying to work out the kinks. The Wolverines are now 3-2 with senior guard Stu Douglass in the starting lineup after beating Indiana on Wednesday night, and sophomore forward Evan Smotrycz starting on the bench. Purdue, meanwhile, is a perfect 1-0 with a smaller lineup that features basically Robbie Hummel and four guards. The new-look Boilermakers will surely be tested this weekend against Indiana’s Cody Zeller down low.
2. Jordan Taylor receives a bulk of the credit when it comes to Wisconsin‘s backcourt — and rightfully so — but Taylor knows fully well that he wouldn’t have his level of success without a lesser-known Badger: George Marshall. The freshman, a redshirt this season, has been instrumental on the scout team, writes Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal, particularly in imitating opposing teams’ best backcourt player. This week, that meant Penn State’s Tim Frazier. Marshall must have done his job well, as the Badgers rattled off their sixth straight win with a victory against the Nittany Lions.
3. Nebraska coach Doc Sadler has a simple explanation for why his club’s free throw percentage is at 75%, considerably higher than the average of 69.1% in his first five seasons. “The right guys are getting fouled, I guess,” he told the Omaha World-Herald. Nebraska leads the conference in free throw shooting and is 21st in the country in that statistic. The Huskers only have three Big Ten wins to their credit, but if they keep up that performance from the charity stripe, it could help account for a few more.
4. Michigan State fans are surely thrilled with the news that senior Draymond Green‘s knee injury does not appear to be serious and that he could practice this week before a big Sunday showdown against Michigan. Green tweaked his left knee in the final minutes of Tuesday night’s loss to Illinois and did not return to the game. The versatile forward is averaging 14.9 points, 10.3 rebounds (tops in the conference), 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game this season for the Spartans.
5. Minnesota, which is capitalizing on every spark it can find as the Golden Gophers try to bounce back from a discouraging Big Ten start, is relying heavily on the burst of Chip Armelin. “He’s one of our worst three-point shooters, but now since we’ve been playing in the Big Ten he’s been one of our better three-point shooters and he’s got a lot of confidence,” coach Tubby Smith said of the sophomore, who had six points and four rebounds Wednesday against Iowa.

We’re halfway home in Big Ten conference play and it’s easy to argue that the conference race is no more sorted out now than it was on day one. But we can still take a good, hard look at how teams have performed and what we can reasonably expect from them the rest of the way. Here’s our midseason team evaluations, grading each squad on its overall performance through the non-conference slate and first half of Big Ten play. We also have offer a best- and worst-case scenario for each club the rest of the way, as well as a more reasonable expectation.

Illinois (16-6 overall, 5-4 Big Ten)

• Overall Grade: B
• Worst-case scenario: Illinois beats Northwestern this week, but wins just three more games the rest of the way (at Nebraska, against Purdue and against Iowa).
• Best-case scenario: The Fighting Illini maintain homecourt advantage the rest of way, handling Purdue and Michigan and stealing back-to-back road wins in Ann Arbor and Bloomington to pad their resume.
• Reasonable expectation: With trips to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin remaining, the Illini have an uphill climb ahead of them. And that’s not good news for Bruce Weber.

Indiana (17-5 overall, 5-5 Big Ten)

Crean Has Indiana Looking Up But He Needs Some Road Wins

• Overall Grade: B+
• Worst-case scenario: The Hoosiers continue to struggle on the road, and lose at Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota. Sprinkle a home loss to Michigan State in there, and they finish with a 9-9 conference record. The Goodwill stores in Bloomington are overwhelmed with once-trendy “We’re Baaaaack” t-shirts.
• Best-case scenario: Cody Zeller finds the mojo he was working with early in the season, and leads the Hoosiers to the Sweet Sixteen as Tom Crean is named Big Ten Coach of the Year.
• Reasonable expectation: The Hoosiers are not the Top 10 team many thought they suddenly were early on, but they can do enough to get into the NCAA Tournament and solidify an overachieving season.

Iowa (11-11 overall, 3-6 Big Ten)

• Overall Grade: C+
• Worst-case scenario: The Hawkeyes split meetings against Penn State and Northwestern, lose at Nebraska and are blown out by Indiana and Wisconsin at home.
• Best-case scenario: Iowa picks up the pace against some of the weakest competition in the league, and goes 5-4 the rest of the way.
• Reasonable expectation: Most of the heavy lifting is out of the way, but Iowa will hover around .500 the rest of the season.

1. There may be no team in the conference that ebbs and flows with its star the way Michigan State does with Draymond Green, and Spartan fans can not be feeling great about what they saw late Tuesday night. Not only did the Spartans drop a close one in Champaign, but they also lost Green indefinitely. It seems the senior do-everything forward injured his left knee in the final four minutes of the game (he did not return) though he made it seem afterward like he’d be OK. With a critical game against rival Michigan coming up this weekend and plenty on the line in the conference, Michigan State better hope so.
2. It’s been common knowledge that the Big Ten is the nation’s best conference this year, and with the release of the NCAA’s “Nitty-Gritty” report that the selection committee uses for the NCAA Tournament, it’s pretty well confirmed. Entering play Tuesday, the conference had two teams in the top six for RPI (Michigan State at #4 and Ohio State at #6) and five in the Top 25 overall (Michigan at #19, Indiana at #24 and Wisconsin at #25). No other conference had as many teams ranked (the same goes for the AP Top 25).
3. “Ohio State” and “bench production” are not two things you often see in the same sentence recently, unless it’s in reference to the lack thereof. But as nine Buckeyes played in this weekend’s win against Michigan, it’s clear that Thad Matta is starting to feel more comfortable going to his bench. It’s been a concern in years past that the Buckeyes have relied too heavily on their starting five. Matta still has five players averaging over 22 minutes each game, but it’s a transition from last year, when all five starters logged at least 29 minutes per game.
4. Wisconsin has a reputation for grinding out the shot clock and milking possessions, resulting in low-scoring games that cause opponents fits and requiring patience and efficiency. But the Badgers say a bit more aggressiveness on the offensive end lately has resulted in their spurt back toward the top of the conference standings.
5. Are the Fighting Illini going to dance? At this point, shouldn’t the question be about how well they can dance, whether they can dance at all? With wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, it seem Illinois is well on its way to another NCAA Tournament bid. Granted, Bruce Weber‘s group still has a tough slate ahead. But just how much damage can this group do the rest of the way? Wait and see.