This is the latest edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 11.

Current Standings

While Virginia maintains a clear lead in both the standings, and in points per possession margin (PPM), there was some shuffling right behind the Cavaliers last week. Almost entirely due to Duke’s 30-point rout of Notre Dame, the Blue Devils jumped to the top of the second tier and the Irish fell to such an extent that they now are closer to N.C. State and Syracuse than they are to the top four schools. We will examine in more detail below just how Notre Dame has achieved such a lofty 10-3 record despite a rather pedestrian PPM. Of course, Georgia Tech is the polar opposite of the Irish, as the Yellow Jackets own a better PPM than four teams above them in the standings.

Unlike the last few weeks, there are no match-ups involving two of the ACC’s five elite teams on the schedule this weekend. But we still have a few games of high interest on Saturday, led by Duke’s visit to Syracuse (6:00 PM ET – ESPN), probably viewed by the Orange as this season’s Super Bowl with no postseason play on the horizon. There are also two games featuring top tier schools against teams that are desperate for signature wins, as North Carolina makes its first ACC trip to Pittsburgh (Noon ET – ACCN) and N.C. State travels to Louisville (4:00 PM ET – ESPN). Those two games are absolutely crucial for the shaky NCAA hopes of the Panthers and the Wolfpack.

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Like many talented freshmen, Duke forward Justise Winslow has experienced some ups and downs in his rookie campaign. He started the year with a flurry of impressive games, scoring at least 14 points in each of the first five games of the season. After that came a less productive three-game stretch in which Winslow scored seven points or fewer each time out. Things then seemed to level off going into January, as he started ACC play strong before hitting the freshman wall and the entering a mini-slump. It now appears that slump is over, as Winslow has returned to playing well and aggressively, giving the Blue Devils a much-needed boost on both ends of the floor.

Winslow attacks the basket in Duke’s blowout win over Notre Dame. (Bernard Thomas/The Herald-Sun)

In last Saturday’s 90-60 rout over Notre Dame, Winslow was often the best player on the floor. Duke’s 81 percent shooting was the story of the first half — including a sizzling 7-of-8 performance from three — and Jahlil Okafor was the story of the second half, as the star big man finished with 20 points and 10 rebounds. Winslow, however, was consistently good all afternoon, scoring 19 points, grabbing 11 boards, and recording two blocks — one of which was quite impressive. Mike Krzyzewski is both aware and appreciative of the recently improved play of his third star rookie, who has now recorded double-figure rebounds in three of his last four outings. In the postgame, Krzyzewski said, “Justise [Winslow] has just played so well. He has really learned to play through his injuries. That’s the sign of a guy [who is] really growing up and becoming an outstanding player. You’ve got to play a little bit sore without talking about it and that is what he is doing.”

Monday night’s game at Florida State was not nearly as productive for Winslow, but he still found ways to help his team hang on for a tough road ACC win. After missing his first five field goal attempts, he hit an important three with just under seven minutes left to give the Blue Devils some breathing room. He also got to the foul line frequently, where he made 7-of-10 attempts that resulted in double-figure points for the fifth straight contest. The chart below shows just how dramatically different Winslow’s production has been before, during, and after hitting the “wall” in conference play.

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1. Deadspin and Sports Illustrated: The great stories about the life of Dean Smith just continue to come off the press. Deadspin this week reprinted a profile of the North Carolina legend from a 1982 edition of Inside Sports, and it may do a better job describing Smith the competitor than anything written about him in the last 20 years. Sports Illustrated, on the other hand, got some of its senior writers together (many with connections to North Carolina) to share a bunch of short, personal stories. Most of the the pieces linked to so far have been about Smith’s legacy and accomplishments, but these stories do a better job in painting the mosaic of a complex human being.
2. Washington Post: Here’s some good news and bad news for Virginia. The good news is that the Cavaliers managed to get past the brutal part of their schedule with only one loss. The bad news is that Justin Anderson has to sit out for 4-6 weeks recovering from hand surgery. Wednesday night’s game at NC State won’t be easy, but Tony Bennett’s group should still be the clear favorite for the ACC regular season crown. I have two questions. Will Virginia improve over the long run because other players will have to shoulder more of the scoring load in Anderson’s absence? And will the star junior come back right where he left off? The answer to the second question likely depends on how long he’s out. If it’s just four weeks, he’ll have more time to get back in the swing of things before postseason play begins. The answer to the first question, though, will decide if Virginia gets caught by any ACC foes.
3. Richmond Times Dispatch: Buzz Williams made an interesting halftime wardrobe change that’s gotten his friend Scott Barber some free publicity. It didn’t hurt that Virginia Tech managed to eke out a win over Georgia Tech on Monday, but Williams switch to a “loud” (according to Barber) sweater got plenty of attention. My question is how hot is a wool sweater? It doesn’t seem like great coaching wear for someone who moves around the sidelines a lot (especially for someone just waiting on a more talented team to inspire opposing students to replace Gary Williams’ name in cheers). Regardless, you can buy a orange and purple argyle sweater of your own, and support charity while you’re at it.
4. Syracuse Post Standard: You don’t often hear Jim Boeheim apologize. I’m sure it’s happened before, but not nearly as often as he snaps at reporters. So it’s pretty surprising that Boeheim called Joe Starkey to apologize after the reporter had asked about the hygiene of the Syracuse program. Starkey responded by ripping Boeheim in a weekend column (comparing him to Bill Belichick, of all people). This whole series of events makes me wonder whether the NCAA is poised to drop the hammer on Syracuse and Boeheim wanted to do some pregame damage control.
5. Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Pittsburgh has a 14-person committee convened to find a new athletic director. Not impressed? Don’t worry, they’ve also burned a large pile of money hired a search firm to help identify their top candidates. Jamie Dixon isn’t on the committee, but I’d expect him to have some weight with the final decision. The good news is that Pittsburgh expects to have its new athletic director hired by the spring.

1. Grantland and Daily Tar Heel: Here are the last two Dean Smith tributes (for now). Grantland‘s Charles Pierce discusses his personal memory of Smith, putting it in the context of his own life and Smith’s career. The North Carolina student newspaper also did a great job eulogizing the longtime head coach.
2. Bleacher Report: This is a terrific profile of Wake Forest’s Danny Manning from B/R’s Jason King. My favorite part is the anecdote about how he’s been trying to get Devin Thomas to be less volatile. According to Thomas, Manning has the team hack Thomas in practice every time he gets the ball and makes him run laps if he loses his cool. Manning also likes to keep things low key, going to extreme lengths to keep his team focused. I worry that this strategy will get old quickly for boosters if Wake Forest doesn’t improve quickly enough, but if Manning gets super-recruit Harry Giles on campus, I’m not sure anyone in Winston-Salem will care that he expects the bus to be quiet. And I also expect that the Demon Deacons will improve.
3. Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician: This is a really interesting idea: Instead of banning the Syracuse team from the postseason, ban Jim Boeheim. After all, the incidents in question didn’t occur this year nor did they involve any of the players currently on the roster. But they did happen under Boeheim’s watch. I hate postseason bans (except in the most extreme circumstances, not for infractions that happened seven years ago), but banning Boeheim from the program without pay it would hit him where it hurts. It would also send a clear message that the NCAA isn’t blaming the players for these transgressions; rather, the coaches who were responsible. Many people would no doubt welcome such a penalty.
4. Fayetteville Observer: Jahlil Okafor‘s hands are bigger than Elton Brand’s (at least as measured from the palm to the tip of the middle finger). That’s crazy. There are only six players in the DraftExpress database of the last six years who can match his hand-width, which explains why Duke lets him survey the floor while holding the ball in one hand. Well, that and he’s also one of the front-runners for National Player of the Year.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: This is a cool story on Georgia Tech assistant Tom Herrion and his work with Autism Speaks. Herrion and his friend Pat Skerry are the ones behind the puzzle piece pins you’ve been seeing on coaches throughout the country recently. Good on them for bringing awareness.

After two straight weekends full of buzzer-beaters and furious comebacks, this was a much quieter weekend in the ACC. In the headline event on Saturday night, Virginia held off Louisville in a defensive struggle. Earlier in the day, Duke blew out Notre Dame at Cameron Indoor, gaining big-time revenge for the Irish’s win over the Blue Devils in South Bend 11 days prior. Elsewhere, North Carolina was sluggish early at Boston College but came on strong in the second half to beat the Eagles in another Saturday game. After all of this, Virginia is now two games clear in the loss column in its quest for a second straight ACC regular season title, with four schools behind the Cavaliers tied with three losses each. Pittsburgh also overtook visiting Syracuse; Georgia Tech beat Wake Forest in Atlanta; and Florida State won on the road at Virginia Tech. In the only Sunday ACC action of the weekend, Miami got a much-needed home win over Clemson. Here are some of the other highlights from the ACC’s weekend action.

Pittsburgh’s Jamel Artis has become an All-ACC candidate with his strong recent play.
(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

• Most Outstanding Player: We listed Pittsburgh’s Jamel Artis as an unsung hero after a solid weekend performance a couple of weeks ago. Now, after streaking together a series of outstanding games, it’s time to list the sophomore forward among the ACC’s elite players. Saturday afternoon’s contest in the Peterson Events Center was a perfect example of how well Artis is playing in many areas — he finished the game with 20 points, 10 boards, three steals, and five assists. Syracuse led by as many as 10 points in the first half before Artis led the Panthers all the way back to the lead and the victory. His 14 points after intermission were punctuated by a dagger three to give Pitt up a five-point lead with a minute to go in the game.
• Best Win: There wasn’t an obvious choice for this award since pretty much all the favored teams won, so let’s go with a team that probably needed a win more than anyone else. Even though Miami was favored to beat Clemson on Sunday night in Coral Gables, the Hurricanes’ 56-45 victory over the red-hot Tigers was huge for Jim Larranaga’s squad. By snapping a three-game losing streak, Miami moved back over .500 in ACC play and keeps the Hurricanes’ NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Clemson entered the game having won four straight and led by a point at the half, but the Tigers couldn’t contain Miami’s shooters down the stretch as the Hurricanes shot 55 percent after intermission. Sheldon McClellan led Miami with 19 points, while Tonye Jekiri ruled the paint, grabbing 16 rebounds. 

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As I’m sure you heard on Sunday, legendary former North Carolina head coach Dean Smith died this weekend. His death led to an outpouring of stories, some of which are noted below. I wouldn’t read them all at once and there’s some repetition of tropes, but they paint slightly different perspectives of the same image (mostly through anecdotes, as Smith hated interviews).

1. ESPN: This story written by Tommy Tomlinson last year is as good as any about Smith’s struggles with dementia. Don’t miss out on Mike Puma’s 2007 feature or Dana O’Neil’s tribute, either.
2. Boston Globe: Bob Ryan does a tremendous job looking at Smith’s overall legacy (bookended with big games against Boston College).
3. Washington Post: John Feinstein (who’s currently working on a book about Smith, Mike Krzyzewski, and Jim Valvano) adds another perspective, looking at some of the people that Smith touched during his life.
4. Sports Illustrated: SI named Smith its Sportsman of the Year in 1997. It’s a great (uplifting) piece that’s a good way to break up the others. There’s also Frank Deford’s piece on the 1982 National Championship and Seth Davis’ obituary.
5. Raleigh News & Observer: This is maybe the paper with the most complete coverage of Smith’s passing, highlighted with Ron Green’s look back at Smith’s career (Green was a longtime ACC columnist). The News & Observer does a tremendous job as well, thanks to Luke DeCock’s piece on his legacy and Barry Jacobs’ eulogy.
6. Wall Street Journal: Ben Cohen starts with Smith’s contributions to the tempo-free community, using it as a microcosm for an ahead-of-his time career.
7. Tar Heel Blog: Smith didn’t just interact with the best basketball players in the world or reporters — he also gave his time to aspiring coaches and everyday students.
8. The Sporting News: Mike DeCourcy provides another valuable perspective on Smith’s legacy and his importance.
9. CBSSports.com: Gary Parrish throws his hat in the ring by looking at Smith’s contributions off the court.
10. Durham Herald-Sun: John McCann does a good job putting together many of the immediate reactions to Smith’s death.

Another week, another slate of terrific basketball from the ACC. While some teams seemingly riding high got a dose of reality this week (hello Virginia and Notre Dame), others showed their ability to overcome adversity (Duke), while others flew under the radar entirely (Clemson). This is this week’s ACC Stock Watch:

Trending Up

• Duke. The Blue Devils showed the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon was not going to be a distraction for them, as they went into John Paul Jones Arena Saturday and knocked off previously unbeaten Virginia. Avoiding a letdown after that big win in knocking off Georgia Tech at home was nice to see from such a young squad, too.
• Louisville. The Cardinals had an impressive week, exacting revenge on North Carolina in an impressive comeback fashion at home and emerging victorious from a road trip at Miami. The offense is coming around, making Rick Pitino’s team look as if it may be peaking at the right time.
• Clemson. How many casual ACC fans realize that the Tigers have reeled off four straight wins? Their demolition of NC State in Raleigh was particularly impressive on January 28th, but taking care of two teams they should defeat in Boston College and Florida State this week showed the team is still battling for a ticket to the Dance for Brad Brownell.

Sidy Djitte and Clemson are riding a four-game winning streak in the ACC. (AP)

• Wake Forest. Danny Manning’s team, so close in so many defeats this year, had a nice week in dispatching of Virginia Tech and defeating a talented (but hard-to-figure out) NC State team. More importantly than that is that the Demon Deacons may be regaining some of the home-court edge they lost during Jeff Bzdelik’s tenure.
• Terry Rozier, Louisville. Rozier has four straight 20-point games, but his matching 22-point performances this week were huge for Louisville in overcoming the Tar Heels in overtime and winning the tough road test against the Hurricanes. He and Chris Jones continue to make life easier for Montrezl Harrell down low, and some argue Rozier is the Cardinals’ most dangerous offensive threat.
• Justise Winslow, Duke. Whether or not it was accurate that Winslow was hitting the “freshman wall,” he broke out of it in fine fashion this week. With Jahlil Okafor hounded by Virginia’s double teams, Winslow willed the Blue Devils to victory with a 15-point, 11-rebound performance. He matched that effort with another stat-stuffer against the Yellow Jackets: 15 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, two steals. Some believe he’s the key cog in the Duke machine going forward.

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This is the latest edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 4.

Current Standings

With the conference season now just past the halfway point, some distinct tiers are forming with respect to points per possession margin (PPM). Virginia is clearly in a class by itself even though the Cavaliers hold a very slim one-game lead in the standings. Behind Virginia is a four-team group that’s looks very similar in both the standings and in PPM. Every weekend features a couple of great match-ups between the ACC heavyweights and this Saturday is no exception. Louisville travels to Charlottesville (7:00 PM ET – ESPN) for the first of two meetings with the Cavaliers, and Duke gets a chance for revenge when it hosts Notre Dame (1:00 PM ET – CBS). If both home clubs prevail, Virginia will have a two-game lead in the loss column over the other four legitimate contenders – assuming that North Carolina also wins Saturday afternoon at Boston College.

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If we have learned anything about Miami this season, it’s that as Angel Rodriguez goes, so go the Hurricanes. And unfortunately for Jim Larranaga right now, that’s not a good thing. Due in great part to a major drought from its on-floor leader, Miami has now dropped three straight ACC games and has likely fallen on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble. The Hurricanes’ home defeat to Louisville on Tuesday night was just the latest example of how difficult things are for Miami when the junior is having an off night. A look at the box score reveals that he failed to reach double-figures for the fourth time in conference play — all Miami losses. The chart below shows just how strong the correlation is between Rodriguez’s performance and the team’s ACC fortunes.

The trend also extends to Miami’s non-conference games. In the Hurricanes’ two solid November road wins against Florida and Charlotte, Rodriguez averaged 19.0 points and made 9-of-15 three-pointers. In those two head-scratching blowout home losses to Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky, he only managed a total of 13 points and shot a miserable 1-of-11 from distance. Part of the problem is that Miami relies too much on the transfer guard for offense — carrying an extremely high usage rate of 31.9 percent in ACC play. Here’s a look at how Rodriguez compares to some of the other prominent ACC guards in both usage and performance.

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Throughout the first decade of this century, Boston College was among the most consistent programs in the Big East (and later, the ACC). The Eagles earned six NCAA Tournament bids between 2001 and 2007, including a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2006. Head coach Al Skinner enjoyed a well-deserved reputation for taking unknown prospects and turning them into marquee players. For example, Skinner plucked former Eagles point guard Troy Bell out of Richfield, Minnesota, before he became a three-time First Team All-Big East performer (2001-03) and two-time Big East Player of the Year (2001, 2003). Things were definitely going well on the hardwood for the program, but things took an unexpected downturn in the late 2000s, which resulted in Skinner’s termination following the 2009-10 season (his second losing year in three). Little did the school’s administration know at the time that disappointment experienced at the end of Skinner’s tenure was a sign of more to come.

Boston College Head Coach Jim Christian Gets Great Effort From His Players (USA Today Images)

Tasked with replacing Skinner was Cornell head coach Steve Donahue, who was fresh off leading the Big Red to the Sweet Sixteen. While his tenure in Chestnut Hill got off to a fairly promising start with a 21-13 record and a resultant NIT appearance, things only went down from there. In the next three seasons, Boston College amassed a combined 33-63 overall record with a 15-37 mark in ACC play. Donahue was dismissed following last season.

After Donahue’s termination, it was widely speculated that Harvard head coach Tommy Amaker would become Boston College’s next coach. Amaker said thanks, but no thanks, however, and chose to remain at in Cambridge. Shortly after that rejection, the Eagles found their man in Ohio head coach Jim Christian. In his introductory news conference, athletic director Brad Bates noted “three remarkable traits” that he believed set Christian apart from other candidates: 1) his ability to recruit and develop players; 2) his energy and enthusiasm; and 3) his proven track record as a head coach. And yet, before Christian could even preside over a single practice, his roster took a significant hit when incumbent starters Ryan Anderson and Joe Rahon both transferred out of the program.

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