Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VI
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 4th, 2016Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. With the season winding down, we’ll look at which ACC schools are getting hot as the postseason beckons. We’ll also forecast how the final standings may look (this will be easier now than ever!) and what it means for each ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, March 2nd.
Current Standings
With just seven games left to play in the ACC regular season (all on Saturday), these numbers shouldn’t change much. As you’ll notice, efficiency margin and win-loss record correlate as strongly as you would imagine. No team with a losing record has a positive efficiency margin, although one team over .500 in the standings does have a deficit in points per possession. Virginia Tech has achieved its winning mark in the ACC despite being outscored by 0.03 points per possession. The Hokies have pulled off this neat trick by winning the close ones in Cassell Coliseum – Virginia Tech is 4-0 in home games decided by three points or less or in overtime. With his team picked to finish 14th in the league in the preseason, Buzz Williams is rightfully garnering support as a potential ACC Coach of the Year.
It looks like we will have new offensive (Notre Dame) and defensive (Louisville) efficiency league champions this year. Virginia has had the ACC’s best defense in three of the last four seasons, including the last two, but to make it three in a row, the Cavaliers will have to outscore the Cardinals by approximately 30 points in Charlottesville on Saturday night. At least Tony Bennett’s guys control their own destiny in that pursuit, unlike the six-time defending offensive efficiency champion. The last season that Duke did not have the league’s top offensive unit was 2009, when North Carolina earned that distinction on its way to a National Championship. However, it looks like the Blue Devils reign is about to end. They only trail Notre Dame by a slight margin, but the Irish’s last regular season game is against the league’s worst defense (NC State), while Duke will be tangling with North Carolina, which boasts the ACC’s third best defensive unit. Mike Brey’s team has scored the basketball with impressive ease this season.
Without Boston College
Jim Christian’s guys couldn’t quite pull off their first conference win, losing to NC State at the buzzer on Wednesday night in Raleigh. Boston College led most of the way but were not able to hold off the Wolfpack down the stretch. The Eagles deserve credit for playing much more competitively lately, as they only lost by five in their prior outing against Georgia Tech, as well. As a reminder, the four schools that had the advantage of two regular season meetings with Boston College were North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Clemson, who will wrap up the regular season at BC tomorrow.
Advanced Stat of the Week: Recent Efficiency
While Miami and Duke have the ACC’s best records since January, Virginia has easily been the best team in the league on the court in the last five weeks. Interestingly, during this time frame North Carolina doesn’t have the win totals to match its efficiency performance – all four of the Tar Heels’ defeats have been by six points or less. Notice that while Notre Dame and Duke have had the league’s top offenses for the entire conference season, neither is in the top four in the category in games played since January. Notre Dame in particular has been heading in the wrong direction as the postseason approaches. Perhaps we should have seen this coming, since the Irish’s numbers have long been greatly enhanced by two January blowout wins over Boston College. Clemson has not been able to turn good play on a per possession basis into wins during the second half of the ACC campaign — the Tigers have dropped three road games by three points or less. Still, Brad Brownell’s team tracks as a tough out in the ACC Tournament.
Future Forecast
The chart above provides a predicted order of finish in the ACC, with final regular season records based on KenPom’s current win probabilities for each team. Also included are a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential, as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while these two bracketologists project the field as if it were named tomorrow, we make our projections based on the final KenPom projected records. Our list of NCAA Tournament teams remains the same this week. The ACC looks poised to have three schools among the Selection Committee’s top ten rated teams. It remains to be seen if Virginia, Miami, and North Carolina can all get on the top two seed lines, since they may knock off one another in the league tournament. Duke seems fairly set to be in the 3-6 seed range, while Notre Dame has been slipping lately – the Irish are now is in jeopardy of falling into the bottom half of the bracket. Pittsburgh’s recent win over Duke probably helps the Panthers more than its Wednesday loss to Virginia Tech hurts. That leaves Syracuse as the ACC’s least comfortable team at this point. The Orange finish at Florida State on Saturday. If they fall short in Tallahassee, Jim Boeheim’s team may need at least one and maybe two victories in Washington, DC to secure a spot in the field.
