Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume V
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 26th, 2016Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we examine the relative shooting expertise among ACC schools. We’ll also forecast how the final standings may look and what it means for each ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Thursday, February 25th.
Current Standings
Since last week’s analysis, North Carolina outscored its two opponents by a total of 37 points in extending its lead in efficiency margin while also reclaiming sole possession of first place in the standings. Miami seems to be the outlier among the crowded group of teams just below the Tar Heels. The Hurricanes’ continued struggles on the road is the reason for it. After last Saturday’s blowout loss to North Carolina, not only has Miami lost four of its seven away games, but Jim Larranaga’s team has also been outscored by .08 points per possession in ACC games away from Coral Gables. That makes the Hurricanes the 4th worst team in the league in road efficiency margin. Looking further down the standings, Georgia Tech’s record now corresponds to its efficiency margin, thanks to back to back home wins by a combined three points. This newly found phenomenon in Atlanta (winning close games), has many wondering if Brian Gregory might keep his job for next year, something that was regarded as an impossiblity just two weeks ago.
Without Boston College
Apart from Notre Dame, this chart is now looking more like the one that includes the Eagles. According to KenPom, Boston College has less than a 20 percent chance of victory in each of its last three league games. If they drop all three contests, they will be the first winless team in ACC play since Maryland went 0-14 in the 1986-87 season. The three lucky teams remaining on the Eagles’ schedule are Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Clemson.
Advanced Stat of the Week: Shooting Patterns
It doesn’t surprise us that two-point shooting percentage has a greater correlation to overall shooting efficiency than three-point shooting accuracy. However, we are a little surprised that three-point shooting isn’t more random than it is. Of course there are some outliers — namely North Carolina — but the majority of ACC teams are shooting similarly well (or not) from both sides of the arc. Free throw shooting has a few extremes; most notably, Notre Dame and Clemson are each on pace to post better accuracy from the stripe than we have seen in the league since 2009. On the other end of that spectrum is Wake Forest, who has been horrid from the foul line for the second straight year (61.1 percent in 2014-15). The saddest part for Danny Manning is how his Deacons have wasted their frequent trips to the foul line — Wake leads the ACC in free throw rate (52.0 percent). Note that compared to the rest of the nation, the ACC ranks near the middle among the 32 conferences in terms of shooting accuracy.
Future Forecast
The chart above provides a predicted order of finish in the ACC, with final regular season records based on KenPom’s current win probabilities for each team. Also included are a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential, as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while these two bracketologists project the field as if it were named tomorrow, we make our projections based on the final KenPom projected records. Our list of NCAA Tournament teams remains the same this week. Sadly, it appears both Clemson and Florida State have seen their chances of getting an at-large bid permanently evaporate. Not only are they not in anyone’s mock bracket anymore, but neither is even listed as under consideration. That leaves Pittsburgh and Syracuse as the ACC’s two schools with work still to do to earn inclusion in the Big Dance — each may need a win or two in the ACC Tournament to feel safe on Selection Sunday. Right now we are giving North Carolina a one-seed because we predict the Tar Heels will win the conference tourney in Washington, D.C. We also think Virginia is still in the hunt to be on the one-line, but they would probably need to win out for that to happen.
