Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume IV
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 19th, 2016Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we consider which of the Four Factors are most important to winning in the ACC on a team-by-team basis. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 17th.
Current Standings
Things are incredibly bunched up at the top of the ACC right now, with four schools only a game behind Miami and North Carolina in the loss column. Those two will battle for temporary league supremacy this weekend in Chapel Hill, as the Tar Heels try to bounce back from their crushing midweek loss to rival Duke. Note that the Tar Heels have faced the easiest slate of ACC games among the group of six, which may explain why they hold a slight edge on the rest of the league in efficiency margin. Meanwhile, Duke’s recent tough stretch of games has boosted its strength of schedule from 10th to seventh in the last two weeks. There’s an interesting situation also taking form in the lower middle of the ACC standings. N.C. State and Georgia Tech have performed about as well in conference play as Pittsburgh and Florida State, but because of their middling records, only the latter two are considered bubble teams. Maybe then it isn’t so surprising that the Wolfpack knocked off the Panthers and the Yellow Jackets bested the Seminoles, both on the road, earlier this season. And while most ACC fans will be watching the battle for first place this weekend, there will also be an intriguing matchup on Sunday night in Winston-Salem when 1-13 Wake Forest entertains 0-13 Boston College. In a twist of the old axiom, it will be the resistible force (Eagles’ offense) versus the movable object (Deacons’ defense). Something has to give!
Without Boston College
Notre Dame suddenly looks very average when its two routs over Boston College are removed from the efficiency numbers. There’s certainly no question that the Irish ended up with the least challenging set of home-and-home partners in conference play. Not only did Mike Brey’s team face the Eagles twice this season, but they will also tally two games with 1-13 Wake Forest and 4-9 Georgia Tech before the season is finished. As for the Eagles, there’s still good hope that Jim Christian’s squad will eventually earn a league win — BC’s next four games are against teams with losing ACC records.
Advanced Stat of the Week: Winning the Four Factors, Part 2
Last week we looked at the conference as a whole to determine how victories correlate with each of the Four Factors. Today we break it down by individual school, showing how often the winning team outperforms the losing team in each metric. We are excluding teams with fewer than five league victories here since those sample sizes are too small to draw meaningful conclusions. As expected, shooting efficiency is often the most important factor for the winning teams, but there are some notable exceptions. Pittsburgh only outshot its opponent twice in its seven league wins, while Virginia Tech was the better shooting team just once in its five victories. Buzz Williams‘ team, in particular, deserves credit for finding ways to win unconventionally — the Hokies have also been outrebounded in all five wins. Looking ahead to Saturday’s battle for first place, it appears that a key for North Carolina will be to keep Miami off the foul line — the Hurricanes have a higher free throw rate than their opponents in all their wins. Winning the turnover battle may also decide the outcome, since each team does very well in that metric in their victories. As for Saturday’s other big ACC matchup, it could be all about shooting the ball — Louisville and Duke have yet to win a league game without shooting more efficiently than their opponents.
Future Forecast
The chart above provides a predicted order of finish in the ACC, with final regular season records based on KenPom’s current win probabilities for each team. Also included are a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential, as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while these two bracketologists project the field as if it were named tomorrow, we make our projections based on the final KenPom projected records. Another projected NCAA Tournament team bites the dust this week, as Florida State has now lost three straight and is expected to finish below .500 in league play. Pittsburgh is also now on shaky ground after losing three of its last four, and a daunting closing schedule awaits — three road contests plus home games with Louisville and Duke. It’s hard to see the Panthers finishing the regular season with a winning ACC record. If Pittsburgh doesn’t earn an NCAA Tournament bid, the ACC may only put six teams in the Big Dance for the third consecutive year. Such a meager output would be a huge blow to the league after all the preseason boasting that the ACC may deliver as many as 10 teams to the Tournament.
