Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VII
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 6th, 2015Here is this season’s final edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, March 4.
Current Standings
Hats off to Tony Bennett’s Virginia squad for becoming the first school other than Duke and North Carolina to win consecutive outright ACC regular season titles since the David Thompson-led N.C. State teams of the 1970s. Those Wolfpack squads also won the ACC Tournament both years and brought home the 1974 NCAA championship — lofty but certainly achievable goals for this season’s Cavaliers. Last week we congratulated Virginia for its record-setting performance on the defensive end of the floor, but this week we pay homage to Duke as the Blue Devils should claim the title of the league’s best offense for the sixth year in a row. Despite Mike Krzyzewski’s deserving reputation as a defensive guru, it’s been the Blue Devils’ offense that has carried his teams during the last several seasons. North Carolina, thanks to a second blowout of Georgia Tech in as many weeks, has moved solidly into third place in points per possession margin (PPM). If you’re looking for a team outside the top two to challenge for and perhaps capture the ACC Tourney crown, the Tar Heels would be a good choice even if they end up as the #5 seed. As the only school to play both of the ACC’s heavyweights twice this year, Wake Forest’s PPM is a little deceptive, with Virginia and Duke both inflicting severe beatings in their second meetings with the Deacons.
On Super Bowl weekend, the ACC and ESPN gave us a great Saturday double-header featuring Louisville’s frantic rally to beat North Carolina in overtime followed by Duke’s stunning comeback win at Virginia – still the Cavaliers’ only loss on the season. We can only hope for an equally exciting back-to-back set of games this Saturday, as the same four teams will be in action. Regular season champ Virginia travels to Louisville (Saturday @ 6:30 ET – ESPN) and the Cavaliers will still be without Justin Anderson as the junior forward is still recovering from a broken finger as well as a recent appendectomy on Thursday. Following that game, North Carolina hosts archrival Duke (Saturday @ 9:00 ET – ESPN) with the Tar Heels hoping to gain revenge for a mid-February game that North Carolina seemingly had in its grasp until the last few minutes of regulation. There are also a couple of crucial contests for two teams hoping to get on the right side of the bubble when the NCAA Tournament field is announced next Sunday. N.C. State hosts Syracuse (Saturday @ Noon ET – CBS) in what will be the last game of the year for Jim Boeheim’s Orange, and Miami travels to Virginia Tech (Saturday @ Noon PM ET – ACC RSNs). By the way, if Miami and N.C. State end up tied in the final conference standings, the Hurricanes will be the #6 seed in the ACC Tournament by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Wolfpack in January — their only meeting this year.
Advanced Stat of the Week: ACC Performance Last Five Weeks
With the ACC Tourney coming up, let’s look at which teams may be playing better now than their overall ACC record reflects. To do this we’ve put together results for the last five weeks of conference play, which is basically the latter half of the ACC season.
As you might expect, the top two teams in this view are the same as they were for the full ACC schedule. The key difference is that Duke, which started its current 10-game winning streak with that win at Virginia, has been the more productive squad over that stretch. The loss of Anderson has undoubtedly hurt the Cavaliers’ metrics, but the numbers interestingly show that it is the their offense that has suffered without him in the lineup — the defense has been as stingy as usual. Another interesting fact is that North Carolina maintained a solid PPM despite having a losing record (4-5) over the last nine games. While it’s true that the numbers have been skewed by those two Georgia Tech beatdowns, keep in mind that North Carolina also dropped two overtime games during this stretch — both of which featured blown double-figure second half leads. Finally, if you’re looking for a potential upset next week in Greensboro, note that #3 seed Notre Dame ranks seventh in the league in PPM behind both N.C. State and Miami. Either the Wolfpack or the Hurricanes will be seeded sixth, so that sets up a potential problem game for the Irish in next week’s quarterfinals.
Future Forecast
The above table shows a predicted order of finish with final regular season records based on Ken Pomeroy’s current win probabilities. We have also included a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while their projections are made as if the field was named tomorrow, we make ours based on final projected records. Things are starting to wind down and a couple of ACC teams are running out of opportunities to impress the Selection Committee. Miami probably ended any chance for Pittsburgh to make the field by beating the Panthers on Wednesday night, but the Hurricanes still need to show out well in the ACC Tournament to keep their dancing hopes alive. N.C. State put itself in a much better position by winning Tuesday night at Clemson, but the Wolfpack cannot afford to lose at home to Syracuse this weekend or they would be looking at the risky proposition of selection with 14 total losses — something that rarely happens. We have dropped Duke to the #2 seed line because the projected record above includes a loss to North Carolina Saturday night and we expect that other major conference front-runners (Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona) are more likely to win out from this point and jump the Blue Devils. That predicted win over Duke is also why we have North Carolina seeded higher than the other bracket experts currently do.
