RTC Weekly Primer: An Ode to the Big 12
Posted by Henry Bushnell on January 6th, 2015Money talks. It’s an unavoidable and unfortunate truth. In almost any facet of life, money is persuasive. Whether indirectly or directly, visibly or otherwise, it influences the decisions we make, creates irresistible motives, and causes things to happen that are otherwise undesirable. It’s an unparalleled force. A few years ago, the Big 12 was a victim of the almighty dollar’s faculties. It succumbed to money’s authority. Between 2010-13, while the league went about its business playing collegiate sports in the midsection of America, it was relentlessly under siege. Driven by economic motives, the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 ravaged it, pilfering four of its 12 members and rearranging the landscape of college sports. During this period of extreme uncertainty, there were thoughts of dissolution. There appeared to be a significant chance that the Big 12 would soon cease to exist. At the very least, it had been weakened as it’s BCS brethren had beefed up. These were times filled with worry; with concern; with fear.
The Big 12 May Have Lost the Football Wars This Year, But It is Killing the Basketball Side (USA Today Images)
Several years later, with all of that uncertainty now in the rear view mirror, money seems somewhat irrelevant. It still talks, and the economic side of Big 12 sports might not be as lucrative as that of the Big Ten or SEC. But money doesn’t automatically result in good basketball. And in 2014-15, while the Big Ten and SEC are crammed with mediocrity, the conference that once looked in serious danger is thriving. Seven of the 10 conference teams currently rank in KenPom’s Top 25, while only eight from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC collectively make the cut. In an age where money increasingly steps to the forefront of any discussions on college sports, there remains a majestic purity about this sport. And as conference play gets underway in the Big 12, that purity will be as enjoyable and as evident as ever. It’ll also produce night after night of high-quality basketball.
Three for the Money
Kansas at Baylor | Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPNU
Where else to start but with the Big 12? As will be the case many times this year, there are multiple mouth-watering match-ups in conference play, but any game that involves Kansas still draws extra attention. It’s an annual tradition around this time of year to pose the question, “Is this the year that somebody finally unseats Kansas atop the Big 12?” But this year, such an inquiry might just have a little more merit to it. Baylor isn’t necessarily one of the teams that could knock the Jayhawks from their perch — that responsibility should fall to Oklahoma, Texas and Iowa State. But the Bears are an outstanding example of the depth of the league. Picked sixth in the Big 12 preseason poll, Scott Drew’s squad has been steadily improving this season. Led by a physically imposing front line that pounds the offensive glass as well as anybody in the country, Baylor won’t be an easy out for anybody. And especially not for a Kansas team that, despite only two losses and several good wins, hasn’t looked vintage. It is important to note that we’ve seen the stage set like this before only to have the Jayhawks hit their stride in early February and run away from the pack. But the backcourt of Frank Mason and Wayne Selden is a far cry from what Self has had in Lawrence over the years. The interesting match-up here, however, is down low, where Kansas’ forwards, specifically Cliff Alexander, will have to brandish their Big 12 title winning credentials and show some requisite toughness.
Virginia at Notre Dame | Saturday, 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2
Jerian Grant Has Been Outstanding This Season (USA Today Images)
Sometimes, throughout the course of a college basketball season, you fall in love with a team or two. Whether it’s a narrative, its style of play, or its individual players, something just draws you to them. I have a dilemma. I think I’m falling in love with Notre Dame. I also think I’m falling in love with Virginia. And I’m doing so for entirely different reasons. Along with the rest of the country, I’m going to enjoy Saturday’s match-up in South Bend because it pits the nation’s best offense, Notre Dame, against the nation’s third-best defense, Virginia. That alone should tell you that this is must-watch basketball. And in fact, it might just be best to leave it at that. When Notre Dame has the ball, enjoy the spectacle. Enjoy the incredibly high level of basketball that will be played. Which side will give in? I’m not sure, but it’s going to be a whole lot of fun finding out. All I’ll say is that I have a hunch that it will be Jerian Grant getting the last laugh.
Louisville at North Carolina | Saturday, 2:00 PM EST, ESPN
Is there a three-team tier atop the ACC? Or a four-team tier? Or even a five-team tier? This game, along with the one four hours later in South Bend, could decide that. Notre Dame went to Chapel Hill on Big Monday and picked up a huge win, suggesting that the Irish belong in that top tier. Now it’s UNC’s turn to make a statement, something the Tar Heels have struggled to do so far this season. They’re just 2-4 against the KenPom top 40, and aside from a victory over Ohio State in Chicago that doesn’t look as great now as it did then, Roy Williams’ team has missed several opportunities. Williams will likely look at Louisville’s loss to Kentucky and hope that UNC’s length can give the Cardinals similar problems, but the key will be on the other end. How will Marcus Paige and Nate Britt cope with the pressure of Terry Rozier and Chris Jones? And can Paige do enough on his own offensively while also getting Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto and Justin Jackson involved?
Matching Up: Monte Morris vs. Juwan Staten
Another thing the Big 12 possesses this season is a bunch of underappreciated stars. West Virginia senior point guard Juwan Staten and Iowa State sophomore Monte Morris are two great examples. Morris has been outstanding this year. He leads Iowa State in minutes, assist rate, turnover rate and offensive rating, and really should be mentioned in the same breath of the likes of Fred Van Vleet and Marcus Paige. So should Staten, though. West Virginia has risen all the way to 12th in KenPom’s rankings, and that’s in large part due to the senior’s stellar play. He’s the one true star on Bob Huggins’ team, and he doesn’t have many weaknesses. Look for him to shoulder much of the offensive load when the Mountaineers take on Iowa State on Saturday.
Kentucky is a 22-point Favorite in an SEC Game…
Against a team — Ole Miss — that, if you split the SEC into three tiers, would be in the middle tier. That’s kind of ridiculous, and not because the line should be lower, but because it shows how good the Wildcats are.
Mid-Major Watch
Davidson Won’t Sneak Up on Anyone If It Wins at VCU Wednesday Night (USA Today Images)
It still seems a bit odd to call the Atlantic 10 a mid-major league, but it is a step below the power five (or six, including the Big East). On Wednesday, two of its five KenPom top-50 teams square off as newly-minted member Davidson travels to VCU. The Wildcats, unbeknownst to many fans until March, boast one of the top-10 adjusted efficiency offenses in the country, and are comfortable playing at a fast pace. Their early season form has been inscrutable. There were no top-100 wins for Bob McKillop’s club, but the Wildcats’ only two losses came away from home against UNC and Virginia. Is Davidson a legitimate contender in the A-10? Wednesday’s game will go a long way toward answering that question.
Mountain West is There for the Taking
With San Diego State struggling to put the ball in the basket – yeah, that’s probably the understatement of 2015 – the Mountain West looks set to stage a four-team race to the finish that anybody could realistically win. Two games this week will be telling. New Mexico and San Diego State square off on Tuesday night at Viejas Arena, and then Wyoming, arguably the conference’s best team right now, travels to Colorado State on Wednesday. A Wyoming win would push the Cowboys to 3-0 in conference play and might force us to declare Larry Shyatt’s group the favorites.
Upset Alert!
Could We See This on Sunday at NC State?
National television… students recently back from winter break… historical precedent… an urge for another court rush… that’s right, I’m thinking Duke could go down this weekend. The Blue Devils have been rolling of late, but when they travel to NC State on Sunday (1:30 PM EST, CBS), it will be their first road test in over a month. There isn’t one particular thing that the Wolfpack do well to explain this upset alert, but they can score at a decent clip, and something just tells me they’ll be making shots on Sunday. The one factor that mitigates this danger is that this is the second game in a brutal three-game stretch for NC State that also includes Virginia and North Carolina.
Crunch Time
- St. John’s – There’d be no better way to bounce back from an 0-2 start in conference play than with a win over Villanova.
- Maryland – Two tough but winnable road games. If the Terps snag both, I’ll start to climb aboard this bandwagon.
- Oklahoma State – KenPom likes the Cowboys, and the general consensus seems to be that they’re pretty good. But Joe Lunardi left them out of his most recent bracket, and they’ve lost their two toughest games by a combined 35 points. At Iowa State or at home against Texas would be a good place to start earning some respect from Joey Brackets.
- Michigan State – Sparty plays three games this week. The first is in the books, a win over Indiana Monday night. If Tom Izzo can get the second victory at Iowa on Thursday, a 3-0 week could be in the cards with Northwestern looming – err, okay, not really looming – on Sunday. A perfect week would be huge for this team’s confidence.
CBB Survivor Picks
- ACC: Miami – After squeaking by with Notre Dame in week one, I’ll go with the Hurricanes even though they could be due for a letdown after their near-upset of Virginia.
- Big East: Georgetown – Not a single survivor in week one… I told you this league would be a mess.
- Big Ten: Penn State – Penn State? Yep, because the Nittany Lions only play one game and it’s at home against Michigan. That’s a 65 percent bet, according to KenPom. That might be the second best odds after Wisconsin, which I used last week.
- Big 12: Kansas – When everybody has tough match-ups, go with the best teams. And I think Baylor is a bit overrated.
- Pac 12: Washington – Though this pick doesn’t look as sweet now as it did a few days ago…
- SEC: Kentucky – Aside from the Wildcats, the SEC is pretty confounding. We don’t really know who’s good and who’s not yet. So I’ll take Kentucky in week one with the knowledge that I’ll be more able to identify who the good teams in this conference are in week two.
