We’ve been all around the Stanford program in the past week, but we’ve got time for one more post. At the end of every week we like to take a step back and look at the overall state of the program – not just how the team performed last year or is expected to perform next year, but what the long-term prognosis for the program is. At Stanford, while the short-term future appears to be bright (no pun intended), things could take a turn for the worse quickly. As we pointed out earlier this week, before current head man Johnny Dawkins took over in 2008-09, the Cardinal had made 13 out of the last 14 NCAA Tournaments. They haven’t gone dancing since, but the pieces are there to make it back soon enough. The problem in the past four seasons have been mid-season losing streaks. Not only do they usually kill all excitement around the team, but it ruins any chance at gaining an at-large entry into the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at some of these mid-season collapses:

This Photo May Have Been Taken Prior To The 2008-09 Season, But It’s A Scene That Fans Have Seen Many Times In The Past Four Years (credit: Roundball Nuts)

• 2011-12 : Started out the season 15-3, including double-figure victories against Colorado State and Oklahoma State. Then immediately dropped five of their next six, all by double figures.
• 2010-11 : It wasn’t going to be an NCAA Tournament year anyway, but dropping five out of seven games from early January to early February put all postseason dreams to rest.
• 2009-10 : The Cardinal lost five of six games from late January to mid-February, putting a footnote on Dawkins’ worst season on the Farm.
• 2008-09 : By far the worst collapse of Dawkins’ tenure came in his first season. Stanford started out the season with an 11-1 record, picking up home victories against Colorado, Northwestern, Texas Tech, and Arizona, while going on the road and beating Colorado State and Santa Clara. Then, out of nowhere, disaster struck. An NCAA Tournament season became a “scrape-your-way-into-the-CBI” campaign after dropping eight of 10 contests in more than a month-long span.

Terrible. Just terrible. And it happens like clockwork every year.

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We’re most of the way through our week-long look at the Cardinal and have at least enough information to make some educated guesses about what the 2012-13 season has in store. With four players lost to graduation and a trio of highly rated recruits coming in, we can expect to see a different, and likely better, team than won the NIT Championship last year. But who exactly will lead this team and what will the final results be? Here are our guesses.

Stanford’s Leading Scorer – Chasson Randle. No doubt about this one. Randle’s average of 13.8 PPG last season might drop a bit due to him trying to become more of a passing threat, but there’s no question that he is the best scorer on the roster. The next step for Randle is to become an All-Pac-12 guard, and he’s got the talent and scoring ability to do so.

Randle’s Ability To Take the Ball To The Rack And Score Will Make Him Stanford’s Leading Scorer For The Second Straight Season (credit: Paul Sakuma)

Stanford’s MVP – Aaron Bright. Bright is the team’s truest point guard and has shown good growth in his first two seasons on the Farm. If the upward trend continues, he should be averaging around 13 PPG and 5 APG next season. Overall, he’s not a better talent than Randle, but his nose for the ball and on-floor leadership make him one of the most important players on the team.

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As we go to wind down our coverage of the Stanford basketball program, we head back to Adam Butler of Pachoops for his perspective on the Cardinal basketball program. Adam and I go over every pressing topic surrounding the team’s immediate future, including how they plan on replacing three key seniors and expectations for sophomore-to-be extraordinaire, Chasson Randle. Here’s our conversation:

RTC: How do the Cardinal replace players like Josh Owens, Jarrett Mann, and Andrew Zimmerman?

AB: First of all, you don’t replace an Andrew Zimmerman. Beards like that don’t come around often, but when they do, they’re irreplaceable. On the court, however, Mann and Zimmerman were very solid role players and integral to the success of a Johnny Dawkins team in which hustle and defense would seem to be heavily rewarded. How else does a guy averaging 3 PPG and 3 RPG (Mann) play 20 MPG? So replacing those guys in some respects is easy in that they brought effort to the table. Guys like Josh Huestis, Gabriel Harris, and John Gage should be able to fill those roles. But it’s Owens who leaves the most gaping hole in the Cardinal lineup. Hustle, effort, all of the Tebow stuff, cannot replace talent, and Josh Owens had that. I loved his game and believe he’ll be tough to replace. But this is a roster seemingly full of eligible Owens replacements. My favorite of those candidates is Dwight Powell, who has length and athleticism for days but basketball IQ for minutes. Some more floor time for the rangy Canadian should go a long way in helping the Cardinal replace Owens. I’ll talk about Anthony Brown later.

Before Playing Basketball At Stanford, Zimmerman Starred As The Geico Caveman

RTC: Through some luck and upsets along the way, Stanford never faced a team seeded higher than fifth in the NIT. Do you think it would have won the whole thing if they had to face teams like Mississippi, Arizona, and Seton Hall instead of Illinois State, Nevada, and Massachusetts?

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Pachoops’ Adam Butler joins us once again to chime in with his thoughts on our Burning Question. This is now his fourth straight appearance after giving us answers on the programs of Arizona, USC, and Washington. As for Stanford’s question, here goes:

Stanford made the NCAA Tournament in 13 out of 14 seasons before current head coach Johnny Dawkins took over in 2008-09. In his four seasons on the Farm, Dawkins has yet to lead the Cardinal back to the Big Dance, which has dropped the program down a step in terms of national prominence. How many more times can he go without dancing before his seat begins to heat up?

Dawkins Needs To Bring Stanford Back To National Prominence In A Hurry (credit: Danny Moloshok)

Connor Pelton: It’s tough to stand out and become a prominent team nationally in college basketball. In college football, an average fan will watch roughly 70 out of 125 FBS teams play at least one game throughout the season. That number is about the same for college basketball, but  it’s out of 345 Division I teams. If you think of it as a huge pie, there are about 30 large slices, 40 medium slices, and the rest are crumbs. Stanford used to be one of those coveted large slices, one that would without a doubt hear their name called on Selection Sunday year in and year out. But since Dawkins has taken over, the Cardinal have taken a step down to just one of the medium slices. Fans around the nation know who they are, but they don’t care enough to stay up until Midnight (on the east coast) to watch them play. The same goes for recruits, and if you find yourself in one of those six or seven-year droughts without going dancing, your four- and five-stars are going to become twos and threes.

With that said, Dawkins was able to pump some life into a program that was a little sleepy by winning the NIT Championship last season. That will buy him some time, if only because he can point to it and say, “Hey, we’re on the road back to success.” But if he doesn’t get back to the promised land within the next two seasons, it might be time to move on in Palo Alto.

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While most relish the onset of Summer, college basketball junkies do not. Most of the news surrounding the sport is recruiting rumors and commitments or injuries and transfer news. In order to help keep folks up-to-date on what their teams are doing during the summer, we put together these summer capsules for each team in the conference. Next up is Villanova.

1. Bidding adieu to Kennedy and saying hello to Chennault.

The Wildcats made two important changes to their roster this summer. The first was officially saying goodbye to sophomore center Markus Kennedy who announced he would transfer, then reportedly reconsidered the decision, then ended up transferring after all. The second was welcoming former Wake Forest point guard Tony Chennault into the fold – the Wildcats also added former Rice guard Dylan Ennis, but he will have to sit out a year before making his Villanova debut. Kennedy showed some promise as a freshman last season, but he expected to be buried on the depth chart and decided to transfer to SMU. The Wildcats will miss the depth, but he wasn’t expected to make much of an impact this season anyway. The more important move is the arrival of Chennault, a Philadelphia native who received an NCAA waiver because of his mother’s health issues to play right away. Chennault averaged 9.2 PPG and 2.8 APG for the Demon Deacons before transferring and his arrival will be a huge boon for the Wildcats who lost starting guards Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek to the draft. Chennault may not become the same type of scorer Wayns was, but he should get every opportunity to start and instantly becomes the most experienced guard on the roster, so there is no doubt that Jay Wright is happy to have him.

2. Are the Wildcats starting from scratch?

Jay Wright Has His Work Cut Out For Him Rebuilding The Program

That is the question that the Philadelphia Daily News posed earlier this month in a long article and interview with ‘Nova head coach Jay Wright. Last season was an unmitigated disaster, and say what you want about Wayns and Cheek, but they would have been valuable players to have this season. There is still a lot of talent on campus and more talent coming in time for this season, but this team hardly stacks up against some of the best teams Wright has assembled in the last five years. Wright acknowledges that his team has a lot of work to do before it can again achieve the success their fans have grown accustomed to recently, but he also thinks the program has built up enough credibility that a rebound can happen quickly. It will likely depend on how quickly freshmen Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu can become impact contributors and whether or not mercurial sophomore Tyrone Johnson can make the leap and become a consistent playmaker. Down the road it will depend on whether Wright can continue to land high-profile recruits, the types that helped the Wildcats make the Elite Eight and Final Four in recent years.

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The 2012-13 version of the Cardinal will not be missing any redshirts or transfers, but coach Johnny Dawkins does welcome in three highly rated recruits. Below, we’ll introduce you to each of those three newcomers, roughly in the order of impact that they’ll have on their new team.

• Rosco Allen, Freshman, Wing, 6’9” 210 lbs, Bishop Gorman High School, Las Vegas, NV – Allen is a classic Johnny Dawkins wing, one who is big enough to bang on the boards but has a tremendous outside stroke as well. The one knock on Allen is his speed, especially in trying to guard the perimeter. That means he needs to bulk up this summer so he is able to guard opponents at the four. Allen should receive good minutes early on next season, but those will quickly dwindle if he isn’t able to keep up on the defensive end. The Cardinal have more than their share of big and lanky defenders in the post, so it’s either bulk up and play down there or improve lateral quickness in order to see more minutes at a less-filled three position on the roster. With that said, Allen didn’t receive offers from North Carolina, UNLV, and UCLA for nothing. He’s basically a bigger Chasson Randle, and he will definitely leave a footprint with the Cardinal by the time he leaves.
  

  Allen Has the Potential To Be The Next Chasson Randle By The Time He Leaves Palo Alto (credit: Sam Morris)

• Grant Verhoeven, Freshman, Center, 6’8” 215 lbs, Central Valley Christian High School, Visalia, CA – With the exception of Brook and Robin Lopez, Stanford has traditionally had smaller centers who have great offensive touch. Verhoeven fits perfectly within this description as he can not only knock down the elbow jumper, but has nice footwork and can turn over either shoulder and score the ball inside. Unfortunately, the one knock on the center is a big one; he has trouble scoring over bigger and more athletic post players, something he’ll run into often against Pac-12 opponents. Still, he has tremendous upside, and after a year in Dawkins’ system, he should be set to gain major minutes down the road. With so many players at a little-used position, Verhoeven will have a tough time earning solid minutes immediately, but down the road he is definitely someone to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »

1. While many athletic programs avoid so much as acknowledging their players are utilizing social media outlets, Tennessee is embracing it. The Volunteers have added players’ Twitter account information on their online player profiles. And associate media relations director Tom Satkowiak hasn’t turned his players loose in the social media world, but rather is educating them on its proper use by conducting seminars and workshops. “I cringe every time I see a coach or program ban the use of social media,” Satkowiak said. “I think we should be educating guys on how to use it because it’s not going to go away. It’s a part of life now. We just need to educate them on how to use it right.” And there are plenty of opportunities to showcase improper use as well, as Satkowiak has done by showing pictures and tweets that have landed other players in big trouble. A coach cannot control every action of his players, so it’s refreshing to see a university turn to education first as opposed to automatically resorting to punishment.
2. Fifth year Kentucky senior Julius Mays doesn’t have long to adjust to his new coach John Calipari, but the guard is coming along quickly in a new system. Mays transferred to the Wildcats with one season of eligibility remaining after playing for NC State and Wright State. And even though he is a veteran player, he is learning new things already. “Coming here it’s just completely different, even the way (Calipari) wants you to come off the ball screens,” Mays said in an interview with CoachCal.com. “It’s completely different than the ways I’ve done in the past, and I’ve played ball screen offense for the four years I’ve been in college.” It is clear that Mays can score, so Calipari will figure out how to find minutes for a player who can provide three-point shooting accuracy and scoring even if he isn’t in the starting lineup.
3. Players can’t be expected to practice and work out every second of the day. It’s the summer, after all, and that means a lot more free time. Kentucky sophomore Kyle Wiltjer and freshman Willie Cauley-Stein recently found the time to take a break from basketball to make an entertaining video complete with break-dancing in the parking lot, freestyle raps, and a special guest appearance from “random dude’ complete with swag. And this isn’t Wiltjer’s first taste of YouTube success. Wiltjer and his crew, affectionately known as the “White Boy Academy”, have made other videos including this dunk fest, this instructional video, and this celebratory rap video. It may be a slow news week for SEC basketball, but we can always count on the WBA and the addition of Cauley-Stein to entertain us. Well done, fellas. Well done.
4. Look out, ESPN College Gameday is coming back to Rupp Arena. Kentucky has been a participant in College Gameday every year since its inception in 2005 (, excluding a Billy Gillispie season in 2009). Rupp Arena has hosted the show three times (2005 against Mississippi State, 2007 against #1 ranked Florida, and 2010 against Tennessee) and holds the record for the largest attendance at the Gameday morning show. But this time, Kentucky fans are really looking forward to the arrival of Digger Phelps after his dig at Big Blue Nation in Nashville last year. Just imagine if Bobby Knight shows up in Lexington too, after his comments or lack thereof about Kentucky and coach John Calipari over the years. The drama of the personalities involved might be the biggest draw for this event, and not the actual game itself, which has the Cats facing off with the Florida Gators.
5. Ole Miss sent out this release , already mentioned in the RTC Morning Five on July 18, stating that the rivalry between Memphis and the Rebels would be renewed on the hardwood. While Tigers coach Josh Pastner said “not so fast my friends,” his beef isn’t just with Ole Miss. He has expressed his lack of interest in playing any regional SEC team. Regarding in-state rival Tennessee, Pastner told a Knoxville radio station, “I have no desire to play Tennessee,” and told CBS Sports his team would not play the Volunteers “unless the Governor makes me.” It sounds like Pastner isn’t making friends anywhere he turns in the Southeastern Conference.

While most relish the onset of Summer, college basketball junkies do not. Most of the news surrounding the sport is recruiting rumors and commitments or injuries and transfer news. In order to help keep folks up-to-date on what their teams are doing during the summer, we put together these summer capsules for each team in the conference. Next up is Pittsburgh.

1. Not to be outdone, this season will be Pittsburgh’s last hurrah in the Big East too.

After Syracuse announced it had come to terms with the Big East on a departure date, you knew it wouldn’t take long for Pittsburgh to follow suit and the Panthers surprised no one when they announced they would be leaving at the same time as Syracuse. The school will have to pay the Big East $7.5 million, but that is chump change compared to what the school stands to make after the switch to the ACC. The real losers here are once again Big East basketball fans. Physical, gritty, and well-coached, the Panthers epitomized Big East basketball and also just so happened to be one of its best programs under Ben Howland and now Jamie Dixon. They don’t have the same storied history and star power that Syracuse has, but fantastic players such as Brandin Knight, Levance Fields, Carl Krauser, and DeJuan Blair all left indelible marks of the basketball memories of fans, and the league will be hard-pressed to find a team to replace Pitt.

2. Get ready for the emergence of Lamar Patterson.

Lamar Patterson is poised for a huge junior season. Photo: Associated Press

Ashton Gibbs has graduated after what feels like eight years in a Panthers’ uniform and he has taken an awful lot of points with him. The Panthers are in the market for some scoring. Transfer Trey Zeigler – more on him in a minute – should help, but based on summer league reviews, the player who will be the most help in the scoring department is junior Lamar Patterson. Everyone seems to agree that Patterson’s solid but unspectacular statistics have been because he wasn’t selfish enough. Well apparently he got the message, and so he has used his improved shooting touch and aggression to basically dominate summer league competition and put himself atop the list of potential breakout candidates for next season. He has always had physicality and athleticism to become a standout performer, but now it appears he has added the necessary polish to be one of the conference’s most improved and well-rounded players.

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1. Last year, the Pac-12 and the Big Ten announced plans to enter into a scheduling partnership with each other, with each school in each conference expected to play one annual game against the opposing conference in football and basketball. However, as has become the norm, football had to ruin everything for the basketball side of things. With the Pac-12 committed to a nine-game football schedule, and with teams on both sides wanting the freedom to schedule a sufficient number of cupcakes, the conferences found out that they just couldn’t get things done and scrapped their plans for a scheduling partnership. Unfortunately, the basketball baby got thrown out with the football bathwater, as plans to increase games between the two conferences in roundball have been scrapped as well. This is why we can’t have nice things.
2. After several years of debilitating spinal problems, former UCLA great Bill Walton will be back behind the mic for ESPN this fall, calling an as-yet-undetermined number of Pac-12 games next season. Five years ago he collapsed due to his spine problems and thought that his “life was over.” But, after several successful surgeries, Walton is back up and ready to start over. While he’s not everyone’s cup of tea as the color man, he cracks me the hell up and certainly never takes himself or the game more seriously than it needs to be taken. Welcome back Bill!
3. It was a great year for recruiting in the Pac-12 as UCLA and Arizona both scored top five recruiting classes in 2012. But the 2013 class is even more highly regarded and Pac-12 teams are involved with numerous highly-ranked recruits. One of the best of those, San Jose’s Aaron Gordon, confirmed yesterday that Arizona and Washington are his top two choices, with speculation running rampant that it is Washington’s race to lose. The Huskies remain in the hunt for other elite recruits like Jabari Bird and Isaac Hamilton and head coach Lorenzo Romar has staked a lot on landing a big recruiting class in 2013.
4. The Pac-12’s crown jewel of that 2012 recruiting class is UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad, but his Bruin career got off to a rough start as he sprained his ankle playing in a pickup game following his very first workout with the team. Muhammad has been sitting out ever since, but is expected back in action in plenty of time to take part in the team’s August trip to China. That’s key, since head coach Ben Howland has been pointing toward that trip as a chance to jump start the year and get his new pieces all on the same page prior to the start of the regular season.
5. We’ve discussed that Utah recently released an underwhelming 2012-13 non-conference schedule, but for head coach Larry Krystkowiak, that schedule is all part of a rebuilding process. After a 6-25 year, the Utes are still in the middle of remaking their roster in order to get back to a place where they can compete at a high level again. Despite a host of new players, nobody sees the Utes’ current roster consisting of guys who are going to do that. But with the chance to score some early victories against manageable competition and develop some confidence in their young roster, Krystkowiak and company hope that this weak schedule will get the Utes off on the right foot. Meanwhile, the Utes have committed to restarting their series with Utah State in 2014 after two years off, but Krystkowiak hasn’t been shy about admitting that he’d rather skip the dangerous Aggies whenever possible. However, he did suggest the possibility of a four-team tournament at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City featuring the four Division I programs in the state: Utah, Brigham Young, Utah State, and Weber State. Yes, please.

Illini Nation awaits the 2012-13 season with mixed feelings. Even though most of the fans are relieved to see Bruce Weber leave after nine seasons, they are not overly excited about his replacement, John Groce. The Orange Krush and the majority of the fans expected (hoped?) Illinois to land a high-profile name such as VCU’s Shaka Smart but the coaching search was met with a couple of rejections before Groce was lured away from Ohio University. Nonetheless, everybody is eager to see how the former Ohio State assistant under Thad Matta will do in Big Ten country as a head coach.

Can John Groce bring Illinois back into the top half of the Big Ten?

Evaluating Last Year: Weber’s last season in Champaign can be described using one word – tiring. Even though top recruit Jereme Richmond left the program early for the NBA in spring 2011, there was still enough talent left on the Illini to finish in the top half of the conference last season. The emergence of Meyers Leonard as a formidable force in the paint (13.6 PPG) along with the return of versatile guard Brandon Paul (14.7 PPG) indicated that Illinois wouldn’t have any trouble on the offensive end. Despite their scoring talent, though, Illinois finished 11th in the conference in terms of offensive efficiency, at only 0.97 points per possession. Weber’s offense was not efficient, especially in the second half of the conference play, which led to 12 losses in the last 14 games. They shot only 29.5% from beyond the arc, but still took 35% of their total shots from deep. Weber lost complete control of the team down the stretch and the loss to Nebraska on the road by 23 points was definitely the lowest point of the season. Players looked dejected and there were numerous signs pointing towards Weber’s exit barring a surprising turnaround. Illinois ended with a 17-15 record after starting the season 15-3, which resulted in the coaching change.

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