Morganton News Herald: It’s time for the second installment of the “Birth of ACC Hoops” from Roy Waters. This week’s edition looks at basketball success mainly outside the “Big Four” from North Carolina. Lefty Driesell had a lot to do with it. He put Maryland on the map, but things never quite came together with his best team in 1974 being left out of the NCAA Tournament after a 103-100 overtime loss to eventual national champion NC State in the ACC Tournament championship game.
Charlotte Observer: Who wants to talk about Roy Williams and the Tar Heels’ early exit at Florida State again? Well, before passing too much judgment, you should know that Luke DeCock talked with the NCAA’s national officiating coordinator, John Adams, to discuss the end of that game. From the sound of things, Williams and FSU head coach Leonard Hamiltonmay have tried to call the game, but both lacked the authority to do so. Why that wasn’t abundantly clear (I think an official was nearby both of them during the timeout), I don’t know. I do think the precedent makes sense. For one, a forfeit goes down in the record books as a 2-0 loss, but more importantly, all sporting events should be played till the buzzer. There’s no mercy rule in college athletics; nor should there be one. It’s one thing in a situation like the Cincinnati-Xavier brawl; it’s another because of an impending court rush. I said it yesterday: if you’re worried about your players, have them sit on the bench. The worst thing that could happen is a drunk, belligerent fan could spill beer on someone. Anyway, hopefully this article puts the story to rest for good.
Roanoke Times: Mark Berman thinks Virginia Tech needs a spark plug. I think it needs a win. We’re probably talking about the same thing. This team has talent, but Seth Greenberg attributes its early league struggles to the “absence of a ‘high energy player'” (for the record, I think Dorian Finney-Smith could totally be an energy guy, but the question is whether he can do it his freshman year). I think the team will get some more energy if they put together a win. Unfortunately, the Hokies’ next game is at North Carolina, who is still reeling after the beatdown administered from Leonard Hamilton’s squad. Don’t be surprised if Virginia Tech plays better though (and Erick Green should be back in action).
Fox Sports South: Andrew Jones takes a quick look at the top four point guards in the ACC. The members probably won’t surprise you, but I guarantee the top slot will catch a lot of people off guard. Durand Scott, Erick Green, Kendall Marshall and Lorenzo Brown make up the list in descending order. That’s right, Brown gets the top spot because Jones based his criteria on play-making, scoring and defense. The two matchups I’m most excited about looking forward: Brown vs. Marshall and Dexter Strickland vs. Austin Rivers.
Daily Press: The ACC is in chaos. Florida State seems to have turned things on after a 20-point drubbing from Clemson, but like the rest of the league there’s a lot of variance in the Seminole performances. Same goes for Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, NC State and even North Carolina. The league may not be anywhere close to the best conference in basketball, but it sure is interesting from night to night.
Well, you may have heard that Roy Williams‘ early departure got more time in the news when North Carolina released his account of the incident. Condensing the story, Williams didn’t realize his walk-ons were still on the court after the rest of his team left the floor and apologized to them today. This immediately resulted in backlash from both local and national media for being late and a little weird (it’s not like it made him look better). My thoughts are this (admittedly having no more actual information than anyone else): Williams was livid with his team’s performance and legitimately concerned for its safety, so he went to the locker room and did not even see who was following him. Now, if I was handling the situation, I would’ve put my walk-ons right by the bench, had everyone sit down as soon as the game was over and watch the court rushing from the relative safety of a folding chair. Princeton did this last year in its road loss to Harvard (admittedly, the Harvard crowd was significantly smaller than Florida State). Not only would this prove a point, but I also think players sitting on the bench would be perfectly safe and could leave in peace once the students were on the court. Anyways, that’s my two cents. Here are Tar Heel Fan Blog‘s (with Williams’ comments from his radio show).
TechSideline.com: Chris Coleman offers a brutally honest diagnosis of Virginia Tech basketball. It’s also an indictment of Seth Greenberg (one really interesting stat is that Greenberg had more NBA players in six years at Long Beach State than in over eight years at Virginia Tech). As much as I want to remind Hokie fans that Greenberg brought them to new heights, it’s not unreasonable to think he might be on the hot seat. Not on fire, but the points Coleman makes about the team’s personality and falling ticket sales are real issues.
Fayetteville Observer: Duke’s Austin Rivers has really struggled the last few games. Ironically, the national media seems to be ambivalent at this point. Rivers has the right attitude about his slump though, pointing to the team’s undefeated conference record and working more in practice instead of grumbling about getting less playing time. The freshman is still averaging over 14 points a game and is by far the best shot-creator Duke has.
Washington Post: Mike Wise takes a look at Sean Mosley, who is really the main link between Maryland’s past and present. Mosley started with the likes of Greivis Vasquez, and now he provides necessary leadership for a very young Terrapin team this year. Mosley does the crafty things, mainly shot fakes and steals, as well as the fundamental things, like hitting free throws. He’ll almost never wow you from the stat line, but it’s hard to watch Maryland and think there’s a more important intangibles guy.
Soaring To Glory: Is it time to re-evaluate the ceiling for Boston College? I certainly think so (now that the Eagles have reached the prediction I set in the preseason). Now, do I think that BC will win five conference games? I’m not so sure. I think three or four conference games sounds about right (winning against Wake Forest and Miami at home if I had to guess). Still, the fact that we’re even having this discussion is a sign of how much the Eagles have improved over the last month.
Lynchburg News & Advance: If you want to get in the Morning Five, just use the phrase “he’s pretty popular with the ladies on a campus notorious for its attractive women.” That’s what Nathan Warters did, describing Deividas Dulkys. It’s actually a very good article on the Lithuanian assassin, who came to the Seminoles via Findlay Prep. Wait, this article was written in 2010? Whatever, it’s still worth a read following the career performance from Dulkys.
BC Interruption: Let’s get started with the most important story of the weekend. Boston College has an ACC winning streak! I’m not sure whether this says that the Eagles are better than I expected (probably true), or that Virginia Tech and Clemson are much worse than I originally thought (also likely), but it sure does make ACC play more interesting. Oh, and by the way, Virginia Tech fans don’t need to worry about the bubble this year. Just for those keeping score at home the Hokies already lost to Wake Forest, Boston College and Florida State; the bad news is they play North Carolina, at Virginia, at Maryland and against Duke for the next four conference games. Seriously, that’s a very possible 0-7 start to conference play (though I’d put the over/under at one). Not good. But congratulations to the Eagles, who are a remarkable 2-1.
Searching For Billy Edelin: The other conference shake-up of the weekend came out of Tallahassee, where the Seminoles took the Tar Heels behind a woodshed and clubbed them for two hours to the tune of a 90-57 final score. At the heart of the Florida State offense was an unconscious Deividas Dulkys. Dulkys is a better shooter than people give him credit for (truthfully, I just assumed he couldn’t shoot because he’s on Florida State). The Lithuanian is actually one of the better shooters in the conference, and proved it with an 8-10 performance from the three-point line. He may not do it again, but Florida State fans will remember Dulkys’ career performance for a long time.
Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of the beatdown, the other story (or diversion, in my opinion) from Tallahassee was Roy Williams taking his players off the floor before the end of the game to avoid potential injuries during the court rushing. Leonard Hamilton says it was his idea. That left five walk-ons to face the masses of Seminole faithful streaming onto the court solo. Obviously the move drew a lot of criticism. It also drew this awesome photoshop.
Washington Post: Maryland‘s poor attendance has been documented this year. The same is true of the athletic department’s financial woes. Mark Turgeon is going to be a huge part of trying to overcome the department’s huge deficit over the next few years ($2.8 million this year alone). If he wins, people will come. It’s no coincidence that the basketball team’s revenue has declined since 2006. The school is also investigating outfitting the Comcast Center for concerts or adding ad ribbons between the upper and lower decks. I still think the most important thing is to start winning games. If Turgeon gets this program back in the upper echelon of the conference, the team should make much more money.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Speaking of guys who should be getting more attention, Mfon Udofia is playing much better in Georgia Tech’s recent games. Glenn Rice, Jr., gets most of the press because he is a better scorer and has name recognition, but Udofia may be more important. His current role is to “just be the coach on the floor, pretty much.” He’ll need to be more consistent if the Yellow Jackets want to make a run at finishing somewhere in the middle of the conference.
Before we get started, how about a pretty amazing stat from last night. Duke shot below 50% from the foul line and 25% from three for the first time in school history in its win against Virginia (to be fair, the Cavaliers went 0-11 from three in the second half in a game they lost by three).
Gobbler Country: The Virginia Tech blog takes a look at the Hokies and hands out grades for the starters. Erick Green leads the way with an A followed by Jarell Eddie with a B+. Eddie, in particular, came out of nowhere for me especially. I personally thought the C- for Dorenzo Hudson was generous. True, his numbers aren’t terrible, but I sort of expected him to excel as the second option for Green. The best news from this post is that they still believe in true grades, giving a C to Dorian Finney-Smith despite the fact that “he has nearly met them and exceeded them on the boards”. Take that grade inflation.
Shakin’ The Southland: While we take a jaunt around the blogosphere, this wins the lede of the night: “We just lost to Clifford the Big Red Dog and his merry band of freshmen.” Boston College gets its first conference win! The Eagles pulled off the upset over Clemson exactly how I imagined, knocking down eight threes in a slow game while their opponent went ice cold down the stretch. It’s a great win for the Eagles and a horrendous loss for Clemson coming off an exciting conference opener.
Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon needs more out of Ashton Pankey, Terrell Stoglin, and Alex Len. Pankey played some solid games when Len was on the bench, but losing his starting spot has killed his productivity. Turgeon’s criticism of Stoglin seems harsh, but I think–like the other players–it’s really a compliment. As for Len, Turgeon just wants him to get in game shape.
The Sporting News: Sorry to be recap heavy, but it was an important night in conference play. Duke pulled out the victory in the end, but give Virginia a lot of credit. It played Duke too close for comfort all night. Mike Scott showed he’s almost certainly the most valuable player thus far in the conference. On Duke’s side, Mason Plumlee would be en route to a first-team All-Conference season if not for unbelievably bad free throw shooting. Against the Cavaliers, Plumlee finished 2-10 from the charity stripe.
South Florida Sun-Sentinel: About the lone bright spot from Miami’s beatdown at North Carolina was the continuing solid play from Kenny Kadji. Kadji, once a top recruit at IMG Academy, is finally starting to reach his potential. He’s developed a solid jumper in addition to solid post skills (that will certainly be improved with some more weight). Keep an eye on the Miami little-big man going forward.
Speaking of North Carolina and Miami, I failed to notice something about the game. Fred Black, a contributor at Chapelboro, thought the North Carolina crowd has been “boorish” the last couple of games. I was at one of those games and the last thing I would’ve described the crowd as is “boorish.” Also, I love the vague “school up the road” (coughDUKEcough) with a reputation for “boorish” fans [Author’s Note: For the record, some people think he’s referring to NC State, which could be true and would be equally funny.].
Each week through conference play, we’ll offer up a couple of different takes on the biggest question of the week in the Pac-12. This week:
“Is the Pac-12 a One-Bid League?”
Connor Pelton: With stats like “0-20 in road games against the RPI Top 100” and the conference’s best road win coming at New Mexico State, a good argument can be made that the Pac-12 is a one-bid league. The way I see it, however, the conference will get a minimum of two bids, and possibly a third depending on the conference tournament. At most, the selection committee will have two at-large bids set aside for the Pac-12 going into championship week. The teams most likely in the conversation for those two are California, Stanford, Colorado, and Arizona, while Oregon and Oregon State will have to win the Pac-12 tourney to get in.
Out of those four, I see Cal and Arizona stealing the bids. But if the ultra-soft bubble that we are hearing about now remains through the next two months, Stanford could pull a third at-large spot by making the championship of the tournament. Colorado doesn’t have a true “bad loss” on their schedule at the moment, but I can only see them winning 19-20 games going into championship week. With a poor RPI, they are going to have to get an automatic bid.
Of course this is pure speculation at this point, but we are coming to the point in the season where games like Colorado-Arizona (January 21 and February 9) and California-Stanford (January 29 and March 4) not only matter for the conference race, but also have a huge impact on the national bubble. I think the Pac-12 will get more than one bid, but it is crucial for all four of these teams to prove they belong night in and night out down this stretch run.
Some semblance of order prevailed Tuesday night as Florida State managed a close win against Virginia Tech and North Carolina lodged a quietly scary win against Miami. Bernard James, the old man of the ACC, posted an 18-point, 15-rebound game (nine offensive rebounds) and Ian Miller offered the sufficient guard scoring (15 points) that the Seminoles had lacked in the early going. Virginia Tech simply couldn’t score at a strong enough clip against the defensive-minded Seminoles, managing a field goal percentage of only 30.5%. This is how we expected Florida State would win games, and it’s fun to see a team pull off a victory like this while still turning the ball over 19 times in a relatively slow-paced game. Did I say fun? I meant weird, but oddly gratifying.
Old Man Bernard James Had A Monster Game In The Victory Over Virginia Tech
Meanwhile, North Carolina’s convincing victory against Miami was scarier than you might expect. The Tar Heels draw a lot of offensive firepower from their triumvirate of big, athletic, sharp-shooting wings. Last night, Harrison Barnes went 2-of-12, Reggie Bullock went 2-of-6, and P.J. Hairston went 1-of-6. It was a 17-point win for UNC and the Hurricanes shot 41.8%. The ability to accomplish a high margin win without shut-down defense, hot shooting, or scoring from three of your best offensive players is what makes North Carolina such a dangerous team. Totally crushing an opponent in every facet of the game will always be impressive, but soundly beating a team despite lots of things going wrong? Just as remarkable.
Sports Illustrated: Bubble Watch is back! The bad news is that the ACC only has three teams that are locks or should be in. The good news is there are five more still in the mix (aka teams that have an RPI under 100). The worse news is that Miami and Virginia Tech are now 0-2 to start conference play, leaving NC State, Florida State and Wake Forest to pick up the slack. In a year of middling power conferences the ACC should get four teams invited.
Tomahawk Nation: Speaking of the Seminoles, Leonard Hamilton’s team had a good old-fashioned block party against Virginia Tech last night. They blocked 25.4% of the Hokies’ shots (15-of-59 field goal attempts were blocked). Luckily, Michael Rogner pointed this out twice on Twitter because I totally glossed over it the first time. That’s an outrageous number. Oh, and Bernard James was a beast, going for 18 points and 15 rebounds (of which nine were offensive). The performance earned the Seminoles a road win for their efforts.
Washington Times: Maryland is much better with Alex Len in the lineup, but Mark Turgeon’s squad still has a long way to go. Specifically, the team’s transition defense was horrendous at the RBC Center on Sunday, but NC State’s athletic frontcourt exacerbated the problem, as Mark Gottfried rotated DeShawn Painter and Richard Howell to go against a gassed Len.
Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of NC State, the Wolfpack are the only ACC team with five players averaging double figures for the season. This balance means there are several players who can step up on any given night. The problem is the team’s talent drops off fairly quickly after the top six.
Durham Herald Sun: Dexter Strickland is the newest Tar Heel to have to deal with fans calling for other players to start ahead of him. Last year it was Larry Drew II, as fans and the media called for Roy Williams to start Kendall Marshall instead. I was one of them. This year, I’ll stick with the coach. It’s true that Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston have been terrific and add an invaluable long-range threat to the offense. But I think Strickland helps the team chemistry where Drew clearly hurt it last season. The good news for Tar Heel fans is I expect Strickland to keep helping team chemistry regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench.
BC Interruption: Brian Favat responds to John Feinstein’s critique of ACC basketball since expansion. His argument is that expansion wasn’t the cause of ACC mediocrity, but volatile athletic directors. I certainly agree that expansion didn’t kill the conference’s competitiveness (though I think Mike Krzyzewski made a good point about diluting exposure somewhat), but I’d add the caveat that with success comes stability. The ACC lucked into a murderers’ row of coaches when building its reputation, but the streak ended as some retired. Athletic directors with “quick trigger fingers” certainly makes replacing coaches more difficult, but in the world of big-time college athletics, success is paramount. I may address this later, but this is definitely worth a read.
Miami Herald: Freshman Hurricane point guard Shane Larkin is the son of Barry Larkin, the baseball star who was just elected to the Hall of Fame. Naturally, his father has been hugely important in his athletic development. Specifically Larkin mentioned his game-day preparation and mentality. But most of all, it’s clear that the freshman is just proud and happy for his father.
Washington Post: Virginia‘s defense doesn’t look much different than last year, but it’s much more effective. The major difference: opponents’ three-point shooting. This year, the Cavaliers are doing a better job keeping opponents from collapsing the Virginia defense and kicking it out for an open three. Last year the team allowed opponents to shoot over 36% from three; this year, it’s only allowing them to shoot 27% from beyond the arc. We’ll see how that number changes with the better shooters in ACC play.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution: If you don’t know Bernard James‘ story, read this. Even if you do, there are some details about his life before the Air Force that I didn’t know about. James is one of the most inspiring players you’ll come by in all of sports. He, like many, had to find his own way — which led through three tours of duty in Iraq.
Richmond Times-Dispatch: Virginia Tech is in trouble. After sneaking into most people’s early NCAA Tournament brackets based on an uninspiring schedule, the Hokies promptly lost to Wake Forest to start conference play. Based on their offense at times against the Demon Deacons, the next game against Florida State could be even uglier. The bottom line is this is a must-win game for Seth Greenberg’s squad to silence critics and its own self-doubts. The same could actually be said for the Seminoles, so make sure to tune into ESPNU at 7:00 PM this evening.
Wake Forest has already matched its conference win total (one) from last season thanks to a 58-53 win over Virginia Tech (who was 11-3 coming into the game). The win is the Demon Deacons’ best in the last two seasons, as the only two power conference opponents they defeated last year was Big 10 doormat Iowa and a short-handed Virginia team. Last year, CJ Harris scored six points in the final two minutes to seal the deal as the Cavaliers went ice cold from the floor. This year Harris again proved the late-game hero against a different commonwealth squad, knocking down two huge threes to answer Virginia Tech’s first lead with just over a minute to play and the go-ahead bucket on the Demon Deacons’ final possession.
CJ Harris Shows Wake Might Have a Future After All (AP/C. Burton)
This game showed just how far Wake Forest has come since last season. Other than 15 seconds late in the second half, the Deacons never trailed. Every Virginia Tech run was answered by a big bucket from Travis McKie (in the first half), Tony Chennault (in the second half) or Harris (at the end of the game). The team certainly won’t stay at the top of the ACC for long; it struggles taking care of the ball, forcing turnovers and with shot selection. But the win shows just how far Jeff Bzdelik’s players have come since last year.
McKie, once the most consistent scorer on an awful team, now has the ability to control significant portions of the game with scoring and, at least against the Hokies, on the glass. Especially in the first half McKie scored in a variety of ways, excelling at getting to the basket in the halfcourt and transition. He also managed to pull down eight rebounds despite questionable rebounding for much of the season (he struggles to get in position on defense in particular). The ten pounds McKie reportedly gained over the summer also shows up in his greater confidence to take contact at the rim.
The NCAA released its first official RPI (ratings percentage index) standings. You’re probably already familiar with the RPI, but it’s really the most important ranking –despite being a skewed evaluator of a team’s success — because it’s what the NCAA Selection Committee relies on when evaluating teams for selection into the NCAA Tournament. The RPI’s basic formula accounts for a team’s winning percentage (25%), its opponents’ winning percentage (50%) and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (25%). It also takes into account home and away (which it bluntly multiplies by 1.4 (for a home loss or road win) or 0.6 (for a home win or road loss). This makes the rating very favorable to good mid-major teams that play lots of nonconference road games against good opponents. A savvy BCS-conference coach can also manipulate the rating by playing some of these mid-major darlings at home or a neutral site.
Duke Occupies the ACC's Top Spot in the First RPI from the NCAA
Regardless of its inadequacies, the RPI is hugely important for Selection Sunday. Selection Committee members know and trust the RPI, even if Ken Pomeroy’s or Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are considered better evaluators of a team’s success. The important categories of the RPI are top-25, top-50 and top-100. Wins against the top-25 are gold; losses usually don’t hurt too much. Wins against the top-50 are critical (barring a very, very good record) for an NCAA tournament-worthy profile and a few losses won’t kill you. Wins against teams out of the top-100 are mandatory and losses to said teams should be avoided at all costs.
Now let’s look at the five most likely ACC teams to make the Big Dance: Duke (#2 in the RPI), North Carolina (#10), Virginia Tech (#38) and Virginia (#56).
