Friday Figures: Big 12 NCAA Tournament Chances, TCU’s Rough Start & Texas Goes Big

Posted by Chris Stone on January 12th, 2018

Friday Figures is back with a look at some of the various statistical trends in the Big 12. This week we’ll dive into how many teams can make the NCAA Tournament with a losing conference record, TCU’s disparate start on offense and defense, and Texas’ move to a super-sized lineup.

The Big 12 is going to put the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee in a strange spot. As the calendar ticks towards March and bracketology posts populate the web, the question of how many Big 12 teams will make the field of 68 should be a fun one. The safest bet is on six teams in, while the most ambitious estimate suggests eight entrants. Either way, the league could put the committee in a weird position if KenPom’s conference projections hold in place. Right now, just four teams — Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia — are projected to finish the regular season with Big 12 winning percentage of .500 or above. Four additional schools — Baylor, Kansas State, TCU and Texas — are lumped together at 8-10. Why’s that interesting? Since the Big 12 took on its current incarnation in the 2012-13 season, just five teams from the country’s top six conferences have made the NCAA Tournament with a losing league record. Three of those have come from the Big 12 and two hailed from the Big Ten. No ACC, Big East, SEC or Pac-12 teams have made the Dance with a losing record in that time frame. If these projections hold, the Selection Committee could be forced the push that number quite a bit higher.

Source: KenPom

TCU’s Big 12 start is awfully unique. The Horned Frogs are out to an inauspicious 1-3 start in league play with their lone win coming over Baylor in overtime. The optimist among us will point out that their three losses came by a combined six points. The pessimist will instead point to the above chart, which plots every Big 12 teams’ offensive and defensive efficiency from conference play dating back to 2012-13. The two circled points? On the right, 2017-18 TCU. On the left, the 2013-14 TCU squad that went 0-18 in conference play. The link between them? Poor defense. These Horned Frogs would rank as the second worst defense in the Big 12 of the last six seasons, second — by just 0.1 points per 100 possessions — to the group that won a grand total zero games in league play. While it appears head coach Jamie Dixon has resolved the offensive issues that plagued the 2013-14 team, he’ll need to work some magic on the defensive end for TCU to live up to its new expectations.

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A Quick Look at the Big 12’s Opening Weekend

Posted by Brian Goodman on December 29th, 2017

It’s not very often that the performance of a single conference as a whole is extensively discussed before the start of league play, but the manner in which the Big 12 asserted itself over the first six weeks of the 2017-18 season was nothing short of impressive. Nine of the conference’s 10 teams are ranked among the top 50 of KenPom‘s current rankings, and no team took more losses than Texas‘ three (of which two came in overtime against very good Duke and Gonzaga teams). In fact, the league finished non-conference play by ripping off 27 straight victories. Yes, there were some cupcakes in there, but there were also road and semi-road meetings against teams like Wichita State, Florida State and Nebraska. It’s gotten to the point where there’s been reasoned discussion on this site and others of the Big 12 sending 80 percent of its membership to the NCAA Tournament come March. Even if an underperforming team squelches that possibility, this conference will have meaningful games practically every night from now until March, beginning with tonight’s action. Here’s a quick look at each of the weekend’s five games.

Kansas remains the Big 12 favorite, but its competition is tougher than ever. (AP)

  1. West Virginia at Oklahoma State (Friday 7:00 ET, ESPNU) – The Cowboys project as one of the league’s worst teams, but West Virginia is just a 3.5-point favorite, which should tell you something about the Big 12’s parity and the intense challenge that the road represents this season, no matter the gym. Since installing the press prior to the 2014-15 season, Bob Huggins has not lost in Stillwater, and I expect that to continue tonight. Oklahoma State’s 10-2 start in the wake of Brad Underwood’s unexpected departure is a nice story, but the Cowboys are lacking in the three key areas needed to get the best of the Mountaineers: Ball control (117th nationally), defensive rebounding (174th) and drawing fouls (291st). Those will have to change if the Cowboys are to pull the upset.
  2. Baylor at Texas Tech (Friday 8:00 ET, Fox Sports Regional) – The Red Raiders stunned the Bears in Lubbock last season to give then-first year head coach Chris Beard a big home win. Three Baylor players fouled out of that game, which saw Texas Tech head to the foul line 43 times over the course of the night. That probably won’t be the case this time around, as Baylor ranks second in the country in foul avoidance. It also means that Texas Tech will need to find a fallback plan quickly if Baylor’s zone keeps Keenan Evans, Zach Smith and Zhaire Smith from attacking the rim as effectively as they have to this point in the season. Read the rest of this entry »
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Ten Questions to Consider: Christmas Weekend

Posted by Matt Eisenberg on December 22nd, 2017

Other than the eight teams participating in the Diamond Head Classic, there will be a three-day break from action beginning on Sunday. Here are 10 things to watch while binging to basketball and Christmas carols on Friday and Saturday.

Texas Is a Tough Team to Figure Out (USA Today Images)

  1. How concerned should Texas be with its offense? Texas currently ranks among the bottom 20 nationally in both three-point and free-throw percentage, is 141st in adjusted offensive efficiency, and only one Big 12 team since the 2006-07 season has finished conference play with both a winning record and offense outside the top 100 (2014 Kansas State).
  2. Will the third time be the charm for Northern Iowa? Northern Iowa and Xavier met twice in a span of six days last season with the Musketeers handily winning both games. Xavier held Northern Iowa to 32.7 percent shooting on two-point attempts while forcing the Panthers’ third- and fourth-worst turnover rates last season. The one thing going for Northern Iowa? Xavier has only played one true road game so far this season (a win at Wisconsin).
  3. What will Trae Young do next? Oklahoma’s Trae Young is coming off of a 26-point, 22-assist game against Northwestern State earlier this week. The sensational freshman guard currently leads the country in both points and assists per game, and no player has finished among the top 10 nationally in both categories dating back to the 2001-02 season. Only five players have finished among the top ten in scoring and top 20 in assists over that same time period. What’s next?
  4. Has Marshall’s Dan D’Antoni found his Steve Nash? Under Dan D’Antoni, Marshall has consistently been one of the fastest-paced teams in college basketball. The high-octane offense is led by Jon Elmore. Elmore, like Oklahoma’s Young, currently ranks among the top 10 nationally in both points and assists per game. Elmore’s 23.5 PPG could see an uptick as well, as he is currently shooting a lousy 25.7 percent from three-point range — nearly 10 percent lower than his first two years at Marshall. Read the rest of this entry »
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The Good, the Bad & the Ugly: Big Ten Running Out of Non-Conference Chances

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on December 15th, 2017

Michigan’s 59-52 win at Texas on Tuesday was important for the Big Ten, and not just because it could use some respect after taking a beating in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Rather, the road victory was big because it helps provide some much-needed heft to the league’s overall non-conference resume. With several bad losses under its belt and an underachieving middle tier, the Big Ten needs every quality win it can get before for turning on itself in conference play.

Iowa, like several Big Ten teams, has struggled during non-conference play. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)

The Good. As of Thursday, the Big Ten has eight teams ranked in both the KenPom and Sagarin top 50, which suggests there is some depth of quality in the league. In fact, Michigan State and Purdue rank second and third overall in the latter ranking system. Although the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) remains the most widely-referenced metric, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has been increasingly influenced by advanced metrics in recent years. The more teams viewed favorably by advanced analytical tools, the more opportunities for quality intra-conference wins in the committee’s view. What’s more, the league does have a few quality non-conference true road wins to its name. Minnesota beat Providence (KenPom #52) by double-figures in the Dunkin’ Donuts Center. Purdue pounded Marquette (KenPom #52). Michigan topped them both by upending Texas this week (KenPom #31). According to reports last summer, the committee will be “placing greater emphasis on winning road games.” Victories like these — on the road against NCAA Tournament-caliber opponents — will go a long way towards boosting the the Big Ten’s overall profile.

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Morning Five: 12.15.17 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on December 15th, 2017

morning5

  1. We were surprised to hear that Charlotte had fired Mark Price yesterday morning partly because we had almost forgotten that he was coaching there and that it is still so early in the season. It turns out we weren’t the only ones who felt the same way as Price also was reportedly stunned (presumably just for the firing part) by the sudden announcement. The former Georgia Tech great finished with a 30-42 record in a little over 2 seasons including a 3-6 start this year. The firing might not be that surprising given Price’s record since we still consider Charlotte a decent program, but they haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2005 so we aren’t exactly sure what they are planning on doing with the extra three months searching for a coach.
  2. Louisville isn’t a top 25 team right now, but they still manage to make plenty of headlines. The two most recent stories are its counterclaim to Rick Pitino‘s suit and meeting with the NCAA to appeal the sanctions levied against them for the escort scandal (you know, the scandal before the FBI one). The first story is interesting because it is a response to Pitino’s claim that he is owed $38.7 million by the school. The school has responded by suing Pitino for money they are having to repay for NCAA Tournament appearances as well as bonuses paid to Pitino for those wins and other associated bonuses. Like we said before, the only people who are going to get rich off this are the lawyers. The latter story is essentially the school begging the NCAA to let it off without taking away its NCAA title and a host of other penalties that they probably don’t care about as much.
  3. Texas was off to a decent start in the third year of the Shaka Smart era going 6-2 with its only losses coming to Duke and Gonzaga, but was dealt a fairly significant setback on Monday when it announced that Andrew Jones, its leading scorer at 15.3 points per game, was expected to miss several games with a fracture in his right wrist. It is unclear when Jones, who sustained the injury at the end of a win over VCU, will come back, but it is not expected to be a season-ending injury. If he is out an extended period of time, the Longhorns will need to find another scoring option as they lost the first game of his absence, 59-52 at home against Michigan
  4. We aren’t sure why Villanova does not get the same media attention of other top-tier programs (maybe it is the result of having its games stuck on a network that routinely features teams from schools we have never heard of), but you could argue that they have been one of the top five programs in the country over the past five seasons even when you factor in the three second-round exits sandwiched around its 2016 title. Perhaps that is why players like Mikal Bridges tend to go under the radar for all, but the college basketball diehards. As Dan Greene notes, that might not be an issue much longer for Bridges as he has quietly transformed himself into lottery pick. It will be interesting to see who becomes the go-to-guy for Villanova (Bridges or Jalen Brunson) as the season goes on. Before the year started, we would have said Brunson without hesitation, but now it might not be that clear.
  5. We hadn’t really thought about the case of former Yale basketball player Jack Montague, who was expelled in 2016 for sexual misconduct, since he left the school, but his name resurface this week with the news that he had enrolled at Belmont. Montague, who was the captain of the team, was expelled for an incident that occurred in 2014 in which he claims that he did not hear that the woman asked him to stop. He is suing the school to reinstate him and allow him to complete his degree as he claims that the woman’s complaint was the result of a Title IX officer coercing her to file the complaint. Montague used up all of his eligibility so he won’t be playing for the Bruins, but his admission has led to quite a bit of controversy on campus with several individuals questioning whether he should be admitted to the school.
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Three Lessons From PK80 Day One

Posted by RJ Abeytia on November 24th, 2017

My first day at the PK80 Tournament in Portland took place exclusively in the venerable Veterans Memorial Coliseum, where Bill Walton’s Blazers used to run roughshod, where the Showtime Lakers endured many a battle, and where Michael Jordan’s Bulls crushed the hopes of Clyde Drexler’s Blazers. It was amazing to watch a game in what was once considered a state-of-the-art NBA arena but now stands as a relic, but make no mistake: There were lessons to be learned with many future implications when it comes to the here and now in college basketball in The Rose City’s basketball nexus.

Duke is Led by Grayson Allen But Its Most Impressive Attributes are in the Frontcourt (USA Today Images)

  1. Duke’s Frontcourt is Massive. The physical realities of Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter are by far the most impressive part of watching the Blue Devils play live. Yes, that size was accentuated by the lack thereof on the part of Portland State, but the two combined for 34 points on 13-of-20 shooting and 25 rebounds. Both are very athletic and graceful. Bagley even brought the ball up to help alleviate pressure in the backcourt several times. On the other hand, Bagley’s 6-of-12 from the free throw line certainly warrants monitoring and Grayson Allen’s emotional stability continues to be a coin flip from play to play, but if you are looking for reasons Duke can win the NCAA Tournament before December begins, look no further than the 6’11” 234-lb. Bagley and the 6’10” 259-lb. Carter. Duke isn’t going to face many teams (elite or Portland State-level) that can handle the inside talent the Blue Devils bring to the table.
  2. Shaka Smart is Building at Texas.  After a year two cratering that Smart warned Texas was part of the plan, the Longhorns notched a hard-earned win over mentally-taxing Butler on Thanksgiving. Texas is likely a year away from really competing on the national level, but the Longhorns showcased impressive perimeter talent like Andrew Jones and size from the likes of Mohamed Bamba. Jones had 16 points on efficient 7-of-13 shooting and Bamba logged 12 rebounds and six blocks. The Bulldogs were able to impose its standard low-possession game on Texas, but the Longhorns maximized their transition opportunities to the tune of a 14-2 fast break point advantage that provided the winning margin. Texas has the kind of balance and depth in the frontcourt that make for a very tough draw in Big 12 play and beyond. Assistant coaches scouting from the stands noted some of the finer points as well, like the Longhorns’ help discipline on defense. Texas is a team to watch moving forward, and their brawl with Duke today is a great early litmus test for both teams.
  3. Florida MOVES.  The #7 Gators demolished Stanford with a staggering barrage of 68 percent three-point shooting that featured a scorching 13-of-17 first-half start that included a perfect 5-of-5 from distance by Egor Koulechov. But again, the live impression may actually be more auspicious than the insane shooting performance. Florida rushes the ball upcourt like its hair is on fire. There was one possession where off a made basket, point guard Chris Chiozza already had the Gators in their offense with the shot clock at 29 seconds and an open three look at 26 seconds. Florida’s average possession time was 14 seconds (which KenPom rates as the 12th-fastest in the country) and its blistering 135.0 ORtg over its 80 possessions made for a painful clinic for Stanford. Identity matters in college basketball, and Michael White’s team has already clearly embraced theirs this season.
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Five Big 12 Feast Week Storylines to Watch

Posted by Brian Goodman on November 20th, 2017

Feast Week is here, and with it comes the first chance for many Big 12 teams to see how they stack up against legitimate competition. The storylines around the league haven’t evolved significantly over the season’s first two weeks, but in case you need a primer, here’s a quick breakdown on what to watch for as you gorge yourself on college hoops and turkey this week.

Baylor will need Jo Lual-Acuil’s intensity this week in Kansas City. (Tom Pennington/Getty)

  1. Will Baylor assert its will on the offensive glass against Wisconsin? The Bears were the third-best team in college basketball at rebounding their own misses last season and are off to a strong start again this year — logging an offensive rebounding rate of 41.3 percent through their first three wins. Wisconsin, however, is a different animal than the likes of Central Arkansas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Alcorn State, rebounding 83.5 percent of its opponents’ tries. Baylor’s offense has been very efficient in the first week-plus, but the Bears’ big men have effectively gone unchallenged inside. Ethan Happ and Andy Van Vliet bring an element of size that Baylor has yet to face, so outlasting the Badgers on the glass will be vital in this rematch from the 2014 Sweet Sixteen.
  2. How will Matt Coleman fare in facilitating Texas’ offense? The freshman point guard has brought some much-needed stability to Texas’ backcourt, dishing out 10 assists against just one turnover over 74 minutes across the Longhorns’ first three games. Still, Shaka Smart’s club ranks among the bottom 25 schools nationally in assists per field goal. Coleman’s distributing ability wasn’t needed in Saturday’s blowout win over Lipscomb, but it’s going to be a different story in Portland this week when the Longhorns face Butler and potentially Duke. Read the rest of this entry »
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Friday Figures: Big 12 Trends Worth Watching

Posted by Chris Stone on November 17th, 2017

Welcome to Friday Figures, a new weekly column where we’ll look at some interesting statistics from around the Big 12. There will be charts, graphs and plenty of references to KenPom. Obviously it’s still early, so this week we’re going to dive into a trio of numbers worth tracking as the season progresses.

West Virginia’s true shooting attempts differential always looms large. Under the “Press Virginia” system, the Mountaineers’ offense has never been the most efficient from a shot-making perspective. Dating back to the 2014-15 season, West Virginia has ranked 292nd, 177th and 139th nationally in effective field goal percentage (per KenPom). So far this season, they rank 185th. But what West Virginia lacks in accuracy, it makes up for in sheer volume by creating extra shots with offensive rebounds and opponents’ turnovers. Last season, the gap between the Mountaineers’ true shooting attempts (TSAs), a formula which accounts for free throws as well as field goal attempts, and their opponents’ attempts, was the largest in the country at 11.3 per game.

Data source: Sports-Reference

Tracking that differential in TSAs on a game-by-game basis has been a pretty good way to figure out West Virginia’s chances of winning. The chart above plots every game the team has played since 2014-15 with losses marked in red. Notice how the presence of that color increases significantly when the differential falls below 10.0? In two games so far this season, the Mountaineers have experienced wildly different results. Against Texas A&M, they only took 1.2 more TSAs than the Aggies, but in a blowout win against American, that gap was 25.4. One was a 23-point loss while the other a 34-point win. If you’re tracking West Virginia’s box scores this season, simply observe the gap in field goal attempts and free throws versus the opponent and you will likely be able to figure out how the game is going.

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Big 12 Notebook: Opening Weekend

Posted by Brian Goodman on November 13th, 2017

Most of the Big 12 started its season with resounding victories over the weekend, but the two exceptions were certainly glaring as they came in matchups that pitted teams against programs from other power conferences. After a solid start to the game, West Virginia completely fell apart against Texas A&M on Friday night in Germany. Back in America, Iowa State got much more than it bargained for when the Cyclones agreed to play a very different Missouri program a year ago as the Tigers soundly defeated their old conference foe in Columbia. Elsewhere around the league, two heralded recruits got their first tastes of Division I action and did not disappoint. Here are the three items that stuck out the most over the Big 12’s opening weekend.

1. West Virginia falls flat against Texas A&M.

Texas A&M handled West Virginia’s press with ease on Friday night. (Michael Probst/AP)

When the Mountaineer press is working and they’re crashing the offensive glass, West Virginia is incredibly tough to beat. This is not a new development, but it’s worth a reminder as the season tips off, because when they don’t do either of those things, it’s a very different story as we saw on Friday night. In an 88-65 blowout loss to Texas A&M, the Mountaineers generated turnovers on just 23 percent of the Aggies’ possessions and rebounded their own misses just 23 percent of the time. Disappointing results on those two fronts put the pressure on Bob Huggins‘ half-court offense to produce, but any chance of that was snuffed out by Billy Kennedy’s switch to a zone defense midway through the first half. Combine all of that with big shooting nights from the Aggies’ Admon Gilder (4-of-6 3FG) and JJ Hogg (4-of-5 3FG) and there was just too much to overcome. Huggins mentioned earlier this month that he may pull back on the press in spots, citing the team’s changing roster, and with the Mountaineers facing a relatively lax schedule over the next couple weeks, don’t be surprised if he utilizes those opportunities to do a little tinkering.

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Big 12 Burning Questions: Texas Longhorns

Posted by Brian Goodman on November 6th, 2017

This preview is part of RTC’s Big 12 2017-18 preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Will Texas ride the additions of Mo Bamba and Matt Coleman to an at-large bid?

Last Thanksgiving had barely passed when it became clear that something wasn’t right with Texas basketball. The young Longhorns were supposed to get back on track after losing two games to Northwestern and Colorado in the Legends Classic, but instead of licking their wounds and coming out with fire in their next home outing, they were embarrassed by Texas-Arlington. Bad games happen, certainly, and the Mavericks went on to win the Sun Belt last season, but considering the resources at Texas’ disposal and its accomplished coach patrolling the sideline, there was no excuse for such an effort. We all know how things went from there: The Longhorns tried unsuccessfully to play the entire season without a legitimate point guard, ultimately finishing dead last in the Big 12 standings despite having a first-round pick on the blocks in Jarrett Allen. Shaka Smart certainly isn’t on the hot seat in Austin on the heels of one forgettable season, but now that his team has been restocked with a level of talent that he didn’t have in his first two campaigns, it’s time for him to produce.

All eyes will be on Mo Bamba, but Texas needs more than just him to avenge a woeful 2017. (Brian Spurlock/USA Today)

Freshman center Mo Bamba will definitely help, perhaps as much as a one-and-done player can to change the direction of a program. There’s no player in the Big 12 who can match Bamba’s physical gifts of a 7’9″ wingspan on a 6’11” frame, and with great agility to match. He can block shots, run the floor, finish down low and face up his man in space. Allen and Cameron Ridley before him had their legitimate big man strengths, but Bamba provides a completely different skill set. In high school, he was able to produce offensively with his sheer athleticism, but how he develops his game in the face of more physical Division I competition will be worth monitoring. Additionally, Bamba’s presence on the roster may lead Smart to revive his patented “Havoc” defensive system now that he has a center who can get up and down the court. Read the rest of this entry »

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