Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Conference Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies

The top half of the conference has separated clearly from the lower half, despite a number of upsets over the last two weeks. Temple, lurking in the ranking just below the top, emerged as the top team according to the offensive-defensive differential. The statistics apparently provide a numeric affirmation to the AP pollsters at last. It is reassuring to find that the eyeball test and the numbers agree, Dayton notwithstanding. George Washington appears to have joined Dayton as an unlucky team; Pythagoras (based on conference games only) projects a .500 record for the Colonials, a development that if true, should come as very bad news for the Owls (and good news for Xavier). Saint Joseph’s and Fordham have separated from the rest of the conference, settling at the bottom with rather large negative differentials. La Salle sports a record similar to Saint Joseph’s, but their differential suggests this may be more a case of bad luck, than bad defense. This is a good illustration of how the won-loss record tend to more accurately reflect the loss of seniors Ruben Guillandeaux and Kimmani Barrett than the differentials. The differentials are slow to reflect significant (and rapid) changes in personnel (among other game-influencing factors), a fact frequently overlooked. In La Salle’s case, Pomeroy, using a calculation which also relies on cumulative statistical data, continues to project the Explorers as winners in one of their two remaining games. To the observer this may seem to be unjustifiably optimistic, but the rumored collapse of morale on Hawk Hill may eventually make Pomeroy’s projection correct. Right record, wrong opponent.

The Last Week

The teams are down to their last one-to-two games before Atlantic City. The Richmond-Xavier game eliminated Richmond from contention for the #1 seed. Temple can take the #1 spot by winning out. Xavier will take the #2 seed (unless the Musketeers lose both of their remaining games), and Richmond should take the #3 seed (though if the Spiders stumble very badly their fall could scramble seeds #3 through #7). George Washington, Duquesne and St. Bonaventure are locked in a three-way tie for eighth place, but the head-to-head game between St. Bonaventure and Duquesne should drop the loser to the bottom of that cluster (unless Massachusetts puts on a closing rush). The winner is not, however, guaranteed the #8 seed. La Salle and Saint Joseph’s are also tied (for twelfth place), but their season-closing game should settle the seed, and other issues.

Standings (as of 03/02/2010)

1. Temple (12-2, 24-5, #16 AP)
2. Xavier (12-2, 21-7, #25 AP)
3. Richmond (11-3, 22-7)
4. St. Louis (10-4, 19-9)
5. Charlotte (9-5, 19-9)
6. Rhode Island (8-6, 20-7)
7. Dayton (8-6, 19-9)
8. George Washington (6-8, 16-11)
9. Duquesne (6-8, 15-13)
10. St. Bonaventure (6-8, 13-14)
11. Massachusetts (4-10, 10-18)
12. La Salle (3-11, 11-17)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-11, 9-19)
14. Fordham (0-14, 2-14)

Team Rundowns

• Charlotte.  February was a cruel month for Coach Lutz and the 49ers. They closed the books for the month going 3-4, and 1-4 in their last five games. They opened the month at the top of the conference and very much in the dicussion for an NCAA bid, but they have fallen to #5 in the conference and among Zach Hayes’ “Next Four Out”. Their last two games will not be easy, as both come against conference rivals who compete directly for seeds #3 through #6. First they travel to New England for a game at Rhode Island on Wednesday (3/3). The Rams, ranked #6 in the conference this week, are listed among the “Last Four Out”. The loser will most likely fall off the bubble. Their regular season final versus Richmond (currently #3 in conference standings) provides the 49ers with an opportunity to wreak a little havoc. Should Charlotte sweep both games they will find themselves in a two or three way tie for the #3 seed. Lose both and they will most likely draw the #7 seed.
• Dayton.  The Flyers started the week with a big (but hardly unexpected) 49-41 loss at Temple. The low score hints at a defensive struggle, which indeed it was. The pace, about 60 for each team, is low for D1 (the average, per Ken Pomeroy, is 67.5), but certainly enough possessions had the teams played to their offensive ratings for a score in the mid-to-high 60s. The Flyers did manage 45 rebounds (against 41 points) and about 0.67 points per possession on offense. The rebounds were overwhelmingly defensive — the Flyers snagged 75% of Temple’s misses, but only 28% of their own. Dayton took their revenge on the Minutemen 96-68, on Saturday (2/27). Tied at sixth in conference with an 8-6 record, the Flyers have opportunities to improve their conference tournament seed and, listed as one of “The Last Four Out” by Zach Hayes (and among the #1 seeds by NIT-ology), to work their way back into the field of 65. Dayton travels to Richmond for a Thursday (3/4) game, then back to Dayton to close the season versus St. Louis. Both teams are higher in the conference pecking order, so a Flyer sweep could scramble the tournament seeds (#3 through #7) going into Atlantic City.
• Duquesne.  Duquesne lost their only game last week, a 69-59 road loss to St. Louis, on Saturday (2/27). The Dukes are in a three-way tie with St. Bonaventure and George Washington, for the eighth seed in the conference tournament. Should they sweep their last two games, at rival St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (3/3) and a home closer against Fordham on Friday (3/5), Duquesne can square their conference record at eight, and secure the #8 seed in Atlantic City. Lose both, and the Dukes could fall to #10.
• Fordham.  The Rams dropped their only game last week, and the prospects for a winless conference run loom larger. Ken Pomeroy’s projection moved up to 94%, and with a home game versus Xavier next, the road closer at Duquesne is most likely their last best chance.
• George Washington.  The Colonials ran off two wins last week, an 81-72 win over a staggering La Salle squad, and 75-70 win that hurt Charlotte’s postseason prospects rather badly. At 6-8, George Washington is playing for seed, specifically #8, at the conference tournament. They have a harder road than Duquesne, but easier than St. Bonaventure, as they play Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (3/3) and Temple on the road Saturday (3/6).
• La Salle.  The Explorers ran their losing streak to eight with losses last week to George Washington 81-72, on Wednesday (2/24) and Temple (for the second time) 65-53, on Sunday (2/28). They have two more games left before they head into Atlantic City (as either a #12 or #13 seed) and close the book on this season. They host Massachusetts on Wednesday (3/3), then close out their Big 5 series with a game at Saint Joseph’s on Saturday (3/6) in a game that will most likely decide the fourth place team in the Big 5 series and the #11 through #13 seeds in Atlantic City. Temple wins it outright this year with a 4-0 record. Villanova finishes second with a 3-1 record, while La Salle and Saint Josephs’s both have a 1-2 record going into their last game. Penn finishes last with an 0-4 record.  If the Explorers can salvage anything from this season, it may be a win over cross city rival Saint Joseph’s.
• Massachusetts.  The Minutemen dropped their only game last week 96-68 on the road to Dayton. They finish out the regular season with a last road trip to Philadelphia on Wednesday (3/3) to take on La Salle, then return home to close the regular season against Rhode Island on Saturday (3/6). Lose to La Salle, and Massachusetts drops into an 11th-place tie with La Salle. Unfortunately for Massachusetts, they lose that particular tiebreaker. Though Rhode Island dropped a late season game to St. Bonaventure last week, the chances they drop a second late season upset is probably very small.
• Rhode Island.  Their loss to St. Bonaventure 81-74 on Saturday (2/27) was unexpected and a case of very inconvenient timing. The Rams have little time and opportunity to “get that one back.” The Rams have two games left — a home game versus Charlotte on Wednesday (3/3) and a road closer in Amherst, MA, on Saturday (3/6). The Charlotte game has both conference tournament seed and postseason implications. Though both teams are considered, by consensus, out of the field of 65, the winner will most likely remain on the bubble, pending conference play and the state of the field at the end of next week.
• Richmond.  The Spiders took a very tough road loss in Cincinnati on Sunday (2/28). Their game with Xavier went to two overtimes before they lost by two points, 78-76. The loss cost them not only the #1 seed in the conference tournament, but it also dropped them out of the AP’s Top 25 poll, Xavier moving into it in their stead. Coach Mooney’s squad has two more games, nearly as difficult, before Atlantic City. The first is a home game with Dayton on Thursday (3/4); the second is a road game at Halton Arena, with Charlotte, on Saturday (3/6). Should the Spiders sweep they will secure their spot in the conference tournament (and the NCAA’s field of 65), but also burst both Dayton’s and Charlotte’s bubbles.
• Saint Joseph’s.  Saint Joseph’s losing streak has extended to five games with a road loss to Charlotte last Wednesday (2/24). The Hawks travel to DC to play George Washington on Wednesday (3/3), in a game they are expected (according to Ken Pomeroy) to lose. They close out regular season play by hosting La Salle in a game that will close out both school’s conference play and their Big 5 series play. Tied with La Salle, both in the conference (3-11) and in the City Series (1-2), the Saturday game will determine who gets the #12 (and #13) seed in Atlantic City and who finishes #3 (and #4) in the Philadelphia City Series.
• St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies sprung an upset on Rhode Island 81-74, on Saturday (2/27), extending their winning streak to three games, matching the longest winning streak of their 2010 season. Coach Schmidt’s squad reached their 2009 conference win total with two games in hand. Wednesday (3/3) they host Duquesne, probably their best opportunity for win number seven. A win over Duquesne would provide a temporary advantage for the #9 seed in the conference tournament, they close out the regular season with a road game in Cincinnati, versus Xavier, on Saturday (3/6).
• St. Louis.  Coach Majerus’ team notched their only loss in February when they dropped a 73-71 decision to Xavier, on Wednesday (2/24). They closed February with a 7-1 record as they beat Duquesne 69-59, Saturday (2/27). St. Louis’ current record, 19-9, is a decided improvement over last season, but the Billikens will be hard pressed to notch win number 20 before Atlantic City, as they host Temple Wednesday (3/3), then take to the road to close the regular season at Dayton on Saturday (3/6).
• Temple.  The Owls had a good week, beating Dayton 49-41, in a defensive tug-of-war, on Wednesday (2/24), then clinching the Big 5 title outright with a 4-0 record, by beating La Salle 65-53, on Sunday (2/28). The Owls moved up to #16 in the AP poll on Monday and, by consensus, is projected as a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Coach Dunphy’s squad has two more games in the conference regular season. They travel to St. Louis to play the Billikens on Wednesday (3/3), then return home to close out the season by hosting George Washington on Saturday (3/6). The Billikens will be a good test for Temple. The game will most likely be a defensive struggle, though not on the “rock fight” style of the Temple-Dayton game last week. A second consecutive 2-0 week would put Temple’s winning streak at seven, and give the Owls a 9-1 “Last Ten” record going into Atlantic City.
• Xavier.  In a make-or-break week, the Musketeers and their rookie head coach came through with two close but necessary wins. They earned a #25 rank in the AP poll after beating a challenging St. Louis team 73-71, on the road Wednesday (2/24), and taking down the conference-leading Richmond Spiders 78-76, in a game that went into two overtimes, on Sunday (2/28). They have largely secured at least a #2 seed for Atlantic City, with the potential to move up should Temple stumble this week. With only a stricken Fordham squad on Wednesday (3/3) and a middle-of-the-pack St. Bonaventure team on Saturday (3/6) left on their schedule, Xavier, 9-1 in their last 10 games, is catching fire at the right time. They could sail into Atlantic City with a seven-game winning streak at their back.

Games to Catch

• Charlotte at Rhode Island – Wednesday 3/3 — Each team has inside and outside scorers who drive their offense — Shamari Spears, DiJuan Harris and Derrio Green for Charlotte versus Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran for Rhode Island. The “tie breaker” may well come down to their star freshmen, Akeem Richmond for Rhode Island and Chris Braswell for Charlotte. The 49ers and Rams took turns at the top of the conference back in January. The winner may be contention for the #4 seed and the last bye in the conference tournament and a place on the bubble for the NCAAs. The loser plays Tuesday night and gets the fast track to the NIT.
• Temple at St. Louis – Wednesday 3/3 — Temple’s last big road test in the conference this season. The Owls have virtually clinched a #1 or #2 seed in the conference tournament next week, but winning this game would give them a strong leg up for the top spot. St. Louis has been tough in Chaifetz Arena, going 14-2 this season. The Billikens are off the radar for the NCAA Tournament, the product of a young team and inconsistent run through their out of conference schedule, but a win here would turn a few heads, and give them some momentum going into Dayton (on Saturday) and then to Atlantic City.
• Dayton at Richmond – Thursday 3/4 — Dayton needs another good win to bolster their NCAA resume. Richmond, after a tough loss at Xavier on Sunday, needs a bounceback game to rebuild their momentum going into Atlantic City. The game will match two of the conference’s more deliberate (and efficient) offenses and best defenses. Dayton’s more athletic frontcourt could present some match-up problems for Richmond. On the other hand, which Flyer will draw Justin Harper as their defensive assignment?
• St. Louis at Dayton – Saturday 3/6 — Another weekend, and the conference-makers give Dayton another low possession, highly efficient offense to test the Flyers’ defense. If St. Louis comes in having taken a loss on Wednesday, while Dayton comes in having won on Thursday, a Dayton win would bring in the tie breaker rules to sort out seeds #4 and #5 (and maybe #6).

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Conference Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies

The efficiencies delineate the conference’s upper and lower division rather clearly…with one or two exceptions. Richmond, Temple and Xavier cluster clearly as top tier, consistent with, if not identical to, their conference records. Joining them as an outlier is Dayton, the team that entered the season with great expectations, but has fallen a bit short. St. Louis and Rhode Island form the next tier, with Charlotte next in line, but grouped with the lower division teams. Charlotte in particular is a paradox. The 49ers have had a number of very bad outings, particularly on the road (though in fairness they have had a good out of conference win on the road too). Charlotte has been a “better than average” team at home, but more a wimp than a warrior on the road. Among the lower division teams George Washington stands apart. The Colonials have, looking at all games this season, a surprisingly strong away efficiency differential, but a weaker than expected home differential. The differential suggests they should have a better record (by about 2 wins) than they do. Looking ahead, the Pythagorean winning percentage formula (conference games only) suggest the Colonials will sweep their remaining games. With closing games at Rhode Island and versus Richmond, I do not see a sweep as a likely outcome.

The Races Within the Race

The three-way (#1 & #2/#3 — Richmond and Temple/Xavier) race at the top of the conference represents only one of several heated standings races as the conference regular season enters it’s last two weeks. Rewards going to the winners of those mini-battles include seeds and pairings in Atlantic City, possible postseason invitations and for a few another opportunity or two to redeem irredeemable seasons. Just below the three leaders stand four teams battling it out for seeds #4 through #7. Theoretically St. Louis or Charlotte may be able to overcome one or more of the top tier teams, but their remaining schedules, loaded with fellow second tier opponents, makes those schedules seems less like a stepping stone and more like an elimination process. Charlotte has only one top tier team remaining, but must face an also hopeful Rhode Island team that would welcome every win it can gather at this point in the season. St. Louis still has Temple and Xavier to play, and as a bonus gets them both in the friendly confines of Chaifetz Arena. They also have to take to the road for their last game — Dayton, before heading out to Atlantic City. So the Billikens could hand another loss on both the Owls and the Musketeers, but still fall behind them by losing to Dayton. Should the Billikens lose either or both of those games, their season-closer in Dayton becomes even more important to both teams, as it could well be a battle that decides the #5, #6 and #7 seeds in the conference tournament. Fordham has largely lost contact with the rest of the conference, but George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Massachusetts and La Salle are all within a loss of each other in spots #8 through #11, with Saint Joseph’s just another loss (at 10) behind that cluster. Within that group only George Washington has a winning record, and an outside chance at a post season bid (NIT or CBI possibly). An inopportune losing would sink the Colonials. A late season surge by the Bonnies on the other hand, could put Coach Schmidt’s squad over the .500 mark, and lend promise to an otherwise very uneven season.

Standings as of – 02/23/10

1. Richmond (11-2, 22-6 #24 AP)
2. Temple (10-2, 22-5, #18 AP)
3. Xavier (10-2, 19-7)
4. St. Louis (9-3, 18-8)
5. Charlotte (8-4, 18-8)
6. Rhode Island (8-5, 20-6)
7. Dayton (7-5, 18-8)
8. Duquesne (6-7, 15-12)
9. George Washington (4-8, 14-11)
10. St. Bonaventure (4-8, 11-14)
11. Massachusetts (4-9, 10-17)
12. La Salle (3-9, 11-15)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-10, 9-18)
14. Fordham (0-13, 2-23)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

Charlotte lost two more games last week. The A10’s leader earlier this month has now dropped back to join Rhode Island and Dayton at the bottom of the upper division. The heretofore reliable Shamari Spears and Derrio Green have faltered, and with them, the 49ers’ fortunes. For the Dayton, Duquesne and Xavier games, the two players have taken 66%, 59% and 76% of the shots when they have been on the floor together. Having 40% of your rotation take 60% and more of your field goal attempts makes defense much easier. Having freshman Chris Braswell and junior An’Juan Wilderness (and virtually the rest of the squad as well) struggling offensively does not take the pressure to drive the offense off of Green and Spears. Rush the Court bracketologist Zach Hayes lists the 49ers among the last four out in his February 22 column.

If the turnaround is to happen for the 49ers, it will have to start this week. Charlotte will host Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (2/24) and travel to DC for a Saturday (2/27) game with George Washington. The homestretch includes games with Rhode Island and Richmond before taking off for Atlantic City and the conference tournament. Beating both the Hawks and Colonials will be necessary to stay ahead of Rhode Island, and keep Charlotte in position to move up should any of the top three (Richmond, Temple and Xavier) stumble at the end.

Dayton

The Flyers beat a crippled La Salle team Thursday (2/18) 68-54, but inexplicably dropped their road game with Duquesne 73-71, on Sunday (2/21). Three losses behind the conference leaders with four games to play means Coach Gregory’s team is nearly (mathematically) out of the race for the regular season conference title. They may still have games to play with Temple (Wednesday 2/24) and Richmond (Thursday 3/4), but at this point in the season, with their RPI drifting into the mid-high 40s, RTC’s Zach Hayes has them listed among the last four in with good reason.

Next up is Temple in Philadelphia on Wednesday (2/24) — a win would probably cinch their spot in the field of 65 — then a Saturday (2/27) home game with Massachusetts.

Duquesne

The Dukes decided to play spoiler last week, beating contenders Charlotte in Charlotte 83-77, on Wednesday (2/17), then returning to Pittsburgh to beat Dayton, 73-71 on Sunday (2/21). After a disappointing 2-5 in January, Coach Everhart’s squad has put together a 4-2 (and counting) February. The revival will not be enough to get them back into the postseason conversation, but they can force another squad or two to join them in an early off-season.

Duquesne has two road games this week. First stop is the also-hot St. Louis on Saturday (2/27), and then a trip to Olean, NY, for a tilt with St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (3/3).

Fordham

Two more games tallies to two more losses for Coach Grasso’s team. The Rams’ biggest challenge in the last four regular season games will be to find their first A10 win. The prognosis grows gloomier by the game; Pomeroy puts their probability of going winless at 78.5% as of Tuesday (2/23). Fordham’s last best chance comes quickly — St. Bonaventure, at Rose Hill, on Wednesday (2/24).

George Washington

The Colonials beat Massachusetts in DC 66-60 on Wednesday (2/17), but dropped their road game in a 74-70 squeaker, to Richmond on Saturday (2/20). GW is one loss out of a three-way tie for ninth place. With hope for life after Atlantic City largely reduced to the NIT (or CBI?), Coach Hobbs has to, in the back of his mind perhaps, look to what experience the underclassmen can get as preparation for next season. Freshman Lasan Kromah, co-winner of his third Rookie of the Week citation, has to be in the conversation for Rookie of the Year honors. Several sophomores have shown potential as well, so the nucleus may be in place for an upward move in 2011.

George Washington will host La Salle on Wednesday (2/24), and Charlotte on Saturday (2/27).

La Salle

Another week through which the crippled Explorers have to pass to get to the end of the season. The good news is no additions to the injured list. The bad news was two more losses.

Next up for the Explorers is a trip to DC and a game with George Washington on Wednesday (2/24) and home to host Temple in their Big 5 game on Sunday (2/21). The preseason expectation for the Temple-La Salle match was that this game would be an excellent game with which to close the City Series this season. La Salle’s casualty list has deferred the exciting matchup for another season perhaps.

Massachusetts

The Minutemen dropped two games last week, a 66-60 loss in DC to George Washington last Wednesday (2/17) and a 69-56 loss to St. Louis last Sunday (2/21). Coach Kellogg’s squad will travel to Dayton to take on the Flyers Saturday (2/27), then head into their last full week of play against La Salle and Rhode Island.

Rhode Island

Freshman Akeem Richmond shared Rookie of the Week honors (the second time he has been named) for averaging 19 points in the two games Rhode Island played last week. Unfortunately, the Rams finished the week 1-1, rather than 2-0. The loss, 62-57 to St. Louis last Wednesday (2/17), extended their losing streak to three. Their weekend 101-75 win over Fordham last Saturday (2/20).

Rhode Island travels to St. Bonaventure for a game Saturday (2/27) before taking on Charlotte and Massachusetts to close out the season.

Richmond

The Spiders moved up to #24 in the AP Top 25 this past Monday, as Coach Mooney’s squad continues to jockey with Temple and Xavier for top ranking in the conference. Richmond holds a half-game advantage by virtue of an additional win, but that should even out as the others complete their schedule. Adding to the honors, junior guard Kevin Anderson was recognized as co-player of the week for the second time. The announcement cited his 19-point effort against Fordham and his 24-point night against George Washington. Richmond’s efficiency differential has them ranked #3 in the conference, largely on their offense. The Spiders’ weakness is offensive rebounding, a statistic which suggests they have rebounded only 24% of their misses, the lowest rebounding margin in conference play. The lack of board presence (they are ranked #11 for defensive rebounding percentage, slightly better than their #16 ranking for ORebs) is a common feature in teams that employ perimeter-oriented offenses like the Princeton Offense favored by Coach Mooney. RTC bracketologist Zach Hayes moved Richmond up to a #6 seed, assigned to the Salt Lake City Region, in his February 22 column.

Richmond gets back to business this week with a game at Xavier on Sunday (2/28) and a last home game with Dayton on Thursday (3/4).

Saint Joseph’s

Saint Joseph’s losing streak has extended to four games with a two-loss week. The Hawks suffered a 38 point beating, 88-52, at the hands of Xavier in Cincinnati last Wednesday (2/17), and an overtime loss in their Big 5 game with Temple 75-67, on Saturday (2/20). For the Hawks and Coach Martelli, the opponent may well have become despair, rather than Big 5 or A10 opponents. Rumors on Hawk Hill have freshman guard Carl Jones mulling a transfer to USC in the off season. Jones, the brightest light in the 2010 entering class for Saint Joseph’s, would be the third guard in the last three seasons to transfer after his freshmen year.

The Hawks travel to Charlotte for a game Wednesday (2/24), then to DC for their last conference road game this season next Wednesday (3/3) with George Washington.

St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies lost to Temple 73-55, last Wednesday (2/17), but beat a staggering La Salle squad 77-66, on Sunday (2/21). The road win was promising, as the Bonnies have found the road not very kind at all this season. They have to run the table to level their conference record at 8-8, but a road game with Fordham on Wednesday (2/24) should, if all goes well, go down as their second consecutive road win, a promising sign going into Atlantic City (and next season). They return home to host Rhode Island, a one-time conference leader whose February record so far is a disappointing 3-3, on Saturday (2/27). Four wins in hand with a good chance for number five coming against Fordham leaves the Bonnies with three opportunities to notch number six, and match last season’s conference win total, and a possible ninth place finish.

St. Louis

Coach Majerus’ team beat Rhode Island 62-57, on Wednesday (2/17), which put another loss between Billikens and the Rams in conference play. Every loss (and win) counts. They ran their February winning streak to six on Sunday (2/21) with a road win, 69-56, at Massachusetts. Two more February games, Wednesday (2/24) they host top tiered Xavier and Saturday (2/27) they host and close out their mirror series with Duquesne. Winning both may well put St. Louis into the NCAA conversation, as Xavier would be a quality win. They are not on anyone’s radar at this point. St. Louis is 18-8 right now, even finishing the conference with a 2-2 run would give them 20 wins, an 11-5 conference record (along with, most likely, a four seed in the A10 Tournament) and life beyond Atlantic City (if not the NCAA, then the NIT or CBI). Given their ninth place, 18-14, 8-8 finish last season, this would be progress.

Temple

The Owls won both of their games last week pushing their conference record to 10-2 and keeping pace (in the loss column) with Richmond. They moved up to #21 in the AP poll, and continue to be listed as “in” Wednesday (2/17) they beat St. Bonaventure, 73-55, and then crossed town on Saturday (2/20) to Saint Joseph’s 75-67, and take their Big 5-designated game in overtime.

Coach Dunphy’s team will host Dayton on Wednesday (2/24) and close out their Big 5 series with a home game against La Salle on Sunday (2/28). Should the Owls beat the Explorers they would take their first outright Big 5 title in 14 seasons. Temple shared the title with Villanova in 2008 and 2005.

Xavier

The Musketeers jumped to the top of the efficiency differential with two strong, double digit wins last week. They beat Saint Joseph’s by 26 points 88-52, on Wednesday (2/17) and Charlotte by 14 points 81-67, on Saturday (2/20).

Xavier travels to St. Louis for an important game with St. Louis on Wednesday (2/24), then back to Cincinnati for a Sunday (2/28) game with rival Richmond. The Musketeers can finish either second (if they win) or third (if they lose).

Games to Catch

• Xavier at St. Louis – Wednesday 2/24 — The Billikens are challenging for one of the top three seeds at the A10 Tournament and some consideration for the NCAAs. The Musketeers have to win to keep pace with Richmond in the loss column, and keep their fate in their hands.
• Richmond at Xavier – Sunday 2/28 — Should Richmond win, the Spiders take the conference regular season title and the #1 seed in the A10 Tournament and Xavier comes in third. Should Xavier win, the Musketeers will finish second in the conference and take the #2 seed in the A10 Tournament, while the Spiders most likely finish third.
• Charlotte at Rhode Island – Wednesday 3/3 — This is a match between two NCAA bubble teams, in the A10’s in conference version of Bracket Buster Wednesday.

Joe Dzuback of Villanova By The Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Funky February

Maybe it is the weather, one of the more snow-filled winters in the last decade. Maybe it is the point in the season when teams that are good just exhale for a game or two, and teams that were supposed to be good take a hard look in the mirror and realize that something has to happen right now if their season is going to head somewhere other than the waste pile. If the conference is separating the top from the bottom, the top is getting crazy…

Dayton delivered their second consecutive take-down of a conference leader when they hammered the Charlotte 49ers 75-47, on Wednesday (2/10) night. Richmond spared the conference the conundrum of a five-way tie with barely a month left to the conference season when they dispatched Rhode Island (on the Rams’ home court no less), 69-67, earlier in the evening. Thursday dawned with four teams sporting (only) two conference losses, although technically Temple, with only seven wins, was not in a true tie with their three conference mates, Charlotte, Richmond and Xavier. Three more teams, Dayton, Rhode Island and St. Louis are just one loss behind the four leaders. Fully one-half of the conference is within striking distance of the conference title, and St. Louis excepted (maybe…), six appear regularly in postseason bracketology discussions. While it is remote — at best — to think all six will go to the NCAAs, I have begun to believe my projection of three teams was too light. The next two weeks will separate one or two teams from the top of the conference going into the A10’s postseason tournament.

Standings (as of 02/16/10)

1. Richmond (9-2, 20-6 #25 AP)
2. Temple (8-2, 2-05, #21 AP)
3. Xavier (8-2, 17-7)
4. Charlotte (8-2, 18-6)
5. St. Louis (7-3, 16-8)
6. Rhode Island (7-4, 19-5)
7. Dayton (6-4, 17-7)
8. Duquesne (4-7, 13-12)
9. Massachusetts (4-7, 10-15)
10. George Washington (3-7, 13-10)
11. La Salle (3-7, 11-13)
12. St. Bonaventure (3-7, 10-13)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-8, 9-16)
14. Fordham (0-11, 2-21)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

The 49ers have had their problems on the road this season, starting with the 101-59 drubbing they took in Cameron Indoor Stadium in their second game. After a nice seven-game winning streak through Christmas, Old Dominion rung their bell with a 30+ point beating. The Tennessee Volunteers booted them out of Knoxville with a 17 point loss and XU showed them the door with a 12-point loss in mid January. The 75-47 drubbing they took at the hands of Dayton on Wednesday (2/10), coming so close to the end of the season, might be the most damaging. The game was played at Dayton’s preferred pace (about 65 possessions), and Charlotte shot an abysmal 27% eFG% as Coach Lutz emptied his bench, running 14 players through the game to find someone who could hit a bucket.

The 49ers have had a week to think about that disaster, and will swing back into action Wednesday (2/17) as they host struggling Duquesne, followed by a Saturday (1/20) visit from Xavier.

Dayton

Dayton took care of Charlotte in resounding fashion, 75-47, on Wednesday (2/10). Having beaten both Xavier and Charlotte during their home stand, the Flyers seemed to have their season back on track. Against Charlotte, Chris Wright and Marcus Johnson stepped up to provide very efficient scoring, logging eFGs of 80% and 69% respectively while taking at least 30% of the shots when they were on the floor. Chris Johnson also had an efficient (if less prolific) night, logging an eFG% of 79% while taking about 18% of the available shots when he was on the floor. Their offense back on track, the Flyers took to the road and dropped their Saturday (2/13) game to St. Louis, 68-65. Small consolation that it took the Billikens two overtime periods to subdue the Flyers. And it is back into the middle of the pack for Dayton. The Flyers continue to lead the conference in efficiency differential (see table above), but that efficiency is not consistently translating into wins. Coach Gregory’s squad may be the unluckiest in the conference, but that will not win them any awards (or get them a postseason NCAA bid). They need victories, the kind that show up in the win column. They are one of the strongest teams in the country in rebounding, but they turn the ball over too much (ranked according to Ken Pomeroy at #219 in D1) and foul too much (ranked #268). Both of those deficiencies will kill a team in a close game.

The Flyers host La Salle Thursday (2/18) then travel to Pittsburgh to play Duquesne on Sunday (2/21). Both are should-wins for Dayton, as are their two remaining home games after this week. If Dayton is to make a run at the top of the conference (and back into the NCAA conversation), they need to take one (or both) of their road games the following week, at Temple (2/24) and Richmond (3/04). Their four good (RPI) wins will carry weight with the Selection Committee, but finishing #7 in the conference (where they currently stand) will only guarantee them a poor drawing in the A10’s Atlantic City tournament.

Duquesne

The Dukes are down to a run in Atlantic City to pull out their season. More realistically, Coach Everhart might want to look to next season and where he will find a replacement for senior Damian Saunders. Duquesne dropped an overtime game, 84-80, to Massachusetts last Thursday (2/11), then trounced a crippled La Salle team, 103-82, on Sunday (2/14). Duquesne’s defense is (according to Ken Pomeroy) comparable to a number of tournament-bound teams. Duquesne’s offense, however, will keep the Dukes out of postseason play. And the most glaring part of their offense is scoring from beyond the arc, where their accuracy (3FG% 26%…no that’s not a typo) has them ranked #347 (dead last) in Division 1. Three of the Dukes’ four most prolific three-point shooters have accuracies of less than 26%. And the fourth (senior Jason Duty) hits at a 33% rate. It might be time to give sophomore BJ Montiero more playing time and exposure to big game situations.

Duquesne ventures into Halton Arena Wednesday (2/17) for a game with Charlotte, then returns home to host Dayton on Sunday (2/21).

Fordham

The Rams dropped a road game, 72-61, to St. Bonaventure last Wednesday (2/10) followed by a 25-point home loss to Massachusetts (78-53) on Saturday (2/13). Ken Pomeroy now pegs the probability for a winless conference season at 76%. While there is a very small probability that Fordham will break their run next week — road games with Richmond Wednesday (2/17) and Rhode Island Saturday (2/20) — an upset would definitely, given Fordham’s #299 RPI, damage either Richmond’s or Rhode Island’s postseason prospects. Better opportunities lie ahead, with games against St. Bonaventure on the 24th and Duquesne on March 6.

George Washington

In a season with more than a few disappointments, getting some recognition for your players, like having Dwayne Smith named Rookie of the Week (cited for scoring a season-high 15 points in 15 minutes of play against Fordham), is one of those pleasures left in the season. They may have a good run in the conference tournament, but short of running the table, a postseason beyond Atlantic City is off the table. Coach Hobbs will lose Damian Hollis, a senior, but should have Lasan Kromah (another freshman who earned Rookie of the Week honors this season) and the next five scorers back next season, and hopefully they will be a year better. The Colonials maintained a better than average defense in conference play. Lack of a consistent offense has been their downfall.

George Washington will host Massachusetts on Wednesday (2/17), and travel to Richmond to close out their mirror series with the Spiders on Saturday (2/20).

La Salle

Another week, another bite out of the rotation. The 2010 season, projected as the season that would see the Explorers return to postseason play (NCAA or NIT) has become instead a Trail of Tears, as senior Yves Mekongo Mbala broke a finger in his shooting hand during practice on 2/8, and had surgery to repair it on 2/12. While the doctors predict a two-to-four week convalescence, anyone with a calendar handy can see that, at best, Mbala might be back for the A10 Tournament, and at worst has effectively ended his career at La Salle. Mekongo Mbala joins fellow seniors Kimmani Barrett and Ruben Guillandeaux on La Salle’s bench. At 3-7 and 11-13 overall, without a huge and unexpected turnaround, La Salle is going home after Atlantic City. The loss of the seniors has been devastating for the Explorers’ prospects this season, but those injuries have forced a few underclassmen to play more active roles this season. That should pay dividends in the seasons to come.

Next up for the Explorers is a trip to Ohio and a game with Dayton on Thursday (2/18) and home to host St. Bonaventure on Sunday (2/21).

Massachusetts

Ricky Harris shared Player of the Week honors for his 29 points in the Minutemen’s 84-80 overtime win over Duquesne. He also had a season-high six assists. UMass took two games last week, the aforementioned overtime win at Duquesne on Wednesday (2/10) and their home win over Saint Joseph’s 70-62, on Sunday (2/14). The Duquesne game broke a three-game losing streak, a recurring pattern for the Minutemen this season — two-to-five losses interrupted by one or two wins. Massachusetts has been able to beat every conference team ranked below them this season. What they do not have is a win against an opponent ranked above them in the conference standings. Their games this week, on Wednesday (2/17) at George Washington and Sunday (2/21) when they host St. Louis should settle the question of whether Coach Kellogg’s squad is turning their season around, or having a Funky February moment.

Rhode Island

The Rams had a terrible week. They went into last Wednesday’s (2/10) game with Richmond (a 69-67 loss) as a third of a cluster of teams just out of first place. They finished the week in sixth place, having dropped a 78-56 road game to Temple, one-half game ahead of seventh place Dayton. The Ram woes come on the defensive side of the basketball, the culprits a combination of shot defense (they are an equal opportunity provider, ranked #279th for two point defense and #296th for three point defense (out of 347 D1 teams) and defensive rebounding (ranked per Ken Pomeroy #303).

Their Wednesday (2/17) game at St. Louis should be interesting test of weakness versus weakness. The Billikens are offensive-challenged (ranked at #232 by Pomeroy) and rely on defense to prevail. St. Louis is an “average” shooting team that does not rebound their misses. The Billikens are 7-3 in the conference standings, so this Rhode Island can help itself immediately with a win. Their weekend game is Sunday (2/21) at Massachusetts.

Richmond

The Spiders leapfrogged Xavier and Charlotte to land in the AP Top 25 in the last slot this past Monday. This marks the first time since 1986 a Spider squad has been recognized by the polls. Coach Mooney’s squad extended their winning streak to six with a tough road win over Rhode Island, 69-67, on Wednesday (2/10) and a 68-49 win over St. Bonaventure on Saturday (2/13). Richmond is clustered with Temple, Xavier and Charlotte with two conference losses, but holds the half-game advantage by virtue of an additional win. Richmond is doing it on both sides of the ball. The Spiders are ranked #4 in conference games for offense, and #3 in confernce games for defense. Bracketologists from Joe Lunardi to RTC’s own Zach Hayes put Richmond in the field of 65 as a #7 seed.

Richmond hits one last breather in their schedule this week, a two-game home stand that includes Fordham on Wednesday (2/17) and George Washington on Saturday (2/20), before they play three fellow contenders (Xavier, Dayton and Charlotte) for an end of the season Trial by Fire.

St. Joseph’s

Coach Martelli’s young squad found no love in Amherst, Massachusetts, on Valentine’s Day. The Hawks dropped a 70-62 decision to the Minutemen. At 3-8 in conference and out of any postseason discussions beyond Atlantic City, the Hawks can still fight for some Big 5 respect. With two City Series games left (versus Temple and La Salle), the Hawks can knot those standings with two wins. After a road trip to Xavier Wednesday (2/17), they play Temple Saturday (2/20).

St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies beat Fordham 72-61, last Wednesday (2/10), but dropped a home game to Richmond 68-49, on Saturday (2/13). The season is not going as many Bonnies fans anticipated. At this point, improving their standings over 2009 (they finished #11) is a practical, if less ambitious goal. They will not get to 8-8 in conference play, but they might find three, possibly four more wins among the six games remaining. The home stretch starts this week as they host Temple Wednesday (2/17), and then travel to Philadelphia to play La Salle squad on Sunday (2/21). Temple is a stretch, but the Explorers are a wounded team right now, lacking three senior leaders.

St. Louis

Coach Majerus’ team personafies Funky February. Their January 30 game with Richmond was a hint of crazy stuff to come. As noted by Ken Pomeroy in his 2/01 blog entry, not only did the Billikens score less than 40 points in the game (no more than 20 in either period), but all of their points came from twos, probably the only D1 game of this type played this season. St. Louis scored no points from either beyond the arc or from the charity stripe. The offensively-challenged Billikens have quietly worked themselves into conference contention with a four-game winning streak that started with the game after their loss to Richmond. February has been perfect so far for St. Louis. They host Rhode Island on Wednesday (2/17) in a game that is significant for both, followed by a Sunday (2/21) road game with Massachusetts. St. Louis is 3-5 in road games this season, their wins coming over Duquesne, La Salle and Saint Joseph’s. They have taken conference road losses against Charlotte, George Washington and Richmond. Where does Massachusetts fit? And more importantly, where does St. Louis fit?

Temple

The Owls won their only game last week against Rhode Island, 78-56. Temple has two road games coming. On Wednesday (2/17) they go to Olean, NY, to play St. Bonaventure, and then across town on Saturday (2/20) to play their Big 5 designated game against Saint Joseph’s.

Xavier

Jason Love shared Player of the Week honors for his 20/10 performance in 22 minutes in Xavier’s 76-64 win over Florida. Florida may not be a tournament team this postseason (Coach Donovan has had a rough three years since winning two consecutive National Championships), but the win, coming on the road, should be, as ESPN’s Bubble Watcher Mark Shlabach noted, “catch the attention of the NCAA selection committee. It also gives them a nice nonconference win to go with four home victories over RPI top-50 opponents.” The Musketeers return to conference play on Wednesday (2/17) by hosting Saint Joseph’s, then travel to Charlotte for an important game with the 49ers on Saturday (2/20).

Games to Catch

• Rhode Island at St. Louis Wednesday 2/17 — A matchup between the #5 and #6 ranked teams. Rhode Island is ranked #3 in conference games for offense, while St. Louis is ranked #2 in conference games for defense. St. Louis has three losses, while Rhode Island has four. The standings will either stratify a bit more, or there will be two clusters at the top of the conference — one with two losses, the other with four.
• Xavier at Charlotte Saturday 2/20 — Another opportunity to sort out the top of the conference as the Musketeers enter Halton Arena to play the 49ers. Both teams are well stocked with guards — DiJuan Harris and Derrio Green will take the measure of Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway, but the game may come down to how well slightly undersized but athletic wing/forwards Shamari Spears and (freshman) Chris Braswell handle Jason Love and Jamel McLean. 

Joe Dzuback of Villanova By The Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

The Threshing Floor

If conference play muddied the rankings for the teams at the top (Charlotte moved into #1, pushing the trio of Rhode Island, Temple and Xavier, teams that had topped the standing since New Years, down a notch), the teams in the middle and bottom are sorting out, both by record and efficiency differentials. A threshing floor is a wide and flat surface, located in an open area (always breezy, though sometimes windy), where farmers can spread their wheat, and through a process of beating the stalks and kernels and tossing them straight up in the air, separate the edible grain from their husks and stalks. The grain is heavy and when tossed in the air will fall (more or less) straight to the threshing floor. The wind will carry the lighter husks and stalks to the side, off the floor. The schedule may be unbalanced, but the repetitive process of playing conference games has (as suggested by the table below) separated the upper division teams from the lower division teams. And that separation is obvious, even to the casual observer.

Table reflects conference games played through February 9.

The efficiency differential divides the conference cleanly into an upper and lower division. The separation between the two grows. St. Louis is a full 0.51 points higher than #8 La Salle. Using a Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula to develop a quick projection of each team’s conference record suggests Xavier, Temple and Dayton will end up in a three-way tie with (roughly) 13-3 records. While it would play to many preseason projections, the notion that Dayton will launch a 5-0 run through the remainder of their conference schedule is a bit optimistic. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage also suggests Charlotte will go 3-4 through their last seven conference games, possible perhaps since four of their opponents are upper division teams. They do, however, face two of those opponents (Richmond and Xavier) at home. The 49ers are 9-1 at home this season.

Standings as of 02/10/10

1. Charlotte (8-1, 18-5)
2. Xavier (8-2, 16-7)
3. Temple (7-2, 19-5, #21)
4. Rhode Island (7-2, 19-3)
5. Richmond (7-2, 18-6)
6. St. Louis (6-3, 15-8)
7. Dayton (5-3, 16-6)
8. Duquesne (3-6, 12-11)
9. La Salle (3-6, 11-12)
10. Saint Joseph’s (3-7, 9-15)
11. St. Bonaventure (2-6, 9-12)
12. George Washington (2-7, 12-10)
13. Massachusetts (2-7, 8-15)
14. Fordham (0-9, 2-19)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

Coach Lutz’s squad took sole possession of the #1 ranking in the conference with wins over George Washington 72-68, on Wednesday (2/3) and Fordham 77-72, on Saturday (2/6), even as Xavier stumbled in Dayton over the weekend. Junior Shamari Spears was named co-Player of the Week by the Conference which noted he scored a career-high 31 points versus George Washington and logged his second double-double of the season (15 points and 13 rebounds) versus Fordham. This is the second time the conference has acknowledged Spears’ contributions to the 49ers. A good run by Spears is only part of the story of the 49ers’ seven game winning streak. Spears, freshmen Chris Braswell and guard Shamarr Bowden, all combine with sophomore Darrio Green to power Charlotte’s offense. Green, whose offensive rating tops 113, is the squad’s most efficient scorer. Bowden, Spears, and Green shoulder most of the shot-making responsibilities. Braswell, whose most recent offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy) of 102.2 has received multiple nods from the conference for his work this season.

A rendezvous with the Flyers in Dayton Wednesday (2/10) is next up for Charlotte, and then a week off to regroup for Duquesne. This is a game Coach Lutz needs to get to solidify his team’s hold on the top of the A10. The Flyers, coupled with St. Louis in the last group North of the conference’s dividing line, needs to pull Charlotte back to the pack. Using the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (for conference games only) suggests Coach Lutz’s squad will go 3-4 in their last seven games. Taking a road win in Dayton would buck that trend, bolster team confidence, and reassure the selection committee that Charlotte can be competitive away from Halton Arena. An early season blowout at the hands of Duke and OOC road losses to Old Dominion and Tennessee leave that question open.

Dayton

With a week to prepare, the Flyers waxed the Musketeers 90-65, on Saturday (2/6).

As the table derived from the Xavier box score suggests, Rob Lowery, a senior guard whose injury in February 2009 cut short his run last season. Lowery has been working himself back into shape this season, and the Flyers, whose defensive efficiency (0.914) is second only to Temple’s in conference play, will need all of Lowery’s offensive capabilities in the last four weeks of the regular season. For Dayton, inconsistent offense in the form of mediocre shot efficiency and higher-than-average turnovers, is the principle reason the team trails conference leader Charlotte with two losses. Their efficiency differential is high enough to suggest (using the Pythagorean Winning Percentage for conference games only) Dayton can run the table for their last eight conference games, compiling a record that should put them back into the conversation for a post season bid (without having to run through the field in Atlantic City).

Having pulled the Musketeers out of a first place tie, Dayton hosts Charlotte on Wednesday (2/10) in another chance to muddy the top of the conference. A Dayton win over Charlotte would knot the top of conference again, putting Xavier, Temple and Charlotte into a three-way tie with about three weekends left in the conference season.

Duquesne

The Dukes’ season has fallen well short of expectations so far. Melquan Bolding has returned to the rotation, but the sophomore is coming back very slowly, and the season is running out. To date, Duquesne has beaten only those teams in the bottom half of the conference, not a credential that would impress a selection committee. Against upper division teams the Dukes have come up short time and again. Coach Everhart’s squad is bedeviled by demons on both sides of the ball. Extremely poor shot conversion (an eFG% of 44.7%, ranked at #13 in the conference, ahead of only Fordham) undermines an otherwise average-to-good conference offense. The problems on defense involve more elements of the game; poor defensive rebounding and a propensity to foul combine with extremely bad shot defense to produce a defense that has yielded 1.05 points per possession, ranked ahead of only Massachusetts and Fordham in conference play.

Duquesne has a two game home stand this week, facing Massachusetts on Thursday (2/11), followed by La Salle on Sunday (2/14). Both are good opportunities for wins, which would move the Dukes to the top of the A10’s lower division.

Fordham

Chris Gaston was named Rookie of the Week for the fourth time this season as he scored 55 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in Fordham’s losses to Xavier (108-60, 1/30) and to Charlotte (77-72, 2/6). A pity that Jio Fontan transferred before Gaston exploded. The two could have formed a dynamic inside/outside combination. Probably not enough to turn the program around, but enough to improve on the Rams’ record from last season — and throw a scare into Coach Martelli’s Hawks. Ken Pomeroy’s “no win” probability remained at 63.14%. With a -0.240 differential, Fordham is nearly as far behind #13 Duquesne as the Dukes are from #7 St. Louis, the last team with a positive efficiency differential in conference games. For Coach Grasso, a commitment from Gaston (and guards Lance Brown and Alberto Eastwick) to return next season would carry more significance than a conference win, though a conference win (or two) would probably help Gaston, Brown and Eastwick decide to stay.

One of Fordham’s better prospects for a win, the George Washington Colonials are coming to town for a Saturday (2/13) game. Before that one, however, the Rams have to travel to New York’s Western Tier to take on St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (2/10).

George Washington

The January 30 loss to Rhode Island started a losing run that now extends to three games. The Colonials dropped games to Charlotte 72-68 (2/3) and to Duquesne 70-63 (2/6), this past week. That home loss to Duquesne is especially damaging, as the Dukes are also struggling through a season of lowered expectations. Post season prospects, short of running the table in Atlantic City next month, are nil. The team may have started the season well, but ineffective shooting (#11 in conference, ahead of only Saint Joseph’s, Duquesne and Fordham) is the principal culprit for an offense that has generated a paltry 0.97 points per possession in conference play (the conference average is 1.01). The defense is not fatally flawed, but giving up 1.02 points per possession is higher than the conference average (1.01). For Coach Hobbs, a losing season — the third since he led the Colonials to the NCAAs in 2007 with a 23-7 record — could not have come at a worse time. Many believe that Connecticut will begin it’s search for a successor to the Hall of Fame coach among those assistants who left to head programs of their own. At one point Hobbs was generally recognized as the most successful in that group.

The Colonials have perhaps their best opportunity to end their losing run as they take on Fordham on Saturday (2/13). The game will be played in the Bronx, though, and George Washington has dropped four straight road games in conference play.

La Salle

Coach Giannini’s squad is three games into a losing slide, having dropped a 68-65 home game to St. Louis last Saturday (2/6). Losing seniors Ruben Guillandeaux (last played 11/22/09) and Kimmani Barrett (last played 1/13 — the conference announced he would undergo surgery, thereby ending his college career) has reduced the Explorers from one of the conference’s most experienced squads to one of its least experienced in just under eight weeks. The Explorers are 2-5 in Barrett’s absence. Getting freshman Parrish Grant some court time in preparation for next season may become the higher priority as the current season slips away.

Next up for La Salle is a St. Valentine’s date with Duquesne, in Pittsburgh.

Massachusetts

The Minutemen are riding a three game losing streak, and two of the three games were added this past week. Both games were lost by identical eight point margins: Xavier, 87-79 on Wednesday (2/3), and Rhode Island, 93-85 on Saturday (2/6). Like Duquesne, UMass demonstrates yet again why shot efficiency is the most important of Dean Oliver’s four factors. The Minutemen are ranked #11 in the conference for efficiency differential, and #10 in the conference for (offensive) shot efficiency. As a dribble-drive squad that prefers to kick the ball out to the perimeter for a three, the Minutemen do not get to the line much either. For defensive shot efficiency Massachusetts is ranked #13, ahead of only Fordham.

Massachusetts’ schedule going forward (they have seven conference games left) looks fairly favorable compared to the front end of their schedule. With only three games remaining against upper division opponents, the Minutemen could acquire another 3-4 wins over the last month of conference play. The future starts Thursday (2/11) with a trip to Pittsburgh for a game with Duquesne, and continues with a visit from Saint Joseph’s on Sunday (2/14).

Rhode Island

The Rams extended their winning run to four games with a win over Massachusetts, 93-85, last Saturday (2/6). Rhode Island has put the second most efficient offense together, despite being ranked #4 in shot efficiency (50.6%), through strong offensive rebounding and a conference-leading low turnover rate (16.9%). According to Ken Pomeroy, every member of the Rams’ regular rotation has an individual offensive rating of 104.5 or higher. Four of Rhode Island’s remaining seven conference games are against upper division teams, but two of those games (versus Richmond and Charlotte) are home games. The Rams ought to prevail in both.

Rhode Island hosts Richmond on Wednesday (2/10), then travels to Philadelphia on Saturday (2/13) for their mirror game against Temple.

Richmond

Among the six conference teams currently in the NCAA postseason discussion, Richmond, with a solid 7-2 record to date, is often overlooked. The Spiders have assembled a solid conference resume, but out-of-conference road losses to William & Mary, VCU, Wake Forest and South Carolina may give the Selection Committee pause to think. In conference play Richmond has compiled a 3-1 road record, the sole loss coming at the hands of St. Louis, a fellow upper division team in the A10. Richmond’s bread and butter comes from defense, as they are #2 in the conference behind St. Louis for shot defense (eFG% is 43.7%) and #2 in conference play behind Rhode Island in turnover rates (22.6%). Their offense offers solid shooting efficiency (52.0%, #1 in conference play), but conference-worst offensive rebounding (26.0%), combined with a somewhat passive offense (FTA/FGA rate is 32.7%, well below the conference average of 36.1%) suggest the Spiders are a perimeter-oriented team that needs to convert their three point field goal attempts more effectively to prosper.

Richmond takes in two road games this week (terrible week to travel in the Northeast). First stop Wednesday (2/10) will be Rhode Island, followed by a Saturday (2/13) game at St. Bonaventure. If past is prolog, Richmond should beat St. Bonaventure, but their Rhode Island game is more complicated.

Saint Joseph’s

The problem with the Hawks’ season is that it has gone largely as planned. Seniors Garrett Williamson and Darrin Govens have shouldered much of the offensive responsibility, but neither had been especially efficient at posting points. Freshmen guards Carl Jones and Justin Crosgile are good players, but neither has developed into the impact player that Coach Martelli’s offense needs. The offense has not produced points efficiently in conference play. 0.96 points per possession is below the conference average of 1.00, and the Hawk defense allows nearly 1.05 points per possession, a deadly combination when trying to fashion a winning record.

The Hawks travel to Massachusetts for a Sunday (2/14) game. The Hawks’ road record this season is an underwhelming 1-8.

St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies are riding a four game losing streak that dates back to the last week in January. They added two of those games last week, dropping a 67-65 road decision to St. Louis on Wednesday (2/3), followed by a 78-71 loss at Saint Joseph’s on Sunday (2/7). The Bonnies convert shots at a conference-average 48.3% (eFG%), but they produce 4% fewer points per possession on average because they lose a conference-high 23.6% of their possessions. Andrew Nicholson may be a top 250 rebounder (per Ken Pomeroy), but as a team St. Bonaventure ranks only #13 in the conference in offensive rebounding. Senior Jon Hall and sophomore Nicholson can convert efficiently if the back court can consistently deliver the ball. Five of the Bonnies’ remaining eight games will come at home, so a move into the middle of the conference is only possible if St. Bonaventure can take advantage of a home court advantage.

The Bonnies open a three game home stand this week by hosting Fordham on Wednesday (2/10), followed by Richmond on Saturday (2/10).

St. Louis

The Billikens have put together a three game winning streak this week. First, they snagged a 67-65 home win versus St. Bonaventure last Wednesday (2/3), followed by a road win versus La Salle, 68-65 last Saturday (2/6), and lastly a win over Saint Joseph’s, 56-52 on Tuesday (2/9). The last two are of particular interest because they were road wins, a rare element in St. Louis’ resumen this season. Identified by Pomeroy as one of the youngest squads in D1 (at 0.56 years they are ranked #346, dead last), Coach Majerus’ squad was 1-6 in away games going into the week. The Billikens are getting it done with defense. They have posted a conference-best 43.0 shot defense (eFG%), combined with the #5 best turnover rate. Sophomore guard Kwamain Mitchell earned conference recognition in the form of A10 Player Of The Week for the second time this season with his 42 point/7 assist efforts in St. Louis’ games with St. Bonaventure and Syracuse.

St. Louis hosts Dayton Saturday (2/13). A win over the veteran Flyer squad would be a huge boost to Coach Majerus’ team.

Temple

Temple recorded a second consecutive 1-1 week in conference play as they beat Duquesne 76-60 on Wednesday (2/3), but lost their weekend game to Richmond, 71-54 on Saturday (2/6). That second loss dropped the Owls a half-game behind Xavier. Coach Dunphy’s offense and defense share a common set of priorities: that is, take care of the shot and then the rebound. On offense that translates in to a #3 conference rank for eFG% (51.4) and #5 rank for offensive rebounding (35.0%). On defense, the Owls rank #4 for shot defense (46.2% eFG) and #1 for defensive rebounding (26.4%). Ryan Brooks, Lavoy Allen and Juan Fernandez continue to be productive offensively, as Allen, sophomore Eric Michael, and Scottie Randall control the boards.

Temple will come off of a week-long break to host Rhode Island on Saturday (2/13).

Xavier

The Musketeers lost their second conference game last week, a 90-65 road game at Dayton on Saturday (2/6). Timing is everything as Temple also lost (to Richmond), keeping those two programs even in the loss column, and one loss behind Charlotte. Their offense, ranked #1 in conference games, earns them 1.11 points per possession. Combined with their #6 ranked defense, which allows 0.98 points per possession, that puts them at the top of the conference for efficiency differentials. On offense, top of the conference ranking in shot efficiency (eFG% of 54.3%) combined with frequent trips to the line (FTR of 45.7%) explain how Xavier earns their points. They have Jordan Crawford to thank, taking over a third of Xavier’s shots when he is on the court.  But as defenses concentrate on Crawford, Xavier has two other players — Terrell Holloway and Jason Love — who convert shots very efficiently.

Xavier takes a break from conference action to travel to Florida for a game with the Gators of the SEC.

Games to Catch:

Rhode Island at Temple Saturday 2/13 — An early season matchup gave Temple their first important conference road win, and knocked the Rams, who were flirting with #25 in the national polls, down a peg or two. Both teams, saddled with two losses apiece, need a win to keep pace with Xavier and remain one loss behind Charlotte. Lavoy Allen versus Delroy James should be interesting. Juan Fernandez and Luis Guzman will be tested by the conference’s best team in terms of forcing turnovers.

Xavier at Florida Saturday 2/13 — A top 50 RPI win up for grabs. Jason Love and Kenny Frease will have their hands full with Vernon Macklin and Dan Werner. If it comes down to a shootout between Kenny Boyton and Jordan Crawford, I have to like Crawford.

Dayton at St. Louis Saturday 2/13 — Two of the conference’s better defenses lock up in this game. St. Louis has been very tough at home (11-1 this season), while Dayton is less impressive on the road (4-3). This is the second game in a tough week for Dayton, but the Flyers cannot relax if they want to keep pace with the five teams clustered at the top of the conference.

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. 

Atlantic 10 Efficiency Differentials

Updated to reflect games through Tuesday, January 26, the teams are starting to sort out, with a few notable exceptions. Temple is moving away from the rest of the conference, even as St. Louis, Xavier and Rhode Island are forming a tier just below the Owls. Dayton is the outlier, as the Flyers’ 0.75 positive efficiency is contradicted by their 3-3 record. The culprit is a lackluster offense, though inconsistent defense does not help. If the Flyers’ offense produced a conference-average 1.0 point per possession, Dayton would have a 4-2 record. Fordham is struggling to maintain contact with the rest of the conference, as their problems on both offense and defense are reflected in their 0-6 record. Ken Pomeroy speculated in a blog entry on January 6 a 49% probability that Fordham would go winless in A10 competition this season. The Rams’ -0.229 differential is a strong suggestion this will come to pass.

Standings (as of 01/26/10)

1. Temple (17-3, 5-0, AP #15)
2. Xavier (13-6, 5-1)
3. Charlotte (14-5, 4-1)
4. St. Louis (12-6, 3-1)
5. Rhode Island (16-3, 4-1)
6. Richmond (15-6, 4-2)
7. Dayton (14-6, 3-3)
8. La Salle (10-9, 2-3)
9. St. Bonaventure (9-9, 2-3)
10. Saint Joseph’s (8-11, 2-3)
11. George Washington (11-7, 1-4)
12. Duquesne (10-9, 1-4)
13. Massachusetts (7-12, 1-4)
14. Fordham (2-16, 0-6)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

Coach Lutz’s squad finished a very productive two-game road trip, beating Richmond 71-59 on Wednesday (1/20) and then La Salle 84-82 on Saturday (1/23). Those wins extend their current streak to three. Both La Salle and Richmond were well regarded coming into the A10 regular season, so Charlotte’s road wins should provide the 49ers with an edge over both as the conference standings sort out. Charlotte’s rebounders were able to gather a whopping 38.2% of their misses, yielding a six-point advantage in second chance points. Richmond will travel to Charlotte for a mirror game at the end of the season. Productive enough to take the Rookie of the Week honors, freshman Chris Braswell was cited for his 16 points against St. Louis, his nine points and 10 rebounds against Richmond and his sixth double-double of the season (21 points, 13 boards) in the 49ers’ win over La Salle. This was Braswell’s third designation as Rookie of the Week, the most so far this season.

Next up, the 49ers host Temple on Wednesday (1/27), and then travel to Amherst, MA, for a game with Massachusetts on Saturday (1/30).

Dayton

The Flyers handled George Washington easily on Wednesday (1/20), 66-51, with Chris Wright’s game-high (shared with GW’s Lasan Kromah) 14 points leading the way. Three other Flyers, the Johnsons Marcus (13) and Chris (10), along with Mickey Perry (11), scored double-digit points. In all, 11 players saw action. On Saturday (1/23) Dayton dropped a head-scratcher to Saint Joseph’s in Philadelphia. It was the Chris Wright Show, as the Wooden preseason nominee scored 28 points while taking 36% of the Flyers’ possessions and 41% of their shots when he was on the floor (80% of the minutes). But he had little support from the rest of the squad as the Johnsons (who combined for over 47% of the shots when they played) went a combined 5-20 (1-11, 4-9) from the field. After leading very briefly at the start of the first half, the Flyers and Hawks tied four times, Dayton ceding the lead thereafter to Saint Joseph’s. A 14-6 run in the last 5:30 of the game was not enough to overtake the Hawks. Compounding their woes, Dayton returned home and dropped a second consecutive game to visiting Rhode Island on Tuesday (1/26), 65-64. Down 62-61 with 15 ticks left, the Flyers’ Chris Wright was fouled while taking a three-point attempt. On the line with the game in the balance, Wright hit all three attempts to put Dayton up 64-62. Their defense failed however, as Marquis Jones hit a three-pointer nine seconds later. Mickey Perry’s own heroic attempt at a three missed with 0:00 on the clock. A virtually unanimous preseason favorite to take the A10 regular season title and a berth in the field of 65, the Flyers, with a 14-6 overall record and 3-3 in conference are looking up at the bubble right now.

The Flyers take to the road again this weekend, playing at St. Bonaventure on Saturday (1/30), and then break for a week.

Duquesne

Duquesne’s road trip to Kingston, RI, on Wednesday (1/20) ended badly — a 75-67 beating at the hands of Rhode Island. Damian Saunders paced the Dukes with 21 points on 8-13 (1-4, 7-9) and 4-9 shooting, as the junior grabbed 11 rebounds to log his 15th double-double of the season. Eric Evans (16) and BJ Montiero (11) also scored double-digit points. Their Saturday (1/23) game with St. Bonaventure was more successful, as the Dukes downed the Bonnies 70-69 at home. Evans and Saunders paced Duquesne with 15 points apiece. The best news may be Melquan Bolding’s 14-point outing. The sophomore, coming off of rehabilitation, played 30 minutes in the St. Bonaventure game follwing a 29-minute outing against Rhode Island. Bill Clark’s 10 points made him the fourth Duquesne player to record double-digit points.

The Dukes travel to Cincinnati to play Xavier on Thursday (1/28) and then return home to host the Hawks of Saint Joseph’s on Sunday (1/31).

Fordham

Coach Grasso’s squad dropped two more games last week to bring their winless run in conference to six and 11 overall. St. Louis beat Fordham 75-48 in Chaifetz Arena on Wednesday (1/20), and then Temple beat them 62-45 in the Bronx on Saturday (1/23). Freshman guard Lance Brown paced the Rams with 15 points in St. Louis, while freshman Chris Gaston logged his 11th double-double of the season Sunday, with 16 points and 10 rebounds.

Next up for Fordham, a visit from La Salle on Wednesday (1/27), and then back on the road, this time to Cincinnati for a date with the Musketeers on Sunday (1/31).

George Washington

January has been a cruel month for the Colonials so far, as Coach Hobbs’ squad has gone 2-4 through the first three weeks. The two losses last week extend their losing streak to four. They lost to Dayton in Ohio 66-51, on Wednesday (1/20), then dropped their weekend game 62-57 to Richmond on Saturday (1/23). Lasan Kromah shared game-high honors with Flyer Chris Wright with 14 points on Wednesday. Unlike Dayton which had three other players score in double digits, George Washington only had Kromah. Sophomore guard Tony Taylor paced the Colonials with 16 points on 4-6 (0-0, 4-6) and 8-8 shooting — a very efficient 66.7% eFG% and 1.63 PPWS. and the two freshmen, guard Bryan Bynes (11 points) and forward David Pellom (four points), were not prolific enough to put George Washington over the top in the Richmond game. The two teams took a combined 49 free throws on 52 fouls.

The Colonials will try to turn it around on Wednesday (1/27) when they host St. Louis. The weekend game, a visit to Rhode Island on Saturday (1/30), may not be a promising place to break their losing run.

La Salle

La Salle disposed of Big 5 rival Penn 76-57, last Wednesday (1/20) at the Palestra. Freshman Aaric Murray led the Explorers with 21 points on 8-11 (3-4, 5-7) and 2-2 shooting. Three others, guard Rodney Green (15), along with forwards Yves Mbala (14) and Jerrell Williams (13), scored in double figures. Coach Giannini’s squad dropped their weekend game to Charlotte 84-82, at the Gola. The Explorers trailed by two 48-46, at the half, but chased the 49ers through all but 30 seconds of the second half. They took the lead 77-76, at the 5:06 on an Mbala dunk. Charlotte tied 77 all on a Darrio Green free throw, and retook the lead, for good 79-77, on an An’Juan Wilderness layup. Rodney Green’s low post entry pass to Aaric Murray with five seconds left in regulation went out of bounds, turning the ball over to Charlotte for on last possession. An’Juan Wilderness put the game away with a jumper with no time left. The loss however, was eclipsed by news that senior forward Kimmani Barrett, out since the Massachusetts game on 1/10, will have surgery this week to repair a fractured bone in his right foot. Barrett, the Explorers’ second leading scorer, is most likely out for the season. Barrett is the second crucial injury suffered by La Salle, as senior guard Ruben Guillandeaux has missed the last 15 games with a stress fracture.

The Explorers have a busy week ahead. They travel to the Bronx to face Fordham on Wednesday (1/27), then across town to play conference (and Big 5) rival Temple on Saturday (1/30) and lastly back to the Gola to host Rhode Island on Tuesday (2/2).

Massachusetts

The Minutemen’s losing streak is up to five. They dropped a 70-69 decision to St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (1/20). Down 10 (57-47) to the Bonnies midway through the second half, Massachusetts’ 22-13 run fell short. Senior guard Ricky Harris paced the Minutemen with 22 points. Their woes continued Saturday (1/23) as they dropped a road game to Baylor, 71-45. Ricky Harris again led Massachusetts, this time with 14 points. Freshman forward Terrill Vinson recorded his second double-double of his career, gathering 12 (7-5-12) rebounds to go with his 14 points.

Massachusetts will travel to Philadelphia to play Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (1/27), then take on Charlotte at home Saturday (1/30).

Rhode Island

After beating the Dukes on Wednesday (1/20) 75-67, the Rams dropped a road game to Xavier 72-61, on Saturday (1/23) — a disappointing 11 point loss. Their road adventure did not end there however, as they stunned Dayton 65-64, on a Marquis Jones three point jumper with 0:04 left. Senior Delroy James paced all scorers with 22 points, while Keith Cothran chipped in 17. Though the head-to-head loss to X was a setback, the Rams, now 4-2 in conference play (16-3 overall), are back within striking distance of Xavier, St. Louis and Charlotte for second place in the conference.

The Rams should be able to keep pace next week as they host George Washington on Saturday (1/30), then travel to Philadelphia for a game with La Salle on Tuesday (2/2).

Richmond

The Spiders squandered a chance to establish their spot in the conference pecking order (not to mention their chance for their first 10-0 home start) when they dropped a disastrous 71-59 decision to Charlotte on Wednesday (1/20). Of Richmond’s starters, only wing Justin Harper had anything approaching a good offensive outing, scoring 24 points on 8-11 (4-5, 4-6) and 4-6 shooting. Harper notched a gaudy 90.9% eFG% and 1.73 PPWS which would have been better had he hit another free throw (or two). The other four starters combined for 26 points on 8-32 (4-18, 4-14) and 6-9 shooting. Combined they posted a 31.2% eFG5 and 0.72 PPWS. Charlotte managed to score 1.14 points per possesion on a Spider defense that has typically given up 0.95 points per possession in conference play. Richmond, ranked #13 in the conference (only Saint Joseph’s is lower) for offensive rebounding percentage, had an even rougher night than normal, gathering only 22.9% of their misses. The Spiders bounced back on Saturday (1/23) with a road win over George Washington 62-57. Junior Kevin Anderson scored a game-high 21 points on 7-14 (4-4, 3-10) and 3-4 shooting. David Gonzalvez and Justin Harper also recorded double digit points. Harper’s 14 points on an efficient 4-8 (2-5, 2-3) and 4-6 shooting. Gonzalvez’s 11 points came on a high volume shooting night as the junior took 11 field goal attempts and eight trips to the line to record his points.

Next up for Coach Mooney’s squad, the Spiders host St. Louis Saturday (1/30). A win can give Richmond a leg up over St. Louis in the conference standings.

Saint Joseph’s

The Hawks downed Dayton on Saturday (1/23) in a 60-59 game whose score is much closer than the game itself. After falling behind very briefly at the start of the first half, the Hawks and Flyers tied four times through the first 11 minutes of the game, but the Hawks maintained control and took a four-point lead into the locker room. Their lead shrank to one twice in the second half, but the Hawks led by seven to nine points through most of the half. Despite a closing rush by the Flyers, the Hawks retained possession with 14 ticks left and left Dayton with a single field goal attempt at four seconds. Saint Jospeh’s second break from conference play resulted in a decisive 85-64 win over the struggling Quakers of Penn at the Palestra on Monday (1/25).

Coach Martelli’s squad will host Massachusetts at the Hagan on Wednesday (1/27), then travel to Pittsburgh for a game with Duquesne on Sunday (1/31).

St. Bonaventure

Seventy and 69 were the numbers for Coach Schmidt’s squad last week. They worked in the Bonnies’ favor in their first game, a 70-69 win over Massachusetts on Wednesday (1/20). But they worked against the Bonnies in their second game, also on the road, a 70-69 loss to Duquesne on Saturday (1/23). Andrew Nicholson earned his second citation as Player of the Week as he scored 27 points, grabbed seven rebounds and blocked five shots in play against the Minutemen. Nicholson equaled his career high 29 points against Duquesne to lead all scorers and log his fifth 20 point game of the season. This was Nicholson’s second designation as Player of the Week.

The Bonnies will host Dayton on Saturday (1/30), then travel to St. Louis to take on the Billikens on Wednesday (2/3).

St. Louis

St. Louis beat Fordham on Wednesday (1/20) 75-48, in their only game of the week. Sophomore forward Brian Conklin came off the bench to lead the Billikens with 15 points in 20 minutes of play. Three starters, Aussie forward Cody Ellis (14), guard Kwamain Mitchell (13) and senior forward Willie Reed (10) also logged double-digit points.

The Billikens return to action with two road games this week. On Wednesday they stop in Washington, DC, to play the Colonials of GWU, and then down to Richmond to take on the Spiders for a Saturday (1/30) game.

Temple

The Owls extended their winning streak (currently at six games) by two more this past week. On Wednesday (1/20) they bested the Musketeers by five points, 77-72, on a 22 point, seven rebound effort by guard Ryan Brooks. Temple was able to exploit 13 Xavier turnovers for 19 points. Lavoy Allen chipped in 16 points. Temple beat Fordham 62-45, at Rose Hill, on Saturday (1/23). On a day when Lavoy Allen and Ryan Brooks combined for a horrific 4-18 shooting performance that yielded nine points, the Owls fell back on Juan Fernandez and their bench to come through with 39 points on a combined 13-20 (8-12, 5-8) and 5-6 shooting.

Temple travels to Charlotte for another conference showdown on Wednesday (1/27), and then back to the Liacouras Center for a game with La Salle on Saturday (1/30).

Xavier

The Musketeers went 1-1 for the week, a pretty good result considering the slate of opponents. They dropped a five-point decision to Temple , Wednesday (1/20). Jordan Crawford paced the Musketeers with 18 points. Xavier returned to their winning ways and leveled their race with Rhode Island on Saturday (1/23) when they beat the Rams by 11, 72-61, in the Cintas Center on Saturday (1/23). Jordan Crawford bolstered his Player of the Year resume with a game-high double-double, 21 points to go with 12 boards. The game was close for the first 33 minutes, neither team holding a lead greater than six points, when Xavier broke it open with a five minute, 15-7 run. The Rams could not close that double digit deficit as the Musketeers cruised home.

Coach Mack’s squad tacks two more games onto their homestand this week, first hosting the Dukes on Thursday (1/28), followed by the Fordham Rams on Sunday (1/31).

Games to Catch

• Temple at Charlotte – Wednesday 1/27 — Another week and the schedule maker gives us another challenge for the conference lead. Charlotte puts a three game winning streak up against Temple’s six game winning streak. Someone’s winning streak will be over at (roughly) 9:00pm Wednesday. Charlotte, along with Xavier and Rhode Island is chasing Temple in the A10 race. Beat the Owls and the race becomes a four-way deadlock.
• St. Louis at Richmond – Saturday 1/30 — The Spiders need a win over the Billikens to tighten the A10 conference race. David Gonzalvez has struggled of late, but Richmond will need all of their offensive weapons to counter Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis, Willie Reed and Brian Conklin.

Standings & Records (Conference Standings) (Last Week)

1. Northern Iowa  17-2  (8-1) (1)
2. Wichita State 15-4 (6-3) (2)
3. Illinois State  14-6 (5-4) (3)
4. Drake  10-11 (5-4)  (8)
5. Bradley  10-9 (5-4) (6)
6. Creighton  10-10 (5-4)  (4)
7. Missouri State  14-6 (4-5) (5)
8. Southern Illinois   11-7 (4-5) (9)
9. Indiana State  11-9 (3-6) (7)
10. Evansville 6-12 (0-9) (10)
    

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Wichita State/Northern Iowa game was as expected—The matchup of the top two teams in the conference was quite the game this week.  Getting the TV exposure is needed for the MVC.  Wichita State came out fast against the Panthers to take a dominant lead in front of a raucous home crowd to halftime.  Maybe it was the extra attention that Northern Iowa was getting by being ranked the day before or the fact that the Shockers hosted another ranked team at home in the same season for the first time in almost 15-20 years.  But the Panthers erased the deficit early in the second half and seemed as though they were going to pull out the victory the same way they have all season, but did not have enough as the Shockers upset the Panthers and once again put the Valley race back in play for several other teams.

Opportunities lost, others gained—With Northern Iowa losing this week, Wichita State, Creighton and Illinois State could have taken advantage of the situation in the MVC standings.  However, Creighton lost to Illinois State, Illinois State lost to Southern Illinois and Wichita State turned around and lost to Drake.  Bradley and Drake, who have been struggling this season, have taken advantage of those losses to move up the Valley standings.   It is now anyone’s game, but it is extremely important that either Wichita State or Northern Iowa decide to take over the league and somebody else win the Valley tournament if they expect to get more than one team into the NCAA Tournament this season.

Saint Louis wants to be part of the Valley?—Saint Louis head coach Rick Majerus made it quite clear that they would rather be a part of the Missouri Valley Conference instead of the A10.  The question is, could that really happen?  And if so, would they drop a team or add another to make the conference twelve?  Butler? Western Kentucky?  Apparently there are no plans for any MVC expansion, but does make an interesting discussion.

POSITIVE WEEK

Drake (2-0 this week, 5 game winning streak) — Drake has been on fire, now on a five-game winning streak including a dominating win against Wichita State on Saturday.   Players are stepping up while Craig Stanley is out with an injury.   The Bulldogs will be squarely in the conference race with wins against Northern Iowa and Creighton this week. What a turnaround this might be after having a horrible non-conference season and losing to teams like SIU-Edwardsville at home.

Bradley (2-0 this week, 3 game winning streak) – Bradley all of a sudden is making a turnaround with a three-game winning streak with wins this past week against Southern Illinois and Evansville.  Defense has been the key to their resurgence.   Bradley could move up into the top three of the conference with wins over Creighton and Illinois State this week.

CAN’T DECIDE

Northern Iowa (1-1 this week) — The Panthers ranking and Sports Illustrated article were probably a little too much to handle this week heading into their game against Wichita State while opening the door to the rest of the conference to say they are beatable.  Northern Iowa is in no way guaranteed the NCAA tournament as their Athletic Director can attest after his participation in a mock NCAA selection committee exercise.   Jordan Eglseder looks like a different player this season and appears to be a dominant inside threat in the Valley.  The hottest team in the conference, Drake, is coming to town before a trip to Missouri State is on the schedule this week.

Wichita State (1-1 this week) — Wichita gave Northern Iowa their best shot and sent a message to the Panthers that they are contenders for the league, but then must have had a hangover in getting drilled by Drake.    You would have thought Wichita was completely out of the race after this loss.    They hope to get back on track against Illinois State and Southern Illinois

Illinois State  (1-1 this week) — The Redbirds came from behind Wednesday night against Creighton by dominating the inside with Dinma Okiakosa setting the standard, but then suffered an overtime defeat to Southern Illinois.   This will be a key week for them with games against Wichita State and Bradley.

Missouri State (1-1 this week) — Missouri State blew a 24-point second half lead against Indiana State before surviving in overtime.  They then lost a see-saw battle against Creighton.  A key to the Bears’ continued success is the health of Adam Leonard. He has been experiencing back spasms that may keep him out of games down the line.  They will need him for the games against Evansville and Northern Iowa this week.

Creighton  (1-1 this week) — Creighton let another halftime lead slip away, this time at Illinois State.  They were on the verge of collapsing but hit an amazing 15-15 from the free throw line in the second half to get a win against Missouri State.  Are the Bluejays playing scared?  Some are starting to think that including the players.  Road trips to Bradley and Drake won’t make things any easier this week.

Southern Illinois (1-1 this week)—Just when you thought the Salukis were about to pack it in for the second consecutive season (with a loss to Bradley at home), screams for Chris Lowery’s exit out of town grows louder and louder, and academic problems with Gene Teague,  they survived against Illinois State in overtime.   A road trip to Indiana State before hosting Wichita State are on the slate this week.

PACKING IT IN

Indiana State (0-2 this week) — Indiana State took 30 minutes to wake up against Missouri State and almost came back to defeat them, but came up short.   Although they were in range of Northern Iowa, they could not steal a win from there.  The loss of Dwayne Lathan has really hurt this team.   They have few opportunities left to make a conference run, but could have some success hosting Southern Illinois before heading to Evansville this week.

Evansville (0-2 this week, 10 game losing streak) — It doesn’t really matter who Evansville is playing anymore, they just don’t have enough to win games.  Rebuilding is hard, especially at Evansville.   Missouri State and Indiana State are on the slate this week and could be a spoiler for those teams.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

The Wild and Wacky Valley.  You have to see it:

• 1/25, Western Kentucky @ Southern Illinois (Fox College Sports)—A very odd out of conference matchup for the Salukis and Hilltoppers during conference season that looked more attractive at the beginning of the season.  Not so much now, but still likely a good game.
• 1/27, Creighton @ Bradley (Local TV)—Great matchup for both teams that are looking to position themselves for St. Louis.
• 1/27, Drake @ Northern Iowa (Local TV)—Drake wants respect.  Best way to get it is against conference leader UNI.
• 1/27, Illinois State @ Wichita State (Fox Sports Net)—Koch Arena is a great college basketball environment.  See it in action on TV.
• 1/30, Bradley @ Illinois State (Fox Sports Net)—I think the loser of this game will end up playing on Thursday in the play-in games in the MVC tournament.
• 1/30, Creighton @ Drake (Local TV)—Even though Drake didn’t get the win in Omaha a couple weeks ago, the effort jumpstarted them into their current streak.  A great I-80 matchup.
• 1/30, Northern Iowa @ Missouri State—This game isn’t going to be on TV, but it will be a battle in Springfield by these two teams.
• 1/31, Wichita State @ Southern Illinois (ESPNU)—The Shockers want to separate themselves from the rest of the Valley contenders, but the Saluki’s may not let them at home.

1. Washington State lost its dispute with Oregon over a controversial technical foul call at the end of the first overtime in a New Year’s Eve conference game in Pullman.  The issue arose after Wazzu seemingly won the game with 0.3 seconds remaining when several bench players and at least one fan stepped onto the court.  A technical foul was called, and Oregon was awarded two FTs to tie the game, sending it into double-OT where they won 91-89.  From our viewing of it here, it looked like a hundred other exciting endings that happen during the normal course of a season, but the Pac-10 chose to hide behind the technicality.
2. St. Louis coach Rick Majerus, in the midst of a somewhat promising season at 12-6 and 3-1 in the A10, took an opportunity to throw his conference (the Atlantic 10) under the bus yesterday, sparing no complaint about the expensive East Coast cities, the travel, the airports and even the old standby, academics.  He said he’d prefer to play in the MVC, which makes geographic sense, but what’s left unsaid is that he’d prefer the built-in advantage of playing in Arch Madness for a trip to the NCAA Tournament just minutes from the SLU campus.  He didn’t mention whether a lack of high thread count towels in their budget hotels factored into his decision.
3. Another interesting insight from Mike DeCourcy — Duke’s much-lauded point guard Jon Scheyer isn’t getting it done down the stretch of close games.  Someone out there surely has the time and energy to track his numbers in those games, right?  Let us know in the comments if you do.
4. Gary Parrish: not a fan of the Christian Drejer/Lucca Staiger method of doing business.  We think the lesson here is that coaches will have to carefully vet European players they’re recruiting to try to ensure they’ll have a modicum of loyalty to the school should an offer appear on the table back home midway through the season.
5. Luke Winn moves Kentucky up to #1 in his Power Rankings.  He refers to it in the Tennessee section (#7), but it’s worth noting that KenPom rates the Cats #13 in his latest rankings, in large part because the defensive efficiency is a pedestrian #36 in the nation (offensive efficiency is #11).  The biggest two drivers of that stat are the fact that UK doesn’t defend the three well (36%, #254) and doesn’t force a lot of turnovers (20.9%, #167).  This should be somewhat concerning for John Calipari, as his best Memphis teams (2006-09) all had superb defenses that consistently shut down the three-ball.  If/when Kentucky loses, expect it to be because of a hot shooting night from deep.

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Efficiency Differentials

The Atlantic 10 teams have played just over 20% of their conference schedule (as of Sunday, 1/17); every team has posted three or four games to the conference ledger. I might be a week (maybe?) early for conference-only efficiency differentials (offensive points per possession – defensive points per possession), but I was curious to see what the numbers and rankings could tell me now…

Xavier may have the most wins, but Temple has the largest positive differential. The Owls’ toughest win was on the road over Rhode Island (and a bit of a surprise because Rhode Island is ranked second), and that trumps the Musketeers’ home win over Dayton last Saturday (though that one is impressive given the progress Xavier has made since the beginning of the season). Are you surprised that, having absorbed a loss against Temple, the Runnin’ Rams of Rhode Island are ranked second? Consider that their next two opponents, Saint Joseph’s and Fordham, are #13 and #14 respectively. Blame the unbalanced nature of all conference schedules at this point in the season for a number of quirks. Rhode Island embarks on a two-game road trip, with stops in Cincinnati (Xavier) and Dayton, beginning on Saturday (1/23). That trip should clear up a few questions about Rhode Island, not to mention Dayton and Xavier. Even though it is early, the differentials do confirm that Saint Joseph’s and Fordham are struggling. That will most likely continue through the rest of the season.

Standings as of – 01/19/10

1. Xavier (4-0, 12-5)
2. Temple (3-0, 15-3, #17)
3. Richmond (3-1, 14-5)
4. Rhode Island (2-1, 14-2)
5. Dayton (2-1, 13-4)
6. St. Louis (2-1, 11-6)
7. Charlotte (2-1, 12-5)
8. La Salle (2-2, 9-8)
9. George Washington (1-2, 11-5)
10. St. Bonaventure (1-2, 9-8)
11. Massachusetts (1-3, 7-10)
12. Saint Joseph’s (1-3, 6-11)
13. Duquesne (0-3, 9-8)
14. Fordham (0-4, 2-14)

Team Breakdowns

Charlotte

Crushed in the first half 44-28, at Xavier, the 49ers rallied to “win” the second half 46-42, but it was not enough, however, as they came up on the short end of a 12-point decision 86-74 on Wednesday (1/13). Four starters, led by junior forward An’Juan Wilderness’ 15 points, scored in double digits. Charlotte beat Xavier on the boards 32-28, but that was not enough as the 49ers shot a terrible 9% from beyond the arc. They bounced back against St. Louis on Sunday (1/17) with a 63-61 overtime win in Halton Arena. Junior forward Shamari Spears played nearly 40 minutes and, along with freshman forward Chris Braswell, led all scorers with 16 points. Spears logged his seventh career double-double, the first with Charlotte. The win came with a price however, as senior forward RaShad Coleman suffered an avulsion fracture of the patella from the base of his left kneecap during the overtime period in the game. The senior, having taken an outlet pass from Dijuan Harris, put in a layup that gave Charlotte a 59-54 lead, but landed badly after. Most likely his career at Charlotte is over.

Next up for the 49ers is a trip to St. Louis for a game at the Chaifetz on Wednesday (1/20), followed by another trip to Philadelphia for a Saturday (1/23) game with La Salle.

Dayton

Luke Fabrizius’ 13 points led the Flyers over Fordham 74-58 on Wednesday (1/13). They shot an impressive 42% (8-19) from beyond the arc, as they posted their second conference win. Dayton traveled to Cincinnati and dropped their game at Xavier 78-74, on Saturday (1/16). Although they led at halftime 39-36, Coach Gregory’s squad could not hold off the Musketeers in the second half. Xavier came back to tie 39-all at the 19-minute mark of the second half, and the Flyers could not stop Kenny Frease from putting the Musketeers up by two with a layup on Xavier’s next possession. The two teams wrestled over the next four minutes, tying the score four times and exchanging the lead three more times before Xavier took over with about 14 minutes to play. Dayton’s Marcus Johnson shared scoring honors, 17 points, with his backcourt opponent, Terrell Holloway. Chris Johnson led rebounders (Dayton won the boards by a large margin — 48-28) with 16 and posted his third double-double of the season, and his second in the last three games. The Flyers lost their 26th straight game at Xavier, 78-74, on Saturday (1/16). Pushing a lead out to seven points twice in the first half, Dayton took a three point lead into the locker room. Coach Gregory’s squad fell behind by eight at the 2:51 mark of the second half, but after whittling Xaviers’ lead down to three with 0:48, they could not stop Jordan Crawford on Xavier’s next possession. They had it down to two with 0:03 left, but the change of possession foul put Terrell Holloway on the line, and the junior guard converted both free throws to ice the game. Marcus Johnson paced the Flyers with 17 points; he was one of four Flyers in double figures. Chris Johnson logged his third double-double of the season.

The Flyers will host George Washington on Wednesday (1/20), and then travel to Philadelphia for a game with the Saint Joseph’s Hawks on Saturday (1/23).

Duquesne

The Dukes dropped a double-overtime decision to St. Louis on Wednesday (1/13), 79-75. Damian Saunders played the entire 50 minutes (regulation plus two overtime periods) and paced Duquesne with a game-high 23 points on 9-21 (0-2, 9-19) and 5-7 shooting. Saunders made it a game-leading double-double, (his 14th of season, leading all of D1) as he also grabbed a game-high 17 (10-7-17) rebounds. Getting more offensive than defensive rebounds is unusual, and getting double-digit offensive rebounds more unusual still. Bill Clark notched his fifth career double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Melquan Bolding logged 5 minutes of the 50 minutes allocated by regulation and two overtime periods. Strep throat was blamed for a missed practice and the limited action. Bolding has yet to his stride, but the Dukes clearly need him now.

Duquesne will take to the road for a game with Rhode Island on Wednesday (1/20), then return home to host the Bonnies on Saturday (1/23).

Fordham

Fordham extended its consecutive loss run by two more over the last week. After dropping a 16-point decision (74-58) to Dayton, they lost to Rhode Island 85-67, an 18 point loss. Both were home games for the Rams, but there was no advantage for the Fordham Rams. Brent Butler, relying on volume shooting, scored 20 points on 18 attempts against Dayton. Chris Gaston secured eight rebounds, though the Flyers clearly outrebounded the Rams. Gaston logged his ninth double-double, as he paced Fordham with 29 points and 16 (10-6-16) rebounds on 13-24 (0-0, 13-24) and 3-6 shooting. Butler chipped in 19 points

Next up for Fordham is a visit with the Billikens in St. Louis on Wednesday (1/20), and then back to the Bronx to host the Temple Owls on Saturday (1/23).

George Washington

George Washington dropped a heartbreaker to the Explorers on Wednesday (1/13), 65-64 in Philadelphia. In a game decided on the very last possession, Aaron Ware scored four points in the last 1:08 to close the deficit to a single point. Damian Hollis forced a La Salle turnover with 0:08 on the clock, but Travis King left a three point attempt on the rim as time expired. Damian Hollis and Aaron Ware paced the Colonials with 17 and 16 points respectively. Hollis made his a double-double, the ninth of his career and his first this season, as he grabbed 10 rebounds.

The Colonials go to Dayton to play the Flyers on Wednesday (1/20), and then return to DC to host Richmond on Saturday (1/23).

La Salle

Dr. Giannini’s squad won a nail-biter against George Washington 65-64, on Wednesday (1/13). Down one  at the half, the Explorers outscored the Colonials 34-32 in the second half to take the decision. In a game that saw 11 ties and 12 lead changes, the Explorers took the lead for good, 61-59, on a Rodney Green layup with 2:43 remaining. The Explorers stretched their lead out to five, 65-60 on four made free throws. The Colonials closed with an Aaron Ware-one man scoring rush in the last 1:08, but La Salle survived. La Salle freshman center Aaric Murray led all scorers with 21 points on 9-11 (2-2, 7-9) and 1-1 shooting. Yves Mekongo Mbala and Rodney Green each chipped in double-digit points, 17 and 15 respectively. The Explorers could get no bounce out of the win however, as they dropped a road game 67-63, to Richmond on Saturday (1/16). In contrast to his effort against George Washington, Aaric Murray took the “high volume” shooting route to a double-double night. The freshman scored 19 points to go with his 15 (3-12-15) rebounds as he recorded his fourth double-double of the season, the first in conference play. Junior Jerrell Williams, who shot 6-9 (0-0, 6-9) and 2-2 scored his 14 points far more efficiently (66.7% – eFG%) than Murray did his 19 (42.5% – eFG%) or Green his 10 (41.8% – eFG%). Unfortunately Williams took only 19.1% of the shots when he was on the floor, to Murray’s 39.0% and Green’s 22.2%.

La Salle travels across town Wednesday (1/20) to play Big 5 rival Penn at the Palestra, then hosts Charlotte on Saturday (1/23).

Massachusetts

Their two-game road trip last week was disappointing. Derek Kellogg’s team is a bit young (at 1.24 years, they are ranked #304 out of 346, according to Ken Pomeroy’s Scout Page), but dropping an overtime decision by seven points to Richmond had to hurt. The Minutemen made up their three-point first half deficit, but despite having two possessions in the last minute, were unable to convert and take the win. They were outscored 17-10 in the extra period. Freshman Freddie Riley’s game-high 20 points paced Massachusetts for the second consecutive game. Senior guard Ricky Harris chipped in 17 points on a high volume 8-21 (1-6, 7-15) and 1-1 shooting.

The Minutemen will host St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (1/20), then take a break from conference play, travel to Texas and play the Baylor Bears of the Big 12, on Saturday (1/23).

Rhode Island

The Runnin’ Rams nickname was well earned as Rhode Island dispatched Saint Joseph’s by a 27-point margin, 101-74, on Wednesday (1/13). Senior forward Delroy James scored a career best 24 points on 8-12 (3-6, 5-6) and 5-8 night. Freshman guard Akeem Richmond also had a career night, nearly matching James’ 24 points with 21 of his own. Richmond shot 8-14 (5-8, 3-6) and 0-0 for an efficient 67.9% eFG%. They followed the Saint Joseph’s game with another impressive outing, an 85-67, 17 point win over the Fordham Rams, on Saturday (1/16). Senior guard Keith Cothran scored 26 points, while Lamonte Ulmer recorded a career-high 24 points to complement his double-double (14 rebounds). This was Ulmer’s third double-double of the season and the fifth of his career.

After hosting the Dukes on Wednesday (1/20), the Rams run off to Cincinnati, OH, for a game with Xavier on Saturday (1/23), the first game in a two game road trip that takes them to Dayton for a game with the Flyers on Tuesday (1/26).

Richmond

The Spiders came from behind to knot the Minutemen at 53 and force an overtime period last Wednesday (1/13). They had ceded a three point lead to Massachusetts but managed to outscore their young opponents 17-10 during overtime to seal the victory.  The Spiders’ scoring triumvirate of Kevin Anderson, David Gonzalvez and Justin Harper each scored double-digit points, 19, 16 and 12 respectively, to bring the win home. The Spiders followed that win with another, this one over La Salle, 67-63, on Saturday (1/16). Up by nine 38-29, at the half, the Spiders withstood an Explorer 6-2 run which brought the visitors to within 5, 40-35 with 16:34 to play. Another push by the Explorers trimmed the Spiders’ cushion to 2, 50-48 about 7:30 later. Coach Mooney’s squad gathered themselves, took a 5-2 run to build a seven-point cushion, and did not allow the Explorers to get closer than three thereafter. Anderson, Gonzalvez and Harper again led the Spiders, scoring 21, 12 and 11 points respectively. Sophomore Darrius Garrett gathered six rebounds to pace Richmond rebounders.

Richmond hosts Charlotte on Wednesday (1/20), then travel to George Washington for a Saturday (1/23) game.

Saint Joseph’s

Coach Martelli’s squad played three games in five days, going 1-2 in the process. On Wednesday (1/13) they traveled to Kingston, RI, and lost a 101-74 decision to Rhode Island. Darrin Govens (15), Garrett Williamson (14) and Charoy Bentley (10) scored double-digit points. The second road game was played in Olean, NY, 68-65 on Saturday (1/16) against St. Bonaventure. The upperclassmen, senior guards Darrin Govens and Garrett Williamson, along with junior forward Idris Hilliard led the way with 15, 12 and 12 points respectively. Hilliard hauled in seven rebounds, matching sophomore center Todd O’Brien’s efforts. How did O’Brien score 11 points while taking five field goal attempts? He lived at the line, taking 12 free throw attempts for his five FGAs. That is an FTA/FGA of 240.0%. O’Brien’s 12.0% offensive rebounding rate is very promising. The Hawks took a break from conference play to host Towson of the CAA conference on Monday (1/18). They beat the Pat Kennedy-coached Tigers 64-57 at the Hagan Arena on campus to hold their run of losses to two. Idris Hilliard led the way with 20 points on 8-12 and 4-5 shooting. Freshman Justin Crosgile helped with 13 points on 4-7 (3-5, 1-2) and 2-2 shooting. Senior Garrett Williamson added 12 points in 40 minutes of play.

The Hawks will host Dayton on Saturday (1/23), and then take a second break from conference play for a tilt with Big 5 rival Penn at the Palestra.

St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies recorded their first conference win, a 68-65 squeaker, on Saturday (1/16), complements of Saint Joseph’s. Michael Davenport, Andrew Nicholson and Malcolm Eleby powered St. Bonaventure’s offense with both volume and efficient scoring. Davenport matched his season high with 19 points with a 61.5% eFG% performance. He used his 32.9% shot rate (high for a D1 player) very efficiently garnering a 113.9 offensive rating. Eleby, with 10 points in 18 minutes of play, notching a 60.0% eFG% while taking 21.8% of the shots when he was on the court provided the Bonnies with a bit of efficiency. Nicholson converted efficiently (a 63.6 eFG%) and prolifically, scoring 16 points with 11 field goal attempts. His offensive efficiency (95.2) was hurt by a 26% turnover rate. Losing one in four of your possessions is a rally killer waiting to happen.

Coach Schmidt’s squad travels to Amherst on Wednesday (1/20), to play Massachusetts, then to Pittsburgh to play Duquesne on Saturday (1/23).

St. Louis

The Billikens completed a two game road swing last week. Good news greeted the squad at the first stop, as St. Louis defeated Duquesne 79-75 in overtime on Wednesday (1/13), but lost to Charlotte, 63-61 (also in overtime), at the second stop on Sunday (1/17). The best news of the trip may have been Australian Cody Ellis, a 6’8, 240 pound forward from Perth, Australia, who became eligible in time for St. Louis’ 1/9 game with Richmond. In his first three games Ellis has scored 10, 14 and 11 points. Ellis is not afraid to shoot, and for the offense-starved Billikens, that is not a bad thing. Kwamain Mitchell led St. Louis with 19 points, while Kyle Cassity chipped in 15. Ellis posted a double-double, garnering 11 rebounds to go with his 14 points. Versus Charlotte, Jon Smith, a 6’5 freshman forward paced St. Louis with a career-high 15 points. Three others, Kwamain Mitchell (12), Cody Ellis (11) and Willie Reed (10) scored 10 or more points in the losing effort.

St. Louis hosts Fordham on Wednesday (1/20), then take off a week. The Billikens return to action when they travel to Washington DC to play the Colonials of GWU on Wednesday (1/27).

Temple

Coach Dunphy’s squad climbed to #17 in the AP poll this Monday (1/17) and with good reason. Having dispatched the Penn Quakers in a Big 5 contest on Wednesday (1/13) 60-45, the Owls know they are halfway to the first Big 5 Championship of the decade. If the score doesn’t seem particularly impressive given the state of the Quaker program (Coach Glen Miller was fired earlier in the season), consider that Dunphy coached at Penn for 17 seasons, before moving over to Broad Street. And Penn’s interim head coach, Jerome Allen, played ball for Coach Dunphy’s Penn teams in the mid 1990s. Guard Ryan Brooks continued his run by posting a game-high 15 points. Point guard Juan Fernandez added 12 points. Temple returned to conference play with a win over visiting Massachusetts 76-64, on Saturday (1/16). Brooks and Fernandez were effective yet again, scoring 29 and 15 points respectively. Junior forward Lavoy Allen gathered 14 (5-9-14) rebounds.

The Owls host the Musketeers on Wednesday (1/20), and then off to the Bronx for a game against Fordham on Saturday (1/23).

Xavier

Xavier had a two-game home stand last week, leading off with a visit from Charlotte, whom they defeated 86-74 on Wednesday (1/13). Jordan Crawford led all scorers with 18 points, with support from Dante Jackson (14 points), sophomore guard Brad Redford (12 points) and Jason Love (10 points). They were not good hosts on Saturday (1/16) either, as the Musketeers beat Dayton 78-74, at the Cintas Center for the 25th time since 1981. Losing the lead at the 4-minute mark of the first half, Xavier went to the locker room down 3 39-36. The X-men knotted the score at the 19-minute mark of the second half, and retook the lead on the next possession on a Kenny Fraese layup. Over the next four minutes the game saw four ties and three lead changes, but the Musketeers took the lead for good at the 14:32 mark and did not look back. Xavier nursed a lead as high as six and as low as one through the last 14 minutes, closing the Flyers out with a mix of jumpers and layups, masking a shaky showing (4-6) at the free throw line. Dante Jackson led all scorers with 19 points on 6-13 (5-8, 1-5) and 2-2 shooting. Jordan Crawford (16), Terrell Holloway (15) and Jason Love (10) all chipped in at least 10 points apiece.

Coach Mack’s squad travels to Philadelphia for an early season meeting with Temple on Wednesday (1/20), then return home to host Rhode Island on Saturday (1/23). Hosting Dayton on 1/16, followed by these two opponents has made this an especially rough week for the Musketeers.

Games to Catch

• Richmond at Charlotte – Wednesday 1/20 — Is Richmond ready for the next step? A move up to the top spots in the conference won’t come until the Spiders can secure their home court and then go out and win on the road. With a home record of 7-0 and an efficiency differential of .215, Richmond would appear to have the first test covered. A road win over the 49ers would put them on the road to covering the second.
• Xavier at Temple – Wednesday 1/20 — The schedule maker must have seen something in the off season that most of us missed, as he (or she?) scheduled a second “sorting out” game in two weeks. The Musketeers travel to Philadelphia to play the Owls. Jordan Crawford should give Ryan Brooks all he can handle, and the Jason Love – Lavoy Allen matchup should be pretty good too.
• Rhode Island at Xavier – Saturday 1/23 — The Flyers last Saturday, the Owls on Wednesday and then the Rams the Saturday following. The Musketeers might be gunning for a 3-0 sweep (that would really scramble the A10 race), but 2-1 would be a good outcome. The Delroy James – Jason Love/Kenny Fraese matchup should be entertaining. Keith Cothran and Jordan Crawford might turn this into a game of HORSE.

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

First Night

The Atlantic 10, though large at 14 teams, maintains a 16-game conference schedule. Conference play can be scheduled easily into the 10 weeks between New Year’s and Conference Tournament Week (roughly the second week in March). Sixteen games in just under 10 weeks allows for about two conference games (more or less) with a spot or two for another out of conference game. This is good news for the Philadelphia teams (La Salle, Saint Joseph’s and Temple), because it allows them to schedule one of their Big 5 rivals (Penn) into the latter part of the season, thereby sustaining a bit of suspense in their annual City Series. If a 16-game season cannot accommodate a balanced schedule (A10 teams would have to play 26 games; the season most likely starting in late November), it can sustain the idea of an inaugural day of conference play. This season’s First Night fell on Wednesday, January 6, as eight teams opened their conference season with four games. A ninth team, Charlotte, finished out their out of conference season against Tennessee, and two others, La Salle and Xavier, opened their conference slate (against each other) on Thursday (1/7). Opening night winners included George Washington (over St. Bonaventure), Massachusetts (over Fordham), Richmond (over Duquesne) and Temple (over Saint Joseph’s).

Home Court Advantage

The records and efficiency differentials include both out of conference and any conference games played to last Sunday. Both Xavier and Richmond appear quite formidable at home, a bit of a contrast to their performance on the road. Games those two can pick up out of their own house will benefit their conference records greatly. For teams who dream of getting to conference’s upper division, maximizing the advantage provided by a home arena is crucial. Fans have turned out in large numbers and been very vocal for the hometown team. For Fordham, Saint Joseph’s, La Salle and Massachusetts, whose records suggest no significant advantage is given for home games, we find the notion is bolstered by a low differential. Rhode Island shows a strong winning record, but a weak differential advantage. The Rams need to rebound better and get a hand in the shooter’s face.  Temple is an enigma. The Owls show a better differential away from home rather than in Philadelphia. It seems the Kansas game (not to mention the seven point loss to St. John’s at the Palestra) left a few scars.

Standings (as of 01/12/10)

1. Temple (13-3, 2-0, #19 AP)
2. Xavier (10-5, 2-0)
3. Dayton (12-3, 1-0)
4. Charlotte (11-4, 1-0)
5. St. Louis (10-5, 1-0)
6. George Washington (11-4, 1-1)
7. Richmond (12-5, 1-1)
8. La Salle (8-7, 1-1)
9. Massachusetts (7-8, 1-1)
10. Saint Joseph’s (8-9, 1-1)
11. Rhode Island (12-2, 0-1)
12. Duquesne (9-7, 0-2)
13. St. Bonaventure (7-8, 0-2)
14. Fordham (2-12, 0-2)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

Coach Lutz’s squad closed their out of conference schedule with another road loss, this time to Tennessee on Wednesday (1/6). The score, 86-71, was especially disappointing given the suspension of four scholarship players on gun, achohol and drug charges the previous Friday. One would think the turmoil, the absence of a starter (Tyler Smith) a crucial rotation player (Cameron Tatum) and the primary backup point guard (Melvin Goins) would diminish the Vols’ effectiveness. The 49ers missed a good opportunity for a quality win as the Vols used to playing complementary roles to Tyler Smith stepped up to fill the void (and basket). Though Charlotte held a 3-point lead early (14-11), Tennessee took two 14-0 runs in the first half to put Charlotte back on its heels, and took a 51-29 lead into halftime. It got a little ugly at the end, as both Shamari Spears and Tennessee center Wayne Chism drew a technical with about 5:00 left in the 2nd half (Tennessee up 80-54). The 49ers returned home to host St. Bonaventure on Saturday (1/09). They beat the Bonnies 57-54 in a game not decided until the last minute. After Marquise Simmons dunked to cut the lead to one, a Bonnie turnover and foul put junior guard Charles Dewhurst on the line to settle matters. Dewhurst hit both free throws to push the lead to three with two ticks left.

Charlotte goes back to work on Wednesday (1/13) with a trip to Cincinnati, OH, and a game with Xavier. The 49ers will host St. Louis on Sunday (1/17), then travel to Richmond to play the Spiders the following Wednesday (1/20).

Dayton

The Flyers’s 6’6 Chris Johnson shared Player of the Week honors with Xavier’s Jordan Crawford. Johnson posted career-high points (26) and rebounds (20) as he led Dayton to a 78-72 overtime win at Duquesne in Dayton’s home conference opener on Saturday (1/9).

Dayton takes in the Big Apple on Wednesday (1/13) as they play Fordham at Rose Hill, then out to Cincinnati to take on Xavier on Saturday (1/13).

Duquesne

Duquesne opened conference play with a loss at the hands of Richmond, 80-68, on Wednesday (1/6). This was a home game for the Dukes, which makes it especially difficult. Coach Everhart’s squad then traveled to Dayton and dropped their second conference game to the Flyers, 78-72 (OT), on Saturday (1/9). Damian Saunders (21), Sean Johnson (14), Melquan Bolding (13) and Jason Duty (12) all scored in double digits. Saunders made it a double-double with 11 rebounds.

The Dukes host St. Louis Wednesday (1/13), then take a one week break to get ready for the Rhode Island Rams (1/20).

Fordham

The Rams opened on the road, dropping a 78-76 decision to Massachusetts last Wednesday (1/6). Brenton Butler led all scorers with 31 points on a very efficient 12-23 (6-11, 6-12) and 1-4 shooting. Chris Gaston (16) and Lance Brown (11) also scored double-digit points. Gaston logged his ninth double-double in this, his freshman season. Fordham then traveled to Philadelphia and lost their second A10 game to Saint Joseph’s, 82-69, at the Hagan. Freshman center Fahro Alihodzic, a 6’10, 235 pound native of Great Britain, scored a career-high 16 points in the losing effort.

Fordham will host Dayton on Wednesday (1/13), then Rhode Island on Saturday (1/16).

George Washington

The Colonials opened their A10 schedule with a road win, 78-71, over St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (1/6). Guard Lasan Kromah led all scorers with 23 very, very efficiently scored points on 9-11 (5-7, 4-4) and 0-0 shooting. Kromah’s eFG%, 104.5%, should turn a few heads (and change a few game plans) around the conference, and in fact earned Lasan the Freshman of the Week honors for January 10. A 65% eFG% is considered terrific. Coach Hobbs’ squad returned home and dropped their home opener to Xavier, 76-69, on Saturday (1/9). Damian Hollis led all scorers with 23 points on 8-22 (2-8, 6-14) and 5-6 shooting.

GW faces La Salle in Philadelphia on Wednesday (1/13), then takes a seven-day break to prepare for Dayton on Wednesday (1/20).

La Salle

Dr. Giannini’s Explorers opened at home against the Musketeers last Thursday (1/7), dropping their first conference game 68-62. A 20-2 second half run brought La Salle close, 54-56, but they could not get the next stop, and were shut out the final 2:03 of the game. The Rodney Green-Jordan Crawford duel went to the visitor, 22-20. The Explorers traveled to Massachusetts and beat the Minutemen 80-74 to square their conference record at 1. Freshman center Aaric Murray scored the team-high 18 points while teammate forward Jerrell Williams snagged 12 rebounds. Murray missed his fourth double-double of the season by a single rebound.

La Salle will host George Washington on Wednesday (1/13), and then travel to Richmond to play the Spiders on Saturday (1/16).

Massachusetts

Massachusetts beat Fordham, 78-76, to open their A10 schedule on Wednesday (1/6), then dropped a 80-74 decision to La Salle on Saturday (1/9). Senior guard Ricky Harris’ 21 points paced the Minutemen against Fordham, while freshman guard Freddie Riley did the honors against La Salle, scoring 21 points on 7-15 (6-14, 1-1) and 2-2 shooting.

The Minutemen travel to Richmond to play the Spiders on Wednesday (1/13), then to Philadelphia to play Temple on Saturday (1/16).

Rhode Island

The rankings above are deceptive. The Rams’ loss was to #19 ranked Temple 68-64 in overtime, on Sunday (1/10). A few ESPN/USA Today voters recognized the effort, as the Rams garnered 7 votes (#37 in the poll). Delroy James and Keith Cothran dominated the Rams’ offense, taking between them over 75% of the available shots when they were on the floor. That might have made defending them too easy. James had a relatively efficient 52.9% eFG% with a 1.05 PPWS. Cothran by contrast, had a rough night. The senior guard could muster only a 35.3 eFG% with a 0.82 PPWS. The Rams were very average on the offensive boards, and had difficulty keeping the Owls (i.e., Lavoy Allen) off the offensive boards.

Things should turnaround quickly, as the  Rams host Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (1/13), then travel to the Bronx to play Fordham on Saturday (1/16).

Richmond

Coach Mooney’s Spiders opened the A10 season with a two game road trip. First stop was Pittsburgh where the Spiders drubbed the Dukes 80-68, on Wednesday. David Gonzalvez led all scorers with 19 points. Gonzalvez and four other Spiders (Kevin Anderson 18; Ryan Butler 14; Justin Harper 12; Dan Geriot 11) all logged double-digit points. Next stop was St. Louis where the Spiders dropped a 5 point decision (63-58) to the Billikens on Saturday (1/09).

Richmond will host Massachusetts on Wednesday (1/13), then host the Explorers of La Salle on Saturday (1/16).

Saint Joseph’s

The Hawks dropped their first A10 game to crosstown (and Big 5) rival Temple 73-49, on Wednesday (1/06). No Hawk scored more than eight points, though two, sophomore guard Scott Prescott and freshman guard Carl Jones logged eight points. They managed to even the record with a visit from Fordham. They beat the Rams 82-69, on Saturday (1/09). Four Hawks managed to score more than 10 points (junior center Todd O’Brien with 20; senior guard Garrett Williamson with 10 and freshman guard Carl Jones with 15), with senior Darrin Govins leading the way with 21.

Saint Joseph’s takes on it’s second Ram in five days when they travel to Kingston, RI, to play Rhode Island on Wednesday (1/13). The road trip has one more stop, in Olean, NY as the Hawks take on the Bonnies on Saturday (1/16).

St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure opened the season as hosts to the Colonials, and dropped that decision 78-71, on Wednesday (1/6). Sophomore forward Andrew Nicholson scored 16 points to lead St. Bonaventure. Three other starters, all guards contributed 10 or more points to the effort. The Bonnies dropped their second A10 game, 57-54, this one on the road, to Charlotte, on Saturday (1/09). Freshman forward Marquise Simmons’ dunk brought the Bonnies to within a point, 55-54, with 0:45 left. Charlotte burned two 30 second timeouts and missed a jumper with 0:10 seconds left. A Jon Hall turnover and foul put a Charlotte junior guard on the line. Charles Dewhurst hit both free throws to push the lead back out to three with two seconds left.

The Bonnies will host St. Joseph’s on Saturday (1/16).

St. Louis

Coach Majerus’ squad hosted Richmond to open their A10 season, and beat the Spiders 63-58 on Saturday (1/9). Sophomore guard Kwamain Mitchell scored a team-high 16 points on 7-12 (2-3, 5-9) and 0-0 shooting. Also posting double digit points for the Billikens, sophomore forward Brian Conklin (12 points) and, playing in his first collegiate game, freshman forward Cody Ellis (10).

The Billikens hit the road for two games, the first at Duquesne on Wednesday (1/13), the second on Sunday (1/17) at Charlotte.

Temple

Temple opened their A10 slate by hosting, and beating Saint Joseph’s 73-46, on Wednesday (1/6). Their offense went through Juan Fernandez, Lavoy Allen and Ryan Brooks (as usual). Fernandez had a horrific night from the floor, going 0-10. He managed 4 rebounds, 2 assists (and 3 turnovers) and 3 steals in 33 minutes. The team as a whole converted at a 48.5% (eFG%), as Allen (with a double-double 20 and 11) and Brooks (13 points) were the heros. Sophomore Michael Eric scored 13 points in 15 minutes. They traveled to Kingston, RI, and beat the Rams 68-64 in overtime on Sunday (1/10). Fernandez was back in his zone, leading the team with 18 points on 7-16 (3-3, 4-13) and 1-2 shooting. Brooks contributed 16 points, just better than his season average 15.3, while Allen his second consecutive (and fifth of the season) double-double, with 16 points and 12 rebounds.

The Owls take a break from their conference schedule on Wednesday (1/13) as they play the Penn Quakers of the Ivy League (and Big 5) in the historic Palestra on Penn’s campus. On Saturday (1/16) it’s back to conference play as they host Massachusetts.

Xavier

Congratulations to Jordan Crawford who shared the A10 Player of the Week honors with Dayton’s Chris Johnson, for his efforts in X’s loss to Wake Forest on 1/3 and his 22 points in the Musketeers’ 68-62 win over La Salle last Thursday (1/7). The Musketeers traveled to Washington, DC, and beat the Colonials 76-69 on Sunday (1/10). Senior forward Jason Love led Xavier with 19 points.

Coach Mack’s squad hosts Charlotte on Wednesday (1/13), then Dayton comes calling on Saturday (1/16) for a noon (ET) game.

Games to Catch

• Charlotte at Xavier – Wednesday 1/13 — Charlotte wants to move up in the conference and has played well (forget about Tennessee) on the road. For the Musketeers to maintain their standing in the conference they need to hold serve at home. This one will pit Shamari Spears against Chris Wright in what should be a good matchup.
• St. Louis at Duquesne –  Wednesday 1/13 — Two teams fighting for a place in the A10’s upper division match up as the Billikens travel to Pittsburgh to play the Dukes. Coach Majerus’ very deliberate 4-out-1-in motion offense (about 64 possessions per game) matches against Coach Everhart’s uptempo style (about 71 possessions per game). St. Louis has not traveled well this season, an inexperienced squad the most likely cause. After starting hot, the Dukes have cooled down. Maybe rehabbed Melquan Bolding can help them regain momentum. Both teams play good defense, so the game may go to the team that can make a shot.
• Dayton at Xavier – Saturday 1/16 — Dayton was the preseason favorite, but Xavier had a surprisingly good out of conference run. Is this an instance of the Changing of the Guard, or of Some Things Never Change? Jordan Crawford and Chris Wright should be a lot of fun to watch.

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Looking Back/Looking Forward

The Atlantic 10 conference season has begun (literally) — the first games were played Wednesday 1/6, and next weekend will find virtually every conference team playing a conference schedule. How did the conference fare in the out of conference portion of the season? I have pulled together efficiency statistics from Ken Pomeroy’s web site and combined them with each team’s record (through January 5) and the difference of their offensive efficiency and their defensive efficiency (expressed as points per possession). To provide a context for the team’s won/lost record and efficiency difference, I have also provided (from Realtime RPI) each team’s current SOS (through January 4).

I did not credit St. Louis and St. Bonaventure with their in-season wins over their D2 opponents (Rockhurst and Le Moyne, respectively) because the possession-based stats from those games were not included in those team’s OOC stats, nor were they included in those teams’ SOS computation and ranking.

The order is mildly surprising — Temple remains at the top of the list, Kansas blowout notwithstanding, and Xavier holds the second spot, despite 4 losses. Some things never change it seems. Preseason favorite Dayton holds a very respectable spot, but I feel a little disappointed in that I thought the Flyers would do a little better, taking another game in Puerto Rico, or maybe the New Mexico game. Rhode Island‘s won/lost record appears to be confirmed by the Rams’ SOS, efficiency differential and recent results (their win over Oklahoma State last weekend). Richmond‘s SOS also invests credibility in their won/lost record and efficiency differential. It’s not clear from the table, but an element to factor when calculating the Spiders’ conference season prospects (and by inference, their postseason prospects) is their road record, where at 1-4, they seem overly sensitive to hostile environments. Optimism based on their out of conference records seems a bit premature for George Washington and Charlotte. Their efficiency differentials when juxtaposed with their respective SOSs, suggests these two teams may struggle in conference play. Charlotte was easily handled at Tennessee last night, while the Colonials will be tested early with a visit from Xavier this evening.

Standings as of 01/06/10

1. Temple (12-3) (#21 AP)
2. Rhode Island (12-1)
3. Dayton (11-3)
4. Charlotte (10-4)
5. George Washington (11-3)
6. Richmond (12-4) WC
7. Xavier (8-5)
8. Duquesne (9-6)
9. St. Louis (9-5)
10. St. Bonaventure (7-7)
11. La Salle (7-6)
12. Massachusetts (7-7)
13. St. Joseph’s (4-9)
14. Fordham (2-11)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

Charlotte thumped Mercer 91-80, last Wednesday (12/29), to close out 2009, but dropped a 9-point decision to Georgia Tech, 76-67, to open 2010 last Saturday (1/2). Dario Green and Shamari Spears led the 49ers with 23 points apiece against Mercer, but Green, with 31 points in 35 minutes of play, was only 1 of 2 Charlotte players (DiJuan Harris, with 13 points was the other) to score more than 10 points against the Yellow Jackets. The 42 point loss at Duke was embarrassing, but not fatal to Charlotte’s postseason prospects. The 49ers have a solid win at Louisville (#55 RPI). Coach Lutz’s squad missed three top 100 win opportunities, at Old Dominion (#41 RPI), and versus Georgia Tech (#63 RPI), and at Tennessee last night. They show no bad losses to this point. Perhaps an outstanding A10 record, combined with a strong showing at the A10’s postseason tournament will be enough to swing the Selection Committee. The Atlantic 10 Conference Offices recognized Dario Green as the co-player of the week and Chris Braswell as the co-rookie of the week.

The 49ers open their A10 slate on Saturday (1/9) when they host St. Bonaventure.

Dayton

Coach Gregory’s squad dropped their New Year’s Day game to New Mexico 68-66. Chris Johnson scored a team-high 21 points, 11 coming in the last 55 seconds of the game (three 3s and a 2). The Flyers were down seven when Johnson decided to make his run, but were not able (until Johnson’s last three closed the game) to cut the Lobos’ lead to less than four. Neither team was particularly efficient at converting possessions into points, but shot defense failed the Flyers as it did in the Kansas State game, and the Flyers could not keep the Lobos off the free throw line. New Mexico had nearly twice as many FTAs as Dayton. The Lobos took it to the cup at every chance, especially in the 2nd half. They were rewarded with over 1 FTA for every FGA they took (107.5), high even for the Lobos (see the New Mexico Game Plan page at Ken Pomeroy’s website). New Mexico earned 38.2% of their points at the line, high for a D1 team. Dayton did get votes in both polls Monday, enough to rank the Flyers #34 in the AP poll (placing them behind Temple and Rhode Island). With Tuesday’s 24-point blowout versus Ball State, 59-35, the Flyers close out their out of conference schedule with a 11-3 record. On a night when only three players logged more than 20 minutes (50% of the available playing time at their position), Chris Wright was the game-high scorer with 10 points. Coach Gregory emptied his bench and passed 14 different players through the game. Only two logged a minute of playing time, and a third logged less than five minutes. Postseason prospects will depend more heavily on their conference record than I anticipated in my season preview. The Flyers go into their conference slate with no signature (Top 25 RPI) wins. Their best wins are against Old Dominion (RPI #43 in Dayton) and Georgia Tech (RPI #63 in Puerto Rico). Their three losses are on the road or in neutral sites, all to top 25 RPI teams.

Dayton will host Duquesne in their A10 opener on Saturday (1/9).

Duquesne

The Dukes dropped a 9-point decision, 63-54, to the Monarchs of Old Dominion on Wednesday. Freshman guard Sean Johnson posted a career-high 17 points as he led the Dukes. Damian Saunders, Eric Evans and Bill Clark all scored in double digits as well, but the freshman posted an efficient 58.3% eFG% in the losing effort. The good news is that injured Melquan Bolding has been cleared to practice and will hopefully see some playing time in the next week or so. Odds for an NCAA invitation hang on a strong A10 record, which was given an early jolt with a loss at home to Richmond last night, 80-68. Given their difficulties on the offensive side of the ball (shot making, turnovers and very average offensive rebounding) against average (OOC) competition, I wonder how effective the Dukes will be in conference play. A relatively young team, they have struggled on the road (efficiency differential for road games is -0.147). That may not change much in conference play, despite Bolding’s return (remember he is not 100% nor is he in game condition at this point). The Dukes have a single notable (top 100 RPI) win, and that is against Radford (RPI #90). All of their losses are against top 100 teams. No ugly losses, but no signature wins (despite several chances) either.

Duquesne travels to Dayton to play the Flyers on Saturday (1/9).

Fordham

The Rams’ Southern Road Trip was a study in disappointment as Fordham dropped a 79-66 game to Kennesaw State last Tuesday (12/29) and another to Hampton, 78-54, on Sunday (1/3). Against Kennesaw State Chris Gaston (26) and Brenton Butler (25) scored 51 of Fordham’s 66 points. Against Hampton, Butler was the only double-digit scorer for the Rams, posting 21 points, about 38.9% of Fordham’s total production. Last night Fordham lost a 2-point heartbreaker at UMass.  Lacking consistent offense (Fordham is last in the A10 for offensive efficiency right now), prospects beyond Atlantic City are bleak. Ironically there are a number of A10 teams with worse defense, and even a few with worse offensive turnover rates and rebounding rates. But no team converts FGAs less efficiently than Fordham. Chris Gaston (who takes 37.4% of the team’s FGAs) and Brenton Butler (who takes 24.5%), their two principal threats, have eFG%s of 48.0 and 38.5 respectively, very tough conversion rates if the Rams expect to win. The Rams take about 69.2% of the FGAs as 2-point shots, which is pretty smart given they convert their 3s at a 24.2% rate. In other words they pose no serious threat from the perimeter. Defenses can collapse and concentrate on stopping lane penetration from Gaston (Butler takes 49.8% of his FGAs from beyond the arc). Hopefully Coach Grasso can use the season to experiment with the offense and develop/adopt a system that will make the most of the roster’s strengths, setting the foundation for next season. And Chris Gaston will decide he wants to be a part of the rebuilding. Gaston was named co-rookie of the week for the 2nd time this season.

Fordham will travel to Saint Joseph’s on Saturday (1/9).

George Washington

The Colonials were 1-1 on their New England Holiday Sojourn. After beating Holy Cross they dropped a 66-53 decision to Harvard on Wednesday (12/30). Damian Hollis scored 11 points (5-14, 0-6, 5-8 & 1-1) to lead George Washington. GW returned to Washington, DC, and beat Howard 81-63 on Saturday (1/2), paced again by Damian Hollis (18 points & 8 rebounds, both team-high) and Tony Taylor (13 points). Last night the Colonials got a 78-71 road win to open conference play against St. Bonaventure.  The 11-3 record looks promising, but it comes against competition with an SOS ranked #291. There are no signature wins in the offerings, with two of the three losses coming against their toughest competition (Harvard ranked #26 RPI & Providence, ranked #78 RPI). Their loss to Oregon State (#209 RPI) is bad. Against mediocre competition the Colonials have come to own the conference’s second worst (tied with Duquesne, ahead of only La Salle) turnover rate. They lost 21.9% of their possessions. Field goal efficiency is lower than the conference average, which, given GW’s SOS, raises a yellow flag for conference play. The Colonials have to rely on the strength of the conference (assuming they compile a good record in conference play) to bolster their credentials for the NCAA Selection Committee. Not a great plan.

Coach Hobbs’ squad will play their home opener against Xavier on Sunday (1/10).

La Salle

La Salle closed December with a loss to Ivy League favorite Cornell, then opened January with a catastrophe, a 5-point loss (66-61) to Binghamton on Saturday (1/2). Rodney Green’s 20 points (backed by Kimmani Barrett’s 17 points) was not enough to turn back the Binghamton Bearcats, shut down freshman Aaric Murray, limiting him to 4 (2-2-4) rebounds and 3 points over 33 minutes of play. The prospects for life after Atlantic City are bleak at this point. Though their resume lacked a signature win, the Explorers could at least plead their losses as having all been at the hands of top 100 teams. Until the Binghamton Bearcats. Like George Washington, La Salle will have to create a (NCAA) tournament-worthy resume on a strong conference showing. Risky business that may rely too heavily on a conference tournament run that would require an adjective like “miraculous,” “magical” or “remarkable” to accurately describe the effort.

The Explorers open their A10 season on Thursday (1/7) as they host Xavier. The squad will then take to the road for a game at Massachusetts on Sunday (1/10).

Massachusetts

Coach Kellogg’s squad dropped a 2-point decision to Davidson, 63-61, on Wednesday (12/30). Senior guard Ricky Harris and junior guard Anthony Gurley split the scoring duties, posting 21 and 17 points respectively. Sophomore center Sean Carter collected 10 rebounds (4-6-10), matching a career-high. Last night the Minutemen got a solid home win to begin conference play versus Fordham.  If tournament prospects are bleak, the Minutemen’s progress from this time last season is encouraging. The team headed into conference play with a 5-8 record, as opposed to this season’s 6-7 record. As the table below suggests their offense improved in the face of poorer shooting, on the strength of better rebounding, improved ball handling and more aggression getting to the basket. Massachusetts’ record would be (much) better if they had garnered 2009’s defensive numbers. Progress for the Minutemen might be better measured in getting more road wins and asserting a stronger home court advantage (and improving those defensive numbers), rather than post season bids.

Massachusetts will host La Salle on Sunday (1/10).

Rhode Island

Rhode Island continued to build it’s resume with a 4-point win over Oklahoma State, 63-59, on Saturday (1/2). Played more like a chess game than a basketball game, the teams took 61 possessions each (a pace more to Ok State’s liking than Rhode Island’s). If the game was not an offensive masterpiece, the Rams nevertheless posted some of their best defensive numbers of the season, as they limited the Cowboys to 0.97 points per possession and exploited the Cowboys systemic lack of rebounding. Delroy James, Keith Cothran and Stevie Mejia all posted double digit points, with Delroy leading the way with 14 points and 9 (7-2-9) rebounds. The effort did not go unnoticed, as the Rams upped their 5-vote 12/28 total in the AP poll to 52 votes in the current (1/4) poll. They need another 95 or so votes to break into the Top 25. Given their 5-point road win, 68-63, at Akron on Tuesday (1/5) perhaps a few more voters will remember them on their ballots next Monday. With 4 wins over top 100 RPI teams (Oklahoma State — #36, Northeastern — #67, Providence — #77 and Boston College on the road — #100) against a single loss (also to a Top 100 RPI team, a road loss to VCU — #37), Rhode Island has used their out of conference schedule to position themselves very well for postseason consideration. A strong showing in conference play (1 – 3 losses versus the better competition) should have them in the NCAAs.

Coach Baron’s squad opens their A10 schedule Sunday by hosting a marquee opponent, Temple, in a game that should have immediate repercussions in the conference race.

Richmond

The Spiders dropped a New Year’s Eve overtime decision at Wake Forest (74-68), Kevin Anderson leading the way with a career-high 31 points. Justin Harper was the only other Richmond player to post double-digit points as he scored 10 points on 3-8 (2-4, 1-4) and 2-4 shooting. They swung north to Lewisburg, PA to beat the struggling Bison of Bucknell on Saturday (1/2) 59-50, Anderson again led the team in scoring (the 7th time in 15 games) with 25 points on 9-17 (2-5, 7-12) and 5-7 shooting. Starting forwards Justin Harper and Ryan Butler chipped in 13 and 11 points respectively. Coach Mooney’s squad picked up four quality wins (ODU — #42, Mississippi St — #69, Missouri — #71 and Florida — #76) in their out of conference schedule. Their four losses, all to Top 100 RPI opponents were missed opportunities, one or two of which (that 20 point loss to South Carolina for example?) might be cause for regret come Selection Sunday. Their defense has been surprisingly effective (ranked #4 in the conference versus the #6 most difficult schedule) suggests they can do well in conference play if they can find a little more offense (calling David Gonzalvez…). Congratulations to Kevin Anderson who was named co-player of the week by the Atlantic 10 Conference. The article cited his career-high against Wake Forest and his point total against Bucknell.

Richmond opened their A10 schedule with another extended road trip that matches them against two of the A10’s youngest teams. First stop was Pittsburgh where Richmond handled Duquesne easily (80-68) Wednesday, followed with a stop in St. Louis for a play date with the Billikens on Saturday (1/9). Richmond has struggled in other team’s arenas; this trip will be a good test to see where they stand in the conference.

Saint Joseph’s

St. Joseph’s started a new losing streak, currently standing at two, as they dropped a game to Princeton over the weekend (Saturday 1/2) 70-62, at home. An Alpha and Omega combination, freshman Carl Jones came off the bench to lead the Hawks with 17 points on 6-13 (1-5, 5-8) and 4-5 shooting, coupled with starting senior Darrin Govens who chipped in 13 points on 5-14 (1-6, 4-8) and 2-2 shooting, led the team in scoring. Coach Martelli is working with a young team this season, and it is clear from the out of conference record that this will be a rebuilding year. With a 3-2 home record, the first step may be to establish a home court advantage in conference. And develop those young guards.

The Hawks open their A10 schedule with three games in 8 days. First they flew across town to get waxed by the Temple Owls last night 73-46, then they host Fordham on Saturday (1/9) and travel to Kingston, RI, to play Rhode Island the following Wednesday (1/13).

St. Bonaventure

Coach Schmidt’s squad beat Little Three rival Canisius 82-75, on Wednesday night (12/30). Jon Hall posted a 20 point night, leading the Bonnies. Hall grabbed 7 rebounds and dished 6 assists (and 0 turnovers) to boot. Chris Matthews notched 15 points. In all, five St. Bonaventure players scored double-digit points. They closed out their out of conference schedule on a down note, falling to Marshall 80-61, in Huntington, WV, on Saturday (1/2). While the Bonnies’ efficiency stats, both offensive and defensive, are good, their 6-6 record juxtaposed with their efficiency difference of 0.044, suggests they lack game-to-game consistency. The Bonnies are about a year (and a sure-handed point guard) away from the postseason. Among their six losses, only the Niagara loss (the Purple Eagles are ranked #114 in the RPI) is considered bad.

St. Bonaventure lost at home to George Washington on Wednesday 78-71, and will then travel to Charlotte to play the 49ers on Saturday (1/9).

St. Louis

The Billikens closed out their out of conference slate with a loss to Bowling Green, 59-50, on the road. Kwamain Mitchell and Ohio-native Jon Smith paced St. Louis with 13 and 11 points respectively. The Billikens’ record as the visitor in hostile arenas is 0-2 (true a small sample, but not because of NCAA scheduling). And for a postseason bid, therein lies the rub. A 9-0 home record (that includes a win over D2 Rockhurst) will not impress the Selection Committee, especially if compared to their 0-4 record when playing away from Chaifetz Arena.

St. Louis opens their A10 season with a home game against Richmond on Saturday (1/9), followed by a road game at Charlotte the following Wednesday (1/13).

Temple

The Owls closed out 2009 with another win, this one at Northern Illinois. Temple sports a 4-0 record versus MAC opponents (can they claim the conference’s automatic bid?). It was Juan Fernandez’s turn to go off, and the Argentine put up 26 points on 7-12 (4-7, 3-5) and 8-8 shooting. Ryan Brooks put up 19 points on 7-18 (0-6, 7-12) 5-7 shooting. Lavoy Allen harvested (4-7-11) 11 rebounds. The Kansas Jayhawks ran them out of the Liacouras Center Saturday (1/2), hanging an ugly 32 point loss (84-52) on the Owls. Kansas dominated the boards (43 vs 31) and outshot Temple (30-55 versus 16-64) badly enough to negate a very modest turnover advantage held by the Owls.

Coach Dunphy’s squad hosted the Hawks of Saint Joseph’s Wednesday night and handled them easily, 73-46, and will then travel to Kingston, RI, to tackle the Rams of URI Sunday (1/10). The following Wednesday (1/13) Temple will take care of some Big 5 business as they take on the Penn Quakers at the historic Palestra on Penn’s campus.

Xavier

The X-men lost to Wake Forest Sunday (1/3) in the inaugural play of the Skip Prosser Classic, dropping a 4-point decision, 96-92, after 2 overtimes. Jordan Crawford led all scorers with a career-high 31 points, while Jamel McLean and Terrell Holloway chipped in 21 and 13 points apiece. Despite lacking the seasoning playing together several seasons might provide, Xavier has done well with a demanding out of conference schedule. The offensive/defensive differential (+0.144) ranks the Musketeers second in the conference despite the loss of five games. Though they lack a Top 25 win and have a loss to Marquette (RPI rank #108), Xavier’s prospects in conference seem good, and a resume-building signature win in conference (Temple and Rhode Island offer opportunities) is possible. Going into conference play the Musketeers sport an 0-2 record against Top 25 competition, and a 2-2 record versus top 100 competition.

XU will travel to Philadelphia to open their A10 season Thursday (1/7) at La Salle, then extend the road trip with one more stop, in Washington DC to play George Washington in Sunday (1/10), before returning home to Cincinnati to host Charlotte the following Wednesday (1/13).

Games to Catch

• Xavier at La Salle Thursday 1/7 — Had La Salle had a better out of conference showing, this early season matchup would have garnered some national attention. For those who have not seen La Salle’s Rodney Green and Aaric Murray and Xavier’s Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway, this one might be worth a look. (CBS College Sports)
• Richmond at St. Louis Saturday 1/9 — The best of Saturday’s three conference games, the Billikens have been tough at Chaifetz Arena, but the Spiders need some road wins if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive. Both coaches have installed complex, motion-based offenses (Moody is a Princeton Offense coach, Majerus is a 4 out 1 in motion coach) that when working properly, can be very efficient. This one should remind spectators of a chess game played with a ball and five players per side.
• Temple at Rhode Island Sunday 1/10 — Starts off the conference slate with a bang, the consensus two best teams coming out of their out of conference schedules lock horns in the 1st weekend of full conference play. (Cox Cable).
• Xavier at George Washington Sunday 1/10 — A significant game for both teams. Xavier does not want to fall too far this season, but GW wants to recover the standing they had three seasons ago. The Musketeers have not traveled well in the out of conference season, so this game, as the closer on their extended road trip, can help set a different tone on the squad. If the Colonials hope to regain their standing, defending the home court is a first step. (CSS, FSN Ohio & Comcast Sportsnet).