
What a Thursday — there’s no possible way that Friday could ever match it, right? We won’t know until we start playing the games.
#4 Texas vs. #13 Oakland – West Region Second Round (at Tulsa, OK) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS
On one end of the court, this figures to be a terrific matchup, as Texas is Ken Pomeroy’s most efficient defensive team in the nation, and Oakland is his 13th most efficient offensive team. The Longhorns limit their opponents to effective field goals of 42% while the Grizzlies shoot it at over 56%. And Oakland wants to get up and down the floor, while Texas plays at a more middling pace. In short, a battle between a great defensive team and a great offensive team. Keith Benson is the big man in the middle for Oakland, and his battles with Texas freshman Tristan Thompson inside could be illuminating, but the Grizzlies also get plenty of offensive production from junior point Reggie Hamilton (17.4 PPG, 5.4 APG), senior power forward Will Hudson (12.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and freshman guard Travis Bader (10.5 PPG, 2.7 3PG, 45.8 3P%). Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, they’ll also have to defend in order to win this game, and they’ve not been a good defensive team. They don’t force a lot of missed shots, they don’t do a great job rebounding what shots are missed and they don’t even force turnovers to make up for those deficiencies. They’ll need to rely on some combination of an out-of-their-minds defensive performance and an extra-special-bad shooting effort from the Longhorns in order to stick around. Despite the fact that Texas has played at a slower pace than Oakland this year, the Longhorns ability to play at a faster pace could be a key for them to put away this Grizzlies. Dogus Balbay and Cory Joseph are more than capable of getting Texas up and down the court, and Thompson and front-court mate Gary Johnson are comfortable getting out and running too, as are wings Jordan Hamilton and J’Covan Brown. While Oakland is use to picking up the pace, getting the more athletic Longhorns into a running game could spell their demise.
The RTC Certified Pick: Texas.
#8 Michigan vs. #9 Tennessee – West Region Second Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 12:40 pm ET on truTV.
The Volunteers started the season strong, with their wins over Villanova and Pitt, two of the better wins in the nation in the first month of the season. And since then there has long been the perception that they were a lock for the Tournament, regardless of the ups and downs they had the rest of the season. For the Wolverines, they were mostly counted out after a six-game losing streak left them at 1-6 in their conference and just barely over .500 on the season. As a result, when this matchup was announced on Selection Sunday, there were those who thought Michigan got a gift, while the Vols may have been a bit under-seeded. Closer examination reveals a Michigan team that should be favored here, based on their resume. However, Tennessee may have the two best players in the game on Friday, and if Michigan has trouble matching up defensively with freshman forward Tobias Harris and junior wing Scotty Hopson, they could have trouble. The Wolverines rely on sophomore point guard Darius Morris to run the team, make good decisions and find shooters like Tim Hardaway Jr., Zack Novak, Stu Douglass and Evan Smotrycz to knock down their threes, while freshman big man Jordan Morgan mans the paint. Given that the Vols specialize in hitting the offensive glass, grabbing 37.9% of their misses, Morgan will be on the spot and he’ll need to get help from guards and wings in limiting UT to one shot. Michigan will limit possessions and take care of the ball, but when all is said and done, their inexperience (they’re in the bottom 3% in Ken Pomeroy’s weighted experience rating) and lack of size may doom them in a close game.
The RTC Certified Pick: Tennessee.
#2 Notre Dame vs. #15 Akron – Southwest Region Second Round (at Chicago, IL) – 1:40 pm ET on TBS.
Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish have had a dream season in a year where not all that much was expected. A run to a 14-4 record and a second place finish in the regular season of the nation’s toughest conference resulted in a #2 seed in the NCAAs and a first round matchup against another midwestern team with aspirations of playing Cinderella. The Irish offense, the third most efficient in the nation, starts with Ben Hansbrough’s all-american numbers of 18/4/4 APG and continues on through Tim Abromaitis’ 15/6 and Carleton Scott’s 12/7. These three players are bloody murder on a defense, combining for 199 threes over the course of the season and hitting them at a 41.8% clip, causing defense to extend well beyond their comfort zones in trying to guard these shooters. The three-point attack, of course, sets up a drive-and-dish game with the clever Hansbrough sometimes opting to drive to the rim in the hopes that the defense collapses so that he can find one of his teammates for the easy look from outside the arc. Akron, with 7’0 sophomore Zeke Marshall in the middle, will be better situated than most to crowd the Irish shooters, knowing that Marshall (and his 2.5 blocks per game) is waiting inside to erase any mistakes; with a deep group of experienced players at the disposal of Zip head coach Keith Dambrot, we don’t expect that his team will get rattled. The key to this game will be whether Notre Dame is hitting their usual shots — and if they are, the Irish will advance. If not, Akron has just enough talent and motivation to make things quite interesting. We think Hansbrough will make the difference, though.
The RTC Certified Pick: Notre Dame
#8 George Mason vs. #9 Villanova – East Region Second Round (at Cleveland, OH) – 2:10 pm ET on TNT.
Here are two teams entering the NCAA Tournament going in opposite directions. Before George Mason’s winning streak was snapped in the CAA Tournament against VCU, the Patriots hadn’t lost since January 8. On that same date, Villanova was riding high at 13-1 and ranked in the top ten before going a meager 8-10 to close out the campaign, giving Wildcat fans painful flashbacks to last year’s late-season collapse. Jay Wright’s team is struggling all over the floor; senior guard Corey Fisher is mired in a month-long shooting slump and Maalik Wayns has just started to make shots with any consistency in the last two games. Villanova only shoots 35% from three on the season and Mason is one of the best teams in the nation at defending the three. Quite simply, Nova needs their senior Fisher to shake off the cobwebs and spring for 20-25 points for the Wildcats to have a fighting chance, not only with his outside shooting but also his penetration ability and proficiency at the charity stripe. The Patriots have a multitude of weapons in their offensive arsenal from floor leader Cam Long to versatile big man Ryan Pearson and shooting threat Andre Cornelius. Villanova will need a strong defensive effort to limit a Mason attack that’s supremely efficient, rarely turns the ball over and shoots the three at a 40% clip. Unless the game is decided at the free throw line late, Mason is stronger across the board than their Big East counterparts. They’re confident, playing at a high level and have executed on both ends of the floor all season. Sounds like the opposite of a Villanova team that’s once again sliding in March.
The RTC Certified Pick: George Mason.
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