The Road Ends Here, states the signs on the Reliant Center and around the city of Houston this weekend, so we think we’re in the right place.  The unlikeliest of Final Fours will commence on Saturday evening, so it’s time for our game analysis and picks.  Check back Monday morning for the final edition. 

#8 Butler vs. #11 VCU – National Semifinal (at Houston, TX) – 6:09 pm ET on CBS.

The New Krzyzewski is Back in the Final Four.

 Butler is back in the Final Four but what they see on the other side of the court may look familiar. VCU is playing Cinderella this season, the same shoes the Bulldogs filled last year in Indianapolis. The Rams have dismantled four of their five NCAA Tournament opponents during their improbable tournament run, including Kansas in their most recent game. Shaka Smart’s team has increased its level of play by a wide margin in this tournament and will look to “Shaka the World,” as one VCU t-shirt says, in Houston. As if they haven’t already. VCU is a team that didn’t even expect to be in the field, choosing not to watch the Selection Show three weeks ago. Yet here they are, two wins away from a national title with the national spotlight squarely on them. To get to Monday night and a date with either Connecticut or Kentucky, the Rams need to keep doing what they’ve been doing so well in this tournament: shoot the three, defend, and force turnovers. Remarkably, VCU has been outrebounded in four of their five NCAA Tournament games. USC was the only team that couldn’t pull down more boards than the Rams, a stunning fact given how far they’ve advanced. How have they done it? VCU has shot 43.8% from deep behind Bradford Burgess and company, held four of their five opponents under 40% shooting and recorded a +23 turnover margin (+4.6 per game). By contrast, Butler is in this position thanks to clutch plays by experienced players such as Shelvin Mack and a fantastic tactician on the sideline. Brad Stevens’ bunch has won four tournament games by a total of 13 points, three of them by six total points. To beat VCU, Butler must defend the three well and protect the basketball. They’ve done a nice job of that in the NCAAs thus far, allowing only 30.4% from deep in tournament play while committing 11 turnovers per game over the same stretch. That 30.4% mark against the three ball would rank #13 nationally if it were a season average, giving you a strong indication of just how well they’ve defended recently. As it is, Butler ranks #65 in three point defense at 32.4% on the season. Both clubs rely on the trey for a large portion of their offense so expect many deep shots to be launched. The key defensive matchup will be Butler’s Ronald Nored against VCU point guard Joey Rodriguez. Nored made it a habit of frustrating opposing guards in last year’s magical run to the title game and he’s doing it again this year. If Nored can get in Rodriguez’s grill and disrupt the flow of the VCU offense, open three-point looks may become harder to come by. Rodriguez averages 5.1 APG but the Rams could grind to a halt if he is locked up by Butler’s ace defender. It is unlikely that VCU will enjoy a significantly positive turnover margin against a Bulldogs team that protects the ball fairly well and even more unlikely that the Rams will outrebound Butler. Therefore, Nored may hold the key that opens the door for Butler to advance to their second consecutive championship game. VCU, specifically Burgess and Brandon Rozzell, has to keep making threes to have a chance to win this game. On the interior, Matt Howard and Jamie Skeen will battle it out. Skeen is more athletic but these forwards have similar games. They can score in the paint or from the perimeter but Howard is more physical. Skeen hasn’t shown the aggressiveness needed to battle junkyard dog players like Howard in the post at times this season, instead relying on his athleticism and finesse to overcome his opponents’ physicality. He must be able to bang with Howard and hopefully, for VCU’s sake, get him in early foul trouble. On paper this looks like a very close game. We don’t expect anything different but the edge has to go to Butler. Experience matters a lot when you get this deep into the tournament and the Bulldogs have obviously been here before. Given the way last year’s season ended for them, they are probably playing with a chip on their shoulder as well. Butler has all the motivation in the world to get to the title game while, subconsciously, VCU is just happy to have made it this far. By no means are we saying VCU doesn’t care about getting to Monday night (they do), but we’re worried about how they’ll react in a tight situation down the stretch of a close game with the eyes of the world focused on them. Butler has been through this drill last year and during the tournament this season, plus they have tough-as-nails players like Mack and Howard. Add in Stevens, the master strategist, and you have the recipe for success in a national semifinal. We wouldn’t be surprised if VCU wins, but we can’t pick against Butler here in what looks to be a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.

The RTC Certified Pick: Butler.

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Over the weekend, four different schools of all shapes and sizes earned a berth into the 2011 Final Four.  From a historic blueblood to a modern one, a young upstart and a complete shock to the system, Kentucky, Connecticut, Butler and VCU are each a game away from the rare opportunity to play on Monday night. If you see/find any other good ones this week, send them to us at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Kentucky Fans Will No Doubt Bum-Rush Houston

VCU

We have no idea how someone got together a rap song to celebrate VCU’s Final Four run along with a pretty solid editing job, but here it is.  It’s really worth watching through to the end.

Butler

The Bulldogs held a 2 am pep rally in the venerable Hinkle Fieldhouse late Saturday night/Sunday morning.  The best part?  Matt Howard (we think?) talking about getting the “real call” from President Obama, and not the “runner-up call.”

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If today’s games are at all similar to yesterday’s regional finals, we might just have to order an entirely new wardrobe of boxers.  Only one way to find out…

 

Two regional final games and not a #1 seed in sight.  But don’t be alarmed, because there’s plenty of pedigree here.  Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Butler — it reads better that you might expect for a #2, #3, #5 and #8 seed, right?  That’s because they probably are.

There’s just a single #1 seed remaining as we head into Elite Eight weekend.

#2 Florida vs. #8 Butler – Southeast Region Finals (at New Orleans, LA) – 4:30 pm ET on CBS.

It has come down to this for Butler. One more win and the Bulldogs will head to their second consecutive Final Four after a lot of folks had them losing to Old Dominion in the first round. For Florida, they’re one win away from making it to the big show for the first time since their 2007 national championship, their second in as many years. Brad Stevens and Butler have fueled this run by taking their foot off the gas. Butler is playing at a slower pace but forcing more turnovers and that will again be a key today as it was on Thursday against Wisconsin. Butler forced the Badgers into 11 turnovers, three more than their season average of eight. A similar effort against Florida (12 turnovers per game) could be the difference and subsequently send Butler to Houston. The Gators became three-happy against BYU but survived the Cougars in overtime. Florida can’t fire up 34 threes again and expect to beat Butler, a team that defends the three better than they do inside the arc. Ronald Nored and Shelvin Mack will do a better job defensively than Jimmer Fredette did on the Florida guards and the Gators still shot only 32.4% from deep in the BYU game. The vast majority of Florida’s production comes from their five starters, all players that were around last year. Billy Donovan’s team is experienced in terms of their age and class but this group has never been in this position before. Butler has, and that should give them an edge in crunch time. Florida must work the ball inside because that’s when they’re at their best, controlling pace and creating good looks. The Gators feature the versatile Chandler Parsons along with Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus (coming off a career game) inside while Butler will go with the foul-prone Matt Howard and Andrew Smith who suffered a nasty ankle roll on Thursday but is considered “likely” to play according to Stevens. The Florida bigs are quicker and should enjoy an edge in the paint if successfully utilized by guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton. If Walker and Boynton shoot too many threes and ignore the paint, Butler will win this game. Stevens’ main concern likely is Florida’s potential to do damage in the post making it vital that Howard stay out of foul trouble and Smith remains a presence despite his injury. The Bulldogs must prevent Florida from dominating inside because the Gators will control the boards and the pace of the game if allowed to operate with little resistance under the basket. Butler ranks #19 in defensive rebounding percentage and has to keep Florida off the offensive boards. As we said, Florida is at their best when working in the paint and second chance opportunities can jump start their confidence. The Gators have more depth inside so Garrett Butcher or Khyle Marshall may be needed for some important minutes off the bench to spell Howard and Smith. Butcher came up big against front court heavy Old Dominion and it is players like him who often have solid games to push their team over the top with a lot on the line. Keep an eye on Butler’s three point shooting. If they can’t get anything going from deep against the Florida perimeter defense (allowing only 31.3%), the Bulldogs won’t be able to spread the floor or create open looks inside. This game could come down to the very end making free throws crucial. Butler would have an advantage if it comes to that. While Florida has a slight edge in terms of matchups and talent, Butler has the experience that is such a valuable asset this deep into the tournament. We think they may be able to overcome the matchups and do just enough to keep the Bulldog train chugging along to Houston.

The RTC Certified Pick: Butler.

#3 Connecticut vs. #5 Arizona – West Region Finals (at Anaheim, CA) – 7:05 pm ET on CBS.

The easy storyline here is Kemba Walker vs. Derrick Williams. Two All-Americans, two larger-than-life basketball players, each player coming off dominating performances in the regional semifinal which helped his team knock off their higher-seeded opponent. And there are plenty who will tell that story. But the fact is, rarely, if ever, will those two players be matched up one-on-one on the court. And given how important each star’s supporting cast was on each team’s trip to this place, to this game, that’s not enough of the story. Take Arizona, for instance. In the first half of their win over Duke on Saturday, Williams scored more than 65% of his team’s points, and he was the only thing in the way of a Blue Devil blowout. In the second half, however, he scored less than 13% of his team’s points. Two other Wildcats (Jamelle Horne and Kevin Parrom) equaled Williams’ second half output, while Solomon Hill exceeded it with ten points, and Momo Jones doubled it, with 14. As a result, the Wildcats played what was likely their best half of basketball this season. Earlier, Walker had gotten plenty of support himself, as freshman Jeremy Lamb tied a career-high with 24 points, while fellow freshmen Roscoe Smith (five points, eight rebounds) and Shabazz Napier (six assists) and sophomore big man Alex Oriakhi (five points, nine rebound) helped get the Huskies over the top. The lesson is that while Walker and Williams are players capable of putting their teams on their backs, the collective is much better off when the stars don’t need to do that. As a result, this game may be decided not by which star has the bigger game, but which star gets the greatest contributions from his supporting cast. Now that’s not to say that Jim Calhoun and Sean Miller aren’t spending quite a bit of time this evening trying to figure out the best ways to control the opposition’s elite talent. Expect the Wildcats to start with Jones, who has proven himself a strong defender over the past month or so, on Walker, trying to send him to the inside of the court on penetration where additional Wildcat defenders can help out, and preferring that he shoot from deep rather than get penetration. On the other end, the Huskies will likely shift around trying to find the right matchup for Williams between Oriakhi, Smith and others, ready to send a double-team when necessary. Both teams would much rather that the “other guys” beat them, rather than the stars. And both coaches are preparing those “other guys” to do just that. In a tight game, however, I think the Wildcats have just a couple more options than the Huskies, giving Sean Miller a little better chance to shuffle the cards a bit and find the right combination. That, coupled with what should be a pro-Arizona crowd should give the Wildcats the tiniest of advantages.

The RTC Certified Pick: Arizona.

Last night surely didn’t disappoint, with two games going down to the wire in the early session and a Duke-struction in the second session.  Tonight’s games are heavy on the Cinderella factor, which could be a good or a bad thing, depending on your perspective.

#2 North Carolina vs. #11 Marquette – East Regional Semifinal (at Newark, NJ) – 7:15 pm ET on CBS.

Marshall Makes the Carolina Attack Dangerous

Vegas lists Carolina as only a 4-point favorite heading into the first of two excellent matchups in the Newark regional, but we anticipate a much steeper climb for Marquette than the bookmakers anticipate. The daunting challenge for Buzz Williams will be finding some way to contain the Carolina bigs on the offensive end, notably 6’11 John Henson and 7’0 Tyler Zeller. The Golden Eagles are perennially undersized and plain old toughness and heart can only carry a team so far against superior talents that hold considerable physical advantages. Moderately-used sophomore Chris Otule is the only Marquette player that stands above 6’8 and he must have a career night defensively against either Henson or Zeller. Williams will likely send double teams in the post to aid his forwards in post-up situations just as they did with tremendous success against Syracuse’s Rick Jackson. Sagging off shooters to help in the post could coax the Heels into taking a few too many outside jumpers beyond the arc, a spot on the floor where UNC shoots just 33% on the campaign. Also look for Marquette to attempt the slow the tempo and keep the game in the halfcourt to neutralize Kendall Marshall’s outstanding passing ability in secondary break situations. If Carolina gets off to their usual slow start in the first ten minutes, falls into a shooting funk and one of Henson/Zeller slips into foul trouble, pulling off the upset is a possibility. That’s a lot of ifs. Not only does Carolina hold a considerable advantage down low, but also at the all-important point guard position. While Marquette employs a platoon of actual two-guard Dwight Buycks and the rapidly improving but inexperienced Junior Cadougan, what Marshall has meant to this Tar Heels team down the stretch cannot possibly be overstated. Marshall has dished out 24 assists compared to six turnovers in the tournament thus far and Carolina has only twice to Duke since he was instituted as the starting point guard ahead of the now-departed Larry Drew. A key reason why Marquette upset both Xavier and Syracuse was turnover differential. We’re leaning towards Marshall being able to dictate tempo without turning the basketball over. UNC advances to a showdown against either Ohio State or Kentucky with a trip to Houston on the line.

RTC Certified Pick: North Carolina.

#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond – Southwest Regional Semifinal (at San Antonio, TX) – 7:27 pm ET on TBS.

This is the game considered the biggest mismatch of the Sweet Sixteen, with one of the two co-favorites to win the national title lacing up their sneakers to play a mid-major darling, the Richmond Spiders.  To presume Kansas will run away with this one, though, is to make an error of judgment inconsiderate of two things: a) just how well Richmond is playing lately; and b) a recurring tendency by the Jayhawks to allow lesser teams to hang with them longer than they should.  Chris Mooney’s team is built like a mid-major with some high-major talent and athletes on its roster.  The Spiders like to spread the court and play a modified Princeton offense with their big men capable of knocking down jumpers as well as hitting cutters from the high post. Nearly every Spider starter can hit threes, befitting of a team that nailed long  balls at a tenth-in-the-nation best 39.9%.  The two players that the Jayhawk must key on are all-Atlantic 10 performers Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper. Both are athletic players who can pop for 25 on a given night, and with Dan Geriot capable of pulling a Morris twin outside and hitting long jumpers in addition to the range Harper has in his arsenal, the lane should be open for the classic penetration/kicks and the backdoor cuts that the offense is noted for.  As for Kansas, its defense on the perimeter is typically good, holding teams under 30% for the season from deep, but they are small outside, and if the UR big players are able to hit shots, they will keep Richmond hanging around this one.  KU obviously has a huge advantage inside, and as Vanderbilt’s Festus Ezeli showed in the Second Round, if Kansas remembers to throw the ball into the Morris twins from time to time, the big duo should have a combined 40-50-point night.  One problem with Bill Self’s team in this tournament is that they’ve yet to put a complete performance together; they looked and played tight against Boston University for much of the game; and Self even mentioned it afterward.  There were parts of the Illinois game that looked similar.  If Richmond starts nailing some early threes and gets Kansas down 8-12 points, how will the Jayhawks react?  Will they stay calm and play to their strengths inside; or will they panic and face another Northern Iowa situation?  It’s a compelling storyline, and one that will only be answered tonight in San Antonio — it says here that the Morris twins will be too much for UR to ultimately handle.

RTC Certified Pick: Kansas.

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RTC Live will be in both Newark and San Antonio tonight for another night of Sweet Sixteen action that includes not one, two or three, but four double-digit seeds — will more than one remain after this evening?  Join our correspondents as they take you through tonight’s games from courtside.  Feel free to pepper them with questions and commentary throughout the night!

RTC Live will be in both New Orleans and Anaheim tonight for what promises to be a great opening night of Sweet Sixteen action.  Join our correspondents as they take you through tonight’s games from courtside.  Feel free to pepper them with questions and commentary throughout the night!

Past Imperfect is a series focusing on the history of the game. Each week, RTC contributor JL Weill (@AgonicaBoss| Email) highlights some piece of historical arcana that may (or may not) be relevant to today’s college basketball landscape. This week: the greatest Sweet 16 and Elite Eight ever, the 1990 NCAA Tournament.

By the time the 1990 NCAA Tournament hit its second weekend, fans had already been treated to quite a show: 16th-seeded Murray State pushing top seed Michigan State to the wire; Loyola Marymount’s emotional return to the court following the tragic passing of All-American teammate Hank Gathers and stunning rout of defending champion Michigan; upsets by Ball State, Dayton and Northern Iowa; surprise takedowns of high seeds Kansas, Purdue and No. 1 Oklahoma.

But as much as the results, 1990 in many ways represented a modern apogee for college basketball – a natural peak that was a nexus of upperclassman experience, elite talent and athleticism and a growing American obsession with this quirky college tournament cum mega-event. As television numbers soared and a new generation of basketball fans came of age, interest in the NCAA Tournament was at an all-time high, and the product on the court was worthy of it.

Basketball is a game that has weathered changes in style, scandals of all levels and cycles of roster attrition, any of which might have crippled a less beloved sport. But while there have always been flaws, much of the negativity and cynicism that has since widened the gap between fans of the college game and fans of the modern NBA at the end of the 1980s had yet to be amplified by the combination of youthful revolt, unmitigated marketing and an ever-present media lens that we accept as the norm today. Likewise, at the time the 1990 tourney tipped, ESPN had yet to dominate the sports broadcast market the way it does now and, while viewership of cable television was certainly widespread, Americans were still mostly attuned to a tradition of watching major sporting events like the NCAA Tournament on network, and even more so, local television. And, certainly not to be ignored, this was long before the Internet changed forever the way fans consumed, discussed and dissected the sports the watched.

But if in these many ways the beginning of the 1990s was a more innocent time for fans, it was a more experienced and developed time for college basketball. Since Magic Johnson had been drafted No. 1 overall as a sophomore in the 1979 NBA Draft, only 12 underclassmen had been selected in the draft to that point, and of those, none had been freshmen from Division I colleges. There was a fundamental agreement that freshmen were not physically ready to play with grown men in the NBA, and despite the Spencer Haywood decision of the early 1970s granting high school players the right to be drafted, only three high school players had opted to skip college entirely: Moses Malone, Darryl Dawkins and Bill Willoughby.

The result was that coaches continued to build teams around star players who they knew were not only talented, but also would be around long enough to accrue the experience that came with having played at least two years in college already. Any fan of college basketball knows that while added playing experience is certainly no guarantee of success at the college level, it sure does help.

So came the 1990 tournament, flush with future pros, plus Hall of Fame and soon-to-be-household-name up-and-comer coaches, too. There were blueblood programs and upstarts alike. And the opening weekend of the tournament was a fantastic one. But if the first two rounds had produced great games and standout individual performances, it was only a prelude to the grand waltz of the weekend ahead. From March 22-25, 1990, college basketball showed, on its grandest stage, all of the best things its season-ending tournament had to offer: emotion, drama, intrigue, and controversy – not to mention collegiate athletics played at the highest level.

It all began with a bang. Two years before a miracle full-court pass and shot at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, N.J., would become one of the most replayed and remembered moments in NCAA Tournament history, another, different but equally improbable full-court catch and shoot would captivate college basketball fans’ imaginations … for all of two days.

Few people remember now that when coach Jim Calhoun took over the University of Connecticut program it was arguably the worst in Division I. Now, in just his fourth year, Calhoun had the Huskies as the East Region’s No. 1 seed, facing a talented fifth-seeded Clemson in the Sweet 16. Strong and oozing confidence, UConn opened a 19-point lead. But in the second half, Clemson went on a 25-8 run to cut the lead to two with just over three-and-a-half minutes left. With only 12 seconds remaining in the game, Clemson sophomore David Young hit a three-pointer to give the Tigers their first lead since early in the first half. UConn point guard Tate George missed a jump shot with four seconds left, Clemson rebounded and was fouled. But after forward Sean Tyson missed the free throw, UConn collected the rebound and called time out. One second remained on the game clock.

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We’re down to sixteen teams, so it’s time to visit with each of our regional experts and analyze what happened in each of the four regions and what should be expected this coming weekend. Every one of these predictions is guaranteed to be absolutely and totally correct.

Region: Southwest

New Favorite (Same as the Old Favorite):  #1 Kansas, 34-2.  Kansas is one of the biggest favorites a region has ever seen, as a #10, a #11 and a #12 seed remain opposite the mighty Jayhawks in San Antonio.  While Florida State, VCU and Richmond are all capable teams with varying strengths and weaknesses, none of the three pose a serious threat to KU so long as Bill Self’s team shows maturity and takes them seriously.

Horse of Darkness:  #10 Florida State,  23-10.  In two NCAA Tournament games, the Seminoles are firing on all cylinders defensively, holding Texas A&M and Notre Dame to a total of 107 points and a defensive PPP of 0.86.  When you’re locking teams up like that, especially offensive juggernauts like the Irish, then you have a chance to win any game you play.  VCU is beatable, but Kansas is a completely different animal. 

Biggest Surprise (1st Weekend):  Three Double-Digit Seeds Advancing.  Nobody, and we mean nobody, would have had this bracket unless they were shooting darts or perhaps was a Richmond native who attended Florida State.  It’s so rare that in the twenty-seven years since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, three double-digit seeds have never made the same regional.  Until this year.  It’ll certainly make for an interesting group of fans in the Alamodome, as two smallish schools and a football school join a hoops powerhouse in San Antonio. 

Completely Expected (1st Weekend):  Kansas Advancing.  The Jayhawks didn’t really dominate Boston University nor Illinois over the weekend, but unlike Duke and certainly Pitt, they weren’t really threatened either.  The Southwest Region was already one of the weaker ones; with the bloodbath of high seeds that got eliminated over the weekend, it’s become even more so.

I’m Exceptionally Smart and Prescient: It’s not easy to act smart in a region that blew up like this one, but my Sweet Sixteen Sleeper, Richmond, was a good choice.   Pointing out that Louisville is prone to stinkers and that UR should be able to defeat Vandy was a phenomenal call, which will surely more than compensate for this one… 

Except When I Make Stupid Predictions: Calling VCU Overseeded at #11.  Ok, maybe Jay Bilas Inceptioned my brain or something, but in terms of VCU’s resume, they were in fact overseeded and maybe that is now contributing to how well they’re sticking it to the power conference teams in this bracket.  Everyone underestimated this team because, while we knew they had talent, they hadn’t played like it down the stretch this year.  Now they’re a game away from the Elite Eight and nobody is counting them out at this point.

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