Well, we’re about down to it at this point. By this time on Sunday, we’ll probably be in the range of about 80 teams still “alive” for the national title as we await the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to show us the product of all its work. For the time being, Friday’s wall-to-wall action gave us 27 more eliminations from the Circle of March, leaving us with 93 teams holding out hope as we head into Championship Saturday. That’s right, no fewer than 14 conference championships will come down today, from leagues as divergent as the WAC and MEAC to the Big East and Pac-12. Let’s enjoy it all, shall we?

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.14.14)

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What a day. We knew it was coming, but sitting through the Championship Fortnight Thursday bloodbath is always a bit more difficult that it first seems. Keeping track of some 60 elimination games scattered throughout 19 different tournament sites is quite the challenge, but one that ultimately proves rewarding with all the great match-ups that were produced for today. As it turned out, there were no championships yesterday, but a total of 48 teams were eliminated from the Circle of March on Thursday. Note that bubble teams won’t drop off until they’re officially eliminated by the Selection Committee on Sunday evening. That leaves us with 120 teams still alive. Three more days to 68. Shall we?

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.13.14)

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Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Thursday is typically the busiest day of championship week because we get to find out which “bid thieves” are going to possibly throw a wrench into the hopes of the nation’s nervous bubble teams. Not a lot has changed so far this week, but here’s what has.

• Georgetown is done after losing to DePaul on Thursday night. The Hoyas inexplicably blew a chance to play Creighton and what was likely a way to win their way into the Tournament. Now, Georgetown is NIT-bound.
• Stanford saved its season by coming from behind to defeat Washington State in the last game of the day Wednesday night. The Cardinal are likely going to get in and will have a chance to cement their standing today against Arizona State.
• BYU‘s situation has changed a lot in the last few days. First, the Cougars lost to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament; then, news broke that Kyle Collinsworth is out for the season with an ACL injury. Yes, this will impact the Cougars’ chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament and, yes, it is a unique situation. Unlike Kansas, which will get a chance to show it is still a Tournament-worthy team without big man Joel Embiid, the Cougars won’t have that opportunity. Because of the timing of the injury, the committee won’t be able to see how good BYU is without Collinsworth and instead will have to completely ignore it when they make their selection this weekend. Or at least that is what (from my understanding) they are supposed to do. We are all human, so I wonder if the committee will be able to ignore Collinsworth’s injury in their analysis. Considering he averages 14.0 PPG and 8.1 RPG this season, that’s a substantial piece of their offensive attack. I’m guessing the Cougars are going to be out.
• The CIT field is starting to come together. A total of 16 teams have now accepted bids (see below the bracket for more details).
• There are no changes to the bracket below, at least not yet. Today there will be some movement.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket below after the jump)

• NCAA Tournament Locks (35): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State
• Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (13): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC), Delaware (CAA), American (Patriot)

Bracket Math

How many spots are still available for bubble teams hoping to win their way into the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down with a little bit of simple math.

I have 35 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac 12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST — if not all — of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 35, which leaves us with 26 “true locks”. Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 58 locks. 

Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 10 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble:

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 10

• Bubble In (10): Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Xavier, California, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee
• Bubble Out: BYU, Arkansas,  Providence, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 44

• American (3): Houston, Rutgers, UCF
• ACC (5): Clemson, N. C. State, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
• A-10 (7): Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island, Duquesne,  Fordham
• Big East (6): St. John’s, Xavier, Marquette, Seton Hall, DePaul, Providence
• Big 12 (1): West Virginia
• Big Ten (5): Minnesota, Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
• Mountain West (6): UNLV, Nevada, Boise State, Wyoming, Fresno State, Utah State
• Pac 12 (1): Utah
• SEC (10): Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field (March 13, 2014 at 10:16 AM CT)

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With many of the power conference league tournaments starting yesterday, the Circle of March took a 30-team hit over the last 24 hours. Every team that lost on Wednesday was clinging to the unlikely notion of making a run to a conference title for entry into the NCAA Tournament, but it wasn’t to be. There was, however, one team that won its automatic bid — American University, from the Patriot League. Heading into what will be a ginormous Thursday of action, there are now 168 teams remaining, which means a couple of things. First, we’ve blown through the 50 percent mark, with 172 of the 340 previously-eligible teams now eliminated. Second, over the course of the next four days, a hundred more teams will drop off that list. With 60 tournament games scheduled today, nearly half of those could drop off over the next 16 hours. Enjoy today’s marathon of games!

 Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.12.14)

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In Part III of our three-part series (click here for Part I and Part II), we pass out 2013-14 superlatives to the best teams, performers and performances from six different O26 conferences: Big Sky, Big West, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt and WAC. In alphabetical order: 

Big Sky

Davion Berry and Weber State finally edged Montana and won the Big Sky. (Photo by Weber State)

• Team of the Year – Weber State (17-11, 14-6). After winning 55 games in the previous two seasons, this was the year – the most parity-driven in recent memory – that Weber State outlasted Montana and won the Big Sky. The Wildcats now host the conference tournament, which could mean a return to the Big Dance for the first time since 2007.
• Player of the Year – Davion Berry – Weber State. Narrowly edging out Montana’s Kareem Jamar and North Dakota’s Troy Huff for our Player of the Year, Berry averaged 19 points per contest, distributed the ball effectively, shot almost 40 percent from long range, and led his team to a title.
• Coach of the Year – Tyler Geving – Portland State. Portland State was picked to finish ninth in the conference, an outlook that became even worse when senior Aaron Moore, averaging nearly 12 points per game, was dismissed from the team in early January. After the Vikings lost four straight close games in the middle of the Big Sky season, Geving deserves credit for leading his guys to a 5-1 finish and a fifth-place tie in the league.
• Upset of the Year – Northern Colorado over Kansas State, 60-58. Until last Saturday, Kansas State was pretty much unbeatable at home this season: Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Iowa State, and George Washington — all these teams left Manhattan without a win. But you know who did manage to leave Manhattan with a win (aside from Baylor)? BJ Hill’s Bears. Gotta love early November.
• Dunk (or Dunker) of the Year – Jaron Nash – North Dakota. Nash goes baseline, emphatically stuffs it with one hand, then salutes the home crowd. Great stuff.

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The calm before the storm. With last night’s results, which included championship games from the Horizon, NEC, Summit and WCC Tournaments, we’re now down to a grand total of 199 eligible teams for the 2014 NCAA Championship. Oh, and hey, Mount St. Mary’s, Milwaukee, North Dakota State and Gonzaga. Nice to see you all dancing. As for today’s games, a boatload of leagues get under way as we push hard over the next five days to get this thing to 68. We’re not going to list them all here, but five power conferences and the A-10 and Mountain West all have games today, and the bloodbath will continue in these leagues at least through Friday. Expect the culling of the Circle to take its most direct hit over the next 48 hours.

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.11.14)

• Jackson State
• North Carolina A&T
• Rice
• Bethune-Cookman
• Robert Morris
• Wright State
• Penn
• Princeton
• Florida Atlantic
• Delaware State
• IPFW
• Texas-San Antonio

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Monday and Tuesday were the last two “quiet” days of the season. Sure, several automatic bids were handed out to the NCAA Tournament, but all in all not a lot changed in my NCAA Tournament bracketology. BYU’s loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Final is the biggest result on the board in the last two days and the Cougars were already the first team out of my field. For now, I’m leaving things that way with the right to change my mind before Selection Sunday.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket after the jump)

• NCAA Tournament Locks (35): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State
• Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (11): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC)

Bracket Math

• How many spots are still available for bubble teams hoping to win their way into the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down with a little bit of simple math.
• I have 35 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac-12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST, if not all, of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked-in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 35, which leaves us with 26 “true locks.” Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 58 locks. 
• Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 10 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble.

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 10

• Bubble In (10): Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Xavier, California, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee
• Bubble Out: BYU, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 67

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Oregon locked up a bid to the NCAA Tournament on Saturday in its upset win over Arizona, and six Seniors played their final game at Matthew Knight Arena in the process. We break them down below:

It’s Been An Up And Down Season For Senior Mike Moser, But The Forward Has Averaged 17.7 PPG Over His Last Seven Games To Propel The Ducks Onto The Right Side Of The Bubble. (Michael Shaw/AP)

Hopes were high when Mike Moser announced his intentions to transfer from UNLV to Oregon last summer, and expectations immediately rose for the Ducks. There were talks before of a top-four finish to follow up their Sweet Sixteen appearance, but with the addition of Moser, competing with Arizona for a conference championship seemed achievable. And for the first two months of the season, things were great. The forward dropped 15 points in the first game of the season against Georgetown, and added another 24 in a huge road win in overtime at Mississippi. The Ducks were riding high, but the losses began to accumulate rapidly as Moser’s production waned. He hit a nasty shooting slump and lost all confidence while Oregon dropped six of seven games in the month of January, but as he slowly began to get his stroke back, Dana Altman‘s team finally started to pull out the close games that they had been losing before. They are now a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and it’s no coincidence that Moser has averaged 16.8 PPG since February 8, a stretch where his team has gone 7-1.

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Day seven of Championship Fortnight is in the books, and with it the first week of the Circle of March. Sunday’s slate was a bit lighter than Saturday, but we still eliminated 12 more teams to reach a total of 224 eligible schools remaining. Of course, at this time next week, we’ll be down to the magic number of 68, which means there’s still a lot of work to be done over the next 168 hours. There will only be 13 games on tap tonight, but they’re all elimination games with the MAC and MEAC getting under way, the Summit and WCC playing their semifinal rounds, and the CAA, MAAC and SoCon crowning champions. Keep in mind that to preserve the integrity of the regular season, we’re not yet eliminating schools from the CoM that still have games to play (i.e., Penn and Princeton).

Teams Eliminated From National Title Contention (03.09.14)

• Canisius
• Vermont
• Towson
• Davidson
• South Dakota
• Quinnipiac
• Hartford
• Georgia Southern
• Western Illinois

Championship Fortnight continues with yet two more conference tourneys tipping off today, so what better way to get you through the next week of games than to break down each of the Other 26′s postseason events. Today, the MAC and the MEAC get started.

Dates: March 10, 12-15
Site: First Round: Campus sites; Second Round, Quarters, Semis and Championship: Quicken Loans Arena (Cleveland, OH)

What to expect: The MAC’s power pendulum has swung numerous times this season, so it’s difficult to tell which contender has the best shot in Cleveland. Buffalo came on strong in the second half of the year and might boast the league’s most dominant player in Javon McCrea, a double-double machine who recently set the school’s all-time scoring record, while Western Michigan enters the event having won 10 of its last 11 games. Toledo, meanwhile, set a school record with 26 overall wins and will get a triple-bye (yes, a triple-bye) all the way to the semifinals, along with the Broncos. More likely than not, one of those three clubs will emerge as champion. Still, don’t be surprised if one of the conference’s other up-and-down challengers – like recent NCAA Tournament representatives Ohio and Akron – put together a run and leave with a trophy.

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