RTC Bracketology: March 12 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 12th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Monday and Tuesday were the last two “quiet” days of the season. Sure, several automatic bids were handed out to the NCAA Tournament, but all in all not a lot changed in my NCAA Tournament bracketology. BYU’s loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Final is the biggest result on the board in the last two days and the Cougars were already the first team out of my field. For now, I’m leaving things that way with the right to change my mind before Selection Sunday.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket after the jump)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (35): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State
  • Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (11): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC)

Bracket Math

  • How many spots are still available for bubble teams hoping to win their way into the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down with a little bit of simple math.
  • I have 35 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac-12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST, if not all, of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked-in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 35, which leaves us with 26 true locks.” Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 58 locks. 
  • Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 10 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble.

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 10

  • Bubble In (10): Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Xavier, California, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee
  • Bubble Out: BYU, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 67

  • American (5): Houston, Rutgers, UCF, Temple, South Florida
  • ACC (10): Clemson, N. C. State, Florida State, Maryland, Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Boston College, Virginia Tech
  • A-10 (9): Dayton, St. Joseph’s Richmond, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island, Duquesne, George Mason, Fordham
  • Big East (8): St. John’s, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Butler, DePaul, Providence
  • Big 12 (3): West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
  • Big Ten (6): Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
  • Mountain West (9): UNLV, Nevada, Boise State, Wyoming, Fresno State, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, San Jose State
  • Pac 12 (5): Utah, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, USC
  • SEC (12): Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field (March 12, 2014 at 1:34 AM CT)


The NIT Picture

  • Automatic NIT Bids (7): Belmont (OVC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASun), Davidson (SoCon), Vermont (America East), Green Bay (Horizon), Iona (MAAC), Robert Morris (NEC)
  • Current At-Large Projections (25): BYU, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence,  Florida State, St. John’s,  Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Clemson, N. C. State, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, UTEP, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, Indiana State, UNLV, Utah, Georgia, LSU, Maryland, Ohio, Washington
  • Others potential auto bids/NIT bid stealers (9): Weber State (Big Sky), UC Irvine (Big West), Louisiana Tech (CUSA), Western Michigan (MAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), Boston University (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Utah Valley (WAC), Georgia State (Sun Belt)

The CBI/CIT Picture

  • Projected CBI Field (16): Penn State, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, San Francisco, Boise State, New Mexico State, Siena, Illinois State, Ole Miss, Buffalo, Tulsa, Western Kentucky, Cleveland State,  Saint Mary’s, Houston, Missouri State
  • Teams we know won’t accept CBI bid: Miami (FL) (link)
  • Projected CIT Field (27):  Grand Canyon (rumored to accept), American, UCSB, Towson, IPFW, William & Mary, Quinnipiac, Princeton, South Dakota State, Holy Cross, Montana, Charlotte, Bucknell, Winthrop, Wagner, VMI, Chattanooga, Hartford, High Point, Drexel, UAB, Radford, USC Upstate, Albany, Hawaii, St. Bonaventure, Wright State
  • Accepted CIT Bids (5): San Diego (accepted), Valparaiso (accepted), Nebraska-Omaha (accepted), Brown (accepted), Murray State (accepted)
Daniel Evans (60 Posts)

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One response to “RTC Bracketology: March 12 Edition”

  1. Henry Muto says:

    You forgot High Point as an NIT lock

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