Florida State won a very good game with Duke. It wasn’t a pretty game, but it was a hard-fought battle that the Seminoles deserved to win.

• Once again we got a chance to see the heart of this Duke team. Down ten early in the second half, nearly everyone–myself included–thought Duke might fold with its offense struggling (the Blue Devils committed 14 turnovers in the first half alone). Instead Duke came back to take the lead with five minutes left. The Blue Devils ended up losing, but the resilience of this squad definitely impresses me more than anything else. Duke showed it could play physical, something the Plumlees don’t get enough credit for, and that it can hang with good teams without shooting lights out from three.
  

  Bernard James Is 27, but only Started Playing Basketball in the Air Force.

• After the game Mike Krzyzewski said Michael Snaer is the “best competitor in our league.” Yesterday’s game was definitely supporting of that. In addition to playing the best defense on the court, he immediately hit the second-biggest shot in the game right after Duke took a 2-point lead with 3:40 to play. He’s one of those players that’s just unreal to watch from the court level: he never gives up on plays and makes it impossible to be comfortable offensively.
• After the game a reporter asked Leonard Hamilton about his team’s experience (the Seminoles have six seniors and graduate transfers on their roster). Hamilton pointed out that most of the team didn’t actually have that much experience. The team has transfers (Jeff Peterson), players new to basketball (Bernard James), and many players with much more expanded roles (Luke Loucks). There’s a reason Florida State started so slowly.

1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) – It’s funny how the difference between a successful season can come down to one game. Had North Carolina lost to Duke at Cameron, people would’ve pointed to the Tar Heels’ lofty preseason expectations and how they came up short. Instead, Roy Williams’ squad finally showed the world just why it was ranked so high early in the season. Kendall Marshall hit shots, the defense clicked and the game felt over by the first media timeout. Now the Tar Heels have the inside track for a one-seed, owning the head-to-head victory with Michigan State that will definitely come in handy. There are still legitimate questions about North Carolina’s intensity, but if that intensity is in the ballpark of Saturday night opponents should be scared. Don’t pencil the Tar Heels into the Final Four before seeing the ACC Tournament. This team’s worst enemy until the final weekend will be itself. One person in particular to keep you eye on is Marshall. He was snubbed from first-team All-ACC (he missed by two votes), so I expect him to come out aggressively Friday. He’s also shows recent offensive improvement, coming up with two of his best performances of the year in rivalry games against NC State and Duke. When he’s taking and hitting open looks, the Tar Heels are impossible to guard.
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When we talk about the All-ACC First Team, conventional wisdom holds that a few things are certain. Tyler Zeller and Mike Scott are iron-clad locks. To a lesser extent, John Henson seems fairly likely to make the team as well. That leaves two guard spots. On some level, it seems insane that Kendall Marshall‘s probable third place finish in the conference books for the single-season assist record, but his lack of dominant scoring, defense, and a general unwillingness to place so many Tar Heels on the first team probably hurts Marshall’s chances. The worst thing about this is that the negatives against Marshall probably hurt most of the other point guards in the league as well. As good as Lorenzo Brown has been, if Marshall isn’t going to make the first team, Brown’s chances aren’t looking so great either. For now, let’s set aside true point guards.

How Many of This UNC Trio Will End up as ACC First Teamers? (News-Record)

So, for better or worse, the two guard spots on this team are probably going to go to a pair of dominant wing scorers. Among the candidates, listed in order by points per game, we have Terrell Stoglin, Harrison Barnes, C.J. Harris, Travis McKie, Erick Green, Austin Rivers, Michael Snaer, and Seth Curry. So how do we pick two? These are individual awards, so I don’t feel particularly obligated to award team success, though I know that typically the voters for these honors use that criterion rather heavily. For now though, let’s pretend that Stoglin, Harris, McKie, and Green all have an equal shot.

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Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started with Duke and North Carolina.

How do you judge Florida State? The Seminoles own two outstanding wins. Their 33-point win against North Carolina may be the most impressive win for anyone of the year. Beating Duke in Durham is nearly as impressive. Florida State’s other good wins are against Virginia and Miami. But Florida State also lost to Princeton. It also took a 20-point beating at Clemson to open ACC play and somehow lost at Boston College. The rest of the Seminoles’ losses came to likely NCAA Tournament teams (Harvard, Connecticut, Michigan State, Florida, Duke and Miami).

Michael Snaer Is Stepping Up His Senior Season.

Obviously, the Seminoles are dancing. They also still have a road game against Virginia and a rubber match against Clemson to improve their resume. As of right now I agree with the masses and think Florida State is in the #5 to #6 seed range. (That link is to the Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix, which takes 95 brackets into account before compiling the consensus S-curve.) There are legitimate arguments for seeding Leonard Hamilton’s team anywhere from #4 to #8 depending on how much you value non-conference play.

One important thing to remember is that Ian Miller didn’t play in the first semester. He’s one of the team’s better offensive players, averaging double figures per game. Combine Miller’s performance with Michael Snaer finally realizing his McDonald’s All-American hype in conference play, and there’s a reason the Seminoles look so different in 2012. Projecting Florida State’s success in March is more difficult than assessing the proper seed. This is a team that could go to the Sweet Sixteen (or beyond) if shots are falling. It’s also a team that could get upset in the first round if shots aren’t falling. We know the defense will be there (though the team’s struggles defending smaller line-ups during the last two games give some pause); but how far can Snaer and company carry the offense?

After a Tuesday that saw two bubble teams fall short, Virginia handle its in-state rival, and Georgia Tech embarrass the rest of the conference by only scoring 37 points against Clemson, this Thursday only has a single game. Fortunately what tonight lacks in quantity, it makes up for in quality.

Michael Snaer Likes To Hit Big Shots (In Case You Hadn't Heard)

The Big Game

• #7 Duke at #14 Florida State at 7:00 PM on ESPN

The last time these two teams met, Michael Snaer hit a buzzer beater that led to one of the most awkward silences in the history of Cameron Indoor. With Florida State’s win over Duke, the Seminoles pulled into first place in the conference. The Blue Devils, however, are in great position to enact their revenge while simultaneously making a play for first in the conference. Since the loss to Florida State, Duke has improved as a team; the once abysmal perimeter defense of this year’s team has suddenly rounded into form. Duke leads the conference in fewest three-pointers attempted by opponents (25.4%) as well as in opponent three-point percentage (28.9%). This is good news for the Blue Devils because this Florida State team continues to be underrated on offense: the Seminoles lead the conference in three-point percentage (38.0%) and effective field goal percentage (51.5%). Of course, the defense is there as well: Florida State leads the conference in opponent effective field goal percentage (44.3%) and opponent two-point percentage (42.6%). To win, Duke needs to find a way to effectively guard the big backcourt of Florida State and make a consistent effort to get to the rim against the foul-happy Seminoles. Conversely, if the Seminoles want to win, all they have to do is continue to play the way they have all year (though maybe with less turnovers). It’s been hard for this team to get consistent national respect. Maybe a third win against the Tobacco Road powers will do the trick.

There is no doubt that the way the Seminoles are playing right now, they are underrated. The defense is good, but let’s be totally clear, the reason that Florida State is on a crazy five-game winning streak that includes a dominating win over North Carolina and a win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium isn’t because of their defense (well, I mean, partly obviously, but roll with the rhetoric). Florida State is winning because of what appears, at this moment, to be one of the more unstoppable offenses in the ACC. I know that probably sounds wrong, but it’s true. Right now, Florida State has the fourth-best defense in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In conference play, the best defensive efficiency numbers belong to Virginia and North Carolina, which isn’t too surprising. More surprising? Third place is North Carolina State. In conference play, the Wolfpack have been better defensively than the Seminoles. Leonard Hamilton‘s team is still playing pretty well defensively, but despite their reputation, Florida State’s win streak is due to torrid, red hot offense.

Don't Sleep On Florida State's Defense Or They Will Put You To Bed (AP Photo / S. Cannon)

Duke owns the best offense in conference play, but Florida State actually has had better offensive execution than every other team in the conference. In fact, Florida State has played better offense than North Carolina in conference play. That might seem crazy to you, and you might be thinking that I have gone off the deep end, diving into a pool of stat-wonk Kool-Aid, but if you don’t trust efficiency stats, just check out shooting percentages. Since the beginning of conference play, Florida State has shot 41.2% from beyond the arc, easily the best mark in the ACC. Here is a quick list of field goal percentages from the Seminoles’ last four games.

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1. Inside Carolina: The question of the week is how will North Carolina deal with losing Dexter Strickland. The simple answers are Stilman White (who has racked up just over 60 minutes of playing time this year) will be Kendall Marshall’s backup at point, and Reggie Bullock will replace Strickland in the starting line-up. Bullock has really come into his own this year, and many Tar Heel fans were already calling for him to start due to his huge offensive upgrade over Strickland. He also always draws the toughest defensive assignment when he’s on the floor because his length and athleticism make him a terrific perimeter defender. Not surprisingly, Roy Williams is not considering pulling Leslie McDonald’s red-shirt (McDonald isn’t a point guard). One of Williams’ ideas to keep Marshall out of foul trouble: “I may just decide to play a 2-3 zone the whole game and put Kendall in the middle and tell him never to foul.”
2. Orlando Sentinel: In our no-brainer move of the week, the ACC named Michael Snaer its Player of the Week after he knocked down not one, but two huge threes in Florida State’s upset bid at Duke. Austin Rivers also took rookie of the week honors after settling into conference play with 19 points in the Blue Devils’ loss to the Seminoles. Both performances were pretty significant. Rivers proved he could be “the guy” against tough defenses, and Snaer continued his streak of games scoring in double figures. For both teams to be successful, those trends will have to continue.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: For the first time in several years, the North Carolina–NC State game feels important beyond the rivalry. NC State looks like a NCAA tournament team but still needs a marquee win to hang its hat on. The Tar Heels have shown some mortality. Even when both teams were ranked in Herb Sendek’s final season with the Wolfpack, his downplaying of the rivalry kept it from feeling like a big deal. Mark Gottfried is not Sendek. I personally think the Wolfpack starting five can hang with the Tar Heels. And I’m very excited to see Lorenzo Brown and Kendall Marshall face off at the point guard spot although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reggie Bullock guarding Brown.
4. Fox Sports Carolinas: Duke still has issues defensively and at the point guard position. In the past the Blue Devils have been fine without a point guard, but this year the offense is focused on the interior. The Plumlees need someone to get them the ball. So far, only Quinn Cook has shown the ability to do that consistently (but his turnover issues made him an extreme liability against Florida State). Defensively, Duke lacks the athleticism and flexibility of past teams that had both good on-ball defenders and flexible wings, like Kyle Singler, to make Mike Krzyzewski’s over-playing man-to-man defense effective. They have to fix both issues to be a legitimate contender. Period.
5. Miami Herald: Jim Larranga is getting tired of his team’s lack of progress. I’d be frustrated too: the Hurricanes had one assist to nine turnovers at the half and shot 2-20 from three against NC State. Kenny Kadji’s play has been about the only positive thing for the Hurricanes so far this season. Reggie Johnson’s injury really set him and the team back, as he still hasn’t been able to get near game shape. Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant have both been plagued by inconsistent play.

EXTRA: Tonight at the game against Duke, Maryland will be dedicating its court to Gary Williams (apparently there were a couple of events last night too). It should be a pretty special event, and Scott Van Pelt hinted there would be some very cool stuff. I’m not sure if the ceremony will be televised, as it starts before the game. I’ll pass along any good videos I find.

Matt Poindexter is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday’s Duke-Florida State game in Durham.

Before the season started, ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi pegged Leonard Hamilton’s Florida State team as an 8-seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. Then talented Seminole forward Terrance Shannon suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, and a 5-0 start was followed up by a 4-6 stretch that featured an inexplicable home loss to Princeton and a blowout loss at Clemson to start ACC play. A week into January, the team that many expected to sit near the top of the ACC was instead 9-6, with their best victory a home win against Central Florida. The Seminoles have some more impressive wins today. First, FSU handed North Carolina by giving the Heels one of the worst beatings of the Roy Williams era, leading for all but the first 39 seconds of the game and winning 90-57. Then, a week after beating UNC, FSU’s Michael Snaer hit a last-second shot to snap Duke’s 45-game winning streak at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Why the sudden change?

According to Hamilton, the drastic improvement over the past few games is due to more experience and better point guard play. In his postgame press conference on Saturday, Hamilton said that many were confusing his team’s age with experience. Though already 26 years old, star forward Bernard James’ pre-Seminole basketball experience consisted of a few years as an enlisted member of the United States Air Force and one season at Tallahassee (FL) Community College. Many of James’ teammates are also upperclassmen, but played limited minutes behind Derwin Kitchen and Chris Singleton until this season. His juniors and seniors, Hamilton feels, are only now catching up on court time.

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1. Tobacco Road Blues: Adrian Atkinson (@FreeportKid) drops all sorts of interesting stats on North Carolina throughout the day. He’s also taken the torch from Luke Winn and David Hess by charting North Carolina‘s defense through the first quarter of the season. To put it mildly, the findings are fascinating. First and foremost, Harrison Barnes is a horrendous defender. Barnes is allowing opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. Shockingly, Dexter Strickland is second worst in field goal defense. Not surprisingly John Henson dominates the category, holding opponents to 24.3% (!) from the field. The final surprise for me was how dominant Reggie Bullock was this year compared to last year. Atkinson admits that there’s probably a little luck at play here, but Bullock has the highest stop percentage (at 71.8%). I also think it’s important that Bullock guards the perimeter, leaving Henson and Tyler Zeller free to get in position for rebounds (so nearly every missed shot leads to a stop). I think we will do a more in-depth post looking at the defensive styles of the Tar Heel defenders to try and explain some of these numbers (specifically Barnes and Bullock), but check out Atkinson’s piece first.
2. ESPN (or full Insider article): Speaking of Barnes’ struggles, is his draft stock slipping? Chad Ford thinks that Barnes is in danger of slipping, and his argument makes sense. Barnes is living on his jump shot this season (taking one dribble or less). He has turned the ball over too much and generally hasn’t tried to get to the rim with regularity. Combine that with the defensive numbers mentioned above, and it’s a little surprising Barnes hasn’t fallen already.
3. Fayetteville Observer: Moving down the road to Duke, the Blue Devils only have one game in the next 17 days. Just for comparison Duke started the season playing eight games in 18 days. In addition to giving the team a rest for finals, the break should give Mike Krzyzewski a chance to really work on all of the big picture things that were too big to tackle in between games. The primary issue is defense: “‘The coaches stressed that defense has always been part of the Duke standards,” Thornton said. “This year we haven’t really lived up to those standards, so Coach talked to me, Quinn (Cook) and Seth (Curry) and said it starts with us. From now on, we don’t care who we’re playing, we’re going to get after them.”
4. Gant Daily: Before the season, Florida State had a lot of hype, but so far the Seminoles have struggled to live up to all of it. Michael Snaer is still really excited about their potential though. Florida State’s three-game losing streak, which came during a gauntlet stretch of four games over a week, showcased the team’s offensive struggles, most of which come from turning the ball over too often. If the Seminoles can protect the rock and crash the defensive glass more, look out.
5. Soaring To Glory: Boston College‘s recent start-to-finish win over Stony Brook and the competitive loss to Providence has renewed a sense in optimism in the team. The Eagles’ dominant stretch against the Seawolves came in the five minutes before the half, when they extended a three-point lead to a 17-point advantage. The Eagles also played well for much of the game against Penn State and Boston University (read: they had slim leads in the second half) before falling apart in the second half. It’s too early to make a definitive generalization, but the trend definitely looks positive for Steve Donahue’s squad.

BONUS I: Mike Krzyzewski won Sports Illustrated‘s Sportsman of the Year. Here’s his acceptance speech. It’s worth the time.

BONUS II: Yesterday, I linked a great profile of Virginia’s center Assane Sene, but made the mistake not to mention the new documentary that follows four Senegalese players including the Cavalier big man. See the trailer below:

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference. You can follow him on Twitter @rise_and_fire.

Reader’s Take

Top Storylines

• Wake Forest’s Dynamic Duo: The Demon Deacons may not be the prettiest team to watch, but CJ Harris and Travis McKie are lighting up the box score. We knew (even if I, in a gaffe of all gaffes, left him off my All-Freshman team last year for Ryan Harrow) Mckie was going to be one of the ACC’s top players this year, but Harris has been a very pleasant surprise. The pair are efficiently combining for nearly 57% of Wake Forest’s points through the first 10 games of the year. Harris has already made as many threes as he made all last season on 18 less attempts, and he’s significantly more effective inside the arc. It remains to be seen how Harris will adapt to the defenses of ACC play, but so far he has to be leading the “surprise of the year” category.
• Duke’s Post Presence: That’s right: after two solid years of berating the Plumlees as overrated and generally poor basketball players, it’s time to give credit where it’s due. Mason Plumlee has developed into a very good big man. No, he can’t make a free throw to save his life, but he’s much better offensively everywhere except the boards than he’s been the last few years. He developed a couple of solid post moves, stopped turning the ball over as much and learned to hold his ground on defense. If he can either learn to crash the offensive glass or hit 60% of his free throws, I’m confident in saying he’ll be one of the top three or four bigs in the ACC this season.
• That’s right, the ACC Digital Network launched this season. Check out JR Reid break down North Carolina‘s softness and the conference power rankings. So far the coverage is fairly limited, but as it expands this could become one of the better sources of information for ACC fans.

Power Rankings

1. North Carolina (8-2) stays atop the rankings with a hard-fought win over Long Beach State, which better get rewarded by the Selection Committee in March for playing such a tough non-conference schedule. The Tar Heels dominated on the inside with John Henson and Harrison Barnes leading the scoring, but it is worth noting that this is  another game where four Tar Heel starters played more than 30 minutes. Read the rest of this entry »