It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 29, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST). This weekend features two heavyweight matchups featuring the four teams that are clearly the class of the conference thus far.

Saturday – Duke (17-4, 6-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (20-0, 7-0 ACC) – ESPN (6:30 PM)

Record Carrier Dome Crowd Awaits Duke.
(Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

A record Carrier Dome crowd is expected for Duke’s much-anticipated first trip to Syracuse. ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be there as well, adding to the hoopla. Duke hopes it can continue to play as well as it has in the last five games. During that stretch, the Blue Devils’ much maligned defense has held opponents to an excellent 93 points per 100 possessions. Their most impressive win came Monday night on the road over Pittsburgh, whose only other conference loss came at the Carrier Dome in a close game. An unsung hero lately has been Duke’s Amile Jefferson, who is the only player in the ACC’s top three in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse just keeps rolling along, rarely blowing teams out but always executing extremely well down the stretch of games. Freshman point guard Tyler Ennis has been amazing all season, but has even been more impressive in ACC play. Despite playing so many minutes, including going the full 40 in three of the last four games, Ennis seems to be at his best in the last five minutes of games. He does whatever the Orange needs him to do, and has become a more consistent scorer with double figure points in all seven ACC games. There will be a lot of talent on the floor, particularly at the forward spot, with each team having two versatile 6’8″ frontcourt players, C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant for Syracuse and Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood for Duke. Another key could be if either team’s sharp shooter, Trevor Cooney of the Orange or Andre Dawkins for the Blue Devils, gets free and knocks down multiple threes. Naturally, whenever a team plays Syracuse we have to look at how they will try and deal with that famously active zone defense. Duke has done pretty well against other zones but nobody plays it quite like the Orange. The Blue Devils will probably try and slide their forwards in and around the lane to use their quickness, but they will have to adjust to how well Syracuse reacts to the ball. Tempo will also play a big role, with Duke wanting to force the pace defensively, hoping to wear down the Orange and make them use their weaker bench. But other teams have tried to do that and found out that Ennis is hard to speed up.

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It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 22, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings.

Saturday: Florida State (13-5, 4-2 ACC) @ Duke (15-4, 4-2 ACC) – ESPN (12:00 PM)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#11) Duke 78-72 (#21) Florida State 

Jabari Parker Has Been More Aggressive Lately For Duke.
(Photo: Ethan Hyman)

This weekend’s kick-off game should be a great match-up between surging Duke and a Florida State team that has beaten every ACC team it has played not named Virginia. And don’t discount the Seminoles’ chances just because this game is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Florida State already has two impressive road conference wins over Clemson and Miami, each by double figures. In a bit of a surprise, the Seminoles lead the ACC in three-point shooting (43.8%), with sophomore Devon Bookert leading the way with a league-leading 12-for-19 (63.2%). The Florida State defense is tough on opposing shooters and ranks #16 nationally in adjusted efficiency, but it has not been quite as stingy in league play. They will be facing a hot Duke team that remade its lineup, is using its bench more, and has had success with it — winning three straight. The Blue Devils got their first road win of the season on Wednesday over Miami and have averaged an outstanding 121.7 points per 100 possessions over the last three outings. Jabari Parker appears to be bouncing back from his mini-slump, averaging 20 points per game in the last two outings. As an indication of Parker’s aggressiveness lately, he shot 18 free throws in those two games after only attempting a total of 12 in his first four ACC games.

Stat Watch. Florida State has two glaring weaknesses: defensive rebounding and ball-handling. Even though Duke has been weak on the offensive boards for most of the year, they grabbed 15 of them against Miami. And in their last home game, the Devils forced N.C. State into 15 first half turnovers, so the key to the game will probably be how well Florida State takes care of the ball. If they can make the game depend on who shoots better, Florida State has the edge, with their defensive field goal shooting (38.3%) much stronger than Duke’s defense (45.3%).

Saturday – Pittsburgh (17-2, 5-1 ACC) @ Maryland (11-8, 3-3 ACC) – ESPN2 (6:00 PM)

Pomeroy Prediction: (#2) Pittsburgh 73-65 (#66) Maryland

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1. Mode Analytics: Fair warning — you can spend hours with this visualization of where college basketball teams recruit. The only thing that I’d like to see from this is more years included. Obviously with relatively small rosters, things will fluctuate. Fun ACC fact number one: Georgia Tech is by far the most local recruiting school with 13 (!) players coming from Georgia (which is one shy of North Carolina, Duke and NC State’s collective haul in North Carolina). Fact number two: Duke doesn’t have more than two players from any given state (and only Illinois and Indiana border one another).
2. Washington Post: Good stuff by Alex Prewitt putting Maryland‘s resume in (damning) context. To make a long story short, Maryland needs to turn things around. The Terps dug a huge hole in non-conference play, which means there’s no margin for error going forward. But as a (gulp) NIT bid becomes the expectation, what does that mean for Mark Turgeon? He’s had three years at Maryland and done well on the recruiting trail, but his teams haven’t been able to live up to their potential. What’s even more concerning is that, apart from his tenure at Wichita State, there’s not an obvious upward trend at Texas A&M or Maryland. Now I’m a firm believer of giving a coach four years except in extraordinary circumstances, but Turgeon’s seat is going to be very warm next year if things don’t improve soon.
3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Tyler Ennis isn’t the only freshman point guard turning heads in the ACC. London Perrantes has been a pleasant surprise for the Cavaliers in taking over for the offensively challenged Jontel Evans. Perrantes — as shown by the incident with Okaro White (a significantly bigger and older player) — doesn’t have a confidence problem. And what’s scary is Perrantes is an elite free throw shooter. If his jumper starts falling, Virginia will be nearly impossible to guard.
4. Charlotte Observer: North Carolina isn’t an enigma anymore. Right now they just look like a team that isn’t very good. A lot of different people Andrew Carter interviewed talked about the Tar Heels’ toughness. Roy Williams even harkened back to Tyler Hansbrough as a model of a player who didn’t shy away from contact. That said, there’s still plenty of time for this team to turn things around. They have three great non-conference wins and at least three more chances for more marquee victories this season (to go with a very important match-up in Tallahassee). They might not want to exacerbate things by losing to Clemson on Sunday, though.
5. Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician: As someone who only watched the Big East peripherally, it’s interesting to hear Syracuse discussing whether Pittsburgh is one of its rivals (it actually sounds very similar to Duke fans discussing Maryland). There is also good bit on Dujuan Coleman’s injury impact on Syracuse going forward. And if you still have time, make sure to check out ACC Hustle, a short adapted screenplay of David O’Russell’s most recent film.

1. Sports Illustrated: Good stuff on CJ Fair here, whose two sporting idols are Carmelo Anthony and Michael Jordan. Anthony makes sense for a multitude of reasons: Fair is also from Baltimore, has the same Syracuse pedigree, and Anthony has one of the best mid-range games in the world. Jordan? More of a stretch. Here I’ll turn to Kelli Anderson: “A few years ago Fair read an interview in which Jordan was asked how he stayed motivated to give his best effort every single game, even against lesser competition. Jordan’s response: There might be a family out there seeing him for the first time, and he wanted to make a good impression.”
2. Tallahassee Democrat: The end of Florida State’s recent game at Virginia got ugly. After an admittedly unnecessary alley-oop with 18 seconds left, Justin Anderson was called for a technical foul. During the stoppage in play, some players started jawing. As the officials were separating the teams, London Perrantes and Okaro White continued talking and Perrantes appears to have shoved White. White shoved him back, whereupon two Virginia players then left the bench and were ejected. After a lengthy review from the officials, a double-technical was assessed to White (his fifth personal) and Perrantes. After the game in the handshake line, there was a second scuffle catalyzed by more contact between the two. Long story short: White was “publicly reprimanded” by the ACC, but the league won’t take further action.
3. Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician: Syracuse starting forward Dujuan Coleman is out for the year. To be clear, Coleman starts over Jerami Grant, but Grant plays a far larger role in the Syracuse rotation. Coleman only averaged 13 minutes per game this season, but without him Jim Boeheim effectively plays seven players (and Michael Gbinije has only played between four and 11 minutes in any of the team’s five conference games). That’s not a lot of depth available, which means that four guys are likely to suit up for 30-plus minutes per game from here on out. Depth is overrated — especially on teams that mostly play zone — but the Orange lose much of their wiggle room if a player gets sick, injured, or in foul trouble.
4. Washington Post: Glad to see Mike Wilbon take up for tradition here. Wilbon once worked the Maryland beat and currently serves on the board at Northwestern. He didn’t mince words when talking about Maryland’s move to the Big Ten: “Because if it’s not [a windfall], it just destroys the tradition and the history of rivalries, and the competition, and just says, ‘Okay, let’s pimp ourselves out, we’re going to go for the money.'” What sparked the commentary was NC State fans chanting “A-C-C” in the closing seconds of their win over the Terrapins on Monday night.
5. Tar Heel Blog: Great piece on why Roy Williams didn’t recruit any wing players for this season. The obvious answer is that he didn’t expect to need any with Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston expected to be available. But the issue is more complex than that, and Brian Barbour does a good job looking at a lot of different angles here. Recruiting issues tend to play out a couple of years later (except at Kentucky), but right now, I tend to agree with the theory that North Carolina is suffering because of early defections (both transfers and departures for the NBA) along with a couple of players who haven’t developed like Williams hoped.

VIDEO EXTRA: Mark Gottfried was psyched after NC State’s win without TJ Warren.

1. Baltimore Sun: Initially Mark Turgeon and Brenda Frese (Maryland’s women’s basketball coach) didn’t support the school’s move to the Big Ten. Turgeon went so far as to say that all the coaches he has talked to, except [football coach] Randy [Edsall], “are upset and opposed” to the move. It means Turgeon will have to redecorate his office, which currently has ACC team logos strewn about, and it will also potentially impact recruiting. Another fascinating tidbit from Jeff Barker’s piece is this excerpt from James Shea: “For some time, I have been bothered that these ‘traditional rivalries’ have provoked toxic reactions from abusive language at the games to riots and car burnings after victories.” Clearly Maryland’s ulterior motive was taking Duke off its schedule for good so the College Park fire department can get some rest.
2. ESPN: Tyler Ennis has had a remarkable freshman season so far. Based on win shares, he’s the most valuable freshman in the country and it’s not even close. His gaudy total probably comes from his elite assist-to-turnover ratio (4.2:1) or his knack for racking up steals. Whatever the case, I’m not sure anyone predicted Ennis would immediately prove to be one of the best point guards in the ACC. But he’s only got one challenger for rookie of the year, and Jabari Parker has not had a good start to conference play.
3. Duke Basketball Report: Guess how many halves of basketball in the last four years played by an ACC team finished with the team scoring fewer than 18 points? 26! And we’ve already had five of those this season. Clemson has two of the three with two 10-point halves over that time. As you might expect this recent low-scoring trend coincided with the ACC’s new group of coaches who have successfully stolen the slowest major conference title from the Big Ten even if they can’t win the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
4. One Foot Down: Notre Dame is reeling. The Fighting Irish have looked just awful in conference play — the win against Duke excluded. Their most recent loss came to Maryland in a game where Mike Brey’s squad led by nine before going ice cold to start the second half. The good news is that Notre Dame can try and right the ship this weekend with a home game against Virginia Tech. The bad news is that three early losses won’t help come March, in ACC Tournament seeding, or Selection Sunday.
5. Tar Heel Blog: Good take here on the North Carolina scandal and how it’s starting to get ugly. There’s a lot of miscommunication going on right now as the university claims it hasn’t seen the data, but whistleblower Mary Willingham claims the school can get the data themselves. CNN went way above and beyond her actual findings — making claims about the athletic department in general up to the present — in its initial reports (including claiming to have the data in a second article while linking to her four-year-old thesis). We may get some sort of resolution soon, or at least a comment from the administration, as the student newspaper has reported that Willingham sat down with the Chancellor.

1. Sports Illustrated: Y’all may not know this, but Maryland wants out of its ACC exit fee (which is admittedly a steep $52.3 million dollars). The Terrapins’ most recent legal strategy? Countersue the ACC for — get this — $157 million dollars! What? Maryland challenges that the ACC sent Wake Forest and Pittsburgh representatives to two Big Ten schools to lure them eastward. In addition Maryland notes that the ACC is “confiscating NCAA monies.” I’m going out on a limb (and agreeing with Martin Rickman) that the ACC isn’t going to pony up nine figures, and Maryland won’t fork over $50 million dollars. But this suit certainly looks like a Hail Mary of sorts. Speaking of looks and Maryland, keep an eye out for these “Maryland Heritage” jerseys tonight against Notre Dame. You’ll have to look really closely though.
2. Harrisburg Patriot News: Cool story on Devin Thomas, who’s from central Pennsylvania, and his development as an elite rebounder for the Demon Deacons. Apparently Thomas honed his rebounding skills in high school when he wasn’t the first option, meaning that he had to create his own shots. In the long run, Wake Forest needs Thomas to continue his elite rebounding and further develop the rest of his offensive game.
3. Fox Sports Florida: Ian Miller has really blossomed this year for Florida State. It was easy to predict in retrospect, as many foretold a breakout season for him last year before his injury. What has been a huge surprise is Miller’s knack at sharing the ball. He currently leads Florida State in assists, which is surprising if you watched his first two seasons with the Seminoles. Interestingly enough, Miller also averages the most minutes per game on the team despite coming off the bench.
4. Miami Herald: Apparently Jim Larranaga and his staff got a “crash course” in playing zone from Bernie Fine and Ralph Willard. Fine was a longtime Syracuse assistant under Jim Boeheim (you may remember him from the ESPN-broken scandal that turned out to be false), and Willard coached under Rick Pitino at Louisville and Kentucky (he also was an assistant at Syracuse back in the mid-1980s). So far the defense has been effective. Miami isn’t fouling while still holding conference opponents to low field goal percentages nearly every time out. The team’s offense still has a long way to go, however.
5. Fayetteville Observer: Last year Roy Williams turned around North Carolina’s season by going small. A couple of years prior he sat Larry Drew II, opening the door for Kendall Marshall to start. But those decisions both made a lot of sense at the time, and seemed obvious from an outsider’s perspective. This year, I don’t see a common thread for how to “fix” the beleaguered Tar Heels. Is it Leslie McDonald? (Probably not.) Should Marcus Paige play more off the ball? (Eh. Nate Britt still has a long way to go.) Williams has a problem that the Tar Heels are young and can’t shoot the basketball. There’s just too much pressure on Marcus Paige to put up Player of the Year numbers every night. It might not be fixable.

It’s the second weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 8, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST).

Saturday – North Carolina (10-5, 0-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (15-0, 2-0 ACC) – ESPN (12:00 PM)

CJ Fair and the Orange Look to Add to North Carolina’s Losing Streak

Pomeroy Prediction: (#5) Syracuse 75-64 (#34) North Carolina

There’s some chatter that it would be typical of this year’s up and down Tar Heels team to pull off another monumental upset in the Carrier Dome. But North Carolina has actually been more consistent lately, only in a bad way. The Heels do not look like a confident team right now. Still, Roy Williams has shown in the past (including this season) that he can motivate a team out of a slump. At least they appear to have one clear advantage on the offensive end they could exploit – offensive rebounding. Unfortunately for the Heels, the same is true on the other end with Syracuse hitting the offensive glass hard this season. Taking care of the ball will also be crucial against the long and active Syracuse zone. It will be interesting to see how many three-pointers each team takes. Neither likes to shoot many, but they both allow opponents to fire a bunch. Finally, a good start by the Heels (see: the Michigan State game) is important, but with the way the Orange has come back from big early deficits, even that may not be enough.

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1. Syracuse Post-Standard: I like this announcer cheat sheet (with handy pronunciation tips and fun facts). That said, I’m not sure I’ll ever pronounce Syracuse “sear-uh-kyusss” though that’s mostly because I have no idea how one would begin to pronounce that. Someone should do a similar post welcoming Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh to the conference with an intro for the ACC Network broadcasters. It can be rather jarring to see Mike Gminski’s outfits if you’re not warned ahead of time.
2. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: I’m still not sold on Pittsburgh and its vaunted physical defense just yet (although that physicality really changed TJ Warren’s game), mostly because they haven’t played a very good offensive team yet (Syracuse and Duke are lurking on the horizon). But it’s interesting that both Mark Gottfried and Mark Turgeon pointed to the Panthers’ depth — nine players log at least 10 minutes a game — as a big part of their success. However Maryland and NC State don’t have any depth, so that may speak to those teams’ weaknesses as much as Pittsburgh’s strength. But it’s still worth keeping an eye on going forward in conference play.
3. Washington Post: If you want to know exactly how Pittsburgh dismantled Maryland, Alex Prewitt has you covered. The team gave up a really concerning 18 points on 13 turnovers, and more importantly Dez Wells was nowhere to be found. I was surprised to see that Wells had such good numbers averaged over his other 12 road games since coming to College Park. That said, Pittsburgh just isn’t a good match-up for Maryland. They’re a team that plays great man-to-man defense with good help in the paint, but you have to be able to move the ball against that type of team. Maryland has a lot of talent, but efficiently moving the ball around the court isn’t the team’s forte.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: There’s been a good bit of buzz surrounding Jabari Parker‘s slow start in conference play, but to some extent this was to be expected. Why? He’s a freshman; teams generally put their best defensive forward on him; and, he’s been forced to guard the five as teams get bigger. Also, players of all ages and talents have good and bad games. But I think it’s important for Duke to find a way to limit playing Parker at the five because it’s not a position he’s comfortable or very effective guarding. The good news is that Marshall Plumlee has been working towards more meaningful minutes.
5. NC State Technician: Apparently NC State‘s student newspaper isn’t happy that its athletic department gets a little over two million dollars in bowl revenue sharing, but I’m not sure why anyone is upset. I’m not sure why it’s “disheartening” that a losing football team gets a bonus because it’s a part of a successful conference. That money is in no way tied to academics (unless you count support staff), and the academic side already receives similar bonuses (albeit not from the ACC) from the money its professors bring in with grants. Some money goes to the professors’ individual research, but a large plurality goes to the department and the school. Again, there are plenty of things to rail on with regards to college athletics, but shared bowl revenue probably isn’t very high on the list.

It’s the first weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcome of the game. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 1, 2014. The games are presented in the order that they will be played this weekend (all times EST).

Saturday – Pittsburgh (12-1) @ N.C. State (10-3) – ACC Network (12:00 PM)

Jamie Dixon And Pittsburgh Kick Off the First Weekend of ACC Conference Play vs N.C. State in Raleigh (US Presswire)

• Pittsburgh Offensive Efficiency – 114.1 (#24 in the NCAA)
•         N.C. State Defensive Efficiency – 100.4 (#110)

•         N.C. State Offensive Efficiency – 109.5 (#66)
•         Pittsburgh Defensive Efficiency – 92.5 (#11)

What to Watch For: In its first ACC conference game ever, Pitt looks to have a strong edge on the offensive end of the court. In particular, look for the Panthers to try to exploit the Wolfpack on the boards. Pitt comes in 11th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, while N.C. State is 237th in defensive rebounding percentage. Another area to watch is the mismatch in free throw attempts. N.C. State ranks near the bottom of the NCAA in free throw attempts, while Pitt rarely fouls. In fact, the Panthers actually had a game earlier this year against Cal Poly in which Pitt did not commit a single first half foul.

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As the non-conference portion of the 2013-14 college basketball season nears its conclusion and conference play looms large in the New Year, the ACC has seen its share of ups and downs along an uneven early stretch. While some of its teams (Duke, Syracuse) appear to be capable of the preseason hype bestowed upon them, others have been a mixture of confounding (North Carolina), shockingly underwhelming (Boston College, Maryland) and utterly but pleasantly surprising (Florida State). The conference some were talking about being the greatest college basketball had ever witnessed hasn’t shown the depth and consistency in non-conference play to justify that acoolade, but there is still a long way to go as this new-look league embarks into ACC play. Here’s a look back at the RTC preseason ACC rankings as voted upon by the writers and how those teams have performed thus far and look to perform as the season progresses.

To review Part One of this feature, click here.

6. Maryland (8-5)

The continued emergence of Roddy Peters bodes well for Maryland. (USA TODAY Sports)

• Signature Wins: Providence, at Boston College
• Signature Losses: Connecticut, Boston University
• Reasons for Optimism: Seth Allen is back, which should take pressure off of freshman Roddy Peters. But it’s also worth noting that Peters looks like he’ll be the real deal eventually. He’s already the team’s best distributor and his ability to draw contact in the lane should make him valuable going forward. Evan Smotrycz and Jake Layman make a pair of sharpshooting forwards who are a horrible match-up for anyone. Last but not least, the Terrapins already have a conference road win under their belt.
• Reasons for Pessimism: What looked to be a great one-two punch in the frontcourt has turned into an awful start for Shaquille Cleare and nothing special from Charles Mitchell. Also, home losses to Boston University and Oregon State raise serious questions about the team’s consistency. The team often loses sight of its strengths on offense (or commits needless turnovers), which leads to scoring droughts and opponent runs.
• Forecast: The losses essentially come down to defense: When the Terrapins hold opponents below a point per possession, they’re 6-0 (not counting Tulsa or George Washington, both of which effectively scored a point per possession). But when Maryland fails to limit its opponents on offense, the team is 1-4. This team needs to finish in the top three of the standings to sniff the NCAA Tournament, but the NIT should be in the cards with a strong conference showing.

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