With the basketball season set to tip off for some Big Ten teams on November 8, the five of us at the Big Ten microsite took a poll to see how the 12 teams will finish this upcoming season. If you missed it, we have already previewed teams #12 to #9, teams #8 to #5, and broke down our second and first team preseason selections. We also highlighted some potential Sixth Man of the Year candidates and picked our Freshman of the Year. What follows are the four teams that we feel are the cream of the crop in the league this year. These are the teams that are expected to be a factor nationally, and anything less than the Top 25 and multiple NCAA Tournament wins would be viewed as a disappointment. So feel free to debate, argue and discuss how much or how little we know what we’re talking about after reading through our selections.

Ben Brust is one of Wisconsin’s many perimeter weapons. .(Photo credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters).

4. Wisconsin

• What they do well: Pick out any defensive metric from last season and Wisconsin probably did it well. The Badgers finished in the top 10 nationally in overall defensive efficiency, opponent eFG%, and opponent three-point percentage.
• What they don’t do well: Ryan Evans pretty much destroyed any chance of the Badgers rating favorably at the free throw line. He led the team in attempts but shot only 42 percent. This should improve simply by subtracting him from the roster, but the team that ranked 324th in free throw percentage also struggled in getting to the line, checking in at 320th in free throw rate.
• Get to know: Nigel Hayes. Bo Ryan can’t solely count on Frank Kaminsky to replace three senior starters in the frontcourt, so he will need contributions from Hayes earlier than he might have had to on a team with more veterans returning. Look for Hayes to make an impact as a banger and athlete who does a lot of little things if he can pick up the nuances of the offensive system.
• Why they’ll finish fourth: Losing Evans, Jared Berggren, and Mike Bruesewitz will be just too much for Wisconsin to replicate defensively and on the glass. Josh Gasser won’t be the same coming back from ACL surgery, and Sam Dekker won’t make the leap from talented freshman to go-to-guy. Ben Brust goes into a shooting slump and the Badgers don’t get much outside shooting elsewhere.
• Why they’ll finish higher: Wisconsin is one of those “pencil them in” teams. Meaning there are certain teams that finish around the same spot in the standings whether they lose a bunch of players or return everybody. They are one of the most consistent programs in the country, and can easily win the Big Ten regular season if Gasser comes back unscathed from his injury. Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes step in and play better than the departed seniors, and Sam Dekker averages 18 PPG and becomes a legitimate All-America candidate.

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The title of this post asks a pretty straightforward question: Who is the best shooter from deep in the Big Ten? Seems simple enough. But how do you define the “best” three-point shooter? Is it the player who makes the most threes? Is it the player who makes the highest percentage of his threes? Is it the shooting specialist who contributes the most to his team’s wins?  The best approach, of course, is to appreciate all three characteristics. So let’s do exactly that and look into the numbers.

Andre Hollins lit it up from deep last year. (AP)

First, we need to create a list of players in the Big Ten who meet certain criteria. For the purpose of this analysis, we will only include returning Big Ten players and use last season’s statistics for measurement. While we recognize that freshmen can be highly effective from long range right out of the gate — look no further than Michigan sophomore Nik Stauskas last year — we have no set methodology for projecting freshman output from their high school performance. Therefore, in the interest of convenience, no freshmen are included in this list. The next criterion is that players must have attempted at least 100 3-pointers last season and shot at least 30 percent from deep. This filters out players with a high percentage from a small sample size of 3-point attempts and gunners who put up too many bricks to be considered top-tier shooters.

The table below displays our initial list of candidates given those criteria, and their pertinent statistics from the 2012-13 season (from basketball-reference.com).

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Michigan State has a lot of talent coming back this season, but on a loaded roster, sophomore Gary Harris is likely the best of them all. Harris has already been picked by CBSSports.com as the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, and it certainly won’t be the last preseason accolade he receives. Last season he averaged 12.9 points per game while shooting a robust 41 percent from 3-point range. His play had many speculating he would head to the NBA Draft last spring, but he returned to the Spartans to play alongside Keith Appling, Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson to push toward a B1G and national title. His return is a major reason Michigan State is No. 2 in the country to open the season.

Gary Harris is on the Short List for Big Ten POY in 2013-14 (Getty).

The biggest thing to remember about Harris last year, though, is that he was never really fully healthy with a right shoulder injury. This year, he has already been battling an ankle injury that put him at an estimated 75 percent effectiveness in early October, according to ESPN. This caused him to be held out of full contact practice when it started last month, but it appears he is finally back to his former self and ready to show what he is capable of without those nagging injuries.

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Deepak is a columnist for the RTC Big Ten microsite. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

With less than three weeks left until the start of the regular season, it is time to take a closer look at each of the Big Ten contenders. With three primary starters – Adreian Payne, Keith Appling, and Gary Harris – returning from last season, it wasn’t surprising to see Michigan State ranked in the top 10 of the Preseason Coaches Poll released last week, but the Spartans’ #2 ranking may have raised a few eyebrows. They don’t have the freshmen star power that several of the other top teams possess, but they have a lot of experience on their side – Payne and Appling are seniors who have led Tom Izzo’s team to two straight Sweet Sixteen appearances. Still, they won’t take that next step toward a Final Four or beyond without addressing the issue of Appling’s consistency.

Keith Appling’s consistency at the point guard position will be the key to Michigan State’s Final Four hopes.

Appling came to East Lansing as a combo guard but he wasn’t asked to play a traditional point guard role because Kalin Lucas already had that position covered. After Lucas’ departure, he was forced to not only learn the point guard position on the fly but also to lead Izzo’s backcourt. Breaking down defenders in one-on-one situations is not Appling’s problem — check out his game-winning layup against Kansas last season if you need further evidence of that. But he still struggles with shot selection, showing that he still hasn’t figured out his sweet spots as the point guard. Last season he would try to beat his defender at the top of the key way too often, thereby abandoning the team’s offensive game plan for multiple possessions per game. The dip in his three-point shooting over the past two seasons (from 41 percent as a freshman to 25 percent and 32 percent, respectively) indicates that he still pulls up too often from the perimeter when his defender cuts off the drive. Back when Lucas was setting up most of his shot attempts during the 2010-11 season, he made his jumpers with great accuracy; without a set-up man to get him the ball in good spots, Appling has not proven that he yet knows the balance of when to look for his own shot or facilitate for others.

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Bennet Hayes is an RTC columnist. He can be reached @HoopsTraveler. Periodically throughout the preseason, RTC will take an in-depth look at the schedules of some of the more prominent teams in college basketball.

Watch out for Sparty in 2013-14. Tom Izzo returns nearly every key contributor from his Sweet 16 squad of a year ago, with only bruising big man Derrick Nix since departed. More good news for East Lansing’s finest: the Big Ten shouldn’t prove quite as challenging as it did last season as fellow top-four finishers Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio State all suffered major personnel losses in the offseason. That may mean some turnover at the top, especially with a number of teams in the bottom half of the conference looking improved from a season ago. So, sure – you can expect a little reshuffling at the top of the Big Ten. But with the returns of Keith Appling, Gary Harris, and Adreian Payne (among others) to East Lansing, you should also feel pretty safe in believing that Sparty will be right where they always are come March – in the hunt for a Big Ten title, preparing themselves for a sustained Tournament push.

The Emergence Of Spartan Big Man Adreian Payne Makes Michigan State A Scary Team (Getty Images)

• Team Outlook: Despite the arrival of a relatively underwhelming freshmen class – neither center Gavin Schilling nor shooting guard Alvin Ellis has the look of a minute-eating freshman, Tom Izzo’s cupboard is fully stocked. The backcourt features the Spartan’s two top scorers from a year ago in Keith Appling (13.4 PPG, 3.3 APG) and Gary Harris (12.9 PPG, 41% 3PT). Both battled nagging injuries throughout last winter, so an offseason of rest and rehabilitation may have been just what the Spartans needed although Harris appears to have suffered a temporary setback with a sprained ankle that will keep him out until at least the start of practice. With another year under their belt and improved health (knock on wood), there should be an expectation of increased, or at least more efficient, contributions from the duo. The third centerpiece of this Spartan club is center Adreian Payne, who broke out in his sophomore season posting season averages of 10.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 1.3 BPG as the big man even showed an unexpectedly refined touch from deep. After only attempting two three-pointers in his first season in East Lansing, Payne went 16-42 from beyond the stripe last season, giving Izzo (and NBA scouts) hope that he might progress even further here in year three. Branden Dawson (8.9 PPG and 5.9 RPG) is the fourth Spartan returning starter, while versatile sophomore Denzel Valentine (5.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG) would seem like the top candidate to occupy the starting slot left open by the departure of Nix, an insertion that would necessitate a slide to the power forward position for Dawson. Sophomore Travis Trice (4.8 PPG, 1.9 APG) should operate as a capable backup for Appling at the point, but Tom Izzo will have decisions to make in rounding out the bench rotation beyond Trice. Matt Costello and Alex Gauna only averaged about six minutes per game each a season ago, but both could be thrust into larger roles this time around. Junior Russell Byrd and the freshman Schilling may also be options for Izzo in his quest to sort out the frontcourt rotation, as he seeks to at least partially replace the physicality and production that Nix brought to the table last season. Payne and Dawson should take care of plenty of that by themselves, and let’s also remember that this is Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans – if you can’t rebound you don’t see the floor, so expect the old coach to find some tough role players somewhere on the roster. Read the rest of this entry »

Although we are less than a month removed from Louisville’s win over Michigan in the National Championship game, it certainly isn’t too soon to look ahead to what the 2013-14 season has in store. With this past Sunday the deadline to declare for the June NBA Draft, we now have a much better idea who the top teams in the country should be once the ball is tipped again in November. In looking at the top of our Post-NBA Draft Deadline Top 25, there are three teams bunched together separated by just three votes — in fact, Louisville and Michigan State are knotted together at the top. It isn’t all too often that a team wins it all, graduates its starting point guard, has its best frontcourt player leave for the NBA, and is still perhaps the top team in the nation, but that’s the case for Rick Pitino and his Cardinals. With Russ Smith and Chane Behanan returning, Louisville will be the early favorites to win the AAC — the ACC, keep in mind, doesn’t come for UofL until 2014. Michigan State received good news on Sunday when Adreian Payne announced he would be returning to East Lansing for his senior season. Payne’s return, coupled with the return of Gary Harris — the Big Ten Freshman of the Year — and Keith Appling, make the Spartans a legitimate championship contender next season. Lastly, there’s Kentucky. Did you really think Cal & Co. weren’t going to be up there? They may not be ranked #1 at this point, but with a downright scary recruiting class incoming boasted by the Harrison twins and Julius Randle — perhaps the top Class of 2013 recruit — the Wildcats’ expectations are sky high. Despite not finishing in the Top 25 and losing at Robert Morris in the NIT, Kentucky will enter 2013-14 as a top three team in the RTC .

The usual Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…

Quick n’ Dirty:

Whether it is through an exceptional recruiting class, or an impressive finish to the 2012-13 season coupled with a strong nucleus returning, the following four teams surged upward — and for good reason.

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What does it say about the state of a program when it makes another Sweet Sixteen — its 11th since 1998 — and the fan base is not all too thrilled? That’s not to say Michigan State fans don’t appreciate the feat (it really is remarkable) but it’s just an indication of how strong this program has grown under Tom Izzo, particularly in March. At times this year, the Spartans looked like a surefire Final Four team and a national title contender after many had discounted them early in the Big Ten race. But they had injuries, inconsistency from Keith Appling and a hell of a draw in the NCAA Tournament standing in their way. To further evaluate Michigan State’s year, let’s take a closer look:

Adreian Payne broke out this year as an all-conference caliber player. Will he return for another season? (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

The Good

Right around the time Michigan State beat rival Michigan, 75-52, in a highly-anticipated intrastate rivalry blowout, we got a glimpse of just how good the Spartans could be. Everything came together that night. Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne gave the team a traditional athletic one-two punch inside, and Nix could be the only player leaving after this season if Payne decides to ignore the NBA for one more year. Gary Harris had a team-high 17 points with a 5-of-9 three-point shooting performance that helped earn him Freshman of the Year honors. Keith Appling was steady on both ends, providing excellent man-to-man defense on Michigan’s Trey Burke and finding his way into the lane and finishing. And Branden Dawson gave the Spartans energy around the rim. That game summarized everything that was good about the Spartans’ season — the five different players who could provide the team with a spark on any given night, the defense (seventh in KenPom’s adjusted defense), the rebounding prowess, and the individual talent. There were other high-water marks — wins against other top Big Ten teams, an important non-conference win against Kansas  (the Spartans’ had the nation’s No. 3 strength of schedule), and Izzo’s 11th Sweet Sixteen berth — but that game was the microcosm.

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1. When your NCAA Tournament hopes went out the window months ago, and there’s only a teeny-tiny chance you’ll be playing any postseason basketball at all, you have to focus on other ways to get something out of the season. That’s an unfamiliar feeling for Purdue, but it’s becoming a reality during this rebuilding season. While searching for the smaller things to get excited about, Matt Painter has found pleasure in the Boilermakers’ stretch of three games following their off-week. They’ve won two of the three, including an improbable win in Madison on Sunday against Wisconsin. “I think anytime you get extra time in the gym to get shots up, it helps,” Painter said. “My point to them was this is something you should always do, and I think coming from a team standpoint, it helps us.” The Boilermakers can use all the good mojo they can muster with tough games against Michigan and Minnesota remaining before the Big Ten Tournament.
2. Cody Zeller may not be the National Player of the Year, or even the Big Ten Player of the Year, that we thought he’d be at the beginning of this season. But Tom Crean believes what many others still believe to be true — Zeller’s time in Bloomington may still be short, so he advises Hoosier fans to enjoy watching the center in an Indiana jersey while they can.  The Hoosiers are likely to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and should make a good run at the school’s first national title since 1987. The closer they get, the more likely Zeller is to bolt for the NBA. He’ll almost certainly be a lottery pick. So as Assembly Hall honored the team’s seniors on Tuesday night against Ohio State, was it also the last time Zeller set foot on the floor as a player?
3. It’s impossible to have the conversation about the Big Ten’s talented freshmen this year without talking about Wisconsin‘s Sam Dekker. It’s not often that Bo Ryan lands a high-profile recruit, and it’s not often that a freshman makes his way into the Wisconsin playing rotation, but Dekker is clearly a special player. He joins Josh Gasser, Alando Tucker, and Devin Harris as the only players to ever start for Ryan in their first year, and he leads all Big Ten sixth men with 9.6 PPG this year. He’s been blanketed at times in the rotation by Ryan Evans, but you can believe we will be seeing plenty of this young player for many years to come.
4. Keith Appling has been known as Michigan State‘s closer, and one of the Spartans’ best defenders (and, at times, both). Now, he’s struggling in both of those departments. The junior guard was better against Michigan on Sunday, but is still mired in a bit of a funk that has gone on while the Spartans have dropped three straight. It’s no coincidence that as Appling’s play has declined, the Spartans have continued to lose. And the perception of them also has continued to slip. “Things just haven’t been going my way lately, but I’m a mentally tough person,” Appling said. “So, I don’t let it bother me too much. I just watch the film and try to grow from it.” It’s no secret that if the Spartans are going to make one of their patented March runs, they need Appling play more like himself.
5. There were plenty of differences between Michigan State’s romp over rival Michigan a few weeks ago and the Wolverines’ close win on Sunday in Ann Arbor. But few were more significant than the play of Michigan freshman Mitch McGary, who had four points and four turnovers in the first meeting, then turned around and had 11 points and four boards (three offensive) in 21 minutes of the rematch. Derrick Nix dominated the Wolverines inside in the first meeting, either by scoring or kicking back out to find the Spartans’ guards, but the Michigan State big man was rendered mostly ineffective on Sunday and much of that credit has to go to McGary. The Wolverines have always had one of the best backcourts in the country, but if they can get consistent play from the freshman, they are back to being a national title contender.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

For some teams, the Championship Fortnight (as Kyle Whelliston would call it) begins this week. For most others, this is the final week of the regular season. Many teams sit squarely on the bubble and need to impress in their final two contests to show they deserve to be in the Tourney. We’ve waited all year for March. It’s finally here and all indications tell us it’s going to be a wild month. Let’s get to the breakdowns!

Illinois at Iowa – 7:00 PM EST, Tuesday on BTN (***)

It looks like John Groce and Illinois are in but a couple more losses might change the equation

• This is a hugely important game for both teams. At 7-9 in the Big Ten, Iowa is need of two wins to make its case for an at large tournament bid. They close the regular season at home against Illinois and Nebraska. If they can pick up the two victories and get to .500 in conference, Fran McCaffery and company make a decent case to get in. For Illinois, it looks like they will get in however they can ill afford to drop their next two games. In addition to this game at Iowa, they must travel too Ohio State. A loss against the Hawkeyes puts a ton of pressure on John Groce’s team heading into the last game of the season, so this one is critical. Look to see if Iowa’s size bothers the Illini. Illinois is a much better two-point shooting team than they are at three-point shooting team. However, getting points inside against Iowa’s length could be tough to come by. Regardless, Brandon Paul, Tracy Abrams, and D.J. Richardson must be aggressive in taking the ball to the basket and trying to get to the line. If Illinois is settling for jumpers on the outside, they will lose. Iowa needs to win this game with defense. Their offense just isn’t strong enough to win it for them. Protecting the ball and playing good defense without fouling are their top priorities. If they are turning the ball over and fouling, Illinois will win. The team that wins the free throw battle should come out on top in this match-up.

#13 Ohio State at #1 Indiana – 9:00 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPN (****)

• In the first match-up this season between these two squads, Ohio State had no answer for Cody Zeller and Victor Olidipo. They combined to go 16-of-21 from the field and 17-of-21 from the line, grabbed 16 rebounds, and scored 50 of the 81 points. Throw in Christian Watford’s 20 points and IU’s front line obliterated OSU. If the Buckeyes want any chance to win this game in Bloomington, they must get way better defense from Evan Ravenel, Amir Williams, DeShaun Thomas, and LaQuinton Ross. Offensively, they can’t run with Indiana, however OSU’s half-court offense is suspect at best. So while their defense must create turnovers and get out on the break, they must be careful not to turn this game into a track meet. OSU’s ability to win this game sits squarely on the shoulders of their frontline. They need better defense and more scoring. If they can get that, they have a chance to win. Otherwise, this could be a blowout. Read the rest of this entry »

Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

If you weren’t already convinced that the Big Ten is the most competitive conference in college hoops, the games in February should have showed you enough to change your opinion. The games featured buzzer-beaters, multiple overtimes and quite a few upsets over the past 28 days, but March could take it to another level. The obvious questions for each team in March will revolve around its performance in the postseason tournaments, but there are more intriguing questions on our minds about the next month. Let’s address five specific questions that that we will track about some of the best Big Ten teams in March.

Can Trey Burke take his game to another level in March? (AP Photo/T. Ding)

1. Can Trey Burke get back into the conversation for NPOY? Burke is still considered the top guard in the nation and hasn’t fallen out of the conversation for NPOY, but it feels like he has flown under the radar a little bit during February – partly because the Wolverines have had some tough losses on the road to Wisconsin, Michigan State and (yeesh) Penn State, and it also didn’t help his case that Indiana’s Victor Oladipo has repeatedly proven that he may be the best player in the Big Ten. Burke’s scoring average hasn’t dropped but he has taken more shots than he would prefer to keep his team competitive on the road. Burke will have two big opportunities in Ann Arbor soon – against Michigan State and Indiana – to again showcase his game in the national spotlight and prove that he is ready to lead the Wolverines to a Final Four.
   
2. Who is Michigan State’s go-to guy in March? We have seen flashes of brilliance from Adreian Payne and Gary Harris over the past two weeks but can Tom Izzo rely on a forward who hasn’t consistently looked for his offense and a freshman guard during the clutch this postseason? If Payne wants to be that guy, he needs to demand the ball during the final minutes but he hasn’t been that assertive this year. Izzo would love to have Keith Appling be that guy because he already has the ball in his hands during the final moments and can create his own shot off the dribble. The junior guard had an off-night against Indiana (six points) and Ohio State (three points) but the Spartans need him to score 15 PPG in order to make it to the third weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Read the rest of this entry »