1. Arizona has become a trendy pick to get upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats will play Belmont on Thursday and analysts of CBS Sports, Yahoo!, ESPN and USA Today have predicted an early exit for Arizona. Solomon Hill and Jordan Mayes don’t seem to be worried, however, noting that analysts are just doing their job and it won’t affect their preparation or performance. Arizona has the talent to compete with anyone in the field of 68, but nothing will come easy starting with Belmont. The Bruins were the Ohio Valley Conference champions and are the 18th best three-point shooting team in the nation at 38.6 percent. That doesn’t bode well for Arizona as they rank 276th in the nation in defending the three with opponents shooting 36 percent from behind the arc.
2. Cal’s Justin Cobbs has finally found his balance. When the Bears take on UNLV Thursday, it will be a rematch of a non-conference game from earlier in the season when the Runnin’ Rebels came away with a 76-75 victory on a last second tip-in. Cobbs understands his role at this point of the season much better as a combination of a scorer and facilitator for Mike Montgomery’s offense. Earlier in the year, Cobbs was shooting poorly by averaging just 11.4 points per game and couldn’t find his rhythm. Over the past 13 games, however, Cobbs is averaging 17.1 points and 5.7 assists per game. Allen Crabbe is the focal point of the Cal offense, but if the Bears want to get past UNLV this time, they are going to need a strong game from Cobbs.
3. Craig Robinson started out the season by saying this Oregon State team was the best he has ever had, and now he’s the first to say it was a disappointment. The Beavers finished a lowly 4-14 in the Pac-12, but if any of the Oregon State faithful want a coaching change, it’s unlikely to happen this year. Athletic director Bob De Carolis met with Robinson in Las Vegas last week and confirmed that the administration is still in full support of its head coach. Next year, the Beavers will lose Joe Burton but will return Angus Brandt who had a season-ending knee injury very early in the year. In addition to Brandt, the Beavers will have Roberto Nelson, Devon Collier, and Ahmad Starks all back, but if they can’t make strides in the 2013-14 season, Robinson could find himself on the hot seat.
4. Arizona State and Herb Sendek plan to make the most of out of their NIT appearance. Tonight the Sun Devils will play Detroit in Tempe and won’t be taking them lightly at all. Although Arizona State is playing in the postseason, there is some disappointment from the fans that the team didn’t reach the NCAA Tournament. Sendek isn’t one of those disappointed, though, mentioning that there is no way Arizona State won’t be motivated as they will get another opportunity to play in front of their home crowd in a postseason setting.
5. For the first time in a half-century, Colorado is in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. The Buffaloes will be playing in Austin against Illinois on Friday afternoon and will certainly have a significant rebounding advantage. Colorado has Andre Roberson who averages 11.3 rebounds per game while Illinois’ best rebounder is Nnanna Egwu who pales in comparison at only 4.6 rebounds per game. Tad Boyle said after practice yesterday that Roberson will guard Illinois’ leading scorer Brandon Paul, which could spell trouble for the Illini as Roberson has already successfully defended Allen Crabbe and Solomon Hill this year.

1. Ben Howland’s future at UCLA is still in question. Howland has deflected all questions about his job status to athletic director Dan Guerrero, and with a difficult match-up looming against Minnesota in the NCAA Tournament, it’s still not clear what the head coach needs to do to keep his job in Westwood. Would a Sweet Sixteen appearance suffice or is a Final Four appearance necessary? If Howland were to be relieved of his duties at the end of this year, he would leave UCLA with a career 233-106 record (as of now), four conference titles, and three Final Four appearances. No matter the accolades Howland and UCLA have racked up in his tenure, though, it has to be noted that the Bruins didn’t qualify for the NCAA Tournament in two out of the past three seasons and therefore it wouldn’t be a shock to see him fired at the end of the season.
2. Although Arizona ended the season poorly, the selection committee still considered the Wildcats as the top team in the Pac-12 from a seeding perspective. If UCLA freshman Jordan Adams hadn’t suffered a season-ending foot injury in the Pac-12 Tournament, the Wildcats’ fate may have been different according to committee chair Mike Bobinski. Despite the Bruins and Wildcats both getting #6 seeds, the Wildcats were given the geographical advantage with the chance to play in the West Region in Los Angeles whereas the Bruins would have to play their games in Arlington, Texas.
3. The selection committee’s message to the Pac-12 on Sunday seemed to be that the conference still has a lot to prove. The conference was given little respect as Oregon received a peculiar #12 seed after winning the Pac-12 Tournament. Also, an argument can be made that both UCLA and Arizona were deserving of higher seeds given that both teams finished in the final AP Top 25. Although the conference vastly improved from last year’s inferior product, its track record in the NCAA Tournament in recent years hasn’t been anything to brag about. In the past four years, only three teams from the Pac-12 have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.
4. If Oregon freshman Dominic Artis feels any nerves before his first NCAA Tournament game, he has a pretty good mentor who he could call on for advice. The Ducks’ point guard has known former Weber State and current Portland Trail Blazers’ guard Damian Lillard since grade school in Oakland and the two don’t differ much on the court. Both are confident, inspiring young players in their respective leagues at the point guard position and the duo talks almost every other week. The Ducks will certainly need Artis to play great this week as they will take on Oklahoma State. Artis will have to deal with imposing  Cowboys’ point guard and USBWA All-American Marcus Smart, but he won’t shy away from the challenge any more than Lillard would.
5. Washington State athletic director Bill Moos hasn’t made a decision yet about head coach Ken Bone‘s status. Although Bone hasn’t done anything to exceed expectations in Pullman, he did finish the season on a high note by upsetting USC and UCLA at home and nearly taking down Washington in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. Bone doesn’t seem to be concerned about his status, but if he were to let go, Washington State would owe him a buyout of $2.55 million next year.

Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), Midwest (11 AM), South (1 PM), West (3 PM). Here, Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) breaks down the West Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC West Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCwestregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Andrew breaking down the West Region, which will drop both on the site and on iTunes Tuesday.

West Region

Favorite: #2 Ohio State (26-7, 16-5 Big Ten). Not to take anything away from Gonzaga, a team and a program that should be very pleased with itself for the excellent season it has had, but the Buckeyes get the nod by an eyelash. While the Zags have been coasting through WCC play for the past couple months, Thad Matta’s club has dealt with the gauntlet of the Big Ten and emerged with an eight-game winning streak, boasting wins over teams like Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan State (twice). Aaron Craft, a veteran guard with plenty of great basketball in his past, is probably playing the best ball of his distinguished career. And guys like LaQuinton Ross, Sam Thompson and Lenzelle Smith are tossing in just enough offense to aid big-time scorer Deshaun Thomas. Throw in the nation’s sixth-best team in defensive efficiency and let’s make the battle-tested Buckeyes a slight favorite to repeat as a Final Four team.

Aaron Craft and The Buckeyes Have Been Through The Big Ten Gauntlet, Making Them The Slight West Regional Favorite

Should They Falter: #1 Gonzaga (31-2, 18-0 WCC). It would be easy to play the contrarian here and offer up plenty of backlash to the Bulldogs’ first-ever #1 seed and name New Mexico – a pretty darn good team in their own right – as the next best team in this region. But make no mistake, Gonzaga can ball. With Kelly Olynyk, a first-team All-American favorite, the Zags have the third-most efficient offense in the nation and Mark Few’s best offensive team in his time in Spokane. And while there are some concerns about the Zags’ ability to match up defensively with big and athletic guards, this is a team that is also Few’s most efficient defensive team ever – by far. While there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks (regardless of who they face in the Round of 32, that looks like a serious rumble, for instance), the Zags definitely have the ability to reach an Elite Eight. Or better. Read the rest of this entry »

After a great Pac-12 Tournament wrapped up Saturday night, we found out Sunday exactly where all of the conference’s teams will be wrapping up their seasons. Five teams will take part in the Big Dance, three others will compete in the NIT, while four teams (Oregon State, USC, Utah and Washington State) have completed their seasons. We’ll break down everybody’s destination below.

UCLA – NCAA, #6 seed in South region, vs. Minnesota, 3/22, 6:57 PM PDT, TruTV – The conference’s regular season champion may or may not have gotten dinged a seed line because of Jordan Adams’ season-ending injury, but either way, the Selection Committee sure didn’t do them any favors. Aside from sending them to Austin, Texas, for their opening round game (the farthest any Pac-12 team has to travel), the Bruins land perhaps the toughest match-up that they could have found at the #11 seed. The Golden Gophers are big, athletic and deep, all things that could cause serious trouble for Ben Howland’s team. If instead UCLA had been matched up with either Bucknell, Belmont or the winner of the Saint Mary’s/Middle Tennessee State first-round game, the Bruins would likely be strong favorites to at least make it to Sunday. Instead, UCLA opened a two-point underdog in Las Vegas to the Golden Gophers.

Ben Howland And The Bruins Drew A Tough NCAA Opponent (Jamie Squire, Getty Images)

Arizona – NCAA, #6 seed in West region, vs. Belmont, 3/21, 4:20 PM PDT, TNT – The Wildcats got a fair seed, but they’ll face a Belmont team that is perennially considered a possible Cinderella this time of year. One of the nation’s best shooting teams, the Wildcats will have to extend Nick Johnson, Mark Lyons and Kevin Parrom out to pick up the Bruins’ shooters upcourt, but if UA can cause problems for those shooters, they may have too much size and athleticism for their opponent. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Yesterday, of course, was Selection Sunday, and it was revealed that five teams from the Pac-12 will play in the NCAA Tournament. There were a couple of surprises, most notably Oregon receiving a #12 seed. The Ducks’ résumé was on par with most of the #7 seeds, so it comes as a head-scratcher that the Pac-12 Tournament champions, not to mention a team that was one game behind the regular season conference champion, would have been on the bubble. One now wonders what would have happened if Oregon had lost to UCLA on Saturday night instead of pulling out the victory; possibly a trip to Dayton for the First Four? The spokesperson for the NCAA selection committee said after the bracket was revealed that the Ducks were actually on the #11 seed line and were dropped down for bracketing purposes, but even that is still much lower than anyone expected. As to what typically occurs when a team gets underseeded in the NCAAs, it will be their opponent that gets the worst of it. That lucky team is Oklahoma State, who perhaps thought it’d be facing a team like Temple or La Salle coming into the day; not the Pac-12 Tournament champs.
2. Almost as looked forward to as the actual unveiling of the field of 68 is the announcement of game times, networks, and commentators for the Second Round match-ups. Those were released late last night, and here they are. The Ducks are the first Pac-12 team to hit the floor, and they will do so on Thursday at 1:40 PM PT on TNT. Calling the game will be a solid trio consisting of Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner, and Marty Snider. The two other Pac-12 teams to play Thursday are Arizona (vs. Belmont; TNT), and California (in a rematch against UNLV; TruTV), in two games that will virtually be playing at the same time that afternoon. The Wildcats tip at 4:20 PM with the superb team of Spero Dedes, Doug Gottlieb, and Jamie Maggio calling the action, while Cal will begin seven minutes later with the same bunch that Oregon had. On Friday, Colorado will tip off against Illinois at 1:40 PM on TNT, with Tim Brando, Mike Gminski, and Otis Livingston calling the action, and UCLA plays Minnesota at 6:57 PM on TruTV with the same crew.
3. Not only was the NCAA field released on Sunday, but the NIT revealed its 32-team bracket as well. Arizona State, Stanford, and Washington will compete in the consolation tournament, with the Sun Devils and Cardinal hosting Detroit and Stephen F. Austin, respectively, and the Huskies traveling to Provo to face BYU.
4. Despite its #12 seed, Oregon has the talent to make a run through this year’s tournament and become a nationally relevant program for the first time since the days of Kevin Love, James Harden, and Aaron Brooks. Beat Oklahoma State and you take the step from a nice little comeback story to a team to watch. Beat Saint Louis — one of the hottest teams in the nation and a trendy Elite Eight pick? You won’t just be recognized as a west coast football school that had a good year in basketball anymore.
5. As you have probably heard, Northwestern fired head coach Bill Carmody on Saturday after 13 years in Evanston. What you probably didn’t hear, or expect to hear, was that Oregon State head coach Craig Robinson‘s name is showing up on many short lists of possible candidates for the vacant job. Scott Powers’ list goes in a lot of different directions, everywhere from VCU’s Shaka Smart to Duke assistant Chris Collins. But in the middle is Robinson, a former Wildcats’ assistant who grew up in Chicago and has recruited the area. It is very possible that Robinson would get an interview for the gig, but it’s tough seeing a program desperate for success offering the job to a man that failed to lead his team to any type of postseason tournament in 2012-13, much less even out of the basement in his own league.

After four months of basketball, the NCAA, NIT, and CBI fields will be released later today. In this piece, I project how each Pac-12 team fits into the field and where the national bubble stands. To review last night’s post, click here.

*Conference Champ

We’ll just run through this quickly and address the changes from last night. Arizona drops one spot as a result of Saint Louis’ win against Butler. That means the Wildcats now face the winner of the Boise State/Middle Tennessee First Four game. UCLA drops one spot as well after losing to Oregon. They also get a much tougher match-up in Minnesota than what I projected last night (Bucknell). Oregon climbed four spots after upsetting UCLA, but because North Carolina got a good win as well, the Ducks are still in the dreaded #8/#9 game. They face San Diego State in my projections. There are no changes on the bubble, as Colorado and California didn’t move at all after last night’s action. Both teams remain #10 seeds and still face Colorado State and Creighton.

In the NIT, Arizona State remains a #2 seed but gets a new first round opponent after some NIT auto bids were handed out last night. They now get Stephen F. Austin at the Wells Fargo Arena early next week, a dangerous club that finished the regular season 27-4. Stanford is just behind the Sun Devils as a #3 seed and gets a very tough match-up in Northern Iowa.

Due to the increase in NIT automatic bids over the past couple of days, Washington won’t make the field of 32. They are my seventh team out of the field and host UTEP in the first round of the CBI.

National Bubble Watch – NCAA

• Last Four Byes: Wichita State, Temple, La Salle, Virginia (last bye)
• Last Four In: Boise State, Iowa State, Villanova, Middle Tennessee
• First Four Out: Kentucky, Mississippi, Southern Miss, Iowa
• Next Four Out: Alabama, Arizona State, Tennessee, Baylor

Some think Villanova and Boise State are locks, but I just don’t see it that way. The Wildcats have an RPI rank of #51; far from a team locked into the field. Both will make it, but with a rough Championship Week, they’ll be going to Dayton. La Salle, meanwhile, should avoid the First Four. Finishing tied for third in the Atlantic 10 is no small task, and the Explorers finished with quality wins over Villanova, Iona, Butler, and VCU. The only other pick that is widely disagreed with is the exclusion of Mississippi, but I ask you this; just count the wins. Count the wins in which the Rebels have beaten a solid team, and compare it to the list of Villanova, Iowa State, or even Kentucky. They don’t even come close. Ole Miss could still make the field if they knock off Florida later this morning, meaning Middle Tennessee would likely drop to the NIT.

Kentucky and Iowa will be closer to the field of 68 than you think. And so will Alabama and Arizona State. With the softness of the bubble this season, anyone can make the case that the Wildcats should be in over the Blue Raiders, or that the Crimson Tide could beat Iowa State.

Read the rest of this entry »

After four months of basketball, fields for the NCAA, NIT, and CBI will be released tomorrow. In this piece, we’ll put together where each Pac-12 team fits into the picture as of late afternoon Saturday.

*Conference Champ

Definitely Dancing: Arizona is the highest ranked Pac-12 team, and will remain the highest no matter the result of the UCLA/Oregon game tonight. The Wildcats have to like their current standing on the seed line, as it gives them a chance at an opening game with a team that will have played two days earlier. I project either Iowa State or Virginia to be that team, and if I were a Wildcats fan, I’d be pulling hard for Virginia rather than the Cyclones. Next up is six seed UCLA, and if they beat Oregon tonight to take home both the regular season and conference titles, I see them climbing up to a low five-seed. But right now they would match up with Bucknell, the Patriot League champions that finished the season at 28-5. The Bison are much more dangerous than your usual mid-major conference champion, ranking only behind Gonzaga, New Mexico, Saint Louis, Memphis, and Creighton as the mid-major conference champs. Our final lock goes to Oregon, a team that slipped to the bubble last week before winning its first two Pac-12 Tournament games and advancing to the tournament championship game. The Ducks will of course want to win tonight, but knowing their only escape from the #8/#9 game will be with a loss to the Bruins, a defeat wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If they were to remain where they currently are at 3:00 PM PT tomorrow, I have Dana Altman and company meeting NC State in the Second Round.

Read the rest of this entry »

Day three of the Pac-12 Tournament is complete, and teams have made their may through the 12 team field to tonight’s championship game. The first team through was top-seeded UCLA, who used an 18-7 run late in the second half to erase an 11-point deficit and pull out a two point win over Arizona. In the second game of the night, Oregon took advantage of a tired Utah team and led the Utes by 14 at halftime before cruising to a 64-45 win.

Here are four things that stood out on day three of the Pac-12 Tournament:

UCLA Freshman Shabazz Muhammad Scored 11 Points and Grabbed Six Rebounds As The Bruins Advanced To The Pac-12 Championship (USA Today)

1. Adams’ Last Game? – UCLA freshman Jordan Adams may have played his last game as a Bruin last night after breaking his fifth metatarsal in his right foot on the final play of the game. Adams led all scorers with 24 points before breaking the foot trying to defend Solomon Hill’s last shot. A few weeks back Adams said he did not want to discuss his future and just wanted to focus on finishing the rest of the season. With his season complete, look for an announcement in the coming days on whether the star guard will go to the NBA this summer.
2. Pac-12 Refs – With 4:35 remaining in the game and Arizona leading 56-54, point guard Mark Lyons drove into the lane, had the ball slightly dislodged by a Bruin defender, caught the ball, and resumed his dribble. This was inexplicably called a double-dribble by the officiating crew, and then the officials compounded their mistake by T’ing up head coach Sean Miller. The calls resulted in two made free throws to knot up the score, the first time the score was not an Arizona lead since the 14:30 mark in the first half. Pac-12 refs gonna Pac-12 ref – nuff’ said.  Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-12 Conference. He filed this report from Thursday afternoon’s Pac-12 Tournament session in Las Vegas.

First and foremost, let’s congratulate the Pac-12 conference on finally having a relevant conference tournament. Even in the glory days of the Pac-12 when NBA lottery picks littered rosters up and down the west coast, the tournament at the Staples Center was never a great event. First, while Los Angeles is a fine city to live in (at least according to this Angeleno), it isn’t a great destination for out-of-towners. It’s spread out and the area right around the Staples Center is not exactly the type of place that is incredibly inviting for vacationers. Then there’s the Staples Center itself – a cavernous arena much better suited to the soulless grind of the NBA than the excitement of March college hoops, made even worse when a mere fraction of the seats were occupied. Then there was a theory – which never meant much in practice – that it was a home court advantage for the Los Angeles schools.

The New Home Of The Pac-12 Tournament Has Been A Rousing Success

Well, all of those worries are out the door with the move to the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. It is certainly a destination spot, it offers plenty of affordable and centrally-located hotel options, the arena itself is big enough to welcome in fans from around the conference yet small enough to be intimate and loud, and this is clearly a neutral environment. I can’t imagine that this tournament is going to be held anywhere other than Las Vegas for a long, long time.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. When the quarterfinals get underway later today in the Pac-12 Tournament, Mike Montgomery and Cal will be ready. Guard Justin Cobbs knows any team is capable of winning the event and hopes that Cal will be the team to do just that. The Bears will face Utah and if Cal can play the way they did down the stretch of the regular season, they could walk away as the tournament champions. Part of the reason Cal finished the season by winning nine of its final 11 games was its strong defense, holding opponents to 39 percent shooting from the field (best in the conference).
2. Arizona’s late season struggles could affect the Wildcats come Selection Sunday. Committee chair Mike Bobinski noted how a team finishes is certainly important and that might not bode well for Sean Miller’s team if it doesn’t have a strong conference tournament. Without question, the Wildcats are a lock for the field of 68, but better play in Vegas could certainly earn them a higher seed. Additionally, winning multiple games certainly would make Arizona a little more confident before the NCAA Tournament as the Wildcats don’t have a truly notable win since beating San Diego State in December 2012.
3. The status of Ben Howland’s job as head coach of the Bruins has been a recurring topic this year, but Howland is choosing to reflect on his latest Pac-12 title rather than an unpredictable future. This year, Howland has been more relaxed than usual. After a disappointing loss to Cal Poly and near loss to UC Irvine early in the season, Howland clearly revamped his offensive philosophy with this team. The Bruins get out and run more than ever and have a much more open offense than they have in years past. Nevertheless, a successful turnaround and a Pac-12 regular title isn’t enough to keep Howland off the hot seat. Only success in the NCAA Tournament will decide if the veteran coach stays in Westwood.
4. A coach that might be on a hotter seat than Howland right now is Stanford’s Johnny Dawkins. With a loss to Arizona State yesterday, the Cardinal will miss the NCAA Tournament again and even another NIT championship might not be enough to keep the former Duke assistant in Palo Alto. Under Dawkins, Stanford has posted an above average 93-73 overall record, but hasn’t finished better than sixth in any year in the Pac-12. The Cardinal were picked by many this year to finally play up to their potential and finish near the top of the league standings, but that didn’t happen. It will be interesting to see how Stanford brass chooses to handle the head coaching position.
5. Arizona State co-Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Jahii Carson was sensational yesterday against Stanford, scoring 34 points in their 89-88 overtime win, but Arizona State athletic director Steve Patterson says the team needs to continue to upgrade its talent. Carson is likely to leave for the NBA before his four years are up as a Sun Devil and if ASU doesn’t continue to improve as a program, they might be set back once again. Patterson noted with rival Arizona ahead of the curve in recruiting and talent, thinking about remaining more than just competitive is necessary.