Once again, the Big Ten/ACC Challenge is upon us. The annual event pits the best conference in the country against a conference that houses an institution of dubious academic integrity. Both the Big Ten and ACC have new entrants in their respective leagues, including one crossover in Maryland, which should provide for more intriguing storylines. It also means that the Challenge expanded its slate from twelve to fourteen games. In this post, I examine all fourteen matchups by using both KenPom and Sagarin ratings to determine which of the games are more heavily favored to go into the Big Ten’s side of the ledger as a win, and which ones are long shots for our conference. The table below shows the expected margin of victory for each Big Ten team — negative numbers obviously means a loss — from both ratings and their average, which we will use as our primary barometer. (Home court advantage is reflected in these margins).

According to the average point differential and subsequent outcomes, this analysis expects another close Challenge with the Big Ten winning seven games, the ACC winning six games, and one toss-up game. Individually, KenPom has Big Ten winning the Challenge 8-6, while Sagarin has it tied at 7-7. A majority of these games are expected to be close, with six of the games having an average point differential of one bucket (two points) or less. Ironically, Penn State – a perennial bottom dweller in the Big Ten — is the biggest favorite to win their matchup as they have home court advantage against a Virginia Tech team with losses to Appalachian State and Northern Iowa. The other expected wins for the Big Ten are made up of teams with home court advantage over competitive ACC teams (Wisconsin/Duke and Michigan/Syracuse) and teams who are playing bad ACC teams (Minnesota/Wake Forest. and Nebraska/Florida St.). Some of the Big Ten’s well performing teams have unfavorable matchups against competitive opponents on the road (Illinois/Miami and Ohio State/Louisville). Finally, the biggest longshot for a Big Ten win is Rutgers, who is a 10-point underdog to a Clemson team that already has losses to Winthrop and Gardner-Webb. So in case you were wondering who the worst team from both conferences was, look no further than Eddie Jordan’s squad.

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After 38 games in seven days, Big Ten teams had some noteworthy performances of both the good and bad variety. In all, three teams came away with championships in the tournaments they played in. Illinois won the Las Vegas Invitational, Maryland took first in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic, and Wisconsin won the stacked Battle 4 Atlantis field. While it was impossible to watch absolutely everything, especially with the whole pesky, “hang out with relatives on Thanksgiving” getting in the way of hoop watching, here’s a brief recap of what went down during the last seven days.

Bronson Koenig keyed a second half rally as Wisconsin came back to beat Georgetown in the Battle 4 Atlantis. (Reuters)

• Wisconsin Shows Off Depth That Matters: Many times when announcers or others cite depth when discussing a certain team, it simply means that the coach plays a lot of players. A team with true depth has players coming off the bench that can win a game for them. This is exactly what happened in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis, as Bronson Koenig and Duje Dukan combined to score 18 of the team’s 33 points in the second stanza, with the Badgers holding off a pesky Georgetown team in the process. With Frank Kaminsky struggling and Traveon Jackson and Josh Gasser in foul trouble, they just found a way to win with other guys doing the heavy lifting. Things were back to normal in the championship game, as Kaminsky and Jackson led the way. This team has so many weapons, and is off to a 7-0 start that is making preseason projections look really solid right now.

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1. Maryland lost Dez Wells to a fractured wrist in their win over Iowa State last week, leaving a major void in their starting lineup. The Terps struggled without Wells in their five-point victory over Monmouth, but were able to put a solid performance together on Sunday in a 95-77 victory over VMI. Graduate transfer Richaud Pack dropped 22 points and while junior Jake Layman and freshmen Dion Wiley and Melo Trimble picked up 19. The thing Maryland will miss the most from Wells is his leadership on the court – at one point in time, Maryland played a lineup entirely made up of players in their first year as Terrapins. Maryland’s youth will be tested soon as they’ve got a date with No. 8 Virginia on Wednesday, and the Cavaliers are a veteran-laden crew with their top five players being juniors or seniors.
2. Michigan State fell to Kansas in the Orlando Classic title game on Sunday and their depth was tested as the Spartans ran into foul trouble very early on in the matchup. Head coach Tom Izzo was forced to insert a current walk-on and a former walk-on into his lineup, allowing Kansas’ Cliff Alexander to feast on the inexperienced Spartans in the post. Michigan State played 4 games in 6 days and Branden Dawson played with flu-like symptoms throughout the week, and the Spartan’s turn around quickly as they face Notre Dame on Wednesday.
3. Illinois had a great Thanksgiving week, capping it off with a win over Baylor in the championship game of the Las Vegas Invitational on Saturday. Rayvonte Rice earned tournament MVP honors while Malcolm Hill and Nnanna Egwu joined Rice on the all-tournament team. The win over the Bears was huge for the confidence of Hill, who has made tremendous strides since his freshman season. Illinois faces stiffer competition this week in the form of No. 17 Miami (FL) and No. 12 Villanova.
4. Indiana’s defense is a major concern for Tom Crean as the Hoosiers prepare for a tough December schedule that puts them against Pittsburgh, Louisville, Butler, and Georgetown. Indiana gave up 98 total points in the paint versus Eastern Washington and Lamar – not exactly college basketball powerhouses. Those types of interior issues should make their opponents mouths water, especially after Indiana struggled with UNC-Greensboro on Friday. The Hoosiers ranked 150th in Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rating (98.6), and that number has to improve quickly before they start playing the big boys.
5. Purdue closed its appearance at the Maui Invitational with a two-point victory over BYU by the hands of J. Hammons, who connected on a game-winning hook shot in overtime. The Boilermakers are 5-1 and are set to face undefeated N.C. State on Tuesday. Nathan Baird highlighted five early season trends that have led to Purdue’s successful start – including the Boilermaker’s impressive use of length and freshman Vince Edwards stellar play.

After three convincing wins against three low-major teams and the impressive debut of freshman Vince Edwards, Purdue entered the Maui Invitational ready to test themselves against their major-conference peers and see if they’re as significantly improved from last season as they have appeared thus far. So what did they find out? They’re definitely better than last year but their season-long trajectory is still yet to be determined. Purdue finished Maui in fifth place with a 2-1 showing. The Boilermakers have proven they can beat teams likely not making the NCAA Tournament (Missouri) or likely to be on the bubble (BYU); but they missed their opportunity to get a resume win or two when they dropped their tournament-opener to Kansas State. But most importantly, they learned they’re a talented group that will need more consistency from their starters and less costly turnovers in order to really make some waves in conference play.

Rapheal Davis helped lead Purdue to a 2-1 record and 5th place finish in Maui.

Against Kansas State, the Boilermakers effectively lost the game in the first half when they committed 11 turnovers that led to 17 Wildcats points, and subsequently a 15-point halftime deficit. In their second game against Mizzou, Purdue remedied their first half woes by coming out strong and playing physical defense right from tipoff, which led to the Tigers being unable to make a field goal until six minutes into the game. In the final game against BYU, the Boilermakers found themselves in a back-and-forth nail biter that went into overtime, which could have been lost due to a Rapheal Davis turnover, but instead was won on A.J. Hammons hook shot. The last few sequences of the BYU game seems representative of Purdue’s Maui performance: moments of intense frustration from turnovers, that is overcome by the innate talent within this group.

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1. Frank Kaminsky has emerged as the early clubhouse leader in CollegeBasketballTalk’s player of the year rankings. The Wisconsin senior has showed off a much more complete game this season, as he is leading the Badgers in field goal percentage, points, rebounds, steals and blocks. He’s also at or near the top of all of of these categories in the Big Ten so far as well. We’ll find out more about whether these numbers are sustainable starting today when the Badgers start to play some better competition in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament this week.
2. Michigan State has looked impressive since their loss to Duke in the Champions Classic, and a big part of that has been their ball movement on offense. On Monday night in their win against Santa Clara, the team notched 22 assists on 29 field goals The ring leader passing the ball was Travis Trice, who had a team-high eight to bring his average to an even 7.0 per game on the season. After setting a program record with 637 helpers last season, they once again have an unselfish team this year with great passers like Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Lourawls Nairn Jr. Without boatloads of NBA-caliber talent at their disposal. having players with high basketball IQ’s on offense will help this team overachieve.
3. After starting the season averaging 100.3 points per game in their 3-0 start, Illinois struggled on that end of the floor- at least in the first half- in their win Monday night over Brown. The Illini were actually down 35-31 at the halftime break, but went on to shoot a scorching 73.1 percent from the field in scoring 58 points in the second half. Aaron Cosby lead the way with 18 points, and actually pulled off a rare feat by netting seven points in two possessions. Cosby is the team’s leader in threes thus far, as he and fellow transfer Ahmad Starks have been the catalysts for a team that plays much differently on the offensive end as they did last year.
4. Purdue is off to a 4-1 start, and one of early takeaways from their early play has been just how much of a physical presence 7’2″ freshman center Isaac Haas has been. Haas had a huge impact against Kansas State in a losing effort, scoring 19 points and drawing countless fouls on the Kansas State big men. His sheer size made defending him without fouling almost impossible. Haas followed up Monday’s effort with six points and eight rebounds Tuesday as Purdue soundly defeated Missouri.
5. Rutgers lost to an 0-4 St. Peter’s team by 18 at home Tuesday night. For those B1G fans who are not that familiar with the program other than last year’s 12-21 record and that they were picked unanimously to finish last in the conference in the preseason, this won’t register much on the shock and awe scale. For some that are more invested in the program, it is another crushing new low point. SBNation’s Dave White has had enough, saying nights like these continue to happen because of continuous failings of the administration in their commitment, or lack there of, to the basketball program. If this team loses to a team without their best player in their own building that hadn’t won a game yet, things could very get pretty dicey once Big Ten play starts.

News broke early Tuesday morning that Minnesota will be without one of their guards during their two-game stretch, and possibly for much longer than that. Sophomore Daquien McNeil has been suspended indefinitely as he is being investigated in a domestic violence case. The guard from Baltimore is averaging 3.3 points and 2.5 assists in 18.8 minutes per game so far this season. Gopher athletic director Norwood Teague said: “We are currently gathering information and cooperating with the authorities. This athletics department values respect and positively impacting the lives of others and will not tolerate any form of domestic assault from its staff or student-athletes.”

Daquien McNeil has been suspended indefinitely by Minnesota. (AP)

This will test the back court depth of Minnesota, leaving more playing time for freshman Nate Mason. Having the combination of Mason and McNeil off the bench allowed the Gophers to incorporate their pressure defense a little more in the early games than they had last season. The team has good overall depth, but this will put a strain on Deandre Mathieu and Andre Hollins. They will now likely have to play more minutes and will have to avoid getting into any foul problems. With this being an indefinite suspension, and in light of how justifiably serious anything involving domestic violence is after the Ray Rice situation in the NFL, it could be expected that the Gophers will be without McNeil’s services for quite a while.

Four games up and four games down for the Illini. Yes, we know it is early but it is really tough not to wonder if this is the best backcourt John Groce has had during his time in Champaign. He was hired from Ohio after a surprising run to the Sweet 16 when the Bobcats’ offense, led by D.J.Cooper, burst through the first two rounds in March by running a high-powered offense with multiple ball-handlers and shooters. Groce’s first two seasons have been sub-part at Illinois but his track record shows that his offensive system can raise havoc, given the right type of talent. That talent includes ball-handling skills from at least three positions on the floor. After three straight games of scoring 100 games, albeit against weaker competition, the Illini offense looks very promising because of five combo guards who can be dangerous with the rock. The rotation includes Ahmad Starks, Aaron Cosby, Rayvonte Rice, Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn. Five of them have been playing at least 20 minutes game and they provide Groce with multiple options.

John Groce has five wings that should be fun to watch this season.

Both incoming transfers, Starks and Cosby, shot at least 40% from beyond the arc in their prior lives away from Champaign. Shooting skill doesn’t hurt but it is their ball-handling ability that’s more impressive. Tracy Abrams’ loss for the season could have hurt the Illini because he had a good understanding of the offense after two seasons but Starks and Cosby aren’t too far behind. Let’s not forget that they sat out a whole season after the transfer to Illini and practiced with the team, waiting and chomping at an opportunity to showcase their skills in front of the Orange Krush. Remember last season when Rice was terrific during the first 10 games because he was fully prepared after training with the team? Same goes for Starks and Cosby. Speaking of Rice, he doesn’t have to worry about carrying the offense this season because he is surrounded by shooters. Instead, he can play the wing position and take advantage of backdoor cuts and fast-break opportunities. He was a volume scorer last season which hurt his rhythm during key stretches of the conference season – that doesn’t need to happen this year because Groce can save him for crunch time.

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Michigan State’s narrow victory against Navy in its season opener raised a few serious concerns for Spartans fans, not the least of which was the team’s frontcourt play outside of Branden Dawson. Not only did forwards Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling combine for just 10 points in that win, but the Midshipmen found surprising offensive success near the basket, unearthing countless easy looks on their way to 56 percent shooting inside the arc. After showing some positive flashes in a loss to Duke, however, and playing markedly better against Loyola (Chicago) in its home opener, the Michigan State big men seem to be taking incremental steps in the right direction. On Monday night, in a 79-52 victory over Santa Clara – an evening in which Dawson was sidelined with the flu – those small steps turned into even bigger strides, as Schilling, Costello and Dawson-fill-in Marvin Clark Jr. demonstrated a level of assertiveness and production that was largely missing 10 days ago. With the Spartans’ most crucial week of non-conference play looming just ahead, it’s a sign of improvement that may have come in the nick of time.

Michigan State’s Gavin Schilling had a big night against Santa Clara on Monday. (Photo: Mike Carter, Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports)

Tom Izzo mentioned the 6’9’’ Schilling as a possible breakout player before the season began, and he fully looked the part – in terms of production, aggression and physique. After playing somewhat tentatively against Navy, Schilling was at times dominant against the smaller Broncos, scoring 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting and securing 11 rebounds in just 18 minutes on the court – his first career double-double. “He’s so strong and athletic… he’s got a nice jump-hook, he can use both hands,” Izzo said of the big man afterwards. Interestingly, Schilling’s outing was statistically similar to Costello’s night against Loyola, wherein the junior scored a career-high 13 points and notched 11 boards. While he didn’t near that scoring production against Santa Clara, tallying just two points, Costello did log nine rebounds and a pair of blocks, at times demonstrating the same ball-commanding assertiveness he did against the Ramblers (and subsequently earning three trips to the free throw line). More importantly, both he and Schilling were defensive enforcers in the paint, helping limit Santa Clara to a 32 percent two-point shooting mark that would have been even lower if not for a few late buckets. Likewise, the pair combined for 13 of the team’s 21 offensive rebounds, keeping possessions alive and enabling Michigan State to put the game away early. “Costello and Schilling have been bright spots,” Izzo put simply after the game.

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It’s not as though Nebraska was going to waltz through the season undefeated or anything. The Cornhuskers cracked the preseason Top 25 because of the finishing run they went on last season and because they brought back pretty much every significant player in the rotation other than Ray Gallegos. That said, Saturday’s overtime loss to an unranked Rhode Island team exhibited several potential trouble spots for the Cornhuskers if they don’t immediately fix some things. We outline three of those problem areas below.

Walter Pitchford is off to a slow start this season for Nebraska. (AP)

• Walter Pitchford is Struggling: The former Florida forward emerged as a quality deep shooting big man last season, hitting 41.0 percent on nearly 50 makes from three. He’s off to a 1-of-11 start from behind the arc this season. One of the most difficult things to do if you’re a good shooter whose shots are not falling is to find other ways to contribute. It’s clear that he’s struggling in other facets of his game, but Pitchford could work through his slump by becoming a better presence on the boards and staying out of foul trouble. Right now the offense is pretty much limited to the Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields show, but last year’s team really took off when the secondary options improved. Rhode Island outrebounded Nebraska by 16, and Pitchford’s lack of activity inside is a big part of the reason why. Read the rest of this entry »

Seven Big Ten teams will be competing in tournaments during Feast Week. Some are expected to do well, while others are looking to pick up some quality wins and defy preseason expectations. Here’s a primer for those hoops-obsessed fans who want to schedule some Big Ten basketball watching around their annoying relatives. The fun gets started later today in Maui, New York and Kansas City.

Progressive Legends Classic: (Monday and Tuesday)

Caris LeVert needs to continue to fill up the stat sheet if Michigan wants to win the Legends Classic. (Getty)

• Teams: Michigan, Oregon, VCU, Villanova
• Favorite: Villanova
• TV: ESPN2, ESPN3, ESPNU
• Outlook: Michigan will face its first big-name opponents of the season when the Wolverines take on Oregon in the first game. Should they win, they’ll face off against the winner of the VCU-Villanova game after that. The perimeter trio of Derrick Walton Jr., Zak Irvin and Caris LeVert will have to continue to score at a high level, as the trio is producing a robust 67.5 percent of Michigan’s points thus far this season.
• Predicted Finish: First if they play Villanova; second if they play VCU.

CBE Hall of Fame Classic: (Monday and Tuesday)

• Teams: Maryland, Arizona State, Iowa State, Alabama
• Favorite: Iowa State
• TV: ESPNU, ESPN2

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