As the non-conference portion of the 2013-14 college basketball season nears its conclusion and conference play looms large in the New Year, the ACC has seen its share of ups and downs along an uneven early stretch. While some of its teams (Duke, Syracuse) appear to be capable of the preseason hype bestowed upon them, others have been a mixture of confounding (North Carolina), shockingly underwhelming (Boston College, Maryland) and utterly but pleasantly surprising (Florida State). The conference some were talking about being the greatest college basketball had ever witnessed hasn’t shown the depth and consistency in non-conference play to justify that acoolade, but there is still a long way to go as this new-look league embarks into ACC play. Here’s a look back at the RTC preseason ACC rankings as voted upon by the writers and how those teams have performed thus far and look to perform as the season progresses.

1. Duke Blue Devils (11-2)

Coach K and Duke look like the favorite heading into conference play. (AP)

• Signature wins: #22 Michigan, UCLA
• Signature losses: #5 Kansas,  #4 Arizona
• Reasons for optimism: Quinn Cook has shown he is the multi-threat point guard the team had hoped he would become, adding some serious offensive game to his role as facilitator. Jabari Parker is in the running for early NPOY honors and has done nothing to dampen his enormous expectations. Rodney Hood has stepped in and become an instant multi-purpose threat as a transfer, and Rasheed Sulaimon now appears to be ingratiating himself with Coach K again, making this a very talented offensive team with many versatile weapons.
• Reasons for pessimism: The team has looked lost defensively on the perimeter at times. While still very competitive, they lost to both of the best teams they played in the non-conference slate, displaying an inability to get key stops down the stretch. Parker’s need to control the offensive flow has come to the detriment of Sulaimon’s development. Will that change now that Sulaimon seems to be earning more minutes? There’s still no prominent big man (sorry, Marshall Plumlee), and the three-point shooters are not as scary as in years past.
• Forecast: This team has got plenty of talent, and Parker is a dominant go-to guy who can single-handedly rescue this team from an off night. Duke still lives and dies largely from the perimeter, though. They have won titles without significant impact in the paint before, but they have also flamed out of the NCAA Tournament early because of the same deficiency. Parker is too good and has enough complementary threats in Hood, Cook, and possibly Sulaimon to rely on for this team to underwhelm late in the season. This is a squad with Final Four credibility.

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When the year began, the Virginia Cavaliers made it a point to avoid the types of missteps that derailed their season a year ago and relegated them to an NIT bid. There were three main areas the team had to lock down: a solid showing in the non-conference schedule; more offensive production from the point guard position; and avoiding a late-season collapse in ACC play. Conference play is now on the horizon, and the Cavaliers will have to look themselves in the mirror knowing they failed miserably at the first area of emphasis, have more questions than answers about the second, and will absolutely have to reverse the trend of the third to make an NCAA Tournament run. Nothing is as head coach Tony Bennett expected for his team roughly a third of the way into the 2013-14 season.

It’s been a rough start to a promising year for Joe Harris and UVA (credit: grantland.com)

Virginia had two match-ups against ranked foes prior to conference play. They suffered a heartbreaking loss to VCU at home in November and then bowed out of a horrifically low-scoring affair against Wisconsin in December, again at home. A bad loss to Wisconsin Green-Bay, Bennett’s alma mater, followed, putting the Cavs in a precarious position with only a game at Tennessee left as a possible noteworthy non-conference victory. That evaporated early and often Monday night, as Virginia was overwhelmed by the Volunteers from start to finish in a crushing 35-point loss. The demoralizing score and performance would be devastating enough if it weren’t also serving as a microcosm of their entire season.

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Boston College has had a resoundingly disappointing season, to say the least. Coming into the year with elevated expectations based on their youth and potent inside-out combination of Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson, the Eagles have not even held a .500 record yet. Their defense is porous, ranking an astonishingly bad 298th in the nation out of 351 Division I basketball teams. They also haven’t shot the ball well from deep, yet have persisted in making it a staple of their offense. A top-40 schedule with games against UConn, Providence, UMass, USC, Maryland, Toledo and VCU have all resulted in losses. At some point this team needs to win a few marquee games in order to thrive in a top-heavy ACC, and although they won’t lack for those opportunities, it seems like the rest of the season will be spent in hopes of securing a non-NCAA postseason bid and building for the future.

Olivier Hanlan is shouldering a large burden this season. (Boston Globe)

Boston College fans had good reason to believe in this squad coming into this season, as the Eagles returned all of their major players including the ACC ROY Hanlan, versatile big man Anderson, and guard Joe Rahon. The team finished the 2012-13 season relatively strong, winning four out of its last five games with an extremely young team that lacked depth and ACC experience. Much was made out of the momentous leap expected from Hanlan, the seemingly unstoppable Canadian guard who dropped an ACC freshman record 41 points in the first round of last year’s ACC Tournament.

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1. Tallahassee Democrat: Boris Bojanovsky is a totally new player this season (so is Michael Ojo for that matter, but that’s for another story). After playing basketball in Spain, the athleticism and speed of the game required the 7’3″ center to ratchet up his intensity. This year, those adjustments are paying off big. Currently Bojanovsky is shooting almost 75 percent from the floor and leads the Seminoles in blocked shots. He still needs to work on remaining on the court, though, as he and Ojo tend to draw more whistles than they commit fouls.
2. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Pretty sure Virginia has now entered the danger zone. The Cavaliers gave up 87 points at Tennessee (where NC State won last week) and lost by 35 in a pitiful performance. If Jon Pence’s numbers are right, Tennessee finished the game with an offensive efficiency of 142.6, which is Virginia’s second-worst defensive showing in the Tony Bennett era (the first coming in 2010 against Washington). To put that number in context, it would be Boston College’s worst-game defensive efficiency of the season. Somewhat troubling is that this is the second poor defensive performance by the Cavaliers in as many games. Rust coming out of the break may have played a factor — and Tennessee making everything it shot, including a half-court buzzer-beater to end the first half certainly contributed — but this performance is inexcusable for a good defensive team.
3. Backing the Pack: NC State owned double-figure leads in the second half of its last five games, but all those leads were cut to at least five and the Wolfpack lost the game to Missouri. The trend is concerning, but it also makes some sense with a young team. Even more important factors are an inexperienced primary point guard, streaky shooting, and an over-reliance on TJ Warren’s offense. The experience part will change over time, but Mark Gottfried needs to keep working on his team’s execution with leads, as conference teams will look a lot more like Missouri than Detroit. On the bright side, the transitive property says NC State will beat Virginia by 42 at a neutral site.
4. Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon may be “starting over” now that Seth Allen is back in the lineup, but he’s got a lot of work to do before the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee joins him. Also, North Carolina Central isn’t a team to overlook (just ask NC State), but it could be a deal-breaker come March. That said, Turgeon’s coachspeak is exactly what the Terrapins need right now, with one primary exception. They need to remember they’re 1-0 in road conference games. That’s big. So is avoiding the inaugural ACC Tournament Wednesday slate of games.
5. Inside Carolina: That sound was everyone in Chapel Hill collectively exhaling. Roy Williams quieted some of the retirement rumors recently spurred by Jason King’s Bleacher Report article on his radio show by noting that “I’ve wanted to go six to 10 more years” despite his wife wanting him to quit a decade ago. The x-factor is obviously his health, but it’s clear he wants to keep coaching while he still can. He also talked about Joel James’ return, which Williams expects to happen in the second or third conference game, depending on his continued progress.

T.J. Warren is having a tremendous sophomore season, leading North Carolina State and the ACC in scoring with an average of 23.9 PPG, while also leading his team in rebounding (7.8 RPG) and minutes played (34.5 MPG). But he is going to need more help from his teammates if NC State wants to be a serious contender in the ACC and return to the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive season. Saturday’s loss at home to #25 Missouri was a good example of this fact.

T.J. Warren Needs More Support From His Wolfpack Teammates.
(AP/Karl B DeBlaker)

With just over 12 minutes to go in the game, Warren drilled a three-pointer from the left corner – his only made three in seven attempts for the game. At that point, the sophomore star had already notched 24 points and 11 rebounds, and the Pack held a five-point lead. From that moment on, Warren went scoreless on three field goal attempts and managed only two more rebounds for a 24/13 night. He wasn’t totally invisible for the remainder, as he did record a block and assisted on two huge three-point baskets by Ralston Turner. But his lack of production down the stretch was a big reason that N.C. State couldn’t hold off the Tigers, who trailed by 10 points with just under nine minutes left. Missouri suddenly got hot from the outside, making five of their last six three point tries after only hitting two of their first 12 from behind the arc. But without their star involved in the offense, the Pack just couldn’t match that burst from Missouri and its star guards, Jordan Clarkson and Jabari Brown, who led the Tigers in scoring with 21 and 17 points, respectively.

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1. CBS Sports: Terrific piece from Gregg Doyel on late Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser, leading up to the annual Xavier – Wake Forest game that is played in his honor. Doyel does a good job covering Prosser’s work off the court, but what will always stick with me is how fun his teams were on the court. They never played any real defense, but that only made them more exciting. Hopefully one day that roaring motorcycle won’t ring hollow off all the empty seats in the Joel because that’s the only tribute to Prosser that would feel fitting.
2. Yahoo! Sports: If not for Jabari Parker, Tyler Ennis would be a lock for ACC Freshman of the Year. Ennis is in the top 15 of the national assist to turnover ratio statistic at 4.7 as well as steal percentage. On top of that, Ennis has shown he can step up and score when needed, dropping more than 20 points in games against Cal, St. John’s and Villanova. The key for ACC teams looking to unseat the Orange will be finding a way to disrupt what is currently the nation’s most efficient offense.
3. The Diamondback: Seth Allen is back for Maryland and played an amazing 21 minutes in the Terrapins’ win over a pesky Tulsa team. Allen didn’t light up the assist charts, but he did dish three while only recording a single turnover. Allen’s return should help Mark Turgeon with some depth at point guard and take a little of the pressure off Roddy Peters’ shoulders. That said, Maryland will be at its best as Peters comes into his own; he’s a much better distributor than Allen or anyone else on the team. But it’s nice to have a more experienced player to help in certain situations.
4. Bleacher Report: This Jason King article about Roy Williams made the rounds a lot over the holidays. Both Williams’ son and wife are actively pushing for him to retire. It’s also clear that this season has been tougher than usual on the head coach. However, the most interesting part of the article for me was the further emphasis on Williams’ disconnect with the North Carolina athletic administration. Great work by King catching up with former mentor Buddy Baldwin and friend Ted Seagroves to mine this information.
5. Burlington Times-News: NC State lost a brutal game at home against Missouri over the weekend. The Wolfpack were up big at the half before letting the Tigers back in the game over the course of the second half. At the end of the day, Mark Gottfried’s team lost out on a chance to get a nice win against a Top 25 team. For more detailed (read: GIF-filled) information on this one, check out the Weather Moose’s recap.

EXTRA: Hendersonville Lightening does a good job rounding up some anecdotes about Dean Smith.

EXTRA EXTRA: The ACC planned to challenge the SEC’s football dominance. What went wrong?

Back in late November we wrote about Duke’s historically bad defense. At the time, the Blue Devils were coming off their worst defensive effort of the last 12 years, having given up 90 points on 1.38 points per possession in their home squeaker against Vermont. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski was extremely upset and vowed that great improvement must be made on the defensive end of the floor. Five games later, it’s now a good time to see how much progress Duke’s defense has made in the intervening month of action.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski Was Pleased With Duke’s Defense In Their Win Over UCLA
(Photo: Mark Dolejs – USA TODAY Sports)

Let’s take a more detailed look at the team’s defensive numbers from the first six Duke games through that dreadful Vermont performance on November 24. Then we will compare those statistics to what the Blue Devils have done in their last five games heading into the Christmas break. Here are the key defensive statistics from the first six games:

• 1.07 – Opponents’ Avg Points Per Possession for All Games
• 1.08 – Opponents’ Points Per Possession vs. Duke

By applying Ken Pomeroy’s principle of adjusting for competition, we come up with an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 1.05 PPP for Duke’s first six games. That number would currently put Duke’s defense at around #200 in the nation in Pomeroy’s ratings – lousy defense indeed. Now that’s look at the same metric for Duke’s last five games:

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Last week’s big news with respect to North Carolina was the announcement that the school would not seek reinstatement for P.J. Hairston this year. Perhaps flying under the radar in terms of other personnel news was that starting center Joel James would be out for 10 to 14 days after an MCL sprain suffered against Texas. This opened the door for Brice Johnson, who was named the interim starter, to firmly grab hold of the center position. His results in the two games since James’ injury show why head coach Roy Williams has been hesitant to give the sophomore heavy minutes, and also why this team may miss an overlooked member of the starting lineup in James.

Brice Johnson’ has provided some highlights, but is squandering his chance at grabbing the starting center spot (credit: AP)

Johnson’s first audition in the starting role came against Davidson last Saturday, a game in which the Tar Heels struggled mightily before Marcus Paige rescued them in overtime. Johnson’s stat line was brutal, with only two points on 1-of-3 shooting, a pair of turnovers and an eventual disqualification due to fouls. This Davidson team was scrappy and shot extremely well from outside, but the Wildcats also utilized a shocking ability to get into the paint and either score or dish with little regard for UNC’s big men.

That trend continued on Friday night, when the Tar Heels were outscored in the paint by a Northern Kentucky team whose tallest player is 6’6”. A performance like that boils down to effort and proper defensive positioning, and this is an area with which Johnson continues to struggle. A lean player already, he enjoys most of his success on the defensive end with blocks coming from the weak side. When players actively back him into the basket, he struggles with reaching and committing fouls. While he was able to go 4-of-8 from the field, he was 0-of-2 in the second half and only grabbed four rebounds in 20 minutes of action. James and Kennedy Meeks surely would have contributed better rebounding tallies in similar stints on the floor (in fact, Meeks registered six boards against NKU in only 13 minutes on the floor).

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Let’s have some fun with a traditional office activity going into the Christmas Holiday. We’ll pretend each of this season’s ACC teams are in the drawing hat, and give our best advice to anyone picking out gifts for each, based on current needs. So here goes the list for each ACC team in alphabetical order.

• Boston College (4-8) – Probably the easiest team to shop for because they need so much. In fact anything defensively would be much appreciated. There isn’t one thing that the Eagles do well on the defensive end of the court, as proven by their current rank of #340 out of 351 teams in raw defensive efficiency. So they won’t be picky – they could use somebody to force turnovers, someone to grab a defensive rebound, or anyone who can make somebody on the other team miss a shot more than just occasionally.
• Clemson (8-3) – The Tigers are all set on the defensive end but could use some help on offense. While better shooters are the obvious gift, a more meaningful option may be to find a way to get Clemson to the free throw line more often. They are wasting their 77 percent foul shooting average by ranking only #285 in the nation in free throw rate. Read the rest of this entry »

After missing the NCAA Tournament in 2012-13, this season Florida State has the look of the Seminole squads that made four straight trips to the Big Dance in the previous four seasons. That means a return to the kind of defense that Leonard Hamilton‘s prior teams have been known for. This was confirmed in Saturday’s 60-55 win over previously unbeaten and #22 ranked Massachusetts in the Orange Bowl Classic. The Minutemen were held well under their season scoring average of 84 coming into the game and the win improved Florida State’s record to 8-3.

Leonard Hamilton Has Florida State Playing Great Defense Again

A look at the numbers confirms the fact that this Florida State team is performing almost identically to those during the four-year stretch (2008-09 through 2011-12) that made the NCAA Tournament. The statistics also reveal just how different the Seminoles were in 2012-13 and why that team ended the NCAA Tournament streak with a subpar 18-16 record.

This year’s FSU team is currently ranked #27 in Ken Pomeroy’s overall rankings, which is right in line with their NCAA Period average final ranking of 29.5 and much better than last season’s #121. The improvement is entirely on the defensive end of the court. Last year, Florida State’s #82 finish in Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency was actually better than their NCAA Period average of #126. But after a Pomeroy average of #6 in defensive efficiency during their NCAA Period, the Seminoles dropped all the way down to #190 last season. This year’s team has brought that back to where Hamilton is used to seeing it, currently at #7 in the nation.

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