ACC Morning Five: 11.23.11 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 23rd, 2011

  1. SBNation DC: Gary Williams was back on the radio waves yesterday. This time he was defending his recruiting, even if his quotes only confirm his critics’ arguments. Williams pointed out that Maryland had plenty of players play in the NBA, which really trivializes the player development that was the hallmark of his successful teams.

    The toughest thing was always when you’d call a kid the first day of his senior year and he already narrowed his schools down to the five schools he wanted to visit. They basically say, ‘Where have you been? Why haven’t you already called?’

    As the sport has become more televised, recruiting has moved earlier and earlier. It’s unfortunate you have to start recruiting kids when they’re freshmen in high school, but that’s part of the process. Williams was also notorious for not wanting to deal with AAU coaches at all.

  2. ESPN: Almost on cue (ahem), Austin Rivers and Seth Curry are starting to show signs of clicking in Duke’s backcourt. Early games caused critics to question the duo, especially Rivers, and their effectiveness together. But a strong game against Michigan has gotten conversations changing a little. Duke hasn’t been dominant so far this season, but the Blue Devils keep winning against very solid talent. They’ll get another test against Thomas Robinson and Kansas in tonight’s Maui Invitational championship game.
  3. Stadium Journey: Martin Rickman (of Blogger So Dear) reviewed Wake Forest‘s Lawrence Joel Coliseum. Hopefully the team’s solid start will bring life back to the Joel, which was at one time one of the toughest places to play in the ACC. This site is a pretty cool idea and has reviews of many of college basketball and college football’s best stadiums. My one complaint is the reviews seem to have a very tight range (at least the overall reviews seem to rarely drop below three out of five stars and rarely go above four).
  4. The Sporting News: Dorenzo Hudson is ready to dance. Despite Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen’s departures from Blacksburg, Hudson is convinced this is the Hokies’ year (for the record, I think Virginia Tech was a lock for the NCAA Tournament had Hudson not been injured last year). I totally forgot that he averaged over 15 points a game two years ago. Hudson is the real deal, but he’s going to need help — possibly from Erick Green and Dorian Finney-Smith — to lead the Hokies to their first NCAA Tournament since 2007.
  5. ESPN and Winston Salem Journal: Ever heard someone complain that there’s too much coverage of North Carolina on ESPN? Well, I wouldn’t expect that to change as the Worldwide Leader promoted a Tar Heel to replace George Bodenheimer as the multi-billion dollar corporation’s president. John Skipper graduated from North Carolina with a degree in English Literature, Class of 1978.
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ACC Game On: 11.22.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on November 22nd, 2011

ACC Game On will periodically review recent games involving ACC teams and take a look forward to key upcoming matchups.

It’s going to be a long season for Boston College. I thought that maybe the dismal performance against Holy Cross could be explained away by the absence of Patrick Heckmann, but I was wrong. Massachusetts has the makings of a very talented team, but make no mistake: Boston College is bad. There is no reason to be surprised, but there is also no reason to expect Boston College will not improve. The Eagles with a few exceptions are a team of freshmen. The difference between a freshman in November and a freshman in March can be huge, especially in terms of shooting. Just ask Harrison Barnes. This team shouldn’t go winless this year even though it might feel like it today.

North Carolina State, on the other hand looked excellent in a spectacular comeback against Texas. Richard Howell was neutralized by foul trouble but C.J. Leslie and a healthy Scott Wood came off the bench to deliver a much-needed scoring punch from the Wolfpack. Being able to win on a neutral court with your best big sitting on the bench seems like a pretty good omen  for a team with a challenging schedule over the next month.

Even Without Ryan Harrow, C.J. Leslie And Lorenzo Brown Have Started To Deliver On The Promise They Showed As Freshmen

Duke coasted to the finish after being challenged early on by a persistent Tennessee team that was ultimately simply over-matched. One thing to note early this season is the tight Blue Devils rotation. While Miles Plumlee came off the bench for some effective minutes and Tyler Thornton has been offering his customary amount of foul-happy pressure defense, the starters are seeing the bulk of the minutes so far. This line-up is far from solidified, but the reliance on the starters is something to keep an eye on.

Virginia beat Drake rather unimpressively and Jontel Evans was the least impressive of them all. He played 33 minutes and managed to log a stat line of one point, one assist, one steal, three turnovers, and three fouls. If he doesn’t improve, Virginia might need to shake up its starting line up.

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Is the Criticism of Austin Rivers Founded?

Posted by mpatton on November 22nd, 2011

Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook broke down Austin Rivers‘ decision-making yesterday in an article for ESPN’s Grantland. He shows the discrepancy between Rivers’ college game and his high school game, as well as meticulously breaking down a couple of fairly frequent mistakes Rivers has made early on in the season. Pruiti is actually quite complimentary of Rivers, especially his ability to get to the foul line. And Pruiti asserts that Rivers can live up to the hype if the Duke freshman continues to adjust to the college game. Others have not been so optimistic. CBSSports.com’s Matt Norlander thinks that mentally “he’s not buying in to K’s system yet,” which “could push/pull all [year].” Norlander isn’t alone. During Duke‘s game against Tennessee my Twitter timeline was filled with people ripping Rivers for being overrated, immature and even an outright bust. Some were Duke fans. Some were journalists. Some were neither.

Duke Guard Comparison

Per Game Stats of Two Duke Freshman Guards (from Statsheet)

For comparison, take a look at these offensive stats from two Duke combo guards who came in as consensus top-three recruits in the table above. The right column is Austin Rivers through his first five games (the Tennessee game). The stats are eerily similar in scoring in everything down to field goal percentages. Looking closer Rivers even has a slight advantage in most of the shooting statistics, and a very large advantage in free throw rate. Rivers biggest deficiency is in assists, where the compared guard doubles his output. Everything else is very close.

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ACC Morning Five: 11.22.11 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 22nd, 2011

The agony and the ecstasy. Not sure there’s a better quip to define the ACC’s night in the eyes of two fanbases. Boston College was absolutely dismantled — at home — by a team picked to finish twelfth in the A-10. The Eagles lost by 36 to Massachusetts. NC State, on the other hand, found itself looking at a tough spot down 18 with eight minutes left in the second half against a talented Texas team. The Wolfpack went on a 28-2 run to take the lead before earning the victory.

  1. ESPN – Grantland: Sebastian Pruiti breaks down Austin Rivers‘ flaws with meticulous detail. And while it’s true the freshman has struggled early, I think this article is a bit of an overreaction. Pruiti readily admits that Rivers has all the tools, he just isn’t consistently making the best decisions. This is to be expected. The college game is much quicker, taller and stronger than anything Rivers has ever played before. It’s still very interesting to look, via screen grabs, at Rivers’ tough transition to the college game, and I love that we’ve got NBA writers now covering college sports. For an example of the types of plays that define Duke’s offense (especially on set plays), check out this gem from The Mikan Drill.
  2. Washington Post – Opinion: In wake of major fiscal issues, Maryland has decided to cut eight varsity sports. Unfortunately, these teams all have incredibly high graduation rates and really represent what the NCAA is supposed to be about. Charles Lane takes a pretty hard stance, but I think his ire is well-grounded (even if I disagree). There’s still a chance the teams could be saved if enough money is raised to cover their costs.
  3. SportsMemo.com: I mentioned the Boston College smackdown earlier, but SportsMemo.com points out a very interesting side note. Boston College opened as a 2.5 point favorite over the Minutemen, but so much money jumped on the Minutemen that the line was pushed to 4.5 points the other way by game time. Six points (and changing the winner) is a lot of ground to cover, and it should tell you that the betting public and sharps have very little faith in Steve Donahue’s Eagles.
  4. SI Vault: Curious where the Maui invitational got its start? Look no further than a mammoth upset of top-ranked Virginia by host Chaminade in 1982. “From now on, wherever athletes must face an impossible task, the cry will go out, ‘Remember Chaminade!’ Virginia will.” That’s not totally true, but it’s a mind-blowing upset. Since the invitational’s inception Chaminade has pulled off six more upsets, although none quite as astonishing and far-reaching as the victory over Ralph Sampson’s team three decades ago.
  5. Fox Sports Carolinas: Andrew Jones looks at the top coaches in NCAA basketball history. He narrows it down to Bobby Knight, John Wooden, Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski. Shockingly, that’s the order from fourth to first of his final rankings. I agree that Knight falls a cut below the other three. But I don’t agree with leaving Adolph Rupp off the list or placing John Wooden third because of Sam Gilbert’s slush fund and improper benefits. It’s tough to put a man with more than twice the national championships as anyone else at third; Wooden actually has more titles than the rest of Jones’ list combined.

EXTRA: Check out Seth Davis’ Hoop Thoughts to learn what tips he’s got for NBA fans trying out college basketball during the lockout. Also you should get pumped that more NBA writers will be using their brains to look at college basketball. ESPN stat guru John Hollinger is already at it with a look at at a modified version of his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and a breakdown of what the numbers mean in the long run.

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ACC Game On: 11.21.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on November 21st, 2011

ACC Game On will periodically review recent games involving ACC teams and take a look forward to key upcoming matchups.

This weekend, the top of the conference rolled while the bottom of the conference struggled and we got a clearer picture of the abilities and limitations of a number of the teams in the ACC. Thursday morning, every team in the conference was undefeated, but by Sunday night, half of the conference had already dropped games. For the most part, this divide clarifies the current haves and have-nots. North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, and Miami all held steady, handily winning their games. Joining the undefeated teams are Virginia Tech, who has an extended hiatus until taking on Syracuse, and somewhat surprisingly, Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have so far had an admittedly easy schedule, but making it through an easy schedule without an upset is something that has challenged Wake’s ACC brethren.

On Friday, Boston College lost to Holy Cross in what wasn’t even really an upset, but is certainly disappointing nonetheless for Eagles fans. Playing without Patrick Heckmann (tweaked ankle), the leading scorer against New Hampshire, BC’s offense faltered while the defense remained as porous as ever. Holy Cross shot over 50% from the field and from beyond the arc. As it stands, Boston College looks like it will have serious trouble stopping any team from scoring.

Florida State Looked Great This Weekend, While Boston College Looked Terrible

Maryland played twice this weekend, winning the game they should have won, against Colorado, but losing to an Iona team that had already come pretty close to upsetting Purdue. For the Terrapins, turnovers look to be a real problem going forward. Against Iona, Maryland committed twenty-six miscues compared to Iona’s ten. Combine the poor offensive execution with allowing the Gael’s to shoot 55.2% from the field and it’s a recipe for disaster.

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ACC Morning Five: 11.21.11 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 21st, 2011

Well…when it rains, it pours. And good lord did it pour following the ACC’s perfect 26-0 start. The conference has since gone 8-8 with absolutely hideous losses from Boston College (getting beaten by Holy Cross might be OK, but by 22?), Clemson (at College of Charleston would be one thing; at Littlejohn is another), and supposed-upstart Virginia (TCU is an acceptable loss… in football).

  1. ACCSports.com: Mike Krzyzewski sounded a little like Dean Smith when he talked about win number 903 and retirement. Although he acknowledged the record was a big deal, Coach K deflected much of the credit to his former players. He also doesn’t have a set goal for wins or seasons as he looks to retirement. Rather, to quote him, “my thing probably will not be as planned. I’ll know. I’ll just know.” This seems the general sentiment for hypercompetitive coaches. Gary Williams obviously just knew after last season. Smith just knew in 1997.
  2. TarHeelBlue.com: Roy Williams has filled out his coaching staff with a couple of former players in Bobby Frasor and Jackie Manuel. Technically they aren’t coaches. Frasor is the assistant video coordinator and Manuel is the strength and conditioning coordinator. Coincidentally, both alumni-turned-employees played for Williams’ championship teams in 2005 and 2009.
  3. Baltimore Sun – Tracking the Terps: You can criticize Mark Turgeon for many things, but not about his candidness. After a blowout loss to Iona (an experienced team which many will likely predict to upset someone in the Big Dance), Turgeon said: “This is the biggest challenge I’ve ever had in coaching. It’s not even close. To me, the kids have got to care more. I’ve taken over programs before that were picked low in their league, but the kids did what they were supposed to do.” Turgeon’s attack feels risky to me. He has a young team that’s also shorthanded. Terrell Stoglin only took up point guard duties just last week because of Pe’Shon Howard’s injury. At the same time, lack of effort needs to be nipped in the bud immediately. As Turgeon is showing, it’s a delicate balance one has to walk as a high-major college basketball coach.
  4. Charlotte Observer: In the wake of Ryan Harrow’s transfer, Lorenzo Brown has really stepped up for NC State. Against Princeton he dropped 16 points and dished eight dimes — including one for the game-winning shot to Deshawn Painter. On the game-winning play the Charlotte Observer‘s JP Giglio said, “it was the kind of assertive play N.C. State has been missing from the point guard position for the better part of 20 years.” I’m not sure I’d go that far, but Brown has game and will be the X-factor for a young, talented Wolfpack team.
  5. Lexington Herald-Leader: Jerry Tipton set out to answer the question, “since the John Wooden-led UCLA dynasty ended in 1975, which program sets the standard for excellence?” Unsurprisingly Seth Davis, Robyn Norwood and Blair Kerkhoff all chose either Duke or North Carolina at the top spot. Jay Bilas hinted at an elite tier of programs that included eight teams. I’d tend to agree, although Kentucky should be very close behind.
EXTRA: In non-basketball related news, Miami has officially withdrawn itself from bowl contention this year to help placate the NCAA Committee of Infractions currently investigating the mammoth Nevin Shapiro scandal. The postseason ban is the second bout of self-enforcement. You’ll recall that the first was the suspension of several football players, and DeQuan Jones from the basketball team.
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ACC Game On: 11.18.11 Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on November 18th, 2011

ACC Game On will periodically review recent games involving ACC teams and take a look forward to key upcoming matchups.

The streak is over. The Atlantic Coast Conference’s short reign as the only undefeated conference in college basketball came to an end last night as both Georgia Tech and Maryland fell in the opening round of their respective tournaments. Against Saint Joseph’s and Alabama, neither team could figure out ways to score, particularly from long range. Georgia Tech and Maryland went a combined 3-24 from behind the arc.

While Georgia Tech was able to successfully go inside to manufacture some offense, the Yellow Jackets’ inability to stymie Saint Joseph’s perimeter attack (the Hawks shot over 50% on three-pointers) compounded with GT’s own terrible three-point shooting added up to a  thirteen-point loss. Where Georgia Tech was able to at least have some success on offense, Alabama completely shut down Maryland. In addition to going 2-12 on threes, the team shot 26.5% from the field. On a Maryland team whose strength is supposed to be guard play, Alabama held the Terrapins’ starting trio of Sean Moseley, Terrell Stoglin, and Nick Faust to 2-23 combined shooting. That’s right, Maryland’s starting guard rotation shot 8.6% from the field. While it would be nice to give all credit to the sensational Alabama defense that didn’t allow a single Maryland player to score in the double figures, the truth is that it wasn’t all Alabama. Maryland played poorly and looked lost on offense. If Maryland is going to win more than a handful of games this year, the backcourt is simply going to have to play better.

Shaka Smart's VCU Rams Will Take On The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Charleston

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The Pre-Conference Tournaments and the ACC

Posted by KCarpenter on November 18th, 2011

While technically speaking the pre-conference tournaments started long before yesterday, counting the opening rounds of the NIT and a few others with qualifiers, but Thursday was the day that the tournaments began in earnest. I thought it would be a useful exercise to go through the list of all 12 ACC teams and evaluate their individual chances of winning their respective tournaments.

Boston College – 76 Classic

The Boston College team picked to finish last in the ACC would have a tough time in just about any competitive tournament field. An opening game against St. Louis will be challenging enough, as SLU is one of the better teams in a very strong Atlantic 10 this year. If they pass St. Louis, they will probably have to play Villanova, a tough out for an ultra-young BC team. The rest of the field includes New Mexico and Santa Clara, both capable of pushing Boston College to the breaking point. There’s not a good chance that the Eagles win this tournament, but they could at least win the opener.

Clemson – Diamond Head Classic

Xavier is the easy favorite for this tournament, but fortunately for Clemson, they are positioned on the other side of the bracket along with the (by-December) battle-hardened Long Beach State. The Beach is gunning for upsets and Xavier will have to take care to win its opening matchup against Casper Ware and company. Clemson’s path to the finals is significantly easier. The Tigers’ side of the bracket features rebuilding Kansas State, inexperienced UTEP, and a Southern Illinois team that isn’t what it once was. Clemson should make the finals, but taking down XU will be a challenge.

Duke – Maui Invitational

Duke Has Never Lost In Maui (12-0)

The Maui Invitational is loaded, but I’d say that Duke has a good shot at a heavyweight bout with Kansas, and a fair shot at winning considering the troubles the Jayhawks had against Kentucky. Duke will have to beat either a talented Michigan or Memphis team after beating Tennessee (which the Blue Devils should). Michigan and Memphis are both teams with a lot of potential that hasn’t necessarily translated to wins yet and both are trying to make the leap this year. Beating Duke is a great way to make such a statement. On the other side of the bracket, Kansas just has to beat Georgetown to have a clear shot at the final considering the troubles that have plagued Ben Howland’s UCLA team. Beating Kansas, even in a down year is a tall order, but in a head-to-head match-up, I think Duke is certainly good enough to win.

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ACC Morning Five: 11.18.11 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 18th, 2011

Well, the streak is dead after Maryland decided to shoot less than 20% from the floor (OK, Alabama’s slightly-better-than-decent defense had something to do with it too), and Georgia Tech turned around and lost by double figures to St. Joseph’s in the Charleston Classic. Stephen Schramm of the Fayetteville Observer posted a nice recap of the 26-game winning streak if you want to reminisce. The run was great while it lasted. No worries though, the ACC (or at least North Carolina) is still atop of Luke Winn’s Power Rankings!

  1. ESPN Radio (via Washington Post): Maryland alum Scott Van Pelt sat down with Gary Williams to talk about his relationship and rivalry with Mike Krzyzewski. Williams has fond, competitive memories of playing Coach K’s Duke teams in the early 2000s when both schools were at the top of college basketball. Williams brings up a couple of gut-wrenching losses (including this one). The most interesting piece of the interview might have been the lede of one of Van Pelt’s questions when he mentioned that Williams will be an analyst for the Big Ten Network.
  2. New England Cable News: If you believe his dad, Doc Rivers, Austin Rivers isn’t focused on his future so much as the present. According to the Boston Celtics head coach, Rivers isn’t worried about being one-and-done or the NBA lockout; “He’s more concerned about winning.” Doc Rivers’ interview makes it sound like his son is doing his best to fit into Duke’s system, which should be great news for Blue Devil fans (many of whom were concerned Rivers would try and fit the system to him). Rivers has been mercurial through the first three games, averaging a very inefficient 12.7 PPG.
  3. New York Times: Another potential sexual abuse scandal may headed for college sports, as ESPN reported earlier today that Syracuse police are investigating Bobby Davis’ claims that associate head coach Bernie Fine molested him “hundreds of times” when he was a ball boy for the Orange (starting in the seventh grade). Coming on the heels of the Penn State disaster, Syracuse acted immediately. Fine has been placed on administrative leave while the investigation proceeds. One difference between this and the Jerry Sandusky scandal is that this is a newly opened investigation by the police, not grand jury report. Jim Boeheim has already made some waves by coming to the defense of his longtime assistant coach.
  4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Mark Gottfried isn’t the only new ACC coach making waves on the recruiting trail. Brian Gregory is quietly putting together a top-15 class headlined by five-star forward Robert Carter. He also still has two scholarships to give (or save for next season when he only has two available). My guess is he’ll use at least one on a point guard in the spring. In their loss last night, the Yellow Jackets only managed four assists to ten turnovers, and only had two players make more than two field goals. Not counting Mfon Udofia and Kammeon Holsey, Georgia Tech starters went a smooth 4-25 from the field.
  5. Orlando Sentinel: It’s safe to say that Bernard James wasn’t impressed with the Seminoles’ defensive effort Wednesday night. His teammates don’t sound impressed either with lots of talk of “lessons” and “growing” from the win. As Leonard Hamilton pointed out, Stetson plays the type of ball that Florida State is most vulnerable to (it runs the dribble drive with lots of shooters). There are more talented teams with similar systems, but I agree with the players that the game should serve as a learning experience (and as a bonus, they did get the win). But these kind of games definitely make you wonder how the Seminoles will fare in conference play.

EXTRA: Apparently the NCAA has its finances online for the world to see (originally Deadspin thought the documents were leaked). If you’ve ever been curious how the NCAA uses the hundreds of millions of dollars generated by college basketball, these documents are worth perusing. It’s an interesting public relations move for the organization to release these documents without publicizing it. But in the wake of all of the recent criticism about NCAA greed, I think releasing the documents was the right choice.

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Basketball Prospectus Looks at Recruiting Royalty on Tobacco Road

Posted by mpatton on November 17th, 2011

Duke, Kentucky and North Carolina rule recruiting. That might seem like an obvious statement, but Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus took the time to quantify the programs’ relative recruiting dominance and look at the specific breakdown of where the value for the schools’ classes is. The results are fascinating, and in some respects mind-blowing.

Over the past ten years, the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, and Wildcats have combined to sign 91 top 100 recruits (nearly 10 percent of every top 100 prospect available) and 28 top 10 players (nearly 30 percent). They’ve put forth all of the top six classes since 2002 and 13 of the best 19.

Don’t forget in the last ten years two of those programs have had coaching changes (Roy Williams took over for Matt Doherty in 2003; Kentucky was coached by Tubby Smith, Billy Gillispie and John Calipari over the last decade). People also criticized Mike Krzyzewski for “slipping” when he failed to land John Wall and Greg Monroe in 2008.

Harrison Barnes is a Rare Top Overall Recruit for North Carolina

However, the more nuanced numbers are even more interesting. Cannon broke down the top recruits into five ranges: 1-3, 4-10, 11-25, 26-50 and 51-100. North Carolina fills its rosters mostly with the 4-10 range while Duke utilizes the top range and a broader range of around 12-40. Cannon’s research points to potential flaws in both schools’ systems. Duke, whether actively or passively, avoids the second half of the “one-and-done” players even though many of those players end up staying around. The Tar Heels aren’t as reliant on the true top players (although Harrison Barnes certainly shows some success in the area).

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