The Seminoles had a tough weekend, taking a pair of losses to Harvard and Connecticut. With their already marginal status in the polls, Florida State looks poised to slip from the public consciousness, which is a shame, because despite their offensive deficiencies, the defense is as nasty as ever and close losses at neutral sites against talented teams is hardly a severe indictment. Still, polls tend to punish losses regardless of context, Leonard Hamilton‘s crew is just going to have to play the same way they have played for the past two years: outside the limelight. The Seminoles are used to it, but nonetheless, it’s a shame, because the team has strung together a series of ridiculous defensive stands.

Bernard James Leads A Truly Impressive Florida State Defense

There are two things that this team does ridiculously well: force missed jumpers and get their hands on the ball. On the season, FSU has held opponents to 22.8% from beyond the arc, blocked nearly 20% of opponents shots, and stolen the ball on nearly 15% of opponent’s possessions. Over one third of opponent’s offensive possessions ends with a block or  a steal. That’s staggering. Connecticut’s starting back court of Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb turned the ball over ten times against this defense. In the three games prior to the Connecticut game, the Seminoles held Harvard, Massachusetts, and South Alabama to a combined seven of sixty-six from beyond the arc. That’s 10.6% from three over the a three=game span. Is there any other team in the country capable of that kind of lock-down? The defense is just nasty.

Of course, the offense is nasty as well, but in the traditional sense. If missed shots and turnovers are the hallmarks of Florida State’s defense, I’d have to also characterize those two elements as the hallmarks of Florida State’s offense. Any game that the Seminoles play in is going to be ugly if you like sweet-shooting guard play or effortless offense. Nothing comes easy against the Florida State defense, and the team’s collective ability to frustrate opponents is one of the most compelling sights in college basketball.  Florida State is out of the spotlight for now, but you should make an effort to keep track of them anyway. A defense this good will always be a factor come March.

1. Charlotte Observer: The biggest news around the conference was definitely North Carolina‘s loss to UNLV in Las Vegas. We each weighed in on the upset both immediately after the game and then a few hours later focusing on the formula for beating the Tar Heels and the flaws exposed in the loss. Andrew Carter at the Charlotte Observer provides a slightly different perspective focusing on potential lessons learned from the loss. After the game Roy Williams addressed his use of timeouts: “I’m not going to call timeouts. […] This is what it is. We’ve got to be tough enough to ask the players (to persevere).” One thing is clear: there were a lot of lessons to be learned from the loss. Now the hard part is applying them. Also, The Sporting News reported Barnes left the game with crutches, but Robbie Pickeral said that is no longer the case.
2. Tallahassee Democrat: Missed free throws are killer. Especially for Florida State against Connecticut. The Seminoles were poised to knock off the defending national champions, but Okaro White missed a free throw with 12 seconds left that would have made it a two possession game. To make matters worse, Luke Louks missed the two tying free throws in overtime. Leonard Hamilton’s squad may leave the Bahamas with two straight losses, but this team is still very talented.
3. Charlotte Observer: Three wins in three days taught Duke a lot about itself. The Blue Devils may not have won pretty, but they were tough. They learned that they could lock down a preseason All-American even if only for the last few minutes. They learned that they could win without Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. Now comes the toughest test yet: Ohio State on the road.
4. CBSSports.com: Future ACC member Syracuse fired Bernie Fine after further evidence and more allegations surfaced this weekend. Now Gregg Doyel wants to hold Jim Boeheim to task for his earlier statements about the incident. Doyel has no problem with supporting a friend, but thought the long-time Syracuse coach went too far when he said, “The Penn State thing came out, and the kid behind this is trying to get money.” I agree that the statement was incredibly brash. I don’t know whether Boeheim should be fired as he did rescind his comment, but this story is not going anywhere soon.
5. Winston-Salem Journal: North Carolina has potential lessons to learn after its loss, but Wake Forest showed its learned something very important this off-season. The Demon Deacons learned how to rebound from a tough loss. Last year it felt like Wake Forest got pummeled night in and night out with each loss feeding the team’s collective attitude. This year CJ Harris and Travis McKie bounced back from a beatdown against Arizona State to beat Texas Tech for seventh place at the Old Spice Classic. Wake Forest is bound to sustain some pretty brutal losses this year so bouncing back will be critical.

EXTRA: One part of the Division I recruiting that has come under fire–and rightfully so–the last few years is the National Letter of Intent (NLI), which binds an athlete to his school for all four years (despite his scholarship being annually renewable). Kevin Scarbinsky of The Birmingham News looks at the NLI and its fairness for athletes.

North Carolina‘s loss Saturday exposed several flaws in the team and in people’s perception of the team. When Ken Pomeroy ranked the Tar Heels fourth in the country, many national analysts scoffed. But don’t forget: the Tar Heels were not dominant last year. They got beat handily by a Duke team (without Kyrie Irving) in the ACC Tournament Finals after squeaking by Miami by two points and Clemson in overtime. Yes, they added PJ Hairston and James Michael McAdoo. But the unsinkable aura many gave this team coming into the season was a little overboard.

It is also important to look at the game and the details surrounding it to understand the loss. First and foremost, UNLV was a little underrated even though the Rebels were getting votes in the AP and Coaches’ polls before knocking off North Carolina. Second, the game was at a “neutral” site: yes, it wasn’t at the Thomas & Mack Center, but most of the crowd wore scarlet (I’d estimate the crowd was around 65-70% for UNLV). Third, the game comes right before North Carolina’s two toughest non-conference games of the season against Wisconsin and at Kentucky. That’s not to say Roy Williams or his team consciously overlooked UNLV, but the game happened in a “tournament” (less than 24 hours after their game with South Carolina) and right before they face two very good opponents.

Where Was Tyler Zeller Against UNLV?

Before looking at what went wrong in the game, it is important to look at what North Carolina did well. Most notably, PJ Hairston played incredibly. In only 13 minutes Hairston scored a team-high (tied with Harrison Barnes) 15 points on six shots. He has had a very productive season so far and has really excelled in his role off the bench. People asked going into this season who the knockdown shooter would be for North Carolina, and Hairston has answered the call although I think he is a year away from being a true go-to guy like Wayne Ellington. In a similar vein Reggie Bullock was terrific, going 4-5 from the field despite a couple of turnovers. He also played great defense for stretches. If Williams can get this much productivity out of these two, he will have to think about starting one of them over Dexter Strickland at some point. It should also be mentioned that the Tar Heels went on a run in the first half with Kendall Marshall on the bench. Marshall played well on the offensive end, especially in the first half when he knocked down a big three to put North Carolina up five.

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There is a formula for an upset, and it is as old as the three-point line: make your shots from beyond the arc, slow the pace, and play physical, punishing defense. UNLV did two of the three, opting to keep the pace up, but their execution was perfect. Since last season, the flaws of this North Carolina team have been no secret: John Henson and Tyler Zeller get frustrated by strong physical defense, Kendall Marshall is a mediocre on-ball defender, and the UNC defensive system that relies heavily on rotations and recovery is susceptible to three-point shots from the weak-side, particularly after collapsing against a drive. If you are experiencing an odd sense of déjà vu, it is because this is almost exactly the blueprint that Kentucky exploited to beat the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight. It worked then, it worked last night, and there is a good chance that it will work in the future.

Marshall's On-Ball Defense Will Remain A Liability in North Carolina's Defensive Scheme

Specifically the near future. Against Wisconsin on Tuesday, North Carolina will be dealing with one of the nation’s stingiest interior defenses, coupled with elite three-point shooting, and a punishingly controlled tempo. Kentucky’s surplus of talent becomes more apparent each and every game and the Wildcats ability to play tough, muscular defense as well as athletic guard play seems designed to give the Tar Heels fits. North Carolina was going to go into both of these games regardless as the underdog, regardless of who won in Vegas or what the polls said. Both of these match-ups are tough, and weirdly, by losing on Saturday, North Carolina should be able to go into these two games with appropriately readjusted expectations.

This can be a very good thing. The 2005 team’s season-opening loss to Santa Clara had the eventual national champions on the defensive, playing catch-up all year against an Illinois team that nearly went undefeated in the regular season. The 2007 Elite Eight team lost to Gonzaga in November. Last year’s squad lost to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Illinois, and Texas in a span of a month yet finished the season playing in the Elite Eight while all of these other teams were sitting at home. Roy Williams-coached squads, for a variety of reasons, often lose in the fall. Last night’s loss, or even a series of three straight losses by this time  last week might feel terrible for North Carolina, but it won’t be as meaningful as pundits might say (excepting a series of blowouts). Teams grow and change between November and March, and a loss or three won’t cripple the psyche of this young team. Losses don’t hurt forever especially in November games.

1. Tomahawk Nation: The ACC is suddenly looking very shaky outside of the Triangle after the Seminoles played one of the ugliest games in recent memory and were upset by the Harvard Crimson at the Battle 4 Atlantis. To be clear, Harvard is a very good, experienced team that many predict to be dance-crashers come March. But that’s no excuse for the offensive ineptitude that took place, especially in the first half. The Seminoles didn’t score for the first eleven minutes (at all). The half ended with a score of 14-14 (tied for the lowest scoring half of the shot clock era). The second half was only marginally better with the Seminoles only scoring two points in the first seven minutes. As per usual, Florida State‘s defense was terrific; but the offense was anemic. The silver lining is the Seminoles get a shot at the defending national champions in the third-place game.
2. Green Bay Press Gazette: For Tony Bennett, it’s like father, like son. Bennett’s coaching style is very similar to his father’s grind-it-out, defense-first days at Wisconsin (where his system has been slightly modified by current coach Bo Ryan). Virginia is starting a series against Bennett’s alma mater, Wisconsin-Green Bay this year. Bennett has several reasons for playing his former team, including wanting “to show his appreciation for those who have supported him and his family going back to the late 1980s, when he moved town from Stevens Point.” Many media members are on the Bennett bandwagon, picking his Cavaliers to finish fourth in the ACC.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: Kendall Marshall hasn’t just gotten the love from national analysts for his playmaking abilities, he’s gotten it from his teammates too. He’s got a ludicrous 51 assists (and only eight turnovers) in the Tar Heels’ last four games. Roy Williams mentioned Marshall’s defensive questions and outside shooting woes “as if he didn’t want the success going to Marshall’s head.” The bottom line is Marshall has been terrific through the first few games of the season. It will be quite the match-up at point guard against Wisconsin in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, as Jordan Taylor is probably the best point guard in the country.
4. SBNation: SBNation breaks down Duke‘s NBA prospects starting with Austin Rivers and Mason Plumlee, who are both potential lottery picks. Rivers’ best-case comparison, according to Jonathan Tjarks, is Monta Ellis. I see the comparison (tallish, scoring combo guards), though I think Rivers may end up a better defender by the time he leaves Duke. Plumlee’s best case is Amir Johnson. Interestingly, Tjarks lists Seth Curry ahead of Ryan Kelly.
5. Bleacher Report: I never link Bleacher Report here, but this inanity needs to be pointed out. The article is why Roy Williams is better than Mike Krzyzewski. The logic behind the thesis tells it all:
   

   Raw Data: In the eight years since joining the Tar Heels as their head coach, Williams has won two championships, appeared in three Final Fours and won five ACC seasonal championships.

   Projection: Through eight years, Williams is on pace to win eight national championships, appear in 12 Final Fours and win 20 ACC seasonal championships by his 32nd year.

   Well then… by that logic, Bill Guthridge might be the best coach in North Carolina history (he had two Final Fours in three total years of coaching). Team-oriented blogs generally show significantly more impartiality. I also don’t agree that the original assumption that the best two coaches in college basketball are Williams and Krzyzewski (Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo, Rick Pitino and Bill Self deserve to be in that conversation as well). Don’t get me wrong: Roy Williams is a great coach. He’s got a chance to win a third national title in the last seven years. But his resume is on a different tier than Coach K’s for the time being.

EXTRA: The Bernie Fine case at Syracuse just got more interesting. The US Secret Service has now joined the investigation of the Syracuse assistant coach. The Secret Service’s involvement probably means there’s a new side of the investigation, as it wouldn’t be involved in a federal child molestation case.

Let me know if you have any questions…

1. Grantland: Shane Ryan’s post about Duke‘s developing guard play is very interesting to read knowing the result of the Maui championship game against Kansas. Ryan breaks down Duke’s evisceration of Michigan’s zone with screenshots (a trend that I am really starting to enjoy). Ryan looks at the blend of talent and Duke’s system, though he ignores the possibility of Tyler Thornton coming off the bench and hitting the biggest threes of his life… But in all seriousness, it’s amazing how much Mason Plumlee’s play in that game got written off by a prayer (and the Seth Curry travel before it). The story went from Mason Plumlee locking down Thomas Robinson the last eight minutes while sinking clutch free throws for Duke to a desperation heave, but that’s a different post for a different time.
2. BC Interruption: The Eagles’ SBNation blog takes a look at the best player on a  young, bad Boston College team. His name is Patrick Heckmann. Possibly because he played at high-level competition in Germany, Heckmann seems like the most consistently aggressive player on the Eagles. Heckmann also has the advantage of size and solid athleticism. Heckmann is far from a finished product, but he’s definitely a little light in what could be a very long season on the hardwood in Chestnut Hill.
3. Washington Times: Maryland‘s beatdown at the hands of the Iona Gaels pointed out a lot of flaws. Mark Turgeon is blaming himself for the inconsistency from his players. The bottom line is the Terrapins have a long way to go. Sean Mosley has picked up where he left off two years ago, but the rest of the team is struggling. But Turgeon clearly isn’t used to losing:
   

   It’s hard to be good. Right now, we’re taking the easy way out. We don’t run the defense because that’s hard. We don’t box out because that’s hard. We don’t execute our plays against pressure because that’s hard.

4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Doug Roberson checks in with coaches from around the state of Georgia, including Georgia Tech‘s Brian Gregory, to talk about who inspired them as children. Gregory’s inspiration came from an old high school counselor, who told Gregory, “If you work hard and are a good person then usually things work out pretty well.” It’s definitely interesting to see where coaches, whose job requires inspiring student athletes every day, derived their inspirations.
5. Raleigh News & Observer: Michael McAdoo‘s lawsuit against North Carolina and the NCAA was dropped this week, but the process is far from over. McAdoo’s lawyer is planning on filing an appeal next week. McAdoo was ruled permanently ineligible after the NCAA’s investigation of North Carolina’s infractions under Butch Davis because of academic fraud. McAdoo was signed by the Baltimore Ravens after being drafted in the NFL’s supplemental draft. The lawsuit is one of many against the NCAA currently that could mean major changes for the organization in the near future.

Unfortunately shoddy wireless means I can’t get a screenshot, but the elation at the end of the Maui championship game between Duke and Kansas came through the TV. Even Coach K was jumping up and down after Tyler Thornton hit the biggest shot of his life. Twice. Austin Rivers was as active as any of the Duke players on the bench (save Marshall Plumlee, whose level of enthusiasm is insane). It’s clear Duke isn’t a dominant team by any meaning of the word, but it’s a really fun team to watch. And the Blue Devils, as always, know how to win.

1. Washington Post – Cavaliers Journal: Virginia is a defensive team this year. Or at least it is without senior Sammy Zeglinski, whose playing time is currently limited by a nagging ankle injury. And Tony Bennett sounds OK with that. He pointed out that the team is “a possession by possession team,” which probably explains why the Cavaliers savor each possession so much (there are only four slower teams in D-I). One has to expect the Cavaliers’ outside shooting will come around eventually, but until then they’ll have to continue relying on their defense.
2. Indy Week: Since 1945 only two coaches, Press Maravich and Les Robinson, were older than Mark Gottfried (who’s only 47) when they took the head coaching job at NC State. The article also provides a nice introduction to the individual roles, many of which have changed since Gottfried arrived, of each major contributor on the team. The final line is still the biggest question that remains:
   

   While Wolfpack partisans still loudly applaud Gottfried’s name during pregame introductions, all honeymoons come to an end. Ultimately, the question is whether Gottfried is the next big thing… or just next.

3. ESPN: Florida State takes to the Bahamas this week for the Battle 4 Atlantis where the Seminoles will start out with UMass, an undefeated team that just throttled Boston College on the road. To be fair, the Minutemen were picked twelfth in the A-10 before the season started. Should Florida State win that game, it will probably face mid-major upstart Harvard in the second round and defending national champion Connecticut in the championship game. This is a pretty good primer for the tournament, which has plenty of interesting storylines and will be Florida State’s first true test this season.
4. Duke Basketball Report: One of the biggest questions facing Duke is who will run the point. Duke Basketball Report has a fairly exhaustive article looking at the history of the point guard position and its use in both Roy Williams’ and Mike Krzyzewski’s offenses. Essentially, the conclusion is that Duke’s backcourt needs to share the responsibilities of a point guard, rather than putting everything on one player. I think the article under-appreciates Quinn Cook’s point guard abilities; then again, I don’t think Cook will be the main option at point until at least conference play and, more likely, next season.
5. iSportsWeb: North Carolina 2013 commit Isiah Hicks is already struggling with eligibility issues. It sounds like there are some missing records from his old school district. If the records are just missing from his previous school district. But if there are red flags at the high school level, there will definitely be red flags at the collegiate level. [In more upbeat North Carolina news, the Tar Heels are slashing prices on tickets to men’s games against Evansville and Nicholls State by 40% for Black Friday.]

EXTRA: Per The Daily Telegraph, several gentleman’s club owners have gotten together in hopes of taking advantage of the NBA lockout and starting a topless basketball league. So far there are 23 teams including ones in Minnesota (may I suggest the Minnesota Bimbowolves for a team name?), Miami and New York. I’ll be sticking with college basketball, but the title of this article was too good to let go unnoticed.

ACC Game On will periodically review recent games involving ACC teams and take a look forward to key upcoming matchups.

Identities are finally coming into focus. Duke and North Carolina each had breakthrough epiphany moments, while Clemson was upset for the second time in a row. Miami also managed to win against Florida Gulf Coast in a performance that I would classify as “okay,” though that’s about all I can say about a game where the ten-point winner shot 32.1% from the field. Back to more intriguing topics.

Duke looked really good against a Michigan team that had just pounded a talented Memphis team the day before. A clever defensive plan (basically smaller guys aggressively fronting) kept Tim Hardaway, Jr., from impacting the game until near the end of the second half. Meanwhile, Austin Rivers, despite putting up impressive scoring numbers in past contests, finally put on a thorough demonstration of the skill he brings to the table, scoring aggressively, efficiently, and with more than a little panache. This performance augurs well for Duke’s future, especially considering how well the team was playing before Rivers’ breakout. For efficiency fans, I’d like to direct you to Ryan Kelly, who scored 17 points on six shots, and Seth Curry who scored 17 points on seven shots. That’s some ridiculously efficient scoring.

Rivers Quieted Some of His Detractors Yesterday

Five time zones away, North Carolina, took a step toward becoming the juggernaut that people whispered about in the offseason. Reggie Bullock led all scorers with 23 points in a performance where he made six out of seven three-pointers and contributed four rebounds, two assists, and a steal in a measly eighteen minutes of play.  He didn’t foul or turn the ball over. It was a sterling performance off the bench and one that promises good things for a Tar Heel team that had struggled to reliably hit three-pointers. Of course, Bullock took a back seat to the other command performance of the game: Kendall Marshall‘s 15-assist night. In the first four games of this season, Marshall has had more 15-assist games than any other Tar Heel in history. On nights like these, when Marshall is in passing-Nirvana, the Carolina offense seems fluid and unstoppable: everyone is open. UNC played so well, that John Henson‘s double-double with six assists and four blocks is the third story of this game.

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In an interview on sports radio this week, Gary Williams got a little indignant about the charge that he wasn’t a great recruiter, claiming that when he was the coach at Maryland, his teams had more future NBA players than any Atlantic Coast Conference school aside from Duke and North Carolina. While I think that Williams catches more flak than he deserves for not recruiting well, I also think that his claim probably isn’t true. Every source that I have been able to find has Georgia Tech as a strong third place in the ACC when it comes to NBA players during his tenure (essentially, the 1990s and 2000s). Even if by some miscount, it’s pretty clear that Georgia Tech has had better pros than Maryland during that time. The Terrapins had Joe Smith, Steve Francis, Steve Blake, and Walt Williams, while GT has had Chris Bosh, Stephon Marbury, Kenny Anderson, and Thaddeus Young. At best, Maryland was the fourth best school in the ACC in producing NBA talent during Williams’ tenure, and that’s only if you agree that quality trumps quantity and ignore Wake Forest‘s Tim Duncan, Josh Howard and Chris Paul.

Gary Williams Made Up For His Mediocre Recruiting With Excellent Coaching

Still, I don’t bring this up to condemn Williams for overstating his record, but to bring up a point about recruiting and coaching.  Dan Hanner did an interesting little study that he wrote up for this year’s College Basketball Prospectus where he set out to evaluate how important it is to get great recruits. He looked at recruits from 1999-2011 and put them into different categories based on their recruiting class rank and where they went to college and then looked to see how many minutes they played and what their average offensive efficiency rating was.  At Maryland, unranked recruits played 51.2% of the minutes while recruits ranked 100-10 played the remainder of the minutes. The unranked recruits produced an average offensive efficiency rating of 104.2 while their ranked peers produced at 106.4 mark. Now compare this to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets had unranked recruits use 28.1% of the minutes while recruits ranked from 100-10 used 67.1% (the remaining 4.8% went to top ten recruits). Here is where things get interesting: the unranked players produce at an offensive efficiency rating of 99.1 while the ranked recruits (outside of the top ten) posted a rate of 103.3. While Georgia Tech had top recruits playing more minutes than Maryland, the unranked recruits of Maryland ended up playing better on average than Georgia Tech’s ranked recruits. For Williams, recruiting just didn’t matter as much because he had a knack for making unranked players better than their ranked counterparts at Georgia Tech. That’s the key takeaway here — that the power of a talented coach can overcome recruiting rankings.

So, yes, I think Williams misspoke when he said that Maryland was the third best producer of NBA talent in the ACC during his tenure. I also happen to think that Georgia Tech’s ability to out-recruit Maryland ultimately didn’t matter too much — the Terps are the ones with the 2002 national championship banner hanging in the rafters, not the Yellow Jackets.

Monday night NC State found itself in a tough spot, down 18 points to Texas on a neutral floor. Things looked hopeless. The Wolfpack started the second half with CJ Leslie going 1-2 from the foul line before proceeding to turn the ball over on both ensuing possessions. Meanwhile Texas continued laying waste to the Wolfpack defense, scoring nine points on its first four possessions. After a miniature comeback was stymied by J’Covan Brown and Julien Lewis the lead was back to 18, and Mark Gottfried called a timeout for his Wolfpack with 11:37 remaining in the game.

J'Covan Brown's Untimely Display of Immaturity Let NC State Back into the Game.

Another aspect that deserves mention is the officiating. The officials clearly wanted to rein in the physicality of the first half (which didn’t seem over-the-top at the time), and had been calling the opening of the second half extremely tight. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, most of those fouls went against them. NC State was already in the bonus less than four minutes into the half. In the first four minutes of that half, the officials had called ten fouls (they called 51 fouls for the game). Despite the chippiness, Texas was still in control until  J’Covan Brown was called for his fourth foul with 8:25 left, yelled at the ref, and summarily fouled out on the resultant technical. In less than ten seconds the momentum of the game totally changed.

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