The first post-rivalry week matchup in the ACC starts up with an intriguing bout between two teams that may be headed in different directions. Clemson took an easy victory against Wake Forest on Saturday and Virginia lost big to a North Carolina team that was trying hard to put the Duke loss behind them. Now Virginia goes to Clemson for a game that becomes more interesting the more I look at it.

The Only Game In Town

• Virginia at Clemson at 7:00 PM on ESPNU

Mike Scott Has a Bead on ACC POY

Virginia is nationally ranked, has a winning conference record, and has beaten Clemson once already this season. Clemson hasn’t been ranked all season, has a losing conference record, and lost to Virginia  earlier this season. I would have guessed that Virginia would have a clear edge in this game, but the betting odds have the Cavaliers as a slight underdog coming into this game. Was the Wahoos’ loss to North Carolina so damning that the betting public has simply lost confidence in Virginia? Is there some matchup issue that has newly emerged? What does Vegas know that we don’t? The odds may seem surprising at first, but that’s only because we  are probably underrating the value of home court advantage. Virginia won its first game at home against Clemson, but the score was 65-61. A four-point home win isn’t worth that much. A team that wins at home by single-digits wins the in-conference rematch only about 33.0% of the time. Vegas doesn’t know some big secret about Virginia; it just understands home court advantage. Virginia has played well this season, but they are going to have to stretch to win this game on the road.

1. Duke Magazine: This is a very, very good profile of Mike Krzyzewski by Bridget Booher. She covers his love for gardening, his hiring at Duke, his surgery and his future retirement. The article looks at the challenges Krzyzewski has faced as a coach, and the solutions he and his family came up with to deal with them. How many articles are you going to read with an A Farewell To Arms reference today? I wish the article talked about his Olympic coaching, but this is definitely the must-read article of the day.
2. Fayetteville Observer: Stephen Schramm and Bret Strelow picked their mid-season ACC awards. First, I agree completely that player of the year is a two-man race between Mike Scott and Tyler Zeller. Scott holds the edge because of his relative importance for the Cavaliers, but Zeller is definitely gaining ground. For coach of the year I think Steve Donahue is a legitimate choice despite his team’s struggles. The Eagles are demolishing expectations despite being inexperienced, unathletic and untalented (that’s a little harsh but only by a little). I would give a little more love to Bernard James for defensive player of the year, though I think John Henson and Jontel Evans are strong candidates as well. For most improved, Mason Plumlee and Richard Howell also probably deserve mentions.
3. Mobile Press-Register: Tommy Hicks checked in with Mark Gottfried about his new job at North Carolina State, sandwiched near Duke and North Carolina. Gottfried compared the intensity to a hypothetical situation of Alabama having LSU 20 miles away and Auburn 10 miles away. If he was being historically accurate, I think NC State is more like Auburn (minus the Cam Newton experience).
4. ACC Sports Journal: Rivalry games are funny things. They’re built up and built up, but in the end it’s one win or one loss and takes no longer than any other game. That’s what Duke and North Carolina are trying to deal with right now. Coach K used footage from Duke’s wins over UNLV and Kentucky from the early 1990s (en route to national championships) to try to teach sustained effort. Meanwhile Roy Williams tried to move past the disappointing loss and on to greater tests.
5. Orlando Sentinel: “You get the chicken by hatching the egg, not smashing it.” That’s the adage Mike Bianchi used to describe former Florida State athletic director Dave Hart, who hired and stuck with head coach Leonard Hamilton. It still blows my mind that, even this year, Seminole fans have called for Hamilton’s job. Sure hindsight is always 20/20, but Hamilton has Florida State with its best chance to win an ACC regular season title for the first time ever. That’s pretty good.

Apologies for the late posting. 

1. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Brian Gregory is trying to make Georgia Tech tougher, scrappier. To start he has a list of “non-negotiables,” which grows as the year continues. Gregory started with attending class and turning in assignments. Now he’s added boxing out, closing out and helping on defense. The punishments for failing to do so? Having to execute a box out on the sidelines three times, having to close out the full length of the court in proper form and having to take three charges from teammates. It’s always interesting to get a look, however brief, behind the scenes.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Duke’s win over Maryland looked more dominant than it was. The Blue Devils struggled to keep the heat on all game, but ended on a 13-2 run that obscured just how competitive the game was. One constant was Miles Plumlee, who absolutely destroyed the boards. The eldest Plumlee finished with a Mike Krzyzewski-era record 22 rebounds in the win. After the game he cited Brian Zoubek as inspiration for his play this season.
3. Searching For Billy Edelin: Terrell Stoglin wasn’t happy about the loss to Duke. He was even less happy about riding the pine for parts of the finish. Unfortunately, he displayed that frustration to the world fairly explicitly on Twitter following the game. Stoglin is owning the tweets though. He never said his account was hacked and never deleted them. To me that’s a good sign, but keep an eye on his attitude. He wouldn’t be the first or the last disgruntled player to depart early, but his loss would put the Terrapins back at least a year.
4. Charlotte Observer: Here are four somewhat random thoughts on basketball. The second could be the most important, as we’re already seeing a very down attendance year. Moving the conference tournament to Atlanta won’t help, especially in Georgia Tech’s rebuilding season. Another interesting point is that the NCAA tournament won’t have any sites in North Carolina in 2013.
5. Washington Post: Speaking of down attendance, Mark Giannotto takes a look at Virginia Tech‘s issues specifically. First, the Hokies have struggled a lot since knocking off Duke last season. Second, they raised the prices on the tickets. Combine the two with a middling economy and more games being televised, and that probably covers most of the issue. The question remains whether the problem is–like the athletic department thinks–a one year issue, or a long-term battle.

1. ESPN and Sports Illustrated: I missed two of the better recaps of Duke‘s comeback from last night from Eamonn Brennan and Andy Staples. The two articles are very similar in structure and tone. I still can’t really believe the final result. While people got a little carried away with the “North Carolina is dominating Duke” theme in the second half, it was still very clear the Tar Heels owned that game after the first 18 minutes. It’s also worth noting that Duke shot less free throws (which is to be expected based on the team’s reliance on threes) and missed the same number–just not as many in crunch time. Finally, if you’re interested in a more biased take, Shane Ryan posted a behemoth on Grantland that was a solid (very pro-Duke) read.
2. Greensboro News & Record: Jeff Mills watched Duke and North Carolina from home, alternating from the ESPN and Raycom broadcasts. Formerly, the ESPN broadcast was blacked out (which was brutal because some cable providers didn’t have Raycom’s broadcast in high definition), but the new television contract gets rid of ESPN blackouts until the ACC Tournament. The dual broadcasts was interesting. Dan Bonner and Tim Brando provided a distinct contrast to Dickie V, Jay Bilas, and Dan Shulman. One distinction Mills noted was the audio. ESPN’s equipment blocked most of the white crowd noise, while Raycom highlighted the intense atmosphere. The other big difference was the producing. ESPN focuses on coaches; Raycom on the crowd and players.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: Would you believe me that NC State boasts more McDonald’s All-Americans that Duke and North Carolina combined? At least for now (several recruits are still undecided and considering Duke and/or North Carolina) Mark Gottfried owns the lead in high-profile recruits with Tyler Lewis, Rodney Purvis and TJ Warren all making the cut. That’s going to put some major pressure on Gottfried to contend for the ACC title.
4. Washington Post: Duke may have exposed a way to beat North Carolina. You need to hit lots of threes. Virginia‘s defense shouldn’t be an issue against the Tar Heels (or anyone else for that matter), but the Cavaliers’ offense is often sluggish and inconsistent. But Tony Bennett’s squad has a history of success beyond the arc, as it led the conference in three point percentage last year. While Virginia’s tempo will keep it from putting up 36 threes, look for close to its season-high 25 against North Carolina’s stingy interior defense.
5. Shakin’ the Southland: Free throws are still killing Clemson. It seems like a broken record at this point. Year after year the Tigers struggle from the line. The more interesting part of Clemson’s loss to Maryland is how the Tigers crawled back in the game with a 1-3-1 trap. This is the second game in a row Brad Brownell has changed up the defense with success (albeit success without winning). It will be interesting to see if he continues messing with his defensive scheme going forward.

Man, ACC play is so boring and predictable.  Rivalries without luster, no intrigue. Blegh.  I can barely remember anything that happened last night.

Austin Rivers... For the Win (Getty)

Of course, I’m kidding as Austin Rivers hit the shot to give Duke a miraculous win against North Carolina in the finest rivalry in college sports. Rivers was truly impressive, but it’s hard to know what lesson to take away from Duke’s victory. If I told Roy Williams that his team would shoot better from the field, indeed, shooting nearly 50%, score 20 points from the free throw line, and turn the ball over less than 10 times, he would probably be happy with that. That’s what Carolina did and it simply wasn’t enough. How did Duke win? Well first, the game plan is the perfect illustration of how one should take down North Carolina. Mike Krzyzewski’s game plan leveraged the greatest weakness in North Carolina’s defense: the perimeter. Duke took an astounding 36 three-point shots, making an impressive 14. As an illustration of how insane this is, Wake Forest in their loss against Virginia last night managed to shoot only 41 field goals. Of all the field goals that Duke took, 58.1% of the shots were three-pointers. On the season, no team is averaging over 50% threes. By making them at a 38.9% clip, it didn’t matter how Duke performed on defense or if they could score on the interior. If Duke can maintain this style of leveraged offensive efficiency, they are going to be really hard to stop. Perfectly game-planned. By contrast, North Carolina shot six three-pointers and made one.

The other thing that Duke did really well against North Carolina was get to the free throw line. North Carolina is the best team in the country at not fouling, but with consistent driving, Duke somehow managed to get to the line 26 times. It was an impressive performance, which is one of the other reasons this game is a bit confusing. As good as Duke was at scoring, sheer ineptitude on the glass and indifferent defense almost totally offset all the impressive things that Duke did. Remember it took a weird accidental defensive tip-in from Tyler Zeller for Duke to eke out a one-point victory. As good as a win is this is, would Duke even be considered the favorite for the rematch at home? It was a memorable and miraculous win, but the exceptional, rare nature of miracles makes it hard to draw any conclusions from a maddeningly inconsistent Duke team.

Of course, considering the nature of North Carolina’s bizarre last two minute collapse, the Tar Heels have just as much if not more soul-searching to do.

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1. Florida Today: Well, you can tell this article was written early yesterday (an evening article would probably look the exact opposite of this). Overlooked largely because of Duke’s epic comeback against North Carolina was the Seminoles’ equally epic defeat to Boston College. The same Florida State that knocked off Duke on the road and North Carolina by more than 30 couldn’t handle the lowly Eagles. But the thesis from this article remains: Florida State has a very favorable schedule to take at least a share of the ACC title. It was even better before Leonard Hamilton’s team went and coughed up a free road win in Chestnut Hill. Now the questions are about the Seminoles going forward. Are they the team that lost to Boston College and Clemson, or are they the team that beat Duke and North Carolina? Was this game a product of losing focus, or was it a brutal regression to the mean?
2. Hampton Roads Pilot: Mike Scott continued his under-the-radar quest for ACC Player of the Year with a record-tying 9-9 shooting performance over Wake Forest. Scott finished with 19 points in a rout of the Demon Deacons, and boy was it a rout. Virginia led 40-19 at the half (after shooting a ludicrous 70.8% from the field). That lead only got bigger, moving to 56-23 early in the second half before they coasted.
3. Sports Business Daily: Well, the verdict is in. ACC schools will reportedly be making one to two million dollars more a year than currently after the additions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse to the league. The extra money will push the ACC towards being more competitive with the Pac-12, Big 10 and SEC in that regard. This should at least table the “conference expansion won’t make more money” argument for the time being.
4. Wall Street Journal: Speaking of money, the Wall Street Journal took a look at the richest schools and conferences based on NBA earnings (for players drafted since 1985). North Carolina and Duke top the list, as the only schools whose alumni NBA salaries surpassed the $800 million dollar mark. Surprisingly, Arizona was third on the list. Even more surprisingly Georgia Tech is seventh. I would have guessed Duke and North Carolina on top, but I never would have suspected Georgia Tech cracked the top 10 (ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA).
5. ESPN and Yahoo Sports: Speaking of the Tobacco Road rivals, Austin Rivers hit a pretty big shot last night. The ESPN story is an interview with Doc Rivers, who got to attend the game. It’s worth a watch just to see the pure excitement on the elder Rivers’ face as he jumps up and down hugging his daughter after the shot falls. For a more conventional recap, I suggest Pat Forde’s write-up from the Dean Dome. I’m not sure any story can do the last two and a half minutes justice, but his piece attempts to do so.

Video of the Week:

The North Carolina and Duke home and home series is the greatest rivalry in college basketball. There is no doubt about this. By recent custom, this series is the showdown between the two dominant conference powers. Since the 2003 season when a Josh Howard-led Wake Forest team took home the regular season title, Duke or North Carolina has taken home a piece of it every year since, and most years before that. It’s understandable for people to get lazy and talk about how this is the game between the two conference heavyweights, to claim that this is the series that decides the ACC regular season championship. It’s understandable, but it is lazy. More importantly, this year, it’s simply wrong.

Hamilton's Team: Best in the ACC?

Florida State sits on top of the conference standings and the Seminoles hold the key to their own destiny. They clobbered North Carolina, they beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium, they beat Mike Scott and the Virginia Cavaliers. To walk away with the number one seed in the tournament, Florida State has to simply win out. Sure the Seminoles still have to face Duke and Virginia again, but the second place team in the ACC, North Carolina, has to play both of these teams twice down the stretch. Statistical wizard and game simulator extraordinaire Ken Pomeroy ran down the chances for either team to win the conference outright and found the Tar Heels had a 41% likelihood, while Florida State had a 39% chance. Since these simulations don’t account for a tie situation, which Florida State wins because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, Florida State really could be “legitimately considered the favorite.” North Carolina is by no means out of the race, but right now they are in second place and Duke’s shot at winning the conference regular season title is pretty slim.

North Carolina and Duke transcends simple conference standings. The game is about pride and rivalry more than conference dominance. It does usually mean conference dominance, but ACC fans need to give credit where credit is due: Florida State, to this point in the season, has been the best team in the conference. This game is a great rivalry game but today it is not a battle for conference supremacy. It’s a consolation game for the conference runner-up.

Maryland kicked off a week of excellent ACC matches by eking out a win against struggling Clemson. Terrell Stoglin‘s Superman act remains impressive as he put up 27 points on 11 shots with four steals. Maryland needed every one of those points too, as Clemson took 63 shots while the Terrapins managed only 47.  Winning a game despite such an overwhelming loss in the bottle of possessions is impressive, but I still can’t help but feel that Maryland should be able to beat Clemson without such heroic offensive and defensive efforts.

The Big Game

• Duke at North Carolina at 9:00 PM on ESPN

It's About That Time Again

The Blue Devils come into this game after suffering the wrath of a suprisingly feisty Hurricanes team. Miami isn’t a bad squad, but Duke should have handled the game without any problem. Their offense is as good as ever, but the defense ranks as the ninth-best in the conference. Meanwhile, Duke is inhabiting a special kind of match-up hell. Robbi Pickeral talked about the defensive problem that 6’8″ Harrison Barnes creates at small forward, but a tougher challenge in my mind will be stopping Carolina’s shooting guards. Austin Rivers might claim to be up for a spell against Barnes and Tyler Thornton is at least a partial answer to Kendall Marshall, but who’s going to spend the game trying to stop the athletic Reggie Bullock? If anyone can crack this match-up puzzle, it’s Mike Krzyzewski, who may have to reach deep onto his bench for solutions (free Michael Gbinije?). Regardless, Duke’s ability to make threes will give the Devils a chance against a North Carolina team that still surrenders too many perimeter shots. Make no mistake, Duke comes into this game as the underdog against a confident Tar Heel team that expects to win this game.

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1. Tallahassee Democrat: Ira Schoffel hits a home run with this profile on Leonard Hamilton. It’s lengthy, but totally worth the time it takes to read. It’s really unfortunate that it will be buried by Duke – North Carolina previews today. Schoffel spent time with many of Hamilton’s friends and family from his days in Gastonia, North Carolina. He may not look it, but Hamilton is the second oldest coach behind Mike Krzyzewski in the ACC. The FSU head coach has had a really inspirational journey from Gastonia to Tallahassee. Even above and beyond the high school story, Hamilton’s coaching resume is very impressive too. Before the year I said Bernard James might have the best story in college basketball, but I might have been wrong. His coach may have him beat.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Lame title aside, this is a terrific piece on Austin Rivers from Jack Daly. Rivers went from being a walking cliche — the talented but selfish son of an NBA coach — when he arrived at Duke to something far more compelling once he took the court. Sure, he’s made mistakes. But he’s also Duke’s best offensive weapon. His critics jumped on his early season struggles and have tended to alter the criticisms instead of the narrative as his game improves. It’s clear he has a chip on his shoulder, but I haven’t heard that chip really expressed openly until this piece. He talks about trying to succeed in the shadow of Doc Rivers and the wealth of expectations and dearth of praise (at least at the college level) for his achievements. Daly finishes the piece with a perfect quote from Rivers:
   

   People always ask what makes me hungry now: I haven’t done anything yet. I haven’t done anything yet. I had a great high school career, I was No. 1 – I don’t care. No one cares about that anymore. At Duke, I haven’t won a national championship, I haven’t won an ACC Tournament, I don’t play in the NBA. I haven’t done anything. I have everything that can motivate me.

3. CBSSports.com: Continuing the Duke – North Carolina rivalry trope, Brett Friedlander sat down with several former and current Tar Heels to talk about why they chose the school in Chapel Hill over the one eight miles south in Durham. Former Tar Heel big man Eric Montross seems to hit the nail on the head, calling the decision a “gut feeling” of one school over the other. Whether it’s North Carolina’s adjacent museum, the banners, or meeting Michael Jordan — Tar Heel players walk away from visits just knowing… On the flip side I suspect many players who choose Duke feel the same about Cameron Indoor and its many banners overhead as well. The atmospheres are undeniably different, but the two team’s histories share an excellence.
4. Chicago Tribune: Miami is quietly building an NCAA Tournament resume now that Reggie Johnson is back in the line-up. The Hurricanes have won five of their last six games and four straight including the overtime win at Duke. That said, the “surprise” part of Miami’s bid foundation (for me) is that it’s taken this long to take hold. Certainly Johnson’s injury didn’t do Jim Larranaga any favors, but if you asked me which new coach was doing the worst job at the start of conference season, I wouldn’t have hesitated calling out the former George Mason coach. Miami still has a lot of work to do. I think it splits with Florida State and avenges a home loss to NC State. If the Hurricanes take care of that business, they’ll have 11 conference wins with the disclaimer that the ugly first half of the season was without Johnson (really 10 wins and a solid performance in the ACC Tournament could do the trick, but better safe than sorry).
5. Fayetteville Observer: In honor of Duke and North Carolina, Stephen Schramm sat down with @thedevilwolf, one of the best trollers in the business. If you follow ACC basketball much on Twitter, you probably know his handle (but not his name). In addition to timely trolling, he’s also good for insightful comments during games and over on Duke Hoop Blog. Schramm also mentioned another mysterious Tobacco Road Twitter celebrity, @TarHeelWire, who disappeared suddenly after nearly two years of constant tweeting on North Carolina athletics when more and more people sought the identity of the man behind the handle.

EXTRA: Troy Machir over at Ballin’ Is A Habit put out his 2011-12 All-Hair-Team, and the list starts with Mike Scott and his many cornrow designs. No other ACC players make the cut (though Miles Plumlee‘s high and tight makes a defensive cameo).

As mentioned in today’s Morning Five, the ACC Office reported the combined score of Duke and North Carolina‘s last 75 games to be 5,858-5,857 with Duke holding the slim lead. This is false. Apparently the office missed a game somewhere because the actual statistic is Duke leading 5,867-5,834. To be clear, the stat is still insane. North Carolina still holds the overall lead at 38-37.

UNC Holds a Slight Edge Against Duke Over the Past 75 Games (Getty Images/P. Williams)

Taking the statistic back to it’s logical conclusion (the beginning of the calendar year of 1980), the two rivals have played 78 games. North Carolina won 40; Duke won 38. The cumulative score is still owned by the Blue Devils with a five-point advantage.

In the end the reported statistic was wrong, but the rivalry has been incredibly competitive over the last three decades. Oh, and the two teams only finished out of the AP Top 25 eleven years combined (five years for North Carolina and six years for Duke). Of those years Duke finished in the top five according to AP voters 12 times, and North Carolina finished in the top five 14 times. That’s pretty unbelievable.