March is here and the Madness isn’t far off. Last night, NC State won a close one against Miami, helping themselves in the hunt for a bid while taking a little air out of the Hurricanes’ bubble. Meanwhile, in less meaningful news, Boston College managed to win its fourth conference game defeating an increasingly confused-looking Georgia Tech team and pulling themselves into eleventh place. In Chapel Hill, Tyler Zeller closed out his Dean Smith Center career by putting up 30 points and playing some of the best basketball of his career in an ugly “platinum” uniform while Kendall Marshall handily broke the North Carolina single season assist record against a Maryland team that just couldn’t stop a relentless (though often inaccurate) Tar Heel attack.

Battle of the Second Tier

• #19 Florida State at Virginia at 7:00 PM on ESPN2

The Seminoles are two and half games up on the Cavliers in the conference standings with only two games to go so this isn’t really a battle for third place in the conference, but it sure feels that way. The two defensive powerhouses of the ACC met once before this season in Tallahassee where the home team managed a tough one-possession win. The fact is that these tough, close losses to good teams are starting to catch up to Virginia. Outside of a win against Michigan, what else can the Cavaliers point to? Beating Miami and Drexel? Virginia is a very good team, but they don’t really have an impressive résumé. Beating ranked Florida State would help to strengthen the Wahoos position heading into the ACC tournament. Meanwhile, the Seminoles have faltered down the stretch losing their past two games, which is equal to the number of losses they had in 2012 before the skid. Barring a total collapse,  Florida State probably is already a near-lock to go dancing. It would be nice for Florida State to win this game, but the Seminoles don’t need it like the Cavaliers do. At home, I like Mike Scott to close out his time in Charlottesville with a bang.

Crouching Tigers As Hidden Dragon?

• Virginia Tech at Clemson at 9:00 PM on ACC Network Affiliates and ESPN3.com

Very quietly, the Clemson has reached the .500 mark in conference play. With wins against Florida State, Virginia, and Saturday’s win over NC State, the Tigers have put themselves in a very interesting position. If Clemson wins tonight against the Hokies (no guarantee since they lost their first match-up) and manages to win again against Florida State to finish out the season, Brad Brownell‘s team will be positioned to play two very winnable games in the ACC Tournament and have a shot at snagging another marquee win or two. Looking at the Clemson’s list of bad losses, the Tigers look very sketchy. Still, though it’s a long shot, I think the Tigers do have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Or at least getting tantalizingly close just in time to get shot down on Selection Sunday. In any case, this long shot is going to make tonight’s game a little awkward. Seth Greenberg knows.

Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started with Duke (seed prediction: #1-#2), North Carolina (seed prediction: #1-#2) and Florida State (seed prediction: #5-#8).

Virginia came within a possession of knocking off Duke at Cameron, Florida State in Tallahassee, and most recently, North Carolina in Charlottesville. But the fact is that the Cavaliers came up short each time. Now Tony Bennett‘s team has a resume featuring one very good win (Michigan at home in November) and a few more decent wins (against Drexel, NC State and Miami). That’s not a lot to work with. The Cavaliers also own one horrible loss against TCU early in the year and an unfortunate loss at home against Virginia Tech.

Mike Scott and Virginia Need To Close Out Conference Play with Two Wins.

The good news for Virginia is that its RPI profile looks slightly better, as it owns a 7-5 record against the top 100 (5-1 against #51-#100, 2-4 against the top-50). Additionally, the committee knows the Cavaliers played the ACC contenders close.

The issue for Virginia won’t be getting to the NCAA Tournament: The issue will be getting off the #8/#9 seed line. This is a team that has an elite defense. The offense has dry spells, but Bennett’s team can hang with almost anyone in the country. Still, I’m sure he’d rather avoid a top seed in the round of 32. If Virginia beats Florida State at home, I think that moves the Cavaliers to a seven. If it loses, probably a nine. The biggest issue is that nothing happens in a vacuum, especially around conference tournament time. Between now and Selection Sunday, Virginia needs to beat Duke, North Carolina or Florida State at least once to solidify a good seed.

Be warned: there will be a lot of ACC Player of the Year talk.

1. Sports Illustrated: But before we get to ACC Player of the Year banter, it’s time to talk Kendall Marshall. Marshall is really hard to pin down. He’s the lynchpin in North Carolina’s offense, maximizing the efficiency of Roy Williams’ very talented machine, but he rarely scores himself. Luke Winn took a look at four crucial (but very different) point guards to analyze their turnovers. If you have ever watched a North Carolina game, it won’t surprise you 80% of Marshall’s turnovers come on “bad passes.” More surprising is that Marshall hasn’t traveled all season. Like always, Winn’s articles are worth a read.
2. ESPN: Robbi Pickeral picked her ACC Player of the Year and Coach of the Year yesterday (a larger panel of experts picked without explanations too). Tyler Zeller is in a two-man race with Mike Scott, but Coach of the Year still has plenty of contenders. Pickeral chose Zeller and Leonard Hamilton; the experts overwhelmingly chose Zeller and picked Mike Krzyzewski by a 7-3 margin over Hamilton (Tony Bennett and Jim Larranga also received votes). I’m not sure why Pickeral makes multiple allusions to the fact that North Carolina is really talented and will split votes. It’s true that John Henson and Zeller will probably steal votes from one another, but saying that’s the only reason Scott would win is a huge disservice to the season Scott put together.
3. SCACCHoops.com: In a related note,this article looks at Mike Scott’s case for Player of the Year. Zeller’s numbers appear better at a glance, but the Tar Heels have played 400 more possessions than Scott. This is the problem with comparing points or rebounds a game at face value. Scott’s 17 points and eight rebounds a game carry more weight in an offense that uses fewer possessions than Zeller’s 16 and nine. For effect, Will Ojanen falsely inflates Scott’s stats by adjusting for North Carolina’s tempo and deflates Zeller’s to Virginia’s tempo: Scott would “theoretically” average 21 points and ten rebounds a game; Zeller would average 12 and seven. In reality stats don’t scale like that, but you should also understand that Scott’s 17 points and Zeller’s 16 points are different too. The most understated part of this article is how much better Zeller is on defense.
4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Norm Wood profiles Scott, looking at the influence of his father. Growing up the son of a 20-year veteran taught Scott discipline, but also how to adapt to new environments. There’s no doubt both qualities were instrumental in making Scott the success he is, having gone through multiple coaches and a season-ending injury on the way to his hallmark season.
5. Poynter and Awful Announcing: You might have heard about the media “controversy” where Shane Ryan (of Tobacco Road Blues and formerly Seth Curry Saves Duke fame) was denied a credential to the Duke – North Carolina game this weekend, even though he requested it through Grantland. Poynter does a phenomenal job following up on the details (how many credentials were issued, Richard Deitsch’s follow-up reporting and Duke’s response). Awful Announcing covers more background on Ryan including tying the current events back to what originally got Ryan noticed (his terrific rant, which in my opinion remains the best of his work even if he apologized for it later).

EXTRA: Suffice to say Virginia‘s student newspaper, The Cavalier Daily, joined the club of Cavalier fans not happy about the officiating in the loss to North Carolina. My favorite part is the philosophical rant on flopping and excellence.

EXTRA EXTRA: Boston College won the game for the #11 seed in the ACC Tournament against Georgia Tech 56-52 thanks to a hot start and the fortitude to just hold on as the Yellow Jackets made their run late in the second half. You can relive the game through the eyes of Eagle fans with all of its ups and downs.

Duke handily blew out Wake Forest last night, though the score reflects Wake Forest’s desperate and ultimately futile rally rather than the early domination inflicted at the hands of the Blue Devils. Despite the high stakes of this time of the year, this game didn’t change anyone’s fortunes. Tonight, however, there is one game with serious bubble implications as well as a few other prizes on the line.

Duke Held On to Win At Wake Forest Last Night (Herald-Sun)

The Battle of the Bubble

• Miami at North Carolina State at 9:00 PM on FSN

Before the Wolfpack’s current four-game losing streak, it looked like NC State had a fairly good chance at getting into the NCAA Tournament. Now, the team stands on the outside looking in with increasingly few chances to get big wins. Miami, on the other hand, looks like they may well be on their way to the Big Dance after handily beating the Seminoles on Sunday. The Wolfpack beat the Hurricanes earlier in the season and if they want to have even an outside chance at Tournament play, they have to win this game. Miami probably has to win this game too, but the mood is definitely a little more tense in Raleigh. With the reinstatement of Reggie Johnson, who sat out against Florida State, the eager Hurricanes will be ready to cope with the athletic talent of NC State. Both teams will have work to do after this game regardless of the outcome, but tonight is a good place to start.

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Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started with Duke and North Carolina.

How do you judge Florida State? The Seminoles own two outstanding wins. Their 33-point win against North Carolina may be the most impressive win for anyone of the year. Beating Duke in Durham is nearly as impressive. Florida State’s other good wins are against Virginia and Miami. But Florida State also lost to Princeton. It also took a 20-point beating at Clemson to open ACC play and somehow lost at Boston College. The rest of the Seminoles’ losses came to likely NCAA Tournament teams (Harvard, Connecticut, Michigan State, Florida, Duke and Miami).

Michael Snaer Is Stepping Up His Senior Season.

Obviously, the Seminoles are dancing. They also still have a road game against Virginia and a rubber match against Clemson to improve their resume. As of right now I agree with the masses and think Florida State is in the #5 to #6 seed range. (That link is to the Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix, which takes 95 brackets into account before compiling the consensus S-curve.) There are legitimate arguments for seeding Leonard Hamilton’s team anywhere from #4 to #8 depending on how much you value non-conference play.

One important thing to remember is that Ian Miller didn’t play in the first semester. He’s one of the team’s better offensive players, averaging double figures per game. Combine Miller’s performance with Michael Snaer finally realizing his McDonald’s All-American hype in conference play, and there’s a reason the Seminoles look so different in 2012. Projecting Florida State’s success in March is more difficult than assessing the proper seed. This is a team that could go to the Sweet Sixteen (or beyond) if shots are falling. It’s also a team that could get upset in the first round if shots aren’t falling. We know the defense will be there (though the team’s struggles defending smaller line-ups during the last two games give some pause); but how far can Snaer and company carry the offense?

1. The Classical: This is a terrific article on Skip Prosser and his legacy at Wake Forest. Media and fans alike reference the Demon Deacons’ recent history of success a lot. They also talk about Dino Gaudio with mixed opinions. But rarely do they really talk about Skip Prosser. Maybe it was just too soon to have an honest conversation, but his death became the story. Matt Gallagher’s piece looks at the hope Prosser brought with him to Winston-Salem, the pride, the success and eventually the huge hole he so tragically left behind. If you don’t read anything else today, read this.
2. ACC Sports Journal: Speaking of Wake Forest, Ron Wellman is in a tough spot. Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum is outdated and too large. Recently, reports surfaced that Wake Forest might buy the arena from Winston-Salem. It was originally built to compete with the Greensboro Coliseum, but falls in the awkward 14,000-seat range that’s much too big for small “college” bands, but far too small for the big-time acts. If there was more interest, a large capital campaign might allow for a new arena to be built, but it’s going to be hard to raise ~$100 million for basketball right now. Between the lack of success on the court and the economy, now is just not the right time.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It may not be getting nearly as much publicity as Duke and North Carolina, but the Georgia Tech – Boston College battle tonight is for last place in the ACC. The bad news for the Yellow Jackets is they will be without their best player, as Glen Rice, Jr., will be suspended for the game. That said, they’re coming off their best win of the season against Maryland (without Rice), and beating the Eagles by four at home three weeks ago. Can they win their first road game since stunning NC State early in conference play? Is Brian Gregory’s system starting to take root? Tune into Raycom or ESPN3 at 7:00 PM to find out.
4. Orlando Sentinel: Florida State struggled mightily to defend the perimeter against Duke and Miami. Before they get too down on their effort, I want to point them to a series of articles that Ken Pomeroy has posted recently on defense’s effect (or lack thereof) on three-point percentage. Those should be comforting, but don’t ignore the problem. Miami played small-ball against FSU because of Reggie Johnson’s injury, which proved difficult for the Florida State bigs to guard — especially on the perimeter. Duke also played an extra-three-point-threat-heavy offense because of Plumlee foul trouble. Is playing small the best way to beat the Seminoles?
5. Duke Basketball Report: In honor of the date, Barry Jacobs took a look at all of the leap day games in ACC history. Duke is 3-1 in February 29 match-ups, with two wins coming against North Carolina. Meanwhile NC State has played seven times, losing four games on this date.

EXTRA: Jay Smith wrote an op-ed piece in the Raleigh News & Observer on the importance of the “student” half of student-athlete. The piece is directed specifically at North Carolina after there was backlash against a “statement of athletic principles” from a group of North Carolina professors. In the world of high-major athletics, my guess is that professors at most other ACC schools would agree. I personally think Smith undercuts the value of athletics, but I also understand his frustration.

EXTRA EXTRA: If you missed Duke’s game against Wake Forest last night, you missed the announcers and Blue Devils checking out late in the second half, as the Demon Deacons nearly erased a 23-point lead with a 19-2 run. Despite the remarkable run, the announcers kept talking about Saturday’s game. (h/t @RnR_NCSU)

Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started yesterday with Duke.

Unlike Duke, though, the eye test is mostly kind to North Carolina. When the Tar Heels are firing on all cylinders, look out. There’s a reason this team lost by one at Kentucky (and had several chances to win the game). Only Kentucky can match North Carolina’s talent, and no team can match its frontcourt depth. But for whatever reason the Tar Heels don’t bring their A-game every night.

Tyler Zeller, ACC Player of the Year frontrunner, Needs to Demand the Ball (AP Photo/G. Broome)

It’s not from a lack of effort or preparation. There are just stretches when the Tar Heels become ineffective for whatever reason. I’ve seen people hypothesize it’s because Roy Williams uses his bench too early and too often. That may be true, but the problems seem to start when the team starts looking for jumpers instead of running the offense inside-out. North Carolina has four losses: against (basically at) UNLV, at Kentucky (by one), at Florida State and against Duke. The UNLV game featured a very good, fired-up team that hit every shot it took; the Kentucky game is the closest anyone has come to knocking the one-loss Wildcats off at home in a long time. That leaves the Florida State beatdown and Duke collapse.

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We are in the home stretch of the regular season. It would be sad if that didn’t mean that tournament play is in the air. After a high stakes weekend where Miami made its case for the big tournament while Virginia and North Carolina State faltered at a critical moment, this week kicks off with a fairly lopsided matchup.

The Infernal Showdown

• #7 Duke at Wake Forest at 9:00 PM on ESPNU

The last true road game of the season for Duke, the Blue Devils need to win this game to contend for a #1 seed. Duke should be more than up for the task, but they come into Winston Salem playing a Wake Forest team that has nothing to lose. After last year’s miserable season, the Demon Deacon’s forward progress is admirable, but when push comes to shove, this is a team that has only won four conference games. After a red hot start, Travis McKie has cooled down. Actually, outside of the still-incandescent C. J. Harris, the whole team has cooled off. With their season heading nowhere fast, Wake Forest doesn’t have much to do outside of ruin Duke’s day and make Nikita Mescheriakov and Ty Walker‘s Senior Night memorable. With the worst defense in the league and one of the worst offenses, Wake Forest would need an exceptional game (marked by frequent trips to the line, effective perimeter defense, and a lot of luck) to surprise the Devils. Still, it’s the last week of the regular season and strange things happen when teams play for pride.

1. Augusta Free Press: I don’t know how a StateFansNation post ended up on a newspaper’s website, but oh my does Chris Graham go off on the ACC here. Seriously, I’ve read my fair share of bitter editorials on message boards, Twitter or just personal conversations, but the conspiracy theorists rarely make it past “[Duke or North Carolina] got the benefit of several 50/50 calls” in newspapers. Apparently, Graham got tired of it after watching his home-state Virginia and Virginia Tech teams cheated out of a second half lead and “runaway,” respectively. There’s no doubt that it’s frustrating to be a fan of ACC teams outside of Duke and North Carolina: The two have historically dominated the league and the media coverage. But to say the ACC is a “stacked deck” is a little extreme. I’ll leave you with Graham’s closing thoughts:
   

   But we never really do anything that will actually have an impact – like, I don’t know, boycott en masse the season tickets of our favorite schools, to send a message with our wallets and pocketbooks that if the ACC is going to keep shoving the same crap down our throats and telling us to like it, well, then, eff you, we don’t like it.

   We’ll keep filling up our arenas and root like hell when we play each other, because at least then we’re on equal terms, and then when Duke and UNC come to town, we’ll fill the seats up then, too, on the off-chance that the refs won’t foul us out down to our walk-ons if we get a big lead, and we can rush the court in celebration of a win over the hegemons of Tobacco Road. [emphasis added]

   As long as we keep acting like the sheep that we are, change in the ACC ain’t never gonna happen.

2. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of “the hegemons of Tobacco Road,” Bubba Cunningham (North Carolina’s new athletic director) is in favor of a 128-team NCAA tournament. I hate the idea not because it will destroy the Big Dance like some critics say (it won’t; but it will dilute the value of winning a bid and possibly destroy the lesser postseason tournaments). My problem is that you’re adding an unnecessary round of games. That’s more travel; that’s more blowouts; that’s more fatigue. The Tournament would survive, but would the couple of upsets be worth an extra round of games? Every year we decry the bubble as the worst in years. Nearly every team is given an fair shake. Why add a round?
3. Gobbler Country: Below is a screenshot of philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s Ecce Homo. Take note of the first four chapters: The first starts innocently enough “On this perfect day…” The next three though? Not so much.
   

   Nietzsche Wrote The Definitive Philosophy. Gobbler Country Wrote The Definitive Case For Seth Greenberg. (photo credit: Amazon.com)

   That level of confidence was the feeling I got reading the title “The Definitive Case For Seth Greenberg.” Jokes about the title aside, I totally agree with Gobbler Country here. Greenberg shouldn’t be fired. He shouldn’t be on the hot seat. He made Virginia Tech basketball far more relevant than in the years before him. He’s done it with class and the program appears to be improving. Last year he brought in a Top 25 recruiting class. Things are trending upward even if this year is a rebuilding year.

4. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow took a shot at his All-ACC Team entering the final week of conference play. He also dropped some very valuable advice for voters: “[The All-ACC Team is] going to have a Carolina blue tint, and I’m fine with that, as long as voters don’t go overboard. And overboard means including four North Carolina players.” Skill-wise, North Carolina might have four of the five best players in the ACC. But all-conference implies a level of importance or dominance that can’t come from a team that may not even finish first.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Carroll Rogers does a great job profiling Paul Hewitt, who is still judging himself by the same standards he did at Georgia Tech. Now he’s trying to make the Big Dance at George Mason. Hewitt sounds content with his new gig, though that $7.2 million dollar buyout certainly makes the new job sweeter.

Reggie Johnson was suspended by the NCAA indefinitely for his family allegedly receiving improper travel benefits from a member of Frank Haith’s staff. It should sound like a broken record at this point: family receives impermissible benefits; school and player argue the player didn’t know about them. It’s the same defense that kept Cam Newton from missing any games at Auburn en route to the national championship; it’s the same defense that restored Ryan Boatright’s eligibility earlier this season; it’s the same defense that will make a mockery of NCAA rules if not addressed soon.

Reggie Johnson Is Suspended Indefinitely. But How Long Is That?

First, a disclaimer: I think that the NCAA rulebook is not fair to student-athletes. In this case, we’re probably talking about a coach paying for a plane ticket. Why shouldn’t coaches be allowed to subsidize transportation for families? Don’t give me the “it’s not fair” argument. Nothing is fair in college athletics. Is it fair that some schools sit next to huge reserves of local talent or that some schools can afford top-tier practice facilities, top-tier coaches, and prime time TV exposure? No. But that’s the way it is.

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