Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook broke down Austin Rivers‘ decision-making yesterday in an article for ESPN’s Grantland. He shows the discrepancy between Rivers’ college game and his high school game, as well as meticulously breaking down a couple of fairly frequent mistakes Rivers has made early on in the season. Pruiti is actually quite complimentary of Rivers, especially his ability to get to the foul line. And Pruiti asserts that Rivers can live up to the hype if the Duke freshman continues to adjust to the college game. Others have not been so optimistic. CBSSports.com’s Matt Norlander thinks that mentally “he’s not buying in to K’s system yet,” which “could push/pull all [year].” Norlander isn’t alone. During Duke‘s game against Tennessee my Twitter timeline was filled with people ripping Rivers for being overrated, immature and even an outright bust. Some were Duke fans. Some were journalists. Some were neither.

Per Game Stats of Two Duke Freshman Guards (from Statsheet)

For comparison, take a look at these offensive stats from two Duke combo guards who came in as consensus top-three recruits in the table above. The right column is Austin Rivers through his first five games (the Tennessee game). The stats are eerily similar in scoring in everything down to field goal percentages. Looking closer Rivers even has a slight advantage in most of the shooting statistics, and a very large advantage in free throw rate. Rivers biggest deficiency is in assists, where the compared guard doubles his output. Everything else is very close.

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The agony and the ecstasy. Not sure there’s a better quip to define the ACC’s night in the eyes of two fanbases. Boston College was absolutely dismantled — at home — by a team picked to finish twelfth in the A-10. The Eagles lost by 36 to Massachusetts. NC State, on the other hand, found itself looking at a tough spot down 18 with eight minutes left in the second half against a talented Texas team. The Wolfpack went on a 28-2 run to take the lead before earning the victory.

1. ESPN – Grantland: Sebastian Pruiti breaks down Austin Rivers‘ flaws with meticulous detail. And while it’s true the freshman has struggled early, I think this article is a bit of an overreaction. Pruiti readily admits that Rivers has all the tools, he just isn’t consistently making the best decisions. This is to be expected. The college game is much quicker, taller and stronger than anything Rivers has ever played before. It’s still very interesting to look, via screen grabs, at Rivers’ tough transition to the college game, and I love that we’ve got NBA writers now covering college sports. For an example of the types of plays that define Duke’s offense (especially on set plays), check out this gem from The Mikan Drill.
2. Washington Post – Opinion: In wake of major fiscal issues, Maryland has decided to cut eight varsity sports. Unfortunately, these teams all have incredibly high graduation rates and really represent what the NCAA is supposed to be about. Charles Lane takes a pretty hard stance, but I think his ire is well-grounded (even if I disagree). There’s still a chance the teams could be saved if enough money is raised to cover their costs.
3. SportsMemo.com: I mentioned the Boston College smackdown earlier, but SportsMemo.com points out a very interesting side note. Boston College opened as a 2.5 point favorite over the Minutemen, but so much money jumped on the Minutemen that the line was pushed to 4.5 points the other way by game time. Six points (and changing the winner) is a lot of ground to cover, and it should tell you that the betting public and sharps have very little faith in Steve Donahue’s Eagles.
4. SI Vault: Curious where the Maui invitational got its start? Look no further than a mammoth upset of top-ranked Virginia by host Chaminade in 1982. “From now on, wherever athletes must face an impossible task, the cry will go out, ‘Remember Chaminade!’ Virginia will.” That’s not totally true, but it’s a mind-blowing upset. Since the invitational’s inception Chaminade has pulled off six more upsets, although none quite as astonishing and far-reaching as the victory over Ralph Sampson’s team three decades ago.
5. Fox Sports Carolinas: Andrew Jones looks at the top coaches in NCAA basketball history. He narrows it down to Bobby Knight, John Wooden, Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski. Shockingly, that’s the order from fourth to first of his final rankings. I agree that Knight falls a cut below the other three. But I don’t agree with leaving Adolph Rupp off the list or placing John Wooden third because of Sam Gilbert’s slush fund and improper benefits. It’s tough to put a man with more than twice the national championships as anyone else at third; Wooden actually has more titles than the rest of Jones’ list combined.

EXTRA: Check out Seth Davis’ Hoop Thoughts to learn what tips he’s got for NBA fans trying out college basketball during the lockout. Also you should get pumped that more NBA writers will be using their brains to look at college basketball. ESPN stat guru John Hollinger is already at it with a look at at a modified version of his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and a breakdown of what the numbers mean in the long run.

Well…when it rains, it pours. And good lord did it pour following the ACC’s perfect 26-0 start. The conference has since gone 8-8 with absolutely hideous losses from Boston College (getting beaten by Holy Cross might be OK, but by 22?), Clemson (at College of Charleston would be one thing; at Littlejohn is another), and supposed-upstart Virginia (TCU is an acceptable loss… in football).

1. ACCSports.com: Mike Krzyzewski sounded a little like Dean Smith when he talked about win number 903 and retirement. Although he acknowledged the record was a big deal, Coach K deflected much of the credit to his former players. He also doesn’t have a set goal for wins or seasons as he looks to retirement. Rather, to quote him, “my thing probably will not be as planned. I’ll know. I’ll just know.” This seems the general sentiment for hypercompetitive coaches. Gary Williams obviously just knew after last season. Smith just knew in 1997.
2. TarHeelBlue.com: Roy Williams has filled out his coaching staff with a couple of former players in Bobby Frasor and Jackie Manuel. Technically they aren’t coaches. Frasor is the assistant video coordinator and Manuel is the strength and conditioning coordinator. Coincidentally, both alumni-turned-employees played for Williams’ championship teams in 2005 and 2009.
3. Baltimore Sun – Tracking the Terps: You can criticize Mark Turgeon for many things, but not about his candidness. After a blowout loss to Iona (an experienced team which many will likely predict to upset someone in the Big Dance), Turgeon said: “This is the biggest challenge I’ve ever had in coaching. It’s not even close. To me, the kids have got to care more. I’ve taken over programs before that were picked low in their league, but the kids did what they were supposed to do.” Turgeon’s attack feels risky to me. He has a young team that’s also shorthanded. Terrell Stoglin only took up point guard duties just last week because of Pe’Shon Howard’s injury. At the same time, lack of effort needs to be nipped in the bud immediately. As Turgeon is showing, it’s a delicate balance one has to walk as a high-major college basketball coach.
4. Charlotte Observer: In the wake of Ryan Harrow’s transfer, Lorenzo Brown has really stepped up for NC State. Against Princeton he dropped 16 points and dished eight dimes — including one for the game-winning shot to Deshawn Painter. On the game-winning play the Charlotte Observer‘s JP Giglio said, “it was the kind of assertive play N.C. State has been missing from the point guard position for the better part of 20 years.” I’m not sure I’d go that far, but Brown has game and will be the X-factor for a young, talented Wolfpack team.
5. Lexington Herald-Leader: Jerry Tipton set out to answer the question, “since the John Wooden-led UCLA dynasty ended in 1975, which program sets the standard for excellence?” Unsurprisingly Seth Davis, Robyn Norwood and Blair Kerkhoff all chose either Duke or North Carolina at the top spot. Jay Bilas hinted at an elite tier of programs that included eight teams. I’d tend to agree, although Kentucky should be very close behind.

Well, the streak is dead after Maryland decided to shoot less than 20% from the floor (OK, Alabama’s slightly-better-than-decent defense had something to do with it too), and Georgia Tech turned around and lost by double figures to St. Joseph’s in the Charleston Classic. Stephen Schramm of the Fayetteville Observer posted a nice recap of the 26-game winning streak if you want to reminisce. The run was great while it lasted. No worries though, the ACC (or at least North Carolina) is still atop of Luke Winn’s Power Rankings!

1. ESPN Radio (via Washington Post): Maryland alum Scott Van Pelt sat down with Gary Williams to talk about his relationship and rivalry with Mike Krzyzewski. Williams has fond, competitive memories of playing Coach K’s Duke teams in the early 2000s when both schools were at the top of college basketball. Williams brings up a couple of gut-wrenching losses (including this one). The most interesting piece of the interview might have been the lede of one of Van Pelt’s questions when he mentioned that Williams will be an analyst for the Big Ten Network.
2. New England Cable News: If you believe his dad, Doc Rivers, Austin Rivers isn’t focused on his future so much as the present. According to the Boston Celtics head coach, Rivers isn’t worried about being one-and-done or the NBA lockout; “He’s more concerned about winning.” Doc Rivers’ interview makes it sound like his son is doing his best to fit into Duke’s system, which should be great news for Blue Devil fans (many of whom were concerned Rivers would try and fit the system to him). Rivers has been mercurial through the first three games, averaging a very inefficient 12.7 PPG.
3. New York Times: Another potential sexual abuse scandal may headed for college sports, as ESPN reported earlier today that Syracuse police are investigating Bobby Davis’ claims that associate head coach Bernie Fine molested him “hundreds of times” when he was a ball boy for the Orange (starting in the seventh grade). Coming on the heels of the Penn State disaster, Syracuse acted immediately. Fine has been placed on administrative leave while the investigation proceeds. One difference between this and the Jerry Sandusky scandal is that this is a newly opened investigation by the police, not grand jury report. Jim Boeheim has already made some waves by coming to the defense of his longtime assistant coach.
4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Mark Gottfried isn’t the only new ACC coach making waves on the recruiting trail. Brian Gregory is quietly putting together a top-15 class headlined by five-star forward Robert Carter. He also still has two scholarships to give (or save for next season when he only has two available). My guess is he’ll use at least one on a point guard in the spring. In their loss last night, the Yellow Jackets only managed four assists to ten turnovers, and only had two players make more than two field goals. Not counting Mfon Udofia and Kammeon Holsey, Georgia Tech starters went a smooth 4-25 from the field.
5. Orlando Sentinel: It’s safe to say that Bernard James wasn’t impressed with the Seminoles’ defensive effort Wednesday night. His teammates don’t sound impressed either with lots of talk of “lessons” and “growing” from the win. As Leonard Hamilton pointed out, Stetson plays the type of ball that Florida State is most vulnerable to (it runs the dribble drive with lots of shooters). There are more talented teams with similar systems, but I agree with the players that the game should serve as a learning experience (and as a bonus, they did get the win). But these kind of games definitely make you wonder how the Seminoles will fare in conference play.

EXTRA: Apparently the NCAA has its finances online for the world to see (originally Deadspin thought the documents were leaked). If you’ve ever been curious how the NCAA uses the hundreds of millions of dollars generated by college basketball, these documents are worth perusing. It’s an interesting public relations move for the organization to release these documents without publicizing it. But in the wake of all of the recent criticism about NCAA greed, I think releasing the documents was the right choice.

Duke, Kentucky and North Carolina rule recruiting. That might seem like an obvious statement, but Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus took the time to quantify the programs’ relative recruiting dominance and look at the specific breakdown of where the value for the schools’ classes is. The results are fascinating, and in some respects mind-blowing.

Over the past ten years, the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, and Wildcats have combined to sign 91 top 100 recruits (nearly 10 percent of every top 100 prospect available) and 28 top 10 players (nearly 30 percent). They’ve put forth all of the top six classes since 2002 and 13 of the best 19.

Don’t forget in the last ten years two of those programs have had coaching changes (Roy Williams took over for Matt Doherty in 2003; Kentucky was coached by Tubby Smith, Billy Gillispie and John Calipari over the last decade). People also criticized Mike Krzyzewski for “slipping” when he failed to land John Wall and Greg Monroe in 2008.

Harrison Barnes is a Rare Top Overall Recruit for North Carolina

However, the more nuanced numbers are even more interesting. Cannon broke down the top recruits into five ranges: 1-3, 4-10, 11-25, 26-50 and 51-100. North Carolina fills its rosters mostly with the 4-10 range while Duke utilizes the top range and a broader range of around 12-40. Cannon’s research points to potential flaws in both schools’ systems. Duke, whether actively or passively, avoids the second half of the “one-and-done” players even though many of those players end up staying around. The Tar Heels aren’t as reliant on the true top players (although Harrison Barnes certainly shows some success in the area).

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The gentlemen over at Blogger So Dear (SBNation‘s Wake Forest blog) took note of the conference’s unblemished record yesterday morning: “The ACC is 22-0 this year so far…it must be asked…can we run the table?” Another four wins later and the last perfect conference (sorry Pittsburgh, your application is for 2014-15) is still standing.

Blogger So Dear is Definitely Worth the Follow for Wake Forest Sports

1. Sports Illustrated: I’m not sure how I missed this for yesterday’s Morning Five, but Seth Davis’ post on Mike Krzyzewski and Bob Knight’s relationship is a must-read. In some ways the men are as different as you could imagine, but take a look at some of Knight’s old Indiana games and you’ll see (and lipread) the same fire that’s characterized Coach K’s sideline persona. The article speaks for itself, and I can’t begin to do it justice so I’ll just leave the rest to Seth Davis.
2. TarHeelBlue.com: This is a cool series North Carolina‘s athletic department is doing where once a month it’s hosting a chat with a member of the basketball team. Whoever is up next is going to have pretty big shoes to fill (sorry for that), as Kendall Marshall led off the series with a chat covering everything from his love for kicks to his favorite place to eat on Franklin Street. Marshall has been getting well-deserved love for his social-networking on Twitter (he’s overtaken Missouri’s Kim English as the best follow in college basketball), so if you ever get tired of “#riseandgrind #nodaysoff goin to the gym” athlete tweets, check him out. I’d be very excited to hear Harrison Barnes answer fan questions, but the true must-read chat might come if Blue Steel (the walk-ons) are ever given a chance.
3. New York Daily News: Maryland will face off against Kentucky in the first college hoops battle at the new Barclays Center arena in Brooklyn next season. The new building will host the New Jersey Nets (who will probably be getting a new name), but John Calipari “approached the Nets months ago and asked to have his team play the first college game there.” This is interesting to me on a couple of levels: (1) Calipari coached the Nets a while ago and it would be kind to call his tenure anything but a failure; and (2) Nets’ co-owner Jay-Z is a big Kentucky fan. The game is scheduled for November 9, 2012.
4. PressBoxOnline.com: Maryland legend Ernie Graham is finally having his jersey retired 32 years after he left Maryland. Graham’s story is a sad one filled with drugs, but he’s using his story (much like former Boston College stand-out Chris Herren) to help keep others from falling into the same trap. Graham’s crowning achievement was scoring 44 against NC State in 1978. The record is even more amazing taking into account the lack of a three-point line and that he only played 25 minutes per game. Because of his troubled past the athletic department has been largely distant, but a combination of getting clean and Maryland hiring new athletic director Kevin Anderson will finally bring closure and recognition to a great college career.
5. Associated Press: NC State relapsed into its coasting tendencies from last year in a tight 60-58 win over Princeton last night. Princeton notoriously plays a brand of basketball based on slowing the game down, not committing turnovers, and moving the ball (trust me, NC State fans know). This kept the Wolfpack out of transition, which has been their bread and butter in their opening two games. However, the biggest news of the game was Mark Gottfried’s cold-blooded assassin, Scott Wood, suffering a bad ankle injury early. The good news is that X-rays came back negative. The bad news is that Wood could be out “for a while,” according to Gottfried.

Duke Blue Planet produced an awesome video in honor of Coach K’s record-setting victory Tuesday night (their tribute site also has some pretty outrageous stats, but this one courtesy of @TheDevilWolf is unbelievable: “Coach K has coached 169 players [148 at Duke]. Of those, 84 have played in a Final Four, and of those, 41 won national championships”).

And then there was one…undefeated conference! That’s right, the ACC is the last conference standing with no losses. Just yesterday the SEC continued its tradition of losing to a SoCon and Big South team (congrats to Elon and Coastal Carolina for the wins); Kent State took care of West Virginia and Miami knocked off Rutgers to down the Big East; Kansas and the Big 12 took one on the chin from Kentucky; last and definitely least, the Pac-12 was embarrassed as UCLA managed to lose by 20 at home to the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders; and Michigan State lost to Duke at Madison Square Garden to seal the Big Ten’s fate. For those of you keeping score at home, the ACC is now a combined 22-0 after a little over a week of action.

1. ESPN: Dana O’Neil and Jay Bilas do a great job capturing Mike Krzyzewski‘s career in wake of the Blue Devil victory over Michigan State to give him the all-time Division I wins record. O’Neil reflects on the more important things that the number 903 reminds us of. Most important are his family followed closely by his mentors and students from the game — basically, she takes this moment to reflect on Coach K’s career. Bilas’ reflection as a former player is much more personal. He describes his own recruitment, using it for a microcosm for Krzyzewski’s eventual rise to greatness. Bilas points to Coach K’s ability to bring out his player’s innate “toughness” in order to maximize his team’s potential (Author’s Note: Bilas has a slightly unconventional definition of “toughness” that’s worth checking out). Together these two pieces do a good job placing Duke’s legendary coach and his career in some kind of perspective.
2. Boston Herald (via Baltimore Sun): Mark Turgeon has swagger. He had it as a player, and he’s got it as a coach. How many guys would go up to Larry Brown and demand a spot on Kansas’ basketball team? This profile of Turgeon reminded me a lot of stories about Mike Krzyzewski’s playing days at Army (undersized point guard, leader, etc.). Turgeon’s sharp tongue and obsession with winning also parallel Coach K. But watching Turgeon on the court, his composure stands out above his spurts of emotion. I think he’ll end up as a great hire for Maryland in the long run.
3. Washington Times: Speaking of Turgeon, the big news from Monday night was Maryland star Terrell Stoglin beginning the Terps’ game from the bench. Although Stoglin said the matter was private, it sounds like the message was that Turgeon’s offensive star needs to shift his focus to both ends of the court. Stoglin ended up playing over 30 minutes and leading his team in scoring with 22 points. Maryland doesn’t have the firepower to blow the socks off its opponents this season, so the Terrapins will need to rely heavily on not making mistakes and playing effectively on the defensive end.
4. Gaston Gazette: NC State may not have CJ Leslie (or point guard Ryan Harrow, who transferred to Kentucky), but the Wolfpack look like they’ve turned things up to eleven relative to last season. Their opponents so far aren’t necessarily giant-killers, but in their first two games they’ve assisted on 47 of their 62 field goals including 15 of the first 16 against Morehead State. Additionally, their shallow front line has been incredibly effective. Slimmed down Richard Howell and Deshawn Painter have replaced Leslie’s production and some. Sophomore Lorenzo Brown has also stepped up to run the point after the team lost both of last year’s point guards.
5. Charlotte Observer: Speaking of NC State, former Wolfpack legend Rodney Monroe is back in the States after a 15-year professional career overseas to try and turn around Southlake Christian’s floundering basketball program. Monroe holds the NC State all-time scoring record with 2,551 points (a little more than college basketball great David Thompson). He’ll have his work cut out for him, as last year the Eagles only managed one win.

EXTRA: North Carolina’s newspaper, The Daily Tar Heel, noticed that Playboy released its Top 25 for college basketball recently. Headlining the list is North Carolina, but Duke is ranked fourth. Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and Austin Rivers all make the magazine’s All-America team. The ACC love stops there though.

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is going for his 903d win to hold the record for D-I men’s college basketball wins outright tonight against Michigan State. We covered the milestone and its implications in our preseason coverage, but the rest of the collective college basketball media will pay tribute to Duke’s legendary coach over the next few days. In preparation for Coach K’s big game at Madison Square Garden, today’s Morning Five is dedicated to the occasion.

1. New York Times: Krzyzewski may be 64 years old, but you’d never know it from watching him on the sideline. Whether the game is against UNC Greensboro or North Carolina, the fiery coach still expects the best out of his team. He up until the wee hours watching film before a big game only to be “shot out of a cannon” for practice the next day. Will he get to 1,000 wins in the next few years? Former assistant Mike Brey thinks so, and it’s hard to argue with him.
2. The Sporting News (interviews with Grant Hill and Nolan Smith): Grant Hill might be the best player Krzyzewski has ever coached and Nolan Smith etched his name in Duke history (and probably his jersey in the rafters) after leading the Blue Devils to the 2010 National Championship. The Sporting News caught up with both former players and the interviews give an interesting look at Coach K and the evolution of his coaching style over the years. Hill remembers a speech from his freshman year two decades ago where Coach K guaranteed, “we’re going to win the national championship this season.” Nolan Smith, on Krzyzewski’s strategy: “Make plays, be a player.”
3. Associated Press: In 1994-95, Coach K offered his resignation after sitting out most of a season with back surgery: “When I did that, I knew I couldn’t lead my team, and I just think that comes from the military,” Krzyzewski said. “If you’re not [able], there should be a different leader.” Luckily, Tom Butters didn’t accept the resignation. He has downplayed the record consistently, pointing out that the game against Michigan State means more to this team than his career. In a sense he’s right. One regular season game of hundreds is insignificant, but 903 wins represents an unprecedented level of continued success among men’s basketball coaches in Division I.
4. Duke Basketball Report: Duke Basketball Report takes a look at 17 of the most important games of Coach K’s storied career. Not all of the games are wins. In fact three are embarrassing losses: A beat-down at the hands of Ralph Sampson and Virginia in 1983; the worst defeat in the history of the Final Four against UNLV in 1990; and a loss to Clemson in 1995 that punctuated a short season for Krzyzewski. After the 43-point shellacking from the Cavaliers, at dinner “one of the diners raised his glass and said ‘here’s to forgetting tonight.’  Krzyzewski fixed him with a glare and said ‘here’s to never forgetting tonight.'”
5. Fayetteville Observer: I’ve linked this before and I’ll probably do it again because Dan Wiederer’s three-part profile of Coach K from 2010 is incredible. The piece is one of the rare instances where you get what feels like a three-dimensional perspective on Krzyzewski and his life. He’s simultaneously revered and vilified by college basketball fans, often at a personal level. This profile captures a man far more complex than the saint or sinner portrayed by most fans. It manages to find a touch of gray in the man with the jet-black hair.

It’s no secret that Roy Williams likes to use large rotations. Most of last year he rotated full lineups with frequency, and it wasn’t new to last year. If you look at his national championship teams from 2004-05 and 2008-09, only one player averaged thirty minutes a game for each team (Raymond Felton and Wayne Ellington). Ty Lawson’s toe injury probably kept him from being another player at around 30 minutes a game. Last year Williams expanded his rotation from eight players to nine (I’m only counting Larry Drew II and Justin Watts as one player), with only Harrison Barnes averaging 30 minutes a game.

Roy Williams is Relying on his Starters more this Season

But in the game against UNC Asheville Sunday, every Tar Heel starter logged at least 30 minutes. In that game, James McAdoo, Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston all played close to ten minutes, but in two games Williams hasn’t been nearly as open with his rotations as in years past. Whether Williams’ change in strategy was due to a pesky UNCA team that just wouldn’t go away, or wanting to test his starters’ conditioning with the quick turnaround from the Carrier Classic (where the North Carolina starters all also played 30 minutes), is unknown. But especially for a game against a low major team, North Carolina’s reliance on its starters is interesting thus far.

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For the last ten years, fairly or unfairly, Duke has had the perception of being all backcourt all the time. Long gone are the days where Christian Laettner, Elton Brand or Carlos Boozer graced the court in Durham. In describing his recruitment decision to attend Michigan last week, Mitch McGary let it all out: “all [Duke’s] big men do is set screens and rebound and that they don’t get a lot of touches.”

Josh McRoberts' Relative Lack of Success at Duke Still Haunts the Blue Devils

Duke Hoop Blog looked at this perception, which moves closer to reality as the memory of its last dominant big man, Shelden Williams, fades out of casual fan memory. The author comes to the conclusion that the Williams/Redick era is the answer, and I see his argument. But I don’t think it’s that simple, or even the biggest factor in Duke’s relative decrease in a post presence over the last ten years. I think the real argument is much more complex and is a combination of four main factors:

1. Read the rest of this entry »