ACC M5: 01.02.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 2nd, 2013

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  1. Tallahassee Democrat: Coming into this season we knew experience might be an issue for Florida State. But very few people saw Ian Miller’s foot injury coming, so nobody understood what a large part the freshmen would play. Montay Brandon, Aaron Thomas and Devon Bookert  are still figuring things out, but they’ll make the Seminoles a force come conference play. It will be interesting to watch their progression, as Leonard Hamilton has rarely showcased freshmen in his system.
  2. Winston-Salem Journal: Skip Prosser may not have been able to coach defense, but he was one of the most beloved coaches in college basketball. His style reflected his personality: flashy and likable. Walt Corbean, now an assistant at Wake Forest and someone who once played for Prosser, best described it: “He held me to that same standard. And I think that’s always stood out in my mind, that he treated us as men, and it wasn’t about what you were bringing to the team, but that you were a part of his program.”
  3. Durham Herald Sun: Compared with older brother Stephen Curry and father Dell Curry, Seth Curry may seem average or even a bit of a bust. But he’s having an incredible season so far this year for Duke. He and Virginia Tech’s Erick Green are duking it out to be the best guard in the ACC (though Michael Snaer will probably have something to say about that before March). In honor of his play, Duke recently named Curry the third captain of the team (along with Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly).
  4. ESPN: In honor of future ACC legend Jim Boeheim reaching 900 wins, Jeremy Lundblad took a look at the other coaches with a chance to reach the mark in their careers. I only have a couple more suggestions: Brad Stevens should be higher on potential alone (he’s only36!) and Bill Self should be number one. Bob Huggins has a chance at reaching 900 victories, but he’s an old 59. Roy Williams’ recent health scare may keep him from coaching until he’s 70. Regardless, it’s a fun conversation starter.
  5. KenPom: Ken Pomeroy simulated every conference’s season 10,000 times and reported the winners. The ACC was the second least suspenseful race with Duke winning the league 8,797 times to Virginia’s 476 times. That said, Pomeroy’s system’s fatal flaw is overrating teams like Virginia (whose slow tempo leads to much larger per possession efficiency margins). Most interestingly, North Carolina only won the league 143 times (less than 1.5%) thanks to its tough conference schedule, where it has to play the top seven ACC teams twice and the bottom four only once.
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ACC Noon 5: 01.01.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 1st, 2013

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  1. Streaking the Lawn:Awesome future non-conference news out of Charlottesville. One thing that’s been dying lately are home-and-home series with non-conference foes, but Virginia will (hopefully) iron out the details on a future head-to-head with local rival VCU. That should make for a really interesting series, and looks to benefit both parties. The Rams and Cavaliers get another marquee non-conference game to prove its strength come Selection Sunday. Fans get a potential budding rivalry played at a high level. Although there is a chance Tony Bennett’s pack-line, slow-down system will spontaneously combust when it meets Shaka Smart’s HAVOC scheme.
  2. Baltimore Sun: Jake Layman didn’t have a seamless transition when he got to College Park. He struggled academically and athletically in his first semester, but the freshman is looking for a new start for the new year. Layman has the chance to be a great four-year player for Mark Turgeon, but he just has to focus on “getting better every day.” Don’t expect Layman to be the Terrapins’ most important piece this season, but look for him to be more comfortable on and off the floor.
  3. Keeping It Heel: PJ Hairston seems to be growing into a more important role in Chapel Hill this season. He took full advantage of Reggie Bullock’s injury in the Tar Heels’ win over UNLV, playing 32 minutes, scoring 15 points on 10 shots, and grabbing four steals. If Hairston continues to improve — specifically on his shot selection and defensive intensity — don’t be surprised if Roy Williams pushes him to play starter minutes (or replaces Dexter Strickland in the starting lineup).
  4. SBNation Boston: Things are looking better in Chestnut Hill. No, the Eagles aren’t looking like contenders but Boston College has looked much better over its recent five-game winning streak. Specifically, the defense is greatly improved and freshmen Joe Rahon and Olivier Hanlan are both averaging double figures. Steve Donahue’s schedule hasn’t been littered with world-beaters, but there’s a lot to be said for learning how to win. This team should be more competitive — even if they don’t win more games — than last year’s squad.
  5. Chapelboro: Jeremy Gerlach wrote a travel guide for the ACC (albeit leaving Chapel Hill, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Winston-Salem and College Park off the list). With conference play tipping off this Saturday, you may want to do some research before picking your road trips. This article is an OK place to start, but I’d probably look a little more closely.
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ACC M5: New Year’s Eve Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 31st, 2012

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  1. Raleigh News & Observer: After the Martin Report investigating North Carolina was released, it raised numerous more questions than answers. It also reflects several inconsistencies that point to one of three things: (1) people lied to Jim Martin, (2) people lied to N&O reporter Dan Kane, or (3) there was a serious lack of depth to the report that failed to check those assertions. Kane went through the committee minutes and didn’t find evidence of “red flags being raised” and confirmed that with a member of the committee himself. He also points out some (damning but circumstantial) anecdotal evidence as a counterexample to the Martin Report’s assertion that this isn’t an athletic scandal. Don’t think we’ve seen the last of this.
  2. Winston-Salem Journal: Wake Forest’s Devin Thomas comes from a basketball family. His mom and dad both played in college, and two years ago his sister was the ACC Rookie of the Year. He’s still very raw — especially on the offensive end — but he’s extremely aggressive, a solid rebounder and already a good shot-blocker. If Thomas can cut down on his turnovers and hit some more shots, he’ll be a very good player for Jeff Bzdelik in time.
  3. Baltimore Sun: It’s pretty generous to say Maryland‘s non-conference schedule was “too soft.” Right now the Terrapins’ strength of schedule is a below average #265 out of 347, according to the still evolving RPI. According to Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin the slate rates an even more pathetic #341 and #343, respectively. Outside of the Terps’ opening game against Kentucky, there’s been no substance to speak of.  Next up: IUPUI. Then conference play. Needless to say, it’s hard to know exactly where the Terrapins stand going into ACC play, but the league really needs Mark Turgeon’s team to be good this season.
  4. Macon Ledger-Inquirer: Speaking of schedules best described as a “parade of pre-ACC pretenders,” Georgia Tech is also wrapping up its non-conference schedule against the terrifying Chattanooga Mocs (which is short for “mockingbirds” if you were curious). Georgia Tech’s cupcake schedule makes a lot more sense than Maryland’s, though, for one reason — this truly is a rebuilding year in Atlanta. The NIT is a more reasonable goal for the Yellow Jackets than the NCAA Tournament, so the non-conference schedule is more of a confidence builder and tune-up than a resume. That said, as the last two articles illustrate, ACC play could be a real wake-up call for a lot of teams.
  5. USA Today: Bad news out of Coral Gables, as Reggie Johnson will yet again miss a significant portion (six to eight weeks) of the season with an injury. This time it’s a left thumb fracture that has already caused Johnson to miss the past two games. The really unfortunate part about the news is that Johnson has always seemed to be on the cusp of greatness. Likewise, this seemed like Miami’s year to put together a run and contend in the league. We’ll have a more thorough analysis of what Johnson’s injury means for the Hurricanes a little later this morning.
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Is Miami the Second Best Team in the ACC?

Posted by mpatton on December 21st, 2012

After Miami undressed Central Florida on the road this week, it’s become very clear that this team is better than its 12-point road loss to Florida Gulf Coast to start the season. Throw in Florida State’s early struggles, North Carolina losing to a very mediocre Texas team and NC State giving up nearly 80 points to a offensively challenged Stanford team, and now it looks like the Hurricanes are the second best team in the ACC because of their improved backcourt play.

Miami is a team to be reckoned with thanks to improved backcourt play. (Photo: Al Diaz / Miami Herald Staff)

Jim Larranaga‘s team has all the pieces: an exciting — underrated, at least in terms of watchability — point guard, a veteran leader, a slew of athletic wings, and a terrific front line. But seriously, how awesome will the frontcourt battle between Duke and Miami be this year? Reggie Johnson and Mason Plumlee are two of the best back-to-the-basket guys in the country. Kenny Kadji and Ryan Kelly are two of the best stretch fours. Right now, Duke appears to have an edge, but just remember last year’s Duke – Miami game at Cameron Indoor Stadium for a look at Johnson’s value.

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Martin Report About UNC Academics Released: Leaves Questions Unanswered

Posted by mpatton on December 20th, 2012

North Carolina released the independent report from former governor James Martin Thursday morning and a lot people aren’t happy. Admittedly biased rival fans aren’t satisfied (or here), and North Carolina fans and alumni aren’t either. The primary reason for people’s disdain is simple: The report doesn’t add much, in substance, to what was already known. Yes, Martin throws out some statistics about the number of grade changes investigated, but the major players weren’t interviewed. That means Julius Nyang’oro (the head of the African American Studies department, who taught many of the fraudulent classes), Debbie Crowder (Nyang’oro’s assistant) and Wayne Walden (the counselor who came to North Carolina with Roy Williams but left in 2009 when basketball players stopped taking African American Studies classes) were not interviewed.

Jim Martin released his report on the UNC academic scandal, which left most questions unanswered. (Photo: Chris Seward / Raleigh News & Observer)

Jim Martin released his report on the UNC academic scandal, which left most questions unanswered. (Photo: Chris Seward / Raleigh News & Observer)

The report puts the onus of the scandal on the African and African American Studies department with Nyang’oro taking all the blame, but the lack of relevant interviews leads to a murky picture (emphasis added):

We were unable to discern a clear motive for establishing and offering these perverse and anomalous courses. The evidence is consistent with one hypothesis that these courses were provided for the primary purpose of enlarging the department’s enrollment, as a factor for increasing its allotted faculty positions. As a generality, no one was paid extra for having more than the normal number of these courses. There is no evidence that anyone outside of the Department office was active in its instigation and continuance. I believe personally that the big money from television contracts does distort values of collegiate sports programs; but we found no evidence that it was a factor in these anomalous courses. Despite what one might imagine, there is no evidence the Counselors, or the students, or the coaches had anything to do with perpetrating this abuse of the AFRI/AFAM curriculum, or any other.

So essentially after the Martin Report, we’re no closer to finding out why these classes existed. Were they for athletes? To increase enrollment? Because Nyang’oro loved reading 20-page research papers instead of lecturing? The paragraph above admits that the money in college athletics “does distort values” of programs, but in the same paragraph accepts absence of evidence (from what appears to be a corporeal investigation) as evidence of absence.

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Catholic Seven Exodus: What It Means for the ACC

Posted by mpatton on December 19th, 2012

With last weekend’s announcement that the seven Catholic schools (DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, St. John’s, Seton Hall and Providence) voted unanimously to leave the Big East, conference realignment is still going strong. The good news for ACC fans is it doesn’t look like the change will directly impact the conference. Cincinnati and Connecticut would still love to join the ACC, but time isn’t of the essence for that unless the Big Ten gets antsy again.

Mike Aresco

Big East Commissioner Mike Aresco couldn’t negotiate a TV contract big enough to keep the Catholic schools satisfied. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

However, the news will still have major ramifications going forward. First, the old Big East is dead. It was probably dead when Syracuse and Pittsburgh jumped ship, but now it’s truly an empty name describing a group of financially-connected schools. The paradigmatic schools are gone — save Connecticut — and they’re taking their basketball history with them. But the news isn’t all bad for college hoops fans. According to the New Jersey Star Ledger‘s Brendan Prunty, the schools are looking to start a new conference focused on basketball (related, this is the best recap of how and why the Catholic schools left, so read it). Right now they’re aiming for 12 schools, potentially including Gonzaga, Xavier and/or Butler. The conference would be financed largely by NCAA Tournament bid money instead of football money. If the concept works (i.e., the schools are consistently successful enough to financially sustain high level athletics), it would be revolutionary. But before looking too deeply into the concept, it’s important to understand the current landscape of realignment.

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ACC M5: 12.14.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 14th, 2012

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  1. Tallahassee Democrat: Yesterday, Michael Rogner suggested Okaro White becoming more aggressive would help the Seminoles. Another thing to consider is that Florida State did very well in transition against Maine. Part of its success was Maine’s strategy, but the Seminoles reportedly wanted “to establish ourselves in transition,” according to head coach Leonard Hamilton. This year’s team isn’t quite the beast defensively inside the arc as the past few Seminole teams, so it makes sense to try to get more turnovers (on paper the team should be lethal in transition). Definitely keep an eye on this as we get closer to conference play.
  2. Winston-Salem Journal: Things are getting uglier and uglier at Wake Forest. Jeff Bzdelik will not be taking any more live calls on his radio show. Apparently the move isn’t to “deflect criticism,” but it definitely looks that way. The show’s producers are trying to cut down on long-winded callers wanting to vent instead of ask questions. Host Stan Cotten and some colleagues at IMG College made the call to move to a format of all pre-recorded questions.
  3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Whitey Reid took a look at ranking the “pleasant surprises” for Virginia, but may have forgotten to point out the forest through the trees. It’s true Teven Jones, Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins have all surprised people, but what about the team as a whole? If you told me Virginia would be 8-2 with wins over Wisconsin and Tennessee at this point in the season and were missing Jontel Evans for most of it, I would have laughed at you. This team has really outperformed my expectations and Jones, Mitchell, Atkins and Tony Bennett all deserve credit.
  4. Keeping It Heel: I think Rich Martin really underrates Ty Lawson (who I think everyone underrates because he played with Tyler Hansbrough) and Kendall Marshall in this article when he compares the two former Tar Heels with Marcus Paige. It’s true they had more cohesive pieces surrounding them when they showed up in Chapel Hill, but they were two of the best point guards in college basketball of the last decade. Paige shows flashes of brilliance — much like Quinn Cook last season for Duke — but he really feels a year or two away from being an ACC-caliber frontman. It will be really interesting to see over the next month how Roy Williams trims his rotation. Paige is probably the best offensive option and he (again, like Cook) has to be the guy for this team to be great, but he’s not starting from the same place as Marshall or Lawson.
  5. The Examiner: Miami is a team we could learn a lot about over the next couple of weeks. The Hurricanes picked up an ugly loss early (without Durand Scott), but looked great in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge win over Michigan State. They have a good chance to find themselves ranked if they beat undefeated Charlotte, coming out of a 13-day hiatus for exams. Especially with North Carolina and NC State looking vulnerable early, Miami could find itself in a good position to challenge for the runner-up position in the league. Also Garrius Adams and Bishop Daniels should be rejoining the team sometime next semester, which will help with depth.

EXTRA: Luke Winn’s Power Rankings are always worth the time, though they’re a little light on ACC meat as of late. This week he looked at Mason Plumlee‘s progression from much-maligned contributor to Player of the Year contender. Essentially, Plumlee’s stats are identical to his sophomore season with a few exceptions: He’s drawing fouls like a mad man, he’s hitting his free throws and he’s not turning the ball over. He’s also involved in a lot more possessions. Regardless, it’s really interesting how something as trivial as free throw shooting can affect the overall perception of a player.

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ACC M5: 12.13.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 13th, 2012

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  1. Tomahawk Nation: Michael Rogner kills this article on Florida State’s Okaro White. He delves into the advanced stats (namely true shooting percentage) and draws his conclusions based on watching the games. This is the way all stats should be used. Regardless, White is one of Florida State’s best scorers; he just needs to shoot more. Right now, he’s shooting nearly 50% from three over the last year, he’s effective on the block, and he’s great in the high post. He absolutely needs to take charge of this offense. Assuming his efficiency scales up well, White may be the key to the most efficient offense Leonard Hamilton has had in Tallahassee (an honor currently held by the 2006-07 team starring Al Thornton and Toney Douglas). Read this.
  2. Tar Heel Blog: North Carolina has started three players at the five this season. None average 20 minutes a game, but freshmen Brice Johnson and Joel James seem to so far be getting the edge over Desmond Hubert. Johnson is an offensive star, but his slight frame could be a fatal flaw come conference play. James has the body of an elite five, but he has a lot of work to become more than a rebounder and physical presence. Long story short, look for Hubert’s minutes to continue their downward trajectory and for Johnson and James to keep sharing most available minutes for Roy Williams’ squad.
  3. Baltimore Sun: In the news surprising no one category, I present this article: “Maryland sharing the ball better this season.” Seriously though, the Terrapins are averaging eight more assists a game this year, taking them from the worst team in the ACC to one of the best teams in the country in terms of distributing the basketball. The obvious differences between this year and last year are the loss of Terrell Stoglin (a literal black hole) and the improvement of Alex Len. Add a healthy Pe’Shon Howard and new freshman Seth Allen… and there’s your improvement.
  4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Virginia looks good. They’re surprisingly strong on offense and the freshmen have adapted to Tony Bennett’s defensive schemes well. Unfortunately, Jontel Evans re-injured his foot in the game against Tennessee last Wednesday. Unlike last year when the Cavaliers lost two players in December to transfer, Bennett should have a deeper roster when Evans returns for conference play. Evans’ injury may be a blessing in disguise, as the team has had to learn to score without its point guard on the floor.
  5. SBNation: Jabari Parker, the consensus second-best player in the class of 2013, will announce his college decision next Thursday. According to recruitniks and his dad, Duke and Michigan State remain the clear frontrunners. Parker is a 6’8″ and athletic scoring machine. If he does choose Duke, the Blue Devils may be the team to beat next season. Tentatively, they’d start Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Rodney Hood, Parker and Marshall Plumlee with Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson coming off the bench. That’s a really long, athletic team with four great scoring options.
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ACC Greats Honored By NCAA

Posted by mpatton on December 12th, 2012

In honor of the 75th anniversary of March Madness, the NCAA released a list of the top 75 players, top 35 moments and top 25 teams from college basketball yore. Like most lists, there was some historical bias. Twenty players made the list from the 1980s, a full eight guys more than the next closest decade. The 2000s were also underrepresented with only seven players making the cut (including Shelvin Mack?) — which was less than any other complete decade besides the 1940s. There were some snubs and some who probably shouldn’t have made the cut, but the list is a good place to start.

Duke and North Carolina shine as NCAA honors past greats.

Duke and North Carolina shine as NCAA honors past greats.

The ACC representatives include six players from Duke, six from North Carolina (coincidence?), one from NC State, one from Virginia, one from Georgia Tech and one from Maryland. Future ACC members Syracuse (one), Notre Dame (one) and Louisville (two) also would expand the ACC haul. Duke’s selections, headlined by three members of the back-to-back national championship teams in 1991-92, spanned a decade (1984-94) except for Shane Battier. North Carolina’s representatives saw a much broader span, kicking off with Lennie Rosenbluth in 1957 and finishing up with Sean May and Tyler Hansbrough in 2005 and 2009, respectively. NC State’s David Thompson — arguably the best player in ACC history — headlined the honorees from other schools. Speaking of Thompson, his Wolfpack championship team of 1974 and Duke’s repeat championship teams were the only two teams outside of Chapel Hill to make the team list (whose only championship team to miss the cut was 2004-05). Since the list is honoring March Madness, it’s hard to get too upset about leaving off teams like Duke’s runner-up in 1998-99 or UNLV’s runner-up 1990-91 squad, but the list feels a little weak since it’s mostly populated by teams that won the national title as the undisputed best team.

We’ll have more on snubs and a ranking of the conference selections after the list has time to marinate a little bit.

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ACC M5: 12.12.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 12th, 2012

  1. Cincinnati Enquirer: One thing is sure about conference realignment: Nothing is certain until the press conference. It’s been like coaching searches on speed the past two years with rumors flying every which direction. Add Twitter and several accurate reports originating from blogs and message boards and the chaos starts to make sense. This article though shows some 20/20 hindsight in looking at Cincinnati‘s effort to attract the ACC during the most recent round of realignment. The Bearcats sent brochures, they talked up their contacts within the ACC — including asking former coach Urban Meyer to back the Bearcats for a move to the ACC (which is totally bizarre: first, why would Meyer’s opinion matter to the ACC?; and second, why would Meyer presumably strengthen the league his conference expands from in the future?).
  2. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia Tech is about to add two Pooles to its lineup. Stacey Poole, a transfer from Kentucky, is eligible to start playing Monday. His younger brother, Solomon, graduated high school early and will be joining the Yellow Jackets as soon as the NCAA sorts out his eligibility, which isn’t expected to be an issue. Solomon should help spell Mfon Udofia at the point guard position (he’ll probably start as the third guy in line, but I expect him to see significant minutes by conference play). Solomon Poole will be one of the more athletically gifted guys on the team right away, but how long will it take him to get used to the college game?
  3. Run the Floor: I was low on Virginia coming into this year because I loved Mike Scott. He had one of the prettiest mid-range games I can remember and was one of the few reasons to get excited by the Wahoos. But shockingly, Virginia’s offense hasn’t really missed a beat. They’ve effectively “replaced” Mike Scott with a combination of Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell. Mitchell in particular is the guy to watch — he’s a totally different player this season. He’s significantly more efficient in almost every respect. You want the front-runner for Most-Improved? It’s Mitchell.
  4. Streaking the Lawn: Weighing expectations and teams on paper against performance is tough early in the season. For one, the sample size is small. Secondly, schedules are wildly different. Duke has three top-five wins (even if one of those teams was overrated); Virginia Tech only has one loss itself but hasn’t really gotten to prove much past a great win against Oklahoma State. Brian Schwartz does a good job balancing expectations with performance — though calling Erick Green‘s performance so far “potential first-team All-ACC” is dangerously close to trolling.
  5. Charlotte Observer: This look at ACC coaches and how they stay healthy is fantastic, and it’s probably worth dissecting a little bit. What does a workout regimen say about each coach? Brian Gregory and Tony Bennett both do P90x. The most tenured (Coach K, Leonard Hamilton and Roy) all do some combination of weights, walking and either treadmill, stationary bike or yoga. The Marks (Turgeon and Gottfried) hit the elliptical. Jeff Bzdelik just sticks to yoga.
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