2020-21 RTC16: Week 10

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on February 1st, 2021

Teams that began the week ranked among the AP Top 25 lost a combined 13 games this past week, with a handful of other games being too close for comfort. While the RTC16 top five went unscathed, last week’s rankings have undergone a shakeup following the up-and-down week. No one climbed higher in a week than Oklahoma which used wins against Texas and Alabama to vault into the top 10. The state of Texas continues to dominate the RTC16 with four teams ranked among the top 12, but it is now Houston who is ranked second among Lone Star State teams. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougar team is now 15-1, with its lone blemish coming by a point against Tulsa.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: Big 12 (4), Big Ten (4), ACC (3), SEC (2), AAC (1), Big East (1), WCC (1)

RISING

  • Illinois: The Illini picked up a signature win with their victory over Iowa on Friday. Trent Frazier scored a season-high 24 points and matched his high-mark with four made three-pointers. Prior to Friday, Frazier had been averaging just 7.3 points per game over his previous seven games.
  • Ohio State: After a shaky performance on Wednesday against Penn State, a game in which the Buckeyes overcame an eight-point deficit in the final ten minutes, Ohio State defeated Michigan State with ease. At 8-4 in Big Ten play, second-place is within reach for Chris Holtmann’s squad. Sophomore EJ Liddell has stepped up his game recently having scored 20 or more points in each of the last three games.
  • Virginia Tech: The Hokies had scored 34 points in the opening 28 minutes against Virginia over the weekend. In the final 12 minutes, Virginia Tech outscored UVA 31-7 to grab a key ACC win. Tech’s 2-0 week comes following the suspension of Tyrece Radford. Keve Aluma’s presence was large scoring 14 against Notre Dame and then 29 against Virginia. Aluma was coming off of a two point, 1-of-10 showing in a loss at Syracuse the weekend prior.

FALLING

  • Kansas: Kansas snapped its three-game skid midweek against TCU, but came crashing back down with an uninspiring and lopsided loss against Tennessee. While the at-times maligned David McCormack was productive, the Jayhawks trio of Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, and Jalen Wilson could not buy many makes from three-point range, combining to go 6-of-32 from deep in KU’s two games last week.
  • Marquette: After a 5-2 start which included wins against Creighton and Wisconsin, Marquette’s season continued in the wrong direction this past week with losses to Providence and St. John’s. Now sitting at 8-9 and 4-7 in the Big East, the Golden Eagles are headed for their worst season since Steve Wojciechowski’s first year at Marquette.
  • Michigan State: Thursday night’s 30-point loss at the hands of Rutgers was the most lopsided loss to an unranked team during Tom Izzo’s tenure at Michigan State. It was only the fourth time an Izzo coached Spartan team had lost by 30 or more points, the last time having come in December of 2008 against #1 North Carolina. Michigan State followed up its loss at Rutgers with a 17-point loss against Ohio State. Michigan State’s six-conference losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 16 points.

NOTABLE GAMES OF THE WEEK

  • Monday: Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, 9 PM EST, ESPN
  • Tuesday: Baylor @ Texas, 7 PM EST, ESPN
  • Thursday: Ohio State @ Iowa, 7 PM EST, ESPN
  • Saturday: Alabama @ Missouri, 8:30 PM EST, Network
  • Saturday: UCLA @ USC, 10 PM EST,
  • Sunday: Xavier @ Villanova, 2:30 PM EST, Fox
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Ten Questions to Consider: Challenges In and Across Conferences

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 29th, 2021

The final weekend of January brings important conference tilts with teams trying to stay at the top of their leagues, others trying to end skids, and those in the Big 12 and SEC playing for conference bragging rights. With under 50 days to go until Selection Sunday, here are 10 questions I have for games this weekend:

  1. Can Iowa play enough defense to leave Champaign with a victory? (Iowa @ Illinois, Friday, 9 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) The Hawkeyes led Indiana 53-44 with 12 minutes to go last week before surrendering the lead from a 23-3 Hoosiers’ run over the next nine minutes. The Illini’s Kofi Cockburn enters this game with seven consecutive double-doubles and 11 on the season, matching Western Kentucky’s Charles Bassey for the most in the nation. Entering play on Thursday, Illinois is one of three teams to rank among the top 20 in both two-point and three-point field-goal percentages.
  2. Will Alabama exploit the percentages surrounding the Oklahoma defense? (Alabama @ Oklahoma, Saturday, Noon EST, ESPN) Over 47 percent of Alabama’s field-goal attempts come from behind the three-point line. And while they are making 36 percent of those attempts on the season, the Crimson Tide have made an SEC best 41.2 percent during a 9-0 start to league play. In this Big 12/SEC Challenge, the Tide face an Oklahoma defense that both sees opponents attempt more threes than the national average and make them at a clip of 35.8 percent, ranking 258th in the nation.
  3. Can Santiago Vescovi snap out of his recent shooting troubles? (Kansas @ Tennessee, Saturday, 6 PM EST, ESPN) Tennessee’s Santiago Vescovi is 5-of-19 (26.3%) from beyond the arc over his last four games. In all other games this season, Vescovi has gone 24-of-55 (43.6%). A hot Vescovi could send Kansas to its fourth loss in five games.
  4. Will Sharife Cooper’s excellence be slowed by the tenacious Baylor defense? (Auburn @ Baylor, Saturday, 4 PM EST, ESPN) Since becoming eligible six game ago, Auburn freshman Sharife Cooper is averaging 22.3 points, 8.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds a game. In his last game, Cooper scored 28 points in just 28 minutes, thanks in part to an 18-for-21 night at the line. Baylor’s suffocating defense led by Davion Mitchell rarely gives up looks around the rim, putting pressure on Cooper to show a three-point stroke that has not been there yet this season.
  5. How much of Boise State’s great start to the season was a product of its schedule? (Boise State @ Colorado State, Friday, 11 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) Boise State began the year 13-1 overall and 9-0 in Mountain West play before dropping a game Wednesday night to Colorado State. Of the Broncos’ 13 wins, only one (BYU) has come against a team with a KenPom ranking of #175 or better. In Wednesday night’s game, Boise State had no answer for Colorado State’s David Roddy, who logged 27 points and 15 rebounds. Roddy is one of seven players in the nation averaging 16 or more points, nine or more rebounds, and two or more assists per game.
  6. Can West Virginia continue its hot shooting from beyond the arc? (Florida @ West Virginia, Saturday, 2 PM EST, ESPN) Since shooting 2-of-21 from deep against Oklahoma six games ago, the Mountaineers have made 52-of-112 three-pointers since. Miles McBride is making a Big 12 best 53 percent in league play, including 12 of his last 19 attempts.
  7. Can Missouri State throw a wrench into the Ramblers 8-1 start to MVC play? (Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State, Sunday, 3 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) Last week, Missouri State played undefeated Drake on back-to-back nights. In the first game, the Bears blew a 15-point second-half lead and on the next wasted a two-point lead with under six minutes to go. Missouri State has the MVC’s top-two scorers in Isiaih Mosley (22.9 PPG) and Gaige Prim (17.1 PPG) and the league’s top rebounder (Prim, 9.8/G).
  8. What Michigan State team will show up in Columbus? (Michigan State @ Ohio State, Sunday, 1 PM EST, CBS) Prior to Thursday night’s no-show against Rutgers, Michigan State had last played on January 8. Through the Spartans’ first six Big Ten games, they have shot 40.8 percent from the field and just 32.5 percent on three-point attempts.
  9. How far can St. Bonaventure ride its defense? (George Mason @ St. Bonaventure, Saturday, 2 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) The Bonnies are 8-1 overall and 6-1 in the A-10. With a defensive effective field-goal percentage which ranks among the top 25 nationally, St. Bonaventure is allowing an A-10 low 87.6 points per 100 possessions in A-10 games. The Bonnies are still waiting for more from the team’s leading scorer Kyle Lofton, who is just 3-of-29 from three-point range this season, a year after he made 41 percent in conference-play.
  10. Which Creighton team shows up on the road this weekend? (Creighton @ DePaul, Saturday, 8 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) Creighton overcame a 16-point second-half deficit on Wednesday to beat Seton Hall. While the Bluejays are 4-2 on the road, a pair of those wins have been by a mere two points. Creighton scores 6.7 fewer points per game on the road while also allowing its opponents to score 5.3 more points per game when playing away from the CHI Health Center.
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2020-21 RTC16: Week 9

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 25th, 2021

While the top four remains unchanged this week, the rest of the top 16 was not without shuffle. A loss to Indiana sends Iowa back out of the top five, while Michigan, now headed for a two-week break, moves back into the top five. Alabama extended its winning-streak to nine games and jumps from 13th to 7th, appearing in the top 10 in each ballot cast. Kansas tumbles to a tie for 16th this week, appearing on just 50 percent of the submitted ballots. Kansas gets a home game against TCU mid-week before a test in the Big 12/SEC Challenge against an equally struggling Tennessee team, which dropped from #7 to unranked in the RTC16 this week.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: Big 12 (5), Big Ten (4), ACC (2), Big East (2), SEC (2), AAC (1) WCC (1)

RISING

  • Florida State: The Seminoles climb from outside of the top 16 all the way up to #10 this week. Leonard Hamilton’s team not only put together back-to-back double-figure wins, but did so in dominant fashion. Florida State led Louisville by a margin of 40-16 before winning 78-65; and then over the weekend led Clemson by as many as 38 points on its way to a 80-61 victory.
  • Loyola Chicago: As of today, the Ramblers have a top 30 NET Ranking and a top 25 KenPom ranking. Senior center Cameron Krutwig is averaging a career-best 15.3 points per game, while shooting 62.7 percent from the field. Porter Moser’s squad is playing tenacious defense, holding MVC opponents to a league-low 83.8 points per 100 possessions.
  • Oklahoma: Despite Austin Reaves shooting 3-of-11 from the field, the Sooners grabbed a big win at home over Kansas over the weekend. De’Vion Harmon matched his season-high of 22 points. More impressively OU limited Kansas to just two offensive-rebounds.

FALLING

  • Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech falls out of the RTC16 after a lopsided loss at Syracuse over the weekend. The Hokies leading scorer on the season Keve Aluma scored just two points and shot 1-of-10 from the field. Earlier today, the Hokies were dealt a blow when Tyrece Radford was suspended indefinitely from the team as he is dealing with off the court issues.
  • Tennessee: The Volunteers were 0-2 this past week with losses to Florida and Missouri. Tennessee turned the ball over 18 times in both games, finishing the week with a turnover margin of -8. Additionally, the Volunteers really struggled at the free-throw line, making just 25 of their 50 free-throw attempts during the week.
  • The top of the Pac-12: While the middle and bottom of the Pac-12 had been largely criticized for being lackluster, prior to this past week the top of the conference seemed to be running strong. Then Colorado, Oregon, and UCLA each lost games last week. Oregon hits the road for a Southern California trip which will feature two games against UCLA and another at USC over the next eight days in what will be important action for the conference.

NOTABLE GAMES OF THE WEEK

  • Monday: Syracuse @ Virginia, 7 PM EST, ESPN
  • Tuesday: Oklahoma @ Texas, 7 PM EST
  • Wednesday: Wisconsin @ Maryland, 9 PM EST, Big Ten Network
  • Thursday: Oregon @ UCLA, 9 PM EST, ESPN
  • Friday: Iowa @ Illinois, 9 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
  • Saturday: Big 12/SEC Challenge, All-Day
  • Sunday: SMU @ Houston, 1 PM EST
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2020-2021 RTC16: Week 8

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 18th, 2021

The state of Texas had the attention of the college basketball world much of the past week. First it was the showdown between Texas and Texas Tech, with Tech’s Mac McClung taking over in the final minutes. Over the weekend, Texas Tech and Baylor played a tight game before the Bears proved to be too much. Attention remains on the Big 12 heading into this week with Baylor hosting a Kansas team who is coming off of a loss against Oklahoma State. Elsewhere, Minnesota rebounded from a 25-point defeat at the hands of Michigan 10 days prior with an 18-point win of its own. While Gonzaga and Baylor continue to roll around, anything has remained possible outside of the top two.

Conference Breakdown: Big 10 (4), Big 12 (4), ACC (2), SEC (2), AAC (1), Big East (1) Pac-12 (1), WCC (1)

Risers

  • Alabama: Riding a seven-game winning streak, the Crimson Tide jump from the “also receiving votes” category and into this week’s RTC16. Alabama knocked down 29-of-66 (43.9%) three-point attempts last week in what were convincing wins over Kentucky and Arkansas. Now sitting atop the SEC at 5-0, Alabama hits the road for the fourth time in sixth games on Tuesday against second-place LSU.
  • Florida State: The Seminoles returned to the court after a two-plus week hiatus and went 2-0 with wins against NC State and North Carolina. The win over the Tar Heels came without Scottie Barnes, but that proved not to be an issue with five Seminoles finishing the game with 10 or more points.
  • Virginia: December losses to San Francisco and Gonzaga seem to be a thing of the past now as Virginia has rattled off five consecutive wins. Their most recent victory came in dominating form at Clemson. Tony Bennett’s team shot 65.5% from inside the arc and 55.6% beyond it on 27 attempts against what was a top five defensive efficiency team in Clemson. After scoring 70 or more points in just two ACC games last season, Virginia has now done so three times in its past four games.

Fallers

  • Arkansas: The Razorbacks ended the 2020 calendar year a perfect 9-0, but since 2021 began the team is just 1-4. This past week Arkansas dropped a pair on the road by 16 and 31 points. Arkansas ranks 12th in league play in both offensive and defensive effective field-goal percentage.
  • Indiana: Archie Miller’s Indiana team fell to 8-6 (3-4) after dropping a home game to Purdue last Thursday. Since taking over in Indiana, Miller is now 0-6 against Purdue. While Trayce Jackson-Davis’ production has remained high, it’s a team that needs more out of junior Rob Phinisee. In IU victories, Phinisee is 11-of-27 (40.7%) from deep, but in losses he is just 3-of-18 (16.7%).
  • San Diego State: A pair of lackluster offensive performances led the Aztecs to an 0-2 week against Utah State. After finishing last season with an offensive efficiency ranking of 11th in the nation, the Aztecs currently sit at 71st and eighth best in the Mountain West Conference. With Matt Mitchell sidelined for the next week or two with a hyperextended knee, the Aztecs could face challenges on the offensive side of the floor.

Notable Games This Week

  • Monday: Kansas @ Baylor, 9 PM EST, ESPN
  • Tuesday: Alabama @ LSU, ESPN2
  • Tuesday: Seton Hall @ Villanova, 9 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
  • Thursday: USC @ Stanford, 5 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
  • Friday: Michigan @ Purdue, 7 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
  • Saturday: Ohio State @ Wisconsin, 4 PM EST
  • Saturday: Baylor @ Oklahoma State, 2 PM EST
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Ten Questions to Consider: Marquee Games and Marquee Opportunities

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 15th, 2021

While some of this weekend’s action has already been cancelled due to COVID, there remains plenty of games to keep an eye on. Battles at the top of several conferences are taking place and teams coming off of losses have a chance to make quick turnaround statements. Here are 10 questions I have for the games set to take place over the next few days:

  1. How will Wisconsin respond following its disastrous game at Michigan? (Wisconsin @ Rutgers, Friday, 9 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) After a Nate Reuvers basket at the 6:19 mark of the first half put Wisconsin down three points to Michigan, the Badgers were on the wrong end of a 43-6 run over the next 15:36 of action. Wisconsin’s Brad Davison is averaging just 5.3 points per game over his last four games, having shot 8-of-31 from the field.
  2. Can Texas Tech steady the hot shooting its opponents have had beyond the arc in league play? (Baylor @ Texas Tech, Saturday, 4 PM EST, ESPN) Heading into Wednesday’s game against Texas, the Texas Tech defense has forced opponents to shoot under 30 percent on the season from beyond the arc, a percentage that is among the top 50 nationally. However, in conference play, that number has risen to 36.2 percent, third worst in the Big 12. Baylor is shooting above 42 percent from deep on the season, currently ranking second in college basketball.
  3. Can Clemson’s top-ranked defense slow what is currently a one-dimensional Virginia offense? (Virginia @ Clemson, Saturday, 6 PM EST, ESPN) As of Wednesday, no team in the country has a better defensive efficiency than Clemson. While the Tigers are allowing under 87 points per 100 possessions on the season, that has climbed to a tick above 96 points in ACC play, ranking just sixth among ACC teams. For Virginia, while the Cavaliers’ offense is among the nation’s best inside the three-point line, they come in struggling beyond it, shooting an ACC worst 29.5 percent heading into its game against Notre Dame.
  4. Like Gonzaga has been doing to everyone else, will they simply run Saint Mary’s out of the gym? (Gonzaga @ Saint Mary’s, Saturday, 8 PM EST, ESPN) While the Gaels have been a perennial second banana to Gonzaga in the WCC over the last decade, recent matchups between these teams have not been close. Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Gonzaga has won 9 of the 11 games, with those nine victories coming by an average of 21.6 points.
  5. Is the Ziaire Williams and Oscar Da Silva pairing the best duo in the country that no one is talking about? (Stanford @ Colorado, Saturday, 2 PM EST, Pac-12 Network) While Stanford five-star freshman Ziaire Williams made headlines with his recent triple-double, not enough attention is being given to senior Oscar Da Silva. Through five Pac-12 games, Da Silva is averaging 21.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game, while shooting above 55 percent from the field, numbers that no recent player has managed to compile throughout a league season.
  6. Like they have done twice before this season, will Kansas quickly bounce back from its loss earlier in the week? (Iowa State @ Kansas, Saturday, 8 PM EST, ESPN+) Following losses to Gonzaga and Texas, Kansas responded by beating Saint Joseph’s by 22 points and TCU by 29. In the Tuesday night loss against Oklahoma State, Kansas players other than Ochai Agbaji were 1-of-12 from beyond the arc. Over his last two games, freshman Jalen Wilson has scored just 13 total points while committing 10 turnovers.
  7. Can Minnesota end its skid and takedown the red-hot Wolverines?(Michigan @ Minnesota, Saturday, 2 PM EST, ESPN2) In the first matchup between these teams just 10 days prior, Michigan won 82-57. While three of the four 10-minute segments were played tight, the Wolverines went on a 29-8 run to start the second-half which blew the game open. In that span, Michigan made 12-of-15 from the field, while Minnesota made just 3-of-15 shots. Marcus Carr was the only Golden Gopher to score more than 10 points in the game.
  8. In Bedlam, which star shines brightest? (Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State, Saturday, 8 PM EST) Oklahoma’s Austin Reaves and Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham are the only two players in the Big 12 to currently be averaging at least 15+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 3+ assists per game. Reaves is again off to a poor start from beyond the arc shooting just 27.7 percent, something that plagued him last year as well. In Reaves’ two years at Wichita State prior to joining Oklahoma, he had made 45 percent of his 182 three-point attempts.
  9. Can Buffalo and Bowling Green manage to defend without fouling? (Bowling Green @ Buffalo, Friday, 7 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) The Bulls and Falcons each currently sit a game behind Toledo in the MAC. Bowling Green and Buffalo have the MAC’s #1 and #2 ranked defensive efficiencies in league play, despite sitting in the bottom two spots in opponent free throw rate. In Bowling Green’s win over Buffalo earlier in the season, its 20 point per game scorer Justin Turner was a perfect 15-of-15 at the line, with Bowling Green finishing the game making 31-of-40 as a team.
  10. Will North Carolina’s relentless attacking of the offensive glass be too much for Florida State to stop? (North Carolina @ Florida State, Saturday, Noon EST) North Carolina has finished each of the past six seasons with an offensive rebounding rate that was among the top 20 in the nation. North Carolina’s current offensive rebounding rate ranks second in the nation and would be the program’s highest percentage under Roy Williams. In Tuesday’s win over Syracuse, UNC grabbed 24 offensive rebounds, a rate that was above 50 percent for the game. Heading into Wednesday’s action, Florida State ranks 236th in the nation in clearing its defensive glass.

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2020-21 RTC16: Week 7

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 11th, 2021

After trailing most of the second-half, Texas rallied from five down in the final two-minutes to escape West Virginia with a win. Shaka Smart’s team has now picked up road wins at both Kansas and West Virginia over the past 10 days. While Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin escaped any damage in the Big Ten this past week, the middle of the conference continued to beat on each other with Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers all losing at least one game over the last seven days. The RTC16 has plenty of consensus on the top 12 teams, while the bottom four spots this week are filled with varying opinions.

Conference Breakdown: Big 12 (5), Big Ten (4), ACC (2), Big East (2), AAC (1), SEC (1), WCC (1)

Risers

  • Gonzaga: While Gonzaga cannot rise any higher than its position at the top of the RTC16, they continued to show just how dangerous they can be. In Saturday’s win over Portland, Joel Ayayi’s triple-double was the first in Gonzaga program history. After averaging 10.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per game a season ago, Ayayi is averaging 11.8 points and a team-best 8.1 boards per game. Flying under the radar behind Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs and Drew Timme, Ayayi is another piece to the puzzle that makes this team special.
  • Clemson: Clemson makes its first appearance in the RTC16 after an overtime win this past week against NC State. Clemson now has five wins over KenPom top-50 ranked opponents, with its lone loss coming on the road against Virginia Tech. After shooting 46.3 percent from the field in his first three years at Clemson, senior Aamir Simms is shooting 56.1 percent while averaging 12.6 points per game.
  • UCLA: After escaping with an overtime win in Tempe, the Bruins led much of the second half in a win against Arizona in Tucson. UCLA is now 5-0 in Pac-12 play, having won 12 of its last 13 league games going back to last season. While the defense still has room to grow, the Bruins have the league’s best offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and three-point percentage. The Bruins sit just outside the top 16, but picked up multiple votes this week.

Fallers

  • Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights had an 0-2 week with a pair of double-figure losses. It was a tough shooting week for Ron Harper and Geo Baker who went a combined 3-of-17 from beyond the arc. The team’s struggles at the free-throw line also continued, as the Knights were a mere 11-of-27 at the line. The struggles allowed Ohio State and Michigan State to outscore Rutgers by 25 points with the clock stopped.
  • Minnesota: Minnesota finished the week 0-2 after dropping both of its games away from home. The Golden Gophers’ offense did not crack the 1.0 PPP mark in either game, while the defense allowed 1.21 and 1.19 points per possession. Through seven Big Ten games, the Minnesota offense now ranks 13th in three-point percentage and last in two-point field-goal percentage.
  • Missouri: Cuonzo Martin’s Missouri club led Mississippi State 43-29 with 18:28 to go in a game last Tuesday night. The Tigers saw State finish the game on a 49-20 run. After committing just one turnover in the first half, Missouri turned it over seven times after the break.

Notable Upcoming Games

  • Tuesday: Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7 PM EST, ESPN
  • Wednesday: Texas Tech @ Texas, 9 PM EST, ESPN2
  • Thursday: San Diego State @ Utah State, 9 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
  • Thursday: Washington State @ UCLA, 5 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
  • Friday: Villanova @ Connecticut, 9 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
  • Saturday: Baylor @ Texas Tech, 4 PM EST, ESPN
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Ten Questions to Consider: Rematches and Road Tests

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 8th, 2021

As the season progresses, teams are beginning to face many different challenges. From injuries to key players, to rematches against conference foes and battles against ongoing trends, teams must adapt and grow to have continued success as the calendar continues to move on. Here are 10 questions I have for the action set to unfold over the next few days:

  1. Can Texas erase last season’s nightmarish trip to Morgantown with a dominant performance of its own? (Texas @ West Virginia, Saturday, 1 PM EST, ESPN) Last season, the Longhorns’ road trip to West Virginia ended with a lopsided 97-59 loss. Texas had a -10 turnover margin and surrendered 23 offensive rebounds. West Virginia is coming off of a win against Oklahoma State, a game in which the Mountaineers trailed by 19 points with 11:15 to go.
  2. After a tale of two halves in the first match-up, can either the Buckeyes or Scarlet Knights assert control for 40 minutes? (Ohio State @ Rutgers, Saturday, Noon EST, Big Ten Network) In the first match-up between these teams on December 23, Rutgers won the first half by 10 points while Ohio State won the second half by 22. One key for Ohio State was its ability to get to the free throw line in the second half, making 17-of-21 after going just 5-of-8 at the line in the first half.
  3. Can Clemson keep up its terrific start by doing something that it has done just once before? (Clemson @ North Carolina, Saturday, 7 PM EST, ESPN) Clemson is currently 9-1, has five wins against the KenPom top 50, and as of Thursday morning, boasts the nation’s best adjusted defensive efficiency rating. Clemson’s defense creates a high-rate of turnovers, an area that can trouble the Tar Heels. The Tigers ended a 40-game losing streak at North Carolina with its win in Chapel Hill last season.
  4. How will the loss of Chris Smith impact the Bruins’ trip to the desert? (UCLA @ Arizona, Saturday, 9 PM EST, ESPN) UCLA learned of Chris Smith’s torn ACL shortly before its game last week against Colorado. This week they begin the desert trip with Arizona State before taking on Arizona on the weekend. The Bruins have won three straight in Tucson for the first time since the early 1980’s. Earning either a split or a sweep in Arizona will tell a lot about UCLA moving forward.
  5. As well as Alabama has been playing, might they have room to get even better? (Alabama @ Auburn, Saturday, Noon EST, ESPN2) The Crimson Tide are 3-0 in SEC play with wins already over Tennessee and Florida. Alabama is shooting 32.3 percent on its three-point attempts for the season, but have been making 39 percent of their attempts in league play. Among those to find their shot has been John Petty, who after starting the year 11-of-39 from deep, has made 10 of his last 20 three-point attempts.
  6. Can the undefeated Drake Bulldogs continue to roll against its stiffest competition? (Loyola Chicago @ Drake, Sunday, 6:30 PM EST, ESPN2) The Drake Bulldogs are a dominant 13-0 with an average margin of victory of 24 points to start the season. Loyola-Chicago’s top-50 KenPom ranking will be the highest of any Drake opponent by roughly 100 spots. For Drake, a trio of former Florida Southwestern players led by Shanquan Hemphill’s 14.2 points per game has been a big reason for the early success of the Bulldogs.
  7. Will this Big Ten battle come down to the stars again? (Minnesota @ Iowa, Sunday, 2:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network) In the Christmas day matchup between Iowa and Minnesota, Minnesota dug itself out of a seven-point deficit in the final minute behind Marcus Carr’s shotmaking which forced overtime and eventually gave the Golden Gophers the win. Carr finished with 30 points and six made threes, while Iowa’s Luka Garza had a game-high 32 points. Garza grabbed 11 offensive rebounds in the game, with Iowa as a team tallying 27.
  8. Can Fatts Russell work his magic on the road or will VCU remain undefeated in the A-10? (Rhode Island @ VCU, Saturday, 2 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) The last time these teams played last season, URI’s Fatts Russell scored 30 points, with 16 coming at the free-throw line. The Rams come in struggling having lost four of six, with one of those wins coming after trailing Saint Joseph’s by four with just 20 seconds to go. VCU comes in having won seven straight games and with its defense creating plenty of frustration with an average of 19.2 forced turnovers over its last five games.
  9. Can UConn take advantage of what has been an ineffective Butler defense? (Connecticut @ Butler, Saturday, 4 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) After having a top-30 ranked effective field-goal defense last season, Butler’s eFG% defense currently ranks among the bottom 50 nationally. If Butler is able to force misses, keeping a Huskies team that ranks among the top five nationally in offensive rebound rate could lead to constant pressure on the Butler defense.
  10. How will UC San Diego fare in its first game in league play at the D-1 level? (UC Irvine @ UC San Diego, Friday, 7 PM EST, ESPN3) The Tritons have played just two games on the year, both coming before Christmas against Saint Katherine of the NAIA. UCSD gets UC Irvine on both Friday and Saturday for its “welcome to the Big West.” UCSD went 30-1 last season and finished the year ranked third in the final D2SIDA rankings
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2020-21 RTC16: Week 6

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on January 4th, 2021

Gonzaaga’s Joel Ayayi had two double-doubles through his first two seasons in Spokane. After an 18-point, 10-rebound performance against San Francisco over the weekend, however, Ayayi now has four double-doubles in 10 games this season. While the likes of Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs and Drew Timme rightfully dominate the headlines, Gonzaga’s spot at #1 in the RTC16 remains firmly gripped thanks in part to its premier depth. #2 Baylor picked up its second KenPom top-100 win on Saturday at Iowa State, and the Bears next six opponents are ranked inside of the top 65. Villanova is currently dealing with COVID issues which include head coach Jay Wright, but chaos within the RTC16 moves the Wildcats up to #3. Here’s a look at the first RTC16 of 2021.

Conference Breakdown: Big Ten (5), Big 12 (4), Big East (2), SEC (2), AAC (1), Pac-12 (1), WCC (1)

Risers

  • Texas: After missing five of its final six three-point attempts in the first-half at Kansas, the Longhorns began the second-half by drilling their first six attempts after the break. While Greg Brown was held to just five points, five of his Longhorn teammates scored in double-figures. Shaka Smart’s second win over Kansas while at Texas sent a statement to the rest of the Big 12 — after sitting at #10 in the RTC16 last week, Texas now appears ranked at #4 in all seven ballots cast this week.
  • Iowa: Since collapsing late against Minnesota, Iowa has compiled a pair of quality wins against Northwestern and at Rutgers. Jordan Bohannon scored in double-figures in each game, including tying his season-high of 24 points against Northwestern. While both the Wildcats and Scarlet Knights each averaged 1.06 points per possession against Iowa, it was an improvement from the 1.32 PPP allowed by the Hawkeyes against Minnesota.
  • Michigan: The Wolverines added a pair of victories against KenPom top-60 teams last week, and they are now 5-0 against top-100 teams, with four of those victories coming by more than 10 points. Freshman Hunter Dickinson is now averaging 16.6 points per game with a 72.6 percent field-goal percentage. After appearing among the top-10 in just a single RTC16 ballot last week, the Wolverines now appear at #5 in over half of the ballots this week.

Fallers

  • Houston: Houston’s fall this week comes after a narrow loss at Tulsa. While the Cougars rebounded with a win over SMU on Sunday, the team learned that Caleb Mills would be stepping away from the team. While Mills has been limited early in the year, he averaged more than 13 points per game last season and made north of 35 percent of his threes.
  • Kansas: The Jayhawks’ 25-point home loss to Texas tied the school’s largest margin of defeat at home (Feb. 1, 1989, vs. Missouri) going back to the 1949-50 season. David McCormack’s struggles continue as he is now shooting just 32.9 percent from the field, a steep drop from the 52.1 percent notch he shot last season.
  • West Virginia: Not only has West Virginia lost two of its last three games, including this past weekend’s matchup with Oklahoma, but the team was dealt the blow of Oscar Tshiebwe leaving the program. Jalen Bridges saw his minutes rise against Oklahoma and while the Mountaineers lost the game, Bridges scored 19 points, made 5-of-6 three-point attempts and showed that he can bring a spark to the WVU offense moving forward.

Notable Upcoming Games

  • Monday: West Virginia @ Oklahoma State, 9 PM EST
  • Tuesday: Rutgers @ Michigan State, 9 PM EST, ESPN2
  • Wednesday: Minnesota @ Michigan, 8:30 PM EST
  • Thursday: USC @ Arizona, 9 PM EST
  • Saturday: Texas @ West Virginia, TBA
  • Sunday: Minnesota @ Iowa, TBA
  • Sunday: Loyola-Chicago @ Drake, 6 PM EST

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2020-21 RTC16: Week 5

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on December 28th, 2020

The gap separating #1 Gonzaga and #2 Baylor from the rest of the country continued to widen this past week as the Bulldogs and Bears went a combined 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 33.8 points. Gonzaga’s offense continuously broke down Virginia’s defense in ways that few teams have in the Tony Bennett era. #3 Kansas backed up its win against Texas Tech with a convincing performance over West Virginia, while #4 Villanova enters this week with COVID-19 concerns, they moved to 3-0 in the Big East with a 17-point victory at Marquette last week.

Conference Breakdown: Big Ten (5), Big 12 (5), Big East (2), SEC (2), AAC (1), WCC (1)

Risers

  • Houston: The Cougars began AAC play with a 26-point win against Temple and overcame a slow start to beat UCF on the road, 63-54. Houston is a perfect 7-0 and is just one of seven teams with an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 20th or better. After being ranked in the top five in just one of eight RTC ballots a week ago, Houston this week earned six top-5 votes.
  • Texas Tech: After last week’s narrow loss at the hands of Kansas, Chris Beard’s squad squared up its Big 12 record with a two-point win against Oklahoma. Terrence Shannon’s team-high 21 points was the second time this season he has scored 20 or more, tying the number of times he did it last season. Last week Texas Tech appeared on just four RTC ballots, this week they made all but one.
  • Creighton: After starting league play with a loss to Marquette, Creighton has rattled off three straight wins, including a five–point win this past week against Xavier. The Bluejays’ balanced attack has seen four or more players score in double-figures in each of the team’s past three games. Creighton rises from out of the RTC rankings and into the top 12.

Fallers

  • Iowa: Despite leading 80-73 with just 44 seconds to go, Iowa could not escape Minnesota with a win. Iowa’s defense saw Minnesota make 17 three-point attempts, none bigger than Marcus Carr’s game-tying three in the final seconds of regulation. After going 2-8 on the road in Big Ten play last season, giving away a game the Hawkeyes seemingly had wrapped up has dropped Iowa to an average RTC ranking that is outside of the top 10.
  • Michigan State: Friday’s loss to Wisconsin dropped Michigan State to 0-2 in Big Ten play for the first time since the 2006-07 season. The 85 points allowed by the Spartans was the fifth-most the school has allowed in regulation in a league game since the 2002 season began. The Spartans fall out of this week’s RTC poll after coming in at #12 last week.

Notable Upcoming Games

  • Monday: Michigan State @ Minnesota, 8 PM EST, Big Ten Network
  • Tuesday: Houston @ Tulsa, 9 PM EST, ESPN 2
  • Wednesday: Tennessee @ Missouri, 9 PM EST, SEC Network
  • Thursday: Colorado @ USC, 9 PM EST, ESPN 2
  • Saturday: Iowa @ Rutgers, 2 PM EST, ESPN 2
  • Saturday: Texas @ Kansas, Noon EST, ESPN 2
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Ten Questions to Consider: Is This the Weekend When the Marquee Matchup Is Played?

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on December 18th, 2020

First it was Gonzaga vs. Baylor, then it was Baylor vs. Texas, and while Villanova vs. Virginia was been wiped away from the schedule, we still have (for now) #1 Gonzaga set to take on #3 Iowa this weekend. Scoreboard operator be ready, a match-up of my preseason National Championship Game teams. Along with the headliner, this weekend also brings the CBS Sports Classic, an in-state battle from Indiana, and other matchups with plenty on the line. Here are 10 questions I have for the action on the court over the next few days.

  1. Will Iowa’s defense be at a level where it can get enough key stops to get by Gonzaga? (Gonzaga vs. Iowa, Saturday, Noon EST, CBS) KenPom data shows that in Iowa’s first six games, four of its opponents have had an offensive efficiency ranking of 275 or worse. Four opponents have had an effective field-goal percentage ranking of 200 or worse and only Western Illinois has had a turnover rate ranking better than the national average. Entering Thursday, Gonzaga is second in offensive efficiency, tenth in eFG%, and among the top 75 in turnover rate. While Luka Garza will get his, Iowa will need to do more than just score to beat Gonzaga.
  2. Will David Johnson continue his trend of extending his range beyond the three-point line? (Louisville vs. Wisconsin, Saturday, Noon EST, ESPN 2) Radford transfer Carlik Jones has had no problems fitting in with Louisville having scored 15 or more in each Cardinal game to date. Alongside Jones is David Johnson. Johnson is coming off of back-to-back games with at least 17 points. After attempting more than two three-point attempts in just a pair of games last season, Johnson has already done so three times through four games.
  3. Can the Buckeyes get by the Bruins if they remain shorthanded? (UCLA vs. Ohio State, Saturday, 4:15 PM EST, CBS) Ohio State’s EJ Liddell (15.5 PPG) has missed back-to-back games with an undisclosed non-COVID-19 related illness. In addition to Liddell, Harvard transfer Seth Towns has yet to hit the floor as he recovers from an injury. The Buckeyes feasted on poor defenses early in the year before struggling against Purdue on Wednesday. It’s a UCLA team that in many metric areas resembles Purdue defensively.
  4. Is the potential matchup between Ayo Dosunmu and Ron Harper the best matchup on Sunday across all sports? (Illinois @ Rutgers, Sunday, 1 PM EST, ESPN 2) Dosunmu, a preseason first-team All-American, has gotten off to a stellar start averaging 24 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. For Rutgers, Ron Harper Jr. has been equally fantastic putting in 23.2 points and 7 rebounds per game. Harper already has three games this season with five made three-pointers, having made 16 of his 32 three-point attempts on the season.
  5. One more time…did Kentucky turn a corner in the second-half against Notre Dame? (North Carolina vs. Kentucky, Saturday, 2 PM EST, CBS) Yes, Kentucky trailed Notre Dame by as many 24 points just ten minutes into its most recent game. Yes, the game was at Rupp and the Wildcats season looked dead on the spot. Then the ‘Cats outscored Notre Dame by 21 in the second-half and had a chance to win the game at the buzzer. This matchup features a pair of teams who are similar in many ways, both facing shooting and turnover woes, while relying on attacking the glass.
  6. Is Minnesota staring at a must-win game in mid-December? (Saint Louis @ Minnesota, Sunday, 8:30 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) The Golden Gophers sit at 6-1, but its best win comes against a 1-5 Boston College team. Saint Louis, a top-40 KenPom team begins a stretch of eight consecutive games against teams ranked in the top 40, including a back-to-back of Iowa and Michigan State after the Billikens leave Minnesota.
  7. Who can win around the rim in a battle of physical teams? (Marquette @ Xavier, Sunday, 2 PM EST, Fox Sports 1) As of Thursday, Hoop-Math has both the Marquette and Xavier defenses among the top-25 in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim. Offensively, Xavier is shooting 73.2% on attempts near the rim, which ranks among the top-25 nationally. Xavier’s four players who average north of ten points per game are a combined 49-of-65 (75.4%) on FGA’s at the rim.
  8. Can Butler’s defense show rapid in-week improvements? (Indiana vs. Butler, Saturday, 11:30 AM EST, Fox Sports 1) After opening the season on November 25, Butler played just its second game of the year on Wednesday in an 85-66 loss against Villanova. While the Bulldogs scored 1 point-per-possession, shot 50% on their two-point attempts, and made 46.7% of their three-point attempts, it was their defense that was torched by Villanova yet again surrendering 1.29 PPP.
  9. Which style of play wins the day in Tuscaloosa? (Western Kentucky @ Alabama, Saturday, 2 PM EST, ESPNU) After being one of the most up-tempo teams in the country a year ago, Nate Oats’ Alabama squad is again pushing the tempo at every opportunity. For Rick Stasnbury’s Hilltoppers team, teams have tried to attack WKU early to avoid playing offense against the defensive menace that is Charles Bassey. While Bassey is a force down low, WKU has seen opponents make 44.7% of their three-point attempts. Alabama is a team that is shooting below 30% from deep, with John Petty struggling, having made just 28% of his attempts following last season in which he made 44% of his 193 attempts.
  10. As good as San Diego State has been, might they have room to get even better? (BYU @ San Diego State, Friday, 5 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) The Aztecs already sport convincing wins against both UCLA and Arizona State. Brian Dutcher’s team has a top 20 defense and a top 50 offense. The team’s three-point percentage is down 5.6% from last season, with Matt Mitchell’s slow start from deep having some impact on the team. If Mitchell can return near to the 39% he shot last season, it’s an Aztec team loaded with weapons. In addition to Mitchell, SDSU’s pair of Terrell Gomez and Jordan Schakel have the second and third best three-point percentage of remaining college players that have attempted 300 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2018 season.

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