Set Your TiVo: 12.13.11

Posted by bmulvihill on December 13th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

After a flurry of games to start the season, most teams slow things down a bit as students head into finals and winter break.  There are still some intriguing matches during the week, particularly a mid-major rematch that thrilled fans just three weeks ago.  Let’s get to the action.

#14 Wisconsin at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM EST on ESPN3 (***)

  • After back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Marquette, Wisconsin has bounced back with wins against Wisconsin-Green Bay and UNLV. The Badgers continue to play the slowest basketball in the country at 59 possessions per game. Their style isn’t for everybody, but it certainly creates problems for opposing teams, particularly on the offensive end. Bo Ryan’s club leads the nation in defensive efficiency and is currently only allowing teams to shoot 36.1% from two and 24.6% from three. With very little in the way of offensive firepower, Milwaukee’s biggest issue during the game will be finding a way to score on the rock solid UW defense.
  • Milwaukee possess its own solid defense as well. They rank 14th in the nation in three-point defense, allowing teams to shoot only 25% from downtown. Three-pointers are a significant part of the Badger offense, so it will be interesting to see if Milwaukee can continue to defend the perimeter against a team that shoots a hefty amount of three’s at a 40% conversion rate. It will be imperative for the Panther’s to limit second chance points for the Badgers, as well. Wisconsin had its lowest offensive rebounding rates of the season in its two losses.
  • Milwaukee needs to find offense quickly or this game will turn into a blow-out. The Badgers do not make mistakes, they defend the ball extremely well, and they hit the defensive boards really hard. The Panthers will have to stay patient and take smart shots near the basket.  If you see the Panthers getting frustrated on offense and taking ill-advised shots, they are in for a long night.

Belmont and Middle Tennessee Match Up for a Second Time in Three Weeks (Belmont Sports)

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Set Your TiVo: 12.08.11

Posted by bmulvihill on December 8th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Two very interesting games on the docket tonight.  An upstart Ivy League team goes against the defending champs while a good old fashion slugfest is brewing in Wichita.  Let’s get to the action.

Huggins and the Mountaineers will be in a street fight against Kansas State tonight.

#19 Harvard at #9 Connecticut – 7 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)

  • Harvard and Connecticut have two common opponents – Central Florida and Florida State. Tommy Amaker’s squad beat both teams while the Huskies lost to Central Florida and needed overtime to beat FSU. If you look at the statistics for all four games, the difference was Harvard’s ability to get to the line. Their free throw rate was 54.5% against the Seminoles and a mind boggling 94.6% against UCF. Harvard sports a sub-50% eFG, so free throws are very important to their offensive effectiveness. Unfortunately for Harvard, Connecticut is third in the nation at keeping teams off the line. They just don’t foul. Keep a close eye on the Crimson’s free throw attempts. They must get to the line to win this game.
  • Connecticut must play this game from the inside out. Currently, Harvard is in the top ten in fewest three-point shot attempts allowed. Look for Jim Calhoun’s squad to feed 6’11” freshman center Andre Drummond early and often. Unfortunately, Drummond is hitting less than 50% of his two-point attempts. Regardless, he must take advantage of his height in this game to help give guards Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier room to shoot on the outside. Pay close attention to the number of touches Drummond is getting in the first half. If he’s getting the ball on the inside and scoring, causing the Harvard defense to come off the perimeter or even double team, the Huskies will have set themselves up for a win.
  • The game will hinge on Harvard’s ability to defend the paint and still put pressure on the outside shooters like they have thus far in the season. Drummond’s size will make that extremely difficult. If the Crimson expect to win, they will have to own the defensive boards and grab all of Drummond’s misses. Offensive boards by the Huskies will kill Amaker’s team. If Drummond is shooting over 50% and drawing double teams thereby creating room for the Huskies backcourt to make shots, Calhoun and crew will pick up a win against a Harvard team they missed in the Bahamas.
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Set Your TiVo: The Jimmy V Classic Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on December 6th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The V Foundation has been able to give over $90 million to more than 100 cancer research facilities nationwide since the organization was founded in 1993. Tonight means way more than college basketball. So while you are watching the games tonight at home, take a minute to remember what these folks are doing for our friends and family. Let’s take a look at the hoops action this evening at the Jimmy V Classic in NYC.

Marcus Denmon And The Tigers Kick Off the Jimmy V Classic in NYC (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

#10 Missouri vs Villanova – 7 PM EST on ESPN HD (***)

  • Missouri is deadly accurate from the floor. Through seven games, the Tigers are shooting 58.2% from two and 43% from three. Look for Mizzou guards Marcus Denmon and Kim English to continue their hot shooting against a Villanova team that ranks 108th in effective field goal defense. Nova was recently beat-up by another excellent shooting team in the St. Louis Billikens. If Jay Wright does not address his team’s field goal defense quickly, Missouri is going to blow out the Wildcats just like they have every other opponent this season.
  • Villanova has a distinct height advantage against Missouri. If Wright’s club is to have any chance in this game, they are going to have to use that height and grab all the offensive rebounds they possibly can. Missouri’s speed and accuracy on offense puts pressure on the opposing offense to not have any empty possessions. Keep an eye Wildcats’ 6’10” forward Mouphtaou Yarou on the inside. Yarou needs to own the offensive boards. If Villanova is missing shots against an aggressive Tiger defense and not grabbing offensive boards, the game will be over quickly for Wright’s team.
  • Missouri’s speed, accuracy, and experience will prove to be the difference in this game. Thus far, Villanova has not proven they have a defense to stop a team that shoots as well as Mizzou. If Yarou and the rest of the Wildcats can grab offensive boards, they will have a chance but ultimately the pressure Denmon and English put on the team will be too much.

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Set Your TiVo: 12.01.11

Posted by bmulvihill on December 1st, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The conference challenges roll on as the Big East / SEC Challenge gets started with two games at home for the SEC.  Let’s take a look at the action for Thursday night.

John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats face another young team in St. John's in the Big East / SEC Challenge

St. John’s at #1 Kentucky – 7:30PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

  • After a quick 3-0 start, St. John’s has dropped its last three out of four including a home loss to Northeastern. With such a young team and Steve Lavin’s health situation, Red Storm fans should expect this type of up and down play all season. The Red Storm have four starters scoring in double figures, but their bench is extremely thin. When faced with an athletic, hard-charging team like Kentucky fatigue will probably be a factor by the second half. While the Red Storm shoots a very respectable 54% from two, their three-point shooting is an abysmal 27.7%.  Look for Kentucky to pack the lane and clean up the defensive boards.
  • Kentucky’s defense has been incredible all year. Granted the Wildcats have not faced an extremely difficult schedule thus far, they are still holding teams to an eFG of 36%. Additionally, their block rate is an astronomical 25%. If St. John’s continues to struggle from outside the arc and cannot extend the Wildcat defense, expect a block party in Lexington. The UK offense is firing on all cylinders as well. John Calipari’s team has five players averaging double figures and key contributors off the bench in Kyle Wiltjer and Eloy Vargas. If Kentucky continues to play offense and defense like they have thus far, this game will not be close.
  • Playing in Lexington is a tall task for any team. However, playing without your coach (Lavin needs more time to recover from prostate surgery) and playing with such a young team makes the task nearly impossible. While St. John’s may be able to keep the game close for a short period of time on sheer athleticism, expect this one to get ugly by the second half.
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Set Your TiVo: 11.29.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 29th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge kicks off tonight with several outstanding games.  There are two games in particular that every college hoops fan should enjoy thoroughly.  Let’s go ahead and break down the action.

Can Jared Sullinger get Ohio State a marquee win against Duke in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge? (Al Messerschmidt/Getty)

#15 Michigan at Virginia – 7 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)

  • The biggest take away from Maui for the Wolverines was freshman point guard Trey Burke’s ability to run the Wolverine offense. Michigan will need Burke to continue to drive the offense against a very good Virginia defense. John Beilein’s team currently is the #1 team in the country in two-point field goal percentage (62.8%). However, the team is struggling from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. They are also struggling to get to the line. This is probably a result of their frequent three-point attempts (39% of their shots come from downtown). In what may shape up to be a half-court battle, Michigan must find a way to get to the line more frequently. If Michigan is able to reduce their three-point shots like they did against UCLA and drive the ball to the lane with Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr., the team will be on its way to a win against the Cavaliers.
  • Virginia’s defense has been nothing short of spectacular this year. They are holding teams to an effective field goal percentage of 37%, which is good for fifth in the nation. Expect the Cavalier’s defense to force the Wolverines to shoot from the outside by playing zone. On the other side of the ball, the Virginia offense runs on free throws. If they are not getting to the line, they will have a difficult time winning the game. This is mostly because Tony Bennett’s team is struggling on the offensive glass and is turning the ball over on almost 22% of their possessions. Since the Cavaliers play at a slow pace, poor offensive rebounding and turnovers result in empty possessions and offensive inefficiency. They will have to improve in both areas to beat Michigan.
  • The Cavaliers have the best defense that Michigan has faced thus far and the Wolverines have the best offense Virginia has faced thus far. The game will come down to which team executes its strength in the half-court more effectively. If you see Virginia forcing Michigan to shoot a lot from the outside, they will have a better shot at winning. If the Maize and Blue is finding smart shots from inside the arc and pulling down the offensive boards, expect them to win in a slugfest.
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Set Your Tivo: Turkey Day Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 24th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Thanksgiving is for food, family, and football.  But around these parts, we like to throw a big heaping pile of college hoops on our plate also.  Keep an eye on these games as you sit around the table with your loved ones.  Happy Thanksgiving from RTC!

Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles Look Solid on Defense Once Again

#19 Florida State vs. Massachusetts  – 4:30PM EST on Versus (**)

  • Florida State’s defense is picking-up right where it left off last season. While the Seminoles have not played any offensive juggernauts to this point in the season, they are still holding teams to an impossibly low .86 points per possession (adjusted). Keep an eye on the perimeter defense, as FSU’s set of 6’5” guards, Michael Snaer and Delvidas Dulkys, will likely have to deal with UMass’s 5’11” point guard Chaz Williams. Williams is currently lighting things up at 17 points per game and hitting 42% of his three-point shots. Watch how the length of Snaer and Dulkys affects Williams’ shot throughout the night.
  • Not to be outdone, Massachusetts brings its own set of defensive credentials into this game, ranking in the top ten in both block rate and turnover rate. Florida State has had trouble with turning the ball over this season. Since scoring will be difficult against the Seminoles, Derek Kellogg’s team needs to figure out a way to continue to create turnovers to give his offense more opportunities to score. They have to do this without fouling, however. Teams are getting to the line frequently against UMass (50% FT rate). The Seminole offense thrives on free throws. If you see FSU in the bonus early in either half, you know things are not going well for Massachusetts.
  • This game is shaping up to be a defensive battle. The game will hinge on UMass’s ability to deal with the ‘Noles length in the front court. Williams needs to figure out a way to get his shot off on offense and defend players much larger than him. Again, if he and the rest of the Minutemen can create steals without fouling, they have a shot in this game. However, if FSU plays their usual lights out defense and continue to shoot the ball well, they will win.
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Set Your TiVo: 11.23.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 23rd, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

If you’re sad the Maui Invitational is coming to an end today, fear not as another pre-season tourney is getting started in New York City.  The NIT Season Tip-Off gets going with some interesting power conference match-ups.  Just don’t forget to catch the late night Maui championship between two of the heaviest heavyweights in the land.  It should be a fun night of hoops on Thanksgiving Eve.

Bill Self Will Need to Figure Out a Way to Stop a Red Hot Duke Team in the Maui Invitational Championship

Oklahoma State vs. Stanford – 7 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

  • Oklahoma State brings a deep squad into the game with ten players averaging double-digit minutes.  From a depth standpoint, they match-up well against a Cardinal team that also has ten players averaging double-digit minutes. Even with a deep bench, the play of one guy, freshman guard Le’Bryan Nash, may dictate how the Cowboys perform not only in this contest but throughout the season. He is going to have to pick-up his play against Stanford however as he is only shooting 33% from the field. The entire team is shooting under 50% for the season, which should be a major concern for coach Travis Ford. If his team cannot improve their shooting against Stanford, the Cowboys will be leaving Madison Square Garden with a loss.
  • Much like Oklahoma State, the Cardinal have not faced many tough defenses this season. However, they are capitalizing on the situation and making 57.5% of their two-point shots. Look for coach Johnny Dawkins to bring size off his bench to take advantage of Oklahoma State’s lack of height. The Cowboys will have to counter with 6’11” center Phillip Jurick to maintain control of the paint. If Stanford can continue its hot shooting in the paint and take advantage of the size on their bench, they can beat Oklahoma State.
  • Production from the bench will be the key factor in determining the outcome of this game. Both teams get a significant amount of support from their benches. The team with more points off the bench should win. Also, keep an eye on free throws. Both teams are shooting below 65% on the season. A few made free throws down the stretch could make a huge difference in what looks like a close contest between two mid-pack, major conference teams.

#5 Syracuse vs. Virginia Tech – 9:30PM EST on ESPN2 HD (***)

  • Syracuse looks to be running on all cylinders through four games this season. The competition has not been difficult, but they have blown out each team. Their length and athleticism has led to an impressive start on defense, as they lead the country in block shot percentage and rank seventh in turnover percentage. Virginia Tech has to be very cognizant of turnovers against the Orange because the Hokies have been prone to coughing the ball up so far this season. The long arms of Jim Boeheim’s team will create all kinds of issues for Va Tech not only on defense, but also on the offensive boards.
  • The Hokies have playing solid basketball thus far. Syracuse will be their toughest test of the season though. Seth Greenburg’s team is not a short team by any standard so it will be interesting to see how it matches up against the Syracuse length both on offense and defense. Interestingly, Virginia Tech is getting beat up on the boards. If they do not continue their hot shooting, which will be difficult against Syracuse, and cannot grab their misses, it will be long night for the kids from Blacksburg.
  • Turnovers will be a huge part of this game. Syracuse will be creating them and Virginia Tech needs to protect against them. However, the key will be how Virginia Tech’s solid half-court defense will handle Syracuse’s smart two-point shooting. If Syracuse is hitting its two-point shots early and dominating the offensive boards, they should have no problem winning.

#15 Kansas vs. #6 Duke – 10 PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

  • Duke continues to look incredibly difficult to defend. They beat Michigan in the Maui Invitational semifinals with incredible outside shooting. It is unlikely they can continue to hit over 50% of their three point shots, but until a defense proves otherwise, the Blue Devils look unstoppable from downtown. They face a solid, scrambling Kansas defense that had been defending the three point shot well until they allowed UCLA to hit 8 of 14 from deep last night. If Duke is allowed to sit outside and hit threes like that, the Jayhawks will go down fast.
  • Kansas has been relying heavily on Thomas Robinson thus far. It was good to see guards Elijah Johnson, Tyshawn Taylor, and Travis Releford pick-up some of the slack in the first half against UCLA when Robinson was not much of a factor.  Bill Self’s team must continue to spread the ball around and get offensive production from more than just Robinson if they want to beat the Blue Devils.
  • This game hinges on the Jayhawk defense and its ability to lock down on the Duke weapons. It is a tall task for any team at this point because scoring is coming from all over the court for Mike Krzyzewski’s team. Look for the Jayhawks to put a ton of pressure on the defensive perimeter to slow down the onslaught of three pointers. If they are able to do that, it will at least give them a chance. Unfortunately for Kansas, Duke has slashers like Austin Rivers and big men like the Plumlee brothers to look to if the shots are not falling from outside.

The Official RTC Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

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Set Your TiVo: 11.22.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 22nd, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

The teams in Maui swap opponents to create an interesting rivalry game and a Tournament rematch, while the CBE Classic wraps-up as we head to Turkey Day.  Let’s take a look at what you should be watching in today’s action.

#13 Memphis vs Tennessee – 2 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

Tennessee and Head Coach Cuonzo Martin Face In-State Rival Memphis All The Way in Maui

  • Memphis and Tennessee take a Volunteer State rivalry all the way to the islands in the loser’s bracket of the Maui Invitational. In two games this season, Memphis has been manhandled on the boards by Belmont and Michigan. This could be problematic against a Tennessee team that is proving to be scrappy and capable of grabbing rebounds and loose balls. However, much like Duke, the Tigers have better athletes and more scoring options than the Volunteers. Josh Pastner’s team will have to do a better job picking good shots though, as they shot just 33% from the field against Michigan. Look for the Memphis guards to exploit the three-point shot like Duke did against the Volunteers early in the game.
  • Tennessee went from hitting just under 50% of its three-point shots in its opening two games to missing all eight of its threes against Duke. Expect Memphis to put the same kind of pressure on the Volunteer perimeter defense with its athletic backcourt. Tennessee cannot miss easy lay-ups like it did against Duke if it expects to win this game. Michigan showed that Memphis can be exploited inside the arc and they must covert those shots.
  • The Vols are certainly still trying to find their legs under new coach Cuonzo Martin and they will be facing another very athletic team in Memphis today. The Tigers will try to keep the game up-tempo to take advantage of its superior guard play. If they are successful at wearing out the Volunteers and defending the perimeter like the Blue Devils did, it will be very difficult for Martin’s team to defeat its in-state rival.

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Set Your TiVo: Maui Edition

Posted by bmulvihill on November 21st, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

ESPN kicks off Feast Week with a trip to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational.  The field is loaded and things get started today with several recent national championship teams.  Let’s dig into the action.

Memphis vs. Michigan – 3:00 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (***) (simulcast on RTC Live)

John Beilein will Loosen Up His Tie Against Memphis to Tip Off the Maui Invitational

  • Memphis dominated an experienced Belmont team in their first and only game of the season thus far.  The Tigers shot a blistering 64.7% eFG, and they will be facing a Wolverine team that is allowing over 50% shooting from inside the arc.  Look for Josh Pastner’s team to take the ball to the hole frequently with sophomore guards Will Barton and Joe Jackson leading the way.
  • While Michigan’s field goal defense is allowing teams to shoot over 50% from inside, they are forcing teams to turn the ball over on a superb 36.8% of their possessions (first in the nation).  However, Memphis only turned the ball over nine times against a tough Belmont team that is known for creating turnovers.  Like Memphis, the Wolverines have gotten off to a hot shooting start inside the arc (60.8%).  Unfortunately nearly half of their shots are coming from three-point land and they are only hitting 28.9% of them.  Wolverine guards Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Zack Novak, and Stu Douglas are going to have to hit some threes to prevent Memphis from just packing the lane on defense.
  • This game hinges on Michigan’s ability to extend the defense and grab offensive rebounds.  Memphis allowed Belmont to grab too many of its offensive rebounding opportunities.  If the Wolverines can pull the Tiger defense out with a few made three-point shots and open up the lane, look for Michigan to cash in on the offensive glass.  If John Beilein’s team continues to miss from outside, though, it will be difficult to pull the Memphis defense away from the lane, which will allow the more athletic Tigers to own the inside.

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Set Your TiVo: 11.17.11

Posted by bmulvihill on November 17th, 2011

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Now that you have fully recovered from ESPN’s 24 Hours of Hoops Marathon, it’s time to jump into the first of the exotic preseason tournaments.  The Puerto Rico Tip-Off gets going today, along with the big boys’ rounds of the 2K Sports Classic benefiting Coaches vs. Cancer.  Let’s take a look at the action.

Maryland vs. #16 Alabama – 5:00 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (**)

JaMychal Green and Anthony Grant Lead Alabama into the Puerto Rico Tip-Off

  • Rarely do you see a team hit zero three-point shots and still win a game.  However, that is exactly what Maryland did in its first game of the season against UNC-Wilmington.  The Terps finished 0-9 from downtown, but managed to drain 58% of its twos.  Mark Turgeon’s squad is going to have a tough time hitting such a high percentage of shots inside the arc against Alabama’s vaunted defense.  While Terp forwards James Padgett and Ashton Pankey both scored in double figures in the opener, neither consistently demands enough attention to take scoring pressure off the guards.  Sophomore guard Terrell Stoglin needs to have another big game in order for the Terrapins to have a chance.  If the Alabama defense can lock him up, there is not enough fire power elsewhere on Turgeon’s team to beat the Crimson Tide.
  • Alabama is all about defense.  They picked up right where they left off last year giving up only 0.8 points per possession through their first two games of the season.  However, senior forward JaMychal Green should not be overlooked as a big time offensive threat.  Green is averaging 18 points per game in only 25 minutes of action per night.  Coach Anthony Grant’s team needs to improve its shooting, though.  Alabama shot under 50% eFG in 20 of it’s 37 games last season and that trend is continuing again this season.  While they finished a remarkable 10-10 in those games because of a stellar defense, it’s very difficult for a team to have major success shooting under 50% eFG.  If the Tide is hitting more than half of its shots against Maryland, the game will not be close.
  • This game hinges on Maryland’s ability to create baskets in transition.  Maryland plays at a much faster pace than Alabama.  If they get locked down in a halfcourt match-up with the Crimson Tide defense, the Terps’ offense will bog down because they do not have enough weapons in the low post.  The team that dictates the pace and style of this game will ultimately win.

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