Over the summer, Kentucky coach John Calipari quipped that the additions of Texas A&M and Missouri made the SEC stronger than ever, adding that the league would get seven teams into the NCAA Tournament this season. Then again, Calipari probably didn’t anticipate his Wildcats would have four losses in non-conference play. He also probably never imagined the number of embarrassing losses for the conference would far exceed the quality wins within the league. And he likely never dreamed that the conference as a whole would be arguably weaker than the Mountain West, Pac-12, Atlantic 10, and Missouri Valley. Forget seven teams making the NCAA Tournament, the SEC will be lucky to get four in the Big Dance after a sub-par non-conference slate.

John Calipari was wrong about the SEC, but just how wrong was he?

The SEC has suffered a number of embarrassing losses during non-conference play. (all RPI references using TeamRankings.com) Vanderbilt lost to Marist (RPI #236). Winthrop (RPI #149) beat Auburn. Elon (#RPI 84) defeated South Carolina. Youngstown State (RPI #195) beat Georgia. Alabama dropped one to Mercer (RPI #150). Mississippi State lost to Troy (RPI #309). Then the Bulldogs turned around and lost to Alabama A&M (RPI #280). Unfortunately, the damage is done. The perception is that the SEC is weak. There’s nothing any team can do about that now. And that viewpoint will come back to haunt the league on Selection Sunday. Even if a couple of teams make a run in conference play, they will do it against SEC teams (see: perception of SEC, three sentences prior). The SEC needed quality wins, and well, it missed its chance.

The bottom of the league isn’t solely at fault. Even the top of the conference failed expectations, albeit unfair and outlandish ones. Kentucky was supposed to win the league this year. Sure, the Cats were reloading after sending six players to the NBA, but that’s life with Calipari at the helm. Outlandish expectations are certainly a testament to the outstanding work he’s done since arriving in Lexington.  In spite of the departures, Kentucky is still the most talented team in the SEC, yet Cal’s Wildcats are currently fifth in the SEC RPI standings. UK lost to Duke, Notre Dame, Baylor, and Louisville. All good or great teams, no doubt, but that leaves the Big Blue with a loss against four of the five quality teams (exception: Maryland, RPI #59) it faced. Kentucky will surely get into the NCAA Tournament, but its seeding becomes a major question mark. And if the SEC’s flagship program’s future is in doubt, what does that mean for the rest of the conference?

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1. The New Jersey Nets fired coach Avery Johnson on Thursday, thus beginning the hunt for a replacement, and, of course, an established college coach is always a viable option. Cue the rumors of Kentucky coach John Calipari’s departure to the NBA. It is an annual rite of passage at this point, but Calipari and Kentucky have been there and done that. And he did it in New Jersey to boot. It just does not seem possible that he would leave at this point for another try in the big leagues, and definitely not a return to the same franchise. By the way, Calipari will have Kentucky in the hunt for another National Championship next year. He’s a coach made for the college game, and call me naive, but I think he finishes his career in Lexington.
2. Frank Martin continues to rack up some top shelf talent at South Carolina. With a strong recruiting class already set for 2013, Martin secured a commitment from Villanova transfer Ty Johnson. Johnson is a 6’3″ guard who averaged 3.3 points and 2.0 assists per game in 32 games of action in his freshman season, but will fill a need at point guard for the Gamecocks when he becomes eligible in December 2013. Martin is stockpiling talent in Columbia since his arrival this offseaso — in addition to Johnson, a top-75 recruit coming out of high school, Martin has also collected commitments from five-star Sindarius Thornwell, three-star center Desmond Ringer, and the son of former Gamecock star BJ McKie, guard Justin McKie. With improved talent in Columbia, things could turn around fairly quickly for South Carolina in the next several years.
3. LSU guard Anthony Hickey spent three games on the sidelines for disciplinary reasons earlier in the year, and now he will be out for a fourth game because of another violation. “Anthony has a lot of improvement to do in a lot of areas not only on the floor but off as well,” Tigers coach Johnny Jones said. “We have to try to help him develop.” Hickey is averaging 10.3 points and a national best 3.5 steals per game, but the point guard duties will be handed off to junior Andre Stringer. This string of suspensions isn’t the first time Hickey has landed in the dog house for various LSU coaches, and it likely won’t be the last.
4. Frank Haith’s Missouri Tigers are hitting their stride with big victories over Illinois and Virginia Commonwealth, but have recently suffered a minor setback as reserve power forward Tony Criswell will miss tonight’s UCLA game with a broken finger. Criswell is among the nation’s best offensive rebounders, with a 13.7% offensive rebounding rate. The Tigers are somewhat thin in the frontcourt beyond their starters Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers, so Haith may choose to play small ball in Criswell’s absence with a three- or four-guard lineup. It’s not like Mizzou hasn’t gone small before, and been quite successful.
5. Kentucky guard Archie Goodwin went 4-of-17 from the field on Saturday in the Cats’ win over Marshall, but John Calipari needs Goodwin to make the easy ones against Louisville. Goodwin missed several shots at the rim against the Thundering Herd, leaving Calipari searching for answers. “I was disappointed, he missed four layups. I think he’s flippin’, Rod (Strickland) thinks he’s looking down, he’s not seeing the basket, he’s looking up at the last moment to shoot it. I don’t know what it is, I’ll watch the tape, see if I can figure out.” Expect Cal and Goodwin to watch the tape and figure it out quickly. Regardless, Calipari does not have much depth to put Goodwin on the bench if it happens again.

1. Did anybody really think Louisville center Gorgui Dieng wouldn’t play against Kentucky? Cardinals head coach Rick Pitino originally said Dieng wouldn’t play in the nationally-televised clash with Kentucky this Saturday — just last week, Pitino said, “Gorgui’s latest exam with the doctor didn’t go as well as my optimism was. The last X-ray we thought it would be healed, and it was not.” What a difference a week makes? Dieng recently practiced for the first time since injuring his wrist on November 23, and now Pitino and Dieng are hopeful he will be in the lineup to play against Kentucky’s big guys. “We’ll see how it goes today,” Pitino said. “And then we’ll make a decision.” The Kentucky and Louisville rivalry just wouldn’t be the same without a little pregame drama. Kentucky’s young bigs could struggle against a shot-blocking presence who rebounds as well as Dieng.
2. Of course we will be inundated with Kentucky and Louisville previews this week to prepare for one of the biggest non-conference games on the slate, but if you’re looking for the key to the game it is probably in Kentucky’s defense. And thankfully, A Sea of Blue has us covered with an in-depth look at the Wildcats’ defense this year. As for the long and short of it, Kentucky is preventing opponents from shooting at the rim and not allowing three-point looks at a rate similar to last year’s team. That’s definitely a good thing going into a contest against a team that loves the three. Can Kentucky force Peyton Siva and Russ Smith to take contested shots from deep within the mid-range area? That question just might decide the game.
3. Missouri beat its other border rival Illinois last weekend, and the Tigers are not taking a break to celebrate. Instead, Mizzou spent Christmas Day practicing instead of taking time off to be with family. “Our normal prep work is three days before a game,” head coach Frank Haith said. “Tomorrow’s a travel day, but we will get in in the morning and get some work done before we get on the plane, and then obviously, the day before when we get there, it’s a lot of shooting. That’s normal practice for us in terms of our prep work to get ready for a game.” Haith plans to give the team some time off after its game Friday against UCLA, which is great news for the players’ families who can buy them presents at half off in those day-after-Christmas sales.
4. Laurence Bowers was named SEC player of the week for his outstanding performance against Illinois, finally getting some kudos from outside of the state of Missouri. But of course, he’s still getting some praise from within Columbia too. “He’s the truth; he can do it all,” said senior forward Alex Oriakhi. “It’s just a joy to play with him.” Bowers leads the team in scoring and field goal percentage and is second in rebounding average. His offensive rating and effective field goal percentage are both the highest of his career and among the best in the nation while taking almost 30 percent of the Tigers’ shots. Bowers’ continued development alongside Oriakhi in the post could be the key to Mizzou staying near the top of the SEC in its first season.
5. What would the Christmas season be without dancing elves? And not just any dancing elves — this video has dancing elves with Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin’s head. Enjoy and happy holidays.

1. Happy holidays everyone. While Ole Miss was the lone SEC team in action on Christmas Day, all of the other teams spent time at home with their families. When Kentucky players in particular looked under the tree, they found that Santa was especially good to the Wildcats. Kentucky basketball didn\’t receive new socks or a tacky Christmas sweater, rather a brand new state of the art locker room at Rupp Arena. The new basketball suite, funded by private donors, includes a lounge, a dining area, a locker room, cold and hot tubs, a training room, a video room, and coaches\’ offices. And you thought your presents this year were cool?
2. Missouri point guard Phil Pressey shot a forgettable 3-of-19 from the field on Saturday in the Tigers\’ win over Illinois, but he was still the most important player on the court. Pressey fueled Mizzou in other areas with 11 assists and seven rebounds. “He’s a valuable guy,” Missouri coach Frank Haith said. “Obviously he was at a level where I couldn’t afford to take him out.” Even though he missed his first 15 shots, Pressey played all but about one minute. His play against the Illini shows just how valuable Pressey is for Haith\’s squad, and he doesn\’t have to score a lot of points to remain the team\’s key cog.
3. After a banner year in 2011-12 when he shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc, Florida guard Kenny Boynton is experiencing the worst shooting slump of his four-year career at Florida. Boynton is just 17-of-61 from behind the arc on the season, going 1-of-5 in the Gators\’ most recent loss to Kansas State. But Boynton isn\’t letting the dry spell get to him. “I’m good,” Boynton said. “I’m not pressing. I know it’s going to come. Coach (Billy Donovan) told me to take open looks and that’s pretty much what I’ve been trying to do.” The slump hasn\’t affected all of his shooting, though. Boynton\’s free throw rate sits at 85 percent, the highest such clip of his career.
4. Nerlens Noel has been one of the most reliable players for Kentucky\’s John Calipari, and he probably owes a lot of his toughness to his older brothers. Home pickup games with Noel\’s big brothers, both of whom are Division I football players, prepared him to absorb contact when going up around the rim. Older brother Rodman Noel said the siblings were rough on Nerlens \”to make him tougher.  At first, he didn\’t like how we operated things with him. He always used to tell my mom and complain. Over time, he started to adapt to it.\” The younger Noel is seeing the benefits of those backyard pickup games by getting to the free throw line regularly for 45 attempts already this season. But as far as running to tell his mom? \”Nah, nah,\” he said. \”I\’d never go to my mom. I was little, so I\’d start whining and stuff. And I wouldn\’t give them the ball back till I got the call.\”
5. Alabama is down to eight scholarship players, but that is no excuse for Crimson Tide coach Anthony Grant. After the Tide suffered a collapse in a seven-point loss to Mercer over the weekend — a team with an RPI of #228 — Grant had a meltdown of his own. “Let’s just be real about it,” he said. “We didn’t show up to play for 40 minutes today. We didn’t… Let’s not sugarcoat it.” Grant knows this loss was because of effort. “You saw the game. You see the results: 50-50 balls, when you get out-hustled to, that has nothing to do with talent. When you have breakdown after breakdown that cause bad offensive possessions, or for them to get success on their offensive end… That was more effort, focus and pride in performance. It’s frustrating right now as a coach to admit that. It’s embarrassing, really, to admit that.” Grant\’s club has been outplayed a lot over the past month. The Tide have lost four of their last five games, with just two more non-conference games left on the schedule.

Another week of the SEC Power Rankings, and another week of Florida sitting in the top spot.

1. Florida (-): The Gators lost to Arizona on Saturday, but that’s not enough to drop them from the top spot. Saturday’s letdown was the first time this defense allowed more than 1.0 points per possessions (1.08 PPP). Part of the reason Billy Donovan’s defense is so effective is because Florida doesn’t allow easy baskets.

Florida’s defensive summary for this season (credit: hoop-math.com)

Florida is only giving up 24 percent of opposing shots at the rim (tied for 20th in the nation), forcing opponents to take more difficult attempts. Our Freeze Frame edition from Tuesday shows how quickly the Florida defense is rotating to keep players from penetrating into the lane. And then of course if they make it to the rim, Patric Young is waiting for them with outstretched arms.

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There was no late game collapse Wednesday night for Florida. The Gators beat Southeastern Louisiana, 82-43. However, besides attendance numbers at the O’Connell Center, the topic of choice for Gator fans remains how frequently Billy Donovan’s squad has failed to close out close games. You may not have stayed up Saturday night to watch the fantastic duel between Arizona and Florida, but by now you’ve seen highlights of a Gator meltdown through disastrous inbounds plays and a host of other errors over the final two minutes of play. The Wildcats went on an 8-0 run during that spurt, calling into question the ability of the deeply talented Gators to come through in the clutch.

If you’re looking for a scapegoat for Florida’s clutch struggles, don’t blame this guy.

If you’re looking for a scapegoat for Florida’s clutch struggles, don’t blame this guy.

The Arizona debacle was the first and only clutch situation for the 2012-13 Gators, but a majority of the current players have been in tight games in the recent past. Florida led by 11 over Louisville in the Elite Eight last year before choking a Final Four appearance away. The Gators had Rutgers down by seven with just over two minutes to go in December 2012, but couldn’t hold on. And when a trend like this emerges, everyone looks for a scapegoat. If it isn’t the coach who takes the heat (hard to question a man with the track record Donovan has), it’s the guy who dribbles the ball off his foot, misses key free throws, or shoots ill-timed three pointers who will take the fall.

But you won’t find the coach blaming one of his players for the loss. Donovan says guard Kenny Boynton will continue to have the ball in his hands in the closing seconds. “I think obviously when you talk about a trend or a theme, it’s a pretty broad-based thing,” Donovan said. “If it was one specific thing where I think ‘Geez, this is really causing us a problem,’ but it’s been a lot of different things.” While some look at Boynton as the problem, an in-depth look at his statistics in clutch situations over the past two seasons leaves that theory slightly unfounded.

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As pointed out in the SEC Morning Five on Monday, Florida did a lot right in its close loss to Arizona on Saturday night. The positive play was overshadowed by the last minute of the game, but one minute of poor execution (REALLY poor execution!) does not a season make. Florida lost a true road game to a top 10 team by one point. In December. Not exactly symbolic of a collapse. But even in allowing 1.12 points per possession against the Wildcats, Florida flexed its muscles on defense. Arizona scored 16 points off the Gators’ 14 turnovers. But when UF was set in its half-court defense, the Wildcats struggled offensively. Not surprising, considering this is statistically the best Florida defensive team of the Billy Donovan era, including his championship teams of the mid-2000s. We looked at the last five years of defensive efficiency for the Gators, and threw in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 champions just for good measure:

Florida’s interior defense is among the best in Gators’ history, including the National Championship teams in 2006 and 2007.

The 2012-13 Gators are the best shot-blocking team since Donovan’s two National Championship clubs. They also have the lowest two-point field goal percentage defense, the lowest effective field goal percentage defense, and the highest defensive turnover percentage in the Donovan era. On Saturday night, Florida’s effectiveness was aided by changing its schemes throughout the contest. The Gators employed a man-to-man, 2-3 zone, and full court press, all with varying degrees of success. In this edition of Freeze Frame, we will take a look at what makes Florida’s defense so efficient.

Play 1 — 17:07 remaining in the first half

The Gators go to a man-to-man defense early in the contest. It is easy to see how the presence of shot-blocker extraordinaire Patric Young gives the defenders some leeway. Young is lurking down low in this series of plays ready to pounce on the first offensive player bold enough to challenge him. While Young is the biggest reason Florida’s D is effective, there are several other factors that make this one of the stingiest defenses in the country.

Florida playing a little man-to-man with a secret weapon in the middle.

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Kyle Wiltjer indicated he would be more aggressive after a 6-of-30 cold streak from beyond the arc, but he didn’t need to against Lipscomb on Saturday because the Bison left him wide open. He was 7-of-9 from behind the three-point line, scoring 23 points to lead the Cats to a demonstrative victory. Following UK’s victory previous over Portland, Wiltjer said he needed to do more to get open. “Trying to be more aggressive,” he said. “Trying to get easier baskets. Mix it up a little bit.” But the overarching question for Kentucky becomes: When Wiljter is closely guarded, can he adapt to become the offensive threat the Wildcats need in the half court set? We analyzed his game on Saturday for clues to whether Wiltjer can become more than simply a catch and shoot player.

Wiltjer Had a Bunch of These on Saturday

We tracked each of Wiltjer’s 12 shot attempts on Saturday with the result, whether the shot was open or contested, and how many dribbles Wiltjer used:

Each of Kentucky’s Kyle Wiltjer’s shot attempts on Saturday against Lipscomb.

Wiltjer is the definition of a “catch and shoot” player. So far this year, 64% of Wiltjer’s shot attempts have been three-point field goals. And at least on Saturday, who can fault him? Ten of his shot attempts were wide open. On the two contested attempts, Wiltjer adjusted with at least one dribble. With under 14 minutes remaining in the second half, a Lipscomb defender flew out to disrupt one of Wiltjer’s wide open three-point attempts. Wiltjer pumped fake before taking one dribble to avoid the defender. Several minutes later, Wiltjer put the ball on the floor again, this time dribbling twice for a crafty up-and-under move. He missed that attempt but displayed an ability to shake a defender by using the bounce in the process. Though this is an extremely small sample size, the information is important to serve as a baseline for what Wiltjer can do in a game against weaker competition when he is left wide open at the three-point line.

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Christian D’Andrea is a columnist for the Vanderbilt site Anchor of Gold and a weekly columnist for the SEC microsite.

It’s been a rough season in Starksville. Of course, losing your team’s top four players and the head coach who ran the team for more than a decade will lower expectations a bit. That’s what Mississippi State is going through right now. Former coach Rick Stansbury was dismissed this spring after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament in his last three years. That might have been excusable if Stansbury hadn’t been in charge of one of the NCAA’s most talented – but dysfunctional – rosters. The Bulldogs had high-level recruits like Renardo Sidney, Dee Bost, Rodney Hood, and Arnett Moultrie on their teams, but the only thing State had to show for it was a pair of NIT appearances and some embarrassing footage of Sidney fighting teammate Elgin Bailey in the stands at a preseason tournament.

Rick Ray stepped into a tough situation in Starkville.

Now, Mississippi State is smack-dab in the middle of a rebuilding phase that might carry into 2013-14 and beyond. The Bulldogs have plenty of work to do if they want to emerge as an upper-tier program in the SEC once again. In order to figure out just where new coach Rick Ray and his staff need to start, we turned to the experts. Braden Bishop is a contributor at the Mississippi State blog For Whom the Cowbell Tolls. He took some time to focus away from the Bulldogs’ upcoming Gator Bowl match-up to answer some questions about MSU’s outlook for the season. His answers are below:

Rush the Court: Mississippi State is going through a top-to-bottom rebuilding process in 2012-13. Not only are the Bulldogs replacing their four top scorers from last year, but they’ll do it without longtime coach Rick Stansbury. What can SEC fans expect out of State and new head coach Rick Ray this season?

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1. Billy “the Kid” is far from a youngster, as Donovan is the elder statesman of the SEC after 17 seasons with the Florida Gators. While he is an accomplished coach at the college level, he hasn’t shut the door on coaching in the NBA. “The one thing that I think is always intriguing the older I get is the fact that (the NBA) is just all about basketball. I love the practices, I love the games, I love doing individual instruction and breaking down tape and game planning and doing those things.” Donovan infamously left for the Orlando Magic in 2007 before ultimately returning to the Gators. Could a third National Championship complete this chapter of the book for Billy Donovan? It certainly isn’t out of the question though Donovan is under contract through 2015-16.
2. Will Florida go with a three-guard lineup? Or will it go big with a stronger frontline? Will the Gators play man-to-man defense? Or will they use their effective 2-3 zone? Florida’s versatility is one of its strengths as it prepares to travel to a top 10 team in Arizona. “There are some games where we’ve played small and moved (Erik) Murphy to the five (center) and (Casey) Prather to the four (power forward),” Donovan said. “I think a lot of it depends on fatigue, foul trouble, match-ups with the other team. So I think in certain situations a smaller lineup can look good, and in certain situations a bigger lineup can look good. I think it depends on what’s really going on during the game.” Arizona’s rather large frontcourt may dictate how the Gators play on Saturday. Patric Young, Florida’s starting center, stands at just 6’9″, but will be matched up with 7’0″ Wildcat freshman Kaleb Tarczewski. Donovan has to hope his team’s experience will win out over size.
3. Many have compared the 2012-13 Kentucky Wildcats to the 2010-11 version — after a slow start and multiple losses on the road, the Brandon Knight-led Kentucky team went to the Final Four in Houston only to lose to the eventual champs, Connecticut. But who can remember two years ago? Do the Cats compare to any teams from last year? Our friends at A Sea of Blue think the 2011-12 Florida Gators are the best comparison. By the end of December, the Gators had three losses including understandable road defeats to Ohio State and Syracuse, but also a puzzling loss to Rutgers, a team outside the top 100 (KenPom’s rankings). Florida eventually marched all the way to the Elite Eight before a loss to Final Four-bound Louisville. Kentucky fans might be pretty satisfied with that fate come March, with the exception of the whole losing to Louisville thing.
4. The hits keep on coming for the Alabama Crimson Tide, as the team has suffered another injury. This time, senior guard Andrew Steele is out four to six weeks with hernia surgery. This isn’t the first time Steele has had to deal with injuries. “He’s had his share of different injuries and different things that have come up over his career,” head coach Anthony Grant said. “He is looking forward to getting himself back to where he is able to play again and able to impact the game and help his teammates. I’m sure that he’ll do everything he can to recover as quickly as he can.” Steele is averaging just 4.2 points per game, but provides depth for Grant on what is becoming a very thin bench.
5. Coach Sean Miller has built Arizona into a national powerhouse once again. And the SEC’s Missouri Tigers are right there with the Wildcats. Luckily for college basketball fans who prefer quality basketball games in November and December rather than media stunts driven to draw TV attention, Arizona and Missouri have agreed to play a home-and-home series beginning in 2015-16. “This is a great series and will generate the type of national exposure fans and programs want early in the college basketball season,” Missouri coach Frank Haith said. “I have so much respect for Sean Miller and the Arizona program, and when you get two national brands playing in on-campus settings it’s great for all of college basketball.” Want to generate interest in college basketball prior to New Year’s Day? Continue to play games like this.