Selection Sunday Outlook for ACC Teams
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 13th, 2016A bunch of questions will be answered later this evening when the Selection Committee announces the 2016 NCAA Tournament field. From an ACC viewpoint, one of the big ones will be answered early in the Selection Show – did both league heavyweights (Virginia and North Carolina) earn #1 seeds? After the top seeds are announced and the rest of the bracket is revealed, ACC intrigue will shift towards the bubble, as Syracuse fans will be nervously watching to see if their team made the cut. With a special focus on those two situations, here’s a predictive peek at what Selection Sunday will hold for the ACC.
Who’s Number One?
Roy Williams and Tony Bennett each hope that their teams have earned a #1 Seed in the 2016 NCAA Tournament. (Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
- North Carolina (28-6) does not have the profile traditionally befitting a #1 seed (5-5 versus the RPI top 50), but the Tar Heels may have earned it with its performance over the weekend in Washington, DC. They say that the committee ignores conference records in leagues with unbalanced schedules, so the Tar Heels’ claim of winning both the regular season and tournament championships in the ACC shouldn’t guarantee a top line spot (see: Miami’s #2 seed after winning both crowns in 2013). But if the eye test is brought into play (and how can it not be?), there may have been no team in the country that looked as deserving as Roy Williams’ group. With that small boost from the eye test, we think North Carolina has done enough to warrant the second or third #1 seed, which means the Tar Heels will be sent to the East Region. That would give them a path through Raleigh (First/Second rounds) followed by Philadelphia — the easiest possible road. The other contenders for top seeds in the East — Virginia and Villanova — both stumbled in conference tournament finals yesterday. North Carolina is now ahead of both of those teams in the pecking order for preferred locations.
- Virginia (26-7) may have a resume better than any team in the country save Kansas. Despite an ACC Championship game loss to North Carolina, the Cavaliers have an impressive total of five wins over RPI top 10 teams. They have four losses to teams outside the RPI top 50, but all were close road defeats to conference foes. After the results of Saturday’s league championships, a reasonable ordering of #1 seed contenders might look like this: Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia. As the fourth #1 seed, Tony Bennett’s team would likely be sent to the South Region (Louisville regional), but that would remain the case only if Michigan State fails to win the Big Ten championship this afternoon. If the Spartans win today, we expect Virginia to end up as the South’s #2 seed, a possibility that could mean the Cavaliers are placed in the same region with Michigan State, their March nemesis — remember that Tom Izzo’s team has knocked Virginia out of the last two NCAA Tournaments. Either way, Virginia should be assured of joining North Carolina in Raleigh for the opening two rounds.
The Case For Syracuse
Jim Boeheim pleaded his team’s case for NCAA selection after losing to Pittsburgh in the ACC Tournament. (ESPN Video)
Syracuse put itself in jeopardy of not making the Big Dance when it fell to Pittsburgh in its ACC Tournament opener on Wednesday. Afterward, Jim Boeheim pleaded his case, urging the Selection Committee to show sympathy towards his players in arguing that the team should not be punished for having to play 10 games without him (NCAA mandated suspension). The Orange’s resume is not that great (9-12 versus the RPI top 150), but it compares favorably with some other major conference bubble teams like Michigan and Vanderbilt. The Wolverines are only 4-12 against the RPI top 100, while Vanderbilt went just 5-11 in games away from home. Syracuse has the best win (at Duke) among this trio of teams, but also the worst loss (at St. John’s by 12 points). That embarrassing defeat occurred during the Boeheim suspension, so if the Orange make the field, it may indicate that the Selection Committee chose to honor Boeheim’s plea for leniency.
Our Prediction: With the weak profiles described above, we think the Selection Committee will opt to leave out all those mediocre power conference teams and instead give the last at-large spots to mid-major schools like Wichita State, Monmouth and St. Mary’s. Therfore, expect Syracuse to find itself in the NIT bracket as a top seed.
Other NCAA Teams
- Miami (25-7) should receive a #3 seed and we expect the Hurricanes to be assigned to Providence for its First and Second round games. None of the regional round sites are close to south Florida, but Jim Larranaga’s experienced squad will be capable of beating anyone, anywehere. The Hurricanes’ location should be of little concern.
- Duke (23-10) has the profile of a #4 seed but the Selection Committee may drop the Blue Devils a line due to their sluggish recent play. Several other teams in the same general area of the bracket (Arizona, California, Purdue, Texas A&M, Indiana, Kentucky) are playing much better lately than Mike Krzyzewski’s squad.
- Notre Dame (21-11) had mixed results in the ACC Tournament; a big comeback win over Duke followed by embarrassing blowout loss to North Carolina. We think the Irish have done enough to claim a #6 seed but won’t be surprised if they end up a seed line or two lower.
- Pittsburgh (21-11) is another middle-of-the-pack team from a power conference with a mediocre resume. However, with the weakness at the bottom of the bracket this year, we think they will be safely in the field as a #9 seed.
NIT Bound?
In addition to Syracuse (if it doesn’t make the NCAA field), we expect at least two more ACC teams to be selected for the NIT. In order, we list the schools that have a chance to join the field of the oldest national postseason tournament.
- Florida State (19-13)
- Virginia Tech (19-14)
- Georgia Tech (18-14)
- Clemson (17-14)
