RTC Weekly Primer: Who Can Make a Run in March?
Posted by Henry Bushnell on February 24th, 2015It happens every year. Every single year. Okay, that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but more often than not, there comes a time in a college basketball season when the entire hoops world witnesses the birth of something. It can begin with a bang; but it can also begin innocuously. It can occur in plain sight; but it can also be the tree in the middle of a deserted forest. This birth, of course, is the preliminary stage of a postseason run. And the run, of course, is the one that in a few weeks time will be the talk of college basketball. Back in 2011, it was Shelvin Mack, Brad Stevens and Butler. In 2012, it was Lorenzo Brown and NC State. In 2013, it was very nearly Marshall Henderson and Ole Miss. A season ago, it was Jordan McRae and the upstart Tennessee Volunteers. NCAA Tournament runs usually don’t just appear out of thin air. Typically, there’s a backstory. In 2015, the time has come for those backstories to develop. Next month’s headlines will start formulating themselves right now.
Most Every Team is Looking For Its Butler Moment (USA Today Images)
Who will those headlines be written about this year? Who will be the team that sees everything come together at the right time? Who will be that team? It’s time to start considering some possibilities:
- Georgetown – The Hoyas aren’t exactly in the same category as the Butlers and Ole Misses of years past, but they seem to be flying somewhat under the radar. Georgetown has the pieces to make a run. The Hoyas are a top-20 defensive team, boast an occasionally dominant post presence in senior center Josh Smith, and have a guard in D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera who can take over a game. After getting smoked by Villanova a couple weeks ago, they’ve now won three straight and have the week off to prepare for St. John’s in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. That’s the kind of win that could propel the Hoyas to a #4 or #5 seed and their first Sweet Sixteen (or better) run since 2007.
- Indiana – Another team that is solidly in the NCAA Tournament, the Hoosiers certainly will never be considered a Cinderella story. But most projections have them as a #8 or #9 seed right now, meaning they aren’t being discussed as a legitimate contender either. This team has notable flaws in its personnel and it has a coach who many have questioned in recent years. But it’s also arguably got the most lethal backcourt in the country — just the type of thing that can carry a team on a surprising journey through March. The Hoosiers, which have struggled on the road but have been dynamite at home, travel to Northwestern on Wednesday night before a two-game home swing featuring Iowa and Michigan State. It’s really the perfect slate to build some March momentum.
- Oregon – After a massive win over Utah that likely vaulted the Ducks onto the right side of the bubble, Oregon looks dangerous. Its always been a streaky bunch but Dana Altman’s team has now won eight of its last 10 games. They have one experienced star, Joseph Young, supported by tremendous depth and a group of enthusiastic and athletic supplementary players. However, the big impediment to the theory that the run starts now might be Oregon’s remaining schedule. It features three tough road games over an eight-day span. We’ll see if Dana Altman’s team can keep things rolling.
- NC State – It seems like the Wolfpack have had a habit of BEING THE EXACT SAME TEAM EVERY YEAR since Mark Gottfried took over in Raleigh. Here’s the familiar story: A decently talented roster doesn’t gel as well as it should, or at least doesn’t do so consistently; big-time wins are invariably followed by inexplicable losses; there is bubble talk, sometimes even bubble trouble; there are two ACC Tournament wins that punch a ticket to the Big Dance; and there is a team that looks like it could cause some trouble when it gets there. The 2015 edition of the Wolfpack is another one of those teams. And every once in a while, there are flashes of that 2012 group that was just a few plays away from the Elite Eight.
- St. John’s – The general perception of the Red Storm is that they’re too talented to be a bubble team. That naturally means that there’s hope that Steve Lavin’s group could finally put it all together at any given moment. There have been countless examples over the years of that hope fizzling out, but something tells me this St. John’s team is molded a bit differently. The Red Storm have won five of their last six games, including a grind-out win against Xavier on Monday night. Both Georgetown and Villanova lie ahead of St. John’s before the Big East Tournament, but if the Johnnies’ main five can find a groove, watch out.
Keep an Eye on Kevon Looney and UCLA Over the Next Few Weeks (USA Today Images)
- UCLA – Many analysts left UCLA for dead back in December and January. Heck, I certainly did, but the Bruins have turned things around. They’ve got an intriguing blend of youth and experience, and it always helps to have freakish athletes like Kevon Looney. Furthermore, they’ve got three games remaining, all of which are against non-top-100 teams and all of which are at home. Three wins plus some Pac-12 Tournament success could result in the Bruins peaking at the right time. This just seems like a situation where UCLA’s talent in its starting five could eventually shine through, and Steve Alford could prove his many doubters wrong once again.
- Kansas State – So yeah, Monday night was crazy. But you know what’s even crazier? Kansas State’s résumé. I’m not sure I can recall a team that has had seven top-50 wins (with a chance for a few more) and that so thoroughly passed the ‘eye test’ on some nights, but also had a losing conference record. That’s the situation for Bruce Weber and his enigmatic team. Prior to the big win over Kansas, the Wildcats had somehow lost seven of their last eight games. They’ve proven that they can hang with anybody in the Big 12 on the right day, and thus with almost anybody in the country. They still have a lot of work to do to get into the field of 68, of course, but if they somehow do, they’re as dangerous a #11 or #12 seed as any.
Time to Study Up
Every Monday, when I dive into this column, I start by exploring the upcoming week’s schedule and making a list of all the notable games in addition to the marquee ones. That list is looooooong this week, particularly on Saturday, perhaps longer than at any other time this season. Every potential postseason team will be put under the microscope and we’ll learn a lot about the college basketball landscape as we approach March. So why not just present some of those games — the most important ones — as your study materials for this week. You’ll enter March with an excellent grasp of things if you can check in on a bunch of these. Good luck.
Tuesday
Maryland Needs to Find Its Mojo Again (USA Today Images)
- Providence at Villanova – The Friars probably won’t win this game, but they’re a near-lock for the NCAA Tournament that not many people are talking about. Can they hang with a top 10 team on the road?
- Wisconsin at Maryland – The Terps have looked shaky for about a month now and appear ripe for a potential #4/#13 or #5/#12 upset in March. Melo Trimble and friends need to rediscover their December and early January form.
- Texas at West Virginia – The more you study Texas’ résumé, the more underwhelming it looks. If something doesn’t change soon, the Longhorns could be staring at a 7-11 or even a 6-12 conference record, and major bubble trouble. That’s shocking for a team with this much talent.
- NC State at North Carolina – As discussed above, NC State could really use a win like this. I think this ends up being the game of the night.
Wednesday
- VCU at Richmond – A big rivalry game, and another opportunity to get a read on VCU without Briante Weber. The Rams have won three straight, but I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from them.
- Baylor at Iowa State – The mid-week headliner. Suddenly, an Iowa State win brings the Cyclones even with Kansas atop the Big 12. And what’s more, the respective schedules favor the Cyclones.
Friday
- Valparaiso at Cleveland State – Valpo is that team that everybody will be picking to beat a #4 seed in the first round. Before you do that, watch this game to find out if you actually think the Crusaders are any good (hint: they are, especially on the defensive end).
Saturday
- Georgetown at St. John’s – See above.
- Louisville at Florida State – So… uh… Louisville is kind of bad right now. It’s almost time for Cardinals fans to panic. Saturday brings a classic ACC road test in Tallahassee, and a chance to quell some of those growing fears.
- Northern Iowa at Wichita State – The Shockers aren’t the same team that they were as last year, and as Jay Bilas has been endlessly repeating, Northern Iowa is the real deal. A road win — and thus a Missouri Valley title — would earn the Panthers loads of respect.
- Villanova at Xavier – Villanova still could throw a wrench in the committee’s #1 seed decision-making process. I’m not sure anybody believes the Wildcats are one of the four best teams in the country, but when’s the last time a résumé like theirs would be got left off the top line? First things first, though, Jay Wright and his players have to take care of business here, and that’s no easy task at Xavier.
- Dayton at VCU – More havoc study material to get your hands on, plus a chance to get a read on a Dayton team that I’m not sure many have closely considered but should be a Tournament team.
- West Virginia at Baylor – I’m going to make a statement that I think might shock some people: I think Baylor is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Prove me wrong, Bears.
- Iowa State at Kansas State – Huge opportunities for both teams — for one to push Kansas for a conference title; for another to find its way back to bubble contention.
- Arkansas at Kentucky – The SEC’s last shot? Not quite — Kentucky’s final week is tough — but the Razorbacks are the conference’s second-best team. John Calipari’s crew will be double-figure favorites here, though.
- Arizona at Utah – This was no contest back in January in Tucson. More of the same this time around? I’d think not, but I’m still not sold on the Utes.
- BYU at Gonzaga – The WCC’s last shot? Well yeah, seeing as how only BYU is standing in the way of Gonzaga and a second perfect conference record in three years. Plus, some still seem to think BYU is a bubble team, although I’m not sure why. Oh, and also… Gonzaga might put up 100.
Sunday
- Michigan State at Wisconsin – Michigan State is one of the toughest teams to figure out this season. Yes, Izzo, and yes, experience, and yes, they’re always good… but yes, Texas Southern, and yes, Nebraska, and yes, Illinois. The Spartans probably won’t beat Wisconsin here, but if they’ve turned a corner over the past four games, they should be able to stick with the Badgers.
- Purdue at Ohio State – Purdue is going to make the NCAA Tournament after having lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb at home… and without anybody knowing whether the Boilermakers are actually any good.
