ATB: Cardinals Fall, Wake Nips NC State and Kentucky’s Waning NCAA Tournament Hopes…
Posted by Chris Johnson on January 23rd, 2013
Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.
Tonight’s Lede. Not Many Games, But A Lot Of Action. You may have looked at tonight’s hoops lineup and come to the quick conclusion that there were bigger and more important things to put on your television this evening. If that’s the case, I apologize for your misfortune, because you missed one of the best pound-for-pound weekday nights of the regular season. In total, 14 games were played. That is not a lot of games – at a glance, it fit the customary boring-Monday-night profile. But it was the ratio of quality to volume that made Tuesday night’s schedule special. We had a big upset in the ACC, a really tight SEC finish, two really nice wins from Big Ten teams of near-equal standing, a shocker in the Big East, and a reaffirmation of everything we already knew to be true about Big 12 basketball. All packaged tidily within the construct of a 14-game schedule.
Your Watercooler Moment. Cardinals Drop Second Straight.
Two straight losses has Louisville reeling as it hits a tough stretch of conference play (Photo credit: AP Photo).
When Louisville fell at home Saturday to Syracuse, college basketball fans nationwide let out a collective sigh. Don’t get me wrong: Beating the No. 1 team in the country is huge news for the Orange, and it might go down as the most important win of any team this season. But for Louisville, once you got past the initial disappointment of losing the No. 1 ranking, it wasn’t all that hard to fathom Syracuse pulling out a win against the nation’s best team. The Orange could, in fact, earn that same honor at some point this season. Michael Carter-Williams is an excellent basketball player. Boeheim’s 2-3 zone has spooked more than a few teams over the last 30-plus years. Louisville would lick its wounds, roll out the nation’s best defense (the Cardinals entered Tuesday allowing 0.81 points per possession) and stomp on Villanova in a vengeful, cathartic rout at the Wells Fargo Center. Instead, the Wildcats picked up a win they badly needed. They forced Louisville into 17 turnovers (up five from its season average), exploited its foul trouble by hitting 22-of-29 free throws and got a huge inside performance from JayVaughn Pinkston. Pinkston’s 11-point, six-rebound line won’t strike you as anything particularly noteworthy, but he was the perfect counter to Louisville’s loaded frontcourt, for a team that’s struggled to get consistent interior play all season long. Until things really spiral out of control for the Cardinals, I’m willing to give them a pass – teams are just as vulnerable (or nearly so) coming off big wins as they are big losses. Saturday’s trip to Georgetown will test Louisville’s mental resolve, not to mention their defensive ability, but unless the Cardinals’ struggles persist into February, Tuesday night’s loss will be remembered more as Villanova’s at-large clincher, or just a really nice moment for a struggling program. It says here that Louisville remains Final Four material.
Also Worth Chatting About. Court Rushings Becoming Familiar For NC State.
Ten days ago, NC State caught a Ryan Kelly-less Duke team at the right spot and the right time. In a frenzied PNC Arena, the surging Wolfpack – who for the past few weeks fell out of national favor after a couple non-conference losses killed NC State’s preseason hype train – upended the then-No. 1 Blue Devils. Hundreds of jubilant red-clad fans rushed the court (one notable fan wheelchaired his way onto the floor). C.J. Leslie and company basked in the glory. NC State had arrived. The Wolfpack then voyaged to Maryland, where the Terrapins were looking to do unto NC State exactly what NC State did to Duke four days earlier. College Park is no safe haven for traveling ACC teams, and the Wolfpack came up short. The resulting court rushing was debated vigorously on Twitter; but still, it happened. The Wolfpack had come full circle – from the pinnacle of happiness to the victim of another fan base’s joy. NC State had experienced quite enough floor celebrations of late. You could understand coach Mark Gottfried getting fed up with all this emotional noise, both in support of and against his team. The floor-rushing party continued Tuesday night in Winston-Salem. Wake Forest – long the bottom of most every ACC fan’s bar room jokes – actually did something of merit (backhanded compliment? You bet) under third-year coach Jeff Bdzelik by treating the visiting Pack to another RTC. These celebrations were already getting old for NC State. After being court-rushed twice, and having their own fans rush the court just once all in the last week and change, the practice must feel nauseating.
(A note: please do watch the above video. It brings you right into the celebration, with a unique hands-on-deck camera angle)
Tonight’s Quick Hits…
- Book It: Kansas Is Your 2013 Big 12 Regular Season Champion. For the past eight years, we’ve come to rely on a few things about college basketball’s major conferences. One of the most reliable is Kansas winning the Big 12 championship (either outright or shared) every year, without fail, turning over loads of NBA talent and All-Americans along the way. That is the baseline for success under Bill Self, and after tonight’s win over K-State at Bramlage Coliseum – in which the Jayhawks grappled with their opponent’s physicality for 40 minutes – I’m ready to make the following statement with complete and utter finality: Kansas will be your 2013 Big 12 champion. I could have said as much weeks ago, but I couldn’t be completely sure then. Not before seeing the Jayhawks so coolly and so clinically stroll into one of the nation’s toughest venues and scrap out another victory. There may be a few hiccups between now and March, but only a serious injury (or two) or some other set of extenuating circumstances could possibly deter the inevitable. Nine years, nine regular season trophies. Book it.
- Pittsburgh Settling Into Conference Play. The gap between Pittsburgh’s non-conference body of work – the Panthers entered Big East play 12-1 with nary an impressive win to rest on – and its adjusted tempo-free profile (ranked #9 in KenPom) caused hoops writers, including yours truly, to ramble on about just how underrated the Panthers were and about how dangerous they could be as a realistic Big East challenger. A 1-3 conference start triggered doubts, but in the end, we stuck to our tempo-free guns and waited for Pittsburgh to spread its wings and morph into the two-way juggernaut painted by Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency metrics database. Jamie Dixon’s team isn’t quite there yet, but Tuesday night’s win at Providence was the Panthers’ third victory in a row. In the Big East, where surprises await at every stop, any winning streak is a streak worth talking about. Pittsburgh gets a tune-up game Saturday with DePaul before taking on a scuttling Louisville team at the Yum! Center next Tuesday.
- Two Good B1G Teams, Two Good B1G Wins. There have been various points this season at which Ohio State and Michigan State have been discounted as realistic players in the Big Ten title discussion. The way Michigan is playing lately, it’s safe to say that unless the Wolverines miraculously fall off the map, they are the prohibitive title favorite. So yeah, maybe the Buckeyes and Spartans fall a notch below John Beilein’s team, but these kinds of wins – OSU handled Iowa at home, while MSU won at Wisconsin on Tuesday night – will keep the pair near the top of the nation’s toughest league into March. Michigan State’s victory, at a rugged and altogether inhospitable Kohl Center, looks prettier, but beating Iowa – the 2012-13 version – is a much bigger feat than hoops fan X might be led to believe. The questions raised about both Michigan State and Ohio State earlier this season were, in hindsight, probably a bit too panicky.
…and Misses.
- Missouri Misses Laurence Bowers. In the days since Laurence Bowers was ruled inactive with a knee injury, Missouri has gotten blown out at Ole Miss, handled Georgia at home, crashed and burned at Florida and, on Tuesday, barely escaped disaster against South Carolina. Earnest Ross provided the necessary push to get by Frank Martin’s team, but the win raised some red flags. It underscored how badly the Tigers need their best frontcourt player on the floor at all costs. You can point to the Tigers’ woeful three-point shooting (5-of-27) or Alex Oriakhi’s 18/11 double-double as a sign that Mizzou can manage the low block without Bowers’ services. But until the do-it-all senior forward returns, the Tigers are limited in what they can do on the offensive end of the floor. Earnest Ross isn’t giving you 21 points and 10 rebounds on a nightly basis. Nor is Oriakhi the SEC’s next coming of Anthony Davis. Missouri needs Bowers back, and fast.
- Wildcats On Thin Tourney Ice. It’s January 22, just about two weeks into the rigors of conference play, and already I’m starting to really doubt Kentucky’s ability to piece together enough resume heft for a credible NCAA at-large profile. The Wildcats were already on NIT watch heading into SEC play, and they’ve only hurt their fortunes since with losses to Texas A&M and at Alabama (Tuesday night). Of Kentucky’s remaining SEC games, only four – at Ole Miss, a home-and-home with Florida, and at home versus Missouri – classify as top 50 RPI wins, and the Wildcats need to win at least two (maybe three) to be on firm ground heading into Selection Sunday. Based off the way the Wildcats have dropped the ball against mediocre SEC teams already, they don’t have a prayer against the league’s elite. And that’s assuming Kentucky stays clean the rest of the way – any losses outside the aforementioned four games would really dent their March chances.
Dunkdafied. This was a pretty rough night for the #BBN. The Wildcats are fading fast. But, hey, look at the bright side — at least you’re not Alabama center Moussa Gueye, otherwise known as Nerlens Noel’s personal dunk prop.
Tuesday Night’s All-Americans.
- Devin Thomas, Wake Forest (NPOY) – If not for Thomas’ 25 points, 14 rebounds, four blocks and three steals, I find it hard to believe the Deacs could have pulled the upset tonight.
- Earnest Ross, Missouri – The transfer class Frank Haith pulled together is one of the best to hit college hoops in years. Ross, an Auburn import, helped Missouri avoid embarrassment at home by scoring 21 points and collecting 10 rebounds.
- Keith Appling, Michigan State – Playing Wisconsin in any environment is a chore. Doing it at the Kohl Center, and winning in the process, is painfully fulfilling. Appling led the way for the Spartans with 19 points and six assists.
- D.J. Richardson, Illinois – Look! It’s Illinois, winning basketball games! Richardson’s 30 points helped the Illini snap a three-game skid at Nebraska.
- Alex Len, Maryland – NBA scouts drool over Len’s length and athleticism, but as a college player, he hasn’t quite met the hype. Sixteen points and 13 rebounds for the Terrapins’ big man in a home win over Boston College.
Tweet of the night. Whatever NC State freshman forward T.J. Warren thought about Devin Thomas heading into Tuesday night’s game – apparently, not much – his opinion has changed.
“I’d never heard of him until today,” N.C. State’s T.J. Warren on Wake Forest’s Devin Thomas, who had 25 and 14 against the #Wolfpack.
— Stephen Schramm (@stephenschramm) January 23, 2013
My name is Chris Johnson and I'm a national columnist here at RTC, the co-founder of Northwestern sports site Insidenu.com and a freelance contributor to SI.com.
